Search found 35830 matches

by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 401
Views: 76061

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I think there was a 60 year period or something where bonds crushed stocks. There have only been two 30 year periods where long-term bonds (which very few hold) just edged out stock returns. 19th century was very different - bonds outperformed stocks for long periods. That's quite an interesting re...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

Here's my guess. c. 64% of Americans own their own home. The vast majority of the "obese and broke" don't own their own home. Almost all are Americans in the lower half of the income distribution. I realize this varies a lot by city - you can make $100k a year in NYC and never be able to own a home...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: GE Preferred STOCK in Vanguard short bond funds??
Replies: 9
Views: 965

Re: Bloomberg: GE Preferred STOCK in Vanguard short bond funds??

Dividend stocks (especially Dividend Aristocrats) are a bond proxy, so I don’t see the problem. Stocks are stocks - equity not debt. No matter how you dress up the dividend income. The Modigliani Miller arguments about debt and equity hold in a world where: there are no taxes, liquidity is always a...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: GE Preferred STOCK in Vanguard short bond funds??
Replies: 9
Views: 965

Re: Bloomberg: GE Preferred STOCK in Vanguard short bond funds??

GE looked to be about as solid a credit name as you can imagine in corporate America. Says who? A garbage-can of a company, if you ask me. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GE/balance-sheet?p=GE Look ed to be, I said - past tense. I don't know when they made the investment but it was the largest comp...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US expat in UK / HMRC non-reporting funds
Replies: 2
Views: 231

Re: US expat in UK / HMRC non-reporting funds

I've been trying to educate myself on the PFIC/HMRC Reporting "catch-22" that US citizens in the UK face in advance of a possible move. I currently hold Fidelity Total Market (FSKAX) and Fidelity Total International (FTIHX) in a taxable account, and my research suggests I'd be better off selling th...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How high can House prices go
Replies: 41
Views: 4727

Re: How high can House prices go

I dunno, I'd look at other countries and see how loans work in them if you want to extrapolate some kind of worst case. No reason loans need to be 30 years. They could be 50. So how high do house prices go if you assume a 50 year mortgage and 50% of the salary goes to debt? $120,000 salary pays for...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: GE Preferred STOCK in Vanguard short bond funds??
Replies: 9
Views: 965

Re: Bloomberg: GE Preferred STOCK in Vanguard short bond funds??

"Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund" is an actively managed fund. Read the prospectus and investment strategy for the fund, they can do a variety of things on the margins while having most of the fund strictly in bonds. https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/p028.pdf?2210142530 ... Each of th...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: GE Preferred STOCK in Vanguard short bond funds??
Replies: 9
Views: 965

Re: Bloomberg: GE Preferred STOCK in Vanguard short bond funds??

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-11-13/ge-s-preferred-stock-looms-large-for-vanguard-and-pimco What is this garbage perpetual preferred stock doing in the Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund? Makes me want to go all individual bonds. The dividends are effectively the security...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rooftop solar panels cost per installed watt
Replies: 5
Views: 685

Re: Rooftop solar panels cost per installed watt

This is my go-to forum for solar power: http://solarpaneltalk.com/ $2.75/watt would be considered exceptional, $4/watt is high. If you can negotiate to $3-3.25/watt it would be a very good price. Price will vary depending on the quality of the equipment and the difficulty of the install, so that mu...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [EU] Review my portfolio & investment plan
Replies: 10
Views: 612

Re: [EU] Review my portfolio & investment plan

Please pay more attention to the statements of Valuethinker then mine. They are more precise and based on a deeper knowledge. That is by no means always the case! However Nisiprius had some very good posts about just this issue. We argue interminably about US v. International, Value v. Total Index,...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [EU] Review my portfolio & investment plan
Replies: 10
Views: 612

Re: [EU] Review my portfolio & investment plan

You have a 60/40 AA, you intend to invest in the whole world with the known risks for SC and EM, you have difficulty finding good funds for your bond funds. You could also consider to lower the risk of your equity allocation, but make it larger: e.g 70%-75%-80% IWDA - it will be less volatile then ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

I just read in our local paper that roughly 45% of people in our area are obese and broke. They're 1 paycheck away from being totally broke. Paycheck to paycheck and obese. But are these the people who own houses? My coworker and her husband bought a condo a year ago when they found out they were p...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

What I am not aware of is evidence that *in aggregate* American consumers are overleveraged (I think they are not yet back to where they were in 2006?) nor that mortgage finance has become excessively speculative? Or that affordability is way out of norms (at least norms established in the last 25 ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected nominal return in 80/20 stock/bond fund for next 10 years
Replies: 10
Views: 1799

Re: Expected nominal return in 80/20 stock/bond fund for next 10 years

Hello, What is the Expected nominal return in 80/20 stock/bond fund for next 10 years. If we look at the historic data we have - Dimson Marsh Staunton Credit Suisse is the most authoritative study of international returns. You can get the summary off the web. Over 116 years for nearly 20 countries....
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is NOW a good time to start ETF saving journey?
Replies: 13
Views: 1294

Re: Is NOW a good time to start ETF saving journey?

Hi everyone! Thanks for keeping this forum active - it helps us newbies to wrap our heads around investing theory and practice :happy I'm 30 yo, resident of Ukraine. Got some savings but never dealt with any kind of securities. I studied ETF topic for quite a while and kind of made GO decision on t...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can you suggest where to live if work at UCLA
Replies: 40
Views: 2950

Re: Can you suggest where to live if work at UCLA

Considering the world famous traffic issues in the LA Metro, I think you want to consider the traffic flow carefully. Yes, there are rush hour traffic patterns and there are ongoing traffic issues. If your work hours are conventional ones, say 8-5, you definitely want to avoid driving in the rush h...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's everyone currently in?
Replies: 93
Views: 8002

Re: What's everyone currently in?

Hi everyone I'm just curious with all the volatility in the market right now what's everyone currently invested in? I have my Roth IRA with VTI, BND, VXUS which is very basic I haven't touched it in years but with all this volatility I'm thinking I may want to. Zeusy Zeus: You are invested in The T...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's everyone currently in?
Replies: 93
Views: 8002

Re: What's everyone currently in?

Hi everyone I'm just curious with all the volatility in the market right now what's everyone currently invested in? I have my Roth IRA with VTI, BND, VXUS which is very basic I haven't touched it in years but with all this volatility I'm thinking I may want to. Hold tight. Hodl as they say in bitco...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

Real estate is expensive. But I don't think it's a bubble because real estate is not particularly overpriced when compared to other assets. All assets, including stocks and bonds, are priced high. I read the situation as a low interest rate environment driving all asset prices up, rather than a rea...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can you suggest where to live if work at UCLA
Replies: 40
Views: 2950

Re: Can you suggest where to live if work at UCLA

I have a potential job at UCLA but I am not familiar with the area. If you were moving to this area, where would you look if you wanted to buy a home? What neighborhoods are good/safe/decent places to live? Can you tell me anything I need to know in terms of areas to look and areas to avoid and any...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

I don't know. If there is a bubble I can't really sell my home and live under an overpass till prices have fallen when I can buy rebuy my home for less in a couple years. The whole point about housing. In that most homeowners are buy-and-hold. It's only the buyer and seller at the margin who sets p...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

From what I have seen in the northern parts of San Diego county prices are plateauing, they are getting to a point where there aren't enough capable buyers I think. To me it's looks like ~12x the median income starts becoming the upper limit for North County San Diego cities. At least for SFHs. And...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

I disagree with the notion that changes in interest rates are a significant problem. Many act as if it's a crisis when rates rise by 1/4%. Hah! A 1/4% rise on a $500,000 loan is about $75 per monthly payment. On a nationwide basis, I doubt the average real estate loan is $500,000. So the impact is ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How long have you had, or did you have, your HP-12C calculator?
Replies: 72
Views: 2607

Re: How long have you had, or did you have, your HP-12C calculator?

I wonder if y'all can satisfy my curiosity. Awhile back I heard somewhere (it may have been on Bogleheads, it may have been elsewhere) that it's fairly common for people to have, and to use, their HP-12C financial calculator for decades. Pretty remarkable given the planned obsolescence of consumer ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [EU] Review my portfolio & investment plan
Replies: 10
Views: 612

Re: [EU] Review my portfolio & investment plan

Nothing wrong with your conclusion but note how misleading the "average" return is. There's lots of reason to think stock returns do not follow a distribution with a mean and variance - Benoit Mandelbrot's The Misbehaviour (or Misbehavior on Amazon US) of Markets is a great introduction (so are the...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond prices vs yields
Replies: 16
Views: 1121

Re: Bond prices vs yields

I want to admit to being totally confused by bonds. The yield appears to be putting money in my virtual pocket as the price appears to be depleting my bottom line. Would anyone care to explain? We had a recent thread where several posters went through this in varying degrees of detail and intuition...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

This is an interesting fact filled thread by astute posters. I hope it continues. While the axioms of "location, location", and supply/demand, holds true for area sales slumps and booms, there does seem to be other factors influencing things that have not in the past. To include: 1 As previous post...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

Unfortunately the affordability graph only seemed to go back for a few months? Couldn't change the scale - maybe Chrome problem? Yes, I think it's only a short series. Don't think it's a Chrome problem. Probably just a limited data set. I am not aware of evidence, numerical or anecdotal, that the U...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [EU / Belgium] A suitable alternative to bonds?
Replies: 12
Views: 1294

Re: A suitable alternative to bonds?

Hello Zarci, The Bogleheads' principles are universally applicable. Every country does have particular challenges and solutions. As such it is good to mention {Europe] or {Belgium} in your title to attract the members that are focussing on these aspects. You can update the title by using the small ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

From what I have seen in the northern parts of San Diego county prices are plateauing, they are getting to a point where there aren't enough capable buyers I think. To me it's looks like ~12x the median income starts becoming the upper limit for North County San Diego cities. At least for SFHs. And...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

Real estate is local. ... I don’t recall it being so “local” in 2007-2008? :D But you know... perhaps this time it’s different! Directionaly most of the housing market was going down, but there was some wide differences in regional markets NAR data on difference From 4th quarter 2007 to 4th quarter...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [EU] Review my portfolio & investment plan
Replies: 10
Views: 612

Re: [EU] Review my portfolio & investment plan

Recently I finalized my investment plan and strategy. I'm hoping I'd be able to get some thoughts and critisism on my reasoning from more experienced investors here. I'll include most of my context information and reasoning behind the decisions made in the paragraphs below. I've been educating myse...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

...1 & 2 would lead one to expect higher housing prices... Population and GDP per capita have always grown, but the Case Shiller index was remarkably stable for 100 years until 2000. So what changed and why now (i.e. last ~20 years) to warrant a sharp ~50% rise in the index? Is it simply a matter o...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finances in NYC
Replies: 76
Views: 5904

Re: Finances in NYC

The only thing possibly holding me back is the rent. But there are cheaper options than Manhattan, obviously. I guess there isn't much difference between a 35 minute walk and 35 minutes of walking/subway with the difference of having to build some extra time for delays that you don't encounter with...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 401
Views: 76061

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I do not question the motives, integrity, or intelligence of those who argue that international equities are unnecessary. It is unfortunate that others choose to do so. Also, I don't recall ever seeing the "100% US" crowd leveling the same kind of personal attacks toward strong believers in interna...
by Valuethinker
Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10473

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Do you honestly think that people work for decades on behalf of their society or country? Come on. Aren’t you in the military? And you’re mocking people who work on the behalf of their country? On Veterans Day weekend? I don't think any of us can figure out whether wandering doc is for real or not....
by Valuethinker
Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10473

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

...Do you honestly think that people work for decades on behalf of their society or country? Come on... Yes. I do. I honestly think that. I really do. Some people. In fact the economic system requires it. All economic systems. In 18th c Britain very few were idle lords. And plenty of those got kill...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Group life insurance through work
Replies: 20
Views: 1531

Re: Group life insurance through work

if you are healthy, rates outside of your employer are almost always cheaper. (The employer insurance plan is guaranteed issue, and has to take chronically sick and healthy alike.) Plus, you will leave eventually, and then you will have no life insurance. And more importantly, if you are sick at th...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Finance/Stock Market Films
Replies: 34
Views: 1578

Re: Best Finance/Stock Market Films

Agreed, the Big Short is worth seeing. I've seen it quoted on bogleheads sometimes as a good illustration that you not only have to be right when timing the market, but you have to get the time right. The Wolf of Wall Street is quite entertaining (if you don't take offense at the profanity), and al...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term Life Insurance through Work
Replies: 4
Views: 365

Re: Term Life Insurance through Work

Benefits enrollment is on the way. Wife and I just had our first baby and we will likely drop to single income. I'm thinking about enrolling but haven't really done much research on life insurance and wanted to see if I could get some support. Here are the options for after-tax cost per pay check a...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Finance/Stock Market Films
Replies: 34
Views: 1578

Re: Best Finance/Stock Market Films

I enjoy Wall St. if only because it is a typical 80's movie, a nice time capsule of NYC and 1980's stereotypes of Yuppies at the time. The 1980s in Finance really were like that - I saw the very tail end of that -- or rather worked with the survivors. The bright red braces. The cigars. The booze & ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Finance/Stock Market Films
Replies: 34
Views: 1578

Re: Best Finance/Stock Market Films

What are some of your favourite films related to finance/the stock market? To get started, here are my top 2: 1. Margin Call 2. The Big Short those 2 + Boiler Room Wall Street Equity (apparently - I missed it in the cinema) Billion Dollar Bubble (w a young James Woods) - if you can find it. It's re...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 97
Views: 8487

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

I recently read another article noting how Swensen and Yale has invested in two bitcoin operations. That surprises me! Maybe...I mean, I’d be far more inclined to invest in a gold re-selling company than gold itself. Not that I would ever specifically choose to do so, of course. Or another version:...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock markets not at all time highs
Replies: 19
Views: 2437

Re: Stock markets not at all time highs

2015 wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:53 am
Twitter is "the noise" on steroids.
STOCK MARKET MAKING ALL TIME HIGHS. SAD.

;-) ;-)
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planning first international trip - London/Paris
Replies: 67
Views: 3324

Re: Planning first international trip - London/Paris

Mainly we tried to walk (I say tried because my mom has very bad arthritis and we just ended up taking a cab a lot). The cab rides were nice though and I enjoyed talking to the cabbies. Not to hijack the thread, but this brings up a point I’ve been wondering about. My wife and I will be in London f...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planning first international trip - London/Paris
Replies: 67
Views: 3324

Re: Planning first international trip - London/Paris

Mainly we tried to walk (I say tried because my mom has very bad arthritis and we just ended up taking a cab a lot). The cab rides were nice though and I enjoyed talking to the cabbies. Not to hijack the thread, but this brings up a point I’ve been wondering about. My wife and I will be in London f...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job vs term life insurance
Replies: 35
Views: 3024

Re: Job vs term life insurance

From that brochure You can generally convert your Group Life insurance benefits to an Individual Whole Life insurance policy No thanks Go get a term policy outside your employer, while you are young, before you get sick and need to leave your employer. I have had two realities with all their life i...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA R1 With Painfully High Expenses - stuck?
Replies: 34
Views: 1904

Re: TIAA R1 With Painfully High Expenses - stuck?

If I were you I would look for an broad-based equity index fund with a low ER. If the best you can do is the CREF Equity fund with an ER of 0.51% just stick with that even though it's not an index fund. My wife has used only the CREF Equity fund along with TIAA Traditional in her 403b and IRA for d...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

I confess that I don't know how it's calculated, but I keep coming back to the Case Shiller Home Price Index: http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/ This has been disturbing to me for a while. The latest rise looks nearly as sharp as the 2000-2006 rise, and it only ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 78
Views: 8873

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

What I think is generally happening is that US mortgage rates are rising, and that is taking the steam out of some overheated markets. It's not a crash, nor likely to be a crash -- barring some unforeseen event (another war, economic crisis etc.). But markets will struggle for a while in the face o...