Search found 34565 matches

by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shifting Tides of Global Economic Power, 1820 to Today
Replies: 23
Views: 1422

Re: Shifting Tides of Global Economic Power, 1820 to Today

The use of PPP as opposed to exchange rate GDP does make a big difference. The data compiled by Angus Maddison, which are considered authoritative, show that the US surpassed the UK in GDP in 1872 and never lost its lead. The OP's graph showing PPP GDP says the crossover didn't come until around 19...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shifting Tides of Global Economic Power, 1820 to Today
Replies: 23
Views: 1422

Re: Shifting Tides of Global Economic Power, 1820 to Today

Although politicians talk about it, the U.S. hasn’t been truly concerned about economic growth in almost 60 years. China has been, but its economy must be managed in such a way to preserve political control. That's got to be a significant drag. Who knows where this ends up, but it sure looks China ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Titans of Junk: Behind the Debt Binge That Now Threatens Markets [Bloomberg article]
Replies: 14
Views: 1936

Re: Titans of Junk: Behind the Debt Binge That Now Threatens Markets [Bloomberg article]

I've been reading many articles recently like the OP's about record corporate debt levels and the danger this presents if the economy slows. Most of my fixed income is in laddered TIPs and CD's which, of course, have no exposure to this potential problem. However, one of my IRA accounts had a modes...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Real Estate Investment question
Replies: 5
Views: 454

Re: First Real Estate Investment question

That's not a good rental. Doesn't pass the 1% rule of thumb. Monthly rental = 1% of purchase price. 50% down doesn't take advantage of leverage. Any good duplexes where you can "house hack" and live in one side/rent out the other side, effectively reducing your housing cost to $0? BiggerPockets is ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Real Estate Investment question
Replies: 5
Views: 454

Re: First Real Estate Investment question

Hello, I'm 28, single with no kids, I've been renting and saving for a couple of years, and I have about 230k in cash. I live cheaply and keep expenses low. With interest rates rising I was thinking to buy some less expensive real estate, in a good area, with the hopes of turning it into a rental i...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shifting Tides of Global Economic Power, 1820 to Today
Replies: 23
Views: 1422

Re: Shifting Tides of Global Economic Power, 1820 to Today

. It's simply to raise the prospect that, uncomfortable as it might be for many investors, the U.S. economic dominance of the 20th century is not guaranteed (or even likely) to extend through the 21st. Yes. However we have the UK example. UK is no longer a world power but basically a regional one w...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shifting Tides of Global Economic Power, 1820 to Today
Replies: 23
Views: 1422

Re: Shifting Tides of Global Economic Power, 1820 to Today

One metric that I think is also telling is GDP/person in addition to total GDP. If the country has alot of GDP due to population it does not make the country rich. The interesting clash of approaches will play out in the 21st century. The US/UK & commonwealth/Europe have a more decentralized approa...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Drums Of (Trade) War
Replies: 7
Views: 1263

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Drums Of (Trade) War

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-drums-trade-war?nopaging=1 Excellent Bogleheadish article. Larry uses the specific example of the current potential for a trade war to emphasize many more general important BH points: have a plan and stick to it, passive beats active, valuat...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy
Replies: 73
Views: 4588

Re: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy

What do you guys think about global inflation linked bond ETFs? (eg https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?distributionPolicy=distributionPolicy-accumulating&fsg=more100&assetClass=class-bonds®ion=World&groupField=index&from=search&isin=LU0290357929) Would it be useful for a European to inc...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing benefit? Or just pure luck?
Replies: 4
Views: 756

Re: Market timing benefit? Or just pure luck?

Recently I'm bored and I played with numbers from Simba's backtesting spreadsheet, just for fun. I observed something which is puzzling to me: 1. If I invested $1 in US stocks in 1970, it will grow to $112.66 by the end of 2017. 2. If I invested $1 in ex-US stocks in 1970, it will grow to $59.39 by...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Valuation
Replies: 4
Views: 739

Re: Pension Valuation

Hi All, I had a pension evaluated and it would pay $980 a month in 25 years. The present value of the pension was $37K. Does that seem right? If somebody told me that I can give them $37K now and get $980 a month in 25 years for as long as I live, My gut tells me that I should jump on it. Does anyb...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flat real yield curve
Replies: 7
Views: 1186

Re: Flat real yield curve

I guess the market very much expects real rates to fall. My understanding is that real interest rates today are largely determined in a global market context, since capital markets are so highly integrated worldwide. At the same time, since exchange rates are still free to vary among major economie...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 139
Views: 8837

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

"Leverage is bad" is not a reasonable conclusion from his story. From his thread, I did learn that having someone that can bail you out on the order of six figures makes things safer. ;-) His academic work had convinced MT that this was a good strategy. When reality collides with theory, reality is...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Going solar?
Replies: 73
Views: 5407

Re: Going solar?

I live in NM and I had a new house built in 2013 that is a "green" energy efficient house that was designed to have solar. It has an electric heat pump for heating. The only non-electric energy used in the house is the propane hot water heater. I am not sure how much the solar cost (maybe around $3...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in oil?
Replies: 13
Views: 874

Re: Investing in oil?

obviously I meant putting the money in an index fund/etf that follows the price of a barrel of oil Enormous discussion here if you search back through threads. Turns out the oil ETFs don't track the price of oil very well. That's a problem for all financial investors in a physical commodity. You ne...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Going solar?
Replies: 73
Views: 5407

Re: Going solar?

We spent a lot on everything, particularly green technologies. At the time no one could give us any real estimate of what we would save, we knew it wasn’t that economical but were interested in being a guinea pig for upscale use of green technologies, which were uncommon in our area at that time. W...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon won't sell this book to me.
Replies: 68
Views: 8305

Re: Amazon won't sell this book to me.

I have always felt that IF an individual had a better employment opportunity other than working for (insert name of your choice) then surely they would exercise their freedom to seek other employment. I agree in theory but see just the opposite in practice. Many people exhibit inertia and avoid cha...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 139
Views: 8837

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Some other thoughts. 1) think in general you want to reduce your mortgage, your home property leverage over time. You start out at 5x leveraged as you say-ie 20% down payment or 20% equity. Arguably by the time you retire you should be 100% equity or 0x leveraged. 2) that does not necessarily mean ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 139
Views: 8837

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

The book Successful investing is a process has a pretty good chapter on the effects of volatility drag on leveraged stock investments. https://www.amazon.com/Successful-Investing-Process-Structuring-Outperformance/dp/1118459903/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1531621273&sr=8-1&keywords=successful+investing+...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 139
Views: 8837

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

They argue that margin is probably the cheapest way to accomplish it but in tax-advantaged accounts you could use an ETF like ProShares UltraPro S&P500 as part of a portfolio to achieve 1.5x or 2x leverage for extended periods of time. I strongly disagree with using ultra funds for leverage. You ar...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 139
Views: 8837

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

A mortgage for a home is backed by the property itself. What is a margin loan backed by? I would think it isn’t the stock itself, but your financial accounts. So you can’t pay the loan for the house? You lose the house, but not your money (at least in a non-recourse state). A margin loan is called ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 139
Views: 8837

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

I think using reasonable leverage in equity investing is good as a long-term strategy. Link was posted yesterday to an interesting video with Jack Bogle discussing this briefly: https://youtu.be/k6ra5POdsYg?t=623 Investing is to a large degree about managing risk. I agree. In Lifecycle Investing, I...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2372

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

That's interesting. To be honest I didn't know cash is a good inflation hedge? I always thought the opposite. I think the early 1980s Volker period when the Fed was trying to crush inflation may distort the numbers? Since cash pays the lowest return in the long run it should be a poor inflation hed...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 71
Views: 3762

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Real estate is unique in that it is one of the few businesses where you can use leverage to invest in a potentially appreciating asset. Wildbill, I've appreciated your posts & insight. Would you clarify the above statement? Seems to me that someone could use leverage to invest in stocks also. Howev...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MFs in India [Mutual Funds]
Replies: 18
Views: 1295

Re: MFs in India [Mutual Funds]

hi all, I am looking for advice on MF investing in India. I am new to investing and John Bogle's ideas. The last 3 months have been eye opening to say the least. I live in the US, and I like the index fund approach using vanguard funds. Is it possible to do this in India ? My dad, who is retired, n...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7349

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Are the Vanguard numbers per cent of total portfolio or just of equities? 30 per cent of 60 per cent equities would be 18 per cent of total portfolio. If the 40 per cent is in US bonds then overall currency risk would probably be bearable. Vanguard's advice is 20% to 40% of equities . As to currenc...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy
Replies: 73
Views: 4588

Re: Looking for EUR holy grail bond strategy

What do you guys think about global inflation linked bond ETFs? (eg https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?distributionPolicy=distributionPolicy-accumulating&fsg=more100&assetClass=class-bonds®ion=World&groupField=index&from=search&isin=LU0290357929) Would it be useful for a European to inc...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7349

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Someone will perhaps post the link to the Vanguard study. I can't do so from where I am right now. https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGEB.pdf Conclusion: In light of quantitative analysis and qualitative considerations, we have demonstrated that domestic investors should consider allocating part of th...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7349

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

So what do all of you recommend for AA for US/international? 80/20? In my brokerage, I’m only 11.7% international. I auto invest a good chunk of money each month, which I have set to 75% VTSAX 25% VTIAX. I’m thinking of maybe doing 50/50 for a while as international is supposed to be a better value...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8481

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

I quickly cobbled together a somewhat similar analysis for the UK, using inflation-adjusted annual returns. Very nice, siamond. What stands out to me is how severe the Oil and Inflation Shocks of the 1970s were for both UK and US stocks and bonds — and probably for all the other developed nations t...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8481

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Would it not be fair to say that 100% TIPS would be the optimal portfolio for capital preservation (in terms of real money); whereas, wouldn't a 50/50 portfolio also provide the possibility for capital growth (real growth) while still giving you the insurance you need against such extreme events? Y...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?
Replies: 27
Views: 1993

Re: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?

Seems a bit high, but if it's a high growth area the expectation for some might be in the price appreciation more than the rent. San Francisco saw something like a 12% increase in the first six months of 2018. At that rate, who cares about rent? ... Or even a job... just get into a house and a HELO...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 76
Views: 9902

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

The stock price of Netflix is quite mystery to me. From value investor point of view, the company financial is quite garbage with regard to its near 300 P/E ratio, 15+ years after IPO, still negative free cash flow, still heavy in debt and depends on borrowing for growth instead of internal cash fl...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Irish-domiciled Small Cap Value
Replies: 2
Views: 206

Re: Irish-domiciled Small Cap Value

I am looking for an Irish-based Small Cap Value ETF. Ideally it is a global one, but worst case I may settle for a US only Small Cap Value. I am no expert in judging which ETF fits the asset class I want, but it seems like I do not have many options. Option 1: Vanguard Global Value Factor UCITS ETF...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?
Replies: 14
Views: 1299

Re: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?

There have been some drastic swings Is this true? It sure doesn't feel like the movement has been extraordinary. I have not looked at specific data compared to historical norms. I don't see anything "drastic." I've drawn circles by hand around "big swings:" yellow for those that look about the same...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which degree to pursue?
Replies: 16
Views: 1156

Re: Which degree to pursue?

Greetings, Good morning everyone, I hope all is well. I am considering going back to school to earn degree in either industrial engineering or operational management, I have a passion for optimizing processes and critical businesses (rail, utilities, logistics, etc.). I currently have a regular bus...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thinking about moving to Madison, WI or Minneapolis, MN..Any advice?
Replies: 62
Views: 4867

Re: Thinking about moving to Madison, WI or Minneapolis, MN..Any advice?

I've lived in MN for much of my life and have only been to Madison as a visitor (probably 8 times.) You write "While I would prefer living in Colorado..." so I will ask if you have been to CO and why it's on your list? Mpls: Great economy for your career. The "MN Nice" is a real thing and sometimes...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to diversify account held in my name [inherited Canadian stock]
Replies: 8
Views: 383

Re: Want to diversify account held in my name [inherited Canadian stock]

This is a simple call for me. I know too much about Canadian housing market and consumer debt load. Both of which are worse than USA in 2006. This will crack and it will not be pretty. Canadian bank stocks, including reinvested dividends, are up something like 10x to 20x over last 25 years. They hav...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for expat [Australian ex-pat]
Replies: 12
Views: 428

Re: Portfolio for expat [Australian ex-pat]

>France's current exit tax system will effectively force you to do that anyways. You will pay tax on an assumed sale when you leave. The problem is that your new country might not count that exit tax payment against taxes owed in that country when you sell there. So, probably best to sell them in a...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Monthly Water Usage
Replies: 61
Views: 3947

Re: Monthly Water Usage

117,000 gallons every 6-months. Indeed that's a lot. My "environment" friends go crazy when I tell them. Personally, I don't care. My lawn looks fabulous, and 1-hour showers with multiple heads is relaxing. This costs roughly $2,000 per year. Wow Yeah.., he may not care now... but when the local aq...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to hit grand slam with small % portfolio?
Replies: 49
Views: 3221

Re: Trying to hit grand slam with small % portfolio?

I don’t see why people here object to say 10-20k allowance (from low 7 figure portfolio in mid 40s) to some speculative high risk high reward investments like individual stocks, small cap biotech funds, cryptos, etc. The 10-20k would hardly be noticed if lost, but the upside could pay for a nice va...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for expat [Australian ex-pat]
Replies: 12
Views: 428

Re: Portfolio for expat [Australian ex-pat]

Valuethinker: Thanks for your reply and sharing some of your experience. Regarding the two big issues: 1. MIFID - I was thinking to purchase Ireland or Luxembourg domiciled instruments, which should meet the EU reporting requirements. This was also to avoid any complications with US estate / inheri...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for expat [Australian ex-pat]
Replies: 12
Views: 428

Re: Portfolio for expat [Australian ex-pat]

Hi 2 big issues First is mifid II. Mostly European brokers can no longer sell you US listed ETFs. Fund has to meet European documentation requirements. Being UK based I use a UK broker and research my funds from iShares. Vanguard UK would be my alternative. Most funds are Ireland domiciled and liste...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Portfolio Ever (Australian ETFs)
Replies: 9
Views: 583

Re: First Portfolio Ever (Australian ETFs)

Hi everyone, I am really new to the investment game and been reading a lot to get myself educated but still have lots to learn! I'm in a place where I am comfortable I understand enough to start investing with an initial $5K, but I would love some advice/feedback on the following portfolio and whet...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for portfolio advice [Hungary]
Replies: 12
Views: 722

Re: Looking for portfolio advice [Hungary]

The following bond ETFs have piqued my interest: iShares Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF (AGGU) - USD hedged, nice coverage of everything, but includes corporate bonds -> risky. iShares Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF (AGGH) - EUR hedged, otherwise the same. iShares Global Govt Bond UCITS ETF (IGLA...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 11845

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

Here is more: John Weinberg, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond said: Since its inception, the Federal Reserve has been authorized to lend to banks. At first, access to the Federal Reserve Banks’ standard lending facility―known as the “discount window”―was limited to member banks, and collateral was ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 11845

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

This events happen but are temporary in nature. If you believe in current account fund accounting, when the public sector is in deficit then the private sector is in surplus. There are economists who say that the US Public Debt is equal to national savings. There is spirited debate over this. But i...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice For My Side Business - Reselling Used Electronics
Replies: 14
Views: 1328

Re: Advice For My Side Business - Reselling Used Electronics

I did this as my own business when in college, during the early days of eBay when you could still go to pawn shops and thrift stores and score huge scores (more than a few $15 purchases that sold for $700+). Let me set some expectations: 98 percent of stuff that is discarded is for a reason: it has...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017
Replies: 32
Views: 2054

Re: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017

My now vague memory from a Finance class in college (1980-ish, and I didn't always show up) was that dividends were THE WAY to drive stock prices for companies. That assumption would play out with today's retirees expecting large dividends and continuing to buy dividend stocks. It turns out to be t...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie UK investor hoping to get started. Just lifestrategy?
Replies: 10
Views: 530

Re: Newbie UK investor hoping to get started. Just lifestrategy?

Hey, Hoping to get started with investing, I currently have only a small set of funds set aside to open my account(~£1500), but would be expecting to add £1k/month to the account. Essentially just adding to the fund as opposed to my bank account(I currently have ~2 years living expenses held). Plan...