Search found 40386 matches

by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!
Replies: 41
Views: 2746

Re: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!

Your portfolio is thus a combination of the risk free asset (govt bonds) and the market portfolio (global equity portfolio). The percentage varies by the needs of the investor for risk v return. Also, in modern portfolios theory (MPT) the market portfolio isn’t just an equity portfolio: it contains...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!
Replies: 41
Views: 2746

Re: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!

Efficient Market theory says you should hold the market portfolio. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) says nothing of the sort. EMH makes specific predictions about the way that a market incorporates new information into prices. It doesn’t prescribe that any particular investor should hold any p...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:35 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Investing in Guaranteed products
Replies: 11
Views: 954

Re: Investing in Guaranteed products

I think it would be better to be 80% global bonds hedged into Euros and 20% global equities OR 80% bonds and the rest buying near the money short dated calls on the index. Thank you for the input. Would the bonds be AGGH for example or Government bonds ? Wouldn’t 80% bonds face the hazard of effect...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!
Replies: 41
Views: 2746

Re: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!

Efficient Market theory says you should hold the market portfolio. EDIT Modern Portfolio Theory nit EMH. The market portfolio includes international stocks. Home country bias is an error. Your portfolio is thus a combination of the risk free asset (govt bonds) and the market portfolio (global equity...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!
Replies: 41
Views: 2746

Re: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!

So he's saying that everybody should invest in International except Americans? How's that for "market timing" ? My impression is he's saying everyone should invest globally. US investors can get away with home country bias, but just because he's saying we can get away with it, doesn't mean he's rec...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:35 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Books for UK investor
Replies: 7
Views: 410

Re: Books for UK investor

Thanks for your reply, I will try and follow all your advice given and I will try my best not to let the market volatility effect me. It's really important to have a mental division between 1. "money I will need in the next 1-5 years" - that money should be conservatively invested in bonds, bank de...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reason not to rent out your old house?
Replies: 47
Views: 3234

Re: Reason not to rent out your old house?

If you buy a new house and you can rent out your old house for more than your monthly mortgage payment (+taxes/insurance), is there a reason WHY you shouldn't do that? Don't you get to have your mortgage paid for, have a small income stream, and hold onto the property and capture rising home equity...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiring to Canada
Replies: 54
Views: 4071

Re: Retiring to Canada

I think a Con is that proper immigration, as a retiree, is difficult unless you have enough cash to get an Investor Visa. You can, however, stay for up to 6 months at a time and buy or rent property. So if you just want to live there it’s very doable by making a trip outside Canada to reset the 6 m...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiring to Canada
Replies: 54
Views: 4071

Re: Retiring to Canada

This discussion is largely theoretical unless you are a Canadian citizen or married to one, or are otherwise eligible to immigrate to Canada (U.S. citizens do not have automatic settlement rights in Canada). Canada does not have a "retiree" immigration category- and while a small number of retired ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative Investments
Replies: 34
Views: 2511

Re: Alternative Investments

Re durable goods. Because depreciation at least in market value terms is measured by age rather than condition buying them earlier might generate a negative return? Also this is how deflationary spirals get going. If you believe prices are going to fall, and they have for durable goods so far in re...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Investing in Guaranteed products
Replies: 11
Views: 954

Re: Investing in Guaranteed products

My general experience of these is that they are poor to terrible value for the investor. Banks make money by creating these opaque products and flogging them to unwary investors. The loss of dividend income alone for 8 years is c32% of the value of the European index and more if dividends are increa...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coping with Wildfire smoke
Replies: 111
Views: 6630

Re: Coping with Wildfire smoke

For folks who have the means to do so, it seems like a no-brainer to flee the area for couple weeks at least. This is going to last for far longer than a couple of weeks. It's already been a month. I have four portable HEPA filters spaced strategically through the house (one in each bedroom and one...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coping with Wildfire smoke
Replies: 111
Views: 6630

Re: Coping with Wildfire smoke

By cultural attractions, do you mean museums, zoos, theatres, art exhibits, wine tasting, ethnic restaurants, not to mention beaches and mountains? Yes, from time to time. Flyover country has all of those, although there is a dearth of mountains in certain parts. We are talking about such a huge ar...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiring to Canada
Replies: 54
Views: 4071

Re: Retiring to Canada

Has anyone looked into retiring in Canada? If you have, what are the pros and cons? Con: Cold. Literally the entire country. Fifty two years ago, my father was serious about retiring to Canada. Even got the permanent resident visa approved and was ready to go. Went to Vancouver, British Columbia an...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiring to Canada
Replies: 54
Views: 4071

Re: Retiring to Canada

Has anyone looked into retiring in Canada? If you have, what are the pros and cons? Pros The people (generally) More socially conscious people. So more of a welfare state, single payer healthcare, low cost university, smaller evident gap in wealth etc. I attended high school with the sons of a coup...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 20, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regret early retirement/downsizing
Replies: 245
Views: 61192

Re: Regret early retirement/downsizing

Question for those who retired "early". I am 61 and considering retirement (I can do it financially :happy ). Some writers on the subject say that you shouldn't just retire from something, you should have something to retire to. I have in mind the usual suspects: reading, volunteering, some travel,...
by Valuethinker
Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it worth to relocate for retirement?
Replies: 140
Views: 12972

Re: Is it worth to relocate for retirement?

If you need to free up housing capital or move yo a lower tax bracket part of the USA to enjoy retirement more that's s clear. What matters is: - activities you want to do - where your friends are or w you could make friends eg via church - access to medical care especially over 70 - access to famil...
by Valuethinker
Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:01 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Books for UK investor
Replies: 7
Views: 410

Re: Books for UK investor

I like: - David Sawyer’s Reset for the UK mechanics but not the portfolio recommendation - Lars Kroijer’s Investing Demystified for good rationale behind global fund - Tim Hale’s Smarter Investing for the detail but portfolio too complex for me - Andrew Craig’s How to own the world and new book Liv...
by Valuethinker
Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:50 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: I'm Polish - should I hedge bond ETF to EUR?
Replies: 9
Views: 594

Re: I'm Polish - should I hedge bond ETF to EUR?

Hello everyone! I've learned a lot reading both the forum and the wiki, but I remain undecided when it comes to the fixed income part of my portfolio. Issue: there are no PLN hedged ETFs at all. I have three options in my mind: Choose an unhedged global aggregate bond ETF - better diversification a...
by Valuethinker
Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:38 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: International diversification and exchange rate hedging during retirement??
Replies: 3
Views: 289

Re: International diversification and exchange rate hedging during retirement??

Reposting from: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=324240&p=5502774#p5502774 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hello everyone! I'm looking at retiring in 2030, just over 10 years aw...
by Valuethinker
Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative Investments
Replies: 34
Views: 2511

Re: Alternative Investments

Well, most alternatives are never passive . :mrgreen: Owning and leasing out real estate is a business, albeit a somewhat different business than what most publicly traded companies are doing, and land may have more intrinsic value than software and a brand name. REITs can be a passive investment, ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 181
Views: 25703

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Coronavirus has killed just under 9 thousand people. Malaria kills more than a million a year, mostly children. A big difference is that Coronavirus is hitting the developed world, while malaria and a whole host of other diseases affect just the third world. I'm seeing stats of half a million for M...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Wellesley vs. Domestic
Replies: 12
Views: 1451

Re: Global Wellesley vs. Domestic

And if you look at Wellesley's holdings, they're pretty far towards the other end of the spectrum from FAANG. They're almost all stocks my gramps would have been happy to hold. I don't think he ever laid hands on a computer. Indeed, you are right about Wellesley (the original one.) It's chock-full ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: any lessons to remember from dot com bubble?
Replies: 22
Views: 2174

Re: any lessons to remember from dot com bubble?

I am no oracle. I don't think I have the knowledge/skill to value/pick individual stocks, especially tech. But I am considering a value tilt in this environment (from VTI to VTV is what I am considering with a portion of my US equity allocation). When I look at the largest stocks by market cap in 9...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Substituting bond with RE/utility ETFs?
Replies: 46
Views: 2597

Re: Substituting bond with RE/utility ETFs?

Hi everyone, with interest rates down, total bond market yield is unlikely to cover the inflation rate. My boglehead portfolio is (roughly) 80/20 VT/BND and I consider replacing BND with RE/utility ETFs such as VNQ and VPU. I do not plan to touch my savings for the upcoming 20+ years, so RE and uti...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 162
Views: 14025

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

It is literally funny how different the perspective of US/non-US investors is on this subject. If you ask European investors they will say that they are worried because the market cap weighted world stock market now is "more than 50% overvalued US stocks". If you ask US investors they will say that...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: any lessons to remember from dot com bubble?
Replies: 22
Views: 2174

Re: any lessons to remember from dot com bubble?

I know nothing of course. Finishing up my 25th year since making a first investment in the stock market (401k) in 1996. Differences of course, but of the periods I have lived through during that 25 year time frame, current valuations and environment remind me of 1999. This causes me to think about ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 414
Views: 73069

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

I’ve almost finished my move from 100% treasury/corporate bond index fund to a 50/50 split of that and TIPS. Maybe just in time before inflation kicks up? Who knows but I’m comfortable with the inflation insurance and higher percentage of US government debt. The combination of high stock valuations...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency
Replies: 42
Views: 3373

Re: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency

Hard to argue with his premise and the history of prior empire declines supports his argument. We are engaged in debt monetization and currency debasement. And emerging economies and structures are being put in place which will eventually allow for more and more trades in local currencies. A smart ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Condo rich vs house poor?
Replies: 56
Views: 4952

Re: Condo rich vs house poor?

slightly off topic but what exactly is it that you guys do to make $500k in income? LOL, I must be in the wrong field (Software Engineering) as a lot on this board list incomes in that range... :happy I would bet Financial Services. And they live in Brooklyn ;-) (or Boston) Or perhaps lawyers in Wa...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Condo rich vs house poor?
Replies: 56
Views: 4952

Re: Condo rich vs house poor?

Spouse and I are having a debate about our lifestyle and I’d love to hear others’ experiences. Late 30s. We live in a VHCOL area where 1-2BR condos are $1m+ and 3-4BR single family houses are $2.5-$3.5m. We currently have income in the $500k range but it’s not guaranteed (not MDs) but I couldn’t se...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Condo rich vs house poor?
Replies: 56
Views: 4952

Re: Condo rich vs house poor?

Not very many LCOL areas offer many $250K jobs. Sounds like they possibly work in finance in NYC. A lot of those high-paying jobs can now be done WFH. Buying in VHCOL is a crazy exercise in faith & hope - you just gotta go for it at some point, despite how terrible the math looks (or move away.) Th...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of Propane Air Conditioning on House
Replies: 12
Views: 900

Re: Cost of Propane Air Conditioning on House

I'm in the process of purchasing a home and it has two rooftop air conditioning units. These are tied into the existing heating/ducting system in the attic below each unit, each on a separate level of the house, so there are two zones. My original plan was to put in a large solar array to minimize ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency
Replies: 42
Views: 3373

Re: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency

Hard to argue with his premise and the history of prior empire declines supports his argument. We are engaged in debt monetization and currency debasement. And emerging economies and structures are being put in place which will eventually allow for more and more trades in local currencies. A smart ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Rates
Replies: 6
Views: 760

Re: Negative Rates

Large institutions and sovereigns are likely big buyers. Some of them could in principle stack up Benjamins in a vault, but then they'd incur the cost of building the vault and paying the staff for it: guards, money-handlers, etc. It's simpler and maybe even cheaper to pay a negative interest rate....
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESG investing making a real impact?
Replies: 9
Views: 458

Re: ESG investing making a real impact?

Why would insurers care whether Blackrock funds own coal or not? I would say rise of ESG funds and insurance companies awareness of climate are both caused by political pressure and consciousness raising from the environmental movement, not that one is causing the other. The article didn't make the...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESG investing making a real impact?
Replies: 9
Views: 458

Re: ESG investing making a real impact?

Why would insurers care whether Blackrock funds own coal or not? I would say rise of ESG funds and insurance companies awareness of climate are both caused by political pressure and consciousness raising from the environmental movement, not that one is causing the other. Axa in particular (so sever...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESG investing making a real impact?
Replies: 9
Views: 458

Re: ESG investing making a real impact?

Came across this excerpt in a WSJ article about the decline of coal : Mean­while the rise of “ESG” or en­vi­ron­mental, so­cial and gov­er­nance in­vest­ing is con­strict­ing the in­dus­try’s abil­ity to ob­tain cap­i­tal, cur­rent and for­mer ex­ec­u­tives say. As ma­jor in­vestors such as JP­Mor­...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relocation - CO considerations?
Replies: 59
Views: 4063

Re: Relocation - CO considerations?

My fiance just got an acceptance offer from a very selective graduate program that leads into a $100k job upon graduation. This program is in Denver, CO and begins in next summer. She's also interviewing with our local college program in Indianapolis IN. For the sake of argument, let's assume she g...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Rates
Replies: 6
Views: 760

Re: Negative Rates

Dea Bogleheads, can you please clarify why negative rates for treasuries exist and who and why buys them? Thanks If you believe USD will rise OR interest rates will fall further you can still achieve a positive return. Third possibility is deflation. If prices fall more than the negative yield, you...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock that can act like bonds
Replies: 31
Views: 2256

Re: Stock that can act like bonds

The gold option may be best suited. The bonds I can’t really consider for religious purposes. Thank you. UK based? You should not invest in US funds. The UK has Sharia compliant funds On the debt side you have an issue because bond equivalent are all based on interest. National Savings and bank dep...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coping with Wildfire smoke
Replies: 111
Views: 6630

Re: Coping with Wildfire smoke

https://www.amazon.com/Invisible-Killer-Gary-Fuller/dp/1911545191/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1&keywords=gary+fuller+air+pollution&qid=1600273476&sr=8-2 is an excellent book about recent research into air pollution, by a scientist in the field. The Invisible Killer: the rising threat of air pollution by Gary ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coping with Wildfire smoke
Replies: 111
Views: 6630

Re: Coping with Wildfire smoke

The big basin state park in norcal has been completely decimated. These trees are 1000-2000 years old and have probably been through much worse. btw, they're still around https://abc7news.com/big-basin-redwoods-czu-lightning-complex-california-fire/6387914/ A lot of what is burning is apparently mo...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Solar - after 1 year the results are in.
Replies: 45
Views: 4802

Re: Solar - after 1 year the results are in.

Thanks for sharing your story. I noticed that the solar companies never calculate the Opportunity Cost of all the $$ they want you to pluck down. Every time I do the math the payoff is well over a decade and that is BEFORE I calculate in the Opportunity cost of the big money I would be putting down...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Whether to lapse term life insurance
Replies: 21
Views: 1369

Re: Whether to lapse term life insurance

Current situation: Late 40s. Recently stopped working -- I guess I could call it early retired. With a combination of our rental properties, pre-tax and post-tax retirement funds, investments in non-retirement funds, and deferred compensation, our family is set to have way more than enough to live ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thinking of moving/emigrating to Canada
Replies: 35
Views: 4775

Re: Thinking of moving/emigrating to Canada

Thanks for the info. I have done the drive from Sarnia to Niagara multiple times. The Toronto/Hamilton traffic is terrible. It's certainly a major concern. The 401 Highway is essentially the transport artery for the whole region from Montreal to Detroit, and branching down through into New York Sta...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thinking of moving/emigrating to Canada
Replies: 35
Views: 4775

Re: Thinking of moving/emigrating to Canada

I think Tomato's point is that health care in Canada is nationalized, and people pay into the system via taxes during their working lives. Moving there in retirement and expecting to be covered by "the health care/social welfare system" without having paid into it is like someone immigrating to the...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coping with Wildfire smoke
Replies: 111
Views: 6630

Re: Coping with Wildfire smoke

For folks who have the means to do so, it seems like a no-brainer to flee the area for couple weeks at least. And deal with COVID 1000 miles away? You bet. Dealing with Covid is fairly manageable with some basic precautions. Avoiding noxious air 24/7 is a lot harder. It really isn't. Unless you can...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PSA: switch to LED light bulbs and save hundreds per year
Replies: 166
Views: 10826

Re: PSA: switch to LED light bulbs and save hundreds per year

Spirit Rider wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:16 pm There are many people who always turn on the lights even on a sunny day with lots of windows in the room.
Your eyes get dimmer as you get older. On a cloudy day I need the lights on.

I am really noticing this in my late 50s.

And of course we age at different rates.
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: charging an EV
Replies: 250
Views: 14282

Re: charging an EV

Then maybe an EV is not right for you Today. Maybe someday but not today. And that's okay. You're right, one day, but that day is not today, tomorrow or next year. I'm going to let the free market get some more products on the road before I pull the plug on ICE. Actually it is forced innovation. Li...