Search found 7479 matches

by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing
Replies: 6
Views: 968

Re: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing

The question I have is have there been cases where the stolen funds have not been reimbursed? The only ones I have heard of involved the Federal Thrift Savings Plan (TSP). I think they use to allow online withdrawals, but that is no longer possible. As far as I know, the TSP still has a policy of n...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing
Replies: 6
Views: 968

Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing

But the crime that might be most devastating – where many victims probably keep their biggest pile of money — is brokerage account takeovers. Javelin says that in 2016, such crimes accounted for only 2% of existing non card fraud. In 2017, that swelled to 7% — more the tripling in one year. https:/...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the impact of no more Roth recharacterization?
Replies: 26
Views: 2095

What's the impact of no more Roth recharacterization?

Has anyone tried to quantify the impact of this tax law change which came into effect on Dec 31, 2017 for Roth conversions after that date.

I think Roth conversions have been kind of borderline worthwhile for some of us anyway.
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you use the "4% rule" during retirement?
Replies: 68
Views: 8183

Re: How many of you use the "4% rule" during retirement?

To be clear, I'm referring to withdrawing 4% of your portfolio during the first year, then in the following years increasing the dollar amount according to the inflation rate. When it's mentioned as a rule of thumb for starting to answer "when can we retire?" questions, the discussion often turns t...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Three Fund Portfolio Excluding TSP?
Replies: 28
Views: 2558

Re: Three Fund Portfolio Excluding TSP?

If you don't mind some extra complexity, it may be worthwhile to keep most of your bonds in the TSP and mostly stocks in Roth, because you will eventually have to pay taxes on the Traditional TSP, while you won't for the Roth. Therefore, having investments with the best chance for growth in Roth an...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Three Fund Portfolio Excluding TSP?
Replies: 28
Views: 2558

Re: Three Fund Portfolio Excluding TSP?

If most or all of bonds are in the TSP, would you suggest a 50:50 of F:G? I’ve seen that in other threads. I use a higher percentage of G for my bond allocation (my overall bond allocation for my overall AA). I use something similar to the F:G allocations in the L funds. Those L fund allocations ar...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what is marginal tax rate?
Replies: 23
Views: 1711

Re: what is marginal tax rate?

A person's marginal tax rate is the highest rate at which an individual's maximum earnings (the last dollar of taxable income that an individual earns) is taxed. Your first dollar of taxable income is taxed at the lowest rate. When your income hits the second tax bracket, THOSE dollars are taxed at...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Form 709 details confirmation
Replies: 5
Views: 528

Re: Form 709 details confirmation

This thread was very helpful to me. I used the example here to fill out the form: http://www.mymoneyblog.com/completed-sample-irs-form-709.html except for the Part 2 tax computation. The OP provides an examples of answers for all of Part 2 for a 2017 gift. The for example assumes you have a spouse a...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dental chews for dogs....useful?
Replies: 36
Views: 1920

Re: Dental chews for dogs....useful?

The VOHC recommends brushing daily. This one brand of chews is clinically proven to be as effective as 2/7ths of the recommended optimal brushing. When fed daily. Milk-Bone Brushing Chews are as effective as brushing a dog’s teeth twice a week based on the reduction of tartar build-up. The Veterinar...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone help me explain to my wife...?
Replies: 80
Views: 8984

Re: Can someone help me explain to my wife...?

Her opinion is that we should sell all of our index funds in our Roth IRA, take the profit now in the fund, because surely the bottom will fall out soon. My opinion is that I've always been told to simply contribute the max, do 70/30 for our age range, and then forget about it until age 65. She say...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are Password Managers Really Necessary?
Replies: 129
Views: 7162

Re: Are Password Managers Really Necessary?

-they still have a maximum $50 liability (within 2 days as you point out), and most issuers waive customer liability entirely, even if not reported within the required timeframe. In either situation, the issuer will make the cardholder whole. They do extend the timeframe, but I is there not timefra...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are Password Managers Really Necessary?
Replies: 129
Views: 7162

Re: Are Password Managers Really Necessary?

The situation with regard to credit cards may have changed. Some kind of consumer protection became weakened when they went to chipped cards. The protection may only be weakened if you are at a place that doesn't take chips and you have to swipe (like seemingly every pay-at-the-pump gas station in ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are Password Managers Really Necessary?
Replies: 129
Views: 7162

Re: Are Password Managers Really Necessary?

Alternatives to password managers: 1. Use an encrypted file. 2. Use shorter a "password" within your longer passwords for important accounts and keep the short one secure or never write it down. Even if the file is stolen, it's still somewhat hard to break the passwords. I don't think using secure p...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are Password Managers Really Necessary?
Replies: 129
Views: 7162

Re: Are Password Managers Really Necessary?

The situation with regard to credit cards may have changed. Some kind of consumer protection became weakened when they went to chipped cards. The protection may only be weakened if you are at a place that doesn't take chips and you have to swipe (like seemingly every pay-at-the-pump gas station in ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Being a Disciplined Investor - How do you avoid temptations?
Replies: 41
Views: 2717

Re: Being a Disciplined Investor - How do you avoid temptations?

First of all I don’t think of it as being disciplined. I do a quick estimate of how much I will increase my wealth in percentage terms. Answer is not much unless I took undue risk. It pans out as not worth the trouble or too risky. The people who are telling you to bet a small percentage of fun mone...
by tadamsmar
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing the next bubble?
Replies: 24
Views: 2756

Re: Indexing the next bubble?

Indexing will be the next bubble. Indexing was all the past bubbles. Indexing will be all the future bubbles. By definition.

That's why we diversify. Generally speaking stock bubbles and bond bubbles don't happen at the same time.
by tadamsmar
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 96
Views: 10976

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

minimalistmarc wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:29 pm
Isn’t it unusual to have a year when the stock market doesn’t have a 10% correction?

Also, why is it called a correction. If the price goes up again isn’t it a mistake?
They did not call it a "correction" or something, then the financial pages would just be a table of numbers.
by tadamsmar
Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data
Replies: 44
Views: 3108

Re: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data

There's some discussion of fractional Kelly here: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.225.4036&rep=rep1&type=pdf The authors (including Thorp) discuss the relative advantages. One application of fractional Kelly is when you don't trust you win probability estimate. You might thi...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data
Replies: 44
Views: 3108

Re: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data

I don't know how I ended up being the champion of the Kelly criterion .... I don't leverage and probably never would .... If you look at the expectation to be maximized: E[log(1+fS)] where S is the return over the riskless rate (note that I used a different formula that I derived since I wanted to ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data
Replies: 44
Views: 3108

Re: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data

There are various examples that present problems for the Kelly Criterion. Turns out most of us don't attempt to assure against every remote possibility that can wipe out our wealth. Those that try to do that seem a bit nutty. Under the Kelly Criterion we are being reckless, the low probability even...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data
Replies: 44
Views: 3108

Re: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data

There are various examples that present problems for the Kelly Criterion. Turns out most of us don't attempt to assure against every remote possibility that can wipe out our wealth. Those that try to do that seem a bit nutty. Under the Kelly Criterion we are being reckless, the low probability even...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data
Replies: 44
Views: 3108

Re: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data

There are various examples that present problems for the Kelly Criterion. Turns out most of us don't attempt to assure against every remote possibility that can wipe out our wealth. Those that try to do that seem a bit nutty. Under the Kelly Criterion we are being reckless, the low probability event...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data
Replies: 44
Views: 3108

Re: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data

Here's an analysis by Thorp himself that supports 117% investment in the S&p 500: http://finance.martinsewell.com/money-management/RotandoThorp1992.pdf That's assuming that you can borrow at the T-Bill rate. Note that half-Kelly would be 58.5% in equities. Given that the "win probabilities" in the s...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data
Replies: 44
Views: 3108

Re: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data

This paper: https://sites.math.washington.edu/~morrow/336_16/2016papers/nikhil.pdf calcualated: f∗ =(.058−.029)/.2162 ^2 ≈ .62 .058 = historical market real return .2162 = historical market standard deviation .029 = treasury (risk free) rate. Implies to invest 62% in stocks (SP500) Yes ... Kelly do...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data
Replies: 44
Views: 3108

Re: Maximizing Portfolio Growth Rate - Kelly Criterion - Empirical Market Data

This paper:

https://sites.math.washington.edu/~morr ... nikhil.pdf

calcualated:

f∗ =(.058−.029)/.2162 ≈ .62

.058 = historical market real return
.2162 = historical market standard deviation
.029 = treasury (risk free) rate.

Implies to invest 62% in stocks (SP500)
by tadamsmar
Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 51124

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

I imagine that lots of us will want to precisely estimate our taxes in advance in the future. It will be necessary with Roth recharacterization after 12/31 going away. If you have a solo 401K then you can fund a Roth up to tax day of the next year. That allows some wiggle room. I believe Roth IRA c...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 10421

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Still, even if the future were to replicate the past, returns for the next 10 years could be anywhere between -1.38% and 12.07%. Most of the prior 10 year returns with a high CAPE have been between 2% and 7% though. I seem to recall that high CAPE is also an indicator that long term bond returns wi...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing
Replies: 106
Views: 6821

Re: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing

One of the principle behind "good" guys finding this type of issues and reporting this privately to the "powers to be" is that the vulnerability is publicly disclosed only after the patch has been in place for a while. From reading the current news, it seems as if the patches have not been yet wide...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing
Replies: 106
Views: 6821

Re: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing

A exploit requires gaining access to your computer. But Javascript (for instance) running in a browser has access. If javascript is disabled, what next could the attackers use to access the cache? This is primarily a rhetorical question because those of use who routinely turn off javascript, must t...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing
Replies: 106
Views: 6821

Re: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing

The technical side of this is beyond me for now. One question I have is what this means for data that is internal to a VM on a Windows host and in particular, data that is provided to a browser for log-in such as password or other credentials? Is that data exposed here? My understanding is that the...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 144
Views: 8755

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

The new interface allows a real-time look at the contest entries by looking at the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19-5aO8g6xePwdCdE5boerLE7uP1d31B6tenbGYOwmfI/edit#gid=451082556 I was thinking about writing a spreadsheet analyzer that would tell you the next best pick given the ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing
Replies: 106
Views: 6821

Re: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing

Cert has backed down on recommending CPU replacement. But the researcher who discovered the Meltdown flaw says otherwise: On the change in recommendation from CERT, Gruss said, however, that there were no replacements yet that could address the flaws in processors that he and other researchers have ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing
Replies: 106
Views: 6821

Re: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing

That’s why I suggested a chromebook with a limited attack surface (vs a full PC OS) using a PC VM hosted in the cloud without the chip-based vulnerability. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/01/03/microsoft-google-respond-to-intel-chip-vulnerability.html Cloud VMs hosted on Linux-ba...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing
Replies: 106
Views: 6821

Re: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing

People need to check that their anti-virus software is compatible with the Windows upgrades related to the vulnerability. Here's a spreadsheet that provides some info: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wcDt9I9TUNFFbsAVLpzAtckQxYiuirADzf3cL42FQ/htmlview?sle=true#gid=0 Not sure what the sympto...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing
Replies: 106
Views: 6821

Re: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing

That’s why I suggested a chromebook with a limited attack surface (vs a full PC OS) using a PC VM hosted in the cloud without the chip-based vulnerability. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/01/03/microsoft-google-respond-to-intel-chip-vulnerability.html Huh? This hits Intel x86, no...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car headlights or Daytime Running Lights - what do you do?
Replies: 62
Views: 3822

Re: Car headlights or Daytime Running Lights - what do you do?

Doesn't make sense to me that daytime running lights on cars would cause more motorcycle accidents. "These results support the Fleet DRL Hypothesis for urban roadways, that widespread use of DRL in the vehicle fleet increases the relative crash risk for certain types of motorcycles crashes. This co...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing
Replies: 106
Views: 6821

Re: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing

Reports of a post-fix 30% reduction in computer performance. But Intel seems to be saying that is only for certain applications.
by tadamsmar
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing
Replies: 106
Views: 6821

Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing

I find it hard to get my head around this story. Pretty much everything is vulnerable. It is uncertain if there have been any exploits by hackers. Reports seem to indicate that Microsoft issued a patch today, but reports say that other driver patches may be needed. And maybe it is not fully patchabl...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car headlights or Daytime Running Lights - what do you do?
Replies: 62
Views: 3822

Re: Car headlights or Daytime Running Lights - what do you do?

DRLs are standard on all General Motors, Honda, Subaru, Volkswagen and Volvo models. Other manufacturers also offer daytime running lights on certain models. Retrofit kits can be purchased for vehicles that didn't come with DRLs. http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/headlights/qanda But, there are ple...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car headlights or Daytime Running Lights - what do you do?
Replies: 62
Views: 3822

Re: Car headlights or Daytime Running Lights - what do you do?

How effective are DRLs? Nearly all published reports indicate DRLs reduce multiple-vehicle daytime crashes. A 1985 Institute study determined that commercial fleet passenger vehicles modified to operate with DRLs were involved in 7 percent fewer daytime multiple-vehicle crashes than similar vehicle...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car headlights or Daytime Running Lights - what do you do?
Replies: 62
Views: 3822

Re: Car headlights or Daytime Running Lights - what do you do?

DRL on automatically on my car. I wish other cars had this setting, too. There might be studies showing that they're ineffective, but living in the outer boroughs of NYC, it's a huge help when other cars are running with DRL/headlights on smaller streets- you can see the reflection off of parked ca...
by tadamsmar
Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LifeStrategy Income Fund - Only 20% stocks?
Replies: 20
Views: 2208

Re: LifeStrategy Income Fund - Only 20% stocks?

As a point of comparison, the TSP target date funds drop to 20/80 at their target date. Perhaps with a government pension, the managers determined that 20/80 was sufficient. The Vanguard target date funds are 50/50 at their target date and don't reach 30/70 until 7 years after the target date. That...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: manual car for new teen driver
Replies: 143
Views: 6780

Re: manual car for new teen driver

1990?

The OP is going to get ESC. He will probably get traction control if he got a Tacoma since it's standard since at least 2012. It will handle well in the snow.

Welcome to the future.
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NC or SC beach area summer rentals for big group
Replies: 19
Views: 1066

Re: NC or SC beach area summer rentals for big group

Hi all, Looking for some advice from the locals or folks who have had good experiences. My family and friend couples (all with kids between 2-6 years old) approximately 18-20 folks total are looking to rent a summer place for a week somewhere in SC or NC for 2018. We are looking for some beach acti...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What the experts say about Bitcoins?
Replies: 114
Views: 7998

Re: What the experts say about Bitcoins?

The current issue of Scientific American has a number of good articles on crypto-currencies and bitcoin: This explainer about blockchains is free: https://www.scientificamerican.com/sciam/assets/Image/bitcoin-explained_REV%20(1A).jpg The rest is paywalled: https://www.scientificamerican.com/report/t...
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: manual car for new teen driver
Replies: 143
Views: 6780

Re: manual car for new teen driver

Looking at the "big picture", percentages are not as meaningful when overall occurrences of death are very low. The curb weight is probably more meaningful than all the crash test ratings and optional safety features since the 2012 model year combined. So, if you ignore curb weight then you can ign...
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: manual car for new teen driver
Replies: 143
Views: 6780

Re: manual car for new teen driver

That super gigantic graphic cherry picks the data. It only uses multi-vehicle crashes and ignores single vehicle and single vehicle rollovers. Pickups do terrible in both those categories, but that data is magically removed. I guess because everyone thinks "I'll never rollover, only idiots do that....
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: manual car for new teen driver
Replies: 143
Views: 6780

Re: manual car for new teen driver

Read the IIHS report the graph is based on, not the graph. The side bar on page 2 says the death rate is defined as "driver deaths per million registered vehicle years, 2005-08 models during calendar years 2006-09". Additionally, the text on page 2 says "A registered year is 1 vehicle registered fo...