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by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling Timber
Replies: 27
Views: 1663

Re: Selling Timber

Bwlonge wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2018 4:05 pm
Maybe I'll buy a timber ETF.

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239 ... restry-etf

I've thought about owning a Christmas tree farm. I should look into that again.
If you go back a few years, we discussed the options for investing in Timber stocks in great detail.
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Speculating on natural disaster players/sectors
Replies: 5
Views: 247

Re: Speculating on natural disaster players/sectors

I know this isn't a bogleheads thing.. but given predictions of worsening climate change and natural disasters, is anybody throwing 5-10% into sector funds or companies that stand to gain? Timber (WOOD) has outperformed the total market in this run up, maybe due to demand for all the rebuilding hav...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected return of US vs International, basic question
Replies: 18
Views: 550

Re: Expected return of US vs International, basic question

Oh, and by the way, Emerging Markets Index is at 16.3 PE and 11.1% earnings growth rate. So both cheaper and faster growing than the US. But perceived risk is higher too. How much discount does one need to take the higher risk? It's the weighting in China in that, and in particular Tencent and Alib...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected return of US vs International, basic question
Replies: 18
Views: 550

Re: Expected return of US vs International, basic question

I have read on this forum and elsewhere that international is expected to outperform the US over the next decade. If that were true, why wouldn't people sell their US stocks and buy international? Shouldn't that happen, which would increase the price of foreign stocks and decrease the price of US s...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 57
Views: 8094

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

My current portfolio. DOMESTIC LARGE CAP: 18.96% DOMESTIC SMALL CAP: 11.25% DEVELOPED EX-US LARGE CAP: 10.3% DEVELOPED EX-US SMALL CAP: 13.02% EMERGING/FRONTIER: 15.81% HEALTHCARE: 14.89% INTERNET: 9.94% Just gonna sit back and watch this baby run for the next 40 years. Might want to rethink the in...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $12,000 Refrigerator? [Looking in $7k price range]
Replies: 26
Views: 2102

Re: $12,000 Refrigerator?

For a high end built-in refrigerator I'd go with Subzero, Miele, Thermador, or Bosch (most built in models of the last 3 brands are built on the same assembly line in Turkey). Interesting. What's the company that builds them in Turkey? Like Foxconn in China for phones? Bosch is a separate company f...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 132
Views: 7522

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

not saying OP feels this way, but from so many posts on insurance, i get the feeling people generally think that insurance is a rip off. its my understanding that with commodity insurance, such as home, auto, life, the rates are incredibly competitive. there is a low barrier to entry in the commodi...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: To buy or not to buy in Boston for Investment
Replies: 12
Views: 746

Re: To buy or not to buy in Boston for Investment

Hello: Married couple with a good salary and maxed out all our retirement, started a post tax account with 2K a month as well as putting money for kids in 529. Have a primary mortgage which is less than 10% of our take home salary. We decided to look for a nice second home/ investment. We have foun...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: To buy or not to buy in Boston for Investment
Replies: 12
Views: 746

Re: To buy or not to buy in Boston for Investment

The Globe says that Metro population increase (driving recent price increases) is decelerating. https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2017/03/29/greater-boston-population-growth-cooling/I7nxTrtp05fdpS1UtRuwpL/story.html I grew up there, still have family there, and frankly don't see it as an appeali...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vancouver Vacation (Canada)
Replies: 10
Views: 575

Re: Vancouver Vacation (Canada)

Taking a family vacation to Vancouver Canada this summer. Anyone had good fun ideas for things to do for a family of 5? Kids all younger than 6. We will be staying on the north side of the city near Capilano Lake and will have a rental car for transportation. Looking for recommended restaurants, da...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vancouver Vacation (Canada)
Replies: 10
Views: 575

Re: Vancouver Vacation (Canada)

Stanley Park, Vancouver Aquarium inside the Stanley park Grouse Mountain, The UBC anthropology mueseum. It’s a pretty small mueseum. Granville Island Gastown, avoid the nearby downtown eastside, unless you want to witness a drug deal going on. There are many very high quality Asian restaurants in V...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yields Spreads and the Economy
Replies: 6
Views: 598

Re: Yields Spreads and the Economy

Anyone follow this trend? Like the yield curve inversion, the "spread" (difference in yield) between US treasuries and non-Investment grade corporations can be an indicator (leading?) of the economy. I am not sure how well this works globally; I am only familiar with the U.S. in this regard. In cas...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?
Replies: 19
Views: 2758

Re: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?

-100% for some smaller modern economies, and major historical nations. Thankfully, stock risk is bounded at - 100% so limits investor risk. WW1 and WW2 periods were over - 70% for many major European countries. Japan in 1980s, Argentina since 1900, a range of emerging market economies. Anyone looki...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short treasuries or short term bond index fund?
Replies: 13
Views: 748

Re: Short treasuries or short term bond index fund?

Hello all, Given the fact that the fed is going to raise interest rates through the year, I'm trying to figure out for my short term bond allocation in my portfolio, why I wouldn't just hold short term t-bills in my vanguard account rather than holding a short term bond index fund like VSCSX or VFS...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: World Travelers: What's the local economy look like?
Replies: 10
Views: 982

Re: World Travelers: What's the local economy look like?

For many funds, financial institutions, and wealthy individuals, the perception is that the world’s financial centers are the places to be. After all, world-class cities like New York, London, and Hong Kong will never go out of style, and their extremely robust and high-density city centers limit t...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling Timber
Replies: 27
Views: 1663

Re: Selling Timber

I am absolutely fascinated by this thread (and I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that there are experts on this forum who know the answers). I would love to get some insight from others who have done this before. It has always been a fantasy of mine to buy a large remote plot of land, with a small...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Really need an advice: sell the house or rent it out
Replies: 31
Views: 1565

Re: Really need an advice: sell the house or rent it out

If this is an investment/ money decision then sell. The hassles of home ownership especially in a different metropolitan area are significant. The only reason to hold onto the property is you expect to return to Metro DC area, like the location, and are afraid you will not have financial capital to ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: World Travelers: What's the local economy look like?
Replies: 10
Views: 982

Re: World Travelers: What's the local economy look like?

World travelers; what are you seeing regarding the local economy where you are? Are you seeing new construction, help wanted signs, etc? We recently returned from Panama City - on the way to the airport I saw eight high-rise cranes in one small section of the city. A three-bedroom condo costs appro...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: World Travelers: What's the local economy look like?
Replies: 10
Views: 982

Re: World Travelers: What's the local economy look like?

London UK housing prices are down at least 10% since their peak in 2016. Luxury developments marketed to foreign buyers (particularly Far Eastern) e.g. around the new US Embassy in Battersea, have done particularly poorly. Housing prices in commuter towns (which are actually still affordable for fir...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Inflation Works (NYT)
Replies: 21
Views: 2094

Re: How Inflation Works (NYT)

How Inflation Works -- or Why Your Chicken Is Going to Cost More https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/14/business/economy/inflation-prices.html Very nice explanation - clear examples. Its not an academic whitepaper - its an article that is very understandable. My eyes did not gloss over - a ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Inflation Works (NYT)
Replies: 21
Views: 2094

Re: How Inflation Works (NYT)

I skimmed the article, while much is true it really ignores the monetary underpinnings of inflation. Ultimately inflation is a monetary phenomenon of more money chasing the same amount of goods and services. Most of those things don’t happen unless combined with an expansionary money supply. Howeve...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 183
Views: 22275

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

What little real-world exposure to cryptocurrencies there has been in the form of Bitcoin "ATMs" has been to Bitcoin. They don't AFAIK dispense Ether or Dogecoin. FALSE . Please perform a simple Google search on this topic. Lightning Network is as centralized and trust-based as PayPal. FALSE . Plea...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 15894

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

Sp500 dropped 4.5% moments ago, if that's not blood in the water, I don't know what is - only several times in history has the market dropped more in a day. I'm not saying that it's actionable, only that there's blood in the water. Edit: Dow dropped 600 points in 5 minutes and recovered 500 in the ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Niagara falls US side
Replies: 27
Views: 1601

Re: Niagara falls US side

Yes, you now need a passport to cross the border. Stay on the US side or you could run into immigration problems. Gill Actually, unless there's been a recent change you do not need a passport if you have your green card. Here's what I read: "U.S. Lawful Permanent Residents may use their I-551 ("Gre...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Banks Worthless [to invest equity in]?
Replies: 32
Views: 2743

Re: Are Banks Worthless?

"Unlevered" bank assets? There is no unlevered bank I know of. Banks are a great business, that is why there are so many and they spring up like weeds. No other business literally creates money. A peer to peer lender is in principle unlevered. Also there are now some business lending vehicles (most...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Genius Needed -- Thoughts on My Asset Allocation? [UK]
Replies: 26
Views: 1443

Re: Genius Needed -- Thoughts on My Asset Allocation? [UK]

Thank you. I am starting to realize that a lot of what I had considered to be very sensible decisions previously may not have been so. @Valuethinker: I agree, I have a home country bias for the wrong country :-) I work mainly with the US, so I likely have a greater affinity than most Brits! If it's...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I creating an issue? [tax lots with many periodic contributions]
Replies: 21
Views: 1237

Re: Am I creating an issue?

I do it for a totally non-scientific reason of "it makes me feel better." It gives me a greater chance of not buying on the high, but the math probably doesn't support me making any more money off of it. The consensus is that I should buy twice a month instead of 8-10 times per month? Simplify. Do ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HELP with alternatives
Replies: 3
Views: 224

Re: HELP with alternatives

Perhaps if you changed the title of your post you might get more feedback?

Something like "Laid off, choices re 401k loan and rollover - Help Requested" ?
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leaving HCOL state for financial reasons
Replies: 48
Views: 4828

Re: Leaving HCOL state for financial reasons

I'm interested in hearing from people who have made big moves for cost of living purposes. Was it worth it? Do you have regrets? I work in biglaw (3rd year associate, not contemplating leaving biglaw currently but who knows long term) and DW is in education. We live in a (very) HCOL coastal city wh...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air Source Heat Pump as hedge against future expenses
Replies: 13
Views: 936

Re: Air Source Heat Pump as hedge against future expenses

Bottom line: reducing heating demand is a win-win, and you should shop carefully for the right tech when your existing heating system gets old and creaky. And to correctly size a HP, you have to have done the demand reduction programme first. Otherwise you wind up oversized and with significantly l...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two Foreign Currency Questions
Replies: 11
Views: 526

Re: Two Foreign Currency Questions

I should call Fidelity to fully understand. They do not charge to hold the CHF, I have held a very small amount there the past 3 years and have never been charged. Which makes me wonder if I am really holding CHF. I would be covered by SIPC insurance for my holdings I believe, no different from my ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Genius Needed -- Thoughts on My Asset Allocation? [UK]
Replies: 26
Views: 1443

Re: Genius Needed -- Thoughts on My Asset Allocation? [UK]

Thank you for your incredible reply, @Valuethinker. Don't worry about the taxation and pension side of things. I've got all of that covered. The long story short of your (and @ChicagoBear's) post is... "Just own the world" :-) Now that's a proposition I can get behind, haha :D It sounds like you'd ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two Foreign Currency Questions
Replies: 11
Views: 526

Re: Two Foreign Currency Questions

Thank you. I will read through these links. iShares has an SMI 25 index ETF, EWL. I own a small amount of this. Why Everbank over a holding Swiss Francs at Fidelity? I supposed I get the FDIC at Everbank and maybe a slightly better exchange rate...maybe. But I already have a Fidelity account. Can y...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two Foreign Currency Questions
Replies: 11
Views: 526

Re: Two Foreign Currency Questions

https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/opening-a-bank-account-in-switzerland https://www.everbank.com/currencies/swiss-franc https://www.premiumswitzerland.com/financial-news/banking/accounts-for-us-citizens.htm http://www.citibank.com/ipb/europe/manage/multicurrency.htm (google unfortunately directs me t...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two Foreign Currency Questions
Replies: 11
Views: 526

Re: Two Foreign Currency Questions

Second, separate issue - I plan on visiting Switzerland quite often in the future and I want to build wealth / maintain purchasing power in Swiss Francs. What is the best, most cost effective way to do this? I can buy Swiss Francs at Fidelity for a 1% spread either side of the trade. Seems like a g...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air Source Heat Pump as hedge against future expenses
Replies: 13
Views: 936

Re: Air Source Heat Pump as hedge against future expenses

Also live in the PNW. Home in midValley Oregon where summers can a few weeks of 90-105 but dry heat. Winters rarely to 25. We have gas and heatpump. Heatpump is 35+ years old works great for cooing but heats poorly at 45-40 (most winter day & nights), and negligible below 40. The backup electric re...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air Source Heat Pump as hedge against future expenses
Replies: 13
Views: 936

Re: Air Source Heat Pump as hedge against future expenses

https://energy.gov/eere/femp/purchasing-energy-efficient-residential-air-source-heat-pumps A major issue with installing such systems is a tendency to oversize. That can significantly reduce comfort especially on the AC side, system cycles too much. A contractor needs to do a proper "Manual J" I thi...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air Source Heat Pump as hedge against future expenses
Replies: 13
Views: 936

Re: Air Source Heat Pump as hedge against future expenses

Hi I've done a budget of projected spending in retirement. My mortgage will paid in full in a few years and my next biggest expense (besides property taxes which I can't avoid) are heating costs. I'm thinking of installing an ASHP while I have the money to do so, as a hedge against rising costs, si...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?
Replies: 5
Views: 586

Re: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?

Since reaching a peak in 1997, the number of listed firms in the U.S. has fallen in every year but one. During this same period, public firms have been net purchasers of $3.6 trillion of equity (in 2015 dollars) rather than net issuers. The propensity to be listed is lower across all firm size grou...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Drop - A Perspective (2.6.18)
Replies: 12
Views: 2565

Re: Market Drop - A Perspective (2.6.18)

wrongfunds wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:44 pm
when is the bitcoin perspective coming?
A highly diversifying asset, should be part of any well diversified portfolio ;-).
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?
Replies: 19
Views: 770

Re: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?

... because the FAANGs have done well - Facebook Apple Amazon Netscape Google. Net flix . You are showing your age. :-) [ Net scape effectively evaporated in the great tech cull of '99. I was working there at the time. It was... strange. ] Busted ;-). Well, you know, it could have been Netscape ;-)...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?
Replies: 19
Views: 770

Re: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?

Hello Bogleteers :-) I'm pouring my life savings into the stock market, as I liquidate two-dozen properties I own outright. OK if you own them without mortgages, then you must have c. £4.8m of property. Unless they are well outside the South East-- I mean really outside. At the average London price...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?
Replies: 19
Views: 770

Re: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?

So... I guess the question is... Is there one perfect (ha!) equity that combines ALL markets in the respective percentages, which adheres to Bogle principles (ie, weighted toward US), which is also GBP hedged? Oh Holy Grail! Where art thou! :oops: 8-) https://www.justetf.com/uk/find-etf.html?index=...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?
Replies: 19
Views: 770

Re: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?

Hello Bogleteers :-) I'm pouring my life savings into the stock market, as I liquidate two-dozen properties I own outright. I originally planned to spread my index money funds into: FTSE UK All Share Index FTSE Developed World ex-UK Index S&P 500 (Hedged) I'm a big Bogle fan and love his Little Boo...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds - YTM vs Coupon
Replies: 2
Views: 237

Re: Bonds - YTM vs Coupon

Question about this, I see on Vanguard's site that VBTLX has a Coupon of 3.03% and a Yield To Maturity as 2.7%. Now, i've read that the coupon payment is the current interest rate that is paid because it's based on the fixed coupon paid by the bond holder right? Does this mean the interest distribu...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bitcoin is my potential pension"
Replies: 54
Views: 7794

Re: "Bitcoin is my potential pension"

A sucker is born every minute. If only. You're a wild eyed optimist. By at least 2 orders of magnitude. Suggesting (a la Kahneman and Tversky but also evolutionary psychology) that it had some survival value in our prehistoric past-- for some individuals in the group to be rash gamblers with much w...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation vs Cost of Living vs M2 vs Reality
Replies: 5
Views: 453

Re: Inflation vs Cost of Living vs M2 vs Reality

Question coming from a financial caveman - I decided to bump up the expected inflation variable in our retirement plan spreadsheet to see how this would change our anticipate retirement date. This triggered an email from both of our CFP's who asked why. I wrote back that I don't think inflation num...