Search found 35513 matches

by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 31
Views: 2413

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

...I think it's just a good reminder to diversify more than the 3 fund. Factors, reinsurance, alt lending, bonds, stocks, etc. and any new products that add additional diversification at a reasonable price with a decent expected return. The tricky bit is 'decent expected return.' I still have some ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 31
Views: 2413

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Valuethinker, my understanding was that the French loss in World War II had much to do with tactics. My understanding is that the French tanks were actually better than the German ones but that the Germans massed their tanks in Armored Divisions whereas the French spread the tanks out among the inf...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 123
Views: 14413

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

All companies that are successful in a given era are market oriented. But IMO like all empires, leaders change or environments change or sometimes even a little luck in timing is off and then we say they are not market oriented. If Sears, GE and the Roman Empire can all stop innovating then we shou...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 31
Views: 2413

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

I mean, who predicted the World Trade center being brought down as the cause of the 2001 crash? While we're debunking myths... I've seen this casually mentioned a few times on this forum, but I don't think there's much evidence to associate 9/11 with a crash. S&P 500 earnings and the value of the i...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 31
Views: 2413

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Nice read by Valuethinker. I've always been interested in WW II history, but couldn't have summed up the war as nicely as he did. I thought the reasons we are Bogleheads is we don't have to worry about that which is unknowable? I don't believe anyone here knows what the next disaster is going to be...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10525

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

At the risk of being called those lovely names again found in this thread above, I genuinely have fundamental disagreements with how certain countries are politically run. Serious concerns related to human rights, individual liberty, self-determination, state interference, corruption, etc., and I f...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 31
Views: 2413

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Good read from Matt Topley about some comments by Jeremy Schwartz https://matttopley.com/topleys-top-ten-october-19-2018/. It's a truism that generals fight the last war and that investors prepare for the last down turn. I think we underestimate the chance of a 1970s type scenario where both bonds ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 3724

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

To be fair, it’s not as if bond yields have no natural level. But the natural level is I think roughly related to gdp growth. Ie I think long term real rates might be some function of long term real gdp growth. And I don’t think that level is lower than it used to be. I respectfully disagree. Aging...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 43
Views: 3818

Re: Corporate politics/culture

I've had some real drag out fights with people on this board telling me I am a chump because I work in this industry and dont make 300k, but I value work-life balance and great culture over the $$$. Cheers :beer I know too many casualties of high powered financial services employers. I also know to...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 43
Views: 3818

Re: Corporate politics/culture

Consultants can provide real insights into market & competitor dynamics. They an go out there and interview customers etc. and identify actual trends and perceived strengths and weaknesses. Also sometimes you get deep specialisms e.g. supply chain and they can provide real insight. On the other han...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 43
Views: 3818

Re: Corporate politics/culture

The thing I shake my head about is all the young 20-somethings who start here in junior roles... who never worked anywhere else. Complain about the silliest things or get focused only on the fact that Google pays more and have no idea how lucky we are. Every generation makes the same mistakes due t...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1185
Views: 97917

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I just looked at the price charge for VEU (Total International Vanguard ETF) and in August 2008 before the Financial Crisis kicked in, the ETF traded in the low 48s. Price today: 48.28. That's more than 10 years of earning nothing other than the dividend. Incredible. And the 48 back in 2008 was alr...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1185
Views: 97917

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Europe + Japan make up about 60% of ex-US. What’s the basis for expecting any kind of significant economic expansion in those areas over the next decade? The US very well may be headed for a dark period, but I wouldn’t look to those areas to save the day. Waiting around mean reversion (which might ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1185
Views: 97917

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I just looked at the price charge for VEU (Total International Vanguard ETF) and in August 2008 before the Financial Crisis kicked in, the ETF traded in the low 48s. Price today: 48.28. That's more than 10 years of earning nothing other than the dividend. The longest comparison (in multiples of 5 y...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1185
Views: 97917

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Europe has not bounced back from the financial crisis as fast as the US, still keeping QE place for a little longer because of it, Chinese economy is not in great shape. I'd have to check but I think recent European GDP growth is actually ahead of USA. You get this 2 speed where the northern tier i...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on consumer staples funds?
Replies: 9
Views: 520

Re: Thoughts on consumer staples funds?

SpringMan wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:04 am
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am
Bogleheads don’t buy sector funds.
Many Bogleheads invest in Vanguard's REIT fund.
REITs are not the same as ordinary stocks. They are more akin to MLPs in fact.

I had a post yesterday on the differences if you search my name and posts last 24 hours.
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Italian crisis: which are more at risk, big banks or big insurance companies?
Replies: 2
Views: 421

Re: Italian crisis: which are more at risk, big banks or big insurance companies?

The yield of Italian govenrment bonds is increasing and apparently hundreds of billions worth of them are owned by banks, as well as by Insurance companies like Assicuarazioni Generali (where retail investors can also invest their money in structured products guaranteeing their capital). I don't kn...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What if your risk tolerance is lower than what's best for your portfolio?
Replies: 38
Views: 2469

Re: What if your risk tolerance is lower than what's best for your portfolio?

Hi, Bogleheads. My AA is 37/63 now, after this slight correction. I lost more than a year's expenses in one week. I just hate losing money, even if it's only paper losses, especially now that I'm semi-retired. (I've lived through bears and recessions and don't panic sell. But my mood goes south.) I...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10525

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

I think you are reading too much into short term news cycle. The potential for any country to grow despite all the technological advances is hugely dependent on how much natural resources are still at it's disposal, Sure like the economy of Singapore (higher GDP per capita than most countries in Eu...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10525

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

How is that possible?? That is not going to happen. They have 4x as many people as us! And in China, they restrict births. To be clear, the birth restrictions in China have been significantly relaxed in recent years. If you want to have 2 or 3 children I don't think they are significant, now. From ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10525

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

India and China are both in the the top 12 countries held in the Vanguard Total Intl Stock Fund, so it isn't hard to invest in them (not counting countless other ETFs/funds). It will become even easier (if it isn't easy enough now) as their economies become larger, more open and more advanced. So f...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Replies: 38
Views: 6993

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

No doubt that hidden debt is a risk for China and we don't know accurately the full extent of the problem. Having said that it's important to recall that the greatest global debt default crisis since the Great Depression originated right under our blind eyes in the USA with the massive financial co...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bitcoin after death...some thoughts to consider
Replies: 10
Views: 1836

Re: Bitcoin after death...some thoughts to consider

If the encryption that bitcoin is based on is brute force cracked by this mythical soon-to-come computing power, the cracking of bitcoin will be dwarfed in significance to the cracking of encryption protecting US Dollar and Euro based financial systems. It's not mythical, it's called Quantum Comput...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why dismiss sectors?
Replies: 28
Views: 1369

Re: Why dismiss sectors?

I have been reading this forum for quite some time, paying attention to people's views on asset allocation, investment strategies etc. It seems to me that most Bogleheads dislike sectors. While I see why you should not put a big chunk of your money into a specific sector, I do not quite see why a p...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cross-country trip via Amtrak
Replies: 45
Views: 3451

Re: Cross-country trip via Amtrak

If you search on youtube, there are several *long* amtrak travel videos that really give you the feeling of what it is like. And there are lots of tips and pros and cons of the experience. Check them out. There is one from Chicago to the West Coast that is great (in winter with heat failure issues ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cross-country trip via Amtrak
Replies: 45
Views: 3451

Re: Cross-country trip via Amtrak

For the past year or so I've been thinking of taking a trip to the East Coast (Boston, New York, etc.) to visit friends and family. I'm pretty sure now that I'm gonna do it next spring. I've flown across the country many times (I live in Oregon). Now I'm toying with the idea of making the trip via ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sin as investment strategy
Replies: 26
Views: 3512

Re: Sin as investment strategy

Larry, Sin stock investing as a factor has been on my mind off and on the last couple years, and I came across this post of yours from a few years ago (thank you for posting the link). In the years since, have you come across any reasonably analogous alternative to VICEX, hopefully one with an ER l...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years
Replies: 38
Views: 2597

Re: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years

First, Has anyone did a rolling approach looking further back at 5, 10, 20 year intervals. Think you need to do that before you can say this thought has some wheels otherwise it may just be a sampling error. Agreed. Although if you just look at the makeup of the ten largest stocks in the S&P 500, y...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRKB overlap with VTSAX overweight AAPL?
Replies: 5
Views: 477

Re: BRKB overlap with VTSAX overweight AAPL?

I was hoping to find an answer to a question that has been bugging me lately. I noticed that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is the 5th largest holding in VTSAX. I also know that this company holds a lot of Apple and other major US companies which are also in the top holdings. My question is, because compa...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years
Replies: 38
Views: 2597

Re: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years

I became aware earlier of research which indicated that the largest companies in a country's stock market, as defined by market capitalization, tend to underperform the rest of the market going forward. But it wasn't until today that I came across such a dramatic example of this in action from Rese...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 74
Views: 10199

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

Would you please explain why illiquidity would cause a performance problem with TIPS in late 2008? Also, I read mean times on the forum that during a financial crisis many investors flee to safety of treasuries and that is why something like total Bond fund did ok during the 2008 crisis. Does a sur...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?
Replies: 19
Views: 1714

Re: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?

David Swenson, the Chief Investment Officer at Yale, argues against Corp Bonds in his book Unconventional Success - A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment. He cites credit risk, lack of liquidity, and callability. He views callable bonds as " heads I win, tails you lose" from the issuer's pe...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 43
Views: 3818

Re: Corporate politics/culture

Well, I'm not surprised to see that I'm not the only semiconductor veteran here! More of an interested onlooker. But I knew a lot of semiconductor engineers at one time. Yep, "we're going to concentrate now on our core business". Layoffs start, new innovative teams are disbanded, etc. Begin spiral....
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?
Replies: 19
Views: 1714

Re: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?

I'm new to bonds and would like to hear your opinion. I currently have stocks but want to diversify. Thanks! 10 year US Treasury bonds are paying 3%. That's the best yield in years. I would not buy corporate bonds right now: - corporate bonds have equity risk. That's well established. And in downtu...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Europe] EUR+USD complicated portfolio for better yield
Replies: 15
Views: 741

Re: EUR+USD complicated portfolio for better yield

Hi, I have both EUR and USD (around 50/50) which I want to invest in a hopefully-simple portfolio covering the whole world, 80% equity and 20% bonds. The situation is that I'm from Europe, and investing in Ireland-domiciled funds is preferable, and - my investable sum is around 50% EUR and 50% USD....
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Masters Degree Advice
Replies: 25
Views: 2334

Re: Masters Degree Advice

I am a recent mechanical engineering graduate (<1 year) and am looking for some career advice. I just started working and am making about 70k a year prior to overtime. I do not receive time and a half unfortunately, I get straight time. So an opportunity may arise in the near future to have my Mast...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10525

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

As a US citizen born abroad who spent well over a half of his life in Europe, I find the general attitude in this thread somewhat disturbing. Perhaps I shouldn't be surprised given that 64% of the US population doesn't own a passport... Read about what's happening in the US Foreign Service. This is...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maserati Experiences
Replies: 47
Views: 5083

Re: Maserati Experiences

munemaker wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:39 am
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:14 pm

What are Bogleheads collective experiences with Maserati cars?
Bogleheads would buy a Toyota Camry and invest the rest.
And buy a $100k watch with the proceeds ;-).
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cross-country trip via Amtrak
Replies: 45
Views: 3451

Re: Cross-country trip via Amtrak

Banff is supposed to be spectacular. Can't get there on VIA Rail, the Canadian equivalent of Amtrak. You have to use the Rocky Mountaineer, a luxury land-cruise operation run by a private company. I've ridden VIA Rail's Canadian between Edmonton and Vancouver via Jasper (sitting up overnight in coa...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maserati Experiences
Replies: 47
Views: 5083

Re: Maserati Experiences

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:47 am
Completely wrong forum to ask advice on purchasing Maserati! On the other hand, if you are asking about buying a $100K watch, feel free!
;-).

That is only because Toyota and Honda are not in the watch business? ;-)
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10525

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

In an Efficient Market, all the (factual & anecdotal) evidence presented here is known. It is the marginal buyer and seller who set the price in the market. At the margin, informed buyers and sellers know these factors US vs. international etc. What do we, here, know that the informed buyer and sell...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9451

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

So after this 10 year bull (and 10 years aging for all of us too), what sorts of steps, if any, have some people taken to prepare for a potential bear? 10 years is a substantial portion of both one’s accumulation phase and of one’s investing lifetime. Dave This is the real question, what can / shou...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9451

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

If you are thinking about selling, you might ask yourself what you know that Buffett doesn’t. Why is Buffett sitting on ~$110B in cash? In insurance you get premiums from policy holders, and then you don't pay out for years. But you have to set aside reserves for each $1 of policy that is written, ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cross-country trip via Amtrak
Replies: 45
Views: 3451

Re: Cross-country trip via Amtrak

Hi Bogleheads - For the past year or so I've been thinking of taking a trip to the East Coast (Boston, New York, etc.) to visit friends and family. I'm pretty sure now that I'm gonna do it next spring. I've flown across the country many times (I live in Oregon). Now I'm toying with the idea of maki...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 43
Views: 3818

Re: Corporate politics/culture

The 80-20 is standard McKinsey analysis and I wouldn't be surprised if they paid $1m+ to McKinsey for a consulting assignment with that particular insight. You know whats funny... Right around the time that I hit my final straw and gave my notice, my old company brought in McKinsey. I even got inte...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 123
Views: 14413

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

Sears Holdings is up 50% today at 45.4 cents, why? It's bankrupt soon and the shares will be delisted and worthless so why does anyone buy? Sometimes debt holders also buy the equity. If the business avoids actual Chapter 7, the equity can still have negotiating rights, even though its value is zero.
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 43
Views: 3818

Re: Corporate politics/culture

I worked for one particular MegaTechCorp where the executive VP of sales rotated in/out on about an 18 month basis. Every one of them seemed to feel that they needed to make a major change to show how great they were. I'm attached to sales so saw the result of their ego driven stupidity. One VP say...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3559

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

As an accountant, I would define cash and cash equivalents as short-term, highly liquid investments with a maturity of three months or less at the time of purchase. The items included as cash and cash equivalents must also be unrestricted, i.e. you cannot pledge such money as collateral for loans. ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX [Vanguard Target Date Funds]
Replies: 51
Views: 4142

Re: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX

I hardly ever check my accounts,but I signed in tonight,to transfer some money out of my money marked account.I almost fainted when I saw the 18.47 drop! I live in a one story house,so I couldn't even jump off my roof. :oops: Why can't you jump off the roof of a one story house? :confused It was a ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I sell Microsoft Bond
Replies: 19
Views: 1348

Re: Should I sell Microsoft Bond

columbia wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:50 pm
RIP Paul Allen:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/microso ... ge-65.html
Sad.

He seemed to do quite a bit of good with his money.