Search found 34138 matches

by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Approach to diversity out of a single stock (purchased through ESPP)
Replies: 38
Views: 1902

Re: Approach to diversity out of a single stock (purchased through ESPP)

Make sure you understand your own plan and what you're doing before you make big moves. My quote of "big order" was metaphoric, I meant I will start the process. As it was my "first" limit order did not hit the price today. What I meant was I will start unloading my position - definitely the major ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]
Replies: 21
Views: 1018

Re: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]

gs if you had hedged your CAD exposure back into U.S. dollars?) UK is interesting. Of the FTSE 100, c. 45% is 10 companies, and they all have big USD exposure-- Diageo, BAT, GSK, BHP etc. Thus when GBP fell 10% against EUR and USD in a couple of hours (night of 23rd June 2016) the knee jerk reactio...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]
Replies: 21
Views: 1018

Re: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]

Valuethinker, I've lost track of what I think you are arguing. This started as a discussion about a Canadian investor and currency hedging on US equity exposure-- and I said, why bother? But then you were citing that US investors should not accept CAD currency risk? To spare us further pain , I cit...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 46
Views: 4794

Re: Unprecedented Event

We are very lucky living in the US. We do not have a dictatorship which usually loses in wars, like in Nazi Germany. In Germany after 1945 all savings accounts were reduced to 10%, and the country and economy destroyed. This will never happen here. You are living in a dream land if you think "it ca...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 64
Views: 3395

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

So far my strategy would be as follows I typically invest in 1 Stocks 2 Long term goverment bonds (to balance stocks for high volatility) That's not quite right. They are both volatile-- more volatile than bond index funds (or cash). They may, or may not, both be volatile in the same direction. A r...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]
Replies: 21
Views: 1018

Re: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]

Valuethinker, Hard to think of a productivity shock that would hit one country and not the other, in the long run*. Did you not have a look at longinvest's CADUSD chart? The U.S. dollar got a lot stronger over the past four years. That's a fact. In this case, PPP failed spectacularly, over a four-y...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK resident: VPL or VAPX/VJPN?
Replies: 4
Views: 125

Re: UK resident: VPL or VAPX/VJPN?

I'm trying to decide between VPL (US based) or a combination of VAPX/VJPN (IE domiciled). I am UK based and soon will be deemed UK domiciled for IHT purposes so the US estate tax issue doesn't really concern me as much as actual fees and taxes incurred now. Assume taxable account via IB (so very ch...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with highly skewed+multiple Portfolio management
Replies: 4
Views: 239

Re: Need help with highly skewed+multiple Portfolio management

Hi, I've entered into manual investing a few years ago with some self-education mainly using "The Bogleheads Guide to investing". I am recently married and my wife hasn't really invested anything so far. Before I start putting her income into existing investments, I need help in figuring out how to...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to the Dow Jones between 1966-1982?
Replies: 70
Views: 3524

Re: What happened to the Dow Jones between 1966-1982?

There is risk in the market, the flipside of return. This is why you should choose a reasonable asset allocation that allows you to remain invested. Seems like rental property, in a college town, may be a better bet? Renters pay the mortgage, plus some, and the home value doubles in ten years (pret...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 28
Views: 3248

Re: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel

It was worth buying the fifth edition just to read: In the first four editions of Stocks for the Long Run , I noted that the last 30-year period when the return on long-term bonds beat stocks ended in 1861, at the onset of the Civil War. That is no longer true. Because of the large drop in governme...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 64
Views: 3395

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

I'm also struggling with the fixed income part of my portfolio as an European investor. Initially I was thinking as a good alternative this global Aggregate Bond hedged in EUROS , Shares Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETFETF (AGGH) https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/291770/ instated of ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to the Dow Jones between 1966-1982?
Replies: 70
Views: 3524

Re: What happened to the Dow Jones between 1966-1982?

Seems like rental property, in a college town, may be a better bet? Renters pay the mortgage, plus some, and the home value doubles in ten years (pretty reliably). "Reliably"? You didn't ask about cases where the value of rental properties crashed. Or where rental markets dried up. Happens all the ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to the Dow Jones between 1966-1982?
Replies: 70
Views: 3524

Re: What happened to the Dow Jones between 1966-1982?

The idea that the Dow took 29 years from 1966 to break even seems to get its origin in charts like this: http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart That link has a chart that automatically has an inflation-adjusted price-only chart for the Dow. No dividends are included, wh...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 69
Views: 5246

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

Yep, I'm betting and speculating. Everyone who invests in equity is doing that in a sense, no matter how it's arranged. Market cap weighting is great for efficiency within a given fund, but I've not seen a compelling case it is inherently superior as a portfolio constraint compared to other portfol...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is my computer obsolete?
Replies: 59
Views: 3458

Re: Is my computer obsolete?

I also don't even notice the auto-updates - they happen in the background and install when shut the machine down at night (if your work computer is managed by an IT department perhaps they are doing some additional work that is impacting it). We have no IT department. Us software developers handle ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to the Dow Jones between 1966-1982?
Replies: 70
Views: 3524

Re: What happened to the Dow Jones between 1966-1982?

I was just finalizing what to do with my extra 50k when my wife asked me what's the longest we'd have to wait to get our initial investment back. I didn't know the answer and just looked it up. If you put 50k in the stock market in 1966 it continued to drop until 1982 (16 years). It would have been...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone had luck getting condo to install solar panels?
Replies: 6
Views: 531

Re: Anyone had luck getting condo to install solar panels?

I live in a 40 unit townhouse condo complex. Every unit shares walls/roof with neighbours. How feasible is it to install solar panels on everyone's roof? I am hoping to get some good feedback from folks here that I can take to the condo board. We're near NYC and have very high utility bills. Our bi...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 64
Views: 3395

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

FDIC market would be for me. Bonds would be for a big institutional investor Leverage or not, I thought with carry trade the big risk is currency appreciation. That's why I'm suggesting currency futures to hedge this risk. But would the price of the futures make it so expensive that the final benef...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Approach to diversity out of a single stock (purchased through ESPP)
Replies: 38
Views: 1902

Re: Approach to diversity out of a single stock (purchased through ESPP)

Hi All, I would like some advise of getting out a large single stock dominating my investment - it is the stock of the company I worked for and am working for even now. Over the last 10 years I have accumulated roughly 150K in current stock value (it is a huge chunk of my saving). I already know no...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 25, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]
Replies: 21
Views: 1018

Re: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]

If there are 2 currencies who should converge to a Purchasing Power Parity basis, it is USD and CAD. Can you provide any evidence please? Real exchange rates can vary a lot. What you are saying makes sense, but there are a number of variables affecting real exchange rates, such as the ratio of trad...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 25, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 64
Views: 3395

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

Would FDIC apply for a non-resident investing in their CDs? You would expect them to offer 0% on CDs given risk free rates in the Eurozone are currently less than 0%. Getting any positive return on Eurozone fixed income investments is a trick, and one must stay within Eurozone deposit insurance lim...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 25, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]
Replies: 21
Views: 1018

Re: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]

If there are 2 currencies who should converge to a Purchasing Power Parity basis, it is USD and CAD. Can you provide any evidence please? Real exchange rates can vary a lot. What you are saying makes sense, but there are a number of variables affecting real exchange rates, such as the ratio of trad...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 25, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What happens when you speak in TICKER language.
Replies: 136
Views: 11368

Re: A Rant about Ticker Speak

I love the thought of talking about

IWVL and EEMV

That should hoist a nice flag on the American-o-centrism of these boards.

Two nations divided by a common language.
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 64
Views: 3395

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

Bank savings accounts and CDs are not a problem. I can open one in an European bank. Perhaps Everbank is more convinient, but right now they are just offering APR 0.0% for all Euro CDs. Would FDIC apply for a non-resident investing in their CDs? You would expect them to offer 0% on CDs given risk f...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vested in pension... leave it in or take it out?
Replies: 10
Views: 910

Re: Vested in pension... leave it in or take it out?

I'm a retired government executive, and when I was working, I saw a lot of folks return to government service after having left. That meant that they had to return the retirement funds they had taken out when they left. That was often a major stumbling block. If there is any chance whatsoever that ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 25, 2018 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 46
Views: 4794

Re: Unprecedented Event

Do you believe the U.S. stock market could experience an unprecedented event? For instance, Wm Berstein's Deep Risks. The four main causes of deep risk according to Bernstein are hyperinflation, prolonged deflation, devastation (wars or geopolitical disasters) or government confiscation of assets. ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 25, 2018 3:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 46
Views: 4794

Re: Unprecedented Event

Event like: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse The US EMP Commission published a rather depressing paper on the affect of a EMP event. I find the scary part is that there wouldn't be a need for mass use of nuclear weapons. And very little physical damage, other than our t...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 25, 2018 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vested in pension... leave it in or take it out?
Replies: 10
Views: 910

Re: Vested in pension... leave it in or take it out?

So with life comes change and I've been contemplating a big move to a new employer. I work for a government agency and am vested in our retirement plan. The plan, between what I have contributed and what the government has contributed equals nearly $125,000. I spoke with our personnel office and th...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 25, 2018 3:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are rising Bond Yields bad?
Replies: 35
Views: 3347

Re: Why are rising Bond Yields bad?

I'd like to add a question (I am curious): What is the 'magic' about a 3% yield on the 10-year treasury bond? Why is 3% so important, and not 4%, or 3.25 or 7%? ... What am I missing? I don't think you are missing anything. 3% is important for the same reason that some states have the speed limit i...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Guidance with Stock Options
Replies: 5
Views: 539

Re: Guidance with Stock Options

First time poster, long time reader. I respect and adopt many of the principles espoused on this forum. I have no previous experience with stock options. Last year I served a one year writing fellowship with a website company. Upon completion of the fellowship, I was granted non-qualified stock opt...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index
Replies: 13
Views: 930

Re: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index

Hi Valuethinker I've decided to go with your suggestion on 10 percent of the ordinarily gilt index fund. I've also decided to up bonds by another 10 percent and use this for the Global bonds fund. I think the two combined offer me some diversification benefits and should atleast provide pretty dece...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 142
Views: 8720

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

lack_ey wrote: But haven't they determined that the cost of currency hedging is something like single digits (or was it low teens) basis points for developed currencies back to USD? I think you're overstating the costs here. That being the effective "spread" they cross to enter into the currency fo...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]
Replies: 21
Views: 1018

Re: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]

Thank you very much everyone, for your educational responses and excellent points! So, to summarize: it sounds like in the short-term, you could possibly lose/gain money by choosing either VTI or VUN, but if one is investing over the long term (which I am), then the exchange rate fluctuations are l...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 142
Views: 8720

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

I totally agree with Rick and see no use in adding international bonds to a diversified US bond portfolio. US bonds historically have been if not the safest, certainly among the safest in the world. They are denominated in dollars the currency we spend. Currency exchange increases costs and adds cu...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying T-bills ..help needed
Replies: 17
Views: 1800

Re: Buying T-bills ..help needed

Can someone address the 2 questions under #3: how to sell t-bill before maturity? I have always held to maturity, but in the current rising yield environment, it may be wise to sell and replace with better yield new issues. But how to calculate the tradeoffs? Not for periods up to 360 days. You'd n...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Hedge Currency Risk? [for US ex-pats and non-US investors]
Replies: 8
Views: 529

Re: How to Hedge Currency Risk?

Thanks for starting this thread. I think the US dollar carries risk, not only relative to foreign travel, but also in case of a dramatic move relative to other currencies. I am certainly no currency expert, but my impression is that the past forty years have been unusually stable for the dollar. I ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mid May trip to Malta
Replies: 5
Views: 564

Re: Mid May trip to Malta

The title says it all. Wife and friend headed to Malta in May. Would love to hear any feedback that could improve their trip! Thanks in advance. We travelled around by local bus, but renting a car is certainly possible. There is a fabulous seafood restaurant in St Paul . Can't remember the name off...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]
Replies: 21
Views: 1018

Re: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]

Hello there, I'm confused about how listed currencies affect ETF returns. More specifically, the returns on USD-denominated ETFs, vs similar ETFs denominated in Canadian dollars. For instance, an ETF like VTI, which is USD-denominated and tracks the US total market, compared to an ETF like VUN, whi...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lending Club Investing
Replies: 26
Views: 2166

Re: Lending Club Investing

I have been using lending club for 5 years. Returns have consistently dwindled and for the past two years I have let my account spend down and should be finished by next year. My return has dropped from 13% the first year to 2.5%. when the robo institutions jumped in, the best loans would get bough...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 64
Views: 3395

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

13.3% Total US Bond Market 13.3% TIPS 13.3% Unhedged International Treasury Bond (IGOV) In practice, there's unlikely to be a large difference in performance from your previous outcome. You've also made rebalancing more complicated. Thus, do not do this if: - it leads to more taxable events - besid...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5484

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

but why are they more corrupt or dishonest than developed countries? If you have to ask the question, you shouldn't be invested in Russia. you mean that Russians are much more dishonest (assuming that's possible) than say Madoff or Kenneth Lay? I am hoping that you are being rhetorical and the flaw...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing (uk)
Replies: 6
Views: 387

Re: New to investing (uk)

Thanks for that a lot. I think you have changed me from 80/20 to 60/40 knowing this or even 70/30. I do like vanguard funds. I have always done index funds and had bad and good years but over all been pretty much upwards for the last 20yrs. I have a iii sipp with low costs. Will look at again in dr...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hong Kong Investor Portfolio and Asset Allocation Question
Replies: 16
Views: 911

Re: Hong Kong Investor Portfolio and Asset Allocation Question

I’ve had some time thinking about my situation and the advice I received. Just wanted to follow up on something regarding staying out of the property market. As mentioned, I don’t feel comfortable committing to buying so will be renting. But this got me thinking about two things (and this would app...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 64
Views: 3395

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

I am also struggling with this. I'm a semi-retired US citizen living in the EU (perhaps permanently but not sure yet) with a typical 60/40 portfolio held with a US broker. My living expenses are in Euros but I'm taking periodic withdrawals from a portfolio of USD. Besides increasing my ex-US equity...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tencent now largest non-US stock
Replies: 40
Views: 4537

Re: Tencent now largest non-US stock

That's the difference. In one case, it is a government actively encouraging specific accounting methods and practices for political reasons. In the other, it is individual companies breaking the law and, when caught, paying the price. Can't see the difference, there? Tencent currently has a higher ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lending Club Investing
Replies: 26
Views: 2166

Re: Lending Club Investing

So does a default loan just get refunded back to you as original loan amount? You are the lender. If someone defaults, any remaining principal and interest is written off. LC started off as a good idea, then went full "we would make more money if we allowed really big financial institutions an oppo...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 142
Views: 8720

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

The current US total market bond (VBTLX) sec yield is 2.99% and the current total international bond (VTABX) sec yield is 0.81%. If the sec yields were switched, with US at 0.81% and international at 2.99%, would you change your mind? I presume the US fund would have a large gain in price, and the ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relationship between Housing prices and wages
Replies: 3
Views: 575

Re: Relationship between Housing prices and wages

With rapidly increasing housing prices, I am wondering if wages are increasing on an average across the country. Certainly DH salary is barely keeping up with inflation. Curious if our salary hikes are in the lower end of the current trend. There does not seem to be a lot of correlation between hou...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing (uk)
Replies: 6
Views: 387

Re: New to investing (uk)

Thanks for that a lot. I think you have changed me from 80/20 to 60/40 knowing this or even 70/30. I do like vanguard funds. I have always done index funds and had bad and good years but over all been pretty much upwards for the last 20yrs. I have a iii sipp with low costs. Will look at again in dr...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing (uk)
Replies: 6
Views: 387

Re: New to investing (uk)

Having consolidated all my pensions since 18-49 I have amassed a amount of £280,000 which I need to re-invest. Any advice on if i am doing the corect thing I am thinking about £200k in vanguard lifestrategy 80 because this is going to be not just for 5yrs but probably until I die and drawing down a...