Search found 48470 matches

by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:25 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Short investment window and retiring soon
Replies: 16
Views: 887

Re: Short investment window and retiring soon

This is good advice. Imagine if another respiratory virus broke out - deadly. The drop in the market in March-early April 2020 was almost the definition of "the Black Swan" (-30%?). Or the nearly 50% drop in 2008-09. Or the 3 year bear market that broke out in 2000 and lasted until March 2003 (-35%). We cannot be sure that Central Banks could rescue the stock market in another crisis. Stocks did not do well from 2000-2010. Certainly non-US stocks did not do well at all (UK, Europe, Japan). I would be 30% in bonds. Maybe 10% short term bonds or term deposits. 20% intermediate term government bonds. What if during a market crash I'm able to live completely without my portfolio? Like on my Pension plus a rental property. So I would ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 201
Views: 19935

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

I think Boeing would be acquired way before it went bankrupt. There is also a national interest in Boeing being a functioning company, I very much doubt the United States government would allow Boeing to go into bankruptcy, it would cause more problems than it would solve. In fact during the pandemic the U.S. government was offering Boeing all kinds of aid/financing but they didn't want to take it because they didn't want conditions for accepting the money. Perhaps that was yet another mistake by Boeing executives but it shows there is very little appetite for Boeing going bankrupt. Obviously anything can happen in markets and with individual companies but there are a lot of options between here and bankruptcy for Boeing. It would be a ser...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chicago vs Michigan vs Notre Dame vs UNC Chapel Hill for Economics Major
Replies: 17
Views: 1254

Re: Chicago vs Michigan vs Notre Dame vs UNC Chapel Hill for Economics Major

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=7789575#p7789575 Definitely have a read of what Watty says in this thread. Very sound advice. Thank you for the detailed feedback above and mentioning this link. I agree that what is good for others may not be good for my niece. Chicago invited her for an open house (staying overnight in the dorms). Hopefully she will get a good feel from this experience and will help her decide. My spouse was accepted to many of the schools listed above (in the WSO quote) and having this type of overnight visits helped to eliminate a few of them, so I am hoping it will help my niece as well. Chicago. The big questions are: - does doing undergrad economics include exposure to the great minds at Chicago? (Chi...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Exposed fiberglass insulation in basement ceiling - Cover?
Replies: 14
Views: 606

Re: Exposed fiberglass insulation in basement ceiling - Cover?

Can it be covered up with drywall and painted? That would reduce the fiber count and leave you with a fresh ceiling. Add a few access hatches for utilities. Or you could install a drop ceiling. I spent five years after college working in the asbestos industry, carrying my microscope from building to buliding, taking air samples and analyzing them. Fiberglass fibers are long and curly, less likely to stick in the lungs. Amosite asbestor fibers were like littel needles that could penetrate cells. But none of it is good for you. Seal it up. Agree re drywall. I have heard of exposed fibreglass in attics, but never in a habitable space. Working with fibreglass insulation, if you are not properly attired and masked, can leave your skin just itch...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cybertruck-anyone else get to try it on?
Replies: 61
Views: 4350

Re: Cybertruck-anyone else get to try it on?

TheOscarGuy wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:21 am
Valuethinker wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:51 am There might be scarcity value in this truck. Novelty. Buy it, drive it, flip it in a year?
Pretty sure people are looking at tesla price drops last year and think that can again happen with cybertruck. No telling what Musk does with new cybertruck prices in a year.
EVs the falls in prices of batteries continue to drive economies and lower prices. The Chinese are coming (even if trade barriers block them in many jurisdictions).

However Tesla needs to actually make money and with this premium product, I don't see that will be so easy if they slash prices. Depends on competition I would guess.

The Autonomous Vehicle thing seems like such a red herring.
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which Bonds Fund To Buy
Replies: 16
Views: 1679

Re: Which Bonds Fund To Buy

hey, i'm 59, planning on retiring in 4-5 years. I've reached my number for retirement ($1 mil, plus enough equity in house to buy a smaller place once the kids leave for college in 2 years), so looking to preserve what o have. feel like i need to get more conservative in my portfolio and was looking for a fidelity bond index fund, but open to other suggestions. my asset allocation: 90% stocks in fidelity index fund (FXAIX) 10% cash the FXAIX is split 60/40 between taxable and non-taxable IRA's. my idea was to reallocate most if not all of the non-taxable into bonds. would love to hear suggestions. thanks. So I would suggest that you should be c 30% in bonds and other fixed instruments like CDs, ibonds etc. i.e. 70/30 or 70/20/10 Enough to ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chicago vs Michigan vs Notre Dame vs UNC Chapel Hill for Economics Major
Replies: 17
Views: 1254

Re: Chicago vs Michigan vs Notre Dame vs UNC Chapel Hill for Economics Major

Thank you EVERYONE for your valuable feedback. I will send my niece a link for unbiased assessment of the feedback I am receiving here. - Try Wall Street Oasis for some more opinions. MMiroir, your WSO suggestion was awesome. I opened an account and read through some posts. Especially this post about Chicago got my attention. Which "Tier" does [Chicago] fit in with regards to reputation, prestige, recruiting opportunities [...]- Not necessarily pure volume of placement 1 - Harvard, Wharton, Yale, Princeton, Stanford, MIT 2 - Columbia, Dartmouth, Duke, Penn Econ 3 - Brown, Cornell, Stern, Georgetown, UMich 4 - UVA, Northwestern, Berkeley, Williams, Amherst The majority of the responses seem to put it in between groups 1 and 2. Do ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chicago vs Michigan vs Notre Dame vs UNC Chapel Hill for Economics Major
Replies: 17
Views: 1254

Re: Chicago vs Michigan vs Notre Dame vs UNC Chapel Hill for Economics Major

Of the four schools, Chicago will offer her the best opportunity for consulting. Chicago has traditionally offered a very analytic Economics major that prepared students for grad schools and PHD's. It is very math intensive. A few years ago, Chicago added a Business Economics major which tones down the math requirements. The placement from Chicago's econ program is excellent. I do not know how the business economics places. Notre Dame would be a tie with Chicago if she got into the Mendoza School of Business. Placement as an undergraduate from Mendoza to IB and consulting is as good as any undergraduate college in the country. If she is going Economics from ND CLAS, placement from what I understand is not nearly as strong as coming from Me...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chicago vs Michigan vs Notre Dame vs UNC Chapel Hill for Economics Major
Replies: 17
Views: 1254

Re: Chicago vs Michigan vs Notre Dame vs UNC Chapel Hill for Economics Major

hunoraut wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:22 am
BorqaZ wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:37 pm My niece is highly motivated and wants to go to consulting route. (I was very surprised that she knew what that is at 17 years old.)
If youre talking about reputation and placement at the most desirable jobs for that major and occupational field its quite clearly Chicago and Michigan at a tier above UNC and ND.
I would agree.
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you do better than BND, Part 2: Test across bear and bull markets
Replies: 31
Views: 3800

Re: Can you do better than BND, Part 2: Test across bear and bull markets

Preliminary conclusions In theory, a total bond market index must be the most efficient bond portfolio, offering the best available combination of risk and return. I call that MPTOS, Modern Portfolio Theory On Steroids (front syllable rhymes with that of “empty”). BND, as currently implemented, is NOT total—it excludes all bonds rated below Baa. More generally, it is not clear to me that individual bonds are fungible in the way that exchange-listed common stocks may well be fungible. A Treasury isn’t the same thing as a corporate bond, even an AAA-rated one. Or maybe, the idea that a “total” [anything] fund, one that actual investors can buy in the world, must necessarily be most efficient, remains, to use a phrase from the philosopher Kar...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 311
Views: 29932

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

...Watson from IBM won Jeopardy back in 2011. Watson was supposed to take over the medical profession. What happened?... ..."Watson" was a series of technologies & algorithms rather than a single thing (for marketing they gave it a name) and some of those have carried forward. IBM made an absolutely dead serious attempt to use Watson for medical purposes, specifically "Watson for Oncology." They began selling it, for money, for that purpose in 2014. They put 7,000 employees on it. They spent $5 billion on acquisitions alone. Gini Rometti called it "our moonshot." It was a failure. Formally terminated and, in effect, "sold off for parts." A reporter named Carey Ross obtained an internal IBM presen...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
Replies: 65
Views: 8590

Re: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources

I would also raise the prospect of "affinity fraud". Not that these investment organisations are necessarily fraudulent. But the underlying principle of affinity fraud is that "x shares my beliefs/ social circle, therefore x is trustworthy with my money". It's how financial products salespeople work, all the time - eg insurance agents. They are good people, very visible in their community. But they are selling totally the wrong product, and giving bad advice, for many of their clients. In the US this was Madoff - he worked the country club circuit for people of his faith and background, hard. Had to keep getting new clients to pay out on the old ones, since there was no actual fund of investments there. That's why he nev...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
Replies: 65
Views: 8590

Re: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources

I am mildly against faith based investing. The actual mechanisms on affecting change are weak in the corporate world are weak. The expenses are high. As such they tend to be feel-good investments rather than actually good investments. For the past 20 years this has been my answer. Invest in a low cost index fund. Use the money saved to campaign for the causes that matter. This is a much more effective choice. +1 +1 +1 .... infinity There's a couple of things going on, as Alex notes: 1. the ability of investors to actually influence company policies and direction is quite small. There are socially activist funds, and if one feels strongly, one could put (some) money with them. 2. " investing good " is a " feel good " str...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got fired and I have question regarding resume.
Replies: 39
Views: 3679

Re: Got fired and I have question regarding resume.

I had spent the last 5 years in LTC/healthcare accounting then I took this current position doing AP daily accounting activities for a small manufacturer. The position was similar as to what I was doing previously... Just list your time in the position so you don't have any questionable gaps in your work history. If asked about why it was so short, tell them that after five months you mutually agreed that you weren't a good fit for their job. Explain that you had different expectations of the job from the interview, that you thought your accounting experience in long-term health care would easily transfer to manufacturing accounts payable, and after five months you realized that wasn't the case. Leaving the job was best both for you and fo...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got fired and I have question regarding resume.
Replies: 39
Views: 3679

Re: Got fired and I have question regarding resume.

So I just got fired today from a job I have had for just 5 months. My question is how do you list that on a resume and explain that to in your next interview? I had spent the last 5 years in LTC/healthcare accounting then I took this current position doing AP daily accounting activities for a small manufacturer. The position was similar as to what I was doing previously but it took me apparently too long to learn the new company's systems and new responsibilities, so I am now out of a job.   Feeling pretty low right now second layoff in the last 10 years. I should have gone to trade school instead college. Don't take it personally. Or rather, try to understand in your own self that this is not personal. Would you feel different if you had ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Questions about Vanguard intermediate TIPS fund results
Replies: 5
Views: 623

Re: Questions about Vanguard intermediate TIPS fund results

I used Portfolio Analyzer to analyze the performance of the VG intermediate TIPS fund admiral shares (VAIPX) from inception (6/10/2005) to the present (2/29/2024). The results were: 1. Initial investment of $10,000 would have had a balance of $17,773 on 2/29/2024. 2. The inflation adjusted balance was $11,209 on 2/29/2024. 3. The CAGR (compound annual growth rate) was 3.13%. 4. The inflation adjusted CAGR was 0.69%. Questions: 1. I assume this means that if actual inflation for the entire period was a flat 0.00%, the balance on 2/29/2024 would have been $11,209, correct? 2. If I had invested $10,000 at inception, my balance would have been $17,773 on 2/29/2024, correct? Assuming no withdrawals from the fund. So capital gains + dividends re...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 201
Views: 19935

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

The background of the person, Stephanie Pope, just put in charge of the Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) division speaks volume on the focus and what is important for the division. Her background is a bachelor's degree in accounting from Southwest Missouri State University (source https://www.boeing.com/company/bios/stephanie-pope). She is generally a niceish person, but woefully, woefully out of her depth when it comes to wrangling BCA's issues to resolution. Ask me how I know... (Hey, did I mention that I just recently "fired my employer" a month ago? A very large American aircraft manufacturer.) And yes, I'm astounded that they put a pure finance person in there. I suspect your (successful) financial position speaks volumes a...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AC or Heat Pump in Seattle
Replies: 29
Views: 1807

Re: AC or Heat Pump in Seattle

Not as much a concern in Seattle, but a big issue with a heat pump only system in colder climates is power outages. I can run my oil boiler on a tiny 1kw inverter generator that's quiet and burns very little fuel. Running my heat pumps full bore in sub-freezing temps is 10kW +. i am not sure what the situation is with gas. If the electricity goes out, does the gas pressure stay sufficient? Domestic oil heat is a rarity in North America -- natural gas has largely displaced it since the 1970s oil crises. From memory I think EIA stats - 2% of homes? I suspect in the long run the contamination risks (even if well controlled) will eventually make it obsolete. But that's the long run ie 20+ years out. One of the peculiarities (as I understand it...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:56 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Career break to maximise time with kids?
Replies: 43
Views: 3180

Re: Career break to maximise time with kids?

A few points that might help: 1- you are certainly not mad. remember the 40h work week was a negotiation between interest groups after WWII and was considered by 'workers' acceptable because before that they were working more. There is no evidence, scientific or otherwise, that says "40 or 50 hours / week have been proven to increase mental or physical health of workers" 2- you said you feel 'responsibility to carry on'. I suspect this comes from the context and communication around us (more money is desirable, buying more expensive things is desirable) and that might affect your thinking. On the financials, you can do whatever. Even if you were to send three kids to Oxbridge you will have enough money to do it. I did not take th...
by Valuethinker
Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cybertruck-anyone else get to try it on?
Replies: 61
Views: 4350

Re: Cybertruck-anyone else get to try it on?

Out of curiosity, I went back to revisit reporting from the time of the original announcement: https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-pricing-start-39995/ The truck was pretty much exactly on schedule, adjusting for Musk time. Musk said it would begin deliveries in late 2021 (2 years after the announcement). I had started following SpaceX back around 2005, so when he said 2021, it had become instinctive to translate it as 2023. The actual first deliveries were Nov. 30, 2023 (4 years and 8 days after the announcement). I never gave the $39,900 price claim any credibility. I will go so far as to say I considered it downright dishonest on Musk's part to claim they would achieve roughly the same price as the base Model 3 was then sel...
by Valuethinker
Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:54 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Career break to maximise time with kids?
Replies: 43
Views: 3180

Re: Career break to maximise time with kids?

You are not mad. What does your typical work-day time breakdown look like? How many hours spent commuting and how many hours spent working? I prioritized family once my child (now graduated from college) arrived, but did so by Keeping my commute short (done before child arrived), and Working 40 hours/week (rather than, say, 60+) I got a few hours per weekday evening with my child and also had weekends. Thanks for your reply. Typical day would be leaving the house at 6am, 10 mins drive to the train station, arrive at the office ~7.20am (trains permitting). Work till 17.30, then back on the train and arrive home at ~7pm. 5 days a week. Weekends are 100% free from work. So yeah, my daily commute is the best part of 3 hours (I live in rural Ho...
by Valuethinker
Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:39 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Short investment window and retiring soon
Replies: 16
Views: 887

Re: Short investment window and retiring soon

Is this a viable plan giving the short period left for compounding to take effect? Should I be allocating a portion of my investment to bonds right away? or keep it 100% stocks to get the most possible return for the small window left? Bonds are likely advisable. What is your age? Do you have any tax-advantaged retirement accounts like a 401k or IRA? If you just need 3-4%, something between 40% stocks and 60% bonds to 70% stocks and 30% bonds may be more reasonable than 100% stocks Keep in mind that while 100% stocks gives you the most upside for the next 3 years, it also gives you the most downside for the next 3 years. You could go into retirement with 500k instead of 1M This is good advice. Imagine if another respiratory virus broke out...
by Valuethinker
Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me choose a new heating and air system - NYC (HVAC)
Replies: 28
Views: 1918

Re: Help me choose a new heating and air system - NYC (HVAC)

When comparing gas furnace BTUs, you also need to know the efficiency of the furnace. It would be very typical to replace an old 80,000 BTU furnace that is 80% efficient with a modern 60,000 BTU furnace that is 95% efficient. I didn't know that efficiency was related to output; I thought it was only related to input (how much energy was necessary to produce the stated output)...? So I thought an 80kbtu 70% furnace would produce exactly the same output as an 80kbtu 95% furnace, but cost more for fuel while doing so. Whenever I had a choice, vendors would offer say an 80kbtu 80% furnace or an 80kbtu 95% furnace; vendors never changed the btu recommended, just the efficiency percentage (and the price.) That was my understanding, too. That the...
by Valuethinker
Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me choose a new heating and air system - NYC (HVAC)
Replies: 28
Views: 1918

Re: Help me choose a new heating and air system? (HVAC) - UPDATE

You haven't owned the house since the 50s, so it might've been up-insulated by a prior owner. Many furnaces are oversized, and this is usually undesirable. The easiest way to know your BTU requirements is to time your heating system cycling on and off during some cold weather. like with a stopwatch. If your 80 kBTU/h furnace is firing 40% of the time when its 20°F outside, your house needs 80k*0.4 = 32kBTU/h at that outdoor temp. Demand is almost linear in the temperature difference indoors and outdoors. So that 32kBTU/h for a 70-20°F = 50°F difference implies that a 60kBTU unit could heat you down to almost -25°F, for example. Add in some margin for wind. :) That sort of furnace cycling estimation is MUCH more reliable than a manual J in ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 201
Views: 19935

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

As an aeronautical engineer, I have a sentimental softness for Boeing, as a "stalwart" in the industry, and the developer of many fine technological advances, such as the B29 and other storied aircraft, the 747 and so on. Unfortunately that does not translate into any knowledge, actionable or even merely theoretical, into either its prospects as a business, or its vitality as a stock. As others noted, it is unlikely that Boeing would be "allowed" to outright fail, meaning that in dire situation, there would be a bailout. But again as others have noted, that is no balm for pained investors, and instead is likely a wipeout. I do hope that Boeing turns-around and succeeds, but can't justify devoting even just play-money, t...
by Valuethinker
Wed Mar 27, 2024 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 201
Views: 19935

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

The background of the person, Stephanie Pope, just put in charge of the Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) division speaks volume on the focus and what is important for the division. Her background is a bachelor's degree in accounting from Southwest Missouri State University (source https://www.boeing.com/company/bios/stephanie-pope). She is generally a niceish person, but woefully, woefully out of her depth when it comes to wrangling BCA's issues to resolution. Ask me how I know... (Hey, did I mention that I just recently "fired my employer" a month ago? A very large American aircraft manufacturer.) And yes, I'm astounded that they put a pure finance person in there. I suspect your (successful) financial position speaks volumes a...
by Valuethinker
Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone use Windows OS on ARM?
Replies: 14
Views: 1130

Re: Anyone use windows arm?

Not recently... But I was an early adopter of a Surface RT device, which was an ARM based. Back then the "app store" was very immature. The only apps that would run were some of those in the "app store", which was very immature at the time (Windows 8 era). Not sure if they still sell it, but the Surface X was the "modern" equivalent (or more modern anyway). As the "app store" has improved, I think it's usefulness has improved as well. But invariably, you'll run into applications that won't run... I think it really depends on what apps you care about. If all of them are in the app store, believe it shows if they'll run on Arm (but been awhile since I've looked). If they aren't in the App store, likely...
by Valuethinker
Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone use Windows OS on ARM?
Replies: 14
Views: 1130

Re: Anyone use windows arm?

gavinsiu wrote: Tue Mar 26, 2024 1:47 pm
MH2 wrote: Tue Mar 26, 2024 12:54 pm It’s not just power consumption. The hardware and software experience with MacOS is excellent. Everything just works.
That's more of the eye of the beholder. My wife thinks MacOS experience is terrible. This is mostly because she is so used to Windows that doing things the MacOS way feels wrong.
Also the MS Excel keyboard shortcuts are different on MAC OS than on Windows.

This really does matter if you are a frequent user of MS Excel
by Valuethinker
Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:15 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Career break to maximise time with kids?
Replies: 43
Views: 3180

Re: Career break to maximise time with kids?

There are a lot of jobs out there that pay £50k pa (if that) and are 5+ days a week. Jobs where you have to manage 20 people, meet budgets, play politics, etc. Imagine being a manager in Asdas right now. Or running road repair crews. Remember how privileged you are to be able to even consider the possibility. In my experience (as an ex Finance person) most people in Finance have no clue what it's like outside of Finance. What counts as "normal". This is a country where the average household income is c. £38k pa and the average full time wage around £26k pa (without checking). A colleague's uncle was at Lehman, knows the royalty etc-- high flyer (corporate broker, I think). Never managed to find a good position again post Lehman, s...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 25, 2024 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me choose a new heating and air system - NYC (HVAC)
Replies: 28
Views: 1918

Re: Help me choose a new heating and air system? (HVAC)

Our almost 28 year Carrier Furnace started producing a "slightly sweet smell" coming out of the air ducts. We've had it diagnosed by two different companies as being a clogged heat exchanger with about a $5000 cost for parts and labor to replace the heat exchanger. The furnace is now not being used and it is cold - however - we are taking our time to evaluate our heating options. The choices: We live in the Northeast with cold winters. Current unit: 80,000 BTU Carrier Furnace, with a 3 ton, 8 Seer Carrier A/C Unit. - Trane or Lennox Furnace + Heat Pump + hard wired thermostat (prefer not having it connected to internet). 2-stage furnace. - Trane or Lennox Furnace + A/C Unit + hard wired thermostat (prefer not having it connected ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 25, 2024 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you do a house upgrade?
Replies: 49
Views: 3553

Re: Would you do a house upgrade?

I don't have many people I can discuss financial matters with in my real life so I wanted to get some feedback from the wise BH community. We are considering a major upgrade in housing. I am retired and wife is SAHM. 2 kids with about 5-7 years before they are off to college. Current house: about 1.3mm (paid off) nice community with swimming pool, houses all on smaller lots with homes 750k-1.4mm. Potential house: 3.8mm - (agent thinks house should be list around 4.2-4.3mm but they want quick sell as they already bought another place) - parade home that is stunningly beautiful in a gated, golf course community with homes 2-10+mm We have no debt and the purchase would be all cash. It would still be only about 20% of NW. I know we can afford ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 25, 2024 1:47 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: What is the difference between VFAWF and VWRP
Replies: 18
Views: 1065

Re: What is the difference between VFAWF and VWRP

kyleplaytime15 wrote: Mon Mar 25, 2024 1:41 pm Any way to confirm?
Should be on the Key Investor Information Document. Or on the Factsheet.

I assume these are both Vanguard products? You've checked the descriptions on the website?
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 25, 2024 1:28 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: What is the difference between VFAWF and VWRP
Replies: 18
Views: 1065

Re: What is the difference between VFAWF and VWRP

kyleplaytime15 wrote: Mon Mar 25, 2024 10:37 am They both say "Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF USD Acc" so I can't figure out the difference.

I want to buy the Vanguard all world etf, but domiciled in ireland.

I live in the US but im a non-us resident
Currency?
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 25, 2024 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oxford UK and region - rent a car for vacation?
Replies: 20
Views: 1269

Re: Oxford UK and region - rent a car for vacation?

A couple of years ago, we rented a car out of Heathrow, and spent a week driving a loop from Dover in the southeast then west to Bath and northwest to the Cotswold's. In planning what to visit, we heavily relied on the UK National Trust website. https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/ From wikipedia: The Trust was founded in 1895 by Octavia Hill, Sir Robert Hunter and Hardwicke Rawnsley to "promote the permanent preservation for the benefit of the Nation of lands and tenements (including buildings) of beauty or historic interest". It was given statutory powers, starting with the National Trust Act 1907. Historically, the Trust acquired land by gift and sometimes by public subscription and appeal, but after World War II the loss of coun...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Replies: 246
Views: 40591

Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here

Interesting thoughts from both of you. Annette, I am glad you found this path that works for you. (It took me a minute or two but I figured out what QOL means...it probably helped that not that many words start with "Q".). The bottom line is to make money, but not let money make you. I think that is from an old Jerry Jeff Walker song. I wish I could take credit. Valuethinker....I'm surprised, actually, that London real estate is keeping up with inflation post-Brexit. It's a mad, mad, mad, mad world. From the actual date of "get Brexit done" as the then PM Boris J campaigned on (31/ Dec/ 2020 ?) I am not sure. Remember that this is GBP terms. But GBP has depreciated something like 20% against USD since 2016? So for the p...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you setback thermostat on your electric heatpump?
Replies: 47
Views: 2754

Re: Do you setback thermostat on your electric heatpump?

I've heard tell that it uses less electricity to cool than to heat. For heat pumps (and air conditioners), cooling takes heat from inside the house and moves the heat outside, and house temps are normally in the 60-80 degree range. This is the sweet spot for most heat pump designs, so it takes a lot less energy to move the heat than the alternate where you are taking 30 degree outside temps and moving heat into the house. The efficiency of pump design is much higher at 60 degrees vs. 30 degrees. I am not sure how optimised US heat pumps are on absolute temperature? In principle 25F external to 45F internal should be pretty much the same amount of energy (heating) as 90 external down to 70 internal (cooling)? +20F either way. Of course to c...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Protection: More or less Survivor Benefits?
Replies: 3
Views: 415

Re: Pension Protection: More or less Survivor Benefits?

[Split from Subject: Pension Protection: Life Insurance vs More Survivor Benefits? into its own thread by Moderator Misenplace] Good thread, as I am approaching 60 with retirement out there in 1 to ? years, and trying to be the financial planner in our 2 person family. Complicating factors are a larger age difference (my spouse is 13 years younger) and health difference (spouse may have less actuarial health left than the tables and reduction factors give indicate) and recent death of my brother in his 60's (wake up call to the max, but also different risk profile). To go 100% beneficiary will cost 18% from an unmodified pension. There is a 50% option as well that will cost 10%. The contract for one portion of my service results in a 10% s...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Replies: 246
Views: 40591

Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here

** My British spouse couldn't quite believe " Dudley Do-right of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police"*** Mr. Peabody and his pet boy, Sherman must have given her a good laugh. Some of my relations have ghastly puns. So it was wince-worthy for her. It's rare to see American TV take the mick of Canadians. Well there was Due South (about a Mountie in Chicago) but that was filmed in Toronto**. Indeed the number of America-set tv shows that are actually filmed in Toronto or Vancouver is legion... One episode of Star Trek: Strange New World s actually manages to admit to a Toronto location when they beam back into the 21st century outside the main downtown Toronto shopping mall ("What was once called Canada. You know. Maple syrup. I...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Replies: 246
Views: 40591

Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here

I think it’s very kind of the OP to acknowledge that those of us who are “too conservative” on this board have our reasons based on our life experience. When you have seen so many people, over and over again, go through the protracted, life altering anguish of losing it all, whether from fraud, poor stewardship, bad luck, a bad economy, naivete, hubris, miscalculation or whatever cause, you come away with the overwhelming feeling of (with apologies to Jimmy Stewart in the famous scene in Potter’s office) “well, it’s NOT going to be me!” That's a very good point. If one is financially secure, one does not need to take risks, because becoming a LOT richer probably won't buy more happiness. I am not incredibly rich. But I have enough to live ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Unwanted Real Estate - can I transfer it to a Trust?
Replies: 8
Views: 1125

Re: Unwanted Real Estate - can I transfer it to a Trust?

Bogleheads, I own a property occupied by my mother. Unfortunately, she has cat-lady/hoarder tendencies and I need to throw in the towel and get out from under the liabilities created by her actions. Is it possible for me to transfer the property from my name into a Trust which is owned my kids, but which she administers? The idea would be that she can go nuts and racking-up legal bills and fines and what-not, but at the end of it all, my kids would receive the residual value after she passes. The state is California. Thanks for any advice on this Hail Mary idea. I can't see anything but trouble in this. If you want to free yourself of this situation, you could gift her the property? Otherwise I would consult an attorney. Tricky situation. ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 175
Views: 17698

Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

Why would one want to entrust capital to an asset that consists of 47% Chinese and Taiwan common stocks? I realize that knee jerk Bogleheads aren’t supposed to think about things like this, but really? Taiwan there is geopolitical risk. The country itself is a rule of law democracy. The biggest stock in the Taiwanese market is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC). From memory over 25% of the index. The world's largest semiconductor manufacturer and with the most advanced "fab" technology. Bigger than Samsung. Bigger than Intel. Certainly bigger than Nvidia. Why would one *not* want to hold this stock? I would say this. If there is a war over Taiwan, it is disastrous. But it's disastrous everywhere - not least for...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 25, 2024 5:56 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Portfolio for move to UK
Replies: 29
Views: 5038

Re: Portfolio for move to UK

Thanks Blake. The non-domicile tax benefits never occurred to me! My domicile of birth is Republic of Ireland. I assume some capital gains and some dividends from VWRL are from UK based companies, and so are not classified as foreign income? Will Interactive Brokers break this down clearly for me? I understand current rules are that any foreign income I don’t plan to remit to UK is not taxable. So under current rules, once I simply don’t send any foreign income to my UK account, it is tax free? The new rules seem the same, only that this will only last for 4 years now? I suppose another cost basis reset at the end of the 4 year period could also be a consideration, as only the capital gain made on the UK based companies would be subject to...
by Valuethinker
Sun Mar 24, 2024 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Replies: 246
Views: 40591

Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here

Quite a few comments that posters here are "too conservative". Listen when we counsel many of the, often new, posters here, it's not because we are old fuddy duddies collecting our Social Security and talking about our glory days in the Luftwaffe together ... I absolutely love that image. Experience does count for something, among people who can learn and absorb. I think many of us learned the hard way. I made some very stupid investing decisions when I was young. Fortunately, I didn't have much money then, and I had a well-paying job, so, though it seemed painful at the time, the long-term effects were minimal. Career. Love. Finance. Made all the stupid decisions and mistakes. What is important, even as we get to our ages, is th...
by Valuethinker
Sun Mar 24, 2024 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 201
Views: 19935

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

P.S. I personally lost an unimportant amount of money buying stock in Digital Equipment Corporation on what I thought was a dip, saying "Wall Street just doesn't understand. I've used DEC computers for years and I really know just how good they are." P.P.S. An retired airline pilot put me on to Juan Browne 'Blancolirio's' YouTube channel, https://www.youtube.com/@blancolirio . He's an airline pilot with American Airlines, which to me is an assurance that he's going to be quite careful to be factually accurate about what he says, and his simple byt detauked descriptions of the details of unfolding news like the door problem are interesting. He illustrates them with references to official reports, charts of the airspeed and altitud...
by Valuethinker
Sun Mar 24, 2024 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do Russian stock holders in the west have any chance of recovery?
Replies: 11
Views: 1795

Re: Do Russian stock holders in the west have any chance of recovery?

No politics please. I (American) own ERUS ishares that stopped trading in 2022 when the conflict started. I have no problem holding the assets for ever or even let a Russian fiduciary hold it for me in "frozen" status until things settle down. Im sure in in 10+ years things will settle down and trading commence again. What I do not want however (which is currently happening) is Blackrock force liquidating, especially now where it cannot be traded, its essentially an almost 100% loss. So if had $100,000 invested your liquidation will be like $50. I would be okay with Blackrock dissolving but if they offered for example each holder gets a non-tradable right to their share of the proceeds that expires in the year 2099 or whenever th...
by Valuethinker
Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oxford UK and region - rent a car for vacation?
Replies: 20
Views: 1269

Re: Oxford UK and region - rent a car for vacation?

Two bits of advice. Even if you're adept at driving stick shifts, remember that you'll be shifting with your left hand, not your right - while getting used to driving on the left and through roundabouts. We didn't reserve a more costly automatic, but the rental agency gave us one with no charge for the upgrade. Also, if you have a credit card that covers the collision damage waiver internationally, like the Costco Citi Visa, use it. The coverage came in very handy for us in 2018. Bon voyage. Thank you, esp. for the tip on the Costco Citi Visa. I do have that one (among others) and will confirm coverage. Definitely need to ensure that. Now, I don't want to toot my own horn too much about being adept with a stick shift, but from prior experi...
by Valuethinker
Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oxford UK and region - rent a car for vacation?
Replies: 20
Views: 1269

Re: Oxford UK and region - rent a car for vacation?

So if you want to do Wales Wales has quite poor public transport in my experience. For example there's no north to south railway route within the country. Not sure about buses. Post 2012, local public transport, outside of London, has really been slashed. So North Wales, you will need to drive -and don't underestimate how long it will take. Just because Cardiff and Conwy are in the same country, doesn't mean they are at all close in travel times terms. You will need to drive unless you take a bus tour. I would caution you that minicabs seem to have gotten rarer and more expensive since Covid. I think a lot of the drivers either were worried about getting sick or they found jobs in distribution centres etc that were more reliable (there's a ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you setback thermostat on your electric heatpump?
Replies: 47
Views: 2754

Re: Do you setback thermostat on your electric heatpump?

We just (in December 2023) went from old gas furnace, circa 1982, to heat pump plus new efficient gas furnace backup for cold weather. I had no idea our thermostat settings for different times of day or different days of the week might be different, if we want efficiency and to not strain the system, from when we had gas furnace only. What the dickens is a heat strip? I guess I have some learning to do! And it might be good to have this learning before cooling season arrives, given that we have never had air conditioning until now. That was one of the main motivations for electric heat pump in the first place. Heat strip is just an auxiliary strip that kicks in if the outdoor temperature drops below a certain set temperature. It's usually ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Mar 23, 2024 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you setback thermostat on your electric heatpump?
Replies: 47
Views: 2754

Re: Do you setback thermostat on your electric heatpump?

We just (in December 2023) went from old gas furnace, circa 1982, to heat pump plus new efficient gas furnace backup for cold weather. I had no idea our thermostat settings for different times of day or different days of the week might be different, if we want efficiency and to not strain the system, from when we had gas furnace only. What the dickens is a heat strip? I guess I have some learning to do! And it might be good to have this learning before cooling season arrives, given that we have never had air conditioning until now. That was one of the main motivations for electric heat pump in the first place. Heat strip is just an auxiliary strip that kicks in if the outdoor temperature drops below a certain set temperature. It's usually ...