Search found 38433 matches

by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship between the 1 and 3 mo LIBOR, utility of refinancing variable rate loans
Replies: 3
Views: 131

Re: Relationship between the 1 and 3 mo LIBOR, utility of refinancing variable rate loans

I understand that there is a benefit to refinancing fixed rate loans when interest rates drop, but it wouldn't seem that there is a benefit to refinancing variable rate loans in a low interest rate environment (because your rate should already reflect the changes in interest rates) unless you have ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 304
Views: 18294

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

I wonder if the pro 100% stocks crowd would change their views if we have another great depression, with a 80% or more crash in the stock market, or a Japan like stock market that declines for many years. None of these outcomes seem likely due to the past 10 years of US stock performance. Search in...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I think my friend is already financially independent (through a fantastic bitcoin investment), can you confirm?
Replies: 48
Views: 6533

Re: I think my friend is already financially independent (through a fantastic bitcoin investment), can you confirm?

It is not so much an expense but one other thing to watch out for is that I have seen several people get bored in retirement and develop problems with alcohol or drugs(both legal or not) so he really needs to be careful with that. With him having made his money with bitcoin it would also be good to...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Homebuying in Los Angeles - Advice Needed
Replies: 54
Views: 3549

Re: Homebuying in Los Angeles - Advice Needed

Hi all, Long time lurker here - thank you all for your awesome retirement/investing advice over the years! My husband and I live in Los Angeles with our one and only child, who is 3. We are in our late 30s. We both work, we both like our jobs, we have family here. We like living in LA but don't lov...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:17 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: U.K. Switch from income to accumulating ETF?
Replies: 8
Views: 477

Re: U.K. Switch from income to accumulating ETF?

Just to clarify. The VWRL dividends in the ISA stay in the ISA as cash until I reinvest them with the next ISA top up (full years allowance). The main question was should I switch my ISA holding to VWRP. I hadn’t considered “the bid/ask spread” and don’t fully understand it. Would it cost 0.2% of m...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:07 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: U. S. Marine Corps Birthday
Replies: 22
Views: 1439

Re: U. S. Marine Corps Birthday

Folks, is this post appropriate to the forum? Without the heroism of Marines past and present, this forum might not be possible. I think this post is wildly appropriate. 82-88. C'mon, this forum would've been here regardless if Marines were around or not. Oh my goodness, maybe Army, Navy, Airforce,...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:50 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: U. S. Marine Corps Birthday
Replies: 22
Views: 1439

Re: U. S. Marine Corps Birthday

My cousin was in the Marine Corps reserve, and was called up in the first Gulf War in 1991. He ended up helping with the cleanup in the Philippines after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. After that he returned to civilian life. He died a few years ago, prematurely in his 40s. Two young Marines came ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 87
Views: 5076

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

If you are ready to pay $50K+ or more, you can buy the most expensive papers or books you can imagine (the equivalent of a Rembrandt or Picasso that would be worth $10M+). For instance, for $60K, today (November 10), you can buy on line a 1937 handwritten letter sent by Albert Einstein to his son d...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 87
Views: 5076

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

So I need to put 2.5% of my money in alternative assets. It is very important for my financial health because I'm bored and if I don't do this I may end up doing something even more financially destructive like buy a boat. So I want to take a poll, if you had to pick an alternative asset to invest ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 87
Views: 5076

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

1970's muscle cars.... Actually a decent potential return - and if it does not work out, you have something to drive. We are showing our age ;-) Like Harley Davidson, and Fender Stratocasters, these things have a demographic cyclicality. What we thought was sexy and amazing when we were 19 is what ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage to prepay or not prepay
Replies: 79
Views: 5526

Re: Mortgage to prepay or not prepay

My reasons for putting extra into the mortgage, instead of investing even more into taxable are as follows: - Not having a mortgage when older/retired. Personal preference. - The main basket for investing is stocks and bonds. Putting extra into the mortgage feels like having an extra basket to put ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is Deferred Compensation Program Risky?
Replies: 19
Views: 2081

Re: Is Deferred Compensation Program Risky?

I was on another forum today and was told that investing in our company's deferred comp program is risky. Right now we have about $500K in deferred compensation account of a large secure organization which has steadily grown over the past 100 years (both as a private and now public organization). T...
by Valuethinker
Sat Nov 09, 2019 6:57 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Seeking other opinions [NZ investor asset allocation]
Replies: 10
Views: 457

Re: Seeking other opinions [NZ investor asset allocation]

Hi NZ_Investor, Fantastic break down of various tax and charges. Thank you. Ex pat KIWI occasionally considered going home. NZ tax on foreign share holding essentially amounts to a tax on wealth. :oops: I believe in the principal of diversification. Tax also alters behaviour; I suppose that is what...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond yield too low, how about high yield stock?
Replies: 24
Views: 1766

Re: Bond yield too low, how about high yield stock?

10 yield treasure yield drop below 2%. many high divdend stock (T, VZ, MO, PG, MSFT, JNJ) pays >4% dividend. for aging population, instead of bond, why not high dividend stock. Some might argue the stock might drop. But you can re-invest dividend and buy at discount. Also high dividend stock is usu...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: large stake in VNQ [Vanguard Real Estate ETF]
Replies: 17
Views: 1296

Re: large stake in VNQ [Vanguard Real Estate ETF]

Hi, i'm new here. I made a lot of money in the crypto bubble a couple years ago and then lost most of it in the preceding crypto crash. The experience convinced me to education myself more on investing. I read the Boggleheads Guide to Investing before deciding that i'd like to focus more on real es...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is selling trees for lumber Immoral?
Replies: 33
Views: 2649

Re: Is selling trees for lumber Immoral?

Work with a forester and expect instead of $7k, perhaps you end up with $2k and woodlands that will sustain itself and the wildlife in it. In another X years (ask the forester), you have it done again. I forest manage my own property which surrounds my house and am in a state program (chapter 61) t...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is selling trees for lumber Immoral?
Replies: 33
Views: 2649

Re: Is selling trees for lumber Immoral?

I have 7 acres of very densely wooded land in rural MN. Last year I had a company come by and gave me an estimate saying I could get around $7000 for most of the bigger trees. Mostly Oak with a little Popple & birtch. I just don’t know if that’s a good thing to let happen. Any sustainable lumber co...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is selling trees for lumber Immoral?
Replies: 33
Views: 2649

Re: Is selling trees for lumber Immoral?

I have 7 acres of very densely wooded land in rural MN. Last year I had a company come by and gave me an estimate saying I could get around $7000 for most of the bigger trees. Mostly Oak with a little Popple & birtch. I just don’t know if that’s a good thing to let happen. Any sustainable lumber co...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Bonds in free fall
Replies: 46
Views: 4645

Re: US Bonds in free fall

I am at a loss why the 10 year Treasury is heading on it's way to breach 2% when the German 10 year Bund is currently yielding -0.24%. How exactly can this staggering divergence be sustainable? Why? Our economy is doing better. It’s not like a German can simply invest their currency in treasuries a...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond yield too low, how about high yield stock?
Replies: 24
Views: 1766

Re: Bond yield too low, how about high yield stock?

Instead of high dividend stocks I tried Vanguard's High Dividend Yield fund in 2014 and have done fabulously well with it. What's the difference ? Stock market since 2014 is up >10%/yr. Hard not to do fabulously well, btw. I like the diversity of a mutual fund as opposed to individual stocks. That ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond yield too low, how about high yield stock?
Replies: 24
Views: 1766

Re: Bond yield too low, how about high yield stock?

10 yield treasure yield drop below 2%. many high divdend stock (T, VZ, MO, PG, MSFT, JNJ) pays >4% dividend. for aging population, instead of bond, why not high dividend stock. Some might argue the stock might drop. But you can re-invest dividend and buy at discount. Also high dividend stock is usu...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short-Term Investment
Replies: 10
Views: 651

Re: Short-Term Investment

Hi all, I've been reading this site for several months now and have started getting my finances in order. Currently maxing out retirement accounts. My question for the forum: I am beginning to put away money for a down-payment on a house. (Not looking for advice on whether or not to buy a house.). ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:01 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: EU investor: 7M+ in VWRA vs SWDA + EIMI (or a combination) and partially hedged global govt bond ETF
Replies: 15
Views: 1100

Re: EU investor: 7M+ in VWRA vs SWDA + EIMI (or a combination) and partially hedged global govt bond ETF

100% hedged back to your home currency Wouldn't the hedging cost be too much? 2% currently due to forward rates. In the short term I can lose more than 2% due to currency volatility but in the longterm this will likely equal out, especially since IGLO has 70% in very stable currencies - US dollars ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:34 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Seeking other opinions [NZ investor asset allocation]
Replies: 10
Views: 457

Re: Seeking other opinions [NZ investor asset allocation]

Thanks, I had not thought about the estate tax. However, the estate tax will not sway me to hold a domestic domiciled fund since these are forced into using the FDR method, and will have a larger management fee, 0.34% for Smartshares US500 bring the total cost from 1.2% to 1.74% (0.28 PIR * 0.05 (F...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nominal or inflation-protected bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 2763

Re: Nominal or inflation-protected bonds?

have you read this article: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/26stra.html It took 4 1/2 years to bounce back from the 1929 crash (not 25 years as commonly assumed) I don’t think that is quite correct. Stocks bottomed out in 1932, had recovered by 1935, reaching nominal ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:34 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Seeking other opinions [NZ investor asset allocation]
Replies: 10
Views: 457

Re: Seeking other opinions [NZ investor asset allocation]

You have to look at NZ 50 and ask yourself if you are comfortable with those exposures. 100k in ftse100 would be c 15k in BP plus Royal Dutch Shell, for example. I would not want to have 100 per cent of my assets in TSX/SandP60 say (Toronto) and that's a lot bigger share of world market cap than New...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keep or Sell or Rent my house (Seattle suburb)? Health Issues and Targeting FI in ~10 years
Replies: 15
Views: 1940

Re: Keep or Sell or Rent my house (Seattle suburb)? Health Issues and Targeting FI in ~10 years

Thanks for the responses; I think with appreciation and because our mortgage is low, maybe if we hire out more of our maintenance work, it could be worth staying. Do not rent it out Being a landlord just moves the repair and maintenance responsibilities around. It does not free you of them. Either ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?
Replies: 51
Views: 4798

Re: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?

One thing worth mentioning... I heard on Tom Cock and Don MacDonald's podcast (Talking Real Money) recently something to the effect of the amount of margin (ratio) was like 90% before the Depression started. So for ever $100 invested, $90 of it was borrowed. However, it was also said that the curre...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Disability vs Term Life?
Replies: 19
Views: 975

Re: Disability vs Term Life?

I'm pretty much insuranced-out now as I've updated home/auto/umbrella/working on a term life policy this year. One thing my agent brought up was getting disability insurance (with own occupation). I understand the need and that it's more likely than death, which explains the cost, but I almost feel...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
Replies: 26
Views: 1447

Re: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.

How does the market *accurately* price in that their extraction, processing or distribution facilities might (as happened in the last six weeks) or might not be militarily attacked? Intellectually honest people know that the answer to the above is “It can’t.” If accurate price discovery isn’t a con...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
Replies: 26
Views: 1447

Re: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.

Saudi Aramco is set to go IPO, with valuations going anywhere from 1.2 Trillion to 2 Trillion. Will you be participating in this IPO? At the end of 2018, the total world stock market capitalization stood at 40.6 trillion, with the United States occupying 54.4% of that. The remainder Ex-US was at 45...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?
Replies: 51
Views: 4798

Re: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?

The 1920s were complex. It's taken me a while to tune in on it. It's not analogous to anything that's happened in my lifetime. The things that have been most helpful to me in understanding what was really happening have been: --The 1935 novel, Judgement Day , by James T. Farrell--the third of the S...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?
Replies: 51
Views: 4798

Re: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?

My Grandparents lived though this. They were in a farm in a small town in the Midwest ( a long way from Wall Street). I asked once my Grandpa how much money they lost in the stock market crash and bank closings. He laughed and said they were raising their family and they had no extra money to inves...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:29 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: European ETFs historical data (including AUM, dividends/distributions, etc)
Replies: 5
Views: 353

Re: European ETFs historical data (including AUM, dividends/distributions, etc)

hi all, This seems to have been asked quite a few times before, but some of the good sources of data out there are US only and do not hold information for ETFs negotiated in European stock exchanges (or more specifically those available to "normal" European investors). In any case, I wanted to eval...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Italy - Global Govt bond ETF (.25% TER) vs Aggregate bond fund (.1%)
Replies: 9
Views: 592

Re: Italy - Global Govt bond ETF (.25% TER) vs Aggregate bond fund (.1%)

0.15% on EUR 100k is 150 EUR a year. OK over 30 years say, compounded, that's significant. But it is really only 150 EUR a year. You can spend that on a meal for 2 in any major Italian city. I think it's more important to have stability in the bond portion of your asset allocation, so I'd go for th...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How far can/should I go leveraging on rental properties?
Replies: 21
Views: 1751

Re: How far can/should I go leveraging on rental properties?

I'm starting to feel very highly leveraged. I'm about to close on my 3rd property- I have 2 duplexes and a single family. I've been staring at my 10 year budget trying to come up with a plan. I'm 32 and don't plan on having kids. I can either start deleveraging and pay off all my debt - 0% credit c...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nominal or inflation-protected bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 2763

Re: Nominal or inflation-protected bonds?

I'm sorry, this makes no sense at all. Kevin M and JBTX are 100% correct. And the statement "a positive return in still a positive return regardless of what an inflation number says" is 100% wrong. Real returns are what matter; investors must understand this fact. Intermediate and longer term bonds...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:10 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Govt bonds vs corporate bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 650

Re: Govt bonds vs corporate bonds

If you are worried about stocks and just have all bonds, then some corporates would probably be needed to juice the returns, but if you have stocks in your portfolio for the risky/growth part of your portfolio, I don't see the need for corporates. They miss the all important diversification-from-st...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:53 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Italy - Global Govt bond ETF (.25% TER) vs Aggregate bond fund (.1%)
Replies: 9
Views: 592

Re: Italy - Global Govt bond ETF (.25% TER) vs Aggregate bond fund (.1%)

Fellow Bogleheads, Italy has a 12.5% dividends and capital gains tax on government bonds and 26% on other bonds . Boglehead therefore suggests Italian residents to invest in government bonds only . However, since the aggregate fund AGGH has a 0.1% TER and the Govt fund IGLE a 0.25% TER , is IGLE st...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:47 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Based Investor – Building a Long-Term ISA Portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 646

Re: UK Based Investor – Building a Long-Term ISA Portfolio

Ted, thank you for confirming my calcs on Lloyds SD - anything over 27k and you are saving. Even if I start at Zero, I intend to pass that figure and beyond, hoping to set this up and forget it (pretty much anyway!) minimum of twenty year time frame is the intention. Early doors though we are only ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone track their actual pension benefit start date?
Replies: 51
Views: 2879

Re: Anyone track their actual pension benefit start date?

Who cares. It's a sunk cost. A pension is a benefit. This is a way of measuring to what extent you've taken advantage of the benefit. You've already retired. Nothing is changing this, thus the sunk cost. The time to look closely at the value of your benefits was when you could change your overall c...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrencies and the US dollar
Replies: 8
Views: 863

Re: Cryptocurrencies and the US dollar

The identified market inefficiency and it is huge is the cost of sending money to a foreign country or person to person within a country. At lease within the US paper checks or cash still work just fine. Cheques are almost dead in the UK. There are also issues with fraud (the banks don't check the ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Based Investor – Building a Long-Term ISA Portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 646

Re: UK Based Investor – Building a Long-Term ISA Portfolio

Thank you for the rapid responses and good to get your thoughts. You have adequately confirmed my feelings on the SJP ISAs regarding high fees - I can only add that one makes the best call he can at the time and moves forward from there! My government pension is Teachers Pension - whilst far from a...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:39 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Based Investor – Building a Long-Term ISA Portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 646

Re: UK Based Investor – Building a Long-Term ISA Portfolio

The number 1 priority is to get your money transferred out of SJP. Their fees are eye watering. If you’re investing in ETFs rather than funds, Hargreaves Lansdown is dirt cheap (£45 capped fee/year) or you could just transfer to Vanguard. Please, anybody but St James Place. They are worse than the ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Based Investor – Building a Long-Term ISA Portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 646

Re: UK Based Investor – Building a Long-Term ISA Portfolio

Dear all Newbie poster here - please bear with any ignorance on my part. Quick overview of where I am at; I own my own home and have a small rental property that has a mortgage (the rent covers the monthly mortgage payment). Emergency fund in place and various insurance products to cover the above ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrencies and the US dollar
Replies: 8
Views: 863

Re: Cryptocurrencies and the US dollar

Hi, I was watching Zuckerberg being questioned by politicians, and one point that was raised was how the cryptocurrency Libra may affect the dollar. I've really kept things simple in my investing strategy primarily doing local gov Bonds (SGD) and ETF (S&P500, USD). I try to keep all my foreign inve...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrencies and the US dollar
Replies: 8
Views: 863

Re: Cryptocurrencies and the US dollar

Hi, I was watching Zuckerberg being questioned by politicians, and one point that was raised was how the cryptocurrency Libra may affect the dollar. I've really kept things simple in my investing strategy primarily doing local gov Bonds (SGD) and ETF (S&P500, USD). I try to keep all my foreign inve...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:40 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Israel] Investment plan questions
Replies: 10
Views: 847

Re: [Israel] Investment plan questions

So for a long term investor, you want to hold long term debt. Even if that means higher volatility in the short run. I see your point, I'm thinking about: 30 % total Israel government bond market index (6.9 years maturity) 30% 2-5 years CPI indexed government bond (4 years maturity) 40% 2-5 years f...
by Valuethinker
Sat Nov 02, 2019 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
Replies: 137
Views: 12691

Re: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]

I need help understanding the cost to taxpayers. the money the government's putting in ... does that turn around and ALL costs come back to us or is that a subsidy of the markets to keep them stable etc. Will these dollars become part of our deficit? I'm also looking for a resource for dummies on t...
by Valuethinker
Sat Nov 02, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Reduce oil/coal investments seeing as they are doomed
Replies: 16
Views: 1453

Re: Reduce oil/coal investments seeing as they are doomed

Just curious if anyone has some BH advice for someone who basically is a three funder. But at the same time I can see a political and economic future that is less reliant on coal and oil. Natural gas is a possible transition fuel in the near to long term. I know we don’t market time or try to see t...