Search found 7942 matches

by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I know market timing is a fool's game but...
Replies: 59
Views: 4469

Re: I know market timing is a fool's game but...

I suggest that you cut your risk to a level that you are comfortable with and stay at that level. This is not timing, it’s adjusting to your tolerance for risk. If you have a low tolerance then you may need to save more.
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Disciplined with finances, but not so with diet
Replies: 217
Views: 9583

Re: Disciplined with finances, but not so with diet

As a geriatrician I worry when one of my patients starts to lose weight and I make every effort to try to reverse that trend while looking for an illness that is not otherwise manifest. That's the takeaway from the Psychology Today opinion piece. Bogleheads should add the following to their IPS: “I...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Disciplined with finances, but not so with diet
Replies: 217
Views: 9583

Re: Disciplined with finances, but not so with diet

Based on a recent study, a BMI in the range 22.5 to 25 minimizes mortality. If 15 pounds puts you below 25 then it's more than you need to minimize mortality. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3806201/ I read the article and some of its references and I did not come away with the conclus...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I get umbrella liability insurance?
Replies: 53
Views: 4194

Re: Should I get umbrella liability insurance?

[*]i I guess I'll be the contrarian and say that "everyone" does not need umbrella insurance. IMO you need to make an honest assessment of your exposure to liability in your life and make a decision based on that. In my case, I go without because: 1. I drive <4k miles/year. I have maxed out auto lia...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Disciplined with finances, but not so with diet
Replies: 217
Views: 9583

Re: Disciplined with finances, but not so with diet

Any bogleheads any diet wisdom? I've always been disciplined with saving money but can't seem to apply the same discipline to my diet. I have tried weight watchers, Jenny Craig, beach body, keto, my fitness pal...I lack discipline and get hungry. Just this week I decided to start eating the same th...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I get umbrella liability insurance?
Replies: 53
Views: 4194

Re: Should I get umbrella liability insurance?

You can find an example of an application here: https://www.rlicorp.com/pup-apps-rates There are different options for auto limits with RLI. I have mine with them. Just filling out the application caused me to eliminate some liability risks. Probably worth having 1M worth just for the education and ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone raised 3 kids WITHOUT buying a 3-row vehicle?
Replies: 82
Views: 5434

Re: Anyone raised 3 kids WITHOUT buying a 3-row vehicle?

We have 3 kids, ages 6, 4, and one on the way. Current family vehicle is Toyota Prius V with 130k miles. We could fit 3 kids in back using narrow car / booster seats. For camping trips that require a lot of luggage, I could make the gear fit using a roof box and racks. But I'm wondering if I'm bein...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Building Wealth Through Home Equity--Myth or Reality?
Replies: 94
Views: 6026

Re: Building Wealth Through Home Equity--Myth or Reality?

Home ownership is one way to get housing services. It should not be evaluated as an investment. It should be evaluated as a housing service. "While homeownership is unlikely to be a good investment since individual homes tend to be very risky and provide almost no real returns, buying a home does se...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Building Wealth Through Home Equity--Myth or Reality?
Replies: 94
Views: 6026

Re: Building Wealth Through Home Equity--Myth or Reality?

I think it should be evaluated as a service. It serves as a lodging. What is the cheapest way to get your lodging, total lifetime cost plus terminal value in real dollars including opportunity cost? This total[ cost of lodging could be a negative value since you could, in principle, make money on yo...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:22 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Forum software upgrade bug reports and change requests
Replies: 470
Views: 106077

Re: Forum software upgrade bug reports and change requests

The post times on the main page (www.boglehead.org) are 1 hour less than the times in the actual posts.
by tadamsmar
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST [Entry deadline has passed]
Replies: 673
Views: 12167

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Hmmmm. One downside I notice is that one has to read through 13 (presently) pages of guesses to see if someone else has used the one you plan to use. Since the rules (from last year) are that the earliest duplicate submission wins over a later one and you can't change your guess once submitted, it ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:38 am
Bogleheads:

Whatever your strategy, today (until midnight) is the last day to post in this year's contest.

Best wishes.

Taylor
Or your bedtime, whichever comes first. :happy
by tadamsmar
Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

I regularly make the strategic decision to forecast a bear market, because the contest has more bulls than bears. If the market happens to drop, I might win. This year, I was in second place on December 27, but the market went up on the last two days rather than going flat. Going for a bear market ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]
Replies: 137
Views: 20359

Re: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]

You can live and work in Minnehaha WA (with no state income tax) and get many ha-has by shopping just across the state line in Oregon (no sales tax). "If you’re looking to move somewhere and simultaneously save yourself a lot of money down the line, the Washington/Oregon border is definitely a place...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

I don’t know the answer, but it is not unreasonable that there could be some very low probability middle ground between “well behaved” outcomes and outcomes resulting from events of great duress or crisis. I suppose the distribution of returns could, in principle, become bimodal. It seems that colo...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RMD planning
Replies: 19
Views: 1692

Re: RMD planning

So, I did some more poking around. Apparently, if an IRA is left "to the estate", the distributions must be made within 5 years (the estate has no lifespan as would apply if the beneficiary was an actual person). If the distributions are delayed, probate must remain open and taxes filed each year. ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RMD planning
Replies: 19
Views: 1692

Re: RMD planning

I can't find a single web page that says that you are ever required to take an IRA as a lump sum even if the estate was the beneficiary of the IRA. I also cannot determine if you can reverse a blunder by the executor. I'd ask a CPA about this matter, one who had no motive to cover up a blunder. But...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RMD planning
Replies: 19
Views: 1692

Re: RMD planning

The way it was explained to me (by my brother the executor, my SIL the MBA and the probate attorney's office) is that my mom died with some of her monies still in tax-deferred accounts. These accounts were liquidated and thus taxes have to be paid by the heirs. For your information, it is likely yo...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RMD planning
Replies: 19
Views: 1692

Re: RMD planning

Dear Celia; Thank you for your kind words; indeed, this was a rather small amount of money and only a small part of the inheritance/tax-free monies that were distributed. As a family, we are rather averse to talking about money and other uncomfortable topics; I'm the eldest, but I'm pretty sure my ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RMD planning
Replies: 19
Views: 1692

Re: RMD planning

The way it was explained to me (by my brother the executor, my SIL the MBA and the probate attorney's office) is that my mom died with some of her monies still in tax-deferred accounts. These accounts were liquidated and thus taxes have to be paid by the heirs. I'm told I will need to file a schedu...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RMD planning
Replies: 19
Views: 1692

Re: RMD planning

The way it was explained to me (by my brother the executor, my SIL the MBA and the probate attorney's office) is that my mom died with some of her monies still in tax-deferred accounts. These accounts were liquidated and thus taxes have to be paid by the heirs. I'm told I will need to file a schedu...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RMD planning
Replies: 19
Views: 1692

Re: RMD planning

I have a 403B with about 310K in fixed, no cost 7% guaranteed funds
110K in a low cost equity fund in the 403 B
Need for info on the 403B. Is it a variable annuity? What are the terms of the guaranteed payout? Do you have to take withdrawals from it?
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

It has to do with the shape of the normal distribution (bell curve). Except for the minor detail that the normal distribution may not be a good model for the distribution of the S&P500 index. The logic (that the optimal bet is a cut-throat bet) would hold for all probability density functions that ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

It has to do with the shape of the normal distribution (bell curve). Except for the minor detail that the normal distribution may not be a good model for the distribution of the S&P500 index. The logic (that the optimal bet is a cut-throat bet) would hold for all probability density functions that ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

Do you think many players are really strategizing like this? I figure during the first day or two you could easily pick a number and you owned it. Once the thread grew, there was a greater chance that someone else had already selected the same number, so you would need to tweak your original guess....
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

Optimal play is cut-throat because it will have you betting .01 above or below a competing player. You will be maximally taking the gap from another player. Being $0.01 above or below a competing player may work only if you have a single competitor. With 500 competitors, the optimal play is to bet ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fiancée Thinks I'm Putting Too Much Towards Retirement/ Not Enough Towards Short-Term Goals
Replies: 136
Views: 10500

Re: Fiance Thinks I'm Putting Too Much Towards Retirement/ Not Enough Towards Short-Term Goals

Can you borrow from your 401K at a good rate for your 20% home downpayment? That might be a good compromise. Better than a withdrawal because you still retain the ability to replenish.

You just need an adequate plan for retirement. Figuring that out takes some projections.
by tadamsmar
Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Strategies to combat or justify lifestyle creep
Replies: 69
Views: 5050

Re: Strategies to combat or justify lifestyle creep

Is your head fully educated on the matter? https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2017/sedan/st-401702528/cost-to-own/ Might be a good idea to compare true cost to own. Also there is a cheaper Tesla coming out in a year or so, but many the tax credit will go away not sure. This provides a link to loo...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

Some people's elaborate strategies make me wonder: How many of the last 5 or 10 winners used one of these careful strategies, and how many were random guesses? It seems to me that winners often talk about their guess being a rough stab in the dark. I don't think that would tell you much since you d...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

Some people's elaborate strategies make me wonder: How many of the last 5 or 10 winners used one of these careful strategies, and how many were random guesses? It seems to me that winners often talk about their guess being a rough stab in the dark. I don't think that would tell you much since you d...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation in multiple accounts for retirees
Replies: 21
Views: 1360

Re: Asset allocation in multiple accounts for retirees

Rick Ferri sort of agrees with the OP (but mostly for different reasons): https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/21771-ferri-choosing-tax-wise-accounts.html I have my taxable account in stocks and it is becoming difficult to rebalance to my target AA without generating long-term capital ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation in multiple accounts for retirees
Replies: 21
Views: 1360

Re: Asset allocation in multiple accounts for retirees

Not sure any of you will see this, but for those who replied (thank you) : How does one reconcile having funds distributed purely for tax purposes (which many of you seem to do) - so that any account (post tax and/or pre-tax) is given equal weight and used simultaneously - with the concept of havin...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP vs IRA priority help
Replies: 21
Views: 1410

Re: TSP vs IRA priority help

Should I keep my TSP at 60% C, 20% S, 20% G? and rebalance semi quarterly? Is the I fund something I should incorporate? I think quarterly rebalancing is too often, yearly is better. On the assumption that markets have a bit of so-called "momentum". I would include some I fund exposure. The L funds...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP vs IRA priority help
Replies: 21
Views: 1410

Re: TSP vs IRA priority help

Has nothing to do with being "male centric". It's "person earning the income and managing the accounts" centric. I think that being "person earning the income and managing the accounts" centric is a bad idea. But I am not sure exactly what you mean. For accounts at Vanguard, I think it would be a g...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds - 'Herding' Behavior?
Replies: 20
Views: 2266

Re: Index Funds - 'Herding' Behavior?

Came across this article this morning on 'Marketwatch'... "Bogle noted that broad market index funds are dominated by only three asset management firms — Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street Global." What say you? https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d4cf5f04-0a49-11e9-a3e6-97c0e968351a-2019-01-04 In...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP vs IRA priority help
Replies: 21
Views: 1410

Re: TSP vs IRA priority help

My husband is in federal service and we try to max out his TSP retirement first. It’s because the expense ratios are incredibly low and the G Fund is unique. I think only Admiral Shares at Vanguard might be a slightly better expense ratio. When you leave for civilian service, you can’t be sure your...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recent Engineering College Graduate can’t get job interviews, needs advice
Replies: 145
Views: 10773

Re: Recent Engineering College Graduate can’t get job interviews, needs advice

I had a resume where I left off my GPA. I listed some of my good course grades and I listed my GRE or SAT because they were high. I did have some summer and work/study experience in my field. This was decades ago where it was more common to just send paper resumes to employers. I'd try smaller compa...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

Similar to the stock market, you are not the only person who knows this strategy. How does that change things? If everyone played an optimal strategy then the game would reach financial equilibrium. Everyone would wait till the last few seconds before the deadline to bet. No one would have informat...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two years from retirement - what's more important?
Replies: 57
Views: 2581

Re: Two years from retirement - what's more important?

Carol, my only concern with your plan is not getting enough return to maintain portfolio value. Will you have a pension? What will be your initial withdrawal rate? There really are no perfect strategies when it comes to investing because every decision involves some sort of compromise. An allocatio...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

I have noticed this for a long time, but I've also seen "cute" or "why not" guesses that likely aren't meant to be the closing price, like 2222.22 or 2345.67. Since no-one knows what will happen, all you have to do is make a guess (reasonable or not) to enter. Those who don't enter won't even have ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

I have noticed this for a long time, but I've also seen "cute" or "why not" guesses that likely aren't meant to be the closing price, like 2222.22 or 2345.67. Since no-one knows what will happen, all you have to do is make a guess (reasonable or not) to enter. Those who don't enter won't even have ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

I have noticed this for a long time, but I've also seen "cute" or "why not" guesses that likely aren't meant to be the closing price, like 2222.22 or 2345.67. Since no-one knows what will happen, all you have to do is make a guess (reasonable or not) to enter. Those who don't enter won't even have ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

Given how low-stakes and wildly unpredictable this contest is, I'd venture to say anybody betting .01 over another person intentionally is just being mean. One year I went to the trouble to try to estimate an optimal bet, but I did not bet the optimal 0.01 above an opponent. I gave them some room. ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two years from retirement - what's more important?
Replies: 57
Views: 2581

Re: Two years from retirement - what's more important?

I really love the TSP offerings. I do too, but I dislike their withdrawal options. I keep hearing 2019 is supposed to bring some flexibility, but haven't checked to see if that actually happens. I keep $3k in my TSP G fund (that's my entire TSP account right now). I did that to keep the option to r...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two years from retirement - what's more important?
Replies: 57
Views: 2581

Re: Two years from retirement - what's more important?

I think you are confusing ends and means. The most important goal is to cover your retirement expenses. Growth and preservation are means to achieve the end. I think 100% in L Income Fund is a good choice. I am assuming you have saved enough. Before retirement capital accumulation is an important m...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two years from retirement - what's more important?
Replies: 57
Views: 2581

Re: Two years from retirement - what's more important?

I think you are confusing ends and means. The most important goal is to cover your retirement expenses. Growth and preservation are means to achieve the end. I think 100% in L Income Fund is a good choice. I am assuming you have saved enough. Before retirement capital accumulation is an important me...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1688

Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

The opening statement of the Bogleheads Contest: "Welcome to the 2019 Boglehead Contest designed to demonstrate how difficult it is to forecast future stock prices." demonstrates how difficult it is to understand certain games. Entering the best forecast of the SP500 will not optimize your chances o...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is 3.5% possible over next 30 years
Replies: 45
Views: 7263

Re: Is 3.5% possible over next 30 years

Have you cosidered focusing on you withdrawal rate requirements instead of returns?

Or using some of the available Monte Carlo simulations?

The approach in the OP seems like starting with the raw materials and reinventing the wheel.