Search found 33327 matches

by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which tropical Island to Retire to ?
Replies: 18
Views: 1264

Re: Which tropical Island to Retire to ?

Anyone here retired or thinking of retiring to a tropical island/Beach community etc ? How do you like it ? What is healthcare like ? My choice would be US West Coast, north of San Francisco to British Columbia. But the water will be cold, and the winter rainy. There might also be some places along...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which tropical Island to Retire to ?
Replies: 18
Views: 1264

Re: Which tropical Island to Retire to ?

Do peninsulas count? Picking up on what RadAudit wrote, I would look at Iberia: Portugal and Spain. European infrastructure, amenities, and health care. The climate of the French Riviera, with an abundance of blue flag beaches (clean water, well maintained). Abundant fresh produce and fruit. Medite...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving to Canada
Replies: 15
Views: 1583

Re: Moving to Canada

2 yrs. in Canada, you will not be coming back! Canadians are wonderful people, enjoy! My thought exactly. Why would you return? May be not! Will see. The socialized medicine system has a lot of attractions for a medical professional-- you don't worry about client ability to pay, you just worry abou...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Commodities for rising interest rates
Replies: 10
Views: 417

Re: Commodities for rising interest rates

I am wondering if the better informed here have opinions on what commodities may do in a rising interest rate environment? Thanks, Zach Commodities tend to move up when real interest rates (roughly real = nominal - expected inflation) are low. Commodity positions are financed, and thus a low cost o...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Commodities for rising interest rates
Replies: 10
Views: 417

Re: Commodities for rising interest rates

I'm no expert, but I have an opinion... :? There are many ways to obtain and hold commodities -- buy ETF precious metal equivalents, buy mining stocks, buy the metals, invest with hedgers. Each has costs and risks and high volatility. You can parse them this way and that, but my opinion is that whe...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Commodities for rising interest rates
Replies: 10
Views: 417

Re: Commodities for rising interest rates

Commodities would have worked well in the high inflation period that was based on expensive oil prices, but not since then. Look at a price chart for PCRIX. Rising interest rates from near zero to very low single digit amounts could be viewed at returning towards normal rates, or reported by the me...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Commodities for rising interest rates
Replies: 10
Views: 417

Re: Commodities for rising interest rates

Commodities (CCF) are sold on the futures market (Chicago) and without going into significant detail are sold as a derivative. Basically, the derivative price ends up getting closer and closer to the spot price as the call date arrives. So for one to make money you are waiting for a situation of UN...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Commodities for rising interest rates
Replies: 10
Views: 417

Re: Commodities for rising interest rates

Some history: After WWI, France built the Maginot Line of fortified positions on their German border to prevent another invasion from there. At the start of WWII, the Germans quickly drove their tanks through Belgium to its unfortified border with France, bypassing the Maginot Line. The future is o...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk for non-US residents
Replies: 14
Views: 877

Re: Currency risk for non-US residents

Sure I can buy US bond funds in the USA - that's what I do now - I have Vanguard TBM. The point of my original post was to mitigate my exchange rate risk. You're saying now "just don't worry" which was my #4 option in the original post, it seems.[/qutoe] Ahh sorry. I am being a bit unclear? As the ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some alternative, numerical proxies for risk besides volatility?
Replies: 13
Views: 436

Re: What are some alternative, numerical proxies for risk besides volatility?

Max-Drawdown is another numerical proxy for risk that is often used as is the closely related "ulcer-index". Maximum drawdown is far superior, IMHO, to standard deviation as a measure of risk. The more that time goes on, the less I think that standard deviation is relevant for most investors. Peopl...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some alternative, numerical proxies for risk besides volatility?
Replies: 13
Views: 436

Re: What are some alternative, numerical proxies for risk besides volatility?

First, let's talk about the advantages of standard deviation. It is a generic robust theoretically solid tool. It can be used with multiple different asset classes, time frames, or secular conditions. It puts out actionable and useful predictions. It has flaws but the flaws are well known. Semi-var...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk for non-US residents
Replies: 14
Views: 877

Re: Currency risk for non-US residents

Thanks Valuethinker, you're helping me a lot. And you've helped me to push myself to learn a little more about Israel govt bonds. I'd much prefer to just buy a bond fund, but I think PFIC regulation would preclude that option, unfortunately. So as far as I can tell, the Israeli government issues 4 ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving to Canada
Replies: 15
Views: 1583

Re: Moving to Canada

Hello there. I live in the US and in six month am moving to Canada. Let's say I have $120K in the US that I'd like to invest in a taxable account over the next 2.5 years. There is about 90% chance that I will come back to the US after two years in Canada. Below are the two options I have in mind. 1...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk for non-US residents
Replies: 14
Views: 877

Re: Currency risk for non-US residents

I don't plan to repatriate, so I'd like a plan that covers me without this option. I don't know if my home country is credit risk free, nor whether they will uphold bank insurance. My home country is Israel - does anyone else have an idea on how to answer these questions? Israel prints its own curr...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Global or local area bond, Inflation linked or not - pros/cons
Replies: 3
Views: 252

Re: Bonds - Global or local area bond, Inflation linked or not - pros/cons

Also in a financial crisis the USD tends to rise (flight to safety). :confused https://i.imgur.com/tPYX7cS_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium June-2007 1$ = 0.74€ June-2008 1$ = 0.64€ loss: 13% Depends where we start the Financial Crisis-- although there were many warning tremors, it hi...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do REIT's belong in asset allocation- under stocks or in a separate class?
Replies: 2
Views: 227

Re: Where do REIT's belong in asset allocation- under stocks or in a separate class?

They are stocks and have the risk characteristics of stocks. +1 A review of past volatility leads to that conclusion. Although the underlying driver of real estate is different from that of most stocks (but also generally linked to business conditions and interest rates) the REITs behave like stock...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"
Replies: 32
Views: 2947

Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Sometimes I wonder if these people are living on a different planet. 2008-09, 2011, and 15-16 weren't that emotionally stressful. Bogleheads and EMH provided me with a framework for putting things in context. 2008 was a financial panic, but not an unprecedented one, and putting things in perspectiv...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Currency Exchange - Living Internationally Off A US Dollar Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 498

Re: Currency Exchange - Living Internationally Off A US Dollar Portfolio

Great post, and why I will just keep the insured amounts in the expat bank. Really, most of my financial life is still going to reside in the US, so for me, it just makes sense to keep what I think I will be safe in expat land. I think 3 months in the bank and an appropriate amount of cash is what ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"
Replies: 20
Views: 1566

Re: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"

Good to hear. And a good reminder of the difference between an investment and a speculation. "You will never see a fund from Vanguard on bitcoin," Buckley told CNBC's Bob Pisani on Monday. "We tend to stay away from assets that don't have underlying economic value. They don't generate earnings or c...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Leveraged ETF of ETFs Targets Retirees Seeking 7% Return
Replies: 10
Views: 1187

Re: New Leveraged ETF of ETFs Targets Retirees Seeking 7% Return

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-16/new-leveraged-etf-of-etfs-targets-retirees-seeking-7-return "Leverage” and “retirement” are two words you don’t normally hear together, but that’s exactly the combination one new exchange-traded fund is cooking up. The Strategy Shares NASDAQ 7 HAND...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"
Replies: 20
Views: 1566

Re: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"

Bogle initially rejected ETFs. Now Vanguard is playing catch up to Blackrock. Blackrock is playing catch up to Blackrock. They acquired Barclays Global Investors, which owned ishares, the first ETF provider (other than a Canadian anomaly), which they had acquired from Wells Fargo a long time ago. V...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Global or local area bond, Inflation linked or not - pros/cons
Replies: 3
Views: 252

Re: Bonds - Global or local area bond, Inflation linked or not - pros/cons

Hi all :beer , I live in Europe and I am 35 years old. I decide to proceed with a two funds long term investment for the next 30+ years. I will start with common allocation 80% stocks and 20% bonds. For the stock part I choose a global stock index ETF. For the bond part I am not sure what is the be...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Currency Exchange - Living Internationally Off A US Dollar Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 498

Re: Currency Exchange - Living Internationally Off A US Dollar Portfolio

AlohaJoe, how do you "transfer" your quarterly cash? What method do you use to keep the costs down? I use a wire transfer from Interactive Brokers to my local bank account. It is free. Using checks sounds....crazy. Also, I don't think I could have two (2) years of living expenses where I am going i...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Calculate Value of Defined Benefit Plan
Replies: 22
Views: 2298

Re: How to Calculate Value of Defined Benefit Plan

I have a defined benefit plan with a safe organization, at least safe insofar as if its pension plan went bust, the entire global economy has probably crashed. Think similar to federal government but at the international level. My plan is to retire within the next year or two, annual pension income...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Canadian Windfall Investment
Replies: 1
Views: 192

Re: Canadian Windfall Investment

I moved to the U.S 5 years ago and plan to continue to live/work here. I am the beneficiary of a hump of Canadian windfall on the order of 200K :moneybag . I am wondering if I should keep the money in Canada in Canadian $ and invest in Canadian ETFs or to Convert to USD and add to my current US Inv...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 121
Views: 14519

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Have noticed presently, the relatively few apparently good value positions are those with serious clouds/doubts hanging over them! This might be telling us more about markets than companies ? Those are the ones where the risks have already manifested to the downside. The others flying high also hav...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities for rising interests rates?
Replies: 2
Views: 210

Re: Commodities for rising interests rates?

I am wondering what the more informed folks here think about commodities in a rising interest rate environment? Thanks, Zach In principle rising interest rates are bad for commodity investments. The opportunity cost of investing in anything that pays no return, like commodities (or gold, or bitcoin...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bankruptcy questions
Replies: 16
Views: 1327

Re: Bankruptcy questions

She cant work out a discount on medical bill and a payment plan to avoid bankruptcy. I would literally tell the medical bill folks if you can not work out some plan and discount I am going for bankruptcy and you will get nothing. It should motivate them to take action. +1 I know people who did just...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bankruptcy questions
Replies: 16
Views: 1327

Re: Bankruptcy questions

She cant work out a discount on medical bill and a payment plan to avoid bankruptcy. I would literally tell the medical bill folks if you can not work out some plan and discount I am going for bankruptcy and you will get nothing. It should motivate them to take action. +1 Definitely worth a try. Ha...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Individual Corporate Bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 555

Re: Investing in Individual Corporate Bonds

Hi, My wife and I are maxing out on our 401k's which are mostly invested in targeted date funds. We also have about a brockerage account with stocks in it. However, we've accumulated a significant amount of cash that seats in the MM accounts. We're both in mid 40s. Im thinking individual BBB corpor...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk for non-US residents
Replies: 14
Views: 877

Re: Currency risk for non-US residents

I appreciate the replies. So Valuethinker and in_reality, it sounds like you'd both recommend diversifying the currency exposure with Intl equities, along the lines of the 50/50 market-cap split that I mentioned? And leaving it at that, and not worrying so much about the bonds side, leaving it all ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 121
Views: 14519

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Have noticed presently, the relatively few apparently good value positions are those with serious clouds/doubts hanging over them! This might be telling us more about markets than companies ? Those are the ones where the risks have already manifested to the downside. The others flying high also hav...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 121
Views: 14519

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Poster upthread made the comments that they sell products that people buy. Could someone explains what happens when the individual divisions get spun off? So if all the sudden that GE decides to spin off its health-care and turbine divisions, do regular share holders get a stake in the companies sp...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk for non-US residents
Replies: 14
Views: 877

Re: Currency risk for non-US residents

Hi Bogleheads, I invest in the US due to tax restrictions (PFIC laws), but my future spending is not going to be in USD, as I live overseas and plan to stay here. I currently have a 3-fund portfolio, with a reasonably high allocation to Intl (37%). I am becoming more concerned with the currency ris...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost money through Bitconnect scam - learned my lesson
Replies: 94
Views: 7001

Re: Lost money through Bitconnect scam - learned my lesson

I’ve been living the Boglehead life for the past 6-7 years. Three fund portfolio and have stuck to the plan. I’ve also made a lot of money so my net worth has risen substantially from income and investments. More money just meant more savings and I’ve also been paying down my mortgage. Until Januar...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost money through Bitconnect scam - learned my lesson
Replies: 94
Views: 7001

Re: Lost money through Bitconnect scam - learned my lesson

Everyone knows something is a scam in hindsight. Quite frankly it doesn't really matter if the outcome is the same. In 1998 you might have admitted putting money into Enron was speculating (though people thought they were "investing" in Enron). By 2002 everyone knows Enron was a criminal scam. Sema...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?
Replies: 45
Views: 2174

Re: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?

Most Economic theories, to be tractable, assume that there's no transaction costs and that there's complete/perfect information in the market. That is the case with EMT. Most versions of EMT will make an exception for inside information precisely because of the information asymmetry that insiders h...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ireland domiciled ETF vs Unit Trust [Non-US]
Replies: 4
Views: 318

Re: Ireland domiciled ETF vs Unit Trust [Non-US]

A Unit Trust represent a fixed pool investment offered for sale on the open market. I don't believe that is the case here. A UIT (unit investment trust) is a closed ended fund in the US. In Ireland and the UK a Unit Trust can be an open ended investment vehicle that operates similarly to the open-e...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Indian Stock Market - Fund selection
Replies: 15
Views: 1255

Re: Investing in Indian Stock Market - Fund selection

Investing in Indian Stock Market is great but don't you need to have an ADAR card and bank account associated with it? I am not sure if it is open to international investors. The returns on Indian stock index funds are in the 25-33% vicinity easily/year. I know all bogleheads including me should ne...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Indian Stock Market - Fund selection
Replies: 15
Views: 1255

Re: Investing in Indian Stock Market - Fund selection

I would highly recommend the emerging markets ETF by Vanguard. There might be great returns in the Indian stock market, but you might find those returns being eaten up by currency fluctuations... The conventional problem with the ETFs is a heavy weighting towards China. Diluting any exposure to Ind...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Indian Stock Market - Fund selection
Replies: 15
Views: 1255

Re: Investing in Indian Stock Market - Fund selection

I would highly recommend the emerging markets ETF by Vanguard. There might be great returns in the Indian stock market, but you might find those returns being eaten up by currency fluctuations... The conventional problem with the ETFs is a heavy weighting towards China. Diluting any exposure to Ind...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?
Replies: 32
Views: 2046

Re: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?

First, I find this forum very useful, lots of good information here. I feel like I am ready to drink the proverbial coolaid and commit to an asset allocation model portfolio. In principal I would like to go 70/30 stocks bonds, but I am really concerned about macro issues that surround bonds. 1. Fro...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?
Replies: 32
Views: 2046

Re: High dividend stocks as bond substitute?

I think the key thing would be to buy companies which have a very good chance of surviving the coming years of disruption. A lot of high dividend king stocks have been a sensible investment for the past 100 years. But that doesn't mean they will be safe for the next hundred... There are actually ve...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?
Replies: 32
Views: 2046

Re: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?

Equities are not bonds, nor are they a substitute. Agree but the OP does have a point with being at end of a secular bond bull market. Bond rates should rise in the next few years. After all, they did so from these levels for the Eurozone and for Japan? Equities are not a bond substitute, but what ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The wisdom of buying a car that doesn't depreciate (much)
Replies: 36
Views: 5482

Re: The wisdom of buying a car that doesn't depreciate (much)

I am a car guy. Always have been. If you look through my previous posts, you'll see I bought a 2000 Porsche Boxster S three years ago when it was pretty much fully depreciated. Unfortunately, that blew up in my face (almost literally) when the engine was destroyed 200 miles after picking it up in S...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The wisdom of buying a car that doesn't depreciate (much)
Replies: 36
Views: 5482

Re: The wisdom of buying a car that doesn't depreciate (much)

Here's my take on it: some people really enjoy cars. If it's something that bring them happiness/joy they should absolutely buy whatever they want... even if it is a "bad investment". But they should not seek to justify it as an "investment". Owning a car is, pure and simple, consumption. There's a...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: this is why I value this Forum
Replies: 2
Views: 899

this is why I value this Forum

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=238161&p=3729290#p3729290

See the post by Nords re military on disability retiring to Hawaii.

It's just full of direct and seemingly sensible advice, pointed right at the OP's concerns, and anchored in personal experience.
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 145
Views: 12603

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

Good grief, folks, after reading the first dozen responses to this thread I wondered whether this is the Bogleheads forum or Mr. Money Mustache? Why so much negativity? Where’s the support on figuring out how to make it work? With a poster name like SurferLife, the question is not “if” or “when” th...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Indian Stock Market - Fund selection
Replies: 15
Views: 1255

Re: Investing in Indian Stock Market - Fund selection

https://www.barrons.com/articles/invest ... 1400777246

looks like there are a few closed end funds investing in India. IIF in particular.
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My bond portfolio has lost 3% before I’ve even started. Thoughts?
Replies: 1
Views: 816

Re: My bond portfolio has lost 3% before I’ve even started. Thoughts?

This is a simple yet complex issue. I am British but for various reasons held a lot of my money in other currencies. I had a large amount in USD. My intention was to convert this as/when I needed it. As is typical now is the time at which I need it. I have been coming up with an investment plan and...