Search found 36209 matches

by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a Tesla?
Replies: 67
Views: 2580

Re: Should I buy a Tesla?

....I don't like the Tesla valuation and capital structure which are wrong for the risks. The CEO is out of control and senior management turnover is frightening. .... Interesting read 12.13.18 - DR. ELON & MR. MUSK: LIFE INSIDE TESLA'S PRODUCTION HELL Thank you. Musk is a genius. PayPal Space X Te...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a Tesla?
Replies: 67
Views: 2580

Re: Should I buy a Tesla?

Does the bottom line ($40k) Tesla have all the Auto-drive features? From what I have read from Autonomous Vehicle blogs Musk's commentary on same is actually dangerous? Misrepresenting what the technology can do? This car is not safe in AV mode. Full driver attention is required. It will try to dri...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a Tesla?
Replies: 67
Views: 2580

Re: Should I buy a Tesla?

Musk stated last Sunday on 60 minutes that the company is billions (not millions) of dollars in debt (even with tax subsidies) and that if the model 3 does not sell well then the company will go bankrupt. Tax subsidies are no longer a given. Further, Musk's responses during the interview were less ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (U.K Investor) Would you recommend this index?
Replies: 12
Views: 533

Re: (U.K Investor) Would you recommend this index?

Hi Bogleheads. Just seeking a bit of clarity. After some thought I've decided I would like to halve my equities between a global small cap index and a global large cap index. (Also hold market weighted emerging) I invest through Vanguard UK and half is in their global small cap fund. The fund I am ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total US Bond Market for Europeans
Replies: 9
Views: 472

Re: Total US Bond Market for Europeans

I agree with Valuethinker for you the OP. You should use AGGH. Two questions for Valuethinker: 1. Should we (USD zone) also use the global bonds instead of the USD TBM? No. You have Usd liabilities so USD assets. Credit risk of TBM is low. 2. 15% of our port (25% of FI) is in USD TIPS. Should we gl...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hedging Question
Replies: 2
Views: 226

Re: Hedging Question

I apologise in advance if this is a silly question, I am a bit ashamed of asking it. I have always assumed that the purpose of hedging a bond fund is to ensure that the fund's performance is replicated in a different currency from the fund's base one. So that whatever performance was generated in t...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total US Bond Market for Europeans
Replies: 9
Views: 472

Re: Total US Bond Market for Europeans

2 From Ireland iShares: SUAG (USD distributing) or IUAE (hedged to Euros accumulating). Thanks :happy I have now narrowed it down to IUAE and AGGH PS The reason I don't want European bonds is that, as a southern European, I am concerned about the future of the EU. I already have a ton of "exposure"...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total US Bond Market for Europeans
Replies: 9
Views: 472

Re: Total US Bond Market for Europeans

2 From Ireland iShares: SUAG (USD distributing) or IUAE (hedged to Euros accumulating). Thanks :happy I have now narrowed it down to IUAE and AGGH PS The reason I don't want European bonds is that, as a southern European, I am concerned about the future of the EU. I already have a ton of "exposure"...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (U.K Investor) Would you recommend this index?
Replies: 12
Views: 533

Re: (U.K Investor) Would you recommend this index?

Hi Bogleheads. Just seeking a bit of clarity. After some thought I've decided I would like to halve my equities between a global small cap index and a global large cap index. (Also hold market weighted emerging) I invest through Vanguard UK and half is in their global small cap fund. The fund I am ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Law school without practicing law
Replies: 51
Views: 2673

Re: Law school without practicing law

Honestly, law school doesn’t teach you anything you can’t learn on your own. If you have no intention of practicing or using your JD, why go through the expense and work? OP stated the reason up front, which seems quite valid to me: I fully understand no one can prevent being sued, including lawyer...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 15, 2018 4:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (U.K Investor) Would you recommend this index?
Replies: 12
Views: 533

Re: (U.K Investor) Would you recommend this index?

Hi Bogleheads. Just seeking a bit of clarity. After some thought I've decided I would like to halve my equities between a global small cap index and a global large cap index. (Also hold market weighted emerging) I invest through Vanguard UK and half is in their global small cap fund. The fund I am ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 15, 2018 3:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Curious on how total market funds are constructed
Replies: 7
Views: 531

Re: Curious on how total market funds are constructed

Note that for funds investing in countries like China where a large proportion shares of major companies are not available to the public, the weighting is not by market cap but by market "float". That's one of the sometimes unstated advantages of cap-weighted index funds. They don't have to trade j...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?
Replies: 39
Views: 2229

Re: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?

A much larger percentage of the US population is aware of how average people felt, how we all think, and what happens during a recession due to forums. Before 08, it was essentially what you read in a book, or saw on TV from a professional. That is more hard to sympathize with and trust than forums...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 58
Views: 3560

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

First we need to strip out currency. To a modest extent, stronger USD probably lowers the profits of US companies (because they earn so much money abroad). But it definitely raises the relative performance of the US index. From the historical data I've seen the ratio of the Euro to the USD now is s...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?
Replies: 39
Views: 2229

Re: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?

Not an economist or a psychologist, but I think the severity of the 08 recession was due to the cause: a near meltdown of global financial institutions. There is a complex interaction. The MBS/ CDO boom had allowed the US housing sector to grow disproportionately relative to the economy as a whole....
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Potential New Home - Planes and Trains Noise
Replies: 31
Views: 1966

Re: Potential New Home - Planes and Trains Noise

I used to live within a block of a train crossing. You get used to it after a few months. We would have visitors who would say: “How do you stand that noise?” I would hear it all evening because they called it to my attention. Next day I wouldn’t notice it. I have fond memories of living near the t...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 20 Year Guaranteed Term Non Smoker Life Insurance
Replies: 14
Views: 639

Re: 20 Year Guaranteed Term Non Smoker Life Insurance

My father has an existing 20 Year Guaranteed Term Non Smoker life insurance policy from Brighthouse financial/life insurance. The policy is for $250,000 and he is asking me if he should keep paying it. I have no clue about these instruments... He is 70 years old and the policy cost is almost $6,000...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession Coming
Replies: 49
Views: 5984

Re: Recession Coming

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-cfos-see-a-u-s-recession-coming-by-2020/ We all claim nobody knows nothing about the markets but when you get stories like the one above, people start to believe it and it becomes as self fulfilling prophecy. Exactly! I for one am of the (strong) opinion that there...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell off company stock and reinvest in ETFs?
Replies: 9
Views: 680

Re: Sell off company stock and reinvest in ETFs?

Sell. Your only real consideration is whether to split this over 2 tax years - your window for this year is fast closing? You cannot time the volatility of the S&P 500. FWIW though markets often rally in January (or even late December) as the market shrugs off its fears. But you can't time the vola...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Germany] New to the site - something I've been looking for long time. How to proceed?
Replies: 10
Views: 820

Re: [Germany] New to the site - something I've been looking for long time. How to proceed?

Hi, I am 26 year old frugal male who just entered workforce. I work as software developer in Germany and unfortunatelly I cannot amass fortune as fast as I would be capable in US. I have zero debt, no kids and I'm not married. On average I manage to save 1.2-1.5k euro monthly (after paying rent) an...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 58
Views: 3560

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

First we need to strip out currency. To a modest extent, stronger USD probably lowers the profits of US companies (because they earn so much money abroad). But it definitely raises the relative performance of the US index. From the historical data I've seen the ratio of the Euro to the USD now is s...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession Coming
Replies: 49
Views: 5984

Re: Recession Coming

Recessions are pretty inevitable and one can thing of them as a pruning process, putting out of business the weakest of firms that don't efficiently produce economic output. We used to talk about inventory recessions, in other words so much stuff would be produced that more was out there than what ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 187
Views: 13914

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

EDIT: Having read post-mortem (and revival!) accounts from Geithner and Bernanke, I will readily acknowledge that I clearly underestimated the risks of global meltdown by then. We collectively owe a lot to those two fellows' expertise and decisive action imho. Brown & Alistair Darling - Prime Minis...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 90
Views: 3726

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

Beware though the future prospects of a strategy that is now well documented in the literature. I think Larry Swedroe has written on it (Larry has become very pro for Momentum, which is an investing strategy which really scares me - thinking January 2009 in particular). I’m not sure I am following ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there value in these books?
Replies: 22
Views: 1438

Re: Is there value in these books?

It sounds like I better start with introductory books. Can you recommend some audio books (like Audible) that would contain a summary/overview of the concepts of the authors I mention? These are available at audible: Naked Money Naked Economics Economics in One Lesson Basic Economics, Fifth Edition...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there value in these books?
Replies: 22
Views: 1438

Re: Is there value in these books?

Absolutely read these authors. Keep in mind, going through some of their works is a massive undertaking, especially each one's magnus opus. Mises and Rothbard are my preference. Rothbard is easier to read but is more radicalized (not necessarily in a bad way) than Mises. However, I believe Mises an...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there value in these books?
Replies: 22
Views: 1438

Re: Is there value in these books?

"If I had but world enough and time" Unfortunately this is not a History of Economic Thought course. You know where we spent 10 hours a week reading the great minds and then discuss them in seminar. Fair enough. It's interesting how the lack of stated goals by OP leads each of us to project differe...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell off company stock and reinvest in ETFs?
Replies: 9
Views: 680

Re: Sell off company stock and reinvest in ETFs?

Hi, I seek your guidance. If my company has given me a handful number of stocks, is it a better practice to sell off this individual stock and reinvest in e.g. VOO/VUSD than sitting on the stock? Given it is better risk spreading to go with S&P500 ETFs, what's the best approach to do this, should I...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 58
Views: 3560

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

International stocks have returns of 2.3% per year over the last 5 years and have been down up to 20% YTD and you're worried things are overvalued? At what point would you feel they're okay to invest in? If they have had 2% returns for 1 decade, 2? If they drop 50% in the previous year? It's about ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total return uk index (i.e. including dividends reinvested)
Replies: 2
Views: 158

Re: Total return uk index (i.e. including dividends reinvested)

Dimson Marsh and Staunton publish an annual update under the auspices of Credit Suisse, every year. The full report is no longer available for free, but they do post a summary plus a summary presentation each year if you google it. That's the most commonly used source for returns for international m...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?
Replies: 39
Views: 2229

Re: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?

Every year a new generation that didn't experience the crash enters the market place, and an older one leaves. Sure, the stories remain, but for some of the new investors we might as well be talking about the 1930's, as 10 years is a third or more of their life. The next recession will be what it i...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does negative interest rate work?
Replies: 12
Views: 1539

Re: How does negative interest rate work?

This is a pithy, often repeated, quote but wrong. People can't just hide money under their mattress. There are some other options. Pre-paid bills are a good example. Prepay your taxes, stock up on stamps, buy stored value and gift cards. While not prefect, the average person can "save" thousands to...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 90
Views: 3726

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

I have been watching this fund for a while and started adding it to my portfolio since last year. It has been doing very well since inception. Now I'm seriously considering using this fund as my core equity holding instead of US/foreign (currently 64/36). I have read many discussions about this fun...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 90
Views: 3726

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

From memory low beta (low vol) runs way worse than that. You are misremembering. I was not misremembering -34.1% on the worst drawdown and over 20 years to recover peak. https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/686-ignored-risks-of-factor-investing.html Also, VMVFX is buying l...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Agriculture Tax -- Using 401k's and Futures Contracts
Replies: 4
Views: 396

Re: Agriculture Tax -- Using 401k's and Futures Contracts

Hello All, I have this idea that is somewhat complex... In agriculture, farmers have the ability to gift grain to children and utilize a zero cost basis for the gift. Since the grain has not yet been marketed and a buyer has not been found there is no basis established at this point. If the child i...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?
Replies: 39
Views: 2229

Re: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?

As far as I know, a big driver of recessions is fear. Fear and uncertainty will turn a mediocre/standard recession into a larger recession. 2008 seems a lot more recent than it was, I think it's still fresh in everyone minds, and we recovered as a country onto better times. A part of me thinks seei...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does negative interest rate work?
Replies: 12
Views: 1539

Re: How does negative interest rate work?

In Europe and Japan short term interest rates are very negative. For example Germany 2, 5 and 10 years bond yields are -0.558%, -0.252% and 0.282%. Euribor 1 month rate is -0.368%. I wonder how the negative interest really works. I know it encourages lending as you pay less back. But for savers/inv...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 187
Views: 13914

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I was just graduating college. The professors told us "there's nothing out there for you-- go to grad school and continue your education while this sorts itself out". Probably the worst time to be a 21 year old college kid strapped with student loan debt in the history of this country. [OT comment ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 187
Views: 13914

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I was in grad school in my early 30's with about $300K invested, mostly the result of a legal settlement involving a family member. I was focused on my studies and not really following the market. I saw the consumption habits of the society around me and figured that the economy as a lot bigger tha...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 187
Views: 13914

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I think a lot of people have forgotten how scary it was in late 2008-mid 2009, if they were paying attention to what was going on... And even then, I felt like the actual T-Bills were safer than a Treasury Money Market Fund. They were. You may recall that several money market funds nearly failed in...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Junk Bond fund
Replies: 78
Views: 8031

Re: Vanguard Junk Bond fund

I think the case for holding sovereign EM bonds is stronger than US HY bonds. It's fairly obvious that US junk behaves like half-US-equity, half-US-bond. With sovereign EM bonds you are taking on much more idiosyncratic risks that have a better chance of being uncorrelated with the stock market. Of...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there value in these books?
Replies: 22
Views: 1438

Re: Is there value in these books?

I would recommend that you also read " The Worldly Philosophers " by Robert Heilbroner *first*. Which puts the history of economic thought in its context (and definitely comes from a more "Liberal" view of the world). I'd advise OP to do the exact opposite, to read things in their proper order: old...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there value in these books?
Replies: 22
Views: 1438

Re: Is there value in these books?

Hi, Can anyone familiar with the following works, comment on if it's worthwhile to read them: 1. Ludwig von Mises 2. F.A. Hayek 3. Adam Smith 4. Milton Friedman Please note, I'm not asking to discuss the content of the books. Just whether people think they are relevant or valuable these days? Thank...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 90
Views: 3726

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

I have been watching this fund for a while and started adding it to my portfolio since last year. It has been doing very well since inception. Now I'm seriously considering using this fund as my core equity holding instead of US/foreign (currently 64/36). I have read many discussions about this fun...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 187
Views: 13914

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

e these same millenials with huge outstanding education debt that is akin to the debt with the mortgages. When will that come due? Will it be a similiar event? Given the way the US structures student loan debt, probably not. As I understand it, there's no bankruptcy on student loan debt. If the stu...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 187
Views: 13914

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

It took me a while to recover from all that (and I did recover and am doing well now). Luckily I didn't touch the one bit of money my ex couldn't touch: my retirement investments. I let them ride out the crisis. Not because I was smart of anything like that. I just didn't have time to think about i...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 187
Views: 13914

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

We were all lucky the recovery was large and swift. A longer recovery and/or deeper drop could have been horrific in many ways we can only imagine not only on a personal level but our economy, politics ...future. This is a very important point. The market recovery was swift the economic recovery wa...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 187
Views: 13914

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

Couldn't agree more. It was really scary, for those who understood what really was going on with the core of the western financial systems. Forget the stock market meltdown, people tend to look at stock market as a measure of how scary it was, which is not at all something I was worrying about. I w...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 187
Views: 13914

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I remember 2008 and 2009 very well. I turned 29 years old and had my second child while it was all going on. We were 100% invested in stocks but our portfolio was just approaching 6 figures when it all started so the amount of money we lost wasn't significant in the gross amount compared to our inc...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing a gas furnace and electric AC: when and how much?
Replies: 25
Views: 1375

Re: Replacing a gas furnice and electric AC: when and how much?

Yesterday I had my gas furnace serviced. Nothing was wrong with it, just the yearly checkup. The technician said it had a bad capacitor on the motor and I replaced it. It only cost $80 (part and labor). That is the only repair I've needed to make in 8 years. Then he told me my furnace was 16 years ...