Search found 34827 matches

by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese ETF or Gold or something else?
Replies: 17
Views: 1140

Re: Chinese ETF or Gold or something else?

Those money market funds I recommended pay 5% with minimal additional risk. 余额宝 Is already the world’s largest money market fund with almost $300B USD in assets. Not sure where you get the idea it’s not “serious”. Would you recommend Chinese corporate bonds for US investors? Like DSUM or CBON? I wo...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 337
Views: 21448

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Perhaps it's time for Elon to step down as CEO and put someone in charge who knows how to properly run a public company. I get that he's a "big ideas" guy who wants to change the world. That's fine. As CTO, he can do that, setting the direction of what Tesla is going to do. <snip> ha! Well said, an...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enough. How do I invest in Australia.
Replies: 18
Views: 1030

Re: Enough. How do I invest in Australia.

There has been a claim, not the first I have heard on this site, that Australia securities have grown faster than US securities since 1900. I follow the data. I don't follow feelings. I don't follow schools of thought. I don't believe in International vs US. I don't care. I'm here to make money. Ho...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 425
Views: 22952

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

That's very true of most world markets. Australia, for instance, has a market capitalization of about $1.5 trillion. But the U.S. is roughly 50% of the world's market capitalization, over $30 trillion. The U.S. only investor is buying a stake in 50% of the world's stock; no other home-country-only ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retire in Florida or Alabama?
Replies: 94
Views: 5895

Re: Retire in Florida or Alabama?

Seawalls are obviously just one form of technology, you just listed a few others that are also effective and that can also be implemented incrementally. Well none of it is free. Expect taxes to go up. And if the OP's parents are retiring for the beaches, they will not protected with pumps. Agreed, ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retire in Florida or Alabama?
Replies: 94
Views: 5895

Re: Retire in Florida or Alabama?

My personal opinion is that due to climate change buying beach-front or beach-adjacent property anywhere in the southern half (and possibly even the northern half) of the United States is a risk not worth taking. In 20 years many of those areas will be unrecognizable. At the bare minimum the disrup...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index Fund Investing in Sweden, for Swede's
Replies: 10
Views: 449

Re: Index Fund Investing in Sweden, for Swede's

A lot of folks use Investor AB as a sort of Berkshire Hathaway in Sweden. They own stakes in a wide swath of Sweden's large companies, but not quite as diversified as Berkshire. I don't own Berkshire, so don't recommend Investor AB, but people do equate the two in Sweden. Lovely company and all tha...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 425
Views: 22952

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Depends on your dating of the Fall of Rome ;-). Note that the Roman Republic lasted a lot shorter time. The Roman Empire was very different - it was deliberately multicultural (making citizens of prominent members of *all* the subject peoples) and latterly Rome was capital in name only - the real c...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index Fund Investing in Sweden, for Swede's
Replies: 10
Views: 449

Re: Index Fund Investing in Sweden, for Swede's

I am trying to help a friend,who lives in Stockholm, and is trying to start investing in Sweden. She has read all the perquisite Boglehead material, but is having trouble finding access to true index funds there. I am struggling, as does google Translate it seems, and trying to decipher some of the...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese ETF or Gold or something else?
Replies: 17
Views: 1140

Re: Chinese ETF or Gold or something else?

The problem with Gold is there are a lot of investment experts that recommend a position and a lot that do not. Gold is essentially a rock that does not provide any earnings growth or dividends. I would avoid this asset class. Theoretically we could buy Gold ETF in China using Renminbi and short Go...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Advice Sought
Replies: 11
Views: 914

Re: Investment Advice Sought

Hello Everyone, I wanted to first say that I appreciate the forum and the time more seasoned investors dedicate to helping younger investors. Emergency funds: 3 Mos Debt:0 Tax Filing Status: Single Tax Rate: xx% Federal, xx% State (Unsure) State of Residence:VA Age: 30 Desired Asset allocation: xx%...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 425
Views: 22952

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Depends on your dating of the Fall of Rome ;-). Note that the Roman Republic lasted a lot shorter time. The Roman Empire was very different - it was deliberately multicultural (making citizens of prominent members of *all* the subject peoples) and latterly Rome was capital in name only - the real c...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Housing affordability - what is your take?
Replies: 73
Views: 6421

Re: Housing affordability - what is your take?

Couple things. Seems like you are buying a family house as a single person. You are buying in a ritzy area. $500/sqft is ritzy. ;-). The poorest, cheapest area of London (London Borough of Barking and Dagenham) is c. £500 psf (say USD 650-700). I could show you what USD 500 would buy you here, thin...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inheritance tax on UK assets owned by non-UK residents?
Replies: 11
Views: 502

Re: Inheritance tax on UK assets owned by non-UK residents?

More generally, even for UK-domiciled assets, I can't believe that the British happily fork over 40% of everything above GBP 325,000 to the government when they pop off. Happily? No, not at all. It's a ridiculously low exemption, and hasn't been uprated for inflation in decades. The major assets of...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why bonds when they return nothing over inflation?
Replies: 26
Views: 4054

Re: Why bonds when they return nothing over inflation?

"Bonds are not in my portfolio to make money, they are to provide downside support against volatility in my portfolio." This is paraphrased from Paul Merriman and the actual quote is in my IPS. Again, personal finance is personal. As long as one can sleep well at night with their allocation AND not...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?
Replies: 17
Views: 813

Re: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?

I use XMPT which is a muni bond ETF that follows the S-Network Municipal Bond Closed-End Fund Index. I wanted the leverage and didn't want to have to choose a single CEF. I read everything I could about how such funds performed in previous rising rate environments and was confident I could hold to ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are merchants more (too) careless these days?
Replies: 24
Views: 1976

Re: Are merchants more (too) careless these days?

An interesting reply to my self is that companies are seeking to drive up productivity to reduce labour costs. Amazon is famous for this.

That pushes workers to work harder, and they make more mistakes. The equivalent of speeding up a car production line, where quality control is not measured.
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are merchants more (too) careless these days?
Replies: 24
Views: 1976

Re: Are merchants more (too) careless these days?

The solution, of course, is for companies to pay more highly and get better people. They fiercely resist this. Wage growth stays stuck at c. 2.5% and does not comfortably beat inflation. Real wages, especially at the bottom of the employment pyramid, are not rising - from memory they are just about...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 425
Views: 22952

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Seriously though, I wouldn't bet against the US. Yes, every party comes to an end, but parties can go on much longer than you can imagine. Even if the US lasts half as long as the Roman empire, it would sill have a good 200 years ahead of it. Depends on your dating of the Fall of Rome ;-). Note tha...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?
Replies: 17
Views: 813

Re: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?

I’m suspicious of any bond fund or cef that doesn’t disclose the sec yield and many of these do not. It is very easy to make the distribution yield look good through leverage, inverse floaters, etc. all smoke and mirrors. One way to think about the discount is as a function of the expense ratio and...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why bonds when they return nothing over inflation?
Replies: 26
Views: 4054

Re: Why bonds when they return nothing over inflation?

Thanks for taking the time to write such a long post. It looks like your argument is towards the chance of a major economic crisis in Australia, and yes I do agree there are some shaky bridges. I am mitigating that particular risk by having a large diverse international equities base. But point tak...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Residential vs Commercial Property Landlord
Replies: 6
Views: 650

Re: Residential vs Commercial Property Landlord

Hoping someone with commercial landlord experience can chime in. Currently I'm renting out a condo that's helping me pay off the mortgage and the tenant so far has been pretty good. I've read and heard many horror residential landlord stories so thinking ahead if my current tenant's move out I migh...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese ETF or Gold or something else?
Replies: 17
Views: 1140

Re: Chinese ETF or Gold or something else?

Thank you for your ideas. I'm fairly certain that the Gold ETF does what it says so it tracks the Gold prices accurately. There are ways to buy physical gold coins/bullion but obviously those have higher mark-up and are harder to liquidate or to take out of China. It is hard to avoid linking our in...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are merchants more (too) careless these days?
Replies: 24
Views: 1976

Re: Are merchants more (too) careless these days?

The solution, of course, is for companies to pay more highly and get better people. They fiercely resist this. Wage growth stays stuck at c. 2.5% and does not comfortably beat inflation. Real wages, especially at the bottom of the employment pyramid, are not rising - from memory they are just about ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?
Replies: 17
Views: 813

Re: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?

Just wondering if anyone holds any CEFs and if so, why? Could there be any advantage in some asset classes like bonds to holding these actively managed funds with higher ERs than any index fund? A lot of them trade at a big discount to NAV at times. Most pay a much higher yield than any MF or ETF. ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese ETF or Gold or something else?
Replies: 17
Views: 1140

Re: Chinese ETF or Gold or something else?

The problem with Gold is there are a lot of investment experts that recommend a position and a lot that do not. Gold is essentially a rock that does not provide any earnings growth or dividends. I would avoid this asset class. The situation for someone in a country with exchange controls is rather ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 425
Views: 22952

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I never invested in international, but not because it is not doing well it is because years ago I read Common Sense on Mutual Funds and John Bogle's chapter on that subject resonated with me so much that I felt it wasn't necessary. Having said that, just when you stop investing in it, it will do be...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why bonds when they return nothing over inflation?
Replies: 26
Views: 4054

Re: Why bonds when they return nothing over inflation?

I'm from Australia, and high interest cash accounts return the same as bonds there, so bonds makes no sense to me in this situation. Also it is at the end of a multi-decade bull run in bonds as interest rates went from 17% in the late 80's steadily down to a point where it can't go much/any lower. ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese ETF or Gold or something else?
Replies: 17
Views: 1140

Re: Chinese ETF or Gold or something else?

Hello fellow bogleheads, My parents are expecting to receive a large lump sum of money in China in the next few months. Our plan is to convert most of these money to USD and purchase stocks and rental properties in the United States in the future. Because of the annual limit on how much USD we can ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation US vs EM vs EU
Replies: 3
Views: 519

Re: Valuation US vs EM vs EU

Fellow Bogleheads, I found this article comparing valuation by adjusting for differences in sector composition between the US, EM and EU. Conclusion is that the US due to the higher exposure to tech and healthcare, which historically have higher valuation, seems expensive compare to other markets. ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 425
Views: 22952

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

With a keen knowledge of the concept of "Stay the Course" and "Don't Buy High and Sell Low" and most importantly "Don't Try to Time the Market" I cannot simply put my head in the sand and pretend that the last ten years or more have been anything other then a disappointment for those of us with Int...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK asset allocation: Help & Suggestion
Replies: 6
Views: 359

Re: UK asset allocation: Help & Suggestion

Thank you noted your comments. The vanguard global bond is GBP hedged. Then I would be 70/ 30 equities/ bonds and roll with it. Making rebalancing even simpler. The impact of currency hedging is to lower the yield to the risk free rate in the hedged currency + a credit spread. So in the case of the...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9720

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

Just a quick look at both the EM total stock, and the EM total bond - Turkey - VWO - stock - 0.9% - https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/portfolio/vwo VWOB - bond - 4.3% - https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/portfolio/VWOB Underlining my issue with EM bonds. The weightings are driven by ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Brazil
Replies: 3
Views: 312

Re: Investing in Brazil

No clue if this topic really fits here, but... My girlfriend is a Brazilian national and owns an apartment there and would therefore like to invest the savings she has in Brazil in Brazil. Because I know nothing about investing in Brazil, I have looked into Brazilian robo-advisors, of which there s...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help needed understanding Global small cap risk
Replies: 6
Views: 314

Re: Help needed understanding Global small cap risk

You could mitigate this risk by splitting small caps to US and ex-US. Try this VIOO - Vanguard S&P 600 VSS - Vanguard ex-US small caps Unfortunately I'm based in u.k and vanguard u.k doesn't provide these 2 choices You just have to wear the risk. It's as bad, generally, for US stocks in the Total M...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1509

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Depends on price they charge. Don't they just hold a portfolio of TIPS? US TIPS these day...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preferred stock as bond substitute: is there a thread?
Replies: 6
Views: 509

Re: Preferred stock as bond substitute: is there a thread?

In fact, I cannot think of any reason why a non financial company would issue preference shares - given that it can issue investment grade or high yield (junk) bonds instead. Except perhaps some quite speculative companies (like biotech) that just cannot afford to have more debt on their balance sh...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for owner of commercial real estate company
Replies: 3
Views: 353

Re: Asset allocation for owner of commercial real estate company

Hello, I wanted to run this portfolio by you. I own an ecommerce business and a commercial real estate company. I won’t be counting the value of the ecommerce business because I don’t plan on selling and the multiple is anyone’s guess. The value of the real estate, however, is easily estimated so I...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Currency hedging retirement savings in IRA
Replies: 3
Views: 342

Re: Currency hedging retirement savings in IRA

Next year, when I'm 59 1/2, I'm able to make an in-service distribution from my megacorp's 401k and will likely move about $500k to a Schwab roll-over IRA. When I retire a few years later (probably 2022) I'll move to the UK from Texas and live on that money until some UK pensions and Social Securit...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preferred stock as bond substitute: is there a thread?
Replies: 6
Views: 509

Re: Preferred stock as bond substitute: is there a thread?

Hello all - Looking for perspective on having at least some part of bond allocation consist of preferred stock fund ( like PGX). Is there a thread where this was discussed (did not see one, but my search could have been faulty)? Would welcome some perspective! Thanks for any guidance. For any given...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9720

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

Turkey's stock market had a P/E of 7 (and a forward P/E of 6) on 31 July. TUR (iShares Turkey ETF) is down 35% since then. It may be a candidate for some play money. But have an entry/exit strategy, because this may be going to 0. I don't think so, but I wouldn't be absolutely shocked to see Turkey...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK asset allocation: Help & Suggestion
Replies: 6
Views: 359

Re: UK asset allocation: Help & Suggestion

Hello all I’m a UK investor. After few years educating my self and reading investment books, I’m ready to change my investment approach. What do you think of this allocation of tracker funds: 25% vanguard global bond 65% vanguard FTSE global all cap 5% vanguard global small cap 5% Ishares global pr...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can I buy a Tesla?
Replies: 103
Views: 7137

Re: Can I buy a Tesla?

Just wanted to update here since I got so many useful replies. I bought the fully loaded model 3 :sharebeer Good for you. Cars are an odd mix of (1) practical necessity and (2) aesthetic consumption item - so which of the two are we after here? If (1) it's a hard "No, get (e.g.) a 5-year old Camry....
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which is better? [Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) or Total World (VT)?]
Replies: 29
Views: 2361

Re: Which is better?

Is someone really a BH if they don’t know these two symbols by now? Should be a pre-requisite. I use VTI. Doesn’t mean anything in regards to what the OP may consider better though. Would this be in your RRSP or your TFSA? Or your ISA or your SIPP? Is it approved by the FCA? Is it UCITS VI complian...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: reliable online public forum
Replies: 24
Views: 2029

Re: reliable online public forum

Liberty1100 wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:53 am
Reddit.com and it’s variety of subReddits will cover all of those topics.
Whoosh

Don't you find the crazies there? I have dabbled a little and found the viewpoints to be ... Extreme?
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9720

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

And increasingly, if the U.S. takes a dive, so does international. Seemingly all of the downside without the upside. It doesn't take much looking to find periods of significant cross sectional outperformance for foreign stocks. There are a lot of moving parts in the global economy and I would be su...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial structuring advice for US citizen in Australia
Replies: 5
Views: 530

Re: Financial structuring advice for US citizen in Australia

All, I am looking for advice on how to structure my investments in Australia in relation to US taxes. I am a US/Aus citizen who has not lived in the US for decades (adult life). There are a few local people who can prepare US taxes, but I have yet to find anyone that can advise on investments/ fami...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Canadian Citizen and Resident
Replies: 7
Views: 544

Re: Canadian Citizen and Resident

ETF’s are hard to dollar cost average via monthly contributions cause of commissions. Perhaps the most inexpensive way is to buy the Canadian brokerages index fund equivalent even though their MER is higher than the States? It depends. The Canadian index fund equivalents can be a *lot* higher. Thus...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Canadian Citizen and Resident
Replies: 7
Views: 544

Re: Canadian Citizen and Resident

ETF’s are hard to dollar cost average via monthly contributions cause of commissions. Perhaps the most inexpensive way is to buy the Canadian brokerages index fund equivalent even though their MER is higher than the States? It depends. The Canadian index fund equivalents can be a *lot* higher. Thus...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9720

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

Turkey is such a small portion of the Total International Stock Index Fund, yet the fund lost nearly 2% today. I'm ready to seriously rethink the international stock portion (33%) of my equity allocation. And this isn't about market timing. It seems to be an recurring pattern. Something bad happens...