Search found 34067 matches

by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Eurobonds
Replies: 2
Views: 90

Re: Investing in Eurobonds

Some of my money is in Ally savings which has the highest interest rate for savings 1.75% and there is no penalty in early withdrawals So the risk is zero there but I was willing to increase the risk just a bit not much and invest in something else and earn more maybe 2-3% at most I found Eurobonds...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 116
Views: 10390

Re: Why International again?

The debate centers around whether international is necessary rather than whether it is a poor investment. It provides further diversification, but it does require additional analysis in order to incorporate another fund in one's portfolio. Occam's Razor supports adopting the simplest explanation th...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 32
Views: 2946

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

I don't know what you are talking about. I have not taken a vacation to any of these places or anything remote in last several years and my HH income is way over the median U.S income and so is my net worth. I feel poor reading the responses to threads like - can I retire with $4 million in assets ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index
Replies: 8
Views: 473

Re: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index

Thank you Valuethinker real helpful again which is very much appreciated. As with Vanguard the fund I am looking at is www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/vanguard-uk-long-duration-gilt-index-fund-gbp-gross-accumulation-shares/overview?intcmpgn=fixedincomeuk_uklongdurationgiltindexfund_fund_link...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 34
Views: 1389

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

Yes.. Now we just have to find real world examples. i'd be interesting in knowing if the volatility theory holds up. And how it's correlated with the long term trend (e.g. maximum drops). I guess it wouldn't be too difficult to get a rough graph on a spreadsheet In the meantime, I guess I can do: 1...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 4681

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

Lack_ey, I agree that the shape of the BTOP50 index looks more like some kind of continuous, smooth slowdown, not a corner at 2007. I'm not quite sure what the BTOP50 Index is; these don't seem to be mutual funds: AlphaGen Capital Limited (Long Short Agriculture Fund AlphaSimplex Group, LLC (Manage...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to Include Emerging Markets in the Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 557

Re: Want to Include Emerging Markets in the Portfolio

This is our first time to finally get out of credit card debt and fully contribute to our retirement. 1. I am wanting to add Emerging Markets (VEMAX) to the portfolio. Is there too much overlap if I use VTIAX and VEMAX and split 50/50 for international? That looks like a very significant overweight...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 34
Views: 1389

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

Euro (government) bonds have currently a very low return, and do carry risk related to some countries. De to this, Euro investors are often advised on guys forum to invest in global bonds hedged to the Euro (addicts affect through diversification) or in government insured savings accounts (this add...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 34
Views: 1389

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

Thanks FATCA! If you look at some euro ETFs (like FXE), I see std is 8-10%. Thus, it would seem stupid trying to use invest in something with more volatility than that ( like BND) I still want to use bonds to balance my portfolio. What is the best strategy? My thoughts: - Hedge my whole portfolio (...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 34
Views: 1389

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

Struggling with this as well. Have 75% of assets in the US. 80/20 stock/bond. Earning in host country currency. The 25% of assets in host country are tied up in CDs (at 5.5%) and a monthly payment on a property that will most likely be delivered in 2020 at 0%. I have been thinking recently to put 1...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment question...
Replies: 10
Views: 498

Re: Investment question...

I just received a pension buyout offer consisting of the following options. 1. 200k lump sum. Which I'd roll into my Total Stock Market (VTSAX) IRA fund (current value ~1.1mm) 2. $1350 single life (non-COLA'ed) annuity that begins on 65th birthday. (I'm currently 58) I'm interested in hearing the g...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Window blinds to cut costs?
Replies: 8
Views: 1246

Re: Window blinds to cut costs?

Moved into our house last summer in DC/MD area so temps are usually 85-100* with humidity. Over the summer our electric bill (all electric for cooking and hot water ) was $150-170 so really I think that's pretty good. House is 1200 sq ft that faces south and has a ton of double pane windows facing ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Corporate Leveling
Replies: 22
Views: 2159

Re: Corporate Leveling

I’ve worked for several places where corporate leveling has happened. Never heard of anyone being offered a pay cut, though. Usually, pay grades have really wide salary bands, so they slot you where you fit and leave your salary the same. If you get slotted into a grade where your salary is near th...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review and Advice Sought for UK Investor
Replies: 11
Views: 817

Re: Portfolio Review and Advice Sought for UK Investor

. Project your current pension balance forwards to retirement at 4% real growth (say) and compare with £1MM, and you might be surprised, and that is even before you factor in any future contributions. No easy answer, unfortunately. This is a good way to do it. Strictly speaking I think we should st...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review and Advice Sought for UK Investor
Replies: 11
Views: 817

Re: Portfolio Review and Advice Sought for UK Investor

Valuethinker: thank you very much indeed for your careful analysis. I've written some follow-up information below. Any further insight would be very much appreciated. Indexed Linked Gilt yields right now are truly awful (-1.5% real) [...] How long to run? It's an NSI Indexed Linked Gilt ("Granny Bo...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tencent now largest non-US stock
Replies: 15
Views: 1895

Re: Tencent now largest non-US stock

I'm not sure how much we can trust anything reported about a Chinese company. They have the ability to fudge their numbers . And "we" can't--or don't?! The Ten Worst Corporate Accounting Scandals of All Time This is an argument about relative quality of financial reporting. I think we need to be cl...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 78
Views: 4121

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

If the rouble is down but Russia sells oil in dollars isn't that better for them? Just thinking out loud here. Yes but no but yes. If we just assume that the exchange rate is constant, Russia is better off-- its Terms of Trade (ratio of export prices to import prices) have improved. In the same way...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 158
Views: 13642

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

i think it's a tail risk issue, as the entire edifice of Wall St is built on pushing products that hide tail risk, as opposed to bearing it themselves. Inflation adjusted annuities simply don't meet their needs, as opposed that of their customers. Agree. They are always pushing people to look at sh...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index
Replies: 8
Views: 473

Re: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index

First, why gilts? Is your primary currency the UK pound? If so, o.k. If not I would be worried about currency risk. Second, expected increases in bond yields are already priced in. We can dig into this if you want. UK gilts are an odd one. The long gilt is down around 1.4% yield (30 year). There's ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index
Replies: 8
Views: 473

Re: (U.K) Advice sought on Long Term Gilt index

Hi Bogleheads After some initial posting and questions on designing portfolio I settled on more of a slice and dice global portfolio. Because investing for long term 30 odd years. Decided to go 90 percent equities. I have read in few posts and Tim Hales book that for someone with such a high equiti...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New HVAC system
Replies: 15
Views: 1771

Re: New HVAC system

Since your system is so old, you are likely to get a significantly more efficient system even going with the base-efficiency models that are standard these days. You don't use the system that much so maybe that doesn't matter. Do you have a heat-pump system or a normal system? A heat-pump would mak...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Structured Settlement versus cash
Replies: 10
Views: 893

Re: Structured Settlement versus cash

I lost my son in 2016 in an accident. It was a tragic loss to say the least and we have been battling in a wrongful death lawsuit I filed since his passing. We are preparing for mediation this week and my attorney gave me some information regarding taking a structured settlement which is tax free v...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for belgian (Europe) investor
Replies: 74
Views: 6162

Re: Portfolio for belgian (Europe) investor

Sound advice. Thank you for your reply Valuethinker, very informative. Do you have a slice and dice portfolio? Only in the sense that I have several different pensions, ISAs, etc. and therefore what is available to me varies depending on which pot it is in. So I sort of roughly get an asset allocat...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for belgian (Europe) investor
Replies: 74
Views: 6162

Re: Portfolio for belgian (Europe) investor

re Bonds. I prefer global government bonds (Euro hedged) Another follow-up question: as far as I can see there aren't too many options for this, could you tell us which fund you're using? Where I live I've seen an iShares (GILE) fund but it's only available on a small marketplace that isn't practic...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 86
Views: 9522

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

5 problems with this claim: Scalability . Yale has a $27B endowment. It’s large, but not massive. It’s growth is limited because it doesn’t take outside investors, and the only infusions of capital are Yale’s budget surplus and reinvested endowment earnings. As a investment vehicle grows, it return...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?
Replies: 55
Views: 5527

Re: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?

If the pilot is willing to fly on the plane so am I. Even if it's GermanWings Flight 9525? That's the co-pilot who deliberately flew the A-320 into the French Alps while the chief pilot was using the bathroom. There was that one and the Air Egypt one, where it's pretty clear the pilot was trying to...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?
Replies: 55
Views: 5527

Re: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?

There are some emerging market airlines in places like Pakistan that I, or close ones, have flown. Wouldn't want to do that again. Maybe statistically the risk is still small-- but it's got to be 10x the risk of your average North American airline. Objectively still safer than driving, subjectively...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 78
Views: 4121

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

decisions based on tips and fads rather than on thoughtful, quantified evaluation of businesses ; Well investing in Russia is supported by a pretty simple quantitative argument as far as I understand : Russia has a CAPE of about 6 and a P/E of 7, so you will earn 1$/year for every 6-7 $ you invest ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 86
Views: 9522

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

Much of Yale's holdings are in illiquid assets that rarely trade. The valuation must involve a good deal of estimation. I wonder how reliable their reported returns and performance actually are. I once raised that point to the head of a large endowment. He would not look me in the eye, mumbled some...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Higher bond allocations with riskier bonds
Replies: 10
Views: 519

Re: Higher bond allocations with riskier bonds

Historically you have not been rewarded for taking credit risk with bonds. You get higher volatility but not higher returns. That's approximately true when looking at long-term bond returns and not duration matching. If you do a more apples-to-apples comparison, it doesn't seem to be right. I would...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?
Replies: 55
Views: 5527

Re: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?

I think this is sensationalistic selective squeamishness. The most dangerous aspect of flying ANY airline is the drive to the airport, seconded by preparing and eating breakfast before leaving the house. Plus the extra radiation exposure, risk of blood clots, and increased chance of getting sick fr...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If home prices decline but mortgage rates keep rising
Replies: 25
Views: 2588

Re: If home prices decline but mortgage rates keep rising

Bad assumption, not only do home prices sometimes go down a lot but over the very long term like 100 years or more the price appreciation of a specific house is something like negative 100% since the houses will get older and eventually be torn down. In extreme cases the cost of tearing the house d...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?
Replies: 55
Views: 5527

Re: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?

Sounds like the problem is particularly bad with the old MD-80 jets and Allegiant has a bunch of them. Allegiant bought these geezers cheap from foreign airlines that were retiring them. I think I'd avoid flights on these for sure. I flew Allegiant once and one leg was on a new Airbus. I think the ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?
Replies: 55
Views: 5527

Re: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?

If the pilot is willing to fly on the plane so am I. Well I know some pilots that I certainly wouldn't want to fly with. :mrgreen: My understanding is that it is quite competitive to become a pilot at a major airline. Most pilots nowadays have paid for their own educations and have worked for small...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?
Replies: 55
Views: 5527

Re: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?

Value Jet = ValuJet. Flight 592 was downed by the way it's oxygen canisters were loaded on board by SaberTech, a contractor. Not in any way defending Allegiant or ValuJet, just pointing out that aircraft maintenance wasn't behind the 592 crash. You probably read William Langeswische 's article in t...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 86
Views: 9522

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

So Yale could be overstating the value of its funds, where there are unrealized investments in those funds. However eventually the value will converge on the true cash value. Only if they keep putting more money into funds, at overstated valuations for unrealized investments, will this lead to an u...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Higher bond allocations with riskier bonds
Replies: 10
Views: 519

Re: Higher bond allocations with riskier bonds

It seems like you can reasonably compare the risk and returns of a 70/30 portfolio that invests in intermediate-term bonds with a 60/40 portfolio that invests in riskier bonds. Here is a backtest of two portfolios starting in 1974. The first is 70% US total stock market and 30% intermediate-term tr...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 52
Views: 3677

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

Then if investing by global market cap, I would invest in the country with the most public companies (US) but not necessarily in the countries which might have a better potential for growth going forward. An underappreciated point. An argument can be made that the global, cap-weighted index itself ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 52
Views: 3677

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

How did forecasts from 30 years ago turn out? I just had a yearbook/chronic from the early/mid 1980s in my hand. They showed two Lookheed Martin nuclear powered aircraft studies. Prediction was to have them in the air was the year 2000. So there's that. That's very different, though. This is a proj...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If home prices decline but mortgage rates keep rising
Replies: 25
Views: 2588

Re: If home prices decline but mortgage rates keep rising

I've been looking to buy a house but hesitant given how much home prices have skyrocketed in recent years. Article after article says homes are overvalued, could be in a bubble, and "shouldn't" rise as much as they have in recent years (i.e. home values only generally rise with inflation I believe)...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 86
Views: 9522

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

Cherry picking dates helps a lot. The last 20 years starting after 2017 began in Jan. 1998, near the end of the dot com boom in stocks which totally collapsed in March of 2000. The 20 year period chosen for comparison included just the tail end of the tech market skyrocket but it did include all of...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 86
Views: 9522

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

Much of Yale's holdings are in illiquid assets that rarely trade. The valuation must involve a good deal of estimation. I wonder how reliable their reported returns and performance actually are. This is an important point, and it applies to more than just Yale. It also appears that reporting requir...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 86
Views: 9522

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

I suppose it's not surprising, but has anyone questioned how they managed to absolutely trounce the TSM over a 20 year period? Was it through a superior allocation to specific asset classes, was it through stock picking, was it through market timing, etc.? From people who have studied it, the evide...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Yale Endowment Report
Replies: 13
Views: 940

Re: 2017 Yale Endowment Report

The 17% in Venture Capital funds surprised me (repeating myself but in a separate post). VC funds generally have a very poor track record except for the top 10 or so funds. Swensen goes through that. Do they have so much access to those top funds (the implication was they have some, the funds are in...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 52
Views: 3677

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

How did forecasts from 30 years ago turn out? I just had a yearbook/chronic from the early/mid 1980s in my hand. They showed two Lookheed Martin nuclear powered aircraft studies. Prediction was to have them in the air was the year 2000. So there's that. That's very different, though. This is a proj...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Yale Endowment Report
Replies: 13
Views: 940

Re: 2017 Yale Endowment Report

In poker there is a term called fancy play syndrome. That is when a player falls in love with making big and strangely timed bluffs when a simpler, more straight forward strategy would do. Sounds to me like Yale is getting a case of fancy play syndrome. I live in the Dallas area, we have been baili...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Yale Endowment Report
Replies: 13
Views: 940

Re: 2017 Yale Endowment Report

what is "Absolute Return"? how can it be greater than all other asset allocation class returns? Hedge Funds are often defined as "Absolute Return" if they are benchmarked against a target other than equity market returns - or rather if they are benchmarked against the return of e.g. cash or short t...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to pay for 6th year of college?
Replies: 6
Views: 1065

Re: How to pay for 6th year of college?

I think a better option may be for my son to finish a degree in the next two years and then continue with graduate school. There are several schools that offer Master's degrees in his field of interest -- one is a 3-year program, one is a 2-year program, and one is a 12-month program. Certainly a M...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for belgian (Europe) investor
Replies: 74
Views: 6162

Re: Portfolio for belgian (Europe) investor

Dear Bogleheads I have some questions, Lately I've been reading about and researching the slice and dice portfolios by Rick Ferri, David Swensen and Merriman. My current portfolio still is 75/25 stocks and bonds in the following allocation: Msci world IWDA 56,25% Emerging markets EMIM 7,5% World sm...