Search found 34400 matches

by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details
Replies: 106
Views: 8102

Re: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details

We are all persuadable - or at least if there are people who are not, they are very rare indeed. DO NOT assume you are bulletproof (one reason they like people to come with their spouses is they only have to persuade the weaker link-- most of us are more vulnerable to suasion if our spouses are per...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details
Replies: 106
Views: 8102

Re: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details

They buy you lunch to make you feel obligated. You feel like you are held hostage, they call in the supervisor to double team you. They hold any free-bee's until after they convince you to buy. Why would eating a free lunch make you feel obligted to buy anything? As for the double-teaming, it would...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 55
Views: 2920

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

Well - 3.33% is less than 4% so already very conservative. Do you adjust the withdrawal to account for inflation - or does it stay fixed? Do you recalculate every year? Do I get to take 5% 10 years into my 30 year retirement? As far as I know the 4% number was never claimed to be valid for a global...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: “Day to kill” in Venice Italy
Replies: 48
Views: 2744

Re: “Day to kill” in Venice Italy

Hello all We are on our last night in Venice and headed to Florence tomorrow. So far, frankly, it’s been pretty rough. Jet lag is real! We are over that though thank goodness. I knew traveling with heavily Americanized (if there is such a term) teenagers was going to present challenges. That said, ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 34
Views: 4159

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

There is certainly a market for secure, purely digital payment methods, and Bitcoin was developed with that in mind from the beginning. Who can say if Bitcoin ever ends up fulfilling that role. The odds are probably against it, but if it happens, every household in the world is going to need to hav...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illiquid Assets - Volatility
Replies: 4
Views: 423

Re: Illiquid Assets - Volatility

So in illiquid assets, such as direct real estate, alternative lending, and reinsurance, what's the effect of stale pricing on volatility smoothing and correlations? I know AQR made this point about hedge funds in the past: https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/Do-Hedge-Funds-Hedge,...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New refrigerator issues
Replies: 18
Views: 1487

Re: New refrigerator issues

Great information. It still is too loud though. Has anyone noticed the newer refrigerators running louder than older ones? In 2005 I replaced a refrigerator from the 60's. I was shocked by how loud the new one was. It literally woke me up at night. There was nothing wrong with it and I got used to ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Basic Inflation Questions
Replies: 20
Views: 832

Re: Basic Inflation Questions

I'm trying to understand basic inflation. I think I'm on the right track but I want to make sure. I can find the current inflation here: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi I have a hard time understanding what this means. In May it says it was 2.8%. What does this mean for my ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mercantil Bank CD?
Replies: 3
Views: 217

Re: Mercantil Bank

Would you have any concern about buying a brokered CD from Mercantil Bank? I know it would be FDIC insured. OTOH, its parent company is in Venezuela. that, alone, would make me stay away. It's quite possible that I am overly cautious, that any risk to the depositor is covered off by FDIC. Does the ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?
Replies: 23
Views: 1660

Re: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?

So for me the question remains what is a meaningful "mean" to which global markets might "revert"? Not sure your question is answerable, without false precision. All we can say, based on the historical record, is that global stock returns have been fairly sensitive to the rate of global aggregate G...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?
Replies: 23
Views: 1660

Re: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?

SimpleGift Thanks for posting the charts. They are helpful. My concern regarding the use of long time spans for comparison purposes is that we have experienced a fair amount of technological advancement and globalization over the past 50 years. I don't mean to say that "this time is different" in t...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New refrigerator issues
Replies: 18
Views: 1487

Re: New refrigerator issues

We just bought a new refrigerator and having issues with it. We contacted the manufacturer and will be having someone come by. Since repair technicians generally aren't always reliable I wanted to get some advice somewhere else and see if anyone has had a similar experience. This is the refrigerato...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK resident non-dom: what's best investment location?
Replies: 46
Views: 2916

Re: UK resident non-dom: what's best investment location?

Hello! I hope you won't mind me piggyback riding on the back of this post, but my questions are directly related to a lot of things covered in this post, namely all the rules related to being a UK resident non-dom. I moved to the UK a year ago and will soon be filing my first tax return. Given my l...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheap, fuel efficient 2nd car commuting?
Replies: 17
Views: 1383

Re: Cheap, fuel efficient 2nd car commuting?

My daily driver is newer (paid for) truck averaging about 18 miles per gallon (city/highway). I was averaging about 10,000 miles per year with this truck so depreciation and fuel expenses were not that big of a concern for me. Due to an unexpected but good job change, I am now anticipate driving ab...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 2434

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

Late post to this, but has anyone compared holding a mix of Global All Cap https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/vanguard-ftse-global-all-cap-index-fund-gbp-accumulation-shares and Global Bond hedged to GBP https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/o/fpd9/vanguard-global-bond-index-hedged-acc-gb...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [UK] Confused about Stocks and Shares LISA
Replies: 1
Views: 120

Re: [UK] Confused about Stocks and Shares LISA

I'm looking to drip-feed invest about £30K into Vanguard LS 80/100 over the next few years, leaving £15K in cash. I'm 25 and make about £25K at the moment, which should rise steadily. My main goal is funding my children's education in 20 years, however I also want to buy a small property at some po...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?
Replies: 15
Views: 1692

Re: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?

I would argue unskilled rather than skilled labour. Skilled labour is anything but in infinite supply. What became possible was a car assembled in Mexico of Chinese parts, or the mass migration of consumer goods production to China, which had a virtually infinite supply of biddable labour. Skilled ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?
Replies: 22
Views: 865

Re: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?

I don't really get why the media fixates on what seems like an antiquated and arbitrary heuristic versus something like the S&P 500. It is a bit irritating and is just an artifact of history. Much like the U.S. not adopting the metric system, despite it being the global standard these days. :annoye...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details
Replies: 106
Views: 8102

Re: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details

Unwise me.. I got one for 14k Exchanges with RCI are twice the price that what I pay on maintenance and fees Trying to sell it now. Best offer I got was by the TS company. 0$ but they pay the charges. Sell. Just close the liability off. Zero is a great price if it frees you from future liability (t...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details
Replies: 106
Views: 8102

Re: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details

Howdy, In FL cocoa beach. Offered a timeshare for 44K upfront (payment options etc) plus annual maintainence fees around 1500. Was 'No' from me to quickly collect $250 ish cash bonus. I cant think of great reasons to ever get a timeshare...my questions: 1. If you like your timeshare, what were you ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details
Replies: 106
Views: 8102

Re: Timeshare ever worth it? Please share details

Two caution (UK situation): -you might not be able to sell -you might be stuck with annual charge forever (death might not be the end, your heir may be settled with the continual liability) Wow. I would assume in the US an heir could simply disclaim the inheritance of that property. Is that not pos...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 34
Views: 4159

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

Do you think the environmental aspects of the mining and transaction processing would eventually become too great for the world to tolerate? Maybe in the future instead of electric heaters people will just have mining rigs and heat their house with the waste heat... There are ways (eg Proof of Stak...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 2434

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

Late post to this, but has anyone compared holding a mix of Global All Cap https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/vanguard-ftse-global-all-cap-index-fund-gbp-accumulation-shares and Global Bond hedged to GBP https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/o/fpd9/vanguard-global-bond-index-hedged-acc-gb...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 2434

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

Late post to this, but has anyone compared holding a mix of Global All Cap https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/vanguard-ftse-global-all-cap-index-fund-gbp-accumulation-shares and Global Bond hedged to GBP https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/o/fpd9/vanguard-global-bond-index-hedged-acc-gb...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 2434

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

Late post to this, but has anyone compared holding a mix of Global All Cap https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/vanguard-ftse-global-all-cap-index-fund-gbp-accumulation-shares and Global Bond hedged to GBP https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/o/fpd9/vanguard-global-bond-index-hedged-acc-gb...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?
Replies: 16
Views: 1253

Re: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?

At the risk of a very troubled pot (British ) calling a Swedish kettle dirty*, Sweden has undergone quite sweeping social and economic changes in the last 20 years. I am assuming that you keep in touch with the country on a regular basis, but you might find "you can't go home again". This is a bit ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rate Differential: The case for currency hedging
Replies: 2
Views: 249

Re: Interest Rate Differential: The case for currency hedging

Hi! As I understand, hedging a currency "costs" the differential between interest rates. Currently this differential is near 3% between EUR and USD so if you hedge the S&P 500 from USD to EUR you are "loosing" nearly 3% (without taking into account USD/EUR movements). https://i.imgur.com/agFKj9i.pn...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?
Replies: 16
Views: 1253

Re: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?

We live in Switzerland (HCOL) and are thinking about retiring to Sweden (LCOL). We have a young family and 1M Euro in taxable accounts. We should be able to safely withdraw close to the median income in LCOL areas of Sweden (e.g. Lund) from our portfolio if we invest in a tax-efficient "ISK" accoun...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?
Replies: 16
Views: 1253

Re: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?

Are you from this low-cost area of Sweden? Do you have friend and relatives there? GIven the way you phrase it, it doesn't really seem like it, which to me is maybe a little strange. If not, maybe you are choosing things from too strictly a financial perspective. My guess is that even non-central S...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4831

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

This suggest that, data quality issues aside, investing in the broad universe of available global equities has provided fairly consistent risk-adjusted returns for over four centuries. SimpleGift....I have greatly enjoyed your history posts; I am an amateur student (dilettante?) of history myself. ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds - lazy portfolios
Replies: 6
Views: 1009

Re: International bonds - lazy portfolios

Iceport, Thanks for sharing these details. I have been trying to align my portfolio much better as it is passing into 7 seven figure territory and more and more this is no longer about savings rate as much as getting the allocation balanced. I noticed in the Vanguard Portfolio Analysis tools that t...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: “Day to kill” in Venice Italy
Replies: 48
Views: 2744

Re: “Day to kill” in Venice Italy

Go to the non-tourist side, have a meal at Trattoria alla Madonna, that will take you to more of the "local" restaurants and away from the tourist traps. They have fresh seafood, and the pasta with squid ink is really good as well. At St Mark's square if anyone gives you bird feed do not take it, m...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: “Day to kill” in Venice Italy
Replies: 48
Views: 2744

Re: “Day to kill” in Venice Italy

There is a fantastic Italian Navy museum on the east end of the main island near the Arsenale. I spend three-four hours there. Just get away from the crowds, which often takes only 2-3 minutes of walking. Further north and further east on the main island get you away from big crowds. The other isla...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4831

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

Steady GDP Growth --> Steady Corporate Earnings --> Steady Stock Returns Well. If everything is (was) steady, there is (was) return-to-the-mean, because this is the definition of steady. This is a circular argument, I am afraid. Was hoping to just present empirical evidence (not an argument), via t...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Callable bond- maintain or take loss?
Replies: 32
Views: 1632

Re: Callable bond- maintain or take loss?

Re holding CDs to maturity: Am I looking at this right? in 6 years, at age 70 1/2 I see where one is required to start withdrawing from IRA. I found online calculator and entered estimate portfolio at $85,000 w/age at age 64 today. Said I would need to withdraw around $3,000 year. Is this estimate ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?
Replies: 15
Views: 1692

Re: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?

My purchase of a John Deere lawn tractor in April, 2004, and in again in July, 2017, is an example of a consumer purchase that reflects low inflation. In April, 2004, I purchased a John Deere L110 lawn tractor at a local John Deere dealership for $1,799. In July, 2017, I purchased a John Deere D130...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What financial vehicle was this??
Replies: 6
Views: 799

Re: What financial vehicle was this??

A few months back (before I found bogleheads.org), Edward Jones set my mother up with something for $35k that was just sitting in her checking account. It was a 1% load, she has to leave it there for at least 3 years, and when she takes it out there is no tax due on the growth, supposedly 4-5% per ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4831

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

The obvious take away is not to assume more than 2% real for bonds - which you should not be assuming anyway. Yes, my sense of the lessons for the 21st century from the deep history data is that 1) it seems unlikely that global stocks would massively underperform 5%-6% real over the next 100 years,...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?
Replies: 15
Views: 1692

Re: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?

After reading "The New Wealth of Nations" by Surjit Bhalla I think globalization is actually much more of a factor than e-commerce. This book talks about globalization driving down wage growth (one of the biggest drivers of inflation) first in manufacturing (starting around 1980) and then starting ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 34
Views: 4159

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

An article in the NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/13/technology/bitcoin-price-manipulation.html and a DOJ probe: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-24/bitcoin-manipulation-is-said-to-be-focus-of-u-s-criminal-probe Suggest that there is significant price manipulation in these ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?
Replies: 16
Views: 1253

Re: FIRE to Sweden from Switzerland on 1M euro?

Perhaps the biggest cost savings in Sweden is "no keep up the Joneses"? Ie it is not a culture which prioritizes conspicuous consumption?
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?
Replies: 15
Views: 1692

Re: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?

This article at the NY Times posits that the reason for persistent low inflation is e-commerce. While it is easy to think "it is different this time," the internet and e-commerce might be a one-time event that has changed the impact of inflation going forward. The article points out that much of wh...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Callable bond- maintain or take loss?
Replies: 32
Views: 1632

Re: Callable bond- maintain or take loss?

In 2015 I turned my IRA of 94,000 over to financial adviser who Invested $35 and $20,000 of it in 2 callable CDs, mature in 2025 and 2030. Today, yielding 0% percent interest and value has dropped $15,000. When asking advisor about drop in value, he kept saying just wait they will call it. Went to ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I contribute to this ESPP?
Replies: 21
Views: 1246

Re: Should I contribute to this ESPP?

That's a pretty awesome ESPP. You should contribute the max. I'd be tempted to sell immediately instead of trying to wait 1-2 years for more favorable tax treatment. See articles below https://blog.wealthfront.com/good-espp-no-brainer/ https://www.mystockoptions.com/content/how-long-must-i-hold-sha...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Faroe Islands
Replies: 3
Views: 860

Re: Faroe Islands

I have not, and the fact that they still hunt whales gives me pause. But it is probably quite Icelandic like (sort of a cross between that and Shetlands). It may not be unspoiled, though. Orkney is now on the cruise liner route, and perhaps the Faroes? Orkney you get these huge liners docking, touri...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham's lesson on timing
Replies: 23
Views: 2731

Re: Benjamin Graham's lesson on timing

From the Michael Batnick’s new book: Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments In 1930, thinking the worst was over, Graham went all in and then some. He used margin to leverage what he thought would be terrific returns. But the worst was not over, and when the Dow collapsed, Gra...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham's lesson on timing
Replies: 23
Views: 2731

Re: Benjamin Graham's lesson on timing

Graham (later in his career): “ In the short term, the market is a voting machine; in the long term it is a weighing machine.” I can see the voting-machine part. But what is the market weighing? In the long run, the cash flows you receive as a shareholder of companies. These amount to the total of:...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [EU] Do bond funds like VANEGBX invest in negative interest bonds?
Replies: 2
Views: 295

Re: [EU] Do bond funds like VANEGBX invest in negative interest bonds?

Hi, The Euro Government Bond Index Fund holds nearly 20% of bonds with a duration less than 3 years, this bonds are issued mainly by France (24%), Italy (21%) and Germany (20%), two of the three offer negative interest rates as today: France 2-Year Bond Yield -0.466 Germany 2-Year Bond Yield -0.614...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric
Replies: 57
Views: 6641

Re: General Electric

"And you worry about one bad chairman?" I know several former GE employees who would tell you that GE is on its second consecutive bad chairman. Most of those employees are the problem GE has lots of very talented, hard working individuals. So does JP Morgan. Or Apple. Or Southwest Air. The key is ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: “Day to kill” in Venice Italy
Replies: 48
Views: 2744

Re: “Day to kill” in Venice Italy

Have an espresso in the back bar of Caffe Florian in St. Marks Square. They claim to be the oldest coffee shop in Europe (the Austrians will dispute this). Last I was there, a coffee cost me about USD 15. I am not sure it is worth it over, say, sitting in the Piazza Del Campo in a very ordinary pla...