Search found 39452 matches

by Valuethinker
Sun May 31, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice for science PhD student
Replies: 55
Views: 4143

Re: Career advice for science PhD student

I could agree more with fatFIRE. Assume you meant "could n't ". I have a good friend who is just finishing up his 5yr post-doc in human physiology. He's now 35, with a wife and 3 kids, and he's never made >$40k. He's been in contact with me over the past year about essentially entry level positions...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 31, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice for science PhD student
Replies: 55
Views: 4143

Re: Career advice for science PhD student

...CPA only requires modest mathematical ability. ... I will add accounting to my list of things to consider. Your description of the "inside world" in VC firms was also very eye-opening. It's difficult to know what the firms are like when the only information you have is the public statements abou...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 31, 2020 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman-Sachs Compares Bitcoin to the Tulip Bubble
Replies: 58
Views: 3473

Re: Goldman-Sachs Compares Bitcoin to the Tulip Bubble

Of course had Goldman been around then they would have been plowing their clients into Tulips. Or at least an inverse 3x CDO SWAP derivative of Tulips or some such nonsense ;-) Goldman was heavily involved in leveraged utility trusts, the CDO of the 1929 Crash. It nearly brought the firm down. The ...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 31, 2020 3:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economy and The Markets
Replies: 30
Views: 1518

Re: Economy and The Markets

And under the weight of the everything bubble do you think that there will be a turning point and the markets will eventually correct themselves to where they should be given the economic situation and outlook? The Federal Reserve has effectively cut interest rates to zero, pumped trillions of doll...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 31, 2020 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will this decade play out like the 1960s?
Replies: 7
Views: 1211

Re: Will this decade play out like the 1960s?

Feels like we’re reliving the 60s. A space launch, racial tensions, a Wallace like candidate/president, threat of communism. Market seems to have done pretty well in the 60s until the 70s came along. That’s just from my ignorant perspective. I realize that there is a lot more with the gold standard...
by Valuethinker
Sat May 30, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lifelong New Yorker relocating to Philly for FIRE?
Replies: 35
Views: 2235

Re: Lifelong New Yorker relocating to Philly for FIRE?

Hi all, I'm single and in my early 30s right now and have been pursuing FIRE for about 3 years. I've got a solid nest egg now and am thinking of relocation to Philly. My job can be done remotely and I feel like my 250k+ income will go a lot further than NYC. I also have a 880sqft 3br condo right no...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 29, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economy and The Markets
Replies: 30
Views: 1518

Re: Economy and The Markets

Uncertainty means higher expected returns, not lower. Uncertainty means expected returns are uncertain. Expected returns are always uncertain. Uncertainty is a measure of risk. Higher risk, higher expected return. Technically, if you follow option pricing, it is higher volatility which implies high...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 29, 2020 3:46 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: 20-year-old, Investment advice [UK]
Replies: 36
Views: 1372

Re: 20-year-old, Investment advice [UK]

So you're going 90% stocks instead of 80%? Why the switch? VWRL doesnt include small cap and the growth returns of those are very attractive to me, since overtime small cap outperforms big cap companies, if im investing for the next 30 years that seems way more attractive So i added 10% of small ca...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 28, 2020 4:18 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: 20-year-old, Investment advice [UK]
Replies: 36
Views: 1372

Re: 20-year-old, Investment advice [UK]

So, do you think currency risk is a big thing then? So, you're saying that even if the S&P 500 grew at a greater return than the FTSE 100, it would be worthwhile to have an ETF in the FTSE 100 because of the currency risk? Surely over time currency risk becomes obsolete? Currency risk can be a big ...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 28, 2020 4:10 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: 20-year-old, Investment advice [UK]
Replies: 36
Views: 1372

Re: 20-year-old, Investment advice [UK]

I'd like to walk back my advice a bit (to add UK stocks) and just say I agree with glorat: 80% VWRL (world stocks) and 20% AGBP (bonds in GBP) A few reasons: (1) it's simple, avoids tinkering risk, (2) as you add more bonds over time, currency risk will decrease. What you should definitely avoid (I...
by Valuethinker
Wed May 27, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: 20-year-old, Investment advice [UK]
Replies: 36
Views: 1372

Re: 20-year-old, Investment advice [UK]

So, do you think currency risk is a big thing then? So, you're saying that even if the S&P 500 grew at a greater return than the FTSE 100, it would be worthwhile to have an ETF in the FTSE 100 because of the currency risk? Surely over time currency risk becomes obsolete? Currency risk can be a big ...
by Valuethinker
Wed May 27, 2020 5:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice for science PhD student
Replies: 55
Views: 4143

Re: Career advice for science PhD student

Holders of advanced degrees, especially Phds, can do very well at investment firms, including venture capital firms, providng insight and guidance about whether start-ups have achievable and realistic product goals. ... Work at such firms requires that you "fit in" to their culture and methods. I h...
by Valuethinker
Wed May 27, 2020 2:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice for science PhD student
Replies: 55
Views: 4143

Re: Career advice for science PhD student

All the jobs listed above can be great, and they can all suck. A lot of life is what you make of it. However, there is a lot of truth to the warnings listed above. I have a friend who graduated with a PhD in theoretical chemistry from a mid-tier school. She took most of the actuarial exams during h...
by Valuethinker
Tue May 26, 2020 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Air conditioner stocks
Replies: 27
Views: 1784

Re: Air conditioner stocks

Forget the seasonal stuff like HVAC companies. You're overthinking. I'd buy a utility, because you need electricity to run all this stuff each and every day whether you're in your office or home. I'm partial to one called Berkshire Hathaway Energy. Plus they have some other stuff as part of their l...
by Valuethinker
Tue May 26, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [implications of] Delisting Chinese stocks?
Replies: 18
Views: 828

Re: [implications of] Delisting Chinese stocks?

Googling Sarbanes-Oxley Act chinese companies will bring up recent news stories that are far from hypothetical. [OT comment removed by moderator prudent] "The China Hussle" type problems are hardly rare, but I think the SEC has cracked down on the "backdoor" whereby Chinese companies listed on Nasd...
by Valuethinker
Tue May 26, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [implications of] Delisting Chinese stocks?
Replies: 18
Views: 828

Re: [implications of] Delisting Chinese stocks?

What is the implication of delisting Chinese stocks from US market ? The stocks would get liquidated, I suppose. What are the implications ? [edited thread title for clarity - moderator prudent] Avoid direct personal ownership of Chinese stocks. That would be point one. Because you could get caught...
by Valuethinker
Tue May 26, 2020 5:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice for science PhD student
Replies: 55
Views: 4143

Re: Career advice for science PhD student

Hi everyone, Seeing that a (probably disproportionate) number of Bogleheads have advanced STEM degrees, I would like to ask for some career advice. I am currently in my second year of a PhD in synthetic chemistry at a top-10 school, and recently decided to look for opportunities outside of academia...
by Valuethinker
Tue May 26, 2020 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 46
Views: 2749

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

] I can tell from your tone you are offended. My apologies. It was intended as a small nudge ... being trans Atlantic I am very aware of the "2 countries (3 actually) separated by a common language". On the original point, I gather that P2P lending is structured quite differently in US vehicles tha...
by Valuethinker
Tue May 26, 2020 3:06 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: 20-year-old, Investment advice [UK]
Replies: 36
Views: 1372

Re: 20-year-old, Investment advice [UK]

Hi, I'm an economics undergraduate at the University of Bristol, and I have taken a significant interest in the stock market and began to learn how to carry out fundamental and technical analysis. I'm thinking of investing in 80% ETF's and 20% bonds may be a good start. I have £5000 to invest; howe...
by Valuethinker
Tue May 26, 2020 3:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: US Residents with British Pensions?
Replies: 2
Views: 361

Re: US Residents with British Pensions?

Hello, I am a US resident with two small pensions in the UK (souvenirs of my time working in the UK). I am not at retirement age and do not intend to withdraw any funds before retirement. However, I have been hoping to move my two pensions, because I find the fees to be high: in one pension, I am c...
by Valuethinker
Tue May 26, 2020 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the longest period for stock market to lose money?
Replies: 73
Views: 13195

Re: What is the longest period for stock market to lose money?

Firebirdparts, Also, regarding inflation in our country, I heard that it has steadily & inexorably gone up each year b/c of the Federal Reserve, since at least the 1930s, or even before that? If that's correct, then we can presume that it will keep going up each year in the future, until we finally...
by Valuethinker
Tue May 26, 2020 2:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the longest period for stock market to lose money?
Replies: 73
Views: 13195

Re:

Thanks all for correcting me. I mixed up some of my numbers. Every 15 yr. period has given a positive nominal return and every 20 yr. period has given a real return. My data is from the rolling return toy on Bobs financial website. Good luck. The period 1929 to 1944 would have given a positive real...
by Valuethinker
Tue May 26, 2020 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 46
Views: 2749

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

Yeah actually now I remember the main reason we allocated some funds to P2P. It was this: when it came to deciding about cash and cash equivalent investments, we decided to go for NS&I because it's super safe, even though we would get a bit less than at some banks. Then I thought that if we put a s...
by Valuethinker
Mon May 25, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: My higher risk portfolio: seeking advice
Replies: 14
Views: 1158

Re: My higher risk portfolio: seeking advice

EDIT - realised you are 27 so probably pursuing post-graduate education, so less relevant comment re B.Comm. It may well be there is "alpha" - excess risk-adjusted returns, in a situation where most investors probably know nothing about it, it's an emergent market, etc. I had never heard of it, but...
by Valuethinker
Mon May 25, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 46
Views: 2749

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

He didn't recommend direct individual investments in peer-to-peer lending. As a part of a portfolio, he recommended a combination of one mutual fund and three interval funds--QSPRX, AVRPX, SRRIX, and LENDX--in equal amounts. The relative correlations of the four funds was important, and he said he ...
by Valuethinker
Mon May 25, 2020 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 46
Views: 2749

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

If you have 5 million in assets then no need to sweat it but your P2P holding isn’t going to provide much diversification or move the needle much at all Yeah actually now I remember the main reason we allocated some funds to P2P. It was this: when it came to deciding about cash and cash equivalent ...
by Valuethinker
Mon May 25, 2020 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflationary effects pending?
Replies: 40
Views: 3259

Re: Inflationary effects pending?

Sandtrap » Not yet. This is not a repeat of the 1975 - 1980 where inflation peaked at 14% or so. j :happy Having a Nostalgia moment. Remember the gas lines? WIN buttons (Whip Inflation Now)? And I didn't buy meat for a year because I couldn't afford it on my student budget...the only thing affordab...
by Valuethinker
Mon May 25, 2020 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 46
Views: 2749

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

If you have 5 million in assets then no need to sweat it but your P2P holding isn’t going to provide much diversification or move the needle much at all Yeah actually now I remember the main reason we allocated some funds to P2P. It was this: when it came to deciding about cash and cash equivalent ...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 24, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 6636

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

Interesting interview and comments from someone who has IMO a good understanding of markets and the economy. Like Zell, he doesn't think a V shaped recovery is a sure thing. Lots of risk still out there and our options to deal with it are robust but less than perfect. Sobering assessment. https://w...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 24, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 6636

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

The big question is if there is a second wave in the Fall. Dr. Fauci says it is likely that this will become a seasonal virus and Brazil and South America are quickly becoming the hotspots of the World as their Winter approaches. We might get a recovery in the summer and people let their guards dow...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 24, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 6636

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

The big question is if there is a second wave in the Fall. Dr. Fauci says it is likely that this will become a seasonal virus and Brazil and South America are quickly becoming the hotspots of the World as their Winter approaches. We might get a recovery in the summer and people let their guards dow...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 24, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 6636

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

Interesting interview and comments from someone who has IMO a good understanding of markets and the economy. Like Zell, he doesn't think a V shaped recovery is a sure thing. Lots of risk still out there and our options to deal with it are robust but less than perfect. Sobering assessment. https://w...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 24, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying foreign ADRs on the OTC using Vanguard/Fidelity
Replies: 15
Views: 648

Re: Buying foreign ADRs on the OTC using Vanguard/Fidelity

Almost all of my investments are indexed (either cap-weighted or fundamental) to broad market indices. However, I'm interested in establishing a small (~5%) portion of my AA for discretionary purchases. For a long time I've been interested in clean energy related stocks, of the type you might find ...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 24, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 121
Views: 12124

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

I am about to turn 40 in a year or so. Recently I have become ever more worried about my/our future. I earn about $83,000. My retirement accounts are about $111,000. I am for 67/33 stock and bond approach. We are a family of 5 (3 kids). My partner does not work. I currently save about 8.7% of gross...
by Valuethinker
Sat May 23, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs in a world of WFH + social distancing
Replies: 27
Views: 1975

Re: REITs in a world of WFH + social distancing

as someone who has a large REIT allocation i've also thought about this a lot. in the end, i'm staying the course. here's what i'm thinking. 1) as others have mentioned, REITs is more than just office space. all the people who WFH will continue to buy stuff, and all that stuff needs to be stored so...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 22, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: artificial intelligence ETFs
Replies: 20
Views: 1618

Re: artificial intelligence ETFs

a new artificial intelligence focused ETF launched this past week, ticker THNQ. Homepage here: https://roboglobaletfs.com/thnq (holdings also here) it tracks this index which Robo also created: https://www.roboglobal.com/robo-global-indices/thnq-index/ "Stocks classified within the ROBO Global® Ind...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 22, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 53
Views: 4272

Re: Investing in International Stocks

I had seen that site from link in another discussion, but didn't read some of the excellent analysis before, such as: Northern Dominance From a geographical perspective, it is the Northern Hemisphere that is dominant. North America and Europe both hold 40.6% and 19.5% respectively of the world’s ma...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 22, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4465

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

* in a world where we wear masks on half empty planes, retail, entertainment and food venues observe 6' distancing, etc. etc. ...and where we have tens of thousands of people dying per month (in the US alone) that weren't dying before all this started. There's a group of outlier countries - the US ...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 22, 2020 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4465

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

My worthless opinion is that the S&P 500 should not be higher than last October, when the unemployment rate was 3.6% and there was no pandemic. Yet here we are. Perhaps people are betting that the government simply won't allow the market to crash. In which case, earnings don't really matter and yes...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 22, 2020 3:00 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Which Corp Bond Fund?
Replies: 4
Views: 584

Re: Which Corp Bond Fund?

For the record: VDUC: YTM = 2.0%. Duration = 1.9 yr. -- Vanguard USD Corporate 1-3 Year Bond UCITS ETF (USD) Distributing VDCP: YTM = 2.7%. Duration = 7.8 yr. -- Vanguard USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF (USD) Distributing thank you. In fact, and this is a message to the Original Poster, if one does no...
by Valuethinker
Fri May 22, 2020 2:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I pull my CDs out?
Replies: 26
Views: 2723

Re: Should I pull my CDs out?

I am not sure what to do. I would highly appreciate some ideas from you guys. Situation 1. I have $300K in CDs currently earning 2.3-2.5% and maturing in 2 years. There's an early-withdrawal penalty of 6-month's interest. 2. I applied for and was approved for a $300K mortgage to purchase a property...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 21, 2020 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 53
Views: 4272

Re: Investing in International Stocks

I'm looking into diversifying my stock portfolio by investing in International stocks. We are all familiar with the U.S. stocks markets. U.S. stocks trade on the NYSE or NASDAQ exchanges. These are well known. In fact, I have been to the visitor's gallery of the NYSE back when that was allowed. I t...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 21, 2020 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 213
Views: 10140

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

I still wouldn't put my net worth in it. But probably half of the engineers I know here in Silicon Valley have a significant stake in it and several have the majority of their net worth in it. Of course, a good chunk of my net worth is in (as of yet unvested) employee shares of the startup I work f...
by Valuethinker
Thu May 21, 2020 3:51 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Which Corp Bond Fund?
Replies: 4
Views: 584

Re: Which Corp Bond Fund?

As of 29 April 2020. ER = 0.09% and Credit = A- for both. VDUC: YTM = 2.0%. Duration = 1.9 yr. VDCP: YTM = 2.7%. Duration = 7.8 yr. We've owned CP for many years. UC is a newer ETF. I've been watching it for a while. If we switch CP for UC we reduce YTM by 26%. And we reduce duration by 76%. Our cu...
by Valuethinker
Wed May 20, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"
Replies: 153
Views: 15601

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

1. In ~3 weeks we will find out how re-openings are going.. --- Maybe we will live with this like Sweden while protecting Seniors/vulnerable population. I don't know who effective Sweden's efforts are at protecting those who are most vulnerable, but their number of cases is higher than Norway's, Fi...
by Valuethinker
Wed May 20, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8854

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Can any forum members share more knowledge regarding the 2 circulating Chinese currencies (onshore CNY and offshore CNH) and if or how much impact it has on GDP and Stock market valuations? It's always interesting for me to see Chinese GDP and stock market valuations quoted in dollars, but never in...
by Valuethinker
Wed May 20, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: debt-to-GDP ratio?
Replies: 13
Views: 891

Re: debt-to-GDP ratio?

Your point is valid about interest rates. It is sustainable if rates never go up again. But the result is fed is forced to go through great hoops to keep interest rates low. If inflation were to arise, increasing interest rates materially would have severe consequences. As to smaller less developed...
by Valuethinker
Wed May 20, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Discarding Music CDs
Replies: 97
Views: 6434

Re: Discarding Music CDs

I have some music CDs that I'd like to either trash or just sell as one lot. If I should decide - in ten, or twenty, or thirty years time - that I really want to hear one of those songs, is it safe to assume I'd be able to hear it digitally in as good a quality as the CD? I know there are lots of m...
by Valuethinker
Wed May 20, 2020 6:15 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: The Mighty USD
Replies: 47
Views: 3377

Re: The Mighty USD

Any guesses on whether the USD will continue stronger or weaker over the next 10 years? My gut feeling; USD peaks in 2021, trends weaker for the 2030s. Emerging markets out-perform US market. Then between 2025 & 2030 there's a financial crisis to a greater or lesser degree, with a flight to the US ...
by Valuethinker
Wed May 20, 2020 6:14 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: The Mighty USD
Replies: 47
Views: 3377

Re: The Mighty USD

Any guesses on whether the USD will continue stronger or weaker over the next 10 years? Hi Galeno, No one knows, of course... This thread still seems to believe nobody knows. I really don't think this true and I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is. I predict that the GBP/USD rate will go fr...