Search found 34256 matches

by Valuethinker
Sun May 27, 2018 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taking a pension to invest in stocks
Replies: 14
Views: 648

Re: Taking a pension to invest in stocks

It's probably worth noting that a Defined Benefit pension scheme, CPI linked, is equivalent to an SPIA (inflation linked). To synthesize that with US TIPS bonds would, depending on date of retirement, cost 20-40x the annual payout of the pension. I haven't tried to model it in detail, but it would b...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 27, 2018 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?
Replies: 7
Views: 417

Re: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?

I have long advocated for those residing in the lower credit rating (usually southern) Eurozone countries holding a global govt bond fund (hedged into Euros) to dilute the credit risk of the Italian and Spanish govt bond markets. Yes, I know and this makes sense, but my problem is precisely that I ...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 27, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?
Replies: 7
Views: 417

Re: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?

Soros and others made billions against the Bank of England- The Aldwych beat Threadneedle St ( ;-) a reference to the location of Soros' alma mater, the LSE, vs. the Bank of England). yes, interestingly he studied philosophy there and was inspired by Karl Popper; it has occurred to me that Popper's...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 27, 2018 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [EU] Considering investing in 10Y Spanish bonds: Change my mind
Replies: 7
Views: 511

Re: [EU] Considering investing in 10Y Spanish bonds: Change my mind

Spain has somewhat higher govt debt to gdp around 100%. That is high but not as bad as others. The risk, which is remote, is that something happens such that Spain leaves the Euro. Perhaps precipitated by Greece leaving, after which other higher debt slower economies prefer to leave (Italy and Port...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 27, 2018 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with a few questions please - British expat
Replies: 4
Views: 453

Re: Help with a few questions please - British expat

Afternoon BH's I should probably start by informing you that I'm a British expat investor, and a relative new and amateur one at that. I have a few questions about my investment practices I am hoping you might advise me with. Some background information first. Age:50 Retirement:67 AA 80/20 (aggress...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 27, 2018 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taking a pension to invest in stocks
Replies: 14
Views: 648

Re: Taking a pension to invest in stocks

I have a friend who is a huge Dave Ramsey fan and works with a financial advisor somehow associated with Ramsey from what I gather. He is eligible pension with a benefit increases 5% a year until he claims it. His was separation from his previous company was acrimonious and he doesn't really trust ...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 27, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?
Replies: 7
Views: 417

Re: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?

I am from Italy and our next finance minister might be Paolo Savona, a well known eurosceptic (this is assuming the main parties and the president agree on the formation of the new government) https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/05/23/business/23reuters-italy-politics-savona.html Savona has alread...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 27, 2018 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?
Replies: 7
Views: 417

Re: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?

A currency union is very different than a currency peg. The concept of devaluation doesn't really apply. It would take many years to leave the euro in an orderly, sane way - just as it took many years to enter it. Entry and exit are not symmetrical problems in any way. Entry by definition was long ...
by Valuethinker
Sat May 26, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [EU] Considering investing in 10Y Spanish bonds: Change my mind
Replies: 7
Views: 511

Re: [EU] Considering investing in 10Y Spanish bonds: Change my mind

If the bond market is efficient then that is the markets estimate of the default probability per annum, less likely recoveries, of Spanish bonds over German Bunds. The European Central Bank most assuredly does not back the bonds of the member states of the Eurozone. Neither does the EU. If a default...
by Valuethinker
Sat May 26, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: WFC Float 03/49
Replies: 7
Views: 385

Re: WFC Float 03/49

alex_686 wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 9:48 am
Or better yet look it up on EDGER, the SEC's website. It should offer you all of the details.
EDGAR ?
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 38
Views: 2374

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

The big problem is that some domestic bond markets (Italy! One of the world's top 5 govt bond markets) are not risk free . I wouldn't consider government bonds risk free , they are just one of the less riskier types of bonds. In Italy, the risk is more visible because they have partly given up cont...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy an old farmhouse?
Replies: 48
Views: 3834

Re: Buy an old farmhouse?

The wife and I are strongly considering buying an 1844 3k sqft farmhouse on 15 acres. We've been processing things for about 2 weeks now. Kinda long, but all things considered, what advice do you have? Currently, we live on a 50' by 100' lot in a 2 story 1600 sq ft, 3 bed, 2 bath home on a block fu...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fear vs. reality. Don't worry. Be happy. [Outliving your retirement savings]
Replies: 40
Views: 3782

Re: Fear vs. reality. Don't worry. Be happy.

Were there pensions during ancient/medieval times for general working populace? Indexed pension is the 8th wonder of the world and seems to be more of an idea of the last few centuries??? From memory, when the US Social Security system was created, the average lifespan in retirement was expected to...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 38
Views: 2374

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

In the US vs International threads, there are often the same arguments repeated by the "home bias is ok if it's the US" crowd. Mostly that the US economy is awesome, efficient, and stable, while other countries are risky, corrupt, unstable, and not as awesome. Also, in the past US has outperformed ...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When did this start?? [Restaurant tipping on total bill]
Replies: 58
Views: 3480

Re: When did this start??

I'm in the top 10% of income earners in the wealthiest country on the planet, and usually the person serving me food is working a crap job just to make ends meet and making less in tips in a day than I make in an hour. So I've always adopted the Dave Ramsey philosophy of being "Outrageously generou...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 38
Views: 2374

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

This is a great question. Thanks for asking it! Thought I'd share this with this thread as well. Sector Weightings of VTSAX (Total US) and VTWSX (Total World) according to Morningstar: VTSAX VTWSX Basic Materials 3.19 5.88 Consumer Cyclical 12.35 12.27 Financial Services 16.72 18.42 Real Estate 3.5...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 38
Views: 2374

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

In the US vs International threads, there are often the same arguments repeated by the "home bias is ok if it's the US" crowd. Mostly that the US economy is awesome, efficient, and stable, while other countries are risky, corrupt, unstable, and not as awesome. Also, in the past US has outperformed ...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 38
Views: 2374

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

Pension funds are also a major factor. I suspect that in most countries government pension funds are directed to invest primarily, if not entirely, in local markets, be it stocks or RE. The big Canadian public, Defined Benefit, schemes have led the way in international investing, especially into Al...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 38
Views: 2374

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

There's been a clear trend towards greater global diversification. Which is visible even here on Bogleheads. 25 years ago, in 1993, it would have been the rare Boglehead who held any international at all. Now the conversation seems to have largely shifted to be about how much international you shou...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 38
Views: 2374

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

Why is 100% US ok at 51% cap but not 5%? Once an economy reaches a certain size it is internally diversified "enough". They have enough variety of industries within their borders. The US, China, Japan, and maybe the UK are the only countries that are at that point. UK most definitely not. The probl...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand zero coupon bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 747

Re: Help me understand zero coupon bonds

This is new territory for me. Fidelity is offering zero coupon treasuries maturing in 6 months at 2.09%. My understanding is that these would be state tax exempt. Under those circumstances they seem like a great place to stash cash that you may need 6 months from now but do not need immediately. Bu...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 3:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keep or sell primary residence condo after job move?
Replies: 15
Views: 892

Re: Keep or sell primary residence condo after job move?

Hi everyone, I live in a HCOL area in SoCal. Unhappy with my current job, I've decided to look for jobs outside our city and state. We live in a condo we purchased in 2016, with $415k mortgage @ 3.625% left: $3200 total monthly payments when HOA/taxes/PMI/insurance are factored in. Question: If I a...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 3:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tile roof, natural cooling, solar electric
Replies: 16
Views: 1264

Re: Tile roof, natural cooling, solar electric

I also double-checked our bills for the year. It's not quite as low as $100/month. The electrical portion averages about $130, with a one month high of 200 in December. My wife really likes her Christmas lights, and I really like my wife. If you replace all your Christmas lights with LED strings, t...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 38
Views: 2374

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

There's also currency risk. Having 95% of your investments in different currencies from your own minor currency could be at least psychologically tricky. 1. you can hedge your currency exposure - there are even equity funds which do so 2. your labour income and your home equity are in your home cur...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 25, 2018 3:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 38
Views: 2374

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

In the US vs International threads, there are often the same arguments repeated by the "home bias is ok if it's the US" crowd. Mostly that the US economy is awesome, efficient, and stable, while other countries are risky, corrupt, unstable, and not as awesome. Also, in the past US has outperformed ...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 24, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Solar Power in Austin, TX
Replies: 5
Views: 386

Re: Solar Power in Austin, TX

I am in Austin TX, having 8.75KW solar panels. 1-Varies bu utility. AE pays for your solar energy (close to 10c/KW), but you still pay for your regular usage. IMO this is better than net metering. My bill has been $0 since for last several years. 2-Multiple providers, AE, Pedernales ... Check Austi...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 24, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Crypto tokens in private sale prior to ICO
Replies: 21
Views: 1144

Re: Buying Crypto tokens in private sale prior to ICO

My DW works as a freelancer for a small financial company who is planning for initial coin offering (ICO) for their version of cryptocurrency. The company is offering her access to their private sale of crypto tokens prior to their anticipated ICO. The token price in private sale seems to be highly...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 24, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Real Estate
Replies: 67
Views: 3484

Re: TIAA Real Estate

There was certainly a lot of doom-and-gloom over at Mornginstar, and people seemingly bailing out right and left starting last year, so it will be interesting to see how things turn out going forward. I was one of the partial bailers, moving a part of my accumulation mode TREA into restricted Trad ...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 24, 2018 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a UK investor, which market should I invest in?
Replies: 6
Views: 537

Re: As a UK investor, which market should I invest in?

https://www.vanguard.co.uk/adviser/adv/ ... docId=1011

Looks like VWRL has a UK listing i.e. in GBP. Thus, presumably you could set your account to buy/ sell in GBP.
by Valuethinker
Thu May 24, 2018 4:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a UK investor, which market should I invest in?
Replies: 6
Views: 537

Re: As a UK investor, which market should I invest in?

Hi Valuethinker, thanks for your suggestions! I definitely like the idea of tracking the world index. To me, this seems to cover all bases. When I click on the link provided it asks me if I am a UK investor. I assume this means that I must be UK resident? If this is the case, then I am unable to bu...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 24, 2018 3:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK expat in China, new investor, help needed, please :)
Replies: 13
Views: 814

Re: UK expat in China, new investor, help needed, please :)

Tedswippet, sorry for the late reply. I have looked into several etfs and to keep it simple, I would ideally like one fund that follows the world market. I am not really sure how this affects the taxation situation though, as obviously one world fund has stocks from multiple countries with multiple...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 24, 2018 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK expat in China, new investor, help needed, please :)
Replies: 13
Views: 814

Re: UK expat in China, new investor, help needed, please :)

My father worked outside the UK for over 30 years, and retired outside the UK. He still paid into National Insurance. Had he retired in the UK (or the USA, or the EU, but not Australia nor Canada) he would have then qualified for the full state pension. That's worth having because it is currently m...
by Valuethinker
Wed May 23, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial and retirement issues associated w/ moving to Canada
Replies: 11
Views: 822

Re: Financial and retirement issues associated w/ moving to Canada

Greeting fellow Bogleheads, I have a question that stems from a complete lack of understanding issues associated with moving from the US to Canada. If you are kind enough to reply, please share the most obviously issues (assume you are explaining it to a Golden Retriever). Woof, woof, bbbrrrgggg, w...
by Valuethinker
Wed May 23, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial and retirement issues associated w/ moving to Canada
Replies: 11
Views: 822

Re: Financial and retirement issues associated w/ moving to Canada

It's probably worth noting that the Mutual Fund market is vastly less efficient and higher charges than its US equivalent. Vanguard is in Canada, but not on as such favourable terms, I understand. Canadians largely seem to get around this by opening a discount brokerage account, and buying ETFs. Hav...
by Valuethinker
Wed May 23, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial and retirement issues associated w/ moving to Canada
Replies: 11
Views: 822

Re: Financial and retirement issues associated w/ moving to Canada

And of course, you will be paying taxes at Canadian federal, provincial and local rates. AFAIK under the Canadian Constitution there is no "local rate" of taxation as such? At least not for income tax. The power of income taxation is granted to the Fed and the Provinces (& Territories), but not bel...
by Valuethinker
Wed May 23, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial and retirement issues associated w/ moving to Canada
Replies: 11
Views: 822

Re: Financial and retirement issues associated w/ moving to Canada

Hi - you need to check provincial eligibility for healthcare - you need to check with Immigration Canada (name may have changed) re whether you can immigrate and what the rules are - Canada heavily weights younger immigrants (and wishes to avoid a healthcare burden from older ones). This got easier ...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 20, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Solar panels
Replies: 96
Views: 8750

Re: Solar panels

I am a huge advocate for solar but do encourage people to do their own math. Unfortunately some installers show a much more attractive payback by including an overly aggressive "inflation" rate for traditional power costs. I do not think this is good for the industry as a whole but the public is by...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 20, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?
Replies: 25
Views: 2757

Re: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?

The following website describes the problem with using PB as a criterion for harvesting the value premium over the last 18 years during which it has underperformed its benchmark, the Russell 3000. The author suggests that PB no longer works but can be modified by substituting "Tangible Book Value" ...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 20, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Solar panels
Replies: 96
Views: 8750

Re: Solar panels

I am in NH where the electric rates are high and the solar days are mid-range so a strict ROI could be 7-10 years. However, solar panels do not conform to a traditional investment in a couple of different ways. Using my situation, a 5.1K array, targeting 110% replacement of used electricity cost me...
by Valuethinker
Sat May 19, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Solar panels
Replies: 96
Views: 8750

Re: Solar panels

With increase in natural gas production it's price has gone down and replaced many of the coal fired plants, reducing costs and pollution. If I understand it correctly, a sizable cost in Ca. is for decommissioning nuclear power plants. We also have some large wind farms but they do kill a substanti...
by Valuethinker
Sat May 19, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK expat in China, new investor, help needed, please :)
Replies: 13
Views: 814

Re: UK expat in China, new investor, help needed, please :)

Firstly, thank you for taking the time to reply and offer such good advice. It really is appreciated. valuethinker, I will tell a quick story as to why we have so much money in Russia. Then I will talk about the other points. If you want to skip the story, feel free :happy Before I married my wife ...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 18, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK expat in China, new investor, help needed, please :)
Replies: 13
Views: 814

Re: UK expat in China, new investor, help needed, please :)

Recently I ran into a nice problem - my UK bank accounts are almost full to the insured limit, and as a non-resident I am unable to open more. So, this got me thinking, it is time to start investing. I started reading and asking family members for advice. The more I read, the more confused I got. T...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 18, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a UK investor, which market should I invest in?
Replies: 6
Views: 537

Re: As a UK investor, which market should I invest in?

https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251881/ishares-msci-world-ucits-etf-inc-fund IWRD would be an example. However: - it has to fit your tax situation - it is distributing, not accumulating - it is priced in USD On the last point, it does not hedge into USD, it simply reports in them. ...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 18, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a UK investor, which market should I invest in?
Replies: 6
Views: 537

Re: As a UK investor, which market should I invest in?

I have recently read various books, blogs and forums about investing. It's all very interesting stuff. However, I am still not sure which markets I should be investing most of my money in. Right now I have plenty of money invested in low paying bonds (160,00GBP) and about 45,000GBP cash to invest r...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 18, 2018 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Solar panels
Replies: 96
Views: 8750

Re: Solar panels

As for energy inflation....I would not be surprised if it was negative over the next 10-20 years. Numerous new ways of making energy cheaply have been fielded recently, and are being rapidly built out. What do you expect to happen in that case? Interesting. I have always taken the opposite view: at...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 17, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying land in central FL
Replies: 55
Views: 5175

Re: Buying land in central FL

There are places in Florida where at certain times of year the weather consists of insects. This! Never underestimate the power and persistence of the American mosquito! http://www.mosquito.org/page/mosquitoinfo There are over 3,000 different species of mosquitoes throughout the world; currently 17...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 17, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Margin debt ratio
Replies: 39
Views: 2423

Re: Margin debt ratio

Is there any reach about a leveraged bond fund and a leveraged stock fund? Say 60% bonds and 40% stocks, both funds leveraged 2x? Yes. For bond funds look under "Banks" You are basically taking on duration risk just like a bank. For stocks look under "Hedge Funds". HF have historically earned above...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 17, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Junk Bond fund
Replies: 65
Views: 3669

Re: Vanguard Junk Bond fund

Looking at a chart of VWEAX since 2010 when I bought it, it appears the price has gone from 3.20 to 5.76. So, looks good to me. What am I missing? Thanks. Most funds will have charts like that over that time period. What we are discussing is whether returns on this fund properly reward the risk. Th...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 17, 2018 5:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying land in central FL
Replies: 55
Views: 5175

Re: Buying land in central FL

We've been approached by a broker agency that they are selling a few pristine lots few acres in size each. They have only a dozen or so lots available. Some face water some are totally wooded. It's a first time sale of that land, meaning it was privately owned and undeveloped forever. They are pric...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 17, 2018 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Junk Bond fund
Replies: 65
Views: 3669

Re: Vanguard Junk Bond fund

Where is the risk ? It was $10 in 1979, 39 years ago and $6 in 2008. so NAV has not declined in last 10 years. Compared with the excellent dividends paid month after month the NAV since inception is negligible. Please do some homework before you post incorrect statements . Lines like that make me s...