Search found 35492 matches

by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Replies: 38
Views: 6834

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

No doubt that hidden debt is a risk for China and we don't know accurately the full extent of the problem. Having said that it's important to recall that the greatest global debt default crisis since the Great Depression originated right under our blind eyes in the USA with the massive financial co...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bitcoin after death...some thoughts to consider
Replies: 9
Views: 1312

Re: Bitcoin after death...some thoughts to consider

If the encryption that bitcoin is based on is brute force cracked by this mythical soon-to-come computing power, the cracking of bitcoin will be dwarfed in significance to the cracking of encryption protecting US Dollar and Euro based financial systems. It's not mythical, it's called Quantum Comput...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why dismiss sectors?
Replies: 16
Views: 517

Re: Why dismiss sectors?

I have been reading this forum for quite some time, paying attention to people's views on asset allocation, investment strategies etc. It seems to me that most Bogleheads dislike sectors. While I see why you should not put a big chunk of your money into a specific sector, I do not quite see why a p...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cross-country trip via Amtrak
Replies: 38
Views: 2616

Re: Cross-country trip via Amtrak

If you search on youtube, there are several *long* amtrak travel videos that really give you the feeling of what it is like. And there are lots of tips and pros and cons of the experience. Check them out. There is one from Chicago to the West Coast that is great (in winter with heat failure issues ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cross-country trip via Amtrak
Replies: 38
Views: 2616

Re: Cross-country trip via Amtrak

For the past year or so I've been thinking of taking a trip to the East Coast (Boston, New York, etc.) to visit friends and family. I'm pretty sure now that I'm gonna do it next spring. I've flown across the country many times (I live in Oregon). Now I'm toying with the idea of making the trip via ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sin as investment strategy
Replies: 26
Views: 3231

Re: Sin as investment strategy

Larry, Sin stock investing as a factor has been on my mind off and on the last couple years, and I came across this post of yours from a few years ago (thank you for posting the link). In the years since, have you come across any reasonably analogous alternative to VICEX, hopefully one with an ER l...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years
Replies: 34
Views: 1994

Re: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years

First, Has anyone did a rolling approach looking further back at 5, 10, 20 year intervals. Think you need to do that before you can say this thought has some wheels otherwise it may just be a sampling error. Agreed. Although if you just look at the makeup of the ten largest stocks in the S&P 500, y...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRKB overlap with VTSAX overweight AAPL?
Replies: 3
Views: 202

Re: BRKB overlap with VTSAX overweight AAPL?

I was hoping to find an answer to a question that has been bugging me lately. I noticed that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is the 5th largest holding in VTSAX. I also know that this company holds a lot of Apple and other major US companies which are also in the top holdings. My question is, because compa...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years
Replies: 34
Views: 1994

Re: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years

I became aware earlier of research which indicated that the largest companies in a country's stock market, as defined by market capitalization, tend to underperform the rest of the market going forward. But it wasn't until today that I came across such a dramatic example of this in action from Rese...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 74
Views: 10045

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

Would you please explain why illiquidity would cause a performance problem with TIPS in late 2008? Also, I read mean times on the forum that during a financial crisis many investors flee to safety of treasuries and that is why something like total Bond fund did ok during the 2008 crisis. Does a sur...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?
Replies: 19
Views: 1663

Re: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?

David Swenson, the Chief Investment Officer at Yale, argues against Corp Bonds in his book Unconventional Success - A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment. He cites credit risk, lack of liquidity, and callability. He views callable bonds as " heads I win, tails you lose" from the issuer's pe...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 34
Views: 3145

Re: Corporate politics/culture

Well, I'm not surprised to see that I'm not the only semiconductor veteran here! More of an interested onlooker. But I knew a lot of semiconductor engineers at one time. Yep, "we're going to concentrate now on our core business". Layoffs start, new innovative teams are disbanded, etc. Begin spiral....
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?
Replies: 19
Views: 1663

Re: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?

I'm new to bonds and would like to hear your opinion. I currently have stocks but want to diversify. Thanks! 10 year US Treasury bonds are paying 3%. That's the best yield in years. I would not buy corporate bonds right now: - corporate bonds have equity risk. That's well established. And in downtu...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EUR+USD complicated portfolio for better yield
Replies: 8
Views: 494

Re: EUR+USD complicated portfolio for better yield

Hi, I have both EUR and USD (around 50/50) which I want to invest in a hopefully-simple portfolio covering the whole world, 80% equity and 20% bonds. The situation is that I'm from Europe, and investing in Ireland-domiciled funds is preferable, and - my investable sum is around 50% EUR and 50% USD....
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Masters Degree Advice
Replies: 21
Views: 1740

Re: Masters Degree Advice

I am a recent mechanical engineering graduate (<1 year) and am looking for some career advice. I just started working and am making about 70k a year prior to overtime. I do not receive time and a half unfortunately, I get straight time. So an opportunity may arise in the near future to have my Mast...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 173
Views: 8664

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

As a US citizen born abroad who spent well over a half of his life in Europe, I find the general attitude in this thread somewhat disturbing. Perhaps I shouldn't be surprised given that 64% of the US population doesn't own a passport... Read about what's happening in the US Foreign Service. This is...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maserati Experiences
Replies: 37
Views: 3653

Re: Maserati Experiences

munemaker wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:39 am
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:14 pm

What are Bogleheads collective experiences with Maserati cars?
Bogleheads would buy a Toyota Camry and invest the rest.
And buy a $100k watch with the proceeds ;-).
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cross-country trip via Amtrak
Replies: 38
Views: 2616

Re: Cross-country trip via Amtrak

Banff is supposed to be spectacular. Can't get there on VIA Rail, the Canadian equivalent of Amtrak. You have to use the Rocky Mountaineer, a luxury land-cruise operation run by a private company. I've ridden VIA Rail's Canadian between Edmonton and Vancouver via Jasper (sitting up overnight in coa...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maserati Experiences
Replies: 37
Views: 3653

Re: Maserati Experiences

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:47 am
Completely wrong forum to ask advice on purchasing Maserati! On the other hand, if you are asking about buying a $100K watch, feel free!
;-).

That is only because Toyota and Honda are not in the watch business? ;-)
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 173
Views: 8664

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

In an Efficient Market, all the (factual & anecdotal) evidence presented here is known. It is the marginal buyer and seller who set the price in the market. At the margin, informed buyers and sellers know these factors US vs. international etc. What do we, here, know that the informed buyer and sell...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 69
Views: 8291

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

So after this 10 year bull (and 10 years aging for all of us too), what sorts of steps, if any, have some people taken to prepare for a potential bear? 10 years is a substantial portion of both one’s accumulation phase and of one’s investing lifetime. Dave This is the real question, what can / shou...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 69
Views: 8291

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

If you are thinking about selling, you might ask yourself what you know that Buffett doesn’t. Why is Buffett sitting on ~$110B in cash? In insurance you get premiums from policy holders, and then you don't pay out for years. But you have to set aside reserves for each $1 of policy that is written, ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cross-country trip via Amtrak
Replies: 38
Views: 2616

Re: Cross-country trip via Amtrak

Hi Bogleheads - For the past year or so I've been thinking of taking a trip to the East Coast (Boston, New York, etc.) to visit friends and family. I'm pretty sure now that I'm gonna do it next spring. I've flown across the country many times (I live in Oregon). Now I'm toying with the idea of maki...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 34
Views: 3145

Re: Corporate politics/culture

The 80-20 is standard McKinsey analysis and I wouldn't be surprised if they paid $1m+ to McKinsey for a consulting assignment with that particular insight. You know whats funny... Right around the time that I hit my final straw and gave my notice, my old company brought in McKinsey. I even got inte...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 121
Views: 14104

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

Sears Holdings is up 50% today at 45.4 cents, why? It's bankrupt soon and the shares will be delisted and worthless so why does anyone buy? Sometimes debt holders also buy the equity. If the business avoids actual Chapter 7, the equity can still have negotiating rights, even though its value is zero.
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 34
Views: 3145

Re: Corporate politics/culture

I worked for one particular MegaTechCorp where the executive VP of sales rotated in/out on about an 18 month basis. Every one of them seemed to feel that they needed to make a major change to show how great they were. I'm attached to sales so saw the result of their ego driven stupidity. One VP say...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3541

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

As an accountant, I would define cash and cash equivalents as short-term, highly liquid investments with a maturity of three months or less at the time of purchase. The items included as cash and cash equivalents must also be unrestricted, i.e. you cannot pledge such money as collateral for loans. ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX [Vanguard Target Date Funds]
Replies: 51
Views: 4118

Re: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX

I hardly ever check my accounts,but I signed in tonight,to transfer some money out of my money marked account.I almost fainted when I saw the 18.47 drop! I live in a one story house,so I couldn't even jump off my roof. :oops: Why can't you jump off the roof of a one story house? :confused It was a ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I sell Microsoft Bond
Replies: 19
Views: 1339

Re: Should I sell Microsoft Bond

columbia wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:50 pm
RIP Paul Allen:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/microso ... ge-65.html
Sad.

He seemed to do quite a bit of good with his money.
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I sell Microsoft Bond
Replies: 19
Views: 1339

Re: Should I sell Microsoft Bond

I have a Microsoft Bond,50,000 dollars yielding 3.15 that matures in 7 years.I t looks like if I sell it I will get back 49,000.If I sell I will buy a 2 year cd yielding almost the same.I have owned the bond for 3 years.Thoughts? When will you need the money? How big a percentage is it of your tota...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4603

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

Is it a joke if it has come to pass? I have read a few academic articles showing that the momentum anomaly is no more. Let me extend a bit. First, I do find the statistics fascinating. Trying to prove these things one way or the other is hard. If we measure risk as the standard deviation we can get...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lazy Portfolio with Ireland Domiciled Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 428

Re: Lazy Portfolio with Ireland Domiciled Funds

Hi, I'm looking to mimic a simple lazy protfolio with 3 etfs. US Stocks, International Stocks and Worldwide Bond funds. Has anyone done this using ireland domiciled funds? I was looking at iShares but they don't have US & International total market stock funds. SWDA : iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Europe Domiciled REIT ETFs?
Replies: 8
Views: 548

Re: Europe Domiciled REIT ETFs?

In 'A Random Walk on Wall Street' REIT investments are described as good sources of diversification and protection against inflation. I've come to the conclusion that European investors barely have access to ETFs in this sector. Among iShares, Vanguard and Wisdomtree's European website's I did not ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Europe Domiciled REIT ETFs?
Replies: 8
Views: 548

Re: Europe Domiciled REIT ETFs?

Was just reading about bubbles, most of them I heard before. (They still sell tulips here in the Netherlands.) Regarding REITs I took a look at the Case-Shiller Inflation adjusted housing prices in the USA: they seem to be at the levels of 2006: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPCS20RSA However:...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 121
Views: 14104

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

It was hard for a retailer catering to mass tastes like Sears to keep up. Agree. I've already commented, with links, elsewhere in this thread, on the fact that "changes in retailing" do not provide the whole story of what happened to Sears, and what was done to Sears, under its current management. ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 121
Views: 14104

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

Just to add another comment...I remember the phase when Sears tried having a Stock Brokerage desk in the store. I think it was Dean Whiter (spelling?) or something close. I had left my first employer after college and had a few ESOP shares of stock. Was able to sell those shares using this service....
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Europe Domiciled REIT ETFs?
Replies: 8
Views: 548

Re: Europe Domiciled REIT ETFs?

In 'A Random Walk on Wall Street' REIT investments are described as good sources of diversification and protection against inflation. I've come to the conclusion that European investors barely have access to ETFs in this sector. Among iShares, Vanguard and Wisdomtree's European website's I did not ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3759
Views: 1067882

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Black Panther , on Netflix. In comparison to previous Marvel movies, I thought the plot was creative and was presented from a very different perspective. Stan Lee made his expected cameo appearance. I liked it. Previously - Wonder Woman , on DVD. The first half was boring and predictable. It got mo...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3759
Views: 1067882

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Columbus The real star of this film is Columbus, Indiana, which is a mecca of the Modernist period in architecture - particularly the works of Finnish architect Ero Saarinen (sp?). https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5990474/ However the 2 main actors, one Korean-American (John Cho - Mr Sulu in the new St...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 121
Views: 14104

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

Actually, you could turn your entire argument around and say that it was consumer greed that caused the decline of Sears/Kmart/et al. If Americans can get cheaper stuff from Korea/Japan/China/Vietnam, they generally will. But where would they buy it? It's not as if consumers can deal directly with ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bond Funds
Replies: 46
Views: 2599

Re: Emerging Market Bond Funds

Foreign currency denominated they are more volatile. But that includes more long term upside potential if you believe in convergence to Purchasing Power Parity. Research Affiliates' projection of own currency EMB as among top expected return/top future Sharpe Ratio pick is based on that. Do you hav...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3541

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

As an accountant, I would define cash and cash equivalents as short-term, highly liquid investments with a maturity of three months or less at the time of purchase. The items included as cash and cash equivalents must also be unrestricted, i.e. you cannot pledge such money as collateral for loans. ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:01 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: michael survivors
Replies: 16
Views: 1929

Re: michael survivors

You don't need online backup if you have thumb drives in appropriate places besides your home. I can't imagine why people leave important files online, just waiting to be hacked. I accept the point about hacking in the Cloud. Conversely you can lose all access to the places you put your thumb drive...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?
Replies: 12
Views: 1066

Re: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?

Those who ask “what have we learned from the past?” have similar interests as those who believe future impactful occurrences have precedents in the past that are worth analyzing. Others argue that some of the major impactful events in the past were unprecedented and could not be considered probable...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?
Replies: 12
Views: 1066

Re: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?

The big events are in bold 1929 Great Depression 1973 Energy Crisis 1980 Farm Crisis maybe? 1979-80 was the Second Oil Crisis, associated with the Iranian Revolution. Oil went from $12 /bl to $40/ bl, as large a rise as in the first Oil Crisis of 1973 ($3 to $12)*. It also saw the beginning of the ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?
Replies: 12
Views: 1066

Re: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?

What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years? WW1, WW2, Vietnam War, the First Gulf War, Arab-Israeli War, Smoot-Hawley tariffs, President Teddy Roosevelt personally threatening companies he didn't like, 9/11, the severe drought of the 1930s, the 1938 New England Hurricane, the 1944 Gre...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1M Portfolio - Asset allocation for mid 40's [Australia]
Replies: 13
Views: 1196

Re: 1M Portfolio - Asset allocation for mid 40's [Australia]

If you have big exposure to Australian residential real estate I would not be adding Australian commercial property. The recession that hits one would hit the other. The Australian stock index is heavily financial services and natural resources. The same factors that would hit Australian real estat...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hong Kong Money Market Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 805

Re: Hong Kong Money Market Fund

I'm in a similar situation as you (western expat living in HK, although I'm not from the UK and I'm more or less planning on staying here) and I'm just starting to deal with this issue myself (in my 20s and saving up for a house in this crazy place). I'm currently putting my cash savings into FLOA ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1M Portfolio - Asset allocation for mid 40's [Australia]
Replies: 13
Views: 1196

Re: 1M Portfolio - Asset allocation for mid 40's [Australia]

Hi Bogleheads, I'm looking for some input on the following fund portfolio and how to allocate 1M. > Australian, mid 40's > 1M already invested directly in Australian residential property > Like the idea of a simple 3 fund portfolio with rebalancing, open to only one fund or 4-6 funds also > 1M to i...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1163
Views: 96009

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I don’t have the numbers in front me, but I’m pretty sure 5 years ago those P/E ratios were very similar. Looking at the below chart, over the last 5 years S&P 500 prices have increased by more than (ten year average of) earnings. It is more expensive now than it was five years ago. http://www.mult...