Search found 35460 matches

by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Europe Domiciled REIT ETFs?
Replies: 8
Views: 451

Re: Europe Domiciled REIT ETFs?

In 'A Random Walk on Wall Street' REIT investments are described as good sources of diversification and protection against inflation. I've come to the conclusion that European investors barely have access to ETFs in this sector. Among iShares, Vanguard and Wisdomtree's European website's I did not ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Europe Domiciled REIT ETFs?
Replies: 8
Views: 451

Re: Europe Domiciled REIT ETFs?

Was just reading about bubbles, most of them I heard before. (They still sell tulips here in the Netherlands.) Regarding REITs I took a look at the Case-Shiller Inflation adjusted housing prices in the USA: they seem to be at the levels of 2006: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPCS20RSA However:...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 108
Views: 12365

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

It was hard for a retailer catering to mass tastes like Sears to keep up. Agree. I've already commented, with links, elsewhere in this thread, on the fact that "changes in retailing" do not provide the whole story of what happened to Sears, and what was done to Sears, under its current management. ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 108
Views: 12365

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

Just to add another comment...I remember the phase when Sears tried having a Stock Brokerage desk in the store. I think it was Dean Whiter (spelling?) or something close. I had left my first employer after college and had a few ESOP shares of stock. Was able to sell those shares using this service....
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Europe Domiciled REIT ETFs?
Replies: 8
Views: 451

Re: Europe Domiciled REIT ETFs?

In 'A Random Walk on Wall Street' REIT investments are described as good sources of diversification and protection against inflation. I've come to the conclusion that European investors barely have access to ETFs in this sector. Among iShares, Vanguard and Wisdomtree's European website's I did not ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3745
Views: 1066370

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Black Panther , on Netflix. In comparison to previous Marvel movies, I thought the plot was creative and was presented from a very different perspective. Stan Lee made his expected cameo appearance. I liked it. Previously - Wonder Woman , on DVD. The first half was boring and predictable. It got mo...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3745
Views: 1066370

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Columbus The real star of this film is Columbus, Indiana, which is a mecca of the Modernist period in architecture - particularly the works of Finnish architect Ero Saarinen (sp?). https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5990474/ However the 2 main actors, one Korean-American (John Cho - Mr Sulu in the new St...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 108
Views: 12365

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

Actually, you could turn your entire argument around and say that it was consumer greed that caused the decline of Sears/Kmart/et al. If Americans can get cheaper stuff from Korea/Japan/China/Vietnam, they generally will. But where would they buy it? It's not as if consumers can deal directly with ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bond Funds
Replies: 45
Views: 2415

Re: Emerging Market Bond Funds

Foreign currency denominated they are more volatile. But that includes more long term upside potential if you believe in convergence to Purchasing Power Parity. Research Affiliates' projection of own currency EMB as among top expected return/top future Sharpe Ratio pick is based on that. Do you hav...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 44
Views: 3162

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

As an accountant, I would define cash and cash equivalents as short-term, highly liquid investments with a maturity of three months or less at the time of purchase. The items included as cash and cash equivalents must also be unrestricted, i.e. you cannot pledge such money as collateral for loans. ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:01 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: michael survivors
Replies: 16
Views: 1882

Re: michael survivors

You don't need online backup if you have thumb drives in appropriate places besides your home. I can't imagine why people leave important files online, just waiting to be hacked. I accept the point about hacking in the Cloud. Conversely you can lose all access to the places you put your thumb drive...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?
Replies: 12
Views: 1033

Re: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?

Those who ask “what have we learned from the past?” have similar interests as those who believe future impactful occurrences have precedents in the past that are worth analyzing. Others argue that some of the major impactful events in the past were unprecedented and could not be considered probable...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?
Replies: 12
Views: 1033

Re: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?

The big events are in bold 1929 Great Depression 1973 Energy Crisis 1980 Farm Crisis maybe? 1979-80 was the Second Oil Crisis, associated with the Iranian Revolution. Oil went from $12 /bl to $40/ bl, as large a rise as in the first Oil Crisis of 1973 ($3 to $12)*. It also saw the beginning of the ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?
Replies: 12
Views: 1033

Re: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?

What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years? WW1, WW2, Vietnam War, the First Gulf War, Arab-Israeli War, Smoot-Hawley tariffs, President Teddy Roosevelt personally threatening companies he didn't like, 9/11, the severe drought of the 1930s, the 1938 New England Hurricane, the 1944 Gre...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1M Portfolio - Asset allocation for mid 40's [Australia]
Replies: 13
Views: 1165

Re: 1M Portfolio - Asset allocation for mid 40's [Australia]

If you have big exposure to Australian residential real estate I would not be adding Australian commercial property. The recession that hits one would hit the other. The Australian stock index is heavily financial services and natural resources. The same factors that would hit Australian real estat...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hong Kong Money Market Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 758

Re: Hong Kong Money Market Fund

I'm in a similar situation as you (western expat living in HK, although I'm not from the UK and I'm more or less planning on staying here) and I'm just starting to deal with this issue myself (in my 20s and saving up for a house in this crazy place). I'm currently putting my cash savings into FLOA ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1M Portfolio - Asset allocation for mid 40's [Australia]
Replies: 13
Views: 1165

Re: 1M Portfolio - Asset allocation for mid 40's [Australia]

Hi Bogleheads, I'm looking for some input on the following fund portfolio and how to allocate 1M. > Australian, mid 40's > 1M already invested directly in Australian residential property > Like the idea of a simple 3 fund portfolio with rebalancing, open to only one fund or 4-6 funds also > 1M to i...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95109

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I don’t have the numbers in front me, but I’m pretty sure 5 years ago those P/E ratios were very similar. Looking at the below chart, over the last 5 years S&P 500 prices have increased by more than (ten year average of) earnings. It is more expensive now than it was five years ago. http://www.mult...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rate of return calculation
Replies: 4
Views: 512

Re: Rate of return calculation

As per other post only excels XIRR function will give the right answer.
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hong Kong Money Market Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 758

Re: Hong Kong Money Market Fund

A few options on the LSE, USD below. I am a British Expat so would GBP be a better option? No inclination to head home just yet though. VUTY (Vanguard) IBTA Accumulating (Blackrock iShares) IBTS Distributing (Blackrock iShares) Currently having cash sitting wasting away to inflation is really frust...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the US bull become addicted to corporate buybacks?
Replies: 16
Views: 1462

Re: Has the US bull become addicted to corporate buybacks?

CNN had an interesting piece on the how the markets have fared this year with the huge uptick in buyback programs. 1. Corporate buybacks now account for the largest share of trading in US stocks, surpassing individual and institutional buying. 2. This year corporations will buy back more than $1 tr...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the US bull become addicted to corporate buybacks?
Replies: 16
Views: 1462

Re: Has the US bull become addicted to corporate buybacks?

CNN had an interesting piece on the how the markets have fared this year with the huge uptick in buyback programs. 1. Corporate buybacks now account for the largest share of trading in US stocks, surpassing individual and institutional buying. 2. This year corporations will buy back more than $1 tr...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hong Kong Money Market Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 758

Re: Hong Kong Money Market Fund

Hi, I have been following the BH community forums for the past few years and appreciate all the feedback and passion the group has for finance. I am based in Hong Kong where the savings rates on accounts is minimal. A new (the only I believe) money market fund has been launched in July/August and I...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 68
Views: 3757

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

My undergraduate college roommate was an Econ major. After graduation, he went into the USAF and wound up as a GIB (Guy in Back....Air Force technical slang for "Electronic Warfare Officer") of an F-15 Strike Eagle during the Gulf War. Last I heard, he was a technical writer at an aerospace company...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in ETF (different currencies)
Replies: 9
Views: 494

Re: Investing in ETF (different currencies)

It also depends on changes in spot rate. I am UK investor. I buy USD 100 of stock. That does not change in value over 6 months. I sell but USD has fallen 10 per cent. Thus I have a 10 dollar USD capital gain (In pounds) To pay. But only here because in your example here you are (I think) assuming p...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Company Pension: Single Life Annuity vs Accelerated Income option
Replies: 3
Views: 372

Re: Company Pension: Single Life Annuity vs Accelerated Income option

After I was laid off from my former employer, I am eligible take a company pension at anytime until full retirement age of 65. I intend to take a single life annuity pension next year when I turn 60. I am single so there's no spouse or beneficiary to designated. There is the option of taking an acc...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advice for Swiss investor
Replies: 3
Views: 329

Re: Portfolio advice for Swiss investor

Hi there, I need some help choosing a portfolio. A few words about me: 37 years old Married, father of two Mechanical engineer Swiss resident and Swiss citizen My financial situation (all in CHF) - 470k invested in our house - 100k in Swiss pension system (2nd and 3rd pillar) - 100k in cash ready t...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4349

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

I see this as a recurring theme over tye past 20years or so - a fall in us stocks leads to a fall in European stocks the next day.if these walk so much hand under hand, are we really getting any diversification by investubg in international stocks? If international doesn't [/i] offer diversificatio...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4349

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

Say the Dollar declines against other currencies by 20%. All other things remaining equal (which they won't - but that's another discussion), would we expect to see international stocks go up by ~20%? If the international fund is unhedged, yes. And of course that gets reversed when currencies swing...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in ETF (different currencies)
Replies: 9
Views: 494

Re: Investing in ETF (different currencies)

you might have different tax treatment depending upon the currency the ETF is labelled in. Suppose you buy an ETF labelled in USD, the assets go up 10% as measured in pound sterlin, but if the USD goes up 10% too, the ETF value in USD won't have changed. So if you sell it you will have made no prof...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 835

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

While I do not know this for sure, it seems the poster is from the UK. Yes, I am. I don't have a defined benefit pension, though. I'm self employed, and have a pension which only I pay into (if you don't count the tax breaks the state provides), and I can change the funds it's invested in, and inde...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 835

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

To Original Poster Be very careful of the £1 million lifetime annual limit on pensions. Which only buys you 25k pa of annuity income pa. That was George Osbornes stealth tax rise and it was huge. And most of its victims haven't been hit by it yet. At 6 per cent return a portfolio of 250k will hit it...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 835

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

While I do not know this for sure, it seems the poster is from the UK. I have limited (dare I say nonexistent understanding) of UK pensions. I do believe there is some form of National Health Insurance, but I don't know to what extent there is financial risk for those insured. So perhaps less risk ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 835

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

While I do not know this for sure, it seems the poster is from the UK. Yes, I am. I don't have a defined benefit pension, though. I'm self employed, and have a pension which only I pay into (if you don't count the tax breaks the state provides), and I can change the funds it's invested in, and inde...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 835

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

balbrec2 wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:44 pm
This is the first I have ever heard of a pension (defined benefit plan) that could be managed
by the person to whom the pension is due.
No.

OP is British.

We call a self managed defined contribution scheme a Self Invested Personal Pension or SIPP
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 89
Views: 3460

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

The EMH is not an argument from authority. It has its own internal logic. Academics are not stupid. The fact that it has internal consistency does not make it true. The internal consistency may be useful in the academic world; papers can be published and people can get tenure thanks to it; but it d...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 89
Views: 3460

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

JoMoney wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:16 pm
The irony of the Nobel for Prof. Fama and EMH, is Prof. Shiller receiving a Nobel for CAPE at the same time.
The Nobel committee often balances its prizes in just that way.

Btw Shiller did not receive his Nobel for CAPE10
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie question - comparing investments to broad exchanges
Replies: 3
Views: 168

Re: Newbie question - comparing investments to broad exchanges

Good point ValueThinker. In my very rudimentary calculation I was merely taking the price on January 2 and comparing it to today's price to calculate YTD return. That does seemingly completely ignore dividends. You really want closing price on 31 December also or opening price on 2 Jan. You do need...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 44
Views: 3162

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

joe8d wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:30 pm
Any interest bearing debt instrument, I consider a bond.
That doesn't really work for instruments issued w no coupon and 1 year or less to maturity. Ie a T Bill.

Similarly you can have CDs of various maturities.
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 44
Views: 3162

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

Any interest bearing debt instrument, I consider a bond. Perhaps. But how about those 10-year "bonds" which had no interest (or even had negative interest)? Those were debts but without any interest whatsoever. https://www.barrons.com/articles/beware-of-global-bonds-in-a-world-without-yield-1466173...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 44
Views: 3162

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

6-months is a “bill” (re: T-bills), and I think the general term would be that it’s a debt security, not just bonds. Sorry, not too far off my S7....bills-notes-bonds still implanted. Bills, under 1 year, short term Notes, 1 to 10 yrs, mid-term (“notes don’t get pregnant”) Bonds, 15 to 30 yr, long ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system
Replies: 9
Views: 761

Re: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system

Private companies as a portion of the economy vary immensely across different countries and isn't that proportional to national GDP. FRED has data on the stock market cap to GDP ratio for many countries; here is Germany: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01DEA156NWDB And here is USA: https://f...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bond Funds
Replies: 45
Views: 2415

Re: Emerging Market Bond Funds

I'm pretty persuaded by the MPT/factor idea that even a 60/40 world stock/intermediate treasury portfolio has substantially all of its risk dominated by equity beta. I think many accumulators have income and assets that is also pretty correlated with beta (e.g. if you work at Google or Goldman Sach...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system
Replies: 9
Views: 761

Re: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system

Private companies as a portion of the economy vary immensely across different countries and isn't that proportional to national GDP. FRED has data on the stock market cap to GDP ratio for many countries; here is Germany: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01DEA156NWDB And here is USA: https://f...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Add-on Hot water Heat pump
Replies: 6
Views: 356

Re: Add-on Hot water Heat pump

What's the purpose of the heat pump? Wouldn't they have to be almost 100% efficient to save any energy? Because heat pumps move heat rather than creating heat, they can be more than 100% efficient (e.g. they add more heat than they consume) allowing for significant savings vs. resistance heat. And ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4174

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

Stocks are not "on sale" but are actually repriced to reflect a new, slower growth world. So you mean that the growth prospects for European small caps suddenly changed on Wednesday at 3.30 pm (when their price suddenly dropped), and have today improved? No I mean the marginal buyer & seller in the...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie question - comparing investments to broad exchanges
Replies: 3
Views: 168

Re: Newbie question - comparing investments to broad exchanges

I'm very much a "set it and forget it" type for investments. I have never really bothered to check the rate of returns all that much of my specific index funds. I have a little "stocks" icon that came on my phone that shows the big exchanges (if that's even the right word) such as the Nasdaq, Dow J...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum vs pension
Replies: 14
Views: 1365

Re: Lump sum vs pension

Thanks for all your information. Your Points are well taken. This is one of the biggest decisions of my life to date. I feel I could manage the lump sum but if the stock market tanks for the next 5 years I do not want to look like a fool. I remember back in 2008-2009 people that retired from my com...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 68
Views: 3757

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

Thanks again. There has been a lot more posted since she read this thread so I will have her look at it again. She's scoffing a bit because she doesn't "want" to be an accountant. She is a teenager after all and they can be a bit idealistic. But she also tends to be a little more practical than mos...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4174

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

Stock prices are only weakly linked to academic theories and financial facts. Majority of pricing moves are based on emotional expectations. Stocks, in other words, tend to follow a random walk ;-). Hence Burton Malkiel "A Random Walk down Wall Street". So especially when talking about an S&P 500 o...