Search found 7666 matches

by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36153

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Suddenly, tilting from ~50/50 to 100% US seems like an extreme position , requiring a robust rational that encompasses market theory and data. I'm not against tilting for good reasons, but the argument needs to come from the right starting point. I suppose it all depends on how you define "extreme....
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36153

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Here the telltale chart for international vs US: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/images/Viewpoints/II/international_stock_update_chart2.jpg Bogle omits this one from his famous presentation "The Telltale Chart": https://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20020626.html And how ar...
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36153

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Here the telltale chart for international vs US: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/images/Viewpoints/II/international_stock_update_chart2.jpg Bogle omits this one from his famous presentation "The Telltale Chart": https://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20020626.html Source? Th...
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36153

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Here the telltale chart for international vs US:

Image

Bogle omits this one from his famous presentation "The Telltale Chart":

https://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20020626.html
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 11963

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

You are comparing leveraged apples to apples when you compare mortgaged real estate to stock investing. You could juice the return on stocks with leverage. You could buy some stock and leverage it up to the point where the dividends equaled the loan interest. You could hock your house and buy stock ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 11963

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

This shows the percentage of homes in various markets where rent covers fixed costs: https://www.zillow.com/research/where-rent-covers-mortgage-15624/ But this does not include maintenance or opportunity costs for the down payment and assumes the property is always rented. Still not clear how often ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 18, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 11963

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

One thing about DIY real estate management, you may get old and not want to do it anymore or be unable to do it well. You can try to find a rental agent that is reliable and not too expensive. The ideal situation is to have kids that you trust who want to take over. Or you can sell out and pay the c...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 18, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 11963

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

I think this is a pretty good list of what being your own rental agent entails:

https://www.millhouseproperties.com/man ... -services/

Does not include your own liability insurance or taxes. An umbrella policy will cover a few rentals. Not sure what happens if you make a claim.
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Underperform the Market
Replies: 48
Views: 4477

Re: How to Underperform the Market

It would be interesting if there was a mutual fund that absorbed the inflows/outflows from other funds of the same mutual fund company. It could have a very low fee because it reduces the need/cost for the mutual fund company to go trade in the market. It would be contrarian to the relative inflows ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Underperform the Market
Replies: 48
Views: 4477

Re: How to Underperform the Market

Dalbar has serious methodological flaws, Wade Pfau finds: "However, my concern is that the quantitative results of the study do not properly measure the underperformance of investors. DALBAR’s method for calculating average investor returns unfairly understates these returns. There is a methodologic...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Underperform the Market
Replies: 48
Views: 4477

Re: How to Underperform the Market

The claims usual cite the Dalbar study, and suggest that the average investor loses because their emotions cause them to buy high and sell low, or something to that effect. My logic says that it insufficient just buy high and sell low to lose money where high and low are predicted on past data. My ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Underperform the Market
Replies: 48
Views: 4477

Re: How to Underperform the Market

The claims usual cite the Dalbar study, and suggest that the average investor loses because their emotions cause them to buy high and sell low, or something to that effect. My logic says that it insufficient just buy high and sell low to lose money where high and low are predicted on past data. My ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36153

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Depends on your dating of the Fall of Rome ;-). Note that the Roman Republic lasted a lot shorter time. The Roman Empire was very different - it was deliberately multicultural (making citizens of prominent members of *all* the subject peoples) and latterly Rome was capital in name only - the real c...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36153

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Depends on your dating of the Fall of Rome ;-). Note that the Roman Republic lasted a lot shorter time. The Roman Empire was very different - it was deliberately multicultural (making citizens of prominent members of *all* the subject peoples) and latterly Rome was capital in name only - the real c...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36153

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

HuckFinn,

You need to quit diversifying.

If you diversify, there is anyways something performing badly.

Put is all in a savings account and ignore inflation so that you will be able to believe that everything is going up.
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to make a withdrawal from a Vanguard Individual 401k?
Replies: 3
Views: 275

Re: How to make a withdrawal from a Vanguard Individual 401k?

I think I figured it out. There is a Vanguard form I had to fill out. One of the forms here for Individual 401(k): https://personal.vanguard.com/us/litfulfillment/ELFMainResults?cat=MAFM&subCat1=BYSL&subCat2= I used the form for a single distribution. Had to snailmail it in. I guess I will know in a...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to make a withdrawal from a Vanguard Individual 401k?
Replies: 3
Views: 275

How to make a withdrawal from a Vanguard Individual 401k?

I logged into Vanguard the regular way and the account is listed. But when I try to make a withdrawal, it says I am not authorized to transact. If I log into the Vanguard small business account, it shows nothing about making a withdrawal. Is there some kind of special way to do this? I need to do RM...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)
Replies: 46
Views: 4371

Re: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)

My best that you did not list

Fiction:
Thirteen Moons by Frazier
Islands in the Stream by Hemingway

Non-Fiction:
Learned Optimism
A Manual for Living by Epictetus https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/00625 ... bl_vppi_i1
T. S. Elliot complete poems and plays
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Key West Family Vacation - February
Replies: 25
Views: 1658

Re: Key West Family Vacation - February

Had no idea Key West would be such a passionate "Go!" No, don't go! topic. We've traveled quite a bit and our kids are pretty worldly for their age so I'm not worried about them seeing something inappropriate in a storefront window. They've been to Ptown in the height of the summer and had a blast....
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Key West Family Vacation - February
Replies: 25
Views: 1658

Re: Key West Family Vacation - February

Zachary Taylor State Park is a good place to hang out.

http://www.fortzacharytaylor.com/
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 3922

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

So basically the pooled studies, American and European, have not found enough evidence to say that low-level radon exposure (100 Bq/m^3) causes lung cancer. Apparently not enough evidence to even say that it is correlated. The only conclusion they can draw is that low-level radon exposure (100 Bq/m...
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 3922

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

It seems like the language is carefully chosen. Why don't they just flat say "low-level radon exposure (100 Bq/m^3) causes lung cancer"? Why is that not the conclusion of the pooled study. Why say associated and not say causes? Associations may not be causal. Maybe the people who don't test or reme...
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 3922

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

There is direct evidence that low levels (100 Bq/m3 or 2.7 pCi/L) of radon lead to lung cancer: https://www.epa.gov/radon/health-risk-radon#iowa https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2014-08/documents/euro_rn_pooling.pdf Caoimhin Connell and others seem to ignore the direct evidence. Connell sa...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 3922

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

But if your next door neighbor had a high enough level to need mitigation then you should test your home. The EPA discourages that sort of conditional thinking, they just recommend testing. In the house that originally triggered the concern about radon: "state health officials found radon levels of...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 3922

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

One of the biggest scams any homeowner can ever experience. Like others said...radon is everywhere. When you invite someone into your home to test for radon levels...how many times do you think they tell you its ok? Negative tests happen, as reported on this thread 3 hours before your post: https:/...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 3922

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

Sola dosis fact venenum. The Dose makes the Poison. This basic principle of toxicology is credited to Paracelsus. "All things are poison and nothing is without poison; only the dose makes a thing not a poison." So what dose makes radon a poison and at what level is it safe? Here's a table Table 8.4...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 3922

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

The laws do not protect you from buying a home with high levels of radon. The law provides little or no protection. https://radonresources.com/blog/are-there-state-radon-laws-that-require-testing-and-mitigation/ The link above provides a list of states that require warnings. I have bought homes in o...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 3922

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

A basic look at what Radon is: Radon - Periodic Table of Videos: https://youtu.be/mTuC_LrEfbU Radon (Rn 86) is given off as a gas from the radioactive decay of Radium (Ra 88). Radium-226 -> Radon-222 + α α particle is Helium nucleus He.2+ Radon is also radioactive and decays. Half life is 3.8 days....
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 3922

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

I have seen a strategy recommended where you buy a cheap kit first. Then, if the reading is between 2 and 8 pCi/L, you follow up with a more expensive test that is more accurate.
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 3922

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

What about other sources of radiation? According to this article, 8 Foods You Didn't Know Are Radioactive Bananas have 3,520 pCi/kg Potatoes 4,500 pCi/kg Carrots 6,800 pCi/kg Lima Beans 4,630 pCi/kg Red Meat 3,000 pCi/kg Low-Sodium Salt 3,000 pCi/kg Beer 390 pCi/kg Brazil Nuts 6,600 pCi/kg These nu...
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Strategies for Selling a Rental Property - Not Section 1031 Eligible
Replies: 11
Views: 783

Re: Tax Strategies for Selling a Rental Property - Not Section 1031 Eligible

As for the alternatives to 1031 exchanges....I'm not going to be able to do those, for a variety of reasons (needing the liquidity, wanting to get out of real estate as an investment, etc.) Do you need liquidity or do you need all the cash now? You are already in real estate if you have investments...
by tadamsmar
Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Strategies for Selling a Rental Property - Not Section 1031 Eligible
Replies: 11
Views: 783

Re: Tax Strategies for Selling a Rental Property - Not Section 1031 Eligible

Just FYI, you can do a 1031 exchange to an investment property where the arrangements do not require you to be a landlord. There is a list of choices here that are probably not exhaustive (down the page a bit, answer from Bill Exetor): https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/104/topics/436683-choices-o...
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The stock market is shrinking.
Replies: 68
Views: 7283

Re: The stock market is shrinking.

The biggest private firm is Samsung. :?: It is the largest holding in my emerging markets fund at 5.53% of the portfolio. I was referring to Samsung Holdings. But now I see that 70% of their revenues come from the publicly traded Samsung Electronics. So, much of the earnings growth would be capture...
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The stock market is shrinking.
Replies: 68
Views: 7283

Re: The stock market is shrinking.

Seems like earnings would be more important than just totaling up the number of small companies. I suppose this takes some earnings and earnings growth off the table. The biggest private firm is Samsung. If it were traded, it would probably have a cap value exceeding Apple (the traded firm with the ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 114
Views: 11496

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

I kind of get his point. Passive index investors generally invest in stocks based on market cap so they are heavily into a few, large cap companies.So the large cap sector is getting crowded which will lead to lower results? What's the solution? Spend lots of time researching undervalued small and ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 114
Views: 11496

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

I kind of get his point. Passive index investors generally invest in stocks based on market cap so they are heavily into a few, large cap companies.So the large cap sector is getting crowded which will lead to lower results? What's the solution? Spend lots of time researching undervalued small and ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 114
Views: 11496

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

"However, the success of passive investing is premised on the idea that there's lots of "smart money" out there doing research and moving money around to keep valuations in check." The assumption is merely that we can't do better. Don't get too impressed with what the "smart money" can do. There are...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 114
Views: 11496

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

What's interesting in the Vanguard response is that it tacitly accepts the premise that passive index investing can cause a bubble. They are only saying that the amount is too low now. It's a non-denial denial. However, the growth of passive/index investing is now dramatic, and as investors increas...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 114
Views: 11496

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

What's interesting in the Vanguard response is that it tacitly accepts the premise that passive index investing can cause a bubble. They are only saying that the amount is too low now. It's a non-denial denial. However, the growth of passive/index investing is now dramatic, and as investors increas...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jul 29, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 114
Views: 11496

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

Curious to hear thoughts on this article from Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4191148-passive-index-investing-bubble-bound-burst Summary In the last decade, trillions of dollars have flown into assets irrespective of both fundamentals and price. Passive Index Investing can happen wi...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 114
Views: 11496

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

Curious to hear thoughts on this article from Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4191148-passive-index-investing-bubble-bound-burst Summary In the last decade, trillions of dollars have flown into assets irrespective of both fundamentals and price. Passive Index Investing can happen wi...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 114
Views: 11496

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

Curious to hear thoughts on this article from Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4191148-passive-index-investing-bubble-bound-burst Summary In the last decade, trillions of dollars have flown into assets irrespective of both fundamentals and price. Passive Index Investing can happen wi...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 114
Views: 11496

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

Because of changes in index construction mechanics, historical index returns are misleading. Absolutely. You bet. Just look at the gaping chasm that opened up between the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund and the Bloomberg Barclay's Aggregate Index after 2009, when the fund switched to the Bloo...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 114
Views: 11496

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

Informed investors seeking a margin of safety should hunt for stocks that have been largely ignored and excluded by passive index/ETF products, especially those with high insider ownership[/list]. What stocks are excluded? I hunted and could not find any. They might as well tell us to invest in a u...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LTC strategy: make health your hobby
Replies: 38
Views: 2995

Re: LTC strategy: make health your hobby

Healthy individuals might ironically be more in need of care, as living a long life also means experiencing greater odds for physical or mental decline as well.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2 ... ad56584ceb
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Your age in bonds?
Replies: 57
Views: 6443

Re: Your age in bonds?

According to this article: "Using the basic rule of thumb, a 65-year-old retiree with $1 million in investments would keep $650,000 in bonds and $350,000 in stocks. But say that retiree also has Social Security benefits valued at $300,000. That would raise the overall portfolio value to $1.3 million...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Draft a will with legalzoom or other online legal help
Replies: 101
Views: 9545

Re: Draft a will with legalzoom or other online legal help

You "have investment in Roth IRA, 401K, 529 Plan, etc. accounts worth around $1 million." Do lawyers even have to expertise to advise you on how to handle those? Do they typically do that? It's typically best that those do not go to the estate. The will only covers the estate. I used a lawyer for m...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting antsy with indexing? Reporter doing story.
Replies: 12
Views: 2946

Re: Getting antsy with indexing? Reporter doing story.

I'm fascinated with the idea that people actually getting antsy with indexing. Can't wait to read the article. Indexing is fine Cap weighting aftera 9 year bull market is scary. Full disclosure::: I am uncertain that is the reason why they are antsy .It is however why I am. Seems to me that getting...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Radon
Replies: 29
Views: 1838

Re: Radon

You will probably have to disclose the positive test if you ever sell and do not remediate. Check on PA residential disclosure statements. Disclosure of positive tests is on the form I found for PA: http://www.donaldjweiss.com/Sellers-Property-Disclosure-Statement.pdf if you have smokers in the home...