Search found 7717 matches

by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 26
Views: 2663

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

I'm very interested to see what the next edition of A Random Walk Down Wall Street will look like. :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: The subtitle is "The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing" and has been for many editions :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: You can search the next (12th) edition on...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 26
Views: 2663

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

All Seasons wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:23 pm
I'm very interested to see what the next edition of A Random Walk Down Wall Street will look like. :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
Me too.
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 26
Views: 2663

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

:D He is at wealthfront, which is now on it's third pivot afair. Wealthfront :thumbsup smart beta. Perhaps I am being too harsh. Does anyone have lists of WF portfolios that one can compare with VTSAX? There is the WF thing. Malkiel says that he thought smart beta was expensive beta till WF made it...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 26
Views: 2663

Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

I thought this NYT article was interesting. Malkiel's smart beta endorsement has gotten little discussion here. The NYT is not your usual industry rag. But, it still looks like the same debate from the slice and dice days to me. Maybe the ERs are a bit lower, not sure. There is an argument that it s...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10605

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

If Intl pickups again there is nothing to stop an investor from adding AA for it. The little spurt of business activity enjoyed by Intl earlier in the year seems to have died out. So until Intl puts together some reliable annual returns I'm discouraged again. I don't like thinking I'm investing in ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10605

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

If Intl pickups again there is nothing to stop an investor from adding AA for it. The little spurt of business activity enjoyed by Intl earlier in the year seems to have died out. So until Intl puts together some reliable annual returns I'm discouraged again. I don't like thinking I'm investing in ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10605

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

If you had put your $10,000 in the Templeton Growth Fund in 11/1954 you would have over $13,000,000. The SP500 made about half that. Curious that Bogle has been fond of displaying the Telltale Charts showing the historical relative reversal of fortunes for all sorts of asset class comparisons except...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10605

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Yes it may as well be a Coke vs Pepsi debate! Each side has their opinions on why one is better and some even rely on fancy numbers/charts and famous personalities to back up their bias. But in the end we all really know Coke is better. :wink: Coke is better because Pepsi has a big joint venture wi...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10605

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

John Bogle owns these non-U.S. stocks:

Sucor Energy Inc., Canada
Unilever, Netherlands
Chubb, Switzerland
Total SA, France
AstraZeneca, UK

these are in the top 25 holding of the Wellesley and Wellington Funds, and he says he still has a small investment in those funds
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10605

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

So if I buy a share of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A.—Petrobras—a semi-public Brazilian multinational corporation in the petroleum industry headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, I’m not transferring my wealth to the Brazilian government? Really? Where does the money go? I think it's like anything else...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10605

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Jack Bogle consistently makes compelling arguments for NOT investing in ex-US, as a US investor! :beer Why just US investors? Why aren't the arguments compelling to everyone? They are overpriced or too risky regardless of where you live. The only argument he makes that does not apply to a UK citize...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10605

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

But, every time the “internationalists” meet someone who doesn’t want to transfer wealth to the rest of the world, they deride this decision with ageist remarks about Jack Bogle, or remarks about how “provincial” it is. “Provincial” is a polite way of saying “stupid”. Do you think owning a stock in...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10605

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

John Bogle does own non-U.S. stocks. "He has a very small portion of his equity assets in a few sentimental holdings that happen to be active funds. These include the Vanguard Wellington and Vanguard Wellesley Income Funds." https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-advisors/012716/where-does-...
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help Setting up Solo 401k
Replies: 6
Views: 410

Re: Help Setting up Solo 401k

Hi, I've read a bunch of the threads here and some on WCI, etc., but still have some questions on things I may not fully understand. We've decided to go with Etrade. Quick background: My wife runs an online membership program geared towards helping people find their style and refine it and the busi...
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help Setting up Solo 401k
Replies: 6
Views: 410

Re: Help Setting up Solo 401k

By the way, one advantage of an Individual 401K is that you can make the contributions up till Tax Day in April. If you are trying to hit a target MAGI, you can get all your tax records and figure your taxes before you make the Roth or Trad contributions. That way, you can hit the target MAGI withou...
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4631

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

vineviz wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:23 pm
Maybe. But "rational investing" covers a lot of ground, only some of which is related to EMH.
The EMH covers the same ground.

I think you have confused some sort of simplified thought experiment with the actual hypothesis.
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help Setting up Solo 401k
Replies: 6
Views: 410

Re: Help Setting up Solo 401k

Hi, I've read a bunch of the threads here and some on WCI, etc., but still have some questions on things I may not fully understand. We've decided to go with Etrade. Quick background: My wife runs an online membership program geared towards helping people find their style and refine it and the busi...
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4631

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

A stock is priced based on its role in a portfolio with optimal risk-adjusted return, assuming it is rationally priced. I'm not 100% sure I understand you, but to the extent I do this is incorrect. The price of an individual asset is, at the most basic (and somewhat simplistic) level, determined en...
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard has switched to brokerage only accounts
Replies: 174
Views: 38028

Re: Vanguard has switched to brokerage only accounts

I suppose having a brokerage account might open you up to hack, pump, and dump. It would perhaps allow quicker exploitation of a hacked account. But it seems that such exploits are rare and you'd have to be hacked in the first place. But if you have only mutual funds then they take a while to settle...
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4631

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

The efficient market hypothesis, on the other hand, is a theory that makes predictions not about the market portfolio as a whole but about the speed and completeness with which the market prices individual assets based on available information. EMH is more focused only on the cross-section of stock...
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4631

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

This is partly based on the belief in the track record of Renaissance Technologies (Jim Simon's & Robert Mercer's hedge fund). However there is an IRS case (not sure its status) which if the government wins, would seriously dent that performance record. Assuming for the moment that RT is on the lev...
by tadamsmar
Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thinking of moving to Texas, Iowa, Idaho, or North Carolina
Replies: 209
Views: 14307

Re: Thinking of moving to Texas, Iowa, Idaho, or North Carolina

In Raleigh, just don’t buy a house in a flood plane. Our house never comes close to flooding.
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Vanguard reccomend 60:40 US:International ratio?
Replies: 52
Views: 7664

Re: Why does Vanguard reccomend 60:40 US:International ratio?

Does Vanguard ever really answer the question? They obviously want diversification. The stuff on the lowest variance mix is not convincing because you have to take return into account, you can't just minimize variance. Contrast with the TSP L Funds: https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/FundsL.pdf They ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems reasonable and pretty straight forward.
Replies: 68
Views: 8505

Re: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems reasonable and pretty straight forward.

Why not simply buy an index (like S&P500) when the 12 month moving average is flat or going up, and sell when it is going down. I don't believe I can predict the future at all, but I know for sure I can tell which way a line is going on a graph over a period of time. The key distinction here is tha...
by tadamsmar
Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing for My First Recession?
Replies: 63
Views: 7256

Re: Preparing for My First Recession?

Just watch the rock roll down, then watch it roll back up. You don't have to put in any effort to roll it back up. You just have to rebalance on your predetermined schedule at most, but maybe you don't have to even do that if you have only one fund! Your move to bonds should be based on a pre-determ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 10003

Re: How real is cyber risk?

You can check the status of your email address here:

https://haveibeenpwned.com/

From what I find, I think you will likely find that your email address and name (if not a current or past password) is already out there.

I think this is a good argument for regularly changing passwords.
by tadamsmar
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 10003

Re: How real is cyber risk?

Earlier, I mentioned that a Vanguard client might fail to live up to their responsibilities under Vanguard's reimbursement promise while doing a bunch of other security stuff. The pledge requires: "Make sure that any computer or device you use to access your accounts has up-to-date anti-virus and a...
by tadamsmar
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 10003

Re: How real is cyber risk?

Given the length of this thread and the depth of technical discussion, we really need a hero to step up and provide succinct "best practices" guidelines in layman's terms. Maybe one "essentials" guide for the majority of people, and maybe another guide for those who want absolutely rigorous securit...
by tadamsmar
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 10003

Re: How real is cyber risk?

Note that you can get hacked and still be made whole by Vanguard. The idea is to strive to meet a standard. Striving to be unhackable is perhaps an impossible standard. But you can of course exceed Vanguard’s standard. I think it would be a bad idea to do a bunch of stuff and fail to meet Vanguard’...
by tadamsmar
Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 10003

Re: How real is cyber risk?

For Vanguard and other brokerage and mutual fund companies there is no federal regulation if you are hacked. Some firms offer a policy. Here is Vanguard policy about your responsibilities: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/SecurityOnlineFraudPledgeContent.jsp I found this requirement from Vangu...
by tadamsmar
Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 10003

Re: How real is cyber risk?

For Vanguard and other brokerage and mutual fund companies there is no federal regulation if you are hacked. Some firms offer a policy. Here is Vanguard policy about your responsibilities: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/SecurityOnlineFraudPledgeContent.jsp I found this requirement from Vangu...
by tadamsmar
Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 10003

Re: How real is cyber risk?

I think Vanguard would be responsible for that. I said "if you are hacked" and I meant you not Vanguard. I don't think that is the most likely scenario. All the cases I know of involved hacks of individual investors or seemed to involve hacks of individual investors. Never heard of a hack of a brok...
by tadamsmar
Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 10003

Re: How real is cyber risk?

Cyber risk is real: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/03/magazine/money-issue-bangladesh-billion-dollar-bank-heist.html, but it's nothing something I worry about much. If Vanguard or your bank account was hacked, I would expect you to eventually be made whole by the financial institutions...
by tadamsmar
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 10003

Re: How real is cyber risk?

Cyber risk is real: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/03/magazine/money-issue-bangladesh-billion-dollar-bank-heist.html, but it's nothing something I worry about much. If Vanguard or your bank account was hacked, I would expect you to eventually be made whole by the financial institutions...
by tadamsmar
Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 10003

Re: How real is cyber risk?

Here is a recent hack, pump, and dump: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/30/day-trader-made-700000-in-a-scheme-targeting-hacked-online-brokerage-accounts-prosecutors-say.html But it looks like the brokerage firms picked up the bill, at least there is no mention of investor losses. One thing about this ki...
by tadamsmar
Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 10003

Re: How real is cyber risk?

Cyber risk is real: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/03/magazine/money-issue-bangladesh-billion-dollar-bank-heist.html, but it's nothing something I worry about much. If Vanguard or your bank account was hacked, I would expect you to eventually be made whole by the financial institutions...
by tadamsmar
Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Driver (Car) Over 100K Miles?
Replies: 96
Views: 7119

Re: Daily Driver (Car) Over 100K Miles?

I own an older Subaru Forester with > 100K miles. I recently spent $750 on a timing belt replacement so probably will keep the car 'til it dies. Who else has a high mileage vehicle that's used as a daily driver? What type of vehicle is it, and how do you decide when to sell it? Do you buy another c...
by tadamsmar
Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1188
Views: 98367

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Gort wrote:
Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:23 pm
959 posts.
Anxiously waiting for the Executive Summary.
Buy a target date fund.
by tadamsmar
Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11567

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

Simplicity is misunderstood on this forum. For a group that espouses simplicity as a core principle, things get complicated around here in a hurry. Sure does. The problem is, simplicity seems boring, so people make things complicated. But what simple really is hard, darn hard, given our human natur...
by tadamsmar
Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11567

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

Misused/Misunderstood: 3) "John Bogle is the second coming of god and let's do 100% U.S. equity like he said" ... alright, I'll stop.. but his advice on international equity is misleading at the very least.There should be a lot of asterisks associate with his advice to stay 100% U.S. equity. * He a...
by tadamsmar
Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard free RMD service
Replies: 5
Views: 1013

Re: Vanguard free RMD service

From Vanguard item above, note: Are a retired participant of an employer-sponsored plan of which Vanguard is the custodian, except 401(k)s. Enroll online for RMD calculation only. Request distributions separately. Sounds like there are plan specific concerns about 401(K) accounts, I would call them...
by tadamsmar
Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard free RMD service
Replies: 5
Views: 1013

Vanguard free RMD service

I tried to sign up my wife for the free RMD service, but I don't find any option for doing that. She is old enough. I have already addressed all RMDs for this year, but I was hoping to use the service for future years. Currently, the only account requiring RMDs is a Vanguard Individual 401K. Perhaps...
by tadamsmar
Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you have an umbrella policy?
Replies: 278
Views: 29914

Re: Umbrella insurance..who has it? Is it recommended?

Bogleheads, I just reviewed my coverage with USAA and got a quote for $1M umbrella insurance policy for auto/home liability for an extra $26 per month. I'm a bit ignorant on umbrella insurance so I have no idea if it’s necessary or overkill. I live in a HCOL area so my guess is the extra coverage i...
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11567

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

I have the impression that the misuse and misunderstandings are mostly harmless in the Boglehead world, in that they somehow don't lead to really bad investing. One of the myth is the notion of reversion to the mean (defined as the predictable pendulum swing) does not imply that market timing is a f...
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11567

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

Part of the problem may lie in different experts using very similar, if not identical, terminology to describe different phenomena. For instance, Jeremy Siegel's use of the term "return to the mean" seems to fly in the face of Bogle's characterization of "reversion to the mean" because Siegel says ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11567

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

Reversion to the mean – This one shows up continually and in almost every case the “mean” and corresponding timeframe are quite nebulous. It begs the question practically every time I see it used. It seems to be communicated more as an idea of the eventuality of shifting tides, or the pendulum swin...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 29, 2018 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP G fund as only bond fund
Replies: 74
Views: 8523

Re: TSP G fund as only bond fund

Man it makes me so frustrated when I see that the G fund is yielding 3% right now with zero credit risk and zero duration, and I can't have it. Perhaps you can get a federal job. You can roll over your current retirement accounts to the TSP once your accounts are set up. And, it looks like you can ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP G fund as only bond fund
Replies: 74
Views: 8523

Re: TSP G fund as only bond fund

I'm not sure there's much to deduce from the L fund architects about how balanced the F fund is otherwise from them recommending always having ~7% of your total TSP allocation in it, regardless of your equity or G fund levels. You can deduce no more or less than for any other efficient frontier ana...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP G fund as only bond fund
Replies: 74
Views: 8523

Re: TSP G fund as only bond fund

T's conclusion, "If you go all G for your bonds, then one can infer that you think you know better than the people who designed the L Funds," seemed like quite a stretch to me. Is that a fair inference? I don't think so. So, my original post was essentially poking fun at the idea that my decision 8...