Search found 7538 matches

by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 62
Views: 4445

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

I wonder how many US investors will still advocate a 100% domestic allocation when the global cap is only 18%?
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation - can it be indexed?
Replies: 9
Views: 654

Re: Asset allocation - can it be indexed?

I think this is similar to Nobel Laureate Bill Sharpe's idea: http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/allocate-by-market-weight-and-adjust-for-personal-circumstances One portion of the AA is market weight. The other portion (which might be 0%) is TIPS to calibrate the overall risk to individual needs/pr...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?
Replies: 197
Views: 8196

Re: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?

For the record, yes , I see that the dividend fund had higher return (CAGR 9.95% versus 9.59%, 33 basis points higher) and PortfolioVisualizer shows lower standard deviation and higher Sharpe ratio, 0.64 versus 0.54, so of course we can argue about what is an important difference, and how confident...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?
Replies: 197
Views: 8196

Re: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?

Having a dividend fetish seems mostly harmless. As does having a domestic fetish, a more common Boglehead fetish, apparently.
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?
Replies: 197
Views: 8196

Re: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?

I just googled FIRE and it seems to have no particular connection to dividends. Looked to be Boglehead investing on steroids. The steroid being uber-fugality to increase savings and reduce projected retirement consumption rate so you can retire early, or become financially independent to pursue a pa...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?
Replies: 197
Views: 8196

Re: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?

In my view, it's a mistake to call it a philosophy. It's an evidence-based approach. It would change if the evidence changes. Perhaps behavioral finance could cause a change. If there was a really good foundation for persistent behavioral anomalies in investment markets that justified some active in...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you buy new or used cars?
Replies: 100
Views: 5517

Re: Do you buy new or used cars?

I prefer to buy used. There are 2 features I want: (1) electronic stability control (ESC), and (2) durable seat upholstery like leather is similar. The first because it's one of the most important safety features in history. The other because the used car seats will look like new. ESC is standard on...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 18, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

I tend to think of the inflation adjusted withdrawals as a "live poor and die rich" plan. I vote for the "live better off and and die less rich" plan. The Trinity Study should not be used as a life-time withdrawal plan at all. It should be use during pre-retirement planning to plan to have an adequ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Los Angeles a good place long term to live financially?
Replies: 170
Views: 11119

Re: Is Los Angeles a good place long term to live financially?

I live within 15 minutes drive of DTLA. I am quite sincere and not trolling you; it is not hard to live in Los Angeles area on low income. My daughter lives in LA (Highland Park) with a husband and 2 kids. I also have the impression that it's would not be expensive to live in LA if one's small 800K...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Re: Regular 4% withdrawals can be ridiculous.

Bogleheads: Limiting withdrawals to 4% is obviously ridiculous when you are as old as I am (94). Best wishes. Taylor The SWR is a planning tool for retirement. It's a tool for estimating a prudent portfolio balance at the point of retirement. It's not meant to be a commitment to a fixed spending ra...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

A disservice is done every time the Trinity study is equated to a retirement income withdrawal strategy. As the latter, it would have to be the worst method. The thought of setting a withdrawal rate, then never looking again at actual outcome, portfolio balance, inflation, etc. is reckless. A disse...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

Trying to predict the future with math and past performance. And then we debate it ad nauseum. I like Taylor’s method. Make sure you have a reasonable amount to cover basics (ss, pension, annuity) or enough $ to get there if early retirement. In bad years, you may have to buckle down, not travel, e...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

This updated study confirms my belief that a 3% SWR is truly a safe withdrawal rate. It has 0% chance of failure regardless of your AA. I'm sticking to the 3%. Pretty sure my heirs would support this too. :happy TravelforFun If you literally stick to 3% inflation adjusted as your nest egg grows, yo...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

SWR* again?! :oops: ... Totally agree. But finance bloggers and academics have to pay their mortgage so I'll acquiesce. This is why I read widely outside the fields of investing, economics, and personal finance. For example, virtually everything Shane Parish publishes does not pertain to these fiel...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

This is from January, but I searched and did not find a post on it: https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2018/01/16/the-trinity-study-and-portfolio-success-rates-updated-to-2018/#6665ac7e6860 Wade Pfau updated the Trinity Study to include data thru 2017. He also includes failure rates up to 40 yea...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

longinvest wrote:
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:53 pm

What?!!! Is there an assumption, in that statement, that the retiree had a 100% stock portfolio and no Social Security, no pension, and no inflation-indexed SPIA?
Yeah, you nailed me. Forgot about Social Security. I used 80% stocks since that was in the table.
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

But I suspect that a good many Bogleheads can't save enough to where the math does not matter. That's why, with the generous help and suggestions of other Bogleheads, we've developed the easy-to-use variable-percentage withdrawal (VPW) method and table , and I discussed how it could be used within ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

Tadamsmar, So what happened? We simply withdrew what we needed and kept an eye on our portfolio balance. Most years our balance went up and we spent the money on vacations, luxuries and charity. When our balance went down we tightened our belt and economized. Best wishes. Taylor Great! None of the ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

So what happened? We simply withdrew what we needed and kept an eye on our portfolio balance. Most years our balance went up and we spent the money on vacations, luxuries and charity. When our balance went down we tightened our belt and economized. Best wishes. Taylor Great! None of the mathematics...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

This study extended out to 40 years seems to indicate that Age in Bonds might be too conservative.

AA with more than 25% stock do better at the 3% withdrawal rate.

But perhaps Age in Bonds would still be 100% safe at 40 years, not sure.
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

A disservice is done every time the Trinity study is equated to a retirement income withdrawal strategy. As the latter, it would have to be the worst method. The thought of setting a withdrawal rate, then never looking again at actual outcome, portfolio balance, inflation, etc. is reckless. True, i...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8319

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

A variable withdrawal amount is a great idea. You still have to choose a portfolio size at retirement. We totally agree. But, in that case, it would be important to state this when presenting SWR literature, as to avoid misleading new members into believing that it's an actual withdrawal method. Th...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8319

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

SWR* again?! :oops: * Safe Withdrawal Rate method, also called Constant-Dollar Withdrawal method. It consists of choosing a withdrawal amount at retirement, then increasing this withdrawal amount with inflation every year, regardless of market returns, when using a portfolio of fluctuating assets (...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9894

Trinity Study updated to 2018

This is from January, but I searched and did not find a post on it: https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2018/01/16/the-trinity-study-and-portfolio-success-rates-updated-to-2018/#6665ac7e6860 Wade Pfau updated the Trinity Study to include data thru 2017. He also includes failure rates up to 40 year...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8319

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Historical_and_expected_returns Beginner here trying to figure out how much I need for retirement and I'm confused. Historical real returns are something like 7% on equities and 2.5% on bonds and yet everybody seems to expect closer to 2-4% real on equities and 0-2% ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8319

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Historical_and_expected_returns Beginner here trying to figure out how much I need for retirement and I'm confused. Historical real returns are something like 7% on equities and 2.5% on bonds and yet everybody seems to expect closer to 2-4% real on equities and 0-2% ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 14530

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Isn't this all depressing? Wouldn't it be nice if -- in response to these sorts of questions -- instead of just playing to the masses and talking about a prediction in a cowardly way (70%? That sounds like making a prediction that basically predicts nothing) we had the head of a major financial com...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 14530

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

I don't know about you guys, but I'm actually hoping for a big correction. It's the best time to buy! The correction happened Feb 8, so the prediction came true then. Is there something called a big correction? I that different from a bear market? If we continued to a 20% decline from the high at t...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling gold coins
Replies: 5
Views: 423

Re: Selling gold coins

You can sell them at AMPEX.COM [it's APMEX.COM - moderator prudent] Or you can look on Craig's list or other places to make a private sale, splitting the difference between the sellers and buyers price at AMPEC. I did this and met the buyer at a local coffee shop (a public place). The buyer measured...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents have zero savings. What can I do?
Replies: 168
Views: 13942

Re: Parents have zero savings. What can I do?

I think that one thing to avoid is misplaced charity that amounts to you and your wife personally paying down the National Debt. You have not provided much in terms of specifics, but I would try to avoid making payments that simply amount to replacing Medicaid and other government funds with your f...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 09, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents have zero savings. What can I do?
Replies: 168
Views: 13942

Re: Parents have zero savings. What can I do?

I think that one thing to avoid is misplaced charity that amounts to you and your wife personally paying down the National Debt. You have not provided much in terms of specifics, but I would try to avoid making payments that simply amount to replacing Medicaid and other government funds with your fu...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents have zero savings. What can I do?
Replies: 168
Views: 13942

Re: Parents have zero savings. What can I do?

And if not, how can I make sure that I mitigate our exposure to their financial problems, which I believe will be substantial? What exposure? I don't think you have any financial exposure. What are you talking about? If I am wrong, I would certainly like to know. Are you talking about pressure to p...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Too much Bogleheads.org?
Replies: 79
Views: 10029

Re: Too much Bogleheads.org?

I joined this site a few months back and am blown away with the amount of knowledge and support of this site. Between this site and the recommended books I have learned a tremendous amount and have become a more savvy and attentive investor. That being said, I find myself constantly thinking about ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in bear territory?
Replies: 49
Views: 6094

Re: Are we in bear territory?

How close are we to a 20 point drop? And what range of months does it require that 20 point drop to be within? Where are we at now? Thanks. We are not in bear territory according to the definitions that I find. It's a 20% drop, not a 20 point drop. There is no "within" time-period. The definitions ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10078

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

People like JL Collins argue that they don't need an international allocation because the companies in US total stock market already do business internationally. Is this actually a valid argument? I feel like this is different from investing in non-American companies. Does this line of thinking hav...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Savannah or Charleston?
Replies: 49
Views: 4063

Re: Savannah or Charleston?

In Atlanta they ask "What do you do for a living?", in Macon they ask "What church do you go to?", in Augusta they ask "What's your grandmother's maiden name?", in Savannah they ask "What would you like to drink?".
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Savannah or Charleston?
Replies: 49
Views: 4063

Re: Savannah or Charleston?

I recommend the walking tour booklet for Charleston: http://www.talkofthetowne.com/walk.html Or a Kindle version: https://www.amazon.com/Charleston-South-Carolina-Walking-Guidebook-ebook/dp/B008AY9BRG I think it's also available in Charleston at the Historical Society Store. (Note that there are no ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does the value of my home matter?
Replies: 21
Views: 2740

Re: Does the value of my home matter?

Not moving can be an expensive option in some long-term care scenarios down the road perhaps.
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does the value of my home matter?
Replies: 21
Views: 2740

Re: Does the value of my home matter?

You have a "value equals current or future market price" mindset. When I think about the "value" my home, I think about the possible renovations that might be needed to make it more livable in old age. Like a downstairs laundry room. Your home can end up, in some scenarios, adding to or subtracting ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 19, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP bonds?
Replies: 92
Views: 6697

Re: TSP bonds?

I think F looks worse in isolation. The analysts who create the L Fund don't do that, so they have a relatively small allocation to F. One interesting idea that has been discussed here is to pair G with something other that F, like a corporate bond fund. Buying treasuries in both F and G looks less ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP bonds?
Replies: 92
Views: 6697

Re: TSP bonds?

Take a look at the L Fund allocations. The bond holdings are mostly in the G Fund. The L Fund allocations are set by experts. The L Fund gives you a good idea of how to allocate to bonds, if you want to allocate to bonds. Whether you should lower risk by allocating to to bond depends on your situati...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 17806

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

If we were in a period where we were moving toward stagflation (toward recession and increasing inflation), cash (short-term TIPs) would be king. Cash in a portfolio has a purpose, but perhaps it's not that useful.
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 17806

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Is cash an investment? IMO, it is not. The goal of an “investment” is achieve a real rate of return over time. Cash investments do not do this, and are not priced to do it. Cash is (or should) be risk free, and that should mean it keeps up with inflation before tax. This doesn’t always happen becau...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 17806

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Is cash an investment? IMO, it is not. The goal of an “investment” is achieve a real rate of return over time. Cash investments do not do this, and are not priced to do it. Cash is (or should) be risk free, and that should mean it keeps up with inflation before tax. This doesn’t always happen becau...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 17806

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

People often ask what purpose cash has in a portfolio. Cash serves two purposes; it’s either waiting to be invested or it’s waiting to be spent. Rick Ferri Are you saying that the purpose of cash in a portfolio is waiting to be spent? How can that make sense? Most people have their portfolio in tax...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 17806

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Rick Ferri wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:26 pm
People often ask what purpose cash has in a portfolio. Cash serves two purposes; it’s either waiting to be invested or it’s waiting to be spent.

Rick Ferri
What about an emergency fund? It's not really cash waiting to be spent.
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 Updated IRS Withholding Calculator Released
Replies: 32
Views: 3092

Re: 2018 Updated IRS Withholding Calculator Released

I used the second link in the OP. Being over 65 should decrease my taxes because it increases the standard deduction. Seem like a bug. That would be bad. >65 reduced taxes for me. I don't know what's going on, tadamsmar. Firefox browser here, but I'm sure the calculator has been thoroughly tested o...