Search found 36519 matches

by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forward P/E ratios and subsequent 10-year returns
Replies: 1
Views: 45

Re: Forward P/E ratios and subsequent 10-year returns

Eyeballing the graph, the current forward P/E ratio is predicting a 10-year annualized return of about 9%. Is that what you see? Is there publicly available data on forward P/E ratios? I do hope that the graph is not mixing P/E ratios computed from forward and reported earnings, since earnings esti...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 72
Views: 3823

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

You'll have to store it at home! For most on this board that might mean 10's or 100's of thousands of dollars of gold at home. You'll have to buy a very good and very secret safe. You'll have to do this and tell no one because if even a rumour gets out that the old cranky dude at the end of the blo...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 31
Views: 2613

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

This is a very interesting paper. If rent is all you can expect to get in real terms even in a place like NYC, that should give investors pause. I see price/rent ratios in downtown Seattle is significantly higher than the more outlying areas, meaning the market is expecting more price appreciation ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 31
Views: 2613

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

The Vanguard U.S. REIT (VGSIX) returned -6.11% in 2018. My personal real estate portfolio had a 18% IRR with six figure profits in 2018. So, where did diversification get you? :sharebeer Have you calculated the IIR if you had deadbeat tenant(s) requiring 1000s of dollars in legal fees and several m...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency
Replies: 10
Views: 974

Re: Cryptocurrency

Why do people still invest in crypto currencies? Is there still potential in this field? When bitcoin soared to $20k there was a flurry of posts here. Go and read those threads and compare them to what the actual outcome was. You will find, I think, that there is a basis for the scepticism here. It...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Super Short Term Bond Risks
Replies: 16
Views: 1371

Re: Super Short Term Bond Risks

I am not sure what Asset-Backed bonds really are and their risk profile? Asset backed bonds are pooled instruments of other smaller loans. Car loans, HELOC, credit card debit, trailer homes, etc. The are like Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), but not. They tend to be safe. Rarely does something lik...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?
Replies: 55
Views: 3562

Re: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?

For anyone who succumbs to what the OP is talking about, go see your doctor. No, I'm serious. If you have behaviour that you cannot control that is detrimental to yourself, you should see your doctor. They can then refer you to a counsellor who is professionally trained and can give you exercises a...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gas station prices and quality
Replies: 53
Views: 5651

Re: Gas station prices and quality

Not gouging at all. Prices went up due to the rise in oil. Expect prices to rise further as we near spring and peak driving season. Happens every year. The multiplicity of gasoline formulations attached to summer driving rules apparently also has something to do with it - the USA is anything but on...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 72
Views: 3823

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

I've been fooling trying to come up with an optimal asset allocation --back testing various portfolios through many different periods. I've noticed my results are almost always improved when I include Gold in my asset allocation at around 5%. By improved I mean less volatility, with almost equivale...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 72
Views: 3823

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

lassevirensghost wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:29 am
I prefer vibranium and adamantium,
Wakanda Forever?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzMzFGgmQOc (T'Challa goes on Jeopardy)
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: James Lee Burke - Nelson Demille
Replies: 6
Views: 532

Re: James Lee Burke - Nelson Demille

A key feature of James Lee Burke is that he writes a series - Detective Robicheaux. If you friend likes series, he may not like free-standing novels. For authors who do both, I read only the series. I like Burke, and also like Michael Connelly, John Lescroart, John Sanford, Robert Parker, Robert Cr...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%
Replies: 31
Views: 4158

Re: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%

I'd be curious if any of these family office strategies beat a simple 60% VTSAX, 40% VBMFX portfolio. I've seen some of the college endowments fail miserably against these many years. I very much doubt it. They would have a hard time justifying their fees with such an allocation. I doubt it as well...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%
Replies: 31
Views: 4158

Re: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%

I'd be curious if any of these family office strategies beat a simple 60% VTSAX, 40% VBMFX portfolio. I've seen some of the college endowments fail miserably against these many years. Here's Yale Endowment Asset Allocation: http://i67.tinypic.com/rsc32w.png Cheers :greedy The percentage in VC funds...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%
Replies: 31
Views: 4158

Re: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%

Private equity is very different from real estate. PE is the private ownership of operating companies around the world. Four years ago I decided to expand my asset allocation to include up to 10% of alternative investments. For me this will include private equity, some VC and perhaps some commercia...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Group holds about $415 million of municipal bonds issued on behalf of PG&E Corp.
Replies: 9
Views: 1979

Re: Vanguard Group holds about $415 million of municipal bonds issued on behalf of PG&E Corp.

I read the article. Perhaps investors should be worried more about the banks that back these bonds. To wit: . . . [A]ll but $2 million of the bonds held by Vanguard are backed by banks that act as buyers of last resort for the securities, insulating the money manager from risk. And later: Such bond...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 72
Views: 3823

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

Any thoughts of real estate in your portfolio instead? In the zombie apocalypse at least you can live on the land. Bernstein suggests *foreign* real estate is the best disaster defense. He observes rich residents of developing countries love to buy real estate in cities like London. It's a great th...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 31
Views: 2613

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

There are better sources out there—maybe the Bernstein book—but my recollection is that historical real estate prices tend to track inflation (or slightly better). See e.g. the following that cites Schiller: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2013/03/real-estate-investment-performance/ Real estate st...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past S&P earnings
Replies: 1
Views: 259

Re: Past S&P earnings

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table https://www.macrotrends.net/1324/s-p-500-earnings-history The first link says that S&P earnings in 1950 were 28.63 but the second link says that S&P earnings in 1950 were 2.84. Are there two different ways of calculating earnings? What’s causing such a h...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 31
Views: 2613

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

I skimmed the paper. This is a good case-study paper, but it is a poor paper from which to draw any conclusions. 82 repeat sales samples. I repeat: 82 repeat sales samples. To evaluate house price index over 100 years. This is laughable at best. I mean, if they had, say, 82,000 sales samples, I *mi...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping up with inflation?
Replies: 15
Views: 1741

Re: Keeping up with inflation?

"Without working in the effects of inflation historic gas prices are hard to interpret." That's true, but way back when (when gas was 18 cents a gallon the year I was born and between 19 and 30 cents when I started driving at 15) they came out and pumped it for you, checked your oil and washed your...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 126
Views: 7012

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

...Given that, why would Venezuela be "kicked out" of an index? Shouldn't we rather let "the market" decide whether and how much to invest in Venezuelan companies? Anything else is not a pure market-driven metric... Being "purely market-driven" only makes sense if there is a market . What matters h...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping up with inflation?
Replies: 15
Views: 1741

Re: Keeping up with inflation?

When I was born, gas was $0.25 per gallon. Had lots of lead in it too. I once paid $0.139 per gallon. I was 21 at the time, and there was a "gas war". Not a foreign operation involving the military, but a price competition between a few stations all in the same small area. I didn't pay for gas when...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips for online photography course?
Replies: 27
Views: 1066

Re: Tips for online photography course?

I have had a Nikon DSLR since 2014. Have read the manual periodically. I have watched youtube videos about certain settings such as aperture priority/shutter priority. But still shoot with the auto function 90+% of the time. Someone mentioned taking online photography course and one that I googled ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping up with inflation?
Replies: 15
Views: 1741

Re: Keeping up with inflation?

Everything I read says you've got to invest in stocks to 'keep up with inflation'. But doesn't it all come down to what you spend money on? Gas is dependant on oil prices, and right now gas where I live in NJ is just over $2 a gallon. Same thing with food.. buy the store brands and what's on sale, ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preferreds, hybrids, convertible preferred??
Replies: 4
Views: 395

Re: Preferreds, hybrids, convertible preferred??

Don't forget Rick Ferri does recommend holding up to 20% of a perferred stock fund/etf in his Core 4 income portfolio. That boils down to whether one thinks credit risk is orthogonal as a factor to equity risk ie separable within a portfolio. If it is, then a High Yield bond fund would give better ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?
Replies: 55
Views: 3562

Re: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?

I have 20 years experience of investing. In 2000, I can't avoid temptation to buy hot IT stocks. And I learned that buying hot stocks always leads to a disaster. But history repeats itself. Many speuators(not investors) lose money by buying hot bitcoin. How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lazy Portfolio vs CFP
Replies: 4
Views: 521

Re: Lazy Portfolio vs CFP

If a 25 year old won $200,000 in the lottery, what are the advantages of placing that money in a lazy or three fund portfolio vs having an independent fee only certified financial planner manage the money for 1% per year, using an 80% equities/20% fixed income low cost ETF and low transactions to m...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 126
Views: 7012

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

It's not possible to overstate earnings year after year after year without creating a massive gap between book value and true value over the course of many years. Oh yes it is. Microsoft has a book value of $9 per share. The stock market values Microsoft at $102 a share. Is market value the true va...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 126
Views: 7012

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

It's not possible to overstate earnings year after year after year without creating a massive gap between book value and true value over the course of many years. Oh yes it is. Microsoft has a book value of $9 per share. The stock market values Microsoft at $102 a share. Is market value the true va...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do REITs do in a recession?
Replies: 3
Views: 560

Re: How do REITs do in a recession?

BaylorBears wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:23 am
I’m thinking NRZ or something similar to begin doing some DCA tin a REIT
Run the charts.

In 2000-03 they did very well.

In 2008-09 they did worse than the stock market as a whole.
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you ever "win" big?
Replies: 133
Views: 9482

Re: Did you ever "win" big?

Attributing everything in life "fate" or "luck", is not only intellectually dishonest, its pure laziness. You have to know what you have agency over. If stock returns and asset selection were in any way predictable, we'd be surrounded by superior fund managers. In practice we are not - the average ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you ever "win" big?
Replies: 133
Views: 9482

Re: Did you ever "win" big?

But I also know the drug like fix he gets from his trading means more to him than any vacation, any new car, or just about anything else I could envision him spending money on. He loves the casino, he will die with a hopeful bet active in his account. I think we underestimate how strong the gamblin...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 15 full days in Costa Rica
Replies: 25
Views: 1810

Re: 15 full days in Costa Rica

If you have not bought your tickets it might make sense to fly into San Jose and return from Liberia or vise versa. I had a great time there but be sure to read what scams are common there, like the flat tire scam, and how to avoid them. Even if you go with a brand name rental car company be extra ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 15 full days in Costa Rica
Replies: 25
Views: 1810

Re: 15 full days in Costa Rica

Planning on a trip to Costa Rica. We will start and end in San Jose. Thinking about 4 days each in La Fortuna, Monterverde and Manuel Antonio or Tortuguero plus driving time in between. Also cant decide between Tortuguero and Manuel Antonio. Probably will not have time for both. Suggestions please....
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you ever "win" big?
Replies: 133
Views: 9482

Re: Did you ever "win" big?

I would urge anyone reading this thread to consider a few things I have observed about men, specifically, in their conversation with other men (I cannot really speak to the female gender case). Men pretty much always lie or exaggerate about certain things. My benchmark for this is my close friends,...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone have entire 401K in bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3270

Re: Does anyone have entire 401K in bonds?

4. I noticed that bonds usually are in the 2-3% return range each year but a few years they had super high returns like over 7% in 2011...was there a specific reason? It was a year in which interest rates fell. Roughly speaking, the return on the bond fund would equal the yield of the bonds in the ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you ever "win" big?
Replies: 133
Views: 9482

Re: Did you ever "win" big?

Ask for your cancer example. We know that cancer is a heterogeneous group of diseases with many complex interactions, most of which are still not understood. However, you fail to understand one important concept. For example, I know that eating certain processed foods, heated up starches that form ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you ever "win" big?
Replies: 133
Views: 9482

Re: Did you ever "win" big?

No, there is no "little" amount of luck. Life is enmeshed in luck, both good and bad. I couldn't agree more with the entirety of your last paragraph. No you can't know "everything" but you can know the right things. The cavalcade of daily short-term junk that passes for "information" in the fields ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you ever "win" big?
Replies: 133
Views: 9482

Re: Did you ever "win" big?

I would urge anyone reading this thread to consider a few things I have observed about men, specifically, in their conversation with other men (I cannot really speak to the female gender case). Men pretty much always lie or exaggerate about certain things. My benchmark for this is my close friends, ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preferreds, hybrids, convertible preferred??
Replies: 4
Views: 395

Re: Preferreds, hybrids, convertible preferred??

Mom (93) managed her own investments successfully for many years after Dad died. She invested a substantial portion of her assets in individual preferred stocks. I'm aware that many experts and Bogleheads do not recommend these, but she was convinced that they served her well, and her portfolio has...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 126
Views: 7012

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

4) But don't kid yourself by pretending that there is some sound, rational basis. Say to yourself "I have decided not to do it because Just... Don't... Want to" and leave it at that. Admit your irrationality, accept it, embrace it. It doesn't matter whether it is hunch, intuition, or unconscious de...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 126
Views: 7012

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

If you suspect the financial statement numbers, you can also look at dividend yields(cold hard cash) as a gauge of value or cheapness. Here are some large EM countries... Russia - 6.3% China - 4.7% Taiwan - 4.7% South Africa - 4.4% Turkey - 4.2% For comparison the US is at 2.1% This is the key alth...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 126
Views: 7012

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

Can someone point to an assessment of home country bias within the BRICs and other EM countries? No but most of those countries have some form of exchange controls and/or other cost and tax restrictions on foreign investing. Much like our own countries in the 1950s & 60s. These countries are nascen...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you ever "win" big?
Replies: 133
Views: 9482

Re: Did you ever "win" big?

That lottery comparison is brought up so often on here like it's going out of style. The odds of winning the lottery is one in hundreds of millions. And you have no control over the outcome. The odds of having a big win like a very successful business or investment that makes you very rich is much ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you ever "win" big?
Replies: 133
Views: 9482

Re: Did you ever "win" big?

I met my wife Your wife was a stock pick? I heard an NPR financial discussion years ago where they suggested that your choice of partner (and whether you stick with him/her) might be one of the biggest indicators of your future financial success. 😉 We might start calling it the "Bezos tax" given th...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you ever "win" big?
Replies: 133
Views: 9482

Re: Did you ever "win" big?

My son was born in early 2009 -2 months premature and was in serious condition. As you can imagine, it was a tough time for parents. His grandparents gave us a nice chunk of money to start a 529 plan. With all of the stress and anxiety, I didn't get around to doing it right away but I finally opene...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 3532

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

While I've tried to muster enthusiasm for a broadly diversified fixed income portfolio, I find myself leaning against taking much of any risk at all on the fixed income side. Part of my thinking is simply the irritation/frustration of losing any money at all in the portion of my portfolio that is d...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS/Pension/etc as bond allocation?
Replies: 25
Views: 1619

Re: SS/Pension/etc as bond allocation?

Last thing. Currency may matter. If your pension is in AUD say that might tilt you other assets allocated away from AUD. The real clincher is is that pension inflation indexed. If it is it should mostly compensate you for falls in AUD over the long run. As you know from other threads I am a bear on ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS/Pension/etc as bond allocation?
Replies: 25
Views: 1619

Re: SS/Pension/etc as bond allocation?

Andrew again to interpret. If you have 250k equivalent from a pension and you want to be 75 per cent in equities then you put 750k into equities. I think that is what you mean? Note there is no rebalancing there. You can add bonds as you continue to accumulate. I would suggest that even in that posi...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?
Replies: 74
Views: 6646

Re: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?

Well, the Vanguard total international fund only invests in 50ish countries out of 195ish. What happened to the other 145 or so? To get “the rest of the story,” as Paul Harvey would say, you then have to invest in primary emerging markets, secondary emerging markets, and frontier markets, cause we’...