Search found 34421 matches

by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 34
Views: 1311

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

Offshoring has kept prices down for many years. When the second and third world export inflation, we're in trouble. (adjusts tinfoil hat) Government has a vested interest in under reporting inflation. Otherwise, they'd pay more to fund the debt, and for SS/Medicare. Why do you think the tax code sw...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 34
Views: 1311

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

Technology allowed us to build bigger faster cars but that does not reduce inflation. It does if the cars require less fuel and less maintenance than the cars they replaced. Not only that, but cars last a lot longer. When I started driving, it was very unusual for a car to reach 100,000 miles. Now ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average
Replies: 46
Views: 4390

Re: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average

I thought Jack Welch was a genious. What happened? DMW It might have all been luck. Or rather, what he did worked when he did it, but other companies caught up. The world moved on. Everybody learned 6 sigma quality control, everyone delayered management and cut costs. It's also clear the company be...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average
Replies: 46
Views: 4390

Re: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average

General Electric is just another example of a company in decline, often the result of poor management decisions, misdirection, and inattentiveness. A great example of specific company risk that is mitigated in index funds through broad diversification. Or lazy, disengaged employees. Culture flows f...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average
Replies: 46
Views: 4390

Re: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average

It's a bit difficult to consider GE as a strictly U.S. company anymore, and thus a reflection of the U.S. economy. 62% of sales, 50% of assets, and 66% of employees were outside of the United States in 2017, according to a recent United Nations report . But also true of Google, Pfizer, JP Morgan, D...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 34
Views: 1311

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

I don't believe that true inflation is low. While majority of 'goods' can be seen as much cheaper, which can probably attribute that to technology. 'Services' are not. That in itself deserves at study but in my eyes policy seems to be the driving factor. And you will find that the Bureau of Labor S...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 34
Views: 1311

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

And airline deregulation has made importing cheap labor from anywhere economical. Inflation was also called the wage/price spiral. Low wages = low prices = low inflation. Since relatively few people who fly are going to do work in another country for significant periods of time, I don't follow that...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 34
Views: 1311

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

I have given a lot of thought to why we have been in a period of low inflation for some time and I came to the conclusion that it is primarily because technology has advanced so rapidly in recent years and has made some industries obsolete while greatly reducing the profits in others thereby passin...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 34
Views: 1311

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

Technology allowed us to build bigger faster cars but that does not reduce inflation. It does if the cars require less fuel and less maintenance than the cars they replaced. Maybe. When fuel prices drop - either directly by lower prices or indirectly by better mileage, people drive more. And the ca...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 34
Views: 1311

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

I don't believe that true inflation is low. While majority of 'goods' can be seen as much cheaper, which can probably attribute that to technology. 'Services' are not. That in itself deserves at study but in my eyes policy seems to be the driving factor. And you will find that the Bureau of Labor S...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1107
Views: 86329

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

I would disagree that some mega company would need to come over Tesla like a wave to usurp them. Many electric and hybrid cars currently exist within model lineups that nobody seems to ever talk about. Golf e, Honda Clarity, going into the hybrid line, cmax, camry..... It's just that everyone seems...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy
Replies: 63
Views: 3472

Re: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy

At this point, it will make almost no difference to your final returns. 12.5% in bond fund has a very small impact on the total portfolio. Agreed, the benefit is mainly psychological (e.g. both of them may be green, or one if e.g. treasury has a problem). Also if X-Trackers would mess up somehow, I...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1107
Views: 86329

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

It appears to me Tesla has gotten over the hump. They are here for the long haul. The cash flow profile still looks horrendous. This is a company that is based on hope value. They have to keep moving that end-of-road forward as they catch up to it (burn through cash)-- they are extending the road e...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy
Replies: 63
Views: 3472

Re: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy

I'm changing my mind again, and now plan to end up with 50% DBZB (Xetra) and 50% AGGH (LSE). Adding AGGH lowers my TER and increases my diversification (whilst DBZB reduces my exposure to corporate). Long-term it should provide slightly better return. The Vanguard fund alternative ( IE00BGCZ0933 ) ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy
Replies: 63
Views: 3472

Re: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy

I have been struggling with choosing a bond ETF recently and this discussion was extremely helpful. Thank you, everyone! As a European citizen, I will likely choose the Euro hedged version of iShares Global Aggregate Bond ETF. According to the iShares UK website, it is listed on the London Stock Ex...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accounting for various forms of equity
Replies: 10
Views: 451

Re: Accounting for various forms of equity

Use the Black Scholes formula. There are online calculators. You are going to need to estimate the volatility of the stock. One of the assumptions of Black Scholes is that they are not paying a divined and you can only exercise at expiration. I assume this is a intellectual exercise to give a ball ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Shorting Amazon
Replies: 44
Views: 3909

Re: Shorting Amazon

I am getting the itch to short Amazon. I have been watching it for a while and now that it has crossed 1700, I don't really see much upside in that stock. Don't get me wrong - they have done well and are a highly inventive company. However, their valuation and future growth required to be anywhere ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Shorting Amazon
Replies: 44
Views: 3909

Re: Shorting Amazon

There’s no stopping Amazon. You may get lucky if there’s a black swan event in which entire market goes down and a mass exodus happens to Amazon. That said I’m hoping for it to fall like there’s no tomorrow so i can get in.... but sadly the wishes don’t always cone true. At the valuation Amazon is ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Supermarket are you?
Replies: 152
Views: 6989

Re: Which Supermarket are you?

The responses in this thread (when there are enough of them) should likely end up representing the market share of each of the supermarkets in the US. I doubt it. Bogleheads tend to be more frugal. I suspect Whole Foods, Marianos, and the like to be underrepresented. But also tend to be upper middl...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Shorting Amazon
Replies: 44
Views: 3909

Re: Shorting Amazon

Don't short Amazon. In the tail end of a bull run, people sell their losers and buy the high fliers (usually mega cap tech/internet). Amazon may not deserve a more outrageous PE ratio, but the market is getting out of whack. You are more likely than not to lose shorting Amazon. There's a lot of tru...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equity Offer
Replies: 8
Views: 869

Re: Equity Offer

I recently got an equity offer email. it says recieve upto 20% of your home equity value without making any monthly payments. with no interest charges and no added debit and you dont need to pay us back until you decide to sell your home or for upto 30 years. when you sell you give original amount ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details
Replies: 118
Views: 9342

Re: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details

We are all persuadable - or at least if there are people who are not, they are very rare indeed. DO NOT assume you are bulletproof (one reason they like people to come with their spouses is they only have to persuade the weaker link-- most of us are more vulnerable to suasion if our spouses are per...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details
Replies: 118
Views: 9342

Re: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details

They buy you lunch to make you feel obligated. You feel like you are held hostage, they call in the supervisor to double team you. They hold any free-bee's until after they convince you to buy. Why would eating a free lunch make you feel obligted to buy anything? As for the double-teaming, it would...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3639

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

Well - 3.33% is less than 4% so already very conservative. Do you adjust the withdrawal to account for inflation - or does it stay fixed? Do you recalculate every year? Do I get to take 5% 10 years into my 30 year retirement? As far as I know the 4% number was never claimed to be valid for a global...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: “Day to kill” in Venice Italy
Replies: 50
Views: 2995

Re: “Day to kill” in Venice Italy

Hello all We are on our last night in Venice and headed to Florence tomorrow. So far, frankly, it’s been pretty rough. Jet lag is real! We are over that though thank goodness. I knew traveling with heavily Americanized (if there is such a term) teenagers was going to present challenges. That said, ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 4982

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

There is certainly a market for secure, purely digital payment methods, and Bitcoin was developed with that in mind from the beginning. Who can say if Bitcoin ever ends up fulfilling that role. The odds are probably against it, but if it happens, every household in the world is going to need to hav...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illiquid Assets - Volatility
Replies: 4
Views: 461

Re: Illiquid Assets - Volatility

So in illiquid assets, such as direct real estate, alternative lending, and reinsurance, what's the effect of stale pricing on volatility smoothing and correlations? I know AQR made this point about hedge funds in the past: https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/Do-Hedge-Funds-Hedge,...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New refrigerator issues
Replies: 18
Views: 1596

Re: New refrigerator issues

Great information. It still is too loud though. Has anyone noticed the newer refrigerators running louder than older ones? In 2005 I replaced a refrigerator from the 60's. I was shocked by how loud the new one was. It literally woke me up at night. There was nothing wrong with it and I got used to ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Basic Inflation Questions
Replies: 21
Views: 1057

Re: Basic Inflation Questions

I'm trying to understand basic inflation. I think I'm on the right track but I want to make sure. I can find the current inflation here: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi I have a hard time understanding what this means. In May it says it was 2.8%. What does this mean for my ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mercantil Bank CD?
Replies: 3
Views: 236

Re: Mercantil Bank

Would you have any concern about buying a brokered CD from Mercantil Bank? I know it would be FDIC insured. OTOH, its parent company is in Venezuela. that, alone, would make me stay away. It's quite possible that I am overly cautious, that any risk to the depositor is covered off by FDIC. Does the ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?
Replies: 25
Views: 1920

Re: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?

So for me the question remains what is a meaningful "mean" to which global markets might "revert"? Not sure your question is answerable, without false precision. All we can say, based on the historical record, is that global stock returns have been fairly sensitive to the rate of global aggregate G...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?
Replies: 25
Views: 1920

Re: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?

SimpleGift Thanks for posting the charts. They are helpful. My concern regarding the use of long time spans for comparison purposes is that we have experienced a fair amount of technological advancement and globalization over the past 50 years. I don't mean to say that "this time is different" in t...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New refrigerator issues
Replies: 18
Views: 1596

Re: New refrigerator issues

We just bought a new refrigerator and having issues with it. We contacted the manufacturer and will be having someone come by. Since repair technicians generally aren't always reliable I wanted to get some advice somewhere else and see if anyone has had a similar experience. This is the refrigerato...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK resident non-dom: what's best investment location?
Replies: 46
Views: 2954

Re: UK resident non-dom: what's best investment location?

Hello! I hope you won't mind me piggyback riding on the back of this post, but my questions are directly related to a lot of things covered in this post, namely all the rules related to being a UK resident non-dom. I moved to the UK a year ago and will soon be filing my first tax return. Given my l...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheap, fuel efficient 2nd car commuting?
Replies: 17
Views: 1408

Re: Cheap, fuel efficient 2nd car commuting?

My daily driver is newer (paid for) truck averaging about 18 miles per gallon (city/highway). I was averaging about 10,000 miles per year with this truck so depreciation and fuel expenses were not that big of a concern for me. Due to an unexpected but good job change, I am now anticipate driving ab...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 2463

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

Late post to this, but has anyone compared holding a mix of Global All Cap https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/vanguard-ftse-global-all-cap-index-fund-gbp-accumulation-shares and Global Bond hedged to GBP https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/o/fpd9/vanguard-global-bond-index-hedged-acc-gb...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [UK] Confused about Stocks and Shares LISA
Replies: 1
Views: 125

Re: [UK] Confused about Stocks and Shares LISA

I'm looking to drip-feed invest about £30K into Vanguard LS 80/100 over the next few years, leaving £15K in cash. I'm 25 and make about £25K at the moment, which should rise steadily. My main goal is funding my children's education in 20 years, however I also want to buy a small property at some po...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?
Replies: 15
Views: 1774

Re: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?

I would argue unskilled rather than skilled labour. Skilled labour is anything but in infinite supply. What became possible was a car assembled in Mexico of Chinese parts, or the mass migration of consumer goods production to China, which had a virtually infinite supply of biddable labour. Skilled ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?
Replies: 25
Views: 1056

Re: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?

I don't really get why the media fixates on what seems like an antiquated and arbitrary heuristic versus something like the S&P 500. It is a bit irritating and is just an artifact of history. Much like the U.S. not adopting the metric system, despite it being the global standard these days. :annoye...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details
Replies: 118
Views: 9342

Re: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details

Unwise me.. I got one for 14k Exchanges with RCI are twice the price that what I pay on maintenance and fees Trying to sell it now. Best offer I got was by the TS company. 0$ but they pay the charges. Sell. Just close the liability off. Zero is a great price if it frees you from future liability (t...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details
Replies: 118
Views: 9342

Re: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details

Howdy, In FL cocoa beach. Offered a timeshare for 44K upfront (payment options etc) plus annual maintainence fees around 1500. Was 'No' from me to quickly collect $250 ish cash bonus. I cant think of great reasons to ever get a timeshare...my questions: 1. If you like your timeshare, what were you ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details
Replies: 118
Views: 9342

Re: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details

Two caution (UK situation): -you might not be able to sell -you might be stuck with annual charge forever (death might not be the end, your heir may be settled with the continual liability) Wow. I would assume in the US an heir could simply disclaim the inheritance of that property. Is that not pos...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 4982

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

Do you think the environmental aspects of the mining and transaction processing would eventually become too great for the world to tolerate? Maybe in the future instead of electric heaters people will just have mining rigs and heat their house with the waste heat... There are ways (eg Proof of Stak...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 2463

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

Late post to this, but has anyone compared holding a mix of Global All Cap https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/vanguard-ftse-global-all-cap-index-fund-gbp-accumulation-shares and Global Bond hedged to GBP https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/o/fpd9/vanguard-global-bond-index-hedged-acc-gb...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 2463

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

Late post to this, but has anyone compared holding a mix of Global All Cap https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/vanguard-ftse-global-all-cap-index-fund-gbp-accumulation-shares and Global Bond hedged to GBP https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/o/fpd9/vanguard-global-bond-index-hedged-acc-gb...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 2463

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

Late post to this, but has anyone compared holding a mix of Global All Cap https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/vanguard-ftse-global-all-cap-index-fund-gbp-accumulation-shares and Global Bond hedged to GBP https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/o/fpd9/vanguard-global-bond-index-hedged-acc-gb...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?
Replies: 16
Views: 1272

Re: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?

At the risk of a very troubled pot (British ) calling a Swedish kettle dirty*, Sweden has undergone quite sweeping social and economic changes in the last 20 years. I am assuming that you keep in touch with the country on a regular basis, but you might find "you can't go home again". This is a bit ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rate Differential: The case for currency hedging
Replies: 2
Views: 263

Re: Interest Rate Differential: The case for currency hedging

Hi! As I understand, hedging a currency "costs" the differential between interest rates. Currently this differential is near 3% between EUR and USD so if you hedge the S&P 500 from USD to EUR you are "loosing" nearly 3% (without taking into account USD/EUR movements). https://i.imgur.com/agFKj9i.pn...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?
Replies: 16
Views: 1272

Re: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?

We live in Switzerland (HCOL) and are thinking about retiring to Sweden (LCOL). We have a young family and 1M Euro in taxable accounts. We should be able to safely withdraw close to the median income in LCOL areas of Sweden (e.g. Lund) from our portfolio if we invest in a tax-efficient "ISK" accoun...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?
Replies: 16
Views: 1272

Re: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?

Are you from this low-cost area of Sweden? Do you have friend and relatives there? GIven the way you phrase it, it doesn't really seem like it, which to me is maybe a little strange. If not, maybe you are choosing things from too strictly a financial perspective. My guess is that even non-central S...