Search found 34109 matches

by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Guidance with Stock Options
Replies: 5
Views: 514

Re: Guidance with Stock Options

First time poster, long time reader. I respect and adopt many of the principles espoused on this forum. I have no previous experience with stock options. Last year I served a one year writing fellowship with a website company. Upon completion of the fellowship, I was granted non-qualified stock opt...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index
Replies: 13
Views: 879

Re: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index

Hi Valuethinker I've decided to go with your suggestion on 10 percent of the ordinarily gilt index fund. I've also decided to up bonds by another 10 percent and use this for the Global bonds fund. I think the two combined offer me some diversification benefits and should atleast provide pretty dece...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 114
Views: 6333

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

lack_ey wrote: But haven't they determined that the cost of currency hedging is something like single digits (or was it low teens) basis points for developed currencies back to USD? I think you're overstating the costs here. That being the effective "spread" they cross to enter into the currency fo...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]
Replies: 12
Views: 632

Re: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]

Thank you very much everyone, for your educational responses and excellent points! So, to summarize: it sounds like in the short-term, you could possibly lose/gain money by choosing either VTI or VUN, but if one is investing over the long term (which I am), then the exchange rate fluctuations are l...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 114
Views: 6333

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

I totally agree with Rick and see no use in adding international bonds to a diversified US bond portfolio. US bonds historically have been if not the safest, certainly among the safest in the world. They are denominated in dollars the currency we spend. Currency exchange increases costs and adds cu...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying T-bills ..help needed
Replies: 17
Views: 1778

Re: Buying T-bills ..help needed

Can someone address the 2 questions under #3: how to sell t-bill before maturity? I have always held to maturity, but in the current rising yield environment, it may be wise to sell and replace with better yield new issues. But how to calculate the tradeoffs? Not for periods up to 360 days. You'd n...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Hedge Currency Risk? [for US ex-pats and non-US investors]
Replies: 8
Views: 498

Re: How to Hedge Currency Risk?

Thanks for starting this thread. I think the US dollar carries risk, not only relative to foreign travel, but also in case of a dramatic move relative to other currencies. I am certainly no currency expert, but my impression is that the past forty years have been unusually stable for the dollar. I ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mid May trip to Malta
Replies: 5
Views: 538

Re: Mid May trip to Malta

The title says it all. Wife and friend headed to Malta in May. Would love to hear any feedback that could improve their trip! Thanks in advance. We travelled around by local bus, but renting a car is certainly possible. There is a fabulous seafood restaurant in St Paul . Can't remember the name off...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]
Replies: 12
Views: 632

Re: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]

Hello there, I'm confused about how listed currencies affect ETF returns. More specifically, the returns on USD-denominated ETFs, vs similar ETFs denominated in Canadian dollars. For instance, an ETF like VTI, which is USD-denominated and tracks the US total market, compared to an ETF like VUN, whi...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lending Club Investing
Replies: 26
Views: 2136

Re: Lending Club Investing

I have been using lending club for 5 years. Returns have consistently dwindled and for the past two years I have let my account spend down and should be finished by next year. My return has dropped from 13% the first year to 2.5%. when the robo institutions jumped in, the best loans would get bough...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 48
Views: 2468

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

13.3% Total US Bond Market 13.3% TIPS 13.3% Unhedged International Treasury Bond (IGOV) In practice, there's unlikely to be a large difference in performance from your previous outcome. You've also made rebalancing more complicated. Thus, do not do this if: - it leads to more taxable events - besid...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5396

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

but why are they more corrupt or dishonest than developed countries? If you have to ask the question, you shouldn't be invested in Russia. you mean that Russians are much more dishonest (assuming that's possible) than say Madoff or Kenneth Lay? I am hoping that you are being rhetorical and the flaw...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing (uk)
Replies: 6
Views: 372

Re: New to investing (uk)

Thanks for that a lot. I think you have changed me from 80/20 to 60/40 knowing this or even 70/30. I do like vanguard funds. I have always done index funds and had bad and good years but over all been pretty much upwards for the last 20yrs. I have a iii sipp with low costs. Will look at again in dr...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hong Kong Investor Portfolio and Asset Allocation Question
Replies: 16
Views: 907

Re: Hong Kong Investor Portfolio and Asset Allocation Question

I’ve had some time thinking about my situation and the advice I received. Just wanted to follow up on something regarding staying out of the property market. As mentioned, I don’t feel comfortable committing to buying so will be renting. But this got me thinking about two things (and this would app...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 48
Views: 2468

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

I am also struggling with this. I'm a semi-retired US citizen living in the EU (perhaps permanently but not sure yet) with a typical 60/40 portfolio held with a US broker. My living expenses are in Euros but I'm taking periodic withdrawals from a portfolio of USD. Besides increasing my ex-US equity...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tencent now largest non-US stock
Replies: 37
Views: 4075

Re: Tencent now largest non-US stock

That's the difference. In one case, it is a government actively encouraging specific accounting methods and practices for political reasons. In the other, it is individual companies breaking the law and, when caught, paying the price. Can't see the difference, there? Tencent currently has a higher ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lending Club Investing
Replies: 26
Views: 2136

Re: Lending Club Investing

So does a default loan just get refunded back to you as original loan amount? You are the lender. If someone defaults, any remaining principal and interest is written off. LC started off as a good idea, then went full "we would make more money if we allowed really big financial institutions an oppo...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 114
Views: 6333

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

The current US total market bond (VBTLX) sec yield is 2.99% and the current total international bond (VTABX) sec yield is 0.81%. If the sec yields were switched, with US at 0.81% and international at 2.99%, would you change your mind? I presume the US fund would have a large gain in price, and the ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relationship between Housing prices and wages
Replies: 3
Views: 552

Re: Relationship between Housing prices and wages

With rapidly increasing housing prices, I am wondering if wages are increasing on an average across the country. Certainly DH salary is barely keeping up with inflation. Curious if our salary hikes are in the lower end of the current trend. There does not seem to be a lot of correlation between hou...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing (uk)
Replies: 6
Views: 372

Re: New to investing (uk)

Thanks for that a lot. I think you have changed me from 80/20 to 60/40 knowing this or even 70/30. I do like vanguard funds. I have always done index funds and had bad and good years but over all been pretty much upwards for the last 20yrs. I have a iii sipp with low costs. Will look at again in dr...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing (uk)
Replies: 6
Views: 372

Re: New to investing (uk)

Having consolidated all my pensions since 18-49 I have amassed a amount of £280,000 which I need to re-invest. Any advice on if i am doing the corect thing I am thinking about £200k in vanguard lifestrategy 80 because this is going to be not just for 5yrs but probably until I die and drawing down a...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 114
Views: 6333

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

I've been thinking of dumping mine. I am 75/25 with 25% of the 25% being international bonds. It is really only 6% of my portfolio presently, so not really providing much diversification. It's not producing much drag either, but probably not worth bothering with. The actual 12 mo yields aren't that...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying T-bills ..help needed
Replies: 17
Views: 1778

Re: Buying T-bills ..help needed

Hello Friends, First of all thanks again for being so helpful ! I was trying to buy T-bills. I looked for the information online. It appears there are 2 ways to buy it - treasurey direct or secondary market (brokerage account). I couldn't fully grasp the process via TD (bidding, etc.), so thought o...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Freeze - What did you do?
Replies: 85
Views: 9144

Re: Pension Freeze - What did you do?

.... For many years, and even just a month ago, the CEO stood up and reported in person to the employees that we are excellent workers, our customers love us, and we have a bright future. Apparently they were always lying. Not really a surprise, but what was the point of the deception? And I am sur...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 114
Views: 6333

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

Valuethinker, I've explained how I invest my money and why I do it that way. I won't put 97% of my money into foreign investments and into derivatives. Anyone else is free to do otherwise. It's their money, after all. You mean 48.5% (50% - 0.5 x 3% Canadian weighting in world market)? The 50% in bo...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Strategy for Use of Restricted Stock Units
Replies: 17
Views: 1016

Re: Strategy for Use of Restricted Stock Units

I received restricted stock units as part of my annual bonus for the first time and I’m unsure what to do with them. They vest over a 3 year period and I expect to continue to receive additional RSUs every year assuming continued performance of my company. I don’t have a specific need for the money...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 114
Views: 6333

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

I don't invest into foreign bonds ; not into currency-hedged ones because of their use of derivatives, nor into currency-unhedged ones because of their exposure to wild currency fluctuations overwhelming their returns in domestic currency. The only reason to do so is to diversify credit risk. I pon...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds beat stocks ?
Replies: 10
Views: 851

Re: Bonds beat stocks ?

I read in a 2012 post that bonds have beat us stocks over the last decade. Can someone explain how that is possible. When Bonds earn 9% in the best years for bonds and the S&P 500 earns over 20% in a good year. You have seen the best nearly 40 years for bonds in history. And the last 10 years have ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 48
Views: 2468

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

Not sure I understand, you are in Europe, but you use a US broker ? Regardless, I'm sure there are plenty of euro bonds ETF's out there. Yes, I'm in Europe most of the time, but I'm a US person and I cannot buy funds on an European broker Tell me just one euro bond ETF (in euros) that I can get in ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Freeze - What did you do?
Replies: 85
Views: 9144

Re: Pension Freeze - What did you do?

So here is how it has turned out! :shock: Lots of the severely affected people (my peer group) muttered under their breaths for a few months. Grouping, talking, mostly complaining, then analyzing, then wondering what to do. The company made what I would call a misstep, trying to explain the "change...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Freeze - What did you do?
Replies: 85
Views: 9144

Re: Pension Freeze - What did you do?

The reasons for the freeze appear to be much more along the lines you state - reducing corporate uncertainty - than any real and detectable crisis. That's where the anger comes from. It appears to be largely punitive against good people, rather than fiscally necessary. A decision based on scary and...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I continue to hold REITs?
Replies: 48
Views: 3554

Re: Should I continue to hold REITs?

I think its really misleading that REITS here are referenced en masse when what is being talked about is a US REIT fund. There are plenty of great REITS out in the rest of the world. Maybe if someone wants REITS but isn't fancying US REITS they could look at expanding their ''international'' alloca...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 20, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index
Replies: 13
Views: 879

Re: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index

Hmmm 🤔 there is alot to this choice of bonds thing isnt there Valuethinker 🙂. The description of circumstances of long term bonds and equities heading down together have gave pause for thought. Although really do find hard to accept such low returns on the ST Gilts. The good news is that, with 10% ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 20, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Eurobonds
Replies: 6
Views: 456

Re: Investing in Eurobonds

Turkey has a credit rating is BB (junk bond). The usual wisdom (Ben Graham and others) is that an individual investor should only invest in the prime bond market (high credit rating). You can see it this way: you are only going to make a marginal gain by investing into lower quality bonds compared ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 20, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Eurobonds
Replies: 6
Views: 456

Re: Investing in Eurobonds

Some of my money is in Ally savings which has the highest interest rate for savings 1.75% and there is no penalty in early withdrawals So the risk is zero there but I was willing to increase the risk just a bit not much and invest in something else and earn more maybe 2-3% at most I found Eurobonds...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 11056

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

One of the BH is paying close to 80K per year for his child to attend Yale. I don't think Yale is going to go bankrupt if their endowment did not do well for a year or not! I am sure they cover their expenses from their students. No. Yale Endowment provides about 1/3rd of the university's operating...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Rating of Ally Bank?
Replies: 6
Views: 880

Re: Credit Rating of Ally Bank?

VT, The rating you stated is for Ally Financial, Inc., the holding company of the Ally bank which is a FDIC insured commercial bank supervised by the Federal Reserve. The bank itself is rated 4-star (out of 5) by a reputable bank rating source of Bauer Financial. A 4-Star rating is an “Excellent” r...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index
Replies: 13
Views: 879

Re: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/uk Yield on 10 year gilt 1.49% Yield on 30 year gilt 1.89% Unless you believe the UK is going into a deflationary slump, then you are being paid very little for the additional risk of holding the 30 year bond (0.4% - 40 basis points). I ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How risky to have savings more than $250k FDIC limit?
Replies: 42
Views: 7560

Re: How risky to have savings more than $250k FDIC limit?

Is there any reason to be seriously concerned about being beyond the insured limit while I hold the money there? Yes. Two of my banks have gone out of business during the last four years. I strongly recommend not to take this risk, not even for a day. A bump from old times What are people’s thought...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Rating of Ally Bank?
Replies: 6
Views: 880

Credit Rating of Ally Bank?

Dear All Ally Bank is frequently mentioned here as a place where BHers keep their savings. It appears to be the former GMAC vehicle finance business. I went and looked up the Credit Rating. It appears that S&P and Fitch rate it BB+. That is significantly speculative. Below investment grade Questions...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lack of FDIC Insurance a big deal?
Replies: 39
Views: 3521

Re: Lack of FDIC Insurance a big deal?

Hey guys, I'm strongly considering closing my Ally account and moving my cash to a Vanguard Prime money market. This would be used as my EF, vacation fund, house DP, ect. This seems ideal because it has a higher yield and it would be one less account to deal with. The only thing that keeps botherin...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 3848

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

One downside is that an emerging global middle class will demand middle class energy consumption. What is good for the global economy is generally bad for the environment and energy use. If all we can say is, "Do as we say, not as we do," that's not going to cut it. Think of it as an effluent probl...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Eurobonds
Replies: 6
Views: 456

Re: Investing in Eurobonds

Some of my money is in Ally savings which has the highest interest rate for savings 1.75% and there is no penalty in early withdrawals So the risk is zero there but I was willing to increase the risk just a bit not much and invest in something else and earn more maybe 2-3% at most I found Eurobonds...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 124
Views: 11847

Re: Why International again?

The debate centers around whether international is necessary rather than whether it is a poor investment. It provides further diversification, but it does require additional analysis in order to incorporate another fund in one's portfolio. Occam's Razor supports adopting the simplest explanation th...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 3848

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

I don't know what you are talking about. I have not taken a vacation to any of these places or anything remote in last several years and my HH income is way over the median U.S income and so is my net worth. I feel poor reading the responses to threads like - can I retire with $4 million in assets ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index
Replies: 13
Views: 879

Re: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index

Thank you Valuethinker real helpful again which is very much appreciated. As with Vanguard the fund I am looking at is www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/vanguard-uk-long-duration-gilt-index-fund-gbp-gross-accumulation-shares/overview?intcmpgn=fixedincomeuk_uklongdurationgiltindexfund_fund_link...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 48
Views: 2468

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

Yes.. Now we just have to find real world examples. i'd be interesting in knowing if the volatility theory holds up. And how it's correlated with the long term trend (e.g. maximum drops). I guess it wouldn't be too difficult to get a rough graph on a spreadsheet In the meantime, I guess I can do: 1...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 5081

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

Lack_ey, I agree that the shape of the BTOP50 index looks more like some kind of continuous, smooth slowdown, not a corner at 2007. I'm not quite sure what the BTOP50 Index is; these don't seem to be mutual funds: AlphaGen Capital Limited (Long Short Agriculture Fund AlphaSimplex Group, LLC (Manage...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to Include Emerging Markets in the Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 605

Re: Want to Include Emerging Markets in the Portfolio

This is our first time to finally get out of credit card debt and fully contribute to our retirement. 1. I am wanting to add Emerging Markets (VEMAX) to the portfolio. Is there too much overlap if I use VTIAX and VEMAX and split 50/50 for international? That looks like a very significant overweight...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 48
Views: 2468

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

Euro (government) bonds have currently a very low return, and do carry risk related to some countries. De to this, Euro investors are often advised on guys forum to invest in global bonds hedged to the Euro (addicts affect through diversification) or in government insured savings accounts (this add...