Search found 36181 matches

by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 32
Views: 1784

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

International stocks have returns of 2.3% per year over the last 5 years and have been down up to 20% YTD and you're worried things are overvalued? At what point would you feel they're okay to invest in? If they have had 2% returns for 1 decade, 2? If they drop 50% in the previous year? It's about ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total return uk index (i.e. including dividends reinvested)
Replies: 1
Views: 61

Re: Total return uk index (i.e. including dividends reinvested)

Dimson Marsh and Staunton publish an annual update under the auspices of Credit Suisse, every year. The full report is no longer available for free, but they do post a summary plus a summary presentation each year if you google it. That's the most commonly used source for returns for international m...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?
Replies: 9
Views: 594

Re: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?

Every year a new generation that didn't experience the crash enters the market place, and an older one leaves. Sure, the stories remain, but for some of the new investors we might as well be talking about the 1930's, as 10 years is a third or more of their life. The next recession will be what it i...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does negative interest rate work?
Replies: 7
Views: 816

Re: How does negative interest rate work?

This is a pithy, often repeated, quote but wrong. People can't just hide money under their mattress. There are some other options. Pre-paid bills are a good example. Prepay your taxes, stock up on stamps, buy stored value and gift cards. While not prefect, the average person can "save" thousands to...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 60
Views: 2479

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

I have been watching this fund for a while and started adding it to my portfolio since last year. It has been doing very well since inception. Now I'm seriously considering using this fund as my core equity holding instead of US/foreign (currently 64/36). I have read many discussions about this fun...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 60
Views: 2479

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

From memory low beta (low vol) runs way worse than that. You are misremembering. I was not misremembering -34.1% on the worst drawdown and over 20 years to recover peak. https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/686-ignored-risks-of-factor-investing.html Also, VMVFX is buying l...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Agriculture Tax -- Using 401k's and Futures Contracts
Replies: 2
Views: 250

Re: Agriculture Tax -- Using 401k's and Futures Contracts

Hello All, I have this idea that is somewhat complex... In agriculture, farmers have the ability to gift grain to children and utilize a zero cost basis for the gift. Since the grain has not yet been marketed and a buyer has not been found there is no basis established at this point. If the child i...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?
Replies: 9
Views: 594

Re: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?

As far as I know, a big driver of recessions is fear. Fear and uncertainty will turn a mediocre/standard recession into a larger recession. 2008 seems a lot more recent than it was, I think it's still fresh in everyone minds, and we recovered as a country onto better times. A part of me thinks seei...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does negative interest rate work?
Replies: 7
Views: 816

Re: How does negative interest rate work?

In Europe and Japan short term interest rates are very negative. For example Germany 2, 5 and 10 years bond yields are -0.558%, -0.252% and 0.282%. Euribor 1 month rate is -0.368%. I wonder how the negative interest really works. I know it encourages lending as you pay less back. But for savers/inv...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I was just graduating college. The professors told us "there's nothing out there for you-- go to grad school and continue your education while this sorts itself out". Probably the worst time to be a 21 year old college kid strapped with student loan debt in the history of this country. Oh but did y...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I was in grad school in my early 30's with about $300K invested, mostly the result of a legal settlement involving a family member. I was focused on my studies and not really following the market. I saw the consumption habits of the society around me and figured that the economy as a lot bigger tha...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I think a lot of people have forgotten how scary it was in late 2008-mid 2009, if they were paying attention to what was going on... And even then, I felt like the actual T-Bills were safer than a Treasury Money Market Fund. They were. You may recall that several money market funds nearly failed in...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Junk Bond fund
Replies: 73
Views: 7241

Re: Vanguard Junk Bond fund

I think the case for holding sovereign EM bonds is stronger than US HY bonds. It's fairly obvious that US junk behaves like half-US-equity, half-US-bond. With sovereign EM bonds you are taking on much more idiosyncratic risks that have a better chance of being uncorrelated with the stock market. Of...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there value in these books?
Replies: 10
Views: 846

Re: Is there value in these books?

I would recommend that you also read " The Worldly Philosophers " by Robert Heilbroner *first*. Which puts the history of economic thought in its context (and definitely comes from a more "Liberal" view of the world). I'd advise OP to do the exact opposite, to read things in their proper order: old...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there value in these books?
Replies: 10
Views: 846

Re: Is there value in these books?

Hi, Can anyone familiar with the following works, comment on if it's worthwhile to read them: 1. Ludwig von Mises 2. F.A. Hayek 3. Adam Smith 4. Milton Friedman Please note, I'm not asking to discuss the content of the books. Just whether people think they are relevant or valuable these days? Thank...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 60
Views: 2479

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

I have been watching this fund for a while and started adding it to my portfolio since last year. It has been doing very well since inception. Now I'm seriously considering using this fund as my core equity holding instead of US/foreign (currently 64/36). I have read many discussions about this fun...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

e these same millenials with huge outstanding education debt that is akin to the debt with the mortgages. When will that come due? Will it be a similiar event? Given the way the US structures student loan debt, probably not. As I understand it, there's no bankruptcy on student loan debt. If the stu...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

It took me a while to recover from all that (and I did recover and am doing well now). Luckily I didn't touch the one bit of money my ex couldn't touch: my retirement investments. I let them ride out the crisis. Not because I was smart of anything like that. I just didn't have time to think about i...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

We were all lucky the recovery was large and swift. A longer recovery and/or deeper drop could have been horrific in many ways we can only imagine not only on a personal level but our economy, politics ...future. This is a very important point. The market recovery was swift the economic recovery wa...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

Couldn't agree more. It was really scary, for those who understood what really was going on with the core of the western financial systems. Forget the stock market meltdown, people tend to look at stock market as a measure of how scary it was, which is not at all something I was worrying about. I w...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I remember 2008 and 2009 very well. I turned 29 years old and had my second child while it was all going on. We were 100% invested in stocks but our portfolio was just approaching 6 figures when it all started so the amount of money we lost wasn't significant in the gross amount compared to our inc...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing a gas furnace and electric AC: when and how much?
Replies: 25
Views: 1285

Re: Replacing a gas furnice and electric AC: when and how much?

Yesterday I had my gas furnace serviced. Nothing was wrong with it, just the yearly checkup. The technician said it had a bad capacitor on the motor and I replaced it. It only cost $80 (part and labor). That is the only repair I've needed to make in 8 years. Then he told me my furnace was 16 years ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

At that time, I didn’t pay much attention to the markets’ ups and downs. I would receive quarterly paper statements from Fidelity, look briefly at the change in overall value, think “ugh, that doesn’t look good” (my AA was 100% stocks), and file the statements away. My lack of interest remained abo...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

Some good reads in this thread, thanks to Dandy and Valuethinker especially for sharing. I think the thread title is wrong, the crisis was 2008 to March of 2009. I was 47. I had panicked some in the 2001 decline, and moved to cash in that decline, but only briefly. Looking back I still had too high...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

What lessons were learned and what advice would you give to someone just starting who remembers it as a young person. 1. You never know your real risk tolerance. I should have modified even my moderate allocation of 55% equities a bit lower as I approached retirement age. I had no problem with stay...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 32
Views: 1784

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

Equities PE10 at 29+. Bond market facing headwinds due to rising interest rates. Real estate arguably in a housing bubble. I realize nobody knows nothin'. But in terms of pricing, is there any market that is expected to do better than flat over the next decade? I plan to stick to my AA, but it does...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

In 2008 I was mid 30s and accepted a new job across the country for a 35% salary increase. I didn't change my allocations at all, except to put more money into retirement accounts due to salary increase. I didn't have much invested to begin with (maybe 150k). Rode it out without paying much attenti...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: learning excel
Replies: 21
Views: 1808

Re: learning excel

I would like to learn to use excel spreadsheets for simple projects. Can anyone recommend an online tutorial that is low cost or free? also check Khan Academy? There's a sort of basic tutorials out there - how to input & edit formulas etc. It is then possible to get infinitely complex. Excel is nor...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I'll give an alternative viewpoint. I was a freshman/sophomore in high school. It mostly did not affect me personally (I do know that it was harder for older siblings to find internships while in college). The one thing I do remember is having a bank account with Wachovia and then Wachovia didn't e...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I was fortunate in that I remembered the 1970s and my parents' concerns. I remembered the Symbionese Liberation Army. Watergate. The Fall of Saigon. Angola. The first and second Oil Crises. Gas line ups. The Baader Meinhof Complex and Hans Martin Schleyer. The Red Brigades and the kidnapping and mur...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

A part of 'staying the course' is riding the market, including really bad times. So I am curious, and would love to learn from people's experience, what happened to you and your stocks and savings during the financial crisis of 2007–2008? How did you ride it out? How did it go? What lessons were le...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 212
Views: 31559

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

Vanguard international developed factor funds exist. They're available in Europe for 0.22%, although not multi factor unfortunately. Country weighing is weird and a black box. No country varies by more than a few percent on an absolute global weight basis so the US is always dominating at the 60% m...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED light bulbs
Replies: 127
Views: 15262

Re: LED light bulbs

* What to do with my incandescents? Didn't want to throw them out. When my stock of 100W bulbs is exhausted I'll need to get a space heater (which will probably meaning throwing out a perfectly good exhaust fan. And thus ironically using up all the electricity the LEDs are saving. :D But I complete...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 163
Views: 11424

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I was 100% stocks. Didn't care about the crash. Went to work. Lived my life. I wasn't going to use the money for several decades anyway. Found the "maybe this is the end of modern economies" stuff histrionic. I was trying to sell my house at the time which meant it took 6 months and I ended up sell...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shrinking dividends?
Replies: 30
Views: 3838

Re: Shrinking dividends?

Folks, I screwed up. I checked the source of the dividend data again, and noticed that the values were already adjusted for inflation. So when I adjusted them for inflation a second time, I produced bogus numbers. The second column in my table, which I labeled nominal values, are actually in curren...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: are pre-fabricated / manufactured homes a bad investment?
Replies: 99
Views: 6562

Re: are manufactured homes a bad investment?

https://www.diynetwork.com/shows/instant-dream-house Sears kit homes seemed to have done ok financially. Those Sears home were not prefabricated. Sears packed up everything needed to build the house and shipped it. The only thing it saves was having to buy the parts separately. And a lot of labor s...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shrinking dividends?
Replies: 30
Views: 3838

Re: Shrinking dividends?

Around 1950, corporate boards reduced dividend payouts and started using excess cash to buy back stock. This was primarily a result of changes in executive compensation from cash to stock incentive programs that included stock option programs for key employees. Rick Do you have a citation on that? ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: safest downhill ski helmet
Replies: 29
Views: 898

Re: safest downhill ski helmet

Any ski helmet is so dramatically safer than no ski helmet at all (what most of us were doing until 5 years ago) the difference between ski helmets safety wise can probably be ignored. Do you have a link for that data? My understanding is that, population-wide, helmets reduce minor injuries (scratc...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric bill with LED
Replies: 102
Views: 6750

Re: Electric bill with LED

With a gas furnace ... You get the best savings. I got a tax break to install high efficiency furnace and on demand hot water heater, I switched from oil to natural gas. The heat that used to go up the chimney is now recycled into the house. I save about $4000 a year in heat and hot water. I also s...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric bill with LED
Replies: 102
Views: 6750

Re: Electric bill with LED

Noooo it does not matter "how you heat" An Incandescent light bulb WILL be cheaper to run during heating season due to it's heat production, offsetting whatever heating method you use. Yes but the tradeoff vs. having an LED and using the heating system more makes the difference. I never said it was...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: are pre-fabricated / manufactured homes a bad investment?
Replies: 99
Views: 6562

Re: are pre-fabricated homes a bad investment?

OP, it is more about the location of the land than the condition of the buildings. The land is forever, buildings are not. My 112 year old house needs work. My 4 billion year old land is doing just fine. You'd be a really special piece of geology from before the world had a solid surface then ;-). ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 59
Views: 3510

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

I believe Ray Dalio and Bridgewater were instrumental in the creation/development of the market: From 1999: ......But not all professional investors have ignored TIPS. Ray Dalio, CEO of Bridgewater Associates, a private $20 billion-plus fund, is probably the largest holder of inflation-indexed bond...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4594

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]

Even if we assume no repeat of the 1989-90 situation, arrest of Michael Milliken and bankruptcy of Drexel Burnham Lambert, the volatility of these things is still impressive. I was somewhat surprised by this but the 1989-1990 situation looks like a non event when plotted in portfolio visualizer htt...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED light bulbs
Replies: 127
Views: 15262

Re: LED light bulbs

read somewhere before (and can't find it now) that mercury in once CFL bulb is enough to poison water in a small lake Here's an article on the subject by the Environmental Defense Fund..... http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/07/31/cfl_mercury-2/ Quote from article... The phrase "contains mercury"...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Diversifying my investment
Replies: 2
Views: 398

Re: Diversifying my investment

I recently had Vanguard perform a retirement goal analysis, but my current average annual return is slightly more than recommend investments. 8.34 vs 8.29(Average annual return) Should I make these changes and why are they recommending 0% for my tax exempt muni fund. It was tax free money from sale...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4594

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]

Here is a chart showing the NAV and Dividend trends going back to 7-10-89. The long term decline in NAV has been attributed to multiple factors including rating downgrades, early calls, buying bonds at a premium, and bid-ask spread. The fund has paid out a few relatively small capital gains distrib...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric bill with LED
Replies: 102
Views: 6750

Re: Electric bill with LED

Noooo it does not matter "how you heat" An Incandescent light bulb WILL be cheaper to run during heating season due to it's heat production, offsetting whatever heating method you use. Yes but the tradeoff vs. having an LED and using the heating system more makes the difference. If you happen to ha...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric bill with LED
Replies: 102
Views: 6750

Re: Electric bill with LED

Lighting makes up a negligible part of my electric usage. The big ones are air conditioning and the refrigerator. For me, the advantage of the new bulbs is they last practically forever and rarely need to be replaced. This. Simply look at your electric bill. How many kWh did you use? I used 758. Th...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 52
Views: 4023

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

OP, I don't think anyone can definitively break down the % reason for past underperformance of international, though if I was to throw my 2 cents in I would guess the sector composition and rising dollar were a significant portion of it, just like the sector composition and a falling dollar were th...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 52
Views: 4023

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

The reason why people say you should include alternative asset classes [such as international] is because CAPM theory, which is the intellectual underpining of modern portfolio theory and Boglehead principles, says you should. http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/finance/papers/capm2004a.pdf The cited p...