Search found 37087 matches

by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Replacing heat pump & duct work
Replies: 7
Views: 571

Re: Replacing heat pump & duct work

So I got my first quote, it was a budget buster for sure! Selected a company that has been in business for many years, had lots of positive reviews from different sites, and was rated one of the top 3 HVAC companies in my area. Quote came it over $8400, my budget for getting this work done is aroun...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 4383
Views: 1144505

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

All the President's Men on Netflix. I hadn't seen it before, and I love newspaper-based movies (His Girl Friday, Spotlight, Call Northside 777 , and I suppose Citizen Kane). It was interesting and enjoyable piece of slice of the 1970s, but I couldn't help think about how much things have changed (o...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 4383
Views: 1144505

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

[Edited]]
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 4383
Views: 1144505

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

All the President's Men on Netflix. I hadn't seen it before, and I love newspaper-based movies (His Girl Friday, Spotlight, Call Northside 777 , and I suppose Citizen Kane). It was interesting and enjoyable piece of slice of the 1970s, but I couldn't help think about how much things have changed (o...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Junk bonds undervalued due to boglehead popularity?
Replies: 47
Views: 4011

Re: Junk bonds undervalued due to boglehead popularity?

Anytime I've looked at it, it just doesn't seem like the modest increase in yield compensates long term for the material default risk. If the spreads were large enough I may consider it. Yes. Another way of saying that is credit spreads are quite small. The premium awarded to investors for taking o...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help calculating after tax yield
Replies: 8
Views: 366

Re: Help calculating after tax yield

Hello everyone, Having some trouble wrapping my head around after tax yield. Currently in the 24% federal and 9.3% state (California) tax brackets. I itemize deductions. The SALT deduction is capped at $10,000 and I already hit this limit. Married filing jointly. I am looking at the following fixed...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Doubt about asset allocation [UK]
Replies: 7
Views: 404

Re: Doubt about asset allocation [UK]

Country diversification Is a lot more important for equities than bonds. I recommend adding an ex-US or global equity fund. I don’t think it matters much whether your bond fund is global or limited to Europe. Is there any reason to not care much if the index bond is European or global? . . . . I'm ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I repatriate my cash?
Replies: 19
Views: 1618

Re: Should I repatriate my cash?

Hi everyone, As a European citizen now living and working in the US, I still have significant savings on euro bank accounts. Right now, they are deposited on saving accounts earning close to zero interests. I'm now thinking about repatriating my cash so I can invest it in the US (ETFs, Real estate,...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I repatriate my cash?
Replies: 19
Views: 1618

Re: Should I repatriate my cash?

Hi everyone, As a European citizen now living and working in the US, I still have significant savings on euro bank accounts. Right now, they are deposited on saving accounts earning close to zero interests. I'm now thinking about repatriating my cash so I can invest it in the US (ETFs, Real estate,...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I repatriate my cash?
Replies: 19
Views: 1618

Re: Should I repatriate my cash?

If OP is now a US citizen or permanent resident, will he have tax issues investing in non-US denominated mutual funds? I thought that was strongly discouraged. PFIC hell. US taxpayers are well advised not to hold non US domiciled funds. If OP is paying US income tax then i would assume they are inc...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Washing Machine that uses a LOT of Water
Replies: 67
Views: 3622

Re: Washing Machine that uses a LOT of Water

Can you explain how too much soap leads to the clothes being *under* cleaned? That seems counterintuitive to me. There are two things happening. One, if you use too much soap, the wash cycle can't get all the soap out of the clothes and you end up with soap residue/scum on the clothes which is visi...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Washing Machine that uses a LOT of Water
Replies: 67
Views: 3622

Re: Washing Machine that uses a LOT of Water

Very interesting. Thank you. Can you explain how too much soap leads to the clothes being *under* cleaned? That seems counterintuitive to me. The problem with too much soap in terms of machine flowing suds all over the floor, I know ;-). General comment. We use Bosch washers (this is in Europe) & t...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:08 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Doubt about asset allocation [UK]
Replies: 7
Views: 404

Re: Doubt about asset allocation [UK]

Country diversification Is a lot more important for equities than bonds. I recommend adding an ex-US or global equity fund. I don’t think it matters much whether your bond fund is global or limited to Europe. Is there any reason to not care much if the index bond is European or global? If diversifi...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:07 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Doubt about asset allocation [UK]
Replies: 7
Views: 404

Re: Doubt about asset allocation [UK]

If diversification is important to you then I wouldn’t recommend the US equity index or the U.K. Investment grade bond index. How about; Vanguard FTSE Global All-Cap Index for your equities and Vanguard Global Bond Index GBP Hedged for your bonds? This is the right advice. Global index equities. Cu...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:07 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: P2P Lending - Europe
Replies: 15
Views: 853

Re: P2P Lending - Europe

Looks like I'm a little late to the party, but I wanted to share my two cents nevertheless. I started investing in P2P loans about 2 years ago, and currently they make up 35% of my total investments. My strategy is entirely automated and my net return is 6.5% - 10.5% depending on the platform. I've...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 47
Views: 2907

Re: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario

* Did a stock portfolio hedge the 1924 Weimar inflation? I have not seen any information on that. In the Weimar hyperinflation stocks did rise, but did not keep up with inflation. They increased in nominal terms, but in real terms there was a substantial loss. Gold, hard assets (including in some c...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 47
Views: 2907

Re: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario

US TIPS hedge against US inflation (in a tax exempt account). Also US ibonds. These are a hedge against inflation, but begin to fail under Venezuelan levels of inflation. The problem is with the lag between the time inflation is measured and the time when the interest rate is adjusted. If there a l...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 47
Views: 2907

Re: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario

Venezuela - a cup of coffee used to cost 4.50 Bolivars. It's not > millions per cup. Question: How does one hedge against hyperinflation scenario in his own country, assuming that he holds 50/50, or 3-fund portfolio? US TIPS hedge against US inflation (in a tax exempt account). Also US ibonds. If y...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 6826

Re: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?

Bogleheads are a very pessimistic group of investors.... At least many of the most active ones seem supremely so, even though John Bogle's guidance is based on optimism about the future. Agree. Many active Bogleheads continually bring up the idea of investing against Black Swan events... the entire...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:18 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: New to investing [Greece]
Replies: 33
Views: 2108

Re: New to investing [Greece]

CSPX has tripled since January 2011, while the S&P 500 has increased by less than 150%. Does that mean CSPX is not hedged against currency volatility? I assume the difference in performance is because EUR is so cheap compared to USD? I don't know the tickers or what funds they mean. Generally, here...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Junk bonds undervalued due to boglehead popularity?
Replies: 47
Views: 4011

Re: Junk bonds undervalued due to boglehead popularity?

Anytime I've looked at it, it just doesn't seem like the modest increase in yield compensates long term for the material default risk. If the spreads were large enough I may consider it. Also having seen first hand companies with absolutely zero prospect for financial survival get loans at 13% just...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Junk bonds undervalued due to boglehead popularity?
Replies: 47
Views: 4011

Re: Junk bonds undervalued due to boglehead popularity?

There is an information asymmetry between the issuers of junk bonds & investors that reminds me of the IPO market. In essence, the issuers of junk bonds will issue them when the Option Adjusted Spread, the Credit Spread over safe bonds is low (implied volatility is low). The market is underestimatin...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will/trust for minor children heirs who will live overseas
Replies: 4
Views: 375

Re: Will/trust for minor children heirs who will live overseas

I'm looking for input on a tricky estate planning question: My husband and I are dual US/UK citizens. All our assets are in the US. All our family members are in the UK. We need to create a will (and maybe also a trust). We will each have the other spouse as the primary heir/beneficiary. However, i...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:07 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: New to investing [Greece]
Replies: 33
Views: 2108

Re: New to investing [Greece]

You need to grasp the concept of the different types of ETF currencies and mainly the difference between "trading currency" and the currencies of the assets that the ETF holds. There is a nice summary here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Non-US_investors_and_ETF_currencies . Basically, you choose ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Washing Machine that uses a LOT of Water
Replies: 67
Views: 3622

Re: Washing Machine that uses a LOT of Water

TSP is a great cleaner but terrible for the environment. Only if you live in an area where the wastewater plant discharges into a freshwater lake. There is this giant algal plume at the base of the Mississippi River - in the Gulf? You can see it in photographs from space. That is salt water, but it...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Washing Machine that uses a LOT of Water
Replies: 67
Views: 3622

Re: Washing Machine that uses a LOT of Water

As someone who used to design front load washers for a living, there are a number of options. Like someone above mentioned, the water level is controlled by the various entities that we must be certified by to sell in various market places. But all of them have other programs that can be utilized t...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Smoke detectors
Replies: 36
Views: 1666

Re: Smoke detectors

I have a couple of questions about maintenance of smoke detectors and would appreciate some help. This is for hardwired smoke detectors (powered by electricity). 1. How do you go about changing the backup batteries for a smoke detector in a room when it is located 12 feet high? Is there any gadget/...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:58 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: New to investing [Greece]
Replies: 33
Views: 2108

Re: New to investing [Greece]

You need to grasp the concept of the different types of ETF currencies and mainly the difference between "trading currency" and the currencies of the assets that the ETF holds. There is a nice summary here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Non-US_investors_and_ETF_currencies . Basically, you choose ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about IEOR at Berkeley vs CS at UMich/UCLA?
Replies: 52
Views: 2938

Re: What about IEOR at Berkeley vs CS at UMich/UCLA?

I don’t know how much I’d be making now. I suppose it would depend on the school I received the engineering degree from and the career path chosen. I see plenty of posts on this website from rank and file individual contributors in STEM fields that are older than me and make less than me. I also se...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are there any portfolio tracking/analysis sites that work for international securities & funds?
Replies: 2
Views: 127

Re: Are there any portfolio tracking/analysis sites that work for international securities & funds?

BeBH65 wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:54 am
Did you try morningstar.co.uk?
Many international sites know the local securities as well as the common US ones.
Because of onerous US securities laws many sites explicitly block US IP addresses.

OP may need to make use of a Virtual Private Network
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 82
Views: 10011

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

I think Shiller recently did an alternative version of CAPE that takes buybacks into account. I believe it shows the market as more expensive than his original measure did. His new measure shows that it is less expensive. By the old measure, the market is 2.4 standard deviations above its long term...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about IEOR at Berkeley vs CS at UMich/UCLA?
Replies: 52
Views: 2938

Re: What about IEOR at Berkeley vs CS at UMich/UCLA?

What ever happened to the idea of a liberal arts degree? You mean the liberal arts degree that is only really an option for rich kids who can mooch off their parents when they can't find a job after college? I mean, not everyone can afford to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to debate whether...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:02 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Vanguard US or Australia
Replies: 7
Views: 471

Re: Vanguard US or Australia

Hello, I am a US citizen and an Australia citizen. I can open a vanguard account in US or Australia and I am just trying to figure it out according to 3 fund portfolio However, I am not sure if I want to invest in Australia bond market since there is so much going on with the aussie dollar. So my q...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about IEOR at Berkeley vs CS at UMich/UCLA?
Replies: 52
Views: 2938

Re: What about IEOR at Berkeley vs CS at UMich/UCLA?

I am basically torn between the Berkeley degree, which I think will give a broader education** *but* probably makes the job search harder AND what I know about Michigan: great town, great university, everyone seems to have loved their time there. Michigan grads find their way to Wall Street (not jus...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 5952

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

I am basing my view on the historical data as provided by SimpleGift, Damodaran & Siegel. There are others who think there will be lower returns but IMO to date they have been proven wrong. Except since 2000? And in international stocks. I also become more skeptical of the lower return hypothesis a...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 105
Views: 7959

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Me personally, I’m getting back into tulips instead of crypto. It has been a few centuries of a lull, but I really feel like the tulip bulls are back and have seen prices going up a couple cents here and there so there is definitely some movement. In fact, I saw a neighbor plant some fresh bulbs ju...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 5952

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

China’s share seems to peak about 5 centuries after the Renaissance... China was as technologically advanced or more so than Europe until the 1600s. Around 1700 the ?Qing Dynasty begins to break up and China becomes subject to foreign barbarians. In the Opium Wars of the ?1830s? Britain enforces it...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 5952

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

Of course, that might not include the East. Would be interesting to see world GDP weighting by regions for the past 5k years. There has been trade and merchants for some time. Here's 2000 years. The horizontal scale is unfortunate but its the only chart I've seen around. https://cdn.theatlantic.com...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 14, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 5952

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

Although I think there could be some instability, the stability has provided a large capital cushion. One way to look at capitalism is that it creates great wealth better than the previous systems. This accumulated wealth either grows in peace or is destroyed in war, famine or epidemic. What is int...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 5952

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

Echoing Dr. Bernstein, my sense is that low real interest rates — and high asset values across the board today — are just the price we pay for living in such a relatively stable, prosperous and interconnected world at present. Not sure I'd want to go back to the financial insecurities, famines and ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 5952

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

Perhaps this also has to do with democratization of capital, in which more and more entities have become capital providers over time, therefore increasing supply of borrowed funds. In the 1600s, I don't know how easy it would have been to walk into a branch and get a business loan. You'd probably h...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 5952

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

You also have to remember that before the industrial revolution most folks were subsistence farmers and the real growth of GDP from the fall of Rome to 1500 was 0% per year. During this period, you gained wealth by conquering your neighbor or some foreign nation there was no accumulation of wealth ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 5952

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

Thanks, Simplegift. Another intriguing topic from you. It would appear that humans have learned how to price risk fairly appropriately over the centuries. I remember reading that the Medicis's charged interest rates of 13% because the Italian city states were risky credits before the consolidation ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 5952

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

As part of their original study, the Bank of England also researched inflation data along with their real interest rate series, giving a sense of the average nominal interest rates for each century (chart below): [chart here] Interesting the degree to which inflation contributed to the historical i...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 5952

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

The US has grown by about 2% real GDP per capital growth rates since our founding. This rate leads in doubling of the standard of living per person every 35 years. That certainly helps to frame the concerns of any given time re:future growth. Except the recent growth is more like 1% per capita? Say...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 5952

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

Of course, that might not include the East. Would be interesting to see world GDP weighting by regions for the past 5k years. There has been trade and merchants for some time. Here's 2000 years. The horizontal scale is unfortunate but its the only chart I've seen around. https://cdn.theatlantic.com...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about IEOR at Berkeley vs CS at UMich/UCLA?
Replies: 52
Views: 2938

Re: What about IEOR at Berkeley vs CS at UMich/UCLA?

Thanks to Physiorol (and all the great responses) for the post linked below about IEOR at Berkeley vis-à-vis UC Davis CS. We are in a similar position and request feedback for our case which is as follows: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=277672 Son has been accepted into IEOR at Be...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 13, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If you have a serious health problem, do you retire or?
Replies: 50
Views: 6270

Re: If you have a serious health problem, do you retire or?

I think disability insurance, and it's terms, would play a large part in the decision. Some companies provide health insurance as part of the disability package. I have a friend who injured her back in an accident. She wasn't set for retirement at about age 40. And her job- provided disability plan...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Socially Responsible [Investing]
Replies: 54
Views: 3064

Re: Socially Responsible

If you believe in guns and tobacco, odds are you are not in favor of the Wall Street crowd. This must be a broad generalization. Do you have any data to support this assertion? Are guns or tobacco, as you say, a belief system? Help us all up on to your train of thought here. This is a personal anti...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 6826

Re: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?

If the disaster scenario for investing in stocks they drop 50% the day after you invest and don't recover for 3-5 years is that really a reason to be going to cash or avoid putting new money into equities? Or do people have an even more dire scenario in mind? No that is not a reason to avoid invest...