Search found 32932 matches

by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home
Replies: 15
Views: 3438

Re: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home

...You forgot that your car takes over from you when you are braking or if manoeuvring violently... Indeed. And it is an interesting question how my car prioritizes protecting my life versus protecting the lives of others. "The trolley problem". It offends me as a philosophical problem, because it ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home
Replies: 15
Views: 3438

Re: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home

We are further down the road toward bad 1950s SF about robot domination than I expected to see in my lifetime. It's not obvious because so many of the things that are happening are "merely" strong nudges, not total compulsion, and because the weird artificial not-quite-intelligence of Google, Siri,...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller warming up to Bitcoin
Replies: 7
Views: 1374

Re: Robert Shiller warming up to Bitcoin

I'm not a big advocate of crypto currencies but I can't stand when people just throw out the tulip argument. It's just such a lazy cop out. Mississippi Land Company and the invention of paper money? (John Law, Paris 1720) South Sea Bubble (London 1711)? Mining stocks? (more times than I can count, ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pakistan Real Estate?
Replies: 25
Views: 2347

Re: Dubai and Pakistan Real Estate?

In the cities it's not uncommon to find a person owning 2-3 houses (each worth $250-350K), 3-4 lots (some worth over $100k). Think about what you just wrote here. "It's not uncommon" means "it is common". AlohaJoe I totally agree with you but this may simply be the Pakistani/ Indian way of communic...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pakistan Real Estate?
Replies: 25
Views: 2347

Re: Dubai and Pakistan Real Estate?

The risks were worth if you had done it 10 to 15 years ago...Now I doubt it.. Anyway what do we have going in Pakistan that is contributing to growth??? IT...??? . I don't know.. I don't see anything significant that is making the country grow.. Unlike India. Which has all sorts of stuff going on.....
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Trip to Russia
Replies: 81
Views: 4107

Re: A Trip to Russia

I've been to Russia twice and I agree with virtually all of the comments you've already received regarding places to see. We were there on two separate cruises: 1. Moscow to St. Petersburg river cruise with Uniworld. About 2 weeks with 3 days each in Moscow and St. Petersburg. 2. Two day visit to S...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Trip to Russia
Replies: 81
Views: 4107

Re: A Trip to Russia

I have left the USSR over thirty years ago and have not been back. Obviously, a lot has changed since then, but some authentic experiences probably remain: 1. Take an over-night train from Moscow to St Petersburg, or the other way around, and try a real Russian tea served by the train conductor. 2....
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?
Replies: 36
Views: 2132

Re: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?

I have I guess what you may call, a phobia, of selling my investments. When I buy something, I plan on holding it essentially until I die and passing it on. This may be good for growing a portfolio, but I also don't believe it will allow me to improve my quality of life with extra funds, if I ever ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?
Replies: 25
Views: 1809

Re: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?

I cashed out all my initial capital yesterday as Bitcoin was falling precipitously. Now just have house money in a small amount of crypto. Bitcoin is now back to almost $17K!! I guess I shouldn't have panic sold. The reason I sold was because I realized that I bought Bitcoin not because I believed ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?
Replies: 36
Views: 2132

Re: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?

Captain Kangaroo, Hello & nice meeting you. If I were you (knowing what I know) this is exactly what I would do. I would invest the whole $2 Million into the Vanguard Balanced Fund 60% stocks/40% bonds & not worry about it for the rest of my life... then pass it on to the next generation. Reasons: ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?
Replies: 25
Views: 1809

Re: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?

One other general point is because the runup in Bitcoins has been so relatively rapid recently, a crash soon would mean in many cases allot of any losses would be effectively "paper" ones than people actually all losing that level of money in term of their actual invested money they put into bitcoi...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin IRA
Replies: 28
Views: 2318

Re: Bitcoin IRA

WanderingDoc wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:45 am
Makes me wonder.. If Bitcoin goes to $20K by end of 2017, 40K by 2018, and $100K by 2020, will people on this board keep saying "too late to the game" "end of the Bitcoin bubble" then? :D
In a word.. yes.
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?
Replies: 25
Views: 1809

Re: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?

Nothing. The total value of all bitcoin is a rounding error compared to the trillions in assets moving around the world daily. I’m not so sure. With exchanges opening up leverage and derivatives will more and more become part of the game. These will amplify the effects of price movement of the unde...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin IRA
Replies: 28
Views: 2318

Re: Bitcoin IRA

Dear Bogleheads, Happy Holidays! I wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year! Lately, I have received a lot of information in my email box in regards to Bitcoin Stock/Bitcoin IRA investment. The stock price for Bitcoin has gone crazy over $1,000/share. I have maximiz...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2233

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Someone I know (who seems to have been pretty succesful in money management) pointed out the following, when asked about Bitcoin: 'There are certain times in the year: Tulips – first week of September 1637 Wall Street 1929 - September 3rd Gold 1980 - January 21st UK Tech mania 1999 - December 31st ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?
Replies: 25
Views: 1809

Re: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?

My limited knowledge of bitcoin see it simply as a hyped-up and speculative currency with no ties to anything of real value. What (if anything) would a crash do to the general stock market? If Bitcoin is currently capitalized at around $300bn the loss of that money is trivial (less than half the ma...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?
Replies: 25
Views: 1809

Re: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?

My limited knowledge of bitcoin see it simply as a hyped-up and speculative currency with no ties to anything of real value. What (if anything) would a crash do to the general stock market? If Bitcoin is currently capitalized at around $300bn the loss of that money is trivial (less than half the ma...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Research On Dividend Studies
Replies: 11
Views: 1131

Re: Current Research On Dividend Studies

Sorting based on dividends produced a 9.57% return premium from 1st quintile to 5th quintile, with 5.27% less volatility as measured by standard deviation!?! Forgive me if I don't believe that. Unfortunately, I can't quite spot what is wrong, but there is simply no way that is the whole story. http...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin futures - trading them is good?
Replies: 8
Views: 834

Re: Bitcoin futures - trading them is good?

To Valuethinker. I thought the futures would be going out only to January and February. That is more of an option timeframe than a future. I have never traded futures, just optiions. I though they were essentially the same thing, excepting farther out. From what you say, there is no way to close ou...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions
Replies: 80
Views: 6991

Re: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions

This nation has overcome many a challenge since its founding in 1787. This will be no different, we will find a way. +1 Although the US has always been a young country. The demographic challenge of aging is hardly unique to the USA. In fact it faces all the developed nations at once, and the larges...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pakistan Real Estate?
Replies: 25
Views: 2347

Re: Dubai and Pakistan Real Estate?

Yes, so that's why I made this post. To find out if there is another aspect to this. As to why Pakistan and not other developing countries. Because it's doable for me. I have citizenship, good friends here, I also know the language. My total stock index ROI isn't even close to what people are getti...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6508

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I find this quote entertaining: "Tulips are not durable, not scarce, not programmable, not fungible, not verifiable, not divisible, and hard to transfer. But tell me more about your analogy..." Cryptocurrency and blockchain technology aren't going anywhere. Bitcoin may eventually fall, but others w...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6508

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I find this quote entertaining: "Tulips are not durable, not scarce, not programmable, not fungible, not verifiable, not divisible, and hard to transfer. But tell me more about your analogy..." Cryptocurrency and blockchain technology aren't going anywhere. Bitcoin may eventually fall, but others w...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3123
Views: 918121

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Paddington 2 Paddington, the Bear from Peru, so-called because he was found at Paddington Station (and based on a stuffed bear Michael Bond saw in the station). Lives with the Brown Family off Portobello Road in West London (think the movie Notting Hill with Julia Roberts and Hugh Grant). In an ant...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6508

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

This was just too good (and relevant) not to post. What a world we live in that the Onion would provide such a good explanation! The Onion has almost ceased to be funny the last 2-3 years because reality has paced it. In fact, sometimes I have to check whether I am reading the Onion, or the actual ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 50
Views: 3515

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Less than the one trillion dollar coin the Treasury considered minting to nullify the debt ceiling. http://www.businessinsider.com/trillion-dollar-coin-on-debt-ceiling-treasury-2015-10 And people say Bitcoin is money out of thin air again. But that was because of a stupid legislative thing, so some...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 50
Views: 3515

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

$20,345 I hope this bubble bursts soon as this whole thing is killing me inside. Several months ago a friend said we should invest in crypto. I said it was stupid and listed multiple times all the reasons why it is stupid. And yet here we are. Fear Of Missing Out. Might be wise to go back and read ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my portfolio (EU-based)
Replies: 2
Views: 165

Re: Critique my portfolio (EU-based)

Hi, I read the book recently and have questions about my portfolio. First off: Emergency funds: Yes, I have three to four months work. I also have a pension scheme and my employment is secure. Debt: A business loan of USD1000. 7.5%. This will be paid off in January. Tax Filing Status: Married Tax R...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin futures - trading them is good?
Replies: 8
Views: 834

Re: Bitcoin futures - trading them is good?

Another Bitcoin thread. Just for fun. Sunday night Bitcoin futures are happening. Thinking about this I came up with the following speculation. Using AMZN as basis I came up with some possible figures to consider. AMZN is a much traded stick of high valuation. The options chains are traded heavily....
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6508

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

Somewhere back I read that evidence seems to support the semi-strong form as the most reflective of current stock markets. It's definitely not strong form. at any rate, is bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history? I don't think that's even close to remotely true, either in real or nom...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond options - What would you do?
Replies: 6
Views: 651

Re: Bond options - What would you do?

Bond funds available in 401(k): VAIPX Vanguard Inflation-Protected 0.1% PTRAX Pimco Total Return 0.76% MWTRX Metropolitan West Total Return Bond 0.67% FAGIX Fidelity Capital & Income 0.73% (not super interested in high-yield here) Thoughts specifically on #2, holding VAPIX in the 401(k)? Any other ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Acts of war term insurance?
Replies: 17
Views: 1569

Re: Acts of war term insurance?

As for calling/emailing these companies in search of combat zone/war clauses, you're sending the OP down a rabbit hole for something that will very likely yield only negative results. Combat zone/war clauses are standard boiler plate exemptions on typical life insurance contracts (been there, done ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6508

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

It's definitely a bubble, but likely not the largest in history. I do think it's bigger than either RE in 2007/2008 or oil in 2013 though. Here's my reasoning: Bubbles are all about overvaluing a thing. The closest thing Bitcoin has to an intrinsic value is the cost of production. Right now, one of...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6508

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

Is Salvator Mundi at $450M in a bubble? One painting can't be a bubble. What is the market in Old Masters paintings doing in general? Well the Hedge Funds were driving up the price of modern art-- you weren't a proper HF if you didn't have some Damien Hirst or something, let alone an Andy Warhol. I...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6508

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

rkhusky wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:13 am
Is Salvator Mundi at $450M in a bubble?
Quite possibly, given the identity of the purchaser.

Remember it was the purchase of the Van Gogh "Sunflowers" for a record $37 million dollars in 1987 to a Japanese purchaser that nearly called the peak of their bubble.
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6508

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I agree with most of this, but the strong version of the efficient market hypothesis cannot be correct. For if it were, it would be impossible ever to identify a bubble while it was in progress. This is clearly incorrect because quite a few people identified the NASDAQ dotcom bubble while it was in...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 4118

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

Anyone have any idea what percentage of bitcoin holdings are in the US? Is there any way to even know? This is a world forum, not just a US forum obviously. But if the bulk of bitcoin owners are Chinese or Indian tech millionaires, or say Colombian drug lords I'm not sure I really care what happens...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6508

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

Somewhere back I read that evidence seems to support the semi-strong form as the most reflective of current stock markets. It's definitely not strong form. Most people would agree that with inside information, you can outperform. However liquidity works against you. If the other side of the trade t...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6508

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

In another one of the many bitcoin threads on bogleheads right now, someone said his teenage kid was asking if he could buy bitcoin. I suspect that the bubble will be popping soon. If teenagers are buying, then anyone who wants bitcoin already has it. I would say when grandmas or grandpas start buy...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Growing Number of Electric Vehicles
Replies: 112
Views: 8241

Re: Growing Number of Electric Vehicles

Let's throw some cold water on the title of this thread. The # of electric vehicles is still small potatoes, miniscule amount compared to number of gasoline/diesel vehicles sold in the US. Here is a picture of the 2017 H1 sales. All EV's combined for the 6 months was a little more than a month of t...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 4118

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

I would not be so sure if there won't be any meaningful impact at least in some countries. And with the world economy being quite connected there could be some (probably not huge) spill over effects. e.g. read here about South Korea: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-06/bitcoin-frenzy...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 4118

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

The situation as to whether a bitcoin crash can cause ripple contraction effects on other parts of the economy depend somewhat on whether a lot of the bitcoin buying has been financed and whether the "bitcoin millionaires" can pay their bitcoin acquisition debt if their bitcoin value goes south. I ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 4118

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

I can't imagine it having widespread impact. It has very little reach into the economy except as a speculative trading platform. The runups are getting crazier and crazier. I'm sure if/when it crashes we are going to hear a lot of stories about people who pumped all their money into this and lost i...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 4118

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

When Bitcoin finally blows-up, what investments should I be in to avoid the fall out? It's leverage that turns the fall in price in a financial asset into an economic effect. So the dot com bubble: - media & telecoms companies, primarily, had borrowed huge amounts of debt - -some of that was imperi...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it look like a bubble to you?
Replies: 42
Views: 3550

Re: Does it look like a bubble to you?

Thesaints wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:14 am
No, it can not. It is simple algebra and they didn’t see a Zimbabwe effect as well, did they ?
Zimbabwe ended its hyperinflation several years ago - they pegged to the dollar.
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 230
Views: 17393

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

See my various previous posts above. Inflation is not a problem if you are holding small amounts for a short time to facilitate spending, so the cryptodollar should be a perfectly fine currency for on-line purchases, in a world where the dollar as we know it still exists. However the possibility of...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto-Currency
Replies: 17
Views: 1081

Re: Crypto-Currency

CaliJim wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:02 pm
No. Speculation in such things is not allowed per the BH membership agreement.
Shhh... the first rule of Bogleheads is "Do not talk about ... "
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CBOE to launch bitcoin futures trading on Dec 10, 2017
Replies: 12
Views: 809

Re: CBOE to launch bitcoin futures trading on Dec 10, 2017

Creating a synthetic betting instrument to speculate on a synthetic currency whose main use is for speculation. The last "shark jumping" stage in this saga. Creating a synthetic betting instrument to speculate is actually a good thing. This asset is one way street up is because no one can short thi...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10602

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

The U.S. may be just a small part of the crypo-craze. And last week, trading between the Korean currency, the won, and Ether, the most valuable Bitcoin competitor, was nearly as active as trading between the dollar and Ether — despite the fact that Korea’s population is one-sixth that of the United...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are plasma TV's gone forever?
Replies: 36
Views: 4502

Re: Are plasma TV's gone forever?

As an added benefit they will heat your home! These should be a no brainer in cold climates... If you have a heat pump it is 2-3x more efficient that using your tv as an electric bar (1 kwhr electricity = 2-3 kwhr of heat at COP of 2.0-3.0). Caveat: if external temperatures are down below 20 degree...