Search found 36548 matches

by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?
Replies: 40
Views: 2497

Re: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?

I don't think anyone in his/her early 30s should even consider bonds. OP is planning to retire c. age 50. That's like an average person retiring at 65. They also have a significant need for cash in 6-8 years as a downpayment on the house. They either ringfence that money now and keep it in safe gov...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing and Paying down Debt
Replies: 9
Views: 726

Re: Investing and Paying down Debt

Here is a yet another Investing vs Pay down debt (mortgage). My primary concern is liquidity in case of a job loss. To achieve this I was planning to invest in municipal bond fund. Our details: Federal Tax as % of Income: 22.84%; Tax Bracket: 32% State Tax Bracket: 6.4% I am aware I will be charged...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?
Replies: 40
Views: 2497

Re: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?

Questions I’m currently at 80% stocks/20% bonds but thinking of increasing to either 85% stocks or 90% stocks. I plan on retiring in 20 years and maybe buying a house in 6-8 years. Looking for advice on whether I should increase my stock allocation or stick with 80% stocks. Stats Emergency funds: y...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long until we see negative ER funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2332

Re: How long until we see negative ER funds?

Fine people that they are at Vanguard, they do not work for free. Other firms work for more and have shareholder profits and taxes to pay as well. In short, it is not free, let alone negative cost, to run an index fund. This should be obvious, even with some minor securities lending revenue which p...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...
Replies: 77
Views: 7991

Re: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...

That barrista in San Francisco has to be paid a premium wage so they can afford to (just about) live in SF Bay area. Prices move but so does quality. The car $20k buys you now bears no comparison to the Mercedes 20k bought you in 1980 - the 20k car now is far safer and is (interestingly) much highe...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dispersion says we’re close to a value cycle (BoAML)
Replies: 5
Views: 875

Re: Dispersion says we’re close to a value cycle (BoAML)

Even if this analysis has more behind it than you happened to post (i.e. How accurately has dispersion predicted cycle changes in the past - ok, strong negative correlation, but correlations can change, and in the world of investing typically do, no? Is there any reason to expect mean reversion sho...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government shutdown and US Treasuries
Replies: 9
Views: 1453

Re: Government shutdown and US Treasuries

The time to worry about Treasuries is when it looks like the government won't raise the debt ceiling (I think that deadline is about a month or two away). In theory what you could get is a technical default on short term US Treasury debt - prices plunge. Meanwhile the market, expecting the problem ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government shutdown and US Treasuries
Replies: 9
Views: 1453

Re: Government shutdown and US Treasuries

I've been wondering what effect this prolonged Government shutdown will have on US Treasuries? Nothing. Matured debt are still being paid out exactly as promised. Auctions for new debt are still happening. Isn't there a limit to government's ability to borrow? Without a congress authorization, can ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wrong about international bonds?
Replies: 26
Views: 2382

Re: Wrong about international bonds?

Bogle and Buffett both agreed there is no reason to have international stocks in our portfolio. BH wiki mentions diversification is one of the reasons to hold international stocks in the three-fund portfolio. Along that theory, have some international bonds for diversification. Buffett owns several...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government shutdown and US Treasuries
Replies: 9
Views: 1453

Re: Government shutdown and US Treasuries

US Treasuries are considered one of the safest investments in the world. I've been wondering what effect this prolonged Government shutdown will have on US Treasuries? Will the market lose faith and not consider them as safe any more? Edit: Typo. If the US had a technical default on debt it would b...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing and Paying down Debt
Replies: 9
Views: 726

Re: Investing and Paying down Debt

Here is a yet another Investing vs Pay down debt (mortgage). My primary concern is liquidity in case of a job loss. To achieve this I was planning to invest in municipal bond fund. Our details: Federal Tax as % of Income: 22.84%; Tax Bracket: 32% State Tax Bracket: 6.4% I am aware I will be charged...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any MD pursued a CFA? Thoughts?
Replies: 13
Views: 1216

Re: Any MD pursued a CFA? Thoughts?

Any physicians out there pursued a CFA charter holder? I am a practicing physician in early/mid career and truly enjoy my job (not looking for an escape from medicine). I see myself happily practicing for another 20+ years. However, I am a little bored and want to dive into something else. I have g...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?
Replies: 63
Views: 4200

Re: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?

investing and gambling are synonymous. I [invested / gambled] on this house I [invested / gambled] on this index fund I [invested / gambled] on buying a business when people here say "gamble" , it is uniformly part of a rationalization. So you truly think there is no way to discern risk? Then I ass...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wrong about international bonds?
Replies: 26
Views: 2382

Re: Wrong about international bonds?

I think there can be an argument for some allocation to non-FX hedged relatively higher quality EM govt local currency bonds, as a *risk asset* not a safe asset, but that's another topic. 2 possible issues with that? 1. "if it's not 10% it's not a bet" and won't have a big impact on final portfolio...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:00 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Australian Chapter ?
Replies: 16
Views: 3775

Re: Australian Chapter ?

The Falcon wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:51 pm
Just going to bump this one :happy
Andrew9999 is also, I believe, from the antipodean Dominions, living in SE Asia.
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Australian Chapter ?
Replies: 16
Views: 3775

Re: Australian Chapter ?

Any more Sydneysiders hanging around? I know a couple more Boglehead sympathisers on other forums. I'm a Sydneysider. But I think it is an uphill battle to make this forum anything but American-focused and you're better off trying to start an Australian equivalent somewhere else. (I think Canadians...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...
Replies: 77
Views: 7991

Re: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...

Yes. You are out of touch. The entirety of SoCal is out of touch. Come visit the midwest or south and see how many people drive 100k-200k cars or live in million dollar houses. Heck, if I see a CPO Mercedes driving around it requires a double take. You would instantly become one of the flashiest pe...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...
Replies: 77
Views: 7991

Re: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...

I have been retired 11 years from a low six figure job. Always been fiscally conservative, but more along the lines of "tight, not cheap". Bought CPO Mercedes, lowest cost house in the best neighborhood, etc. I live in SoCal, where things are (ahem) a little different. I see 1600 sq ft houses selli...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"
Replies: 18
Views: 1910

Re: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"

Bogleheads: We often hear how college endowment funds enjoy superior returns. I have never heard this. I've heard many people write that they've heard this, but I've never heard it and no one I've ever talked to about this has heard it. Question for the community: have you heard this? I've only hea...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"
Replies: 18
Views: 1910

Re: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"

Stunning. I can already hear the excuses. If it underperformed after 2009, "it shouldn't count because it was such an unusual bull market in stocks." If it underperformed in 2008-2009, "well, for heaven's sake, that was during the Global Financial Crisis" ...etc. The time period selected really doe...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gas station prices and quality
Replies: 77
Views: 7433

Re: Gas station prices and quality

Idle question.

Am I right in thinking New Jersey still has full service gas stations?

That self-service gas is effectively banned in New Jersey? (along, no doubt, with buying liquor* or going to the movies on Sunday?)


* that was Ontario in the 1950s - maybe more recently.
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 189
Views: 11492

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I think the true answer is most people don't care to put in the work or take risks. I guess I can understand that. We have one rental and shopping for another now. You can mitigate some risks by saving and paying cash. We have had a good experience the last 2.5 years so far. We will buy more proper...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wrong about international bonds?
Replies: 26
Views: 2382

Re: Wrong about international bonds?

No. Bonds are for safety. Why would you want to take on currency risk in your safe assets? Or do you want to incur the added cost of currency hedging instead? Looks like the currency hedging is pretty cheap. Dale Pretty much negligible, cost in terms of bid-offer, transactions cost. But if 'cost' i...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Washington State Solar Incentives
Replies: 17
Views: 854

Re: Washington State Solar Incentives

How is solar going to work in Washington state? I assume you mean west of the Cascades, or perhaps places like Sequim. But even then it would seem like the shortened winter daylight hours would make it a poor value at almost any cost. Remember though that also means you have lengthened hours in sum...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping up with inflation?
Replies: 18
Views: 2354

Re: Keeping up with inflation?

Another general question about inflation: can't the central bank straightforwardly keep it under control by raising interest rates? So instead of inflation risk I should mainly be worried about interest rate risk? What caused the fed to take so long in the 70s to raise interest rates as sharply as ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 48
Views: 3850

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

I skimmed the paper. This is a good case-study paper, but it is a poor paper from which to draw any conclusions. 82 repeat sales samples. I repeat: 82 repeat sales samples. To evaluate house price index over 100 years. This is laughable at best. I mean, if they had, say, 82,000 sales samples, I *mi...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?
Replies: 17
Views: 1219

Re: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?

I plan on investing in the Fidelity Total Market Index (FSKAX)(ER 0.02%), Fidelity Total International Index (FTIHX) (ER 0.06%) and Vanguard Total Bond Index (VBTLX) (ER 0.05%) through TD Ameritrade for my HSA investing. I'm debating if adding a microcap index to the above portfolio will offer me a...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Washington State Solar Incentives
Replies: 17
Views: 854

Re: Washington State Solar Incentives

Same boat. I assumed I was in a pretty good area of Washington for solar, but the numbers just don't seem to work out. Honestly the cost of solar 'keeps coming down' but somehow those install quotes never get any lower... The cost of panels is just not the main cost any longer. There's some data ou...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 48
Views: 3850

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

You're correct. I am not okay with negative years. I also don't believe in diversification for the sake of diversification - if it's not getting you to your financial goals. Everyone is told to diversify, is it a surprise many are still working in their 60s (not by choice)? Proving my point, I thin...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forward P/E ratios and subsequent 10-year returns
Replies: 6
Views: 502

Re: Forward P/E ratios and subsequent 10-year returns

Eyeballing the graph, the current forward P/E ratio is predicting a 10-year annualized return of about 9%. Is that what you see? Is there publicly available data on forward P/E ratios? I do hope that the graph is not mixing P/E ratios computed from forward and reported earnings, since earnings esti...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 5189

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

You'll have to store it at home! For most on this board that might mean 10's or 100's of thousands of dollars of gold at home. You'll have to buy a very good and very secret safe. You'll have to do this and tell no one because if even a rumour gets out that the old cranky dude at the end of the blo...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 48
Views: 3850

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

This is a very interesting paper. If rent is all you can expect to get in real terms even in a place like NYC, that should give investors pause. I see price/rent ratios in downtown Seattle is significantly higher than the more outlying areas, meaning the market is expecting more price appreciation ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 48
Views: 3850

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

The Vanguard U.S. REIT (VGSIX) returned -6.11% in 2018. My personal real estate portfolio had a 18% IRR with six figure profits in 2018. So, where did diversification get you? :sharebeer Have you calculated the IIR if you had deadbeat tenant(s) requiring 1000s of dollars in legal fees and several m...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency
Replies: 10
Views: 1083

Re: Cryptocurrency

Why do people still invest in crypto currencies? Is there still potential in this field? When bitcoin soared to $20k there was a flurry of posts here. Go and read those threads and compare them to what the actual outcome was. You will find, I think, that there is a basis for the scepticism here. It...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Super Short Term Bond Risks
Replies: 16
Views: 1393

Re: Super Short Term Bond Risks

I am not sure what Asset-Backed bonds really are and their risk profile? Asset backed bonds are pooled instruments of other smaller loans. Car loans, HELOC, credit card debit, trailer homes, etc. The are like Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), but not. They tend to be safe. Rarely does something lik...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?
Replies: 63
Views: 4200

Re: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?

For anyone who succumbs to what the OP is talking about, go see your doctor. No, I'm serious. If you have behaviour that you cannot control that is detrimental to yourself, you should see your doctor. They can then refer you to a counsellor who is professionally trained and can give you exercises a...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gas station prices and quality
Replies: 77
Views: 7433

Re: Gas station prices and quality

Not gouging at all. Prices went up due to the rise in oil. Expect prices to rise further as we near spring and peak driving season. Happens every year. The multiplicity of gasoline formulations attached to summer driving rules apparently also has something to do with it - the USA is anything but on...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 5189

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

I've been fooling trying to come up with an optimal asset allocation --back testing various portfolios through many different periods. I've noticed my results are almost always improved when I include Gold in my asset allocation at around 5%. By improved I mean less volatility, with almost equivale...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 5189

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

lassevirensghost wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:29 am
I prefer vibranium and adamantium,
Wakanda Forever?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzMzFGgmQOc (T'Challa goes on Jeopardy)
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: James Lee Burke - Nelson Demille
Replies: 6
Views: 549

Re: James Lee Burke - Nelson Demille

A key feature of James Lee Burke is that he writes a series - Detective Robicheaux. If you friend likes series, he may not like free-standing novels. For authors who do both, I read only the series. I like Burke, and also like Michael Connelly, John Lescroart, John Sanford, Robert Parker, Robert Cr...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%
Replies: 31
Views: 4280

Re: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%

I'd be curious if any of these family office strategies beat a simple 60% VTSAX, 40% VBMFX portfolio. I've seen some of the college endowments fail miserably against these many years. I very much doubt it. They would have a hard time justifying their fees with such an allocation. I doubt it as well...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%
Replies: 31
Views: 4280

Re: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%

I'd be curious if any of these family office strategies beat a simple 60% VTSAX, 40% VBMFX portfolio. I've seen some of the college endowments fail miserably against these many years. Here's Yale Endowment Asset Allocation: http://i67.tinypic.com/rsc32w.png Cheers :greedy The percentage in VC funds...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%
Replies: 31
Views: 4280

Re: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%

Private equity is very different from real estate. PE is the private ownership of operating companies around the world. Four years ago I decided to expand my asset allocation to include up to 10% of alternative investments. For me this will include private equity, some VC and perhaps some commercia...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Group holds about $415 million of municipal bonds issued on behalf of PG&E Corp.
Replies: 11
Views: 2493

Re: Vanguard Group holds about $415 million of municipal bonds issued on behalf of PG&E Corp.

I read the article. Perhaps investors should be worried more about the banks that back these bonds. To wit: . . . [A]ll but $2 million of the bonds held by Vanguard are backed by banks that act as buyers of last resort for the securities, insulating the money manager from risk. And later: Such bond...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 5189

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

Any thoughts of real estate in your portfolio instead? In the zombie apocalypse at least you can live on the land. Bernstein suggests *foreign* real estate is the best disaster defense. He observes rich residents of developing countries love to buy real estate in cities like London. It's a great th...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 48
Views: 3850

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

There are better sources out there—maybe the Bernstein book—but my recollection is that historical real estate prices tend to track inflation (or slightly better). See e.g. the following that cites Schiller: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2013/03/real-estate-investment-performance/ Real estate st...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past S&P earnings
Replies: 1
Views: 275

Re: Past S&P earnings

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table https://www.macrotrends.net/1324/s-p-500-earnings-history The first link says that S&P earnings in 1950 were 28.63 but the second link says that S&P earnings in 1950 were 2.84. Are there two different ways of calculating earnings? What’s causing such a h...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 48
Views: 3850

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

I skimmed the paper. This is a good case-study paper, but it is a poor paper from which to draw any conclusions. 82 repeat sales samples. I repeat: 82 repeat sales samples. To evaluate house price index over 100 years. This is laughable at best. I mean, if they had, say, 82,000 sales samples, I *mi...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping up with inflation?
Replies: 18
Views: 2354

Re: Keeping up with inflation?

"Without working in the effects of inflation historic gas prices are hard to interpret." That's true, but way back when (when gas was 18 cents a gallon the year I was born and between 19 and 30 cents when I started driving at 15) they came out and pumped it for you, checked your oil and washed your...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7376

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

...Given that, why would Venezuela be "kicked out" of an index? Shouldn't we rather let "the market" decide whether and how much to invest in Venezuelan companies? Anything else is not a pure market-driven metric... Being "purely market-driven" only makes sense if there is a market . What matters h...