Search found 32240 matches

by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Flooded out subdivision
Replies: 17
Views: 1366

Re: Flooded out subdivision

^A difference between Queens / Long Island and Houston is that they are not making any more land in the New York area, so that one cannot move outward and build. In the Houston area, there are plenty of places on higher ground to start fresh from. I would not be surprised if Houston and Dallas meet...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Spray Foam Insulation
Replies: 19
Views: 1623

Re: Spray Foam Insulation

Thanks for the feedback everyone. Regarding the air ventilation, I know the HVAC system comes with a fresh air intake. I've also been reading about the ERV/HRV systems, but this is all fairly new to me. Does anyone know how a fresh air intake compares to the ERV/HRV methods of ventilation? It seems...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 78
Views: 3044

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

Uh, two gigantic companies can cooperate on price you know that right? I'm sure Vanguard can do it cheaper like they almost always do when they enter a market. Would you agree that fees are lower for equity funds than if we lived in a world with no Vanguard? They could deal with the issues of stora...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 51
Views: 2190

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

Saying that you are going to overweight or underweight a sector is the same as saying that you know more than the market. Doesn't every trader on, both sides of the trade, think this? The only winners are the market makers. And home heating switching to gas (longer term, the pipes had to be laid). ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 51
Views: 2190

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

As for the oil majors...if oil doesn't recover to $80 soon, we will see some big writedowns...and diferent companies will be in different standing at that point. $50 is the new normal, fracking becomes very profitable above that price and as long as Pennsylvania and Texas don't become part of OPEC ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 51
Views: 2190

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

The current price of oil company and oil service sector stocks factors in everything you mentioned and much more. Saying that you are going to overweight or underweight a sector is the same as saying that you know more than the market. No offense, but I find that unlikely. My advice is to just buy ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 78
Views: 3044

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

If anyone high up at Vanguard reads this, could you please consider launching a gold ETF similar to GLD and IAU? The fees in this space are relatively high at (.4% and .25% for the prior two mentioned funds) and could greatly use Vanguard's razor thin fee competition. The precious metals fund curre...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 78
Views: 3044

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

If anyone high up at Vanguard reads this, could you please consider launching a gold ETF similar to GLD and IAU? The fees in this space are relatively high at (.4% and .25% for the prior two mentioned funds) and could greatly use Vanguard's razor thin fee competition. The precious metals fund curre...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 78
Views: 3044

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

This is why... (correlation matrix) https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTI%2C+IAU%2C+VGPMX&endDate=09%2F20%2F2017&timePeriod=1&numTradingDays=60 Vanguard likes to create funds for asset classes/sectors. Precious Metals are a legitimate asset class. Correlation in you...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Warren Buffett and Bond Funds
Replies: 34
Views: 2423

Re: Warren Buffett and Bond Funds

Warren Buffett is a ..... don't get me started. Remember when he bought all that IBM stock? And kept buying, saying when the price went down it was a sale. So I did not sell my ESPP stock as I was going to, thinking this is a smart guy, so ..... I'm sure he pulled out all the marketing tricks to he...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 51
Views: 2190

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

Lending in the oil industry ...read the Big Short you will notice more than a couple similarities... Three to 4 years ago I think 30 per cent of US high yield was to fracking companies? Some number like that? Now though I suspect we are through the worst. 3 years of low oil prices and brutal cost c...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 51
Views: 2190

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

I found "Burn Out: The Endgame for Fossil Fuels" by Dieter Helm a good read on this topic. I certainly won't go out and short energy companies but I am pretty convinced their best days are behind them and the trend for energy prices is down. But, this also seems to be priced into their valuations. ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $200,000 Saved - Mid 50's - Best Approach [US Citizen in UK]
Replies: 8
Views: 1137

Re: $200,000 Saved - Mid 50's - Best Approach [US Citizen in UK]

Got a lump sum of 200k and am fast approaching mid-50's. I'm looking for a sound approach that doesn't mean I have to work beyond 65. I've looked at Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust - and its performance has been stellar. Figuring it outperforms FTSE/NYSE indexes, consistently for the past decade...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 2239

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

Why do Bitcoin fanboys get so defensive and attack when people point out potential flaws in their strategy? It seems that every day there is a new Bitcoin fanatic on here hyping it up and then they are gone a few days later. Because, on this website, the number of people here who sneer is much grea...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 51
Views: 2190

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

Since the Harvey highs gas prices dropped some 30 cents in general and by as much as 50 cents on some corners. (And we also have low gas taxes. :D ) It's the same in Cincinnati. It jumped after Harvey, but we are back to--and in some cases below--pre-Harvey prices. My neighborhood stations are $2.2...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 51
Views: 2190

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

I enjoy reading the outside perspective because I work in the industry and obviously I hope it rebounds. My personal opinion on the matter is oil prices (and really all commodity prices) have always been very cyclical. When I entered the industry oil was 120, 130 a barrel and we drilled anywhere an...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 2239

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

bberris wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:58 am
Like the stock tips from the shoeshine boy in 1929, the 2017 version is BH threads discussing bitcoin.
I think Bernard Baruch said Elevator Operator.

And I've never managed to find one in all my searches for one, since ;-)
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 51
Views: 2190

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

Not all US oil has the same production cost. Some is profitable at $20, while some is not profitable at $60. My advice, after more than 20 years in the oil business, is to neither over nor underweight energy in your portfolio. I do overweight REITs, but for the rest of my US equity exposure I'm hap...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...
Replies: 33
Views: 2288

Re: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...

I think leasing is fine if you’re doing it to get the cheapest route into a car for minimal hassle. For example you might know you need a car for 2 years and you can deal with one of those $99 or $129/mo Kia or Hyundai leases. For an investment of $2400-$3100 you have a car for two years and then y...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...
Replies: 33
Views: 2288

Re: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...

Absolutely avoid a diesel car, because emission restrictions in urban areas are only going to get tighter. This, at least, is certain in Europe. You don't want to be trying to sell a diesel car in 5 years. Hogwash, at least in the US. Diesels are exempt from emissions testing in numerous states inc...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...
Replies: 33
Views: 2288

Re: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...

Are we at the precipice of rapid technological change in cars (e.g. self driving or on demand driving or other technological disruption) that making a 5 to 10 year commitment to the current technology by buying is not a wise decision. I don't think so and just recently replaced a vehicle with the i...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...
Replies: 33
Views: 2288

Re: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...

I think self driving cars are going to be a harder technology to develop than companies want you to believe. It's fine to get it working 80% of the time to build hype, but getting it working 99.999999% of the time to avoid accidents is easier said than done. If your app on your iphone crashes, hey ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 51
Views: 2190

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

Oil is over $50 a barrel. An expert on TV was asked if this was due to the recent OPEC announcement. LONDON (Reuters) - Oil headed for its largest third-quarter gain in 13 years as prices rose on Wednesday after the Iraqi oil minister said OPEC and its partners are considering extending or deepenin...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 2239

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

If somebody decides 5% of their allocation will be bitcoin, and it drops in half, will you sell stocks or bonds to buy more bitcoin? If it drops in half again, will you do the same? Rinse and repeat until your entire portfolio return is negative. Funny, I put around 5% in cryptos earlier this year....
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the right career path for me?
Replies: 22
Views: 1920

Re: What is the right career path for me?

Hi, since this forum is filled with a lot of people who are knowledgeable and give great advice, I am wondering if you guys would be able to give me some insight/views/advice on my career path: I am 25y/o and after much soul searching, I have found that there are some things that I want to do/becom...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: differences between stock exchanges
Replies: 5
Views: 685

Re: differences between stock exchanges

Hi, Any major differences between the US exchanges specifically BATS? There is a certain ETF I have been looking at and its traded on BATS(of which I've never heard of before!) Is it as safe, secure as NASDAQ and NYSE? Also looking into BATS, they say for example, AMD is one of the most active on t...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...
Replies: 33
Views: 2288

Re: Lease vs. Buy debate with a twist...

We are new car shopping. Thanks to everyone who gave recommendations in the other thread. However, we are considering a lease vs. buy decision. We are very familiar with the usual pros and cons. Two things we are wondering about that are not usually discussed: 1) Are we at the precipice of rapid te...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 2239

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

If somebody decides 5% of their allocation will be bitcoin, and it drops in half, will you sell stocks or bonds to buy more bitcoin? If it drops in half again, will you do the same? Rinse and repeat until your entire portfolio return is negative. Quite. And we argue here about reit allocations. Or ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: differences between stock exchanges
Replies: 5
Views: 685

Re: differences between stock exchanges

Hi, Any major differences between the US exchanges specifically BATS? There is a certain ETF I have been looking at and its traded on BATS(of which I've never heard of before!) Is it as safe, secure as NASDAQ and NYSE? Also looking into BATS, they say for example, AMD is one of the most active on t...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My entry into Lazyland (long)
Replies: 3
Views: 988

Re: My entry into Lazyland (long)

Hello. This is my first post and I am finding the process of constructing it (doing my best to adhere to the structure that’s been suggested) already clarifying and helpful. Here are some of my pertinent details: Emergency fund : I have a sufficient emergency fund. Debt : I have a remaining balance...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 2239

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

Can everyone list all the currencies they invest in, not just Bitcoin? I don't consider currencies a mean of investing. Currencies were created and used for 2 things (investing is not one of them): 1- As a mean of exchange 2- To speculate on. Also as - a unit of account - a store of value re 2, fix...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to buy a used VW Diesel?
Replies: 19
Views: 1303

Re: Time to buy a used VW Diesel?

How many different ways can the world tell you that those cars are not good for the air that you and your loved ones breathe? I am much more concerned about the coal powered cars - like the teslas and the plugin electrics I see driven by the rich and in substantial part paid for by subsidies. OTOH ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home energy monitoring
Replies: 40
Views: 5098

Re: Home energy monitoring

30 years ago I jury-rigged a 25 cent analog clock in series with a 240v normally open relay on specific electrical devices (water heater, AC, furnace, etc.) and recorded daily electric consumption over several weeks (Note: This is not something anyone should attempt without a working knowledge of e...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will happen to a USD Hedged fund if the USD Declines, VTABX
Replies: 9
Views: 1102

Re: What will happen to a USD Hedged fund if the USD Declines, VTABX

If the USD declines relative to the currencies of the countries that issue the bonds held in the Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund (VTABX), will currency exchange gains be negated? From the fund prospectus: "By entering into currency hedging transactions, the Fund may eliminate any chanc...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Overseas real estate markets
Replies: 5
Views: 563

Re: Overseas real estate markets

Are there any developed countries outside the US that are the value stocks of real estate? So I'm asking not about Vancouver or London or Tokyo, but some place that is developed, civilized, and nice, but not yet bid up to crazy levels. Same question for farmland, too. You should be aware of the "Ry...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2536

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

What is the difference between risk and uncertainty? I heard a discussion about this on a non-financial topic and it made me wonder about this as applied to finance and investing. I guess I always assumed they are the same. But perhaps not. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knightian_uncertainty takes ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making my own Total US stock market fund.
Replies: 20
Views: 1673

Re: Making my own Total US stock market fund.

This is a bit off topic, but OP has a very small bond allocation. Depending on your age and risk tolerance you might be better served with more bonds. If you haven't given it much thought, that decision is much more important than the one being discussed here. Sorry for the interruption. I'm a 33 y...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US dollar fails, are stocks safe?
Replies: 44
Views: 5485

Re: If the US dollar fails, are stocks safe?

If the US dollar fails, am I safe? Anyway, I will take my chances and pass on this opportunity to build and stock a remote bunker. If society goes, so do I. One needs to (re)read Lucifer's Hammer-- the remote bolthole won't save anyone, because the refugees and the predators will follow you there. ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to buy a used VW Diesel?
Replies: 19
Views: 1303

Re: Time to buy a used VW Diesel?

I noticed a large used car dealer I have dealt with suddenly has about 15 used VW diesels (2015s) of various models in stock. Strange they have not had any for years, and now they have so many at one time. At first glance, the prices seem good. Does anyone know what the financial implications of bu...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?
Replies: 56
Views: 3914

Re: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?

All main U.S. stock indexes are reaching historic new highs, and bond indexes are dropping. It seems to be a good time to rebalance. However, it is painful to sell the winners and buy the losers. So what is the main purpose of rebalancing? Is it preserving the stability of a portfolio, or increasin...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US dollar fails, are stocks safe?
Replies: 44
Views: 5485

Re: Re:

I've read and heard those doom and gloom stories recently and 50 years ago as well. Now it is the devalued dollars or when the dollar is no longer the world's currency...when the dollar is not a currency which can buy oil...when the dollar will not be good enough to pay for our bond debts...when th...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2939
Views: 863952

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy - this was a world of difference from Dr. Strange. Maybe because the characters were aliens/cyborgs, but I wasn't expecting as much development from them and I got more than I bargained for. There were plenty of witty lines to keep me laughing, which might have been...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US dollar fails, are stocks safe?
Replies: 44
Views: 5485

Re:

I've read and heard those doom and gloom stories recently and 50 years ago as well. Now it is the devalued dollars or when the dollar is no longer the world's currency...when the dollar is not a currency which can buy oil...when the dollar will not be good enough to pay for our bond debts...when th...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Overseas real estate markets
Replies: 5
Views: 563

Re: Overseas real estate markets

Depends what you want. Parts of Scotland And Wales are dirt cheap. It's mostly grazing land Or poor farmland. Former East Germany? Beware most places water rights are key. I'd look at Iowa or somewhere like that. I doubt New Zealand is cheap these days. South Island maybe? Tasmania? On country I es...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Overseas real estate markets
Replies: 5
Views: 563

Re: Overseas real estate markets

Depends what you want. Parts of Scotland And Wales are dirt cheap. It's mostly grazing land Or poor farmland.

Former East Germany?

Beware most places water rights are key.

I'd look at Iowa or somewhere like that.

I doubt New Zealand is cheap these days. South Island maybe?

Tasmania?
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making my own Total US stock market fund.
Replies: 20
Views: 1673

Re: Making my own Total US stock market fund.

Valuethinker wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:28 am

I believe the correct percentages are approximately (someone more knowledgeable will correct me at that point, or point me to the wiki?):

80% S&P 500
15% Mid Cap
5% Small Cap

However 75/15/10 would also work.
And I have been corrected by in_reality's post.
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK based investing - bond ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 722

Re: UK based investing - bond ETFs

Basically the £1m is very easy to hit-- it really depends on your age. It is quite likely I will hit it in the next 15 years i.e. before planned retirement date. But I did not have enough (ie over £1.0m) to opt for protection now. For completeness, note that there are two forms of protection from t...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Worth buying an excessive priced house?
Replies: 43
Views: 3754

Re: Worth buying an excessive house?

My spouse and I grew up in homes where money was a concern. We're in terrific financial and employment shape now and live in a low-medium cost of living area. We have about 15x annual expensives saved after 10 years of saving, plan to work at least part time for a while, and love our current nice, ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 2939
Views: 863952

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

An Inconvenient Truth, the Sequel: Speaking Truth to Power - much less about the science than the first one (which was really a sort of rock concert tour movie of the presentation). More about the politics leading up to Paris COP 21 -- the scene where they take the Metro to get out of a traffic jam...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2104

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

M* does more than ratings which are useless. Morningstar ratings are not useless if used appropriately. Avoid funds with 1 and 2 star ratings. Indeed. You are right, I remember a study that showed that low star ratings did show persistence. However, frequently the reason why funds have 1 and 2-star...