Search found 34583 matches

by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Biggest financial decision of my life: selling a big wad of options
Replies: 20
Views: 1376

Re: Biggest financial decision of my life: selling a big wad of options

I know too many Nortel millionaires who didn't sell. Now in addition to not having that money their pensions have also been cut. Also met a couple of former Enron employees.v and even a couple of Bear Stearns types. The employees owned 25 per cent of that company. I would sell half, right now. The r...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Housing Starts Drop Sharply -- Barrons.com
Replies: 7
Views: 1985

Re: Housing Starts Drop Sharply -- Barrons.com

Consult Calculated Risk blog which has the best handle on these statistics ofcsny source that I know. Given US economy has lowest unemployment and highest growth of any time since pre 2008, I doubt this is a harbinger of recession. It's more likely to be shortages of construction workers and key mat...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Movies of 2017
Replies: 42
Views: 4187

Re: Best Movies of 2017

If you have not seen Logan (again, not the same as Logan Lucky, which is also good), do yourself a favor and check that out (some tolerance for violence needed). A lot of people think it was snubbed on Best Picture and two acting nominations. In addition to that, I'd agree with you on Florida Proje...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Crypto Allocation
Replies: 37
Views: 2890

Re: High Crypto Allocation

I am almost 100% ignorant when it comes to cryptocurrency, and I get by on what I hear my friends and coworkers talking about. What bothers me the most is when I hear them talk about the selling aspects. It isn't the buying I would be concerned about. It is easy to take your cash and move it into c...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Movies of 2017
Replies: 42
Views: 4187

Re: Best Movies of 2017

10) Darkest Hour A film that played fast and loose with history in quite a few ways. Once you realize that, it felt a bit manipulative: - Churchill was not a great Parliamentary speaker, and his speech did not bring the House down - Churchill did not walk up the District Line polling the views of t...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11245

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Bodie discusses a LEAPS ladder in a general way. https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=13709806600708811607211900010801708900001802308600802810106809509407506803012300602406005509812106700710502911001704401709304609408609606912207208300211909306302000800610212100009607411200709007609602111100...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Allocation and Underperformance vs US
Replies: 15
Views: 839

Re: International Allocation and Underperformance vs US

I believe the concept here of outperformance vs. underperformance is largely an illusion that is based on the strength and weakness of the dollar. The stocks themselves are highly correlated. Your argument could be not to invest in international for that reason alone, i.e. why bother when the two m...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Crypto Allocation
Replies: 37
Views: 2890

Re: High Crypto Allocation

Reminds me of the idiotic platitudes my broke relatives say before going to the casino. "Go big or go home baby!!" "Put it on black and let it ride!" If you believe in something enough to have 5% of your portfolio in it, why would that imply you should have any more than 5% of your portfolio in it?...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 73
Views: 4766

Re: Invest in Tesla?

The bear case and negativity regarding TSLA has always been present and to date just plain old WRONG Asking about TSLA @ BH forum really comes across as trolling... this is not the place to discuss individual stock investing. Having said that my price target has always been a minimum of $2,000 per ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5013

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Another example of this is Emerging Markets Equities versus Emerging Markets Bonds. Or reinsurance :twisted: I think the saying "take your risk on the equity side" doesn't really mean much and feels like a hold over from simplistic CAPM analysis where there are only two things to invest in. The que...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 219
Views: 9849

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Why are rents so high in LCOL areas? Probably better to frame it the other way. Why are rental cap rates so low in HCOL areas? The answer is expectations of price appreciation. Also, if prices drop in a HCOL area, then there are lots of buyers, priced out of the market, who come in and buy. The own...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11245

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Hello fellow Bogleheads, I come in peace. I need some pointers from the wiser heads around here because I’m having some trouble internally reconciling a concept. That concept is leverage. I understand the basic concept and mechanic of leverage and how it acts as a double-edged sword, magnifying bot...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 73
Views: 4766

Re: Invest in Tesla?

The bear case and negativity regarding TSLA has always been present and to date just plain old WRONG Asking about TSLA @ BH forum really comes across as trolling... this is not the place to discuss individual stock investing. Having said that my price target has always been a minimum of $2,000 per ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11245

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

ULPIX and similar leveraged ETFs are very misunderstood in general. They are only intended for day trading. ULPIX is not expected to even approximately double the return of the S&P 500 over any period longer than one trading day because it is "reset" each day. I agree that these products are genera...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 73
Views: 4766

Re: Invest in Tesla?

The bear case and negativity regarding TSLA has always been present and to date just plain old WRONG Asking about TSLA @ BH forum really comes across as trolling... this is not the place to discuss individual stock investing. Having said that my price target has always been a minimum of $2,000 per ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 73
Views: 4766

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Is it a good time to buy Tesla? What do you know about Tesla that the people at Goldman Sachs do not? Goldman Sachs knows enough to be the 15th largest institutional owner to tesla stock according to the last 13-F filed. If this is GS Asset Management then they may hold it on behalf of their client...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11245

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Hello fellow Bogleheads, I come in peace. I need some pointers from the wiser heads around here because I’m having some trouble internally reconciling a concept. That concept is leverage. I understand the basic concept and mechanic of leverage and how it acts as a double-edged sword, magnifying bot...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11245

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

ULPIX and similar leveraged ETFs are very misunderstood in general. They are only intended for day trading. ULPIX is not expected to even approximately double the return of the S&P 500 over any period longer than one trading day because it is "reset" each day. I agree that these products are genera...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond ETF with the shortest Duration
Replies: 13
Views: 902

Re: Bond ETF with the shortest Duration

Every day half the people who trade are buyers and half are sellers. You don’t know anything they don’t. The hardest thing about investing is humility. Back to your question: I am no expert on non-US fixed income but I’ll take a stab to get the ball rolling for you. Consider currency risk. You ment...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Crypto Allocation
Replies: 37
Views: 2890

Re: High Crypto Allocation

My buddy has 25% of his total net worth allocated to crypto (15% of which is btc). Close to 5% of my net worth is allocated to crypto right now. He makes the argument to me that if I believe in its speculative capabilities enough to invest 5%, why not bump it up to 20%? I have a large allocation to...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 73
Views: 4766

Re: Invest in Tesla?

I love the idea of Tesla, and am kind of a fan, but no way would I own the stock. My sense is that the price implies a decade of success and significant margin growth, beyond a standard car company (and I'm borrowing from some folks I've read here, not doing the math myself.) In any case, it sounds...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 219
Views: 9849

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Even if real estate provides higher return, is that a free lunch? Is there any way to measure risk-adjusted return? (Excuse me for adding more firewood to the burning fire here.). A diversified housing REIT would be comparable to assets like a diversified index (equity) fund or bonds. Individual ho...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Titans of Junk: Behind the Debt Binge That Now Threatens Markets [Bloomberg article]
Replies: 14
Views: 2244

Re: Titans of Junk: Behind the Debt Binge That Now Threatens Markets [Bloomberg article]

I've been reading many articles recently like the OP's about record corporate debt levels and the danger this presents if the economy slows. Most of my fixed income is in laddered TIPs and CD's which, of course, have no exposure to this potential problem. However, one of my IRA accounts had a modes...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Real Estate Investment question
Replies: 6
Views: 679

Re: First Real Estate Investment question

That's not a good rental. Doesn't pass the 1% rule of thumb. Monthly rental = 1% of purchase price. 50% down doesn't take advantage of leverage. Any good duplexes where you can "house hack" and live in one side/rent out the other side, effectively reducing your housing cost to $0? BiggerPockets is ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Real Estate Investment question
Replies: 6
Views: 679

Re: First Real Estate Investment question

Hello, I'm 28, single with no kids, I've been renting and saving for a couple of years, and I have about 230k in cash. I live cheaply and keep expenses low. With interest rates rising I was thinking to buy some less expensive real estate, in a good area, with the hopes of turning it into a rental i...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Drums Of (Trade) War
Replies: 7
Views: 1332

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Drums Of (Trade) War

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-drums-trade-war?nopaging=1 Excellent Bogleheadish article. Larry uses the specific example of the current potential for a trade war to emphasize many more general important BH points: have a plan and stick to it, passive beats active, valuat...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy
Replies: 73
Views: 4629

Re: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy

What do you guys think about global inflation linked bond ETFs? (eg https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?distributionPolicy=distributionPolicy-accumulating&fsg=more100&assetClass=class-bonds®ion=World&groupField=index&from=search&isin=LU0290357929) Would it be useful for a European to inc...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing benefit? Or just pure luck?
Replies: 15
Views: 2072

Re: Market timing benefit? Or just pure luck?

Recently I'm bored and I played with numbers from Simba's backtesting spreadsheet, just for fun. I observed something which is puzzling to me: 1. If I invested $1 in US stocks in 1970, it will grow to $112.66 by the end of 2017. 2. If I invested $1 in ex-US stocks in 1970, it will grow to $59.39 by...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Valuation
Replies: 4
Views: 847

Re: Pension Valuation

Hi All, I had a pension evaluated and it would pay $980 a month in 25 years. The present value of the pension was $37K. Does that seem right? If somebody told me that I can give them $37K now and get $980 a month in 25 years for as long as I live, My gut tells me that I should jump on it. Does anyb...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flat real yield curve
Replies: 7
Views: 1226

Re: Flat real yield curve

I guess the market very much expects real rates to fall. My understanding is that real interest rates today are largely determined in a global market context, since capital markets are so highly integrated worldwide. At the same time, since exchange rates are still free to vary among major economie...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11245

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

"Leverage is bad" is not a reasonable conclusion from his story. From his thread, I did learn that having someone that can bail you out on the order of six figures makes things safer. ;-) His academic work had convinced MT that this was a good strategy. When reality collides with theory, reality is...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Going solar?
Replies: 73
Views: 5514

Re: Going solar?

I live in NM and I had a new house built in 2013 that is a "green" energy efficient house that was designed to have solar. It has an electric heat pump for heating. The only non-electric energy used in the house is the propane hot water heater. I am not sure how much the solar cost (maybe around $3...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in oil?
Replies: 13
Views: 896

Re: Investing in oil?

obviously I meant putting the money in an index fund/etf that follows the price of a barrel of oil Enormous discussion here if you search back through threads. Turns out the oil ETFs don't track the price of oil very well. That's a problem for all financial investors in a physical commodity. You ne...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Going solar?
Replies: 73
Views: 5514

Re: Going solar?

We spent a lot on everything, particularly green technologies. At the time no one could give us any real estimate of what we would save, we knew it wasn’t that economical but were interested in being a guinea pig for upscale use of green technologies, which were uncommon in our area at that time. W...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon won't sell this book to me.
Replies: 68
Views: 8346

Re: Amazon won't sell this book to me.

I have always felt that IF an individual had a better employment opportunity other than working for (insert name of your choice) then surely they would exercise their freedom to seek other employment. I agree in theory but see just the opposite in practice. Many people exhibit inertia and avoid cha...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11245

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Some other thoughts. 1) think in general you want to reduce your mortgage, your home property leverage over time. You start out at 5x leveraged as you say-ie 20% down payment or 20% equity. Arguably by the time you retire you should be 100% equity or 0x leveraged. 2) that does not necessarily mean ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11245

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

The book Successful investing is a process has a pretty good chapter on the effects of volatility drag on leveraged stock investments. https://www.amazon.com/Successful-Investing-Process-Structuring-Outperformance/dp/1118459903/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1531621273&sr=8-1&keywords=successful+investing+...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11245

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

They argue that margin is probably the cheapest way to accomplish it but in tax-advantaged accounts you could use an ETF like ProShares UltraPro S&P500 as part of a portfolio to achieve 1.5x or 2x leverage for extended periods of time. I strongly disagree with using ultra funds for leverage. You ar...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11245

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

A mortgage for a home is backed by the property itself. What is a margin loan backed by? I would think it isn’t the stock itself, but your financial accounts. So you can’t pay the loan for the house? You lose the house, but not your money (at least in a non-recourse state). A margin loan is called ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11245

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

I think using reasonable leverage in equity investing is good as a long-term strategy. Link was posted yesterday to an interesting video with Jack Bogle discussing this briefly: https://youtu.be/k6ra5POdsYg?t=623 Investing is to a large degree about managing risk. I agree. In Lifecycle Investing, I...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2419

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

That's interesting. To be honest I didn't know cash is a good inflation hedge? I always thought the opposite. I think the early 1980s Volker period when the Fed was trying to crush inflation may distort the numbers? Since cash pays the lowest return in the long run it should be a poor inflation hed...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 219
Views: 9849

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Real estate is unique in that it is one of the few businesses where you can use leverage to invest in a potentially appreciating asset. Wildbill, I've appreciated your posts & insight. Would you clarify the above statement? Seems to me that someone could use leverage to invest in stocks also. Howev...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MFs in India [Mutual Funds]
Replies: 18
Views: 1337

Re: MFs in India [Mutual Funds]

hi all, I am looking for advice on MF investing in India. I am new to investing and John Bogle's ideas. The last 3 months have been eye opening to say the least. I live in the US, and I like the index fund approach using vanguard funds. Is it possible to do this in India ? My dad, who is retired, n...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7409

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Are the Vanguard numbers per cent of total portfolio or just of equities? 30 per cent of 60 per cent equities would be 18 per cent of total portfolio. If the 40 per cent is in US bonds then overall currency risk would probably be bearable. Vanguard's advice is 20% to 40% of equities . As to currenc...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy
Replies: 73
Views: 4629

Re: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy

What do you guys think about global inflation linked bond ETFs? (eg https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?distributionPolicy=distributionPolicy-accumulating&fsg=more100&assetClass=class-bonds®ion=World&groupField=index&from=search&isin=LU0290357929) Would it be useful for a European to inc...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7409

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Someone will perhaps post the link to the Vanguard study. I can't do so from where I am right now. https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGEB.pdf Conclusion: In light of quantitative analysis and qualitative considerations, we have demonstrated that domestic investors should consider allocating part of th...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7409

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

So what do all of you recommend for AA for US/international? 80/20? In my brokerage, I’m only 11.7% international. I auto invest a good chunk of money each month, which I have set to 75% VTSAX 25% VTIAX. I’m thinking of maybe doing 50/50 for a while as international is supposed to be a better value...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8628

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

I quickly cobbled together a somewhat similar analysis for the UK, using inflation-adjusted annual returns. Very nice, siamond. What stands out to me is how severe the Oil and Inflation Shocks of the 1970s were for both UK and US stocks and bonds — and probably for all the other developed nations t...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8628

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Would it not be fair to say that 100% TIPS would be the optimal portfolio for capital preservation (in terms of real money); whereas, wouldn't a 50/50 portfolio also provide the possibility for capital growth (real growth) while still giving you the insurance you need against such extreme events? Y...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?
Replies: 27
Views: 2019

Re: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?

Seems a bit high, but if it's a high growth area the expectation for some might be in the price appreciation more than the rent. San Francisco saw something like a 12% increase in the first six months of 2018. At that rate, who cares about rent? ... Or even a job... just get into a house and a HELO...