Bogleheads.org

We snorkel a lot on vacation and so far our best snorkeling experience has been in Captain Cook bay on the big island of Hawaii. It’s only accessible via boat or a difficult hike in. Rent kayaks off the beach and get there before the tour boats arrive. Spinner dolphins will sometimes join you on your kayak ride to the other side. I also avoid using sunscreen at all costs when snorkeling to keep from further damaging the reefs. Wear a long sleeved rash guard. The point about sun screen is an excellent one (and what I said implied the opposite)-- a rash guard is the right approach. I believe there may be sun screen formulations which are less toxic to marine life? Two places mentioned in this thread, Hawaii and the US VI, allow only "re...

particularly if you use the flip-flop-carabiner system or other foot protection. I have to ask, what is the "flip-flop-carabiner system or other foot protection"? Google was useless! Foot protection to get into the water over rocks or coral. You walk in wearing flip-flops and carrying your fins. You take off the flip-flops in the water and put on the fins. you have a carabiner attached to you swim apparel and you clip the flip-flops into the carabiner. I wear a snorkel vest which has straps for the carabiner and I can inflate the vest to make it easier to float while changing into my flippers. More here about the system: https://www.tropicalsnorkeling.com/snorkeling-shoes/ The best shore snorkeling is over coral or rocky shores i...

My favorite resource is https://www.tropicalsnorkeling.com/ My favorite snorkeling location is Bonaire. Bonaire is far enough south that it rarely gets hit by hurricanes. The shore snorkeling within a mile or so of the main town Kralendijk has been over snorkeled. All the boat excursions to Klein Bonaire are good. Woodwind is the only excursion that I know of that goes to the south side of Klein Bonaire. Sea Cow and Caribe have good Klein Bonaire excursions. The cheapest way is the drift snorkel ("free snorkel drop-off") provided by the Caribe water taxi on some days and that is OK. You can also rent a small boat and go on your own, but we have never done that. You will need to know the ropes about anchor buoys. My favorite shore ...

I guess you could go down 75 to just south of the Tennessee state line. That puts you relatively close to some parts of Ohio.

There can be an advantage to live on the border of a low income tax state. Pay income tax in Tennessee and shop in Kentucky to save on sales tax.

Tennessee has relatively high sales taxes.

My daughter and her husband use a bank in LA that is experiencing failure. They have FDIC insured accounts and they got their mortgage via that bank. She asked me if they should do anything. I told her to just assume nothing would change for her. I wonder if routine access to funds will be hindered in any way. I think this was First Republic, unless there is another bank out there that begins with R and is troubled. First republic is up 20% in trading today, are you sure what you are saying is accurate? How do you know they are experiencing failure? For instance: https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/15/investing/first-republic-downgrade/index.html One of many news reports. My wife was in the on the conversation and she confirms that my daughter sai...

My daughter and her husband use a bank in LA that is experiencing failure. They have FDIC insured accounts and they got their mortgage via that bank. She asked me if they should do anything. I told her to just assume nothing would change for her.

I wonder if routine access to funds will be hindered in any way. I think this was First Republic, unless there is another bank out there that begins with R and is troubled.

In Boglehead land
When a boy meets investing
Here's what they say

When the bonds hit you eye like a big pizza pie
That's diversity
When the bonds make you shine
like you drank too much whine
That's diversity

Bells will ring, ting-a-ling-a-ling
Ting-a-ling-a-ling and you'll sing, "Vita bella"
Hearts will play tippy-tippy-tay
Tippy-tippy-tay like a gay tarantella

When the stocks make you drool
Just like a pasta e fasule, that's diversity
When you dance down the street
With a cloud at your feet, you're in love

From playing around with https://opensocialsecurity.com/, I was surprised to find that the possible trust fund depletion issue (mentioned numerous times on this thread) is currently irrelevant Social Security strategy for current 62 year-olds. I could not find a scenario where a 23% reduction in 2034 made any strategy difference. (Not sure this will continue to be the case as younger people arrive at at 62.) Hmm... that is not the results I am getting. I tried modeling a 62-year-old with a birth date of 1/1/1961, PIA 1000, single male. With no cut, it says to claim at 67 and 11 months. With a cut, it says 65 and 3 months. (There are actually two places you have to indicate a cut. The first is in the list of advanced options. The second is ...

From playing around with https://opensocialsecurity.com/, I was surprised to find that the possible trust fund depletion issue (mentioned numerous times on this thread) is currently irrelevant Social Security strategy for current 62 year-olds. I could not find a scenario where a 23% reduction in 2034 made any strategy difference. (Not sure this will continue to be the case as younger people arrive at at 62.) That's because 2034 is more than 8 years away. The tricky part will be for people who turn 68 or something in 2034. They could get 6 years of the 100% lower payment or wait until 70, and get 78% of the higher payment (which means it will take longer to break even I'd imagine) Those folks are not at the decision point. When the get to 6...

That is certainly what the calculator is doing, but if there's value to you in the insurance component then ignoring it wouldn't seem to be a "rational ... Social Security decision". That is true. Not sure how to price it. That is a problem. For us, the difference between opensocialsecurity's optimal strategy and both waiting to 70 is a few percent, so attributing just about any value to the longevity insurance component makes it an easy decision (and not needing the SS income). Otherwise, all you can do is come up with your best estimate, perhaps by looking at the difference between optimal and waiting and trying to see if longevity insurance is worth the spread and perhaps informed by your general health, genetics, etc. A whole...

Honestly, if I were much younger, I'd have to assume that any online calculator is going to be obsolete once Congress does something, so I wouldn't even bother looking at it right now. I think the lesson is still to save as much as you can. One issue is that people younger should be considering how to invest the "Social Security bridge" funds needed in early retirement. This issue gets relatively little discussion here. But there are 900 threads here that mention "Social Security bridge" and "delay". (There are many more that may be just about early retirement) I am saying 900 treads is relatively small number for Bogleheads :wink: Plus, the wiki does not discuss this issue. Lack of preparation may be one of t...

exodusing wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:57 am That is certainly what the calculator is doing, but if there's value to you in the insurance component then ignoring it wouldn't seem to be a "rational ... Social Security decision".

That is true. Not sure how to price it.

Yes. Nobody can predict the future. IF it turns out the effective discount rate is significantly higher than the common (in my opinion, very low) assumptions, The seeming BH consensus of delay, delay, delay will be absolutely wrong. Just sayin'. You can play with discount rate scenarios here: https://opensocialsecurity.com/ You have to click a button on the first line to get to options that include the discount rate. For our married situation we needed a discount rate of 4.8% for the no delay strategy for both earners. Edit: And I think that discount rate is a real rate (not counting inflation) since SS is inflation adjusted. So, 4.8 is a big number. How much value are you attributing to the longevity insurance component of SS? In other wo...

HeavyChevy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:16 am Yes.

Nobody can predict the future. IF it turns out the effective discount rate is significantly higher than the common (in my opinion, very low) assumptions, The seeming BH consensus of delay, delay, delay will be absolutely wrong.

Just sayin'.

You can play with discount rate scenarios here: https://opensocialsecurity.com/

You have to click a button on the first line to get to options that include the discount rate.

For our married situation we needed a discount rate of 4.8% for the no delay strategy for both earners.

Edit: And I think that discount rate is a real rate (not counting inflation) since SS is inflation adjusted. So, 4.8 is a big number.

fsrph wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:35 am

tadamsmar wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 7:38 am Experts say that about 7 and 10 people make a bad investment decision concerning Social Security (SS):

That's looking back on when you chose to collect. I wouldn't call it a lot of the decisions made were bad, but rather you made the best decision possible at the time. If only you knew when you would die, you would have great idea how to maximize benefits.

Francis

That 7 in 10 figure is based on decisions at the time you have to make the decision.

cbox wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:14 am According to this financial advisor, "if we plan for the Social Security trust fund to be depleted in 2035, as projected, the incentive to delay Social Security retirement benefits to receive a higher monthly payment goes away."

Worth a watch.

If you test in the Open Social Security calculator, you will find that this is not generally true. It has no effect in on my married test. I does shift the delay on single people. It goes away for a single person who is a smoker, that is the only test I found where it goes away using an any of the actuarial tables.

From playing around with https://opensocialsecurity.com/, I was surprised to find that the possible trust fund depletion issue (mentioned numerous times on this thread) is currently irrelevant Social Security strategy for current 62 year-olds. I could not find a scenario where a 23% reduction in 2034 made any strategy difference. (Not sure this will continue to be the case as younger people arrive at at 62.) Edit: The single smoker with depletion scenario does result in a no-delay strategy. I think the wiki could do a better job on Social Security decisions. Limited information on calculators and limited discussion of the pre-retirement planning involved are relegated to the members contribution page: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Social_...

windaar wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 6:53 am You can only make a "rational" decision when the variables are certain or very near-certain. "Probabilities" aren't enough.

I meant "rational" as the term is used in Rational Choice Theory. It's applicable to probabilities when used in that sense.

Experts say that about 7 and 10 people make a bad investment decision concerning Social Security (SS): https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/28/business/social-security-retirement.html Note: I am deliberately putting this in the "Investing" forum because thinking of SS as personal finance not investing may be part of the problem. It should be called immediately investing in monthly purchases of a the best annuity you can buy, not "delaying" anything. The way it is framed may be part of the problem. I was surprised to see (in a recent thread here) Bogleheads who (based on other posts) were conservative investors who saved sufficiently for retirement were taking Social Security at age 62 and their spouses were apparently doing ...

enad wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 5:33 pm I think the title is a loaded question. Each persons decision is their own, based on their medical and financial situations i.e. what worked for me, may not work for you.

Who said otherwise?

HomerJ wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 5:41 pm

tadamsmar wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 5:23 pmirrational

"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means"

-Inigo Montoya

Not consistent with rational choice theory.

Experts know nothing about what our utility function is. And Laurence Kotlikoff, the first and most-quoted of the "expert" sources for the article, is not a disinterested party in the discussion. You posted early on this. it's almost like your figured out that you inspired this post by your comment on that other thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=7144660#p7144660 You say, you "needed the income". Your quotes not mine. I assume the quotes were there because you did not actually need the income. You said you are not losing sleep over the decision. That other thread asked about regret. My question is about bad and rational, not regret. You can make a bad irrational decision and not regret it. I guess ...

I’ll say it again. It really depends on your health and expected life expectancy. It does you know good to hold off if you die before you can claim it other than survivor claims. However, if you live into your 90s, then delaying makes sense. Now, you also have a good chunk of the population with no retirement savings. Why would they wait? I really don’t like these articles. Personal circumstances really dictate when to take it. Well said and this thread could have ended with this! SS is a math problem with a longevity chart attached to it. For most, I suspect they take it early because it's most of what they have and need it or they are in bad health and don't expect to live and want to get some of it back. None of us know when we're going...

I’ll say it again. It really depends on your health and expected life expectancy. It does you know good to hold off if you die before you can claim it other than survivor claims. However, if you live into your 90s, then delaying makes sense. Now, you also have a good chunk of the population with no retirement savings. Why would they wait? I really don’t like these articles. Personal circumstances really dictate when to take it. Well said and this thread could have ended with this! SS is a math problem with a longevity chart attached to it. For most, I suspect they take it early because it's most of what they have and need it or they are in bad health and don't expect to live and want to get some of it back. None of us know when we're going...

Rational? My retirement plan as written (retired 6 years now) 1. calls for me to die at 75 +- 2 years, my spouse to die at 90 +- 4 years 2. My main pension has only 55% survival benefit, loss of 45% of 1/3 pensions 3.Waiting till 70 replaces the 45% loss 4. We do not need the money now Remind me of Gerolamo Cardano. He is called the father of probability. He is the first person to ever state a probability, stating (among many other things) that the probability of the toss of a fair die was 1/6. He did this after 1500. Historians of the mathematical sciences are perplexed about why it took so long. Anyway, I digress... Cardano was gambler. He made a bet about when he was going to expire. Alas, when the year arrived he found himself in perfe...

KlangFool wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 9:51 am OP,

A) If someone has the choice of not claiming the social security at 62 years old, the person is in good financial shape. Claiming it earlier or later is just optimizing at the edge. We would not know whether it is a good decision unless we know how long that we are going to live.

B) If someone has to claim social security at 62 years old, then, there is no choice.

In both cases, the decision is rational.

KlangFool

I think that is just ignoring the fact that investing decisions are inherently probabilistic decisions. There is no magic door where you can climb out of having do you best on an inherently probabilistic decision by claiming that you don't know something for sure.

Experts say that about 7 in 10 people make a bad investment decision concerning Social Security (SS): https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/28/business/social-security-retirement.html Note: I am deliberately putting this in the "Investing" forum because thinking of SS as personal finance not investing may be part of the problem. It should be called immediately investing in monthly purchases of a the best annuity you can buy, not "delaying" anything. The way it is framed may be part of the problem. I was surprised to see (in a recent thread here) Bogleheads who (based on other posts) were conservative investors who saved sufficiently for retirement were taking Social Security at age 62 and their spouses were apparently doing th...

Even if you start taking SS, is it not one decision.

It is a series of approximately 48 decisions after age 66 since you can suspend in any given month according to the wiki:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Social_ ... suspension

cbox wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:26 am

tadamsmar wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:32 pm It is actually as series of decisions to delay one more month. If factors like you estimated lifespan change, then you can decide to stop delaying it.

You are actually just deciding to make a small investments each month to buy and inflation adjusted annuity which gets favorable tax treatment.

Excellent point. The decision is often framed as binary (62 vs FRA or FRA vs 70), but it's always on a month-to-month basis, for everyone.

And that influences the relative expected values, since in many cases you can cut your losses by starting SS if your estimate your probability of living to 81 changes.

At the end of the day, unless you have a crystal ball, nobody knows what the 100% optimal strategy is. In some cases, you may come out ahead by waiting to 70 and in others you may come out behind. But you only know that in retrospect. I'm not sure I would feel regret either way, since I made the decision using what information was available to me at the time. It sort of like asking if one feels regret choosing heads when the coin comes up tails. Sure, you are disappointed, but there was no information at the time the coin was flipped that would have changed your decision. So there is nothing to regret! What do you think an "optimal strategy" means? You think it is something that requires a crystal ball? I think it means a optimal...

I ended up delaying until 70.

But I never made a decision to delay to 70.

It is actually as series of decisions to delay one more month. If factors like you estimated lifespan change, then you can decide to stop delaying it.

You are actually just deciding to make a small investments each month to buy and inflation adjusted annuity which gets favorable tax treatment.

At the end of the day, unless you have a crystal ball, nobody knows what the 100% optimal strategy is. In some cases, you may come out ahead by waiting to 70 and in others you may come out behind. But you only know that in retrospect. I'm not sure I would feel regret either way, since I made the decision using what information was available to me at the time. It sort of like asking if one feels regret choosing heads when the coin comes up tails. Sure, you are disappointed, but there was no information at the time the coin was flipped that would have changed your decision. So there is nothing to regret! What do you think an "optimal strategy" means? You think it is something that requires a crystal ball? I think it means a optimal...

2. The ratchet serves as an built-in adjustment as the weather stripping ages and compresses over time. Just press on the door a bit and the door compresses against the weather stripping and stays there. I wonder if the ratchet will lead to over compression of your gaskets leading to premature failures, essentially a band-aid causing problems that wouldn't be an issue if the lock mechanisms/doors were adjusted properly to begin with. I have no evidence but that would be a concern of mine. I have seen over compressed gaskets crack, especially in cold weather and most gaskets have a compression curve (I remember calculating those back in my engineering days) of optimal compression. I've never seen one for a door gasket but I would bet the en...

I had a regret.

My wife took SS early. A bit later I got an opportunity to sell some land at a good price so I had a windfall to invest. Under the law at that time my wife could have suspended SS and restarted at 70. We could have invested in this inflation-adjusted "annuity". It was a quirk in the law that I was unaware of, and I don't think it is not available under current law.

But, I don't think she is at the age where it has started paying off yet, but that is pretty likely.

This is an action that I figure many Bogleheads can take. Not everyone has deadlatches on exterior doors, but some do. I do. Deadlaches are supposed to provide security similar deadlocks, but they are very unreliable because of the small tolerance due to the narrow width of the deadlatch bolt. Also, they can allow air leaks around the doors weather stripping since you have to apply limited pressure when you close the door to ensure that the deadlatch operates properly for security. Replacing the strike plate with a $5 strike plate ratchet solves both of these problems: https://www.nrgideas.com/door-tite-strike-plate-ratchet-style-door-strike-in-brass-hardware-automatic-door-tight/ Interesting product, thanks! Did you install one and if so ...

That's interesting. I have one problem door where the deadlatch actually extends too far from the door even when the doorknob is fully turned. This has resulted in me getting stuck outside. Replacing the knobs and lockset did not fix the problem. It's gotten worse over the years. After fiddling with it forever, my current plan is just to install an indoor surface mounted barrel bolt, since I don't really need keyed entry from the outside. But having the existing hardware work as intended would be nice too. Maybe it needs a deeper mortise. I find this confusing. A properly functioning deadlatch is never extended at all when the door is closed in you have standard strike plates. Sounds like your deadlatch is out of adjustment. But I don't th...

Honestly, I have always wondered why people bother with deadbolts at all. The average weight of a police ram is 30 to 50 lbs which is more than enough to splinter the wood that the hardware attaches too when swung by hand. I look at the sole function of a deadbolt as preventing someone from picking a keyed lock and with electronic locks, largely irrelevant these days. A determined thief will get in whether or not you have a deadbolt. You are just creating more work for yourself by having to replace failed door frame pieces and/or door after an uninvited entering. That is a good point. Our police say that thieves will ram a door causing one big "bang!" and even if someone in the neighborhood hears it they will likely assume it's n...

This is an action that I figure many Bogleheads can take.

Not everyone has deadlatches on exterior doors, but some do. I do.

Deadlaches are supposed to provide security similar deadlocks, but they are very unreliable because of the small tolerance due to the narrow width of the deadlatch bolt.

Also, they can allow air leaks around the doors weather stripping since you have to apply limited pressure when you close the door to ensure that the deadlatch operates properly for security.

Replacing the strike plate with a $5 strike plate ratchet solves both of these problems:

https://www.nrgideas.com/door-tite-stri ... oor-tight/

No form override is necessary. It is part of the standard dialog for entering a 1099-Div. Yes, I found that, there is a U.S. obligations check box. I was expected something in the state interview, but it is in the federal interview. I loaded my 1099s electronically, but I have to do something in the dialog as well. Right; all most software screens this at the Federal level and passes it to the state module. This requires the taxpayer to know how the state law treats the income on the state return. In some respects this is a "shortcut" for the developers since they can't possibly know all the nuances of all the state tax laws. At least, it requires the tax payer to know when they can't skip the check box about U.S. obligations. It...

jebmke wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 11:21 am No form override is necessary. It is part of the standard dialog for entering a 1099-Div.

Yes, I found that, there is a U.S. obligations check box. I was expected something in the state interview, but it is in the federal interview.

I loaded my 1099s electronically, but I have to do something in the dialog as well.

jebmke wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 3:23 pm The dialog asks if any of the exempt interest income is taxable in the state

This income that is exempt in the state.

Thanks to everyone for the information. I think I may skip it this year because the amount of tax avoidance would about $1 (and I have already submitted my taxes, so I would need to file an amendment). But I will probably have more next year. I have H&R Block Deluxe and it looks like I have to do a from override in the form to enter this. This is curious because it lists this time in the summary of income subtractions, but it is not included as a subtraction option in the questions about subtractions. I cannot find any info on the H&R Block website and the chat function is slow, so I don't know if an override is the only option. I've been using H&R Deluxe and deducting federal interest on my State taxes for decades. No override...

I have H&R Block Deluxe and it looks like I have to do a from override in the form to enter this. This is curious because it lists this time in the summary of income subtractions, but it is not included as a subtraction option in the questions about subtractions. I cannot find any info on the H&R Block website and the chat function is slow, so I don't know if an override is the only option. On my HRB Taxcut interview, under the section for 1099-Dividends, there is a long list of all the line items by number to enter your data. Item 12 is "Exempt interest Dividends" which for me is from my CA and US bond funds (together). On the very next page, the interview asks "Enter State-exempt Dividends" and that's where I ...

Thanks to everyone for the information.

I think I may skip it this year because the amount of tax avoidance would about $1 (and I have already submitted my taxes, so I would need to file an amendment).

But I will probably have more next year.

I have H&R Block Deluxe and it looks like I have to do a from override in the form to enter this. This is curious because it lists this time in the summary of income subtractions, but it is not included as a subtraction option in the questions about subtractions.

I cannot find any info on the H&R Block website and the chat function is slow, so I don't know if an override is the only option.

In addition to the link that shows the full list of Vanguard funds, my 1099-DIV from Vanguard has a supplement that shows the percentage for my holdings. The page is titled "Mutual Fund and UIT Supplemental Information". Fidelity does not appear to include the percentages but they also have a document the does so (which is not yet available for 2002 as I write this). Are you on the new brokerage platform? Sorry, not sure. How would I know? I use to be on the old mutual fund platform. But they were asking clients to "upgrade" to the new platform, so I upgraded to the new platform that is the brokerage platform. But not sure that is a general experience for every Vanguard client. Do you have settlement accounts (that you ...

In addition to the link that shows the full list of Vanguard funds, my 1099-DIV from Vanguard has a supplement that shows the percentage for my holdings. The page is titled "Mutual Fund and UIT Supplemental Information". Fidelity does not appear to include the percentages but they also have a document the does so (which is not yet available for 2002 as I write this). Are you on the new brokerage platform? Sorry, not sure. How would I know? I use to be on the old mutual fund platform. But they were asking clients to "upgrade" to the new platform, so I upgraded to the new platform that is the brokerage platform. But not sure that is a general experience for every Vanguard client. Do you have settlement accounts (that you ...

MisterMister wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 9:08 am In addition to the link that shows the full list of Vanguard funds, my 1099-DIV from Vanguard has a supplement that shows the percentage for my holdings. The page is titled "Mutual Fund and UIT Supplemental Information". Fidelity does not appear to include the percentages but they also have a document the does so (which is not yet available for 2002 as I write this).

Are you on the new brokerage platform?

We had income from VMFXX in 2022.

Looks like there should be US obligations that would not be taxed in my state NC.

But I don't see them listed in the consolidated 1099.

I used HR Block software, but I am not sure how they determine the income that is subject to state taxes.

This question is also about tax-exempt bond funds like VWIUX. At small amount of that is tax-exempt at the state level. So, does the state tax software know how to handle that?

As far as I can tell, HR Block would need to have detailed information on all of these funds to properly do state taxes.

My mother-in-law had her nest egg at Raymond James. They had put it in a variable annuity (or some kind of annuity) at some point. When she was nearing 90, they told her she need to remove the money from the annuity and they proposed investments with an up-front fee (called a load) of 5% of her investment and yearly fees that far exceeded Vanguard fund fees. (And this was probably not the first time they had gotten her to switch her investments with an up-front fee.) She was asking us for advice. I felt there was something fishy about this. I got her to directly call the annuity company with me on the phone. It did not take long to find out that she could stay in the annuity, but staying in decision had to be renewed by her each year after ...

Jerry55 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 11, 2023 10:49 pm Wow, I guess I learn something every day now.
I was under the impression that the TSP WILL withhold 20% of RMD's by law.
I know if I roll mine over, Directly, into my Vanguard 401K account (not started yet) they will not withhold taxes, but Vanguard will upon withdrawal of RMDs. I've been retired since 2012, and am still not taking anything out yet, but there have been some changes ever since TSP moved to their new website stuff in mid 2022. I didn't think that was one of them though.

I'll be watching this thread.

Actually, I don't think Vanguard forces you to withhold taxes on your RMDs. I did not take any last year, IIRC. I folded them into my quarterly estimates.