Search found 8211 matches

by tadamsmar
Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to read prior to visiting ancient sites in Athens?
Replies: 17
Views: 918

Re: What to read prior to visiting ancient sites in Athens?

The video here on Athens is good. It narrates the history with images of sights in the city:

https://www.amazon.com/Athens/dp/B078HK ... way&sr=8-8
by tadamsmar
Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to read prior to visiting ancient sites in Athens?
Replies: 17
Views: 918

Re: What to read prior to visiting ancient sites in Athens?

Just wanted to mention the hop on hop off buses: https://www.getyourguide.com/-l91/-tc9/?cmp=ga&campaign_id=768360934&adgroup_id=44610146609&target_id=kwd-445022468391&loc_physical_ms=9009669&match_type=e&ad_id=192245963187&keyword=athens%20bus%20hop%20on%20hop%20off&ad_position=1t2&feed_item_id=&pl...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to read prior to visiting ancient sites in Athens?
Replies: 17
Views: 918

Re: What to read prior to visiting ancient sites in Athens?

Plutarch really gives a feel for ancient greek society, more so than Thucydides who is focused on major events. Epictetus' Enchiridion is very short. The bit about equating trying to move up in society as something that can be bought with effort just as lettuce can be was interesting. Epictetus is ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short-term money needs for Executor of Estate
Replies: 42
Views: 2594

Re: Short-term money needs for Executor of Estate

I almost skipped the mortgage payment itself but the heirs (i am not one) asked to pay it so they all contributed (only a couple 100 each). While that isn't quiet right. Why was it not quite right? I think that would just be a gift to the estate, not inherently wrong. How did you account for it in ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short-term money needs for Executor of Estate
Replies: 42
Views: 2594

Re: Short-term money needs for Executor of Estate

That assumes you have heirs that can and will get along. Have you missed the 3 separate nightmare threads where one won't sell? At least many in here told an heir to walk away from a 50k inheritance rather than deal with an unreasonable sibling. I think tod is great if you have only 1 heir and othe...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short-term money needs for Executor of Estate
Replies: 42
Views: 2594

Re: Short-term money needs for Executor of Estate

In our case there was about 5k liquid and the rest of the estate is tied uo in the home. I was told by the lawyer to simply not pay Bill's that arent nec to keep the house functioning. In order of priority those are insurance, electricity, water. I almost skipped the mortgage payment itself but the...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short-term money needs for Executor of Estate
Replies: 42
Views: 2594

Re: Short-term money needs for Executor of Estate

That assumes you have heirs that can and will get along. Have you missed the 3 separate nightmare threads where one won't sell? At least many in here told an heir to walk away from a 50k inheritance rather than deal with an unreasonable sibling. I think tod is great if you have only 1 heir and othe...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short-term money needs for Executor of Estate
Replies: 42
Views: 2594

Re: Short-term money needs for Executor of Estate

I guess you are describing a situation where there are no liquid funds available in the estate, but there are expenses that need to be covered. I am assuming the estate has sufficient illiquid assets. I think the kosher thing to do is to arrange a loan to the estate. If I was the executor and had th...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 346
Views: 32242

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I was a landlord. There were lots of repairs and renovations. Your OP was nowhere near a proper accounting of the return and risks of being a landlord. There is exposure to liability and negligence claims. I have never met a landlord who consistently followed building codes and other regulations and...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard security
Replies: 40
Views: 3174

Re: Vanguard security

Vanguard still doesn’t recognize my laptop no matter how many times I tried. However, Vanguard recognizes my iPads without issues. I think Vanguard’s IT system needs help from Fidelity. Maybe it has something to do with your browser security settings. I wanted Vanguard to unrecognize my laptop and ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you have an umbrella policy?
Replies: 289
Views: 35016

Re: Umbrella insurance..who has it? Is it recommended?

I don't understand why you keep looking at everything but the actual financial impact on the injured parties. I think you should actually look at it. This was not a judgment from court. It was a settlement. No one knows what a jury would have done. The driver settled for what was probably insurance...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you have an umbrella policy?
Replies: 289
Views: 35016

Re: Umbrella insurance..who has it? Is it recommended?

You seem to think the financial impact on the injured party makes no difference in the size of the settlement. How could that possibly make sense? No one said that. But look at the structure of the settlement. You didn't produce a case where an individual had to pay that versus a city or company. I...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you have an umbrella policy?
Replies: 289
Views: 35016

Re: Umbrella insurance..who has it? Is it recommended?

I paralyzed 25-year-old recently got three settlements totaling 4.8 million: Did you see who paid what? The drunk driver paid 100k of that. You seem to think the actual financial impact on the injured parties makes no difference in the size of the settlement. How could that possibly make sense? Tha...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you have an umbrella policy?
Replies: 289
Views: 35016

Re: Umbrella insurance..who has it? Is it recommended?

500 people/year are struck by lightning in the US, but we dont worry about that. We're still searching for an example where a 1M settlement was rejected and then the jury issued a larger judgement, against an individual who was driving responsibly, like a Boglehead would (ie not texting or DUI) If ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best source for buying Gold Coins
Replies: 55
Views: 3829

Re: Best source for buying Gold Coins

I’m looking to buy my kids some gold coins as presents. I already have them in VG index funds 95%. They are around 30 yrs of age. My thought was for fun gifts instead of cash or clothes for holidays. Any suggestions of best source with least fees to buy some American eagles? If it matters I’m usual...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you have an umbrella policy?
Replies: 289
Views: 35016

Re: Umbrella insurance..who has it? Is it recommended?

If you think more than 1M umbrella is necessary you should also be thinking about dash cams, and in detail about what your risks are, as in the above post about RLI. Actually, I have umbrella insurance with RLI. RLI has helped inform me of what my risks are. They seem to monitor my actions in real-...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Preventing Identity Theft
Replies: 46
Views: 3504

Re: Preventing Identity Theft

I also go along with the idea of having a second checking account with a perpetual low balance for some kinds of expenditures. If you have a relatively large balance in your regular checking account, then you have a risk of someone getting a check and using that information to hack into the account...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Preventing Identity Theft
Replies: 46
Views: 3504

Re: Preventing Identity Theft

I also go along with the idea of having a second checking account with a perpetual low balance for some kinds of expenditures. If you have a relatively large balance in your regular checking account, then you have a risk of someone getting a check and using that information to hack into the account...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Preventing Identity Theft
Replies: 46
Views: 3504

Re: Preventing Identity Theft

I think it's best to have a 3-pronged attack with 3 goals: 1. Preventing identity theft 2. Detecting it early when it has occurred 3. Getting reimbursed when it leads to theft of assets When possible, choose fiduciaries for your investments that have a good fraud reimbursement policy. Live up to you...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Improving the TSP [for current participants]
Replies: 304
Views: 49099

Re: Improving the TSP [for current participants]

Among the things I'll be looking for are making sure there it will not be administratively burdensome for participants to make withdrawals. I am not sure exactly what you are referring to here. TSP withdrawals are relatively difficult because they can't be made online. They involve paper forms and ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: very concerned about stock and bond movement
Replies: 26
Views: 2038

Re: very concerned about stock and bond movement

hello, I was last here several months ago when at the time my allocation was roughly 45% stocks and 55% bonds via 35% voo, 10% vpu, 45% bnd and 10% vglt. Im currently 50% BND and 50% VOO and plan to use 2-5% rebalancing bands. my huge worry is I see bonds and stocks moving very fast up together, no...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 30, 2019 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: G fund
Replies: 19
Views: 3028

Re: G fund

I am estimating how much money I want to have in cash as I hit my retirement date. To guard against any market risks, I have estimated that I want to have about $103K in cash (plus my pension and SSA benefits). This amount will equate to about 2 yrs of expenses. My game plan is to redirect my last ...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 29, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

B&H worked during the Great Depression. Japan is a good counterpoint, but so far, the U.S. stock market has always gone higher. I think the notion that Japan is a counterpoint may be a bit of a myth. The facts: The Nikki peaked in 1989 and had 50% decline over about 2 years and then meandered aroun...
by tadamsmar
Sun May 26, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

A list of all the whipsaws using his strategy over the last three decades. The UER filter has been very dependable. Jan 2019 Nov 2002 Mar 2002 Sep 2000 Nov 1991 Aug to Nov 1990 Jan & Feb 1990 In addition to UER, Willthrill81 is triggering on the relative strength signals that depend on the mutual f...
by tadamsmar
Sun May 26, 2019 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

A list of all the whipsaws using his strategy over the last three decades. The UER filter has been very dependable. Jan 2019 Nov 2002 Mar 2002 Sep 2000 Nov 1991 Aug to Nov 1990 Jan & Feb 1990 In addition to UER, Willthrill81 is triggering on the relative strength signals that depend on the mutual f...
by tadamsmar
Sun May 26, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Paul Merriman was an advocate of 100% TF investing decades ago and he has abandoned it. Retirement investing typically needs to be sustained for five or more decades. Is there any evidence that a large percentage of 100% TF investors stick with it? You don't have Mr. Merriman's investment portfolio...
by tadamsmar
Sat May 25, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I find it both interesting and amusing that many are quick to point out the potential downside of TF, but they look the other way when it comes to things like sticking with BAH through the Great Depression, the Japanese stock market, etc. As I say frequently, all roads carry risk. As you have point...
by tadamsmar
Sat May 25, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I find it both interesting and amusing that many are quick to point out the potential downside of TF, but they look the other way when it comes to things like sticking with BAH through the Great Depression, the Japanese stock market, etc. As I say frequently, all roads carry risk. As you have point...
by tadamsmar
Sat May 25, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

At least professional trend followers seem to be concerned about the effectiveness of trend following going forward: https://www.winton.com/davids-views/july-2018/wintons-david-harding-on-turning-away-from-trend-following-risk-net That link is interesting, David Harding's view is that there is not ...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 24, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who killed value?
Replies: 23
Views: 2549

Re: Who killed value?

It’s the law of averages. The gambler’s fallacy has to be true part of the the time due to regression of mean reversion.

My avatar warned us that the excess return of a value speculator is zero.
by tadamsmar
Fri May 24, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I addressed what I believe is the other part your question further up the thread. I didn't specify it in the OP, but if VBMFX has had higher relative strength (as measured by PV, the tool I'm using rather than calculating all of this manually; consult it if you want more details on the specifics) t...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 24, 2019 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

OMG...Some of you need to just think before you ask questions. His plan is based on two vectors. The economy UER has to be in his favor and the stock market (SPX) has to be in a fairly long trend using a 7mo SMA for him to be invested. He does not use the 7mo SMA. He uses the 7mo relative strength ...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 23, 2019 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

You use many undefined terms: "relative advantage", "relative strength", "relative performance". Where are those terms defined? I'm referring to the same concept every time. The relative strength momentum model invests in the best performing assets in the model based on each asset's past return. ht...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 23, 2019 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

In the OP you said you were using the 7-month moving average: To put it simply, this system calls me to own stocks unless both (1) the U.S. unemployment rate (UER) is above its 12 month moving average and (2) all available stock indexes are below their 7 month moving average. But I guess you wrong a...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 23, 2019 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Also, you seem to be using a generic product to compute relative performance. Are you ignoring er when you compute relative performance? Are you really using the actual relative performance (net fees) of your investment options to make your decisions? What exactly is the "relative performance" calc...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 23, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Looks like you ignore expense ratio (er). You just go with the investment with the highest 7-month trailing relative performance. If I did that in my 401K, I might end up investing in a fund with a 1.06% er or one with .015 er. Also, you seem to be using a generic product to compute relative perform...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 23, 2019 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Checking this strategy and the data for the bear market a decade ago: when would the numbers have indicated to sell out of U.S. stocks and when would they have indicated to buy them back? EDITED: Looks like one of the required criteria indicated that late 2007 was time to sell equities and then buy...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 22, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you have hardwood or tile in your kitchen?
Replies: 70
Views: 7475

Re: Do you have hardwood or tile in your kitchen?

Debating to redo our first level and my wife is set on having hardwoods in our kitchen. I'm worried about spills and water. I know it looks beautiful, but wondering how practical it is to have hardwoods in the kitchen. Curious what my fellow bogleheads have? Based on a small sample, most kitchens w...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 22, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regression to the Mean - and our money
Replies: 16
Views: 1592

Re: Regression to the Mean - and our money

There are two distinct concepts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_reversion_(finance) Kahneman was concerned with the first. The OP has confused these two. A lot of people confuse the two. The yearly returns of a hypothetical stock that foll...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 22, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regression to the Mean - and our money
Replies: 16
Views: 1592

Re: Regression to the Mean - and our money

The average actively invested dollar underperforms a passively invested dollar in the same stock market because of fees/costs. This has nothing to do with regression to the mean. It's simple arithmetic. See here:

viewtopic.php?p=4556126#p4557088
by tadamsmar
Wed May 22, 2019 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 1:16 pm
...I would know that I would be very tempted to increase my stock allocation during long bull markets and decrease it during bear markets.
Are you unaware that this happens automatically when you buy and hold?
by tadamsmar
Wed May 22, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

...I do want to point out that one can buy products that are guaranteed not to lose money (balance must equal last years balance) for less than the 2% under performance that was acceptable to the original poster. Can you provide a specific product that guarantees less than 2% under performance? I t...
by tadamsmar
Tue May 21, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP modernization implementation date: 9/15/2019
Replies: 24
Views: 2700

Re: TSP modernization implementation date: 9/15/2019

Note that the Sept improvements do nothing for non spouse beneficiaries of participants (or beneficiaries of surviving spouses) since they are still not eligible for a "beneficiary participation account", which is limited to spousal beneficiaries. A non spouse beneficiary who does not promptly elec...
by tadamsmar
Tue May 21, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Payable On Death Account to Complement Will
Replies: 66
Views: 3450

Re: Payable On Death Account to Compliment Will

You should look into adding the "per stirpes" prefix to the primary beneficiaries. Does he want that? Does Vanguard support that?
by tadamsmar
Mon May 20, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance
Replies: 110
Views: 5518

Re: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance

Larry says consider an allocation to a diversified trend following strategy. Some of the trend followers who post here are all-in with a DIY strategy. Not sure if their strategy is diversified. I find Larry unclear on what he means by a diversified trend following strategy. What distinction is he ma...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 20, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance
Replies: 110
Views: 5518

Re: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance

A few on this thread seem to be doing what Swerdroe actually said we should do: "....consider including an allocation to a diversified trend-following strategy, usually in the form of a managed futures fund (such as AQR Managed Futures Strategy Fund), as it has historically provided insurance agains...
by tadamsmar
Sun May 19, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?
Replies: 106
Views: 7132

Re: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?

What makes you think an SUV is safer? Their handling characteristics are crap. http://www.accessmagazine.org/fall-2002/suvs-really-safer-cars/ Probably just pay a small premium and buy midsized cars. That 2002 article applies to 20-year-old vehicles. All vehicles after the 2011 model year have elec...
by tadamsmar
Sun May 19, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 678
Views: 41386

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

...I do want to point out that one can buy products that are guaranteed not to lose money (balance must equal last years balance) for less than the 2% under performance that was acceptable to the original poster. Can you provide a specific product that guarantees less than 2% under performance? I t...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 17, 2019 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?
Replies: 106
Views: 7132

Re: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?

Is there any truth to this table from a MMM blog post? https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/nhtsa_car_types.jpg It seems to say that mid to full-size cars are generally safer than SUVs. The full blog is here: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/06/07/safety-is-an-expensive-ill...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 15, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Regulate Office Temperature
Replies: 31
Views: 2216

Re: Regulate Office Temperature

If there is a bulk ice dispenser in your office, you could use one of these or similar: https://www.etsy.com/listing/603150517/12v-portable-air-conditioner-cooler-30?gpla=1&gao=1&&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=shopping_us_ts1-a-electronics_and_accessories-gadgets&utm_custom1=67e764d9...