Search found 7757 matches

by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 374
Views: 74432

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Can you substantiate the past long-term benefit of having ex-US in your portfolio? I've seen the results for the last 20, 30, 50, and even 80 years, and ex-US harmed the portfolio for all of these. Is that not long-term enough? There were indeed a few years here and there, or even an occasional dec...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 374
Views: 74432

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I hold 50% international and I am doing fine. Did I get lucky? Bogle says 20% is reasonable. If he had invested anywhere in his reasonable range, he would have done well and he would be like me. Bogle owns some international by the way. Apparently not much, but saying he owns zero represents misinfo...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7810
Views: 1604225

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Seems like this has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone I know says the market is at its peak and it has to correct. Not everyone you know says that. Many of the people here don't, for instance. I should clarify, not including Bogleheads :) Does everyone know that the market has been twice ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Panic set in... now what?
Replies: 63
Views: 10842

Re: Panic set in... now what?

It seems like you can play it really safe from here on out. Why not stick the $600k in a high yield savings account...they're earning 2% now. That would generate $12/year. Not a ton of money but its safe. You can even break it up and open a couple different account so its fdic insured. I think you ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Engines thru Vanguard
Replies: 14
Views: 798

Re: Financial Engines thru Vanguard

I found it. Does anyone use it? It Financial Engines usesful? I used it years ago. I found it useful as an estimator of the chance of failure of my retirement plan. It can also calculate a recommended asset allocation which was interesting, but I chose to not use that allocation. It was not useful ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?
Replies: 44
Views: 2173

Re: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?

What are the ways to pay 0% on tax-deferred? I think my wife and I are in a situation where we are going to pay ~27.5% on most RMDs, I think. There's two ways: Roth Conversion Ladder 72(t) Substantially Equal Periodic Payments (SEPP) https://www.madfientist.com/how-to-access-retirement-funds-early/...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?
Replies: 44
Views: 2173

Re: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?

You're right, everything is fuzzy math when it comes to AA and precise rebalancing. That's exactly why it's a fruitless endeavor to try and over-optimize things. Just pick an AA, rebalance in your tax-protected accounts, put new money in your taxable accounts, and call it a day. One may get in a si...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?
Replies: 44
Views: 2173

Re: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?

No, this just sounds like a lot of busywork and over-optimization for nothing. You don't know what taxes you're going to pay when you sell. There are various issues with estimating taxes. The federal and state tax rates may change, but the changes are usually not that drastic. Federal brackets are ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?
Replies: 44
Views: 2173

Re: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?

Your math is over my head, but I get the big concept. This discussion comes up every so often here. My own feeling, which has often been confirmed by others, is never (or perhaps ALMOST never) rebalance anything that requires paying tax to do so. The drag of the permanently lost tax paid is general...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?
Replies: 44
Views: 2173

Re: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?

I have been playing around with using after-tax values for rebalancing. Roth funds need no reduction so the after-tax multiplier factor is 1 For tax-deferred, the factor is about 0.7325 for me. That's assuming a 22% federal marginal tax plus my state tax rate. For taxable, the factor is about 0.9 w...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?
Replies: 44
Views: 2173

Re: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?

When one rebalances based on bands does one just rebalance to the band limit? Or does exceeding the band limit trigger full rebalance to the target AA? Seems like the former might be more appropriate when you having to pay taxes to rebalance. I researched the band rebalance thing and did not see an ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?
Replies: 44
Views: 2173

Re: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?

Two kinds of rebalancing: ACTIVE: Sell over-balanced assets and use the proceeds to buy under-balanced assets. PASSIVE: When you buy or sell for any reason do so in a way that tends to maintain the target AA. One's target AA is pretty arbitrary, being an estimate (guess) at what is the right balanc...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take taxes into account when rebalancing?
Replies: 44
Views: 2173

Take taxes into account when rebalancing?

I have been playing around with using after-tax values for rebalancing. Roth funds need no reduction so the after-tax multiplier factor is 1 For tax-deferred, the factor is about 0.7325 for me. That's assuming a 22% federal marginal tax plus my state tax rate. For taxable, the factor is about 0.9 wi...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS publishes draft 2018 1040 - Huge changes made
Replies: 168
Views: 20958

Re: IRS publishes draft 2018 1040 - Huge changes made

Just thought I would bump this. I just looked up the form to double check some of my estimates and wow it's different. Of course, if you paid attention to the new tax law you may know the calculation differences, anyway. Here's the draft from the IRS site: https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-dft/f1040--dft....
by tadamsmar
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10401

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

I'm somewhat inclined to agree, but we don't need to kid ourselves or others into thinking that 2008-2009, for instance, was as bad as it can get. In the past 100 years, U.S. stocks and bonds as have fared far worst. And considering that a Great Depression (hammered stocks very hard) or 1970s stagf...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10401

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Why encrypt anything? Just have the specific predication written down, certified, sealed and put in a safety deposit box by a neutral party and then just reveal it at the proper time. Don't need to encrypt anything; a bunch of BS. Hi BB, there was someone in the art business also called BB (Bernard...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10401

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Thanks. It's an interesting idea. I wonder how it's held up in the past. Like most backtested theories, probably pretty well. The guy has this experiment going where he "releases" encrypted short-term predictions and reveals them 6 months later. According to the TED talk. The theory should allow sh...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10401

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

One probably fatal flaw is that this guy is just an elf. Assume the stampede can be predicted by market movements as Mr. Elf claims. That's just a social psychology theory based on not using all the available data. Some other social psychology big data machine learning algorithm could eat Mr. Elf's ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10401

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Thanks. It's an interesting idea. I wonder how it's held up in the past. Like most backtested theories, probably pretty well. The guy has this experiment going where he "releases" encrypted short-term predictions and reveals them 6 months later. According to the TED talk. The theory should allow sh...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10401

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Maybe you could help me out and point me to anywhere that he mentions he ever invested a dime of his own money. That would be pertinent. Science and your brain is one thing, but your money and your brain is quite another. I would be far more interested in how he behaves than in how he thinks - when...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10401

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Thanks. It's an interesting idea. I wonder how it's held up in the past. Like most backtested theories, probably pretty well. The guy has this experiment going where he "releases" encrypted short-term predictions and reveals them 6 months later. According to the TED talk. The theory should allow sh...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10401

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Would you provide the details on Sornette's methods? Short answer: bubbles = faster than exponential growth which ends with accelerating price volatility. We use the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model to hunt for the distinct fingerprint of Financial Bubbles. Basic assumptions of the ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10401

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Contrary to Fama's postulate that bubbles do not exist because of EMH, Didier Sornette shows that they do, and he apparently can predict when they burst (in this video he says he predicted the time the stock market crashed in China): https://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule
Replies: 66
Views: 4315

Re: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule

The “rule” comes from backtesting where there was no adjustment for up and downs in the market, based on the Trinity Study.

It was not 100% reliable.
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Panic set in... now what?
Replies: 63
Views: 10842

Re: Panic set in... now what?

Given the size of your nest egg, if you can get by on 45k/yr inflation-adjusted withdraws long term, then to don’t need to take on more equity risk. That would have to cover all expenses including state and federal taxes.

That is one plan to consider.
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market
Replies: 38
Views: 5191

Re: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market

Suppose he were right: he doesn’t seem to indicate how long this goes on...just re-invest every 3 months. At what percentage? Exactly, this "simple" is actually hard since it's unclear what the method is. Also, you can't test any of the claims made because it is too ill-defined. An article written ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it risky to have all retirement savings with vanguard?
Replies: 43
Views: 5909

Re: Is it risky to have all retirement savings with vanguard?

There was a thread on here in the not so distant past where a case of what was either identity theft or insider theft of a posters relative's (?) retirement money went missing from their account. I recall the process was quite long but they eventually got it back. Perhaps someone remembers that thr...
by tadamsmar
Sat Oct 27, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it risky to have all retirement savings with vanguard?
Replies: 43
Views: 5909

Re: Is it risky to have all retirement savings with vanguard?

... In my opinion, bogleheads.org should not be a shill for Vanguard, or seem to make Vanguard the default brokerage company. Do you know of any other brokerage / fund company that has a structure of being truly "mutual", offering funds at cost, and incentives to the agents for cutting costs ? TIAA...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For market historians buying the dip today
Replies: 7
Views: 1559

Re: For market historians, buying the dip today

Since Sep 1997, all data for SP eMini futures. 42 times the market has opened down more than 1% on a Friday while the week is also down....... On average you make a good profit if you hold til the afternoon (73% Up, 0.8% trimmed mean) Be careful out there! Good Luck!! Does the phrase "buying the di...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it risky to have all retirement savings with vanguard?
Replies: 43
Views: 5909

Re: Is it risky to have all retirement savings with vanguard?

If company A has a 10% risk of being "hacked" And company B has a 10% risk of being "hacked" Does splitting your assets across the two, halve the probability you'll be hacked, double the probability you'll be hacked, or not change the probability at all? ( 1/10 ) / 2 = ( 1/10 ) + ( 1/10 ) = .5 * ( ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to inherit an IRA from a spouse
Replies: 8
Views: 1336

Re: How to inherit an IRA from a spouse

tadamsmar, your question indicates that some preliminary definitions are needed here in order that you may benefit from what has been said by others. There are at least two options for a spouse who is the sole primary beneficiary of a deceased spouse’s IRA. One option is SPOUSAL ASSUMPTION. This me...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it risky to have all retirement savings with vanguard?
Replies: 43
Views: 5909

Re: Is it risky to have all retirement savings with vanguard?

I think the risks are small. Perhaps the biggest risk is that your account would get hacked and you would be held responsible for it. But I don't know of any publicly revealed cases where a private brokerage our mutual fund failed to reimburse a hack. It is the case that there are no regulatory guar...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to inherit an IRA from a spouse
Replies: 8
Views: 1336

Re: How to inherit an IRA from a spouse

Remember this option: 1) If deceased spouse is younger than the sole spousal survivor and under 70.5 AND 2) If tax deferral will be beneficial Maintaining the IRA as inherited for a period will provide more tax deferral since RMDs for the inherited IRA are not required until the deceased spouse wou...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to inherit an IRA from a spouse
Replies: 8
Views: 1336

Re: How to inherit an IRA from a spouse

For an inherited IRA, it seems that the date when RMDs start is determined by the deceased age, but the RMD factor is determined using the spouse's age and the IRS single life table. Is that correct?

Edit: after some surfing, I think the uniform life table is used.
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to inherit an IRA from a spouse
Replies: 8
Views: 1336

How to inherit an IRA from a spouse

I was writing an investment explainer for my wife. So this is a just a what if, neither of us has lost a spouse yet. But you can offer condolences for the fact that I am mortal. :twisted: Looks like it is typically better to inherit into your own IRA. Looks like the RMDs are much smaller. My wife is...
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Smart money' bailing on the market, time to get out?
Replies: 92
Views: 12161

Re: 'Smart money' bailing on the market, time to get out?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-22/7-reasons-why-goldman-believes-professional-investors-are-now-bailing-market Whilst retail investors keep investing in the stock market, institutional investors have been decreasing their market exposure. Is there something the 'smart money' knows, that we ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exclusions from my Fidelity reimbursement guarantee
Replies: 0
Views: 261

Exclusions from my Fidelity reimbursement guarantee

FYI. This is for my 401K with Fidelity. I am personally covered for malware and breach of security if I follow good practices, this apparently does not apply to my wife and any other third party. What are examples of where I won't be covered? If you grant authority to, or share your Fidelity account...
by tadamsmar
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you include this in a will?
Replies: 23
Views: 3569

Re: Can you include this in a will?

"But be careful in relying on this type of clause because in some states, including Florida, they are unenforceable. In other states there are exceptions that can render the clause useless." https://www.thebalance.com/tips-for-avoiding-a-will-contest-3505204 There are a number of other tips in that ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3324

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

This is a 2010 article, not sure if the regulations are better now. ...the business of carbon offsets is close to a billion dollar industry with nearly no regulation, enforcement, measurements or even proof that carbon offsets are doing anything but filling the coffers of middle men and adding extra...
by tadamsmar
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3450

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

Earlier I said that I was somewhat locked into Malkiel's life-cycle investing plan from earlier editions of Random Walk Down Wall Street due to capital gains. It occurred to me that I am locked in because it worked! You don't get cap gains without growth. The plan is pretty much a cap-weighted appro...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3450

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

I'm very interested to see what the next edition of A Random Walk Down Wall Street will look like. :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: The subtitle is "The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing" and has been for many editions :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: You can search the next (12th) edition on...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3450

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

All Seasons wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:23 pm
I'm very interested to see what the next edition of A Random Walk Down Wall Street will look like. :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
Me too.
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3450

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

:D He is at wealthfront, which is now on it's third pivot afair. Wealthfront :thumbsup smart beta. Perhaps I am being too harsh. Does anyone have lists of WF portfolios that one can compare with VTSAX? There is the WF thing. Malkiel says that he thought smart beta was expensive beta till WF made it...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3450

Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

I thought this NYT article was interesting. Malkiel's smart beta endorsement has gotten little discussion here. The NYT is not your usual industry rag. But, it still looks like the same debate from the slice and dice days to me. Maybe the ERs are a bit lower, not sure. There is an argument that it s...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11270

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

If Intl pickups again there is nothing to stop an investor from adding AA for it. The little spurt of business activity enjoyed by Intl earlier in the year seems to have died out. So until Intl puts together some reliable annual returns I'm discouraged again. I don't like thinking I'm investing in ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11270

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

If Intl pickups again there is nothing to stop an investor from adding AA for it. The little spurt of business activity enjoyed by Intl earlier in the year seems to have died out. So until Intl puts together some reliable annual returns I'm discouraged again. I don't like thinking I'm investing in ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11270

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

If you had put your $10,000 in the Templeton Growth Fund in 11/1954 you would have over $13,000,000. The SP500 made about half that. Curious that Bogle has been fond of displaying the Telltale Charts showing the historical relative reversal of fortunes for all sorts of asset class comparisons except...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11270

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Yes it may as well be a Coke vs Pepsi debate! Each side has their opinions on why one is better and some even rely on fancy numbers/charts and famous personalities to back up their bias. But in the end we all really know Coke is better. :wink: Coke is better because Pepsi has a big joint venture wi...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11270

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

John Bogle owns these non-U.S. stocks:

Sucor Energy Inc., Canada
Unilever, Netherlands
Chubb, Switzerland
Total SA, France
AstraZeneca, UK

these are in the top 25 holding of the Wellesley and Wellington Funds, and he says he still has a small investment in those funds
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11270

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

So if I buy a share of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A.—Petrobras—a semi-public Brazilian multinational corporation in the petroleum industry headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, I’m not transferring my wealth to the Brazilian government? Really? Where does the money go? I think it's like anything else...