Search found 8374 matches

by tadamsmar
Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First car accident ever, now what?
Replies: 30
Views: 1926

Re: First car accident ever, now what?

One thing to remember is that the police accident report does not determine fault. In my state (NC) there is a disclaimer to that effect printed on the police report. Also, fault/liability determinaton is different in different states. In NC, I can be liable if I am 1% or less at fault even if the o...
by tadamsmar
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First car accident ever, now what?
Replies: 30
Views: 1926

Re: First car accident ever, now what?

Your insurance company is not really on your side. There are various ways that your claim can hurt their bottom line. Seems that uninsured and underinsured motorists at fault represent the most common scenario where your claim can hit their earnings. Google "Is my insurance company on my side". Ulti...
by tadamsmar
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First car accident ever, now what?
Replies: 30
Views: 1926

Re: First car accident ever, now what?

Most attorneys advise their clients not to give recorded statements. It’s just too easy for an unsuspecting claimant to say something that can be used to weaken their case.
https://www.injuryclaimcoach.com/record ... ments.html

There is other useful info in that link.
by tadamsmar
Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 921
Views: 61609

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:20 pm
For a more realistic comparison, a 60/40 AA would now have an inflation-adjusted balance of $7,032.
Does that $7,032 include rebalancing or not?
by tadamsmar
Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 921
Views: 61609

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:57 pm
That's because the red line in that graph is for a 100% VTSMX portfolio, not a 60/40. When you run a timing model in Portfolio Visualizer, it automatically also includes a line for buy-and-hold of the timed asset(s).
Opps! I missed that.
by tadamsmar
Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 921
Views: 61609

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I calculate a 60/40 AA (with VBMFX), Jan 2000 - Aug 2019, withdraw 4 percent annually to result in inflation adjusted end balance of $9412. That's more than 94% of your nest egg still intact nearly 20 years into retirement. I just checked it again with Portfolio Visualizer, using VTSMX (60%) and VB...
by tadamsmar
Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

They are not identical for sure, but one feeds the other, right? I would say that one's AA is (part of) the implementation of one's financial goals (and fears). At least, this is the way I think about it. But optimizing your portfolio to maximize some j. random portfolio parameter does not necessar...
by tadamsmar
Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

This thread is a bit odd in that it conflates one's underlying goal with attributes of one's portfolio as if those two are identical. Few seem to be willing to question that assumption. They are not identical for sure, but one feeds the other, right? I would say that one's AA is (part of) the imple...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

This thread is a bit odd in that it conflates one's underlying goal with attributes of one's portfolio as if those two are identical. Few seem to be willing to question that assumption. They are not identical for sure, but one feeds the other, right? I would say that one's AA is (part of) the imple...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

Furthermore, "matching the market return" is an accurate description for the real-life financial goals of exactly zero people that I've ever met. But for some reason that I don't understand, this is something that a lot of people seem to really hang their hat on (e.g. "I'll always get whatever the ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

I don't really follow that logic. Can you really call that 'optimization' then? Maybe it's the wrong terminology. The only way that 'beat the market' might characterize optimization is if absolute returns were what you were trying to optimize, although you could simply take on more risk than the ma...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

Actually, retail investors can potentially have a significant advantage over institutional investors: patience. And 'optimization' does not necessarily mean that someone is trying to beat 'the market'. I don't really follow that logic. Can you really call that 'optimization' then? Maybe it's the wr...
by tadamsmar
Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

How likely is it that an individual can “optimize” by tinkering with their 401k’s? Actually, retail investors can potentially have a significant advantage over institutional investors: patience. And 'optimization' does not necessarily mean that someone is trying to beat 'the market'. I don't really...
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

All four of your criteria are true/false criteria. So, your result relative to your goal is either "true" or "false". You either reach your goal or you don't. I suppose you could view it that way, but I don't think it helps add insight. The practical reality is that the first two criteria are never...
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

Have you optimized the logical relationship between your goal and your portfolio construction process and your metrics? I consider myself to be pretty far toward the "maximizer" end of the spectrum when it comes to retirement portfolio construction, so I'll lay out a condensed version of my criteria...
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 25, 2019 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

I have built a portfolio that simultaneously maximizes expected diversification, minimizes expected expense, has an expected real return greater than or equal to Vanguard Target Retirement 2035 Fund (VTTHX), and has an expected annualized volatility of less than 15%. I can estimate all the paramete...
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

My stages were:

1. Set my AA
2. Inherited money and created a taxable account
3. Locked into my AA whether I like it or not. Can't change it much without paying capital gains taxes

The next stage may be:

4. Can't rebalance to my AA without paying capital gains taxes
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

I'm an optimizer, in large part because I find it entertaining. (My nurse/physical trainer/fitness competitor girlfriend makes fun of me for pretending my financial interest is only responsible when I avoid medical check-ups, drink like a fish, etc.) What I don't understand is why satisficers spend...
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

briefly scanned through this thread so I apologize if its been brought up earlier, but I believe Rick Ferri's stages of an investor are pertinent here. Maybe we'll all end up with the 3 fund portfolio! :sharebeer Rick Ferri @Rick_Ferri A successful index fund investor goes through four phases: 1) D...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 24, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

It's true that people often have tendency to view their own approach as innately superior but I think most of us try to temper that when we are aware of it. I often use language like your examples (e.g. "a total stock market fund is totally fine and reasonable choice") without intending to imply an...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

I think it can come down to fuzzy math vs clear math. Why don't we all have a 5-fund portfolio that mimics the Vanguard Target Retirement Funds? If we thought it was clearly better then we would do that. In that sense, we are all optimizers. That portfolio is probably based on Modern Portfolio Theor...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 24, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

From the OP: ...it is inherently a subjective issue... I think everyone has an objective belief that motivates them. They believe that there is good evidence that their AA provides a superior return or a superior risk-adjusted return or at least they believe that nothing is obviously better. When I ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

Harry Markowitz, the guy who got the Noble Prize for coming up with the efficient frontier and all that, famously has a 50/50 stock/bond portfolio. He felt this would minimize regret no matter what did better.

https://www.mymoneyblog.com/harry-marko ... folio.html
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

I suppose it’s correct that it is subjective. But it’s a sure thing that the outcome is completely objective. I guess the subjectivity is our way of dealing with uncertainty. My portfolio is recommended by Malkiel and has 4 funds. I don’t think it’s better than other approaches but I would not bothe...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12030

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

I doubt that anyone can prove that a simple two fund asset allocation with TBM and TSM can be improved upon. I recently listened to a talk by Fama, there was a section where he discussed the uncertainty in all the findings. He said the actual equity premium could be 1% or 10%. I think that means tha...
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Manufacturing recession and unemployment
Replies: 19
Views: 1232

Re: Manufacturing recession and unemployment

But unemployment has not ticked up: But the average hours worked per week have dropped off. There can be a lot of reasons, including softening demand. Thanks! It has declined slightly: https://www.statista.com/statistics/215643/average-weekly-working-hours-of-all-employees-in-the-us-by-month/
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Manufacturing recession and unemployment
Replies: 19
Views: 1232

Re: Manufacturing recession and unemployment

jebmke wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:07 pm
I think a recession is two sequential quarters of negative GDP so I don't see how the term relates to one sector of the economy.
That would be negative GDP growth, a contraction.

Not sure they are confirming a 2 quarters contraction in manufacturing.
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Manufacturing recession and unemployment
Replies: 19
Views: 1232

Re: Manufacturing recession and unemployment

The press is reporting that the US manufacturing sector is in recession. I am not seeing that in the linked article. Their key metric in the article is a purchasing manager “flash” survey at 49.9 (where 50 is neutral). A long way from recession... Here is a link that says it directly: https://www.m...
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Manufacturing recession and unemployment
Replies: 19
Views: 1232

Re: Manufacturing recession and unemployment

David Jay wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:03 pm
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:28 pm
The press is reporting that the US manufacturing sector is in recession.
I am not seeing that in the linked article.

Their key metric in the article is a purchasing manager “flash” survey at 49.9 (where 50 is neutral). A long way from recession...
The link works OK for me.
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Manufacturing recession and unemployment
Replies: 19
Views: 1232

Manufacturing recession and unemployment

The press is reporting that the US manufacturing sector is in recession. But unemployment has not ticked up: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-industrial-production-slumps-in-second-quarter-2019-07-16 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-unemployment/u-s-factories-show-signs-of-trouble-...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks mixed
Replies: 2
Views: 265

U.S. stocks mixed

I was waiting for a chance to start this much needed thread.

It’s an RBD where B = blah

It’s time to evaluate your coffee intake if you have any jitters.

S&P 500 is up 0.01% at my last check.

That plus the dividends would give us a fair profit.
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliability of stock data prior to 1939?
Replies: 17
Views: 1839

Re: Reliability of stock data prior to 1939?

The OP conflates 2/3 of available transactions with 2/3 of the market. Those transactions might well capture a much bigger capital-weighted chunk of the market The Wall St Journal and the Dow Jones Average were founded by the same folks and existed well before 1939. Maybe we have pretty good data on...
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Occam's Razor and Indexing
Replies: 23
Views: 2886

Re: Occam's Razor and Indexing

Rick, Does this mean you are abandoning value tilting? Brad Isn't there a considerable amount of evidence that, historically, a value tilt has resulted in higher equity total returns? Didn't Albert Einstein say "things should me made as simple as possible, but not more so"? I think Occam's Razor le...
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Occam's Razor and Indexing
Replies: 23
Views: 2886

Re: Occam's Razor and Indexing

14th century logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham. He was a major figure of medieval thought and was at the center of the major intellectual and political controversies. Ockham is best known for Occam’s razor (also written as Ockham’s razor), a principle for decision-making that stems fr...
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying an older used car - any new/different ideas?
Replies: 64
Views: 3264

Re: Buying an older used car - any new/different ideas?

I would want stability control if I was buying a car since is it is one of the most important safety features ever. But my second car (2000 CRV) is leftover from before I knew about it and I have not bothered to trade. I have been driving it less than 500 miles per year so not much yearly exposure t...
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I really do not like using credit cards. Do any of you have a good credit score with no credit cards?
Replies: 247
Views: 6009

Re: Does anyone here have no credit cards? How is that working out for you? Do you have any trouble without them?

We use a cash-back credit card for everything we can. We pay them off monthly with an auto-draft.

It would cost us to do otherwise, I think.
by tadamsmar
Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hotel recommendation for Cambridge / Boston
Replies: 53
Views: 2586

Re: Hotel recommendation for Cambridge / Boston

I had to go to Harvard to give a presentation at a symposium. It was easy to find an Airbnb or VBRO only a couple of blocks away from that campus environs where there are lots of restaurants.
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Practically speaking, what are negative interest rates
Replies: 16
Views: 2556

Re: Practically speaking, what are negative interest rates

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:08 pm
Nominal interest < inflation rate
I thought it was paying more for a bond than it will pay back in nominal total value. Am I wrong?

For instance, paying $101 for a zero-coupon bond that pays $100 at maturity.
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12034
Views: 2047363

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I just looked at my portfolio from yesterday, I had the biggest one day, at closing, money drop ever. I have more money in there then I ever had so that is the problem; more money, more problems. :? What happened to never checking your portfolio? Don't count the money when you're still sitting at t...
by tadamsmar
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is market timing bad in this case?
Replies: 52
Views: 3187

Re: Why is market timing bad in this case?

Recessions are often over by the time they are detected. Why are is market timing bad in this case? The "in this case?" part is illogical. A specific market timing plan is either good are bad, period. You need a well-defined practical signal for when to get out and when to get in. If the signals are...
by tadamsmar
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12034
Views: 2047363

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

deleted
by tadamsmar
Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negative yield?
Replies: 94
Views: 6561

Re: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negitave yeald?

... So, does the 3-fund portfolio (and similar) lack diversity? Perhaps you need to hold some short-term bills or whatever to truly match the market, assuming that Total Bond omits the short stuff. You would be unintentionally tilting. Here's the fact sheet for the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate I...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negative yield?
Replies: 94
Views: 6561

Re: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negitave yeald?

... So, does the 3-fund portfolio (and similar) lack diversity? Perhaps you need to hold some short-term bills or whatever to truly match the market, assuming that Total Bond omits the short stuff. You would be unintentionally tilting. Here's the fact sheet for the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate I...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negative yield?
Replies: 94
Views: 6561

Re: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negitave yeald?

I hold treasuries in a treasury mutual fund because I am quite happy to let the guaranteed interest and return of principal at maturity flow to the fund. Do index funds hold to maturity? A long bond fund would have to sell when a bond fell below long. One would think bonds would be easy to understa...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any former traders or market timers become buy & hold bogleheads?
Replies: 22
Views: 2599

Re: Any former traders or market timers become buy & hold bogleheads?

Most Bogleheads hold bonds and rebalance into and out of stocks. That is like having cash on the side for buying relative bargains, but we have no real expectation that these are bargains, they sometimes seem to be bargains when viewed in the rear-view mirror. They are bargains to the extent that t...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any former traders or market timers become buy & hold bogleheads?
Replies: 22
Views: 2599

Re: Any former traders or market timers become buy & hold bogleheads?

Most Bogleheads hold bonds and rebalance into and out of stocks. That is like having cash on the side for buying relative bargains, but we have no real expectation that these are bargains, they sometimes seem to be bargains when viewed in the rear-view mirror. They are bargains to the extent that th...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Tilting Increases Exposure To Unknown Risks?
Replies: 7
Views: 750

Re: Small Value Tilting Increases Exposure To Unknown Risks?

Those who tilt to small and value make the case that such a tilt increases diversification. The argument is that the tilt increases exposure to different risks. The assumption is that just as there is risk associated with the market premium, there is also risk associated with the small and value pr...
by tadamsmar
Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negative yield?
Replies: 94
Views: 6561

Re: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negitave yeald?

I hold treasuries in a treasury mutual fund because I am quite happy to let the guaranteed interest and return of principal at maturity flow to the fund. Do index funds hold to maturity? A long bond fund would have to sell when a bond fell below long. One would think bonds would be easy to understa...