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by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 21, 2018 5:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [The Economist: Should investors diversify away from America?]
Replies: 11
Views: 1623

Re: Thoughts on this article from The Economist?

Disagreed on all counts. Peruvian farmers are subsistence third world farmers - they don't have a choice. The more your sow the more you reap. Its simple logic. There is no diversification lesson here. I would urge everyone who is considering investing in International markets spend some time in th...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How This All Happened (to the US economy)
Replies: 34
Views: 5147

Re: How This All Happened (to the US economy)

Thanks for the read. I enjoyed it. I’ve often wondered if we could turn back the clock on income equality, what impact it would have on the country. Have you heard of a (prosperous) civilization that had income equality? Neither have I. :beer Straw man. No one is saying absolute equality is either ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 58
Views: 4539

Re: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky

I’m not saying that the risks that people are mentioning aren’t real, nor that they might possibly manifest in a default crisis of some sort. Instead, I’m saying that imagining a crisis is only really actionable if we have some estimate of both the likelihood and magnitude of such a crisis. Even if...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 58
Views: 4539

Re: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky

Now we're talking about a worst-case "municipal black swan" event that will cost investors somewhere between 0.25% and 0.75% of their municipal bond holdings on average. Is it not the case that an Illinois taxpayer might only hold Illinois municipal bonds? That was my point about risk concentration...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 58
Views: 4539

Re: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky

Before Puerto Rico there had never been a default of that size? After all state-sized legal entities did not go bankrupt? This would be a curious and ahistorical thing to claim, though. Mississippi, Arkansas, Florida, Michigan, Alabama, Arkansas (again), Florida (again), Georgia, Louisiana, North C...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 507
Views: 83027

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

As for the GM bailout, I think that was a major mistake, as did many others who howled about it here in the US. That said, it appears to be the exception, rather than "die regel". To reiterate, however, I don't believe that the US market is perfect. It has its warts. Convenient that all your foreig...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 507
Views: 83027

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

What we do have (IMHO) far more conclusive evidence for is Bogle's 'cost matters hypothesis'. And that is not something to be glossed over in this discussion. We know that investing in international equities involves some additional risks, at least one of which is an uncompensated risk, and costs. ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 507
Views: 83027

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I have not seen the Fama interview but generally I think most academic researchers in finance think (as Fama has said previously) that things like the value "anomaly" are, in fact, not anomalies, but just risk that we have not captured. For value for example I think it's a fairly standard story tha...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How This All Happened (to the US economy)
Replies: 34
Views: 5147

Re: How This All Happened (to the US economy)

I've been also reading Noah Yuval Harari's Homo Deus, and that experience has been similar to this piece by Housel -- a bit of hope mixed in with a bit of despair. His book 'Sapiens' was my favorite read of 2017. How does the new one compare? I'm halfway through and really enjoying it. He goes into...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How This All Happened (to the US economy)
Replies: 34
Views: 5147

Re: How This All Happened (to the US economy)

Thanks for the read. I enjoyed it. I’ve often wondered if we could turn back the clock on income equality, what impact it would have on the country. Have you heard of a (prosperous) civilization that had income equality? Neither have I. :beer Straw man. No one is saying absolute equality is either ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How This All Happened (to the US economy)
Replies: 34
Views: 5147

Re: How This All Happened (to the US economy)

Zygmunt Bauman tried to capture this in his book Liquid Life. Interesting piece, but I feel like it understates the profound effects of economic globalization. Arguably the biggest impacts of globalization have been cultural - that sense of cultural displacement. The dual impacts of the internet ma...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: technology index funds
Replies: 9
Views: 701

Re: technology index funds

What is your opinion on the technology index funds? I have 43% of my portfolio in nasdaq and technology. I am 62 years old. You are in a very dangerous position. Those of us who were tech millionaires in 2000 can tell you that. My employers stock dropped 90 per cent. I would sell and reinvest in a ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally
Replies: 30
Views: 1766

Re: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally

-77% drop since last December. The US stock market dropped -79% after the 1929 crash, but it took it three years to fall that far. Bitcoin did it in less than a year. https://imgur.com/IgAWv6U.png By the way, where is the Bitcoin ETF that the Winklevoss twins have been promising us since 2014? The ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 58
Views: 4539

Re: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky

Has been very low, you mean. The thing to argue over isn't the details of past default performance of muni's. It's the relevance to the future situation of heavier reliance of municipal issuers on stock performance than anything seen in the past, for investors counting on munis to be the safe backs...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 507
Views: 83027

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

We believe that markets are efficient, that there's no performance advantage that we can obtain via publicly available information - that's what the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (Type II efficiency) says. If one does not basically believe that, this forum is not the right place for you. I completel...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 58
Views: 4539

Re: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky

Has been very low, you mean. The thing to argue over isn't the details of past default performance of muni's. It's the relevance to the future situation of heavier reliance of municipal issuers on stock performance than anything seen in the past, for investors counting on munis to be the safe backs...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 507
Views: 83027

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

And, no, people like me who don't invest internationally because of these reasons aren't experiencing cognitive dissonance. From wikipedia: In the field of psychology, cognitive dissonance is the mental discomfort (psychological stress) experienced by a person who simultaneously holds two or more c...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 507
Views: 83027

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Perhaps my conclusion wasn't worded as precisely as it could have been. I'm not saying one bad apple ruins the bunch. I'm saying it's hard to sometimes see which apples are bad, and that some are possibly more rotten than is being admitted. (That's about as far as I can stretch that metaphor, sorry...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ownership in family business
Replies: 6
Views: 533

Re: Ownership in family business

I built a business from scratch over the last 35+ years and still love going to work every day. I am in great health, active in the business, and my current plan is to continue for another 5-10 years. One of my 3 kids joined my practice 7 years ago and is thriving. My other two are professionals in...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Money Market vs Bonds
Replies: 7
Views: 1426

Re: Money Market vs Bonds

Hi I have some cash that I may need for home improvements in the next year or two, so I don't want to put it in equities. I was thinking of putting in my Vanguard Money Market, but now am wondering if its would be better to put it in a Vanguard bond ETF (perhaps tax-exempt, as I am in the highest t...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lots of Newbie bond questions
Replies: 13
Views: 1125

Re: Lots of Newbie bond questions

Hello, I have been searching for a bit for some of these questions but could not find a thread that seemed to answer them. If I missed one, I apologize. It would be great if you could point me to it. Anyways, my questions: 1) I am curious about how the Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund works. In part...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to buy/lease an electric or hybrid?
Replies: 7
Views: 730

Re: Time to buy/lease an electric or hybrid?

Note: For now, I'm just considering the monthly/yearly costs. The reliability, safety, and most importantly HOV sticker may be the deciding factor to push me over the hill and get me out of my 14 year old Toyota ;) :sharebeer My gut is the window for HOVs will close? The real cost for most Californ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can someone explain what's going on [with the stock market]?
Replies: 61
Views: 6553

Re: Can someone explain what's going on..........

Hello: With the stock market ????? I know that usually october is a shaking month,but it keeps going DOWN.Please explain if you know. Many thanks in advance,parigi. There is no way of knowing if this is the beginning of a bear market, or just a correction. What is happening is the market is getting...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lots of Newbie bond questions
Replies: 13
Views: 1125

Re: Lots of Newbie bond questions

Thank you very much for your response! 1) I am curious about how the Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund works. In particular, does it hold all of its bonds to maturity or does it sell some at different times? If it's the latter, is it possible that the action of selling could trigger a capital gain, t...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How This All Happened (to the US economy)
Replies: 34
Views: 5147

Re: How This All Happened (to the US economy)

Interesting piece, but I feel like it understates the profound effects of economic globalization. Arguably the biggest impacts of globalization have been cultural - that sense of cultural displacement. The dual impacts of the internet making cultural consumption global and instantaneous and air tra...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How This All Happened (to the US economy)
Replies: 34
Views: 5147

Re: How This All Happened (to the US economy)

I really enjoy reading Morgan Housel's blog. The guy is truly an original thinker, always finding new angles on things, while staying deeply rooted in solid common sense. Such a bright guy. This is a short story about what happened to the U.S. economy since the end of World War II. https://www.coll...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How This All Happened (to the US economy)
Replies: 34
Views: 5147

Re: How This All Happened (to the US economy)

Interesting piece, but I feel like it understates the profound effects of economic globalization. Globalization Freer world trade in manufacturing (and services) I think all the studies in the US case point towards it being a [edit big] hit on a relatively small number of manufacturing sectors - bu...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 507
Views: 83027

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Basically it can be summed up as: Bogleheads are hypocrites and don't practice what they preach. "Own the market" indeed. yup. always feel compelled to repeat this whenever I see this topic: Perplexed by how many Bogleheads insist on not picking single stocks to simply take what the market will bea...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 507
Views: 83027

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Why does nobody ever mention taxes?? International stocks would need to outperform in order to get the same return as US stocks. You can't put international stocks in a retirement account otherwise other countries will tax your dividends and you can't do anything about it. If you put them in a taxa...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Indexing Truths, Myths, And Benefits
Replies: 4
Views: 1043

Re: Vanguard: Indexing Truths, Myths, And Benefits

There's only one time I saw indexing potentially cause harm. During the last 12 months or so of the Tech Media Telecoms (TMT) bubble in 1999-2000, I saw a number of situations where managers were petitioning for changes in the rules restricting them to a maximum of 10% in any one stock: - Nortel was...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7349

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

If so, how high will they go? With stocks, people say don't time the market but with CDs most are saying to stick with 1 year at 2.8% vs 5 years at 4%. Isn't this timing the market and why not take the sure thing 4%? https://www.connexuscu.org/accounts/share-certificates/ I'm thinking of putting 50...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7349

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

If it made sense at one point in time, why would it not make sense today? Yes, the yield curve changes, but that's why such rules-of-thumb are useful; they provide guidance under a broad array of possibilities. The world changes. Just last year I sold my horse. Next year we may only have Uber. :win...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Indexing Truths, Myths, And Benefits
Replies: 4
Views: 1043

Re: Vanguard: Indexing Truths, Myths, And Benefits

https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-industry-perspective/vanguard-indexing-truths-myths-and-benefits?EXCMPGN=EX:PC:FAS:Sustaining Some people worry that indexing distorts markets or makes price discovery less efficient. This paper has some interesting statistics to relieve those fears. About 15% of th...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How This All Happened (to the US economy)
Replies: 34
Views: 5147

Re: How This All Happened (to the US economy)

Thanks for the read. I enjoyed it. I’ve often wondered if we could turn back the clock on income equality, what impact it would have on the country. Have you heard of a (prosperous) civilization that had income equality? Neither have I. :beer Straw man. No one is saying absolute equality is either ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How This All Happened (to the US economy)
Replies: 34
Views: 5147

Re: How This All Happened (to the US economy)

I wonder if this article was inspired by Ray Dalios perspective. Both focus on debt cycles and say the economic/political outlook is reminiscent of the 1930s. Both also seem to imply the possibility of a very dark period for the world similar to the late 30s and early 40s before we come out the oth...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 58
Views: 4539

Re: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-munis-increasingly-risky?nopaging=1 State and local pension liabilities are rising, government return assumptions are precariously optimistic (don’t make assumptions like these for your own retirement!), and default may not be so taboo anym...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise of Passive Investing - Are we missing something?
Replies: 18
Views: 2830

Re: The Rise of Passive Investing - Are we missing something?

One thing I might imagine is that if the market becomes more reliant on passive investing, smaller companies might find it hard to find capital. The level of capital available to companies today is unprecedented. And I'm talking about smaller companies that are not public yet, and might never be. T...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise of Passive Investing - Are we missing something?
Replies: 18
Views: 2830

Re: The Rise of Passive Investing - Are we missing something?

The world is going passive when it comes to investing. The percentage of assets in a passive index trackers vs active funds is growing every year. The reason I mention this. Does anyone see any dangers with this? One thing I might imagine is that if the market becomes more reliant on passive invest...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 507
Views: 83027

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

It's a red herring to think a U.S. index fund isn't already "international". It's full of giant multi-national companies that may trade on a U.S. market, and conform to U.S. regulatory requirements, but more than a handful of S&P 500 index constituents aren't even headquartered in the U.S. There ar...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comment from Bogleheads book about future market gains
Replies: 10
Views: 1271

Re: Comment from Bogleheads book about future market gains

Wow, thanks so much to each of you for your quick, kind, and thorough replies! I am certainly glad to be a new part of your online community. Mr. Larimore and Mr. Lindauer, I scoured the book again yesterday to try to find the instance(s) in which it referred to future gains not likely being as hig...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: sell rental condo 6 miles from Crystal City, VA Amazon location?
Replies: 36
Views: 3659

Re: sell rental condo 6 miles from Crystal City, VA Amazon location?

It seems unlikely DC area real estate will appreciate like Seattle real estate did. Seattle real estate started from a much lower base and there was a MUCH larger influx of high paying jobs than what DC is likely to get out of this. It is the expensive cities seem to get more expensive, rather than...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund Portfolio Modification
Replies: 7
Views: 872

Re: 3-fund Portfolio Modification

After tinkering with the often-suggested Boglehead 3-fund portfolio, it became apparent that replacing the international portion with a more modest portion of small cap value (VIOV), but in about a 5:1 ratio with S&P500 (VOO) provides a better historical result (by a long shot) with plenty of diver...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: UK total beginner book
Replies: 8
Views: 529

Re: UK total beginner book

Thanks all. It's an uphill struggle... I thought I'd start him with some of Lars' youtube videos (for a quick and easy introduction), but got the response 'thanks, but I don't even know what an equity portfolio is' :oops: Equities are shares, or stocks as Americans call them (hence "stock market")....
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I sell some rental properties?
Replies: 4
Views: 643

Re: Should I sell some rental properties?

I am in the UK and I have about 40% of my net worth in rental properties (most in the south of England (Southampton and Bournemouth) and some in Cambridge). Now the Guardian reports that prices have begun to fall for the first time since the crisis https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/nov/19/uk-h...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 18, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How best to implement Dollar Cost Averaging in the UK?
Replies: 6
Views: 241

Re: How best to implement Dollar Cost Averaging in the UK?

I've been reading (and trying my best to understand) Benjamin Graham's: The Intelligent Investor, as many people have recommended it to me - and have decided to start get into investing with the following Dollar Cost Averaging strategy: Graham's example is a monthly investment of $500 split across:...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 18, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How best to implement Dollar Cost Averaging in the UK?
Replies: 6
Views: 241

Re: How best to implement Dollar Cost Averaging in the UK?

Thank you so much for such a detailed reply - saved me a great deal time and confusion by laying everything out so clearly - I really appreciate that! And will certainly be checking out all of those links and recommended books I'm also going to look into the LISA mentioned. My gf and I were origina...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 18, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea
Replies: 88
Views: 7546

Re: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea

That said, as a rule an SPIA is NOT going to be a very efficient purchase for someone who is 45 years old. In the vast majority of scenarios, they really only make sense if purchased between the ages of 65 and 80. That's just the nature of the product. Why? An SPIA is, conceptually, a bundle of two...
by Valuethinker
Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comment from Bogleheads book about future market gains
Replies: 10
Views: 1271

Re: Comment from Bogleheads book about future market gains

Greetings, Bogleheads, my name is Casey and this is officially my first post/question. I am an Air Force colonel stationed overseas with my family. I just finished reading The Bogleheads Guide to Investing, and a few times in the book (I wish I could find where) it mentions that we probably won't e...
by Valuethinker
Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Old prospectuses
Replies: 3
Views: 320

Re: Old prospectuses

Anyone know where I could find a copy of a, say, 10-year-old prospectus for Wellington, for example? Is there an archive somewhere? Besides the company's website, and googling for the fund and the prospectus (sometimes documents are not indexed on the site) then SEC filings are at EDGAR. Not terrib...
by Valuethinker
Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 112
Views: 13036

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

No one knows exactly but I'd be hesitant to call this real estate cycle a bubble, just because the last one did turn out to be a "bubble." There tends to be a cycle in these things. I would say the periodicity is at least 20 years. It is possible now we are in a tech bubble because those who were m...