Search found 35550 matches

by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing a $1.5m windfall [Great Britain]
Replies: 9
Views: 1188

Re: Investing a $1.5m windfall [Great Britain]

Thanks for the long response. The original topic wasn't really about whether we can afford to retire - but really about how to invest the cash we have on hand today. Our current level of income will allow us to pull the trigger in 5 years and only having to live on a 2.15% withdrawal rate on averag...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any government guaranteed money market funds available?
Replies: 8
Views: 911

Re: Any government guaranteed money market funds available?

Vanguard Treasury Money Market fund holds only US treasury securities that are backed by the "full faith and credit of the United States Treasury". That's not a guarantee but its close but there's a whole lot worse problems we'll all be facing if the US treasury defaults on its debt. That fund has ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 30
Views: 2309

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

For TIPS maturing in the near future, the market estimates what these will be on the maturity date. It then adjusts today's price so that the nominal yield (i.e., the yield after adjusting for inflation) will be comparable to the yield on nominal Treasury securities maturing at the same time. ... T...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

If Carbon Dioxide is .04% of the atmosphere, why aren't we worried more about Nitrogen or Argon? Who gets the carbon offset money and how do they offset CO2? If I have to start buying air by the quart I am going to be :annoyed I assume that's not a rhetorical question? If the atmospheric concentrat...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

From memory 1 tonne of sodium hexafluoride has an equivalence to 20 000 tonnes CO2. 1 tonne methane (CH4 ie natural gas) about 20x (Have to check that. It is 100x as good an absorber of infrared light but it only lasts 20 years in the atmosphere. Need to look up what the standard adjustment factor ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors
Replies: 23
Views: 1761

Re: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors

The total bond market is diversified across all maturities (short, intermediate, and long), resulting in an intermediate average duration. I think that it's an excellent default bond investment in a portfolio (it's Taylor Larimore's bond choice in his awesome Three-Fund Portfolio). Technically, due...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

Plant a few trees and you'll be good. Plants eat carbon , it is not poison. I'd never spend money on such credits even if they were 1 cent. You are off by an order of magnitude in terms of what one would have to plant to offset one's emissions. Alas it's not a simple problem. I agree that a carbon ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

It's much harder to incentivize good behaviour because of the surplus problem (I would have done this anyways, now I get paid to do it as well!). Still, it has to be said, that I appreciate the various government incentives for my geothermal installation, which will be approximately 40% of the cost...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

http://www.samefacts.com/2018/02/energy-the-environment/burying-carbon-a-primer/ the above discusses various ways of carbon abatement - burying biochar etc. I have quoted the headers below. The technology list Start by leaving out atmospheric geoengineering (too dangerous), extra-atmospheric (pies i...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

Better question I think is, why are there carbon credits at all? Not that I agree with all the anti-pollution regulations, but if I did I would ask why should someone with more money be allowed to put more pollution into the atmosphere than he would if he had less money. If one was really serious a...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

Better question I think is, why are there carbon credits at all? Not that I agree with all the anti-pollution regulations, but if I did I would ask why should someone with more money be allowed to put more pollution into the atmosphere than he would if he had less money. If one was really serious a...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors
Replies: 23
Views: 1761

Re: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors

My wife and I are 30 plus years from retiring. I am curious if falling long term bond prices suggest a bargain for those of us with a long period until retirement? I tend to just stick with Total Bond for our retirement, but didn't know if this was a good opportunity to tilt towards Long Term index...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “The Worst Kind of Bear Market”
Replies: 23
Views: 4467

Re: “The Worst Kind of Bear Market”

I'm very, very suspicious of any article about the bond market in real terms that starts its analysis in 1940. Why? Because despite the author's claim regarding inflation, there was significant inflation during the 1940s and early 1950s, initially due to the war effort, then due to the relative lac...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

Carbon credits never made any sense to me. It's like saying rich people can drive faster than the speed limit for an extra fee. If you want to help the planet, plant more trees. On a related note, I'm currently looking for donations to plant trees on my 10,000 sq ft hillside lot. I'll accept money,...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real Estate Versus Stocks
Replies: 58
Views: 5156

Re: Real Estate Versus Stocks

I do it, and the returns on my real estate have been much, much higher than the returns on my stocks. On the flip side, my real estate is also a lot more time-consuming and a lot riskier. I'm a Boglehead in my other investments, but real estate is pretty much the exact opposite -- it's a high conce...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK capital but US resident alien
Replies: 8
Views: 528

Re: UK capital but US resident alien

I searched around but couldn't quite find the right page. I have some UK capital that I'd like to "put to use". However, I'm a US tax resident (alien; used to be UK resident). What are the pitfalls? The UK investing wiki has a warning on top that it's not intended for US tax residents. Ted Swippet ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 30
Views: 2309

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

... I don't think you can read these things off charts. If the US slips into recession, real yields could be lower in 2 years time. I would tend to buy the 5 year TIPS because then it is done and dusted. Unless there's a big swing in real yields, I wouldn't feel too stupid about it. Actually I was ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 30
Views: 2309

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

Thanks for all the interesting thoughts so far. When I look at the Fed Funds rate versus 5 year TIPS (see below), it makes me think that maybe buying 2 year TIPS as mentioned above is perhaps a decent strategy. Should we get a continuation up in the Fed Funds rate, it might be possible to get 5 yea...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

This is a 2010 article, not sure if the regulations are better now. ...the business of carbon offsets is close to a billion dollar industry with nearly no regulation, enforcement, measurements or even proof that carbon offsets are doing anything but filling the coffers of middle men and adding extr...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “The Worst Kind of Bear Market”
Replies: 23
Views: 4467

Re: “The Worst Kind of Bear Market”

It's not surprising it took investors a long time to reorient themselves towards an inflationary environment - 3 decades, in fact. And many of us who came of age in the 1970s have been slow to reorient toward a low inflation environment. I still fear inflation, probably to my detriment as I've kept...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99312

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

And who, exactly, is going to look after all these 80 90 100 something retirees that we will have? For agricultural labour we will import workers on seasonal contracts. That is how English fruit is picked now. Perhaps we shall do the same for care workers. Most likely that, or robots. It's hard to ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

I thought Palm oil was terrible for the environment because of the way forests were cleared in Indonesia. However, on a recent trip to Australia, an exhibit at the zoo talked about sustainable Palm oil.... Does this mean I can go back to eating Nutella, the only item on my diet that contains Palm o...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Large Cap Value - valuation?
Replies: 16
Views: 994

Re: US Large Cap Value - valuation?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4180641-another-look-growth-versus-value https://www.longtermtrends.net/growth-stocks-vs-value-stocks/ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dominance-of-growth-over-value-is-a-trade-thats-nowhere-near-over-goldman-says-2018-03-19 https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we downgrade our house?
Replies: 43
Views: 3763

Re: Should we downgrade our house?

We are very likely moving to Atlanta. It's for a good job opportunity, and it also presents us with a unique opportunity to adjust our lifestyle in a way that could greatly increase our savings. For a very similar monthly mortgage to what we have now we could get more house in a walkable neighborho...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “The Worst Kind of Bear Market”
Replies: 23
Views: 4467

Re: “The Worst Kind of Bear Market”

I'm very, very suspicious of any article about the bond market in real terms that starts its analysis in 1940. Why? Because despite the author's claim regarding inflation, there was significant inflation during the 1940s and early 1950s, initially due to the war effort, then due to the relative lac...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Large Cap Value - valuation?
Replies: 16
Views: 994

Re: US Large Cap Value - valuation?

US Large Cap Value has underperformed US Large Cap Growth very significantly over the last 5-10 years. Does anybody have data how Value stocks are currently valued compared to their own history? When looking at the Spider S&P 500 Value ETF (SPYV) in Morningstar I can see that the Forward P/E ratio ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

Where are you buying offsets for $3.30/ton per year? I just pulled that number from the link I posted in the original post. I saw other numbers, like $10/t (2200lbs), but looks like not all offsets are created equal. Even at that price, seems pretty cheap to me. I don't fully understand the credit....
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

Where are you buying offsets for $3.30/ton per year? I just pulled that number from the link I posted in the original post. I saw other numbers, like $10/t (2200lbs), but looks like not all offsets are created equal. Even at that price, seems pretty cheap to me. I don't fully understand the credit....
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

Note the European Emission Trading System emissions credits are up around 40 Euros I believe. Per tonne emitted. System seems to be doing what it was designed to do. The Dec EUA futures contract closed at 19.77 Eur on Friday, peak was around 30 before the financial crisis, but was under 10 from 201...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99312

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Europe + Japan make up about 60% of ex-US. What’s the basis for expecting any kind of significant economic expansion in those areas over the next decade? The US very well may be headed for a dark period, but I wouldn’t look to those areas to save the day. Waiting around mean reversion (which might ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing a $1.5m windfall [Great Britain]
Replies: 9
Views: 1188

Re: Investing a $1.5m windfall [Great Britain]

Hello - first post on the forum Following a family decision aiming at changing our lifestyle, we sold our central London home to move out to the British country side, in a more modestly priced house. Through this operation, we have netted $1.5m, now sitting on a checking account. Now comes the time...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 30
Views: 2309

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

Every once in awhile lately I mull buying some 5 year TIPS in retirement accounts. Maybe 10% of our FI to start with. 5 year TIPS because we are retired at age 70 and can easily hold to maturity. The current rates are starting to look tempting. Should I be tempted? The current rate is 1.07%. Here i...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3635

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

In the 1940's and early 1950's, cash and short-term bonds were slaughtered. All fixed income securities were slaughtered due to the government not allowing yields to go up to reflect ongoing high inflation. Gold ownership was illegal. There were no obvious shelters, people having been just burned b...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3037

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

They are cheap because supply far outweighs demand. Utilities are already producing energy from alternative sources. Let’s say 15% of energy is being sourced from alternative sources. If we do nothing, we are all reducing the carbon footprint by 15%. If someone wants to use 100% alternative energy,...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3635

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Nonetheless, I believe most investors (US) should have up to half their bond weighting in TIPS bonds. And that USians should generally buy the maximum number of ibonds they are allowed, every year (assuming other investing priorities are met). I personally own no Series I bonds. I'm not sure if tha...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3635

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

I have no opinion on the future of bonds, but I would take issue with the consensus here that "As a defensive strategy, the Maginot Line served its purpose." The purpose of the Maginot Line, I would suggest to you, was to prevent France from being invaded by Germany. That is, the point of the dumb ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3289

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

OK, now I have what Burton Malkiel wrote in the 2015 edition of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street." I said "he trashed it" and that's correct. He spends a full chapter on it, chapter 11, pp. 260-288, "Is Smart Beta Really Smart?" He knocks down everything, listing "the positives" and "the negatives" ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3635

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

...I think it's just a good reminder to diversify more than the 3 fund. Factors, reinsurance, alt lending, bonds, stocks, etc. and any new products that add additional diversification at a reasonable price with a decent expected return. The tricky bit is 'decent expected return.' I still have some ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3635

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Valuethinker, my understanding was that the French loss in World War II had much to do with tactics. My understanding is that the French tanks were actually better than the German ones but that the Germans massed their tanks in Armored Divisions whereas the French spread the tanks out among the inf...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 123
Views: 14505

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

All companies that are successful in a given era are market oriented. But IMO like all empires, leaders change or environments change or sometimes even a little luck in timing is off and then we say they are not market oriented. If Sears, GE and the Roman Empire can all stop innovating then we shou...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3635

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

I mean, who predicted the World Trade center being brought down as the cause of the 2001 crash? While we're debunking myths... I've seen this casually mentioned a few times on this forum, but I don't think there's much evidence to associate 9/11 with a crash. S&P 500 earnings and the value of the i...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3635

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Nice read by Valuethinker. I've always been interested in WW II history, but couldn't have summed up the war as nicely as he did. I thought the reasons we are Bogleheads is we don't have to worry about that which is unknowable? I don't believe anyone here knows what the next disaster is going to be...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10752

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

At the risk of being called those lovely names again found in this thread above, I genuinely have fundamental disagreements with how certain countries are politically run. Serious concerns related to human rights, individual liberty, self-determination, state interference, corruption, etc., and I f...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3635

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Good read from Matt Topley about some comments by Jeremy Schwartz https://matttopley.com/topleys-top-ten-october-19-2018/. It's a truism that generals fight the last war and that investors prepare for the last down turn. I think we underestimate the chance of a 1970s type scenario where both bonds ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 3830

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

To be fair, it’s not as if bond yields have no natural level. But the natural level is I think roughly related to gdp growth. Ie I think long term real rates might be some function of long term real gdp growth. And I don’t think that level is lower than it used to be. I respectfully disagree. Aging...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 43
Views: 3914

Re: Corporate politics/culture

I've had some real drag out fights with people on this board telling me I am a chump because I work in this industry and dont make 300k, but I value work-life balance and great culture over the $$$. Cheers :beer I know too many casualties of high powered financial services employers. I also know to...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 43
Views: 3914

Re: Corporate politics/culture

Consultants can provide real insights into market & competitor dynamics. They an go out there and interview customers etc. and identify actual trends and perceived strengths and weaknesses. Also sometimes you get deep specialisms e.g. supply chain and they can provide real insight. On the other han...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 43
Views: 3914

Re: Corporate politics/culture

The thing I shake my head about is all the young 20-somethings who start here in junior roles... who never worked anywhere else. Complain about the silliest things or get focused only on the fact that Google pays more and have no idea how lucky we are. Every generation makes the same mistakes due t...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99312

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I just looked at the price charge for VEU (Total International Vanguard ETF) and in August 2008 before the Financial Crisis kicked in, the ETF traded in the low 48s. Price today: 48.28. That's more than 10 years of earning nothing other than the dividend. Incredible. And the 48 back in 2008 was alr...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99312

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Europe + Japan make up about 60% of ex-US. What’s the basis for expecting any kind of significant economic expansion in those areas over the next decade? The US very well may be headed for a dark period, but I wouldn’t look to those areas to save the day. Waiting around mean reversion (which might ...