Search found 36763 matches

by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 2854

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

If you believe in sectoral balances, public sector deficits equal private sector surpluses. We saw evidence of this as the savings rate was actually zero to negative when the US ran budget surpluses during the Clinton Administration. When the Obama Administration ran huge deficits early on to comba...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 2854

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

If you believe in sectoral balances, public sector deficits equal private sector surpluses. We saw evidence of this as the savings rate was actually zero to negative when the US ran budget surpluses during the Clinton Administration. When the Obama Administration ran huge deficits early on to comba...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wife filled our gas engine car with diesel fuel
Replies: 43
Views: 3103

Re: Wife filled our gas engine car with diesel fuel

I'm curious how one actually accomplishes this. Diesel pump nozzles have a greater diameter than petrol ones, for exactly this reason. They're expressly designed to NOT fit into the filler tube. Conversely, my car, which is a diesel, has "latches" on either side of the tube, both of which must be d...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wife filled our gas engine car with diesel fuel
Replies: 43
Views: 3103

Re: Wife filled our gas engine car with diesel fuel

My wife is in another state trying to take care of her only sister who has cancer. She called me yesterday. She had filled our car up with diesel, and after driving about three blocks the car quit running and she was stranded on the side of the road. I called a wrecker and they took the car to the ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 2854

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

This 5 min video on modern monetary theory will help explain why this may be happening. https://youtu.be/TDL4c8fMODk It's very interesting and entertaining. Yeah... i don't know. I lived through hyperinflation and saw the effects, I am hard to convince. You must have been abroad when you lived thro...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wife filled our gas engine car with diesel fuel
Replies: 43
Views: 3103

Re: Wife filled our gas engine car with diesel fuel

Here's a pretty good explanation: https://www.cartalk.com/blogs/dear-car-talk/what-really-happens-when-you-put-diesel-gas-car That is a very good summary article !! I have seen this with a boat not a car but the engines are similar. Draining all fuel, cleaning all ,lines, R & R injectors and purge ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 2854

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

If a person or a business continues to spend more than their income they are in a higher risk pool. And their subsequent borrowing usually will be at a higher interest rate. Why doesn’t that happen with US deficit? Is it due to the full faith and credit of the US government? But wouldn’t we run out...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Currency volatility and time frame from a Vanguard paper
Replies: 1
Views: 108

Re: Currency volatility and time frame from a Vanguard paper

My question is regarding page 7 of this Vanguard document . It is showing that for Australia and Canada, currency hedging actually increased volatilities of equities ( in the time period given ). I have seen this quoted a couple of times as one of the reasons for avoiding hedging in Canada and Aust...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:53 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Advice for Large sum waiting to be DCA'd into equities [Canada]
Replies: 3
Views: 153

Re: Advice for Large sum waiting to be DCA'd into equities [Canada]

Hi all, This is my first post, and after coming the forums I thought I may ask a question about my specific situation. I just sold my business and have about 135k in cash, and 25k in RRSP's to invest(after my emergency fund). I know it's not a huge sum but I'm new to investing and would like to sta...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:15 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?
Replies: 10
Views: 721

Re: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?

Also regarding the Fixed income part, I think I prefer AGGH. I'm only concerned about the non government bonds that are in the index even if those are only around 30%. But what if the index decides to overweight non government bonds even more? On the other hand, for the coming years, because of the...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 103
Views: 11093

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

Why not invest internationally or globally, and the problem is solved? (If the problem is whether or not to stay invested at current U.S. valuations, or how to reduce exposure to extreme valuations and the associated potentially higher risk while keeping your assets invested at all times.) Most mar...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?
Replies: 10
Views: 721

Re: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?

I did not read you properly and got confused. There are several threads going about using 3x leveraged ETFs plus US Treasury bonds to duplicate stock market performance. There are some real problems w that strategy. What I had not properly understood is that this is a way to take delivery. Assuming ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 17, 2019 6:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time to pull the plug?
Replies: 15
Views: 2840

Re: Time to pull the plug?

I'd just leave it where it is, stop contributing anything more to it if you still are, and keep on keeping on. After all, it's not like it's a large part of your portfolio. That’s the perfect solution! Thanks! Behavioural psychology would say that you are: Anchoring on past values. They are irrelev...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 4155
Views: 1111544

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

StandingRock wrote:
Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:07 am
"Westworld". I've seen it several times. Still creepy as heck when Yul Brynner grins and says "Draw." I don't know if that kind of on screen persona will ever be duplicated.
Michael Crichton could really write.

The Andromeda Strain is pretty good too.
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 4155
Views: 1111544

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Solo: A Star Wars Story , on Netflix. It's the best Star Wars movie I've seen in quite some time. I liked it. I too enjoyed it. I understand the Star Wars fatigue which caused it to 'bomb' at the box office but the movie was very good. If you enjoy Sci-Fi, give Annihilation a shot. If you enjoy rea...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 4155
Views: 1111544

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

High Sierra (1941) Ida Lupino, Humphrey Bogart, screenplay by John Huston & W.R. Burnett. Synopsis by IMDb: “After being released from prison, notorious thief Roy Earle is hired by his old boss to help a group of inexperienced criminals plan and carry out the robbery of a California resort.” A fine...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:42 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Portfolio of EUR Index ETFs [Germany]
Replies: 5
Views: 360

Re: Portfolio of EUR Index ETFs [Germany]

I should add that tax can totally change ones asset allocations.

That entirely depends on country of residence and additionally whether one is an American citizen or not.
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Portfolio of EUR Index ETFs [Germany]
Replies: 5
Views: 360

Re: Portfolio of EUR Index ETFs [Germany]

There's no reason to sector or country specialize. In the long run that has not been rewarded -- the additional volatility was greater than the returns gain (roughly speaking). Equities are risky enough in and of themselves. Let the market decide what is going up and down - whether it is oil compan...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?
Replies: 10
Views: 721

Re: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?

You are paying the volatility premium, and you are not getting the dividends, and you are paying the spread on the options. It looks like a great way to burn money. How about just buying the world ETF, of which both Vanguard and ishares offer Dublin registered funds? Why shouldn't I get the dividen...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:17 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?
Replies: 10
Views: 721

Re: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?

Hello all, Thanks for this amazing forum with the endless information one can found. I'm reading it really a lot. Now I would like to ask advice over the following. I've started investing 3 years ago and basically invest in the following: Stocks VTI (50-60%) VXUS (40-50%) VWRL (temporary storage, t...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: European alternative to VXUS
Replies: 6
Views: 498

Re: European alternative to VXUS

Hi all Regulations have change and I can't keep buying VTI+VXUS as I have been doing so far. I have found some reasonable alternatives to VTI, however I'm having trouble finding a cheap ETF (or combination of 2) available to trade in Europe, that gives me similar exposure to VXUS. In particular any...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to value pension as a benefit at midcareer?
Replies: 17
Views: 1293

Re: How to value pension as a benefit at midcareer?

There have been several posts on pensions lately, including my own: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=272320 . There was discussion of valuation of pension but most of the conversation focused on the value of the pension at the time of retirement or receiving the benefit. Basical...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: personal rate of return
Replies: 29
Views: 2447

Re: personal rate of return

I think it is pretty tough to beat a LifeStrategy fund even if one is doing a 3-fund portfolio because of behavioral issues. One thing I did notice is life strategy mod growth (60/40 stock/bond) 10 yr return is 9.5% but that of life strategy growth (80/20 stock/bond ) is 11.1%. I am a bit surprised...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYC area, buying first home- where to begin?
Replies: 22
Views: 2024

Re: NYC area, buying first home- where to begin?

Aim to buy no more than 2-3xyour income . Make sure that you have enough down payment to cover 20% of that amount . See what that gets you in desired neighborhood. If it is nothing desirable then wait a little longer and save more. I doubt those multiples are realistic in the Greater New York City ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYC area, buying first home- where to begin?
Replies: 22
Views: 2024

Re: NYC area, buying first home- where to begin?

Don't sacrifice family time for more space. If you can't afford something you like somewhere that gives you roughly the same commute times as you have now (or better), than save more and wait longer to buy. Young children are only awake for so many hours a day. For example, a 3-year-old could be in...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:26 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Why are Australian Bond Yields Falling? (and not rising or staying flat?)
Replies: 7
Views: 496

Re: Why are Australian Bond Yields Falling? (and not rising or staying flat?)

Premium to what? What would happen, did happen, is that bond prices rose (fixed coupons became more attractive relative to other opportunities) and thus yields fell. That's logical if previous expectations of the future track of interest rates turned out to be too high. Thanks for helping me get my...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Why are Australian Bond Yields Falling? (and not rising or staying flat?)
Replies: 7
Views: 496

Re: Why are Australian Bond Yields Falling? (and not rising or staying flat?)

So if I understand correctly - we actually have two opposing forces at play in this situation: 1) In the last three months the view of a AUD rate rise has moved from very likely to neutral - with bias to the next move being down. In a normal health economy situation - am i correct that this would u...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 76
Views: 6206

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

Same-old, same-old. Every attempt to determine a "best time" runs into the usual contradiction. A few years ago, the narrative was that US stocks had a declining share of world market cap, and therefore the US was doomed and one had better start investing internationally. At one point--too lazy to ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Diamonds are forever.
Replies: 94
Views: 10502

Re: Diamonds are forever.

The De Beers diamond monopoly and price maintenance strategy is in the business economics textbooks - it is an absolute classic. There seems to be just a huge gap in value between retail price for diamonds v. wholesale & resale value. That suggests that some of the old market structure still pertain...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is this idea irrational?
Replies: 23
Views: 1233

Re: Is this idea irrational?

I am 62, retired, living on investments, a pension, and social security. My long term plan for solvency requires that I have an annual average return of no less than 5% over the next 30 years. My current AA is 60-40 stocks and bonds--all index fund ETF.s Already, this year, my return has been 7.5%....
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: EU investor: any way to avoid punitive US estate tax on death?
Replies: 28
Views: 1953

Re: EU investor: any way to avoid punitive US estate tax on death?

Just for my information. So you are not a US citizen, but you are US resident and plan to move to EU. I thought you were not able to hold US funds (FATCA)? Am I missing something? FATCA has nothing to do with holding US funds. Lots of foreigners hold US funds. (I am subject to FATCA and hold lots o...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good time to invest in emerging markets?
Replies: 22
Views: 2557

Re: Good time to invest in emerging markets?

Hello Everyone, I have been reading Money & Kiplinger magazines, plus the reports that T. Rowe Price sends me periodically and one thing that they have in common is a conviction that this is a particularity good time to invest in emerging markets. I have been burned by emerging markets in the past,...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 327 Years of British Equity History
Replies: 19
Views: 1965

Re: 327 Years of British Equity History

In 1975, Britain’s inflation rate hit 26%, 10-year bond yields rose to 17%, the stock market hit bottom after a 77% decline in real terms between 1972 and 1975 This is a good example of why I like the idea of CPI-adjusted annuities (or TIPS ladders) for basic retirement income. That would be a horr...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:08 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Why are Australian Bond Yields Falling? (and not rising or staying flat?)
Replies: 7
Views: 496

Re: Why are Australian Bond Yields Falling? (and not rising or staying flat?)

Hoping someone can explain why 10year AUD bond yields have dropped so fast in the last few months. https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-bond-yield I get how bonds pricing works. But i must be missing something here. From my perspective: - seems the likely hood of an interest rate incre...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds
Replies: 60
Views: 4565

Re: International bonds

I'm taking a closer look at Vanguard's new Global Credit Bond fund lately. This bond fund is on the lower end of investment-grade. For the same reason, the case for international diversification is much more obvious with it. Vanguard Global Credit seems like the most solid one-stop-shop replacement...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Index Investing Just Betting on The U.S Economy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5137

Re: Is Index Investing Just Betting on The U.S Economy?

But just curious is there any sane Logic behind why a Foreign NON US based economy would (stock market) crash when US stocks decline? For example, in 2008 a purely US crash - was well reverberated across the gulf (UAE, Qatar, Kuwait) all strong OIL exporting countries? Does this have to do with the...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 327 Years of British Equity History
Replies: 19
Views: 1965

Re: 327 Years of British Equity History

Global Financial Data (GFD) has released a (propriety, i.e. you have to pay to see it) set of data covering UK stock returns from 1692 to 2019; they've been working on collecting the data for about 10 years. A few interesting observations they make. GFD breaks down economic history into four eras: ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 327 Years of British Equity History
Replies: 19
Views: 1965

Re: 327 Years of British Equity History

For those knowledgeable about such things, are there compelling reasons to think "it's different this time," in our current environment? Is there a convincing argument to be made that things are so structurally different now that the above data has less applicability than may first appear? For one ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2743

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

Stocks represent a portion of the market value of the company, including all future expected profits with limitless upside but also greater risk to the downside. Bonds are limited to X interest rate, the lowest that the issuer can get away with charging. Plus return of capital. The redemption of bo...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:29 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Any US-based Pakistanis investing in DHA?
Replies: 20
Views: 1711

Re: Any US-based Pakistanis investing in DHA?

Something else to think about in the longer term with the three countries you mention is climate change. If the IPCC report is to be believed, most of Bangladesh will be under water and large parts of India and Pakistan will be physically uninhabitable. This is by the end of the century at the late...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2743

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

Looking at the next, say, 100 years in the US total stock and total bond markets. Assume the money is getting Roth-like tax treatment (no ongoing or terminal tax burden) and all dividends/distributions reinvested. No justifications on the basis of long-term historical data, please (“past performanc...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:46 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Any US-based Pakistanis investing in DHA?
Replies: 20
Views: 1711

Re: Any US-based Pakistanis investing in DHA?

Hi, Being a Pakistani settled in US, I'm curious if there are any Pakistani Bogleheads here that are also investing in DHA - Islamabad? This location comes up often as a prime investment and a lot of US-based Pakistani invest there. In my limited understanding of the Boglehead principles, the bulk ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:38 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Portfolio of EUR Index ETFs [Germany]
Replies: 5
Views: 360

Re: Portfolio of EUR Index ETFs [Germany]

Hello, I have recently started to document myself on investing, with goal to manage my finance on a 15/20 years target. I'd like to get your expert opinion on my investment planning: I have at present 30,000euro inflation-linked government-guaranteed bond that are returning around 1% per year after...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need help with frequent week-long stays in Boston over next 18 mos
Replies: 68
Views: 3296

Re: Need help with frequent week-long stays in Boston over next 18 mos

What do people think is the most financially beneficial way to lodge in Boston under these circumstances? Over the next 18 months or so I will need to stay in Boston on average about 10 work days a month (I will be flying in via Logan airport). It would be roughly in blocks of 4-6 days for each sta...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wasting Electricity for Fun and Profit
Replies: 58
Views: 5359

Re: Wasting Electricity for Fun and Profit

Our electric utility is always trying to convince us to buy less of their product by suggesting that we get rid of wonderful conveniences that make life more enjoyable. Perhaps you could add a second (and/or third) refrigerator... maybe in the garage, rec room, etc. https://lucept.files.wordpress.c...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond pricing theory
Replies: 11
Views: 735

Re: Bond pricing theory

Hello Bogleheads, I am currently working through William Bernstein's The Four Pillars of Investing and am confused by his discussion about bond pricing. He writes about a hypothetical annuity that pays $100 per year. Here are my questions: 1. What is the "current (market) interest rate" that determ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Index Investing Just Betting on The U.S Economy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5137

Re: Is Index Investing Just Betting on The U.S Economy?

I think the bigger story with Japan is poor demographics. Hard to grow productivity faster than the shrinking of the workforce. Having kids is a big part of fueling economic growth. I regard Japan's high debt to GDP ratio as a symptom of falling birthrates. A rising population and household formati...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Experience with Passive building?
Replies: 9
Views: 1093

Re: Experience with Passive building?

We live in a 4 season very humid climate and are planning on building. Does anyone have experience with passive buildings/ performance building? Suggested heating/cooling? House will be 1700-2000 plus basement and garage. THANKS! humid and passivhaus are tricky. other than parts of Italy and former...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wasting Electricity for Fun and Profit
Replies: 58
Views: 5359

Re: Consuming Electricity for Fun and Profit

The real issue is people do not understand electricity nor care about the giant machine needed to give them light and power. The US power grid is probably the largest system in the world. And physics controls electricity and requires the power company to balance the electric generated so that it ex...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wasting Electricity for Fun and Profit
Replies: 58
Views: 5359

Re: Consuming Electricity for Fun and Profit

From a Californian's perspective, that rate plan is completely bizarre. Texas might as well be another planet. Funny that you said that. Texas is actually a separate electric grid. See this: http://fnetpublic.utk.edu/frequencymap.html I think that is changing and ERCOT is now allowing High Voltage ...