Search found 450 matches

by Joe S.
Mon May 12, 2014 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Two Fund Less Popular Than Three Fund Portfolio?
Replies: 151
Views: 16861

Re: Why is Two Fund Less Popular Than Three Fund Portfolio?

I am going to approach this somewhat obliquely. The Two and Three Fund Portfolios contain no foreign bonds. Most other portfolios have no foreign bonds, although I have seen some with a small proportion of foreign bonds. Nobody talks about replacing the Total (US) Bond Fund with a total internationa...
by Joe S.
Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Example of efficient markets, or not?
Replies: 14
Views: 999

Re: Example of efficient markets, or not?

...trading of penny stock Oculus VisionTech (OVTZ) was halted after surging almost 90% in half an hour... It didn't surge 90%; that is a typo. It surged 9%. I love the comment made in the comment section of the article: There's an old story about a guy who buys $5 worth of a penny stock. The next d...
by Joe S.
Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice on selecting medical school
Replies: 30
Views: 2785

Re: Advice on selecting medical school

I am a radiologist, and I graduated in 1985, so my advice may be somewhat out of date. In the first part of medical school, you are getting similar curricula, but some medical schools have better lecturers than others. In the later years, you will be going out into hospitals, and there is great vari...
by Joe S.
Fri Jan 17, 2014 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What terms make lease to own worth it as seller?
Replies: 17
Views: 1735

Re: What terms make lease to own worth it as seller?

From my research and experience, lease to own is fraught with issues. Let's suppose he is going to rent-to-own for 20 years. After 10 years, he loses his job and has to move for new employment. Technically, he loses everything. However, I suspect he is going to feel he owns half the house , and if ...
by Joe S.
Fri Jan 17, 2014 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is a 770 account ? Too good to be true ?
Replies: 5
Views: 16675

Re: What is a 770 account ? Too good to be true ?

This is a confusing topic. Some con artists claim that banks can invest in "secret" 770 funds that pay 5% a year. This is a scam. Here is an example of a scam website pushing this sort of scam: (Do not click on it if your virus protection is not up to date, because who knows what tricks th...
by Joe S.
Fri Jan 17, 2014 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Risk Tolerance vs Risk Capacity?
Replies: 18
Views: 2801

Re: Risk Tolerance vs Risk Capacity?

There are many different theories, all slightly different on what percent stocks to have. I would suggest the Vanguard glide path used by the Vanguard Target Retirement Funds. Assuming you retire at age 65, you would stay ~90% in stocks til age 40, then drop to ~25 by age 72. A very aggressive inves...
by Joe S.
Wed Jan 15, 2014 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Anti-Target Date Retirement Strategy
Replies: 48
Views: 4827

Re: The Anti-Target Date Retirement Strategy

... However, I would have to ask what software you used for your Monte-Carlo simulations, because I would like to play around with it. ... I can see if you are doing a computer simulation, It might make sense to set up a rising glide path so you can catch up if there is an early bear market. But in...
by Joe S.
Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Anti-Target Date Retirement Strategy
Replies: 48
Views: 4827

Re: The Anti-Target Date Retirement Strategy

I find their results hard to believe. Everyone else finds that a dropping glide paths have a higher success rate. I suspect there is some error in their calculation. Actually I believe the research is sound. Wade Pfau posts often on this forum, and his research is generally very thorough. I have al...
by Joe S.
Mon Jan 13, 2014 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Anti-Target Date Retirement Strategy
Replies: 48
Views: 4827

Re: The Anti-Target Date Retirement Strategy

Here's a link to the actual paper: m I find their results hard to believe. Everyone else finds that a dropping glide paths have a higher success rate. I suspect there is some error in their calculation. Their table 2 suggests with a 4% withdrawal rate you should have a rising glide path; but table 3...
by Joe S.
Thu Jan 09, 2014 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Should You Count Social Security as a Bond?"
Replies: 75
Views: 5003

Re: "Should You Count Social Security as a Bond?"

Does Bogle really believe that Moe has some reason to have higher equity weightings than Larry simply because he is drawing SS? In your example if Moe's portfolio drops 50%, he has a 37.5% drop in income. If Larry's portfolio drops 50%, he has a 50% drop in income. Therefore Moe has less risk from ...
by Joe S.
Thu Jan 09, 2014 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with sibling's school loans
Replies: 40
Views: 3399

Re: Help with sibling's school loans

Thanks everyone, really appreciate all of the great replies! I discussed this with sibling and they're going to pay off the $3,500 loan completely right now, do the "snowball" plan for the rest and then tackle that large one. I also suggested ways for them to get a few hundred more per mo...
by Joe S.
Wed Jan 08, 2014 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Returns 1802-2012 (look at gold)
Replies: 24
Views: 4012

Re: Investment Returns 1802-2012 (look at gold)

These are really interesting perspectives...but can someone add REAL ESTATE even if its location specific ? (London, Manhattan, etc)...(of course Real estate seems to have high returns based on leverage). Matt Calculating real estate return is difficult, because you have to estimate taxes, upkeep a...
by Joe S.
Sun Jan 05, 2014 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Returns 1802-2012 (look at gold)
Replies: 24
Views: 4012

Re: Investment Returns 1802-2012 (look at gold)

If someone came to me with a $1 bill from 1800 I would probably give them up to five dollars for it. I guess that means money under the mattress wins if you hold it long enough to be collectible. --Keanwood Actually Jeremy Siegel has said this: "Ironically, despite the inflationary bias of a p...
by Joe S.
Sun Jan 05, 2014 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: aaaaa
Replies: 13
Views: 1658

Re: Is there a theoretical limit to the size of the stock ma

As I see it (sitting in an armchair philosophizing) historically stock portfolios rose in value mostly due to dividend reinvestment. ( http://www.dividendchannel.com/history/ ) However companies also hold back some of the earnings from dividends and use it to grow the company. Companies grow for two...
by Joe S.
Sun Jan 05, 2014 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: aaaaa
Replies: 13
Views: 1658

Re: Is there a theoretical limit to the size of the stock ma

Is there a theoretical limit to price to earnings ratio? For S&P500, it maxed out at 129 in 2009. 129 times gross world product is a reasonable limit. Say, 10 quadrillion today's dollars. There are problems with using P/E ratios during recessions, because earnings may be only temporarily depres...
by Joe S.
Sun Jan 05, 2014 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Returns 1802-2012 (look at gold)
Replies: 24
Views: 4012

Re: Investment Returns 1802-2012 (look at gold)

Few questions: Who trusts any of the data from 1800?? ?survivorship bias The 1802-1870 is the data cobbled together by Siegel, and some writers suspect it may have survivorship bias. 1870-1926 in the Cowles data, and they appear to have made a good attempt to avoid survivorship bias. The 1926-prese...
by Joe S.
Sun Jan 05, 2014 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Returns 1802-2012 (look at gold)
Replies: 24
Views: 4012

Re: Investment Returns 1802-2012 (look at gold)

For those who like a graph, I will post this graph of Jerry Siegel's data again. I think Taylor Larimore originally posted it. http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3789/11505938514_743d739101_o.png From comments people on Bogleheads have made. the following caveats should be mentioned: 1) The data from 180...
by Joe S.
Sun Jan 05, 2014 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Novice Indexer With Interest in Ethical Investing
Replies: 9
Views: 1225

Re: Novice Indexer With Interest in Ethical Investing

*Even with a less than 50% equity exposure I have some concerns about buying stock index funds right now with the market so high (Dollar cost average over the next year?) As the earnings of companies rise, their price will rise too. Many of us like to look at the price/earnings (P/E) ratio to see i...
by Joe S.
Sun Jan 05, 2014 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What did you do with unwanted baby gear?
Replies: 22
Views: 1705

Re: What did you do with unwanted baby gear?

We stored our baby/toddler stuff in the attic, and eventually some family member/friend wanted it. Getting rid of the double stroller took the longest, but my sister had two kids close together and wanted it.
by Joe S.
Fri Jan 03, 2014 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Return of Gold
Replies: 44
Views: 4774

Re: Expected Return of Gold

As I have argued before, I believe that gold has had a real (inflation adjusted) return of 0% historically, especially if you look over many centuries. For instance according to this article: "..a laborer would earn about one drachma per day in the fifth century [BC] or 0.004 troy ounces of gol...
by Joe S.
Fri Jan 03, 2014 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Return of Gold
Replies: 44
Views: 4774

Re: Expected Return of Gold

Joe, I realize you like that chart (I believe it is Jeremy Siegel's Total Real Return Indices) but here are some personal observations about it. It is Jeremy Siegel's chart. I stole it from a post by Taylor Larimore. The price of gold was pegged to the dollar until 1971. Comparing stock returns to ...
by Joe S.
Tue Dec 31, 2013 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Return of Gold
Replies: 44
Views: 4774

Re: Expected Return of Gold

I forget who I stole this chart from, but it shows that gold has averaged ~0.7% over inflation over the last 200 years. If you go back to the ancient Assyrians, the return on gold is about 0.0% over inflation.

Image
by Joe S.
Wed Nov 06, 2013 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you relocate to a city with a wage tax? (Pittsburgh)
Replies: 42
Views: 4398

Re: Would you relocate to a city with a wage tax? (Pittsburg

Pittsburgh has a much lower cost of living than New York. Rent is horrendously lower in Pittsburgh than New York City. Other prices are also lower. However, compared to New York City, we are very boring. You are not going to have the great variety of activities you have in NYC.
by Joe S.
Wed Nov 06, 2013 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dilbert creator weighs in on the active/passive debate
Replies: 16
Views: 2248

Re: Dilbert creator weighs in on the active/passive debate

http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/100000/60000/3000/300/163329/163329.strip.gif http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/100000/60000/2000/800/162863/162863.strip.gif http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/100000/50000/7000/700/15770...
by Joe S.
Wed Nov 06, 2013 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dilbert creator weighs in on the active/passive debate
Replies: 16
Views: 2248

Re: Dilbert creator weighs in on the active/passive debate

We have discussed Dilbert on previous posts as well, for those who are interested:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=80503&hilit=dilbert
by Joe S.
Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hindenburg Omen
Replies: 18
Views: 2472

Re: Hindenburg Omen

William explained that the indicator, which should be used in conjunction with others , is a very practical indication of a classic distribution in a stock market and measures leadership rotation by filtering out stocks which are reaching their 52 week highs and lows. It predicted all the biggest d...
by Joe S.
Wed Aug 14, 2013 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Eating] Fish
Replies: 119
Views: 13637

Re: [Eating] Fish

Lobsters on sale $4 a lb next week here. Want to buy some and ship it to me It's selling for $16-18 lb where I live. My grandfather was a recreational lobsterman so growing up I used to eat unlimited amounts of the stuff. Does anyone order it online? Still seems pricey. I bet you live near a lobste...
by Joe S.
Tue Jul 30, 2013 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Single Favorite Mutual Fund
Replies: 51
Views: 5020

Re: Single Favorite Mutual Fund

Well I could say it's the Vanguard Emerging Markets fund, because that's the fund that has earned me the best return, although I don't put much money in it. Alternately, I could say it is the Total Stock Market fund, because that's what I put the most money in. Alternately, I could say it is the Van...
by Joe S.
Mon Jul 15, 2013 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thesis: "Current secular bear market is an opportunity."
Replies: 63
Views: 7563

Re: Thesis: "Current secular bear market is an opportunity."

My final argument was: Now is a golden time for young investors to add. Historically, there is a rotation between secular bull and bear markets. We have been for 13 years in a secular bear market. A new secular bull market might start today, tomorrow, next year, over 5 years, ..., but at least - an...
by Joe S.
Sun Jul 14, 2013 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does this mean I don't believe in the efficient market theor
Replies: 28
Views: 2290

Re: Does this mean I don't believe in the efficient market t

sometimesinvestor wrote: Does the efficient market theory not apply here and by here I mean picking up money on the street? By the way , the dime was real.


Most of us think that the stock and bond markets are efficient markets. That does not mean the street is an "efficient market."
by Joe S.
Mon Jul 08, 2013 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 27% returns for angels....
Replies: 20
Views: 2827

Re: 27% returns for angels....

That data point {27% return} comes from the Angel Capital Education Foundation/Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation study of Angel Investing Groups and refers to the average IRR. . Reading the methodology section of this report, it notes there may be some biases with the data: This survey approach has ...
by Joe S.
Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ground Beef - is 30%fat the same as 7% fat after draining?
Replies: 18
Views: 2792

Re: Ground Beef - is 30%fat the same as 7% fat after drainin

This article supports what I thought I remembered reading some time ago on Mens Health: m It looks like it reduces the fat content by about 50%. Not directly to your question, but there is more and more of a movement that natural animal fat is not the main culprit in making people fat. It's the pro...
by Joe S.
Wed Jul 03, 2013 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Foreign stocks as a % of your stock asset allocation
Replies: 61
Views: 9016

Re: Foreign stocks as a % of your stock asset allocation

Although the US is only about 40% of the global equity market by valuation, a 30% allocation to foreign stocks by US investors has been a good middle-of-the-road allocation. I believe this is still warranted. The US has been leading the rest of the developed world in recent years, and I don't see m...
by Joe S.
Tue Jul 02, 2013 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexers Are Average?
Replies: 22
Views: 2511

Re: Indexers Are Average?

Your stocks have an average return. However index funds have below average expenses and below average tax costs. So after expenses and taxes, you are doing better than the average investor. Also index funds have greater diversity, that lowers your risk. If you bought active funds, their higher risk ...
by Joe S.
Thu Jun 27, 2013 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is "buying organic" food worth it?
Replies: 89
Views: 7120

Re: Is "buying organic" food worth it?

My kids' play dough and markers aren't toxic either, that doesn't mean I'm going to start serving them for dinner. If I had a fruit that had miniscule trace amounts of play-doh on it, I wouldn't refuse to eat it. If it had a lot of play-doh on it, I might well change my mind. Fruit has traces of al...
by Joe S.
Thu Jun 27, 2013 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is "buying organic" food worth it?
Replies: 89
Views: 7120

Re: Is "buying organic" food worth it?

These pesticides are very deadly This is a frequent misconception of the lay public. Insecticides seem scary because they kill animals. But all pesticides are tested and found not to be deadly to mammals like us. Yes, because something doesn't make you drop dead must mean it isn't bad for you.... Y...
by Joe S.
Thu Jun 27, 2013 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is "buying organic" food worth it?
Replies: 89
Views: 7120

Re: Is "buying organic" food worth it?

none of it (that I have seen) points to any benefit It is clear you aren't convinced. I am. This thread asked a simple question about eating preferences. I stated mine and the reasons why. I have no interest in arguing about who's eggplant can beat up the other. If you don't want to eat food labele...
by Joe S.
Wed Jun 26, 2013 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is "buying organic" food worth it?
Replies: 89
Views: 7120

Re: Is "buying organic" food worth it?

This is a frequent misconception of the lay public. Insecticides seem scary because they kill animals. But all pesticides are tested and found not to be deadly to mammals like us. The term "pesticides" can refer to things that can kill animals and humans, like the naturally occurring pest...
by Joe S.
Wed Jun 26, 2013 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is "buying organic" food worth it?
Replies: 89
Views: 7120

Re: Is "buying organic" food worth it?

Its a marketing ploy now (or perhaps always). Disagree. The marketing ploy is that organic is not better and is too expensive. Think who has big bucks, the conventional companies. Organic is only a small slice of the pie and most large growers and companies barely participate. They are the ones wit...
by Joe S.
Sun Jun 23, 2013 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If a bank offered you 7% on 1 yr deposits..
Replies: 57
Views: 6939

Re: If a bank offered you 7% on 1 yr deposits..

No secret but I'm not looking for comments on the country - just the question at hand assuming that you are satisfied with the bank, the coutry, the regulatory framework, the macroeconomic outlook of the country ..and so on. If the U.S. Government was offering 5% on U.S. dollars, I'd put all my bon...
by Joe S.
Thu Jun 20, 2013 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the Market having a major sell off?
Replies: 121
Views: 10378

Re: Why is the Market having a major sell off?

http://i39.tinypic.com/3314084.jpg Nobody was ever able to assign a definite cause to this. It turned out to be an excellent time to buy. http://rlv.zcache.com/wall_street_crash_1929_newspaper_headline_poster-r3f00f5b2745946f1ba029bbca5acb24c_ai07w_8byvr_216.jpg Nobody was ever able to assign a def...
by Joe S.
Thu Jun 20, 2013 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: understanding MOMENTUM in stock returns
Replies: 4
Views: 581

Re: understanding MOMENTUM in stock returns

Joe I made that point about statistical significance in the piece--citing Professor Moskowitz who helped me with the piece I was quoting from your piece when I said the T-stat was just over 2. Why I find your discussion interesting, I am very leery of "technical analysis" which is barely ...
by Joe S.
Thu Jun 20, 2013 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: understanding MOMENTUM in stock returns
Replies: 4
Views: 581

Re: understanding MOMENTUM in stock returns

(This post is meant for people who have some background in statistics analysis) There are innumerable studies out there where academicians try to separate the good stock buys from the bad stock buys. There have also been many different methods used to measure momentum. We know that by luck alone, on...
by Joe S.
Thu Jun 13, 2013 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not happy with market
Replies: 148
Views: 16209

When designing an asset allocation plan, you have to decide how much risk you can take, considering how far you are from retirement. You also have to decide how much volatility you can stomach, and that is hard to estimate before you get into the market. I suspect you are having trouble stomaching t...
by Joe S.
Thu May 30, 2013 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for child w/o affecting financial aid?
Replies: 24
Views: 2139

Re: Investing for child w/o affecting financial aid?

yes, I've got loads of thoughts, but I'll spare you most of them. A few, though: You're trying to involve an innocent 3 year old in hiding assets. Kids learn from what you do more than from what you say... I think you are way off base. Trying to plan prudently so you can get the most benefit in Fin...
by Joe S.
Sat May 25, 2013 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does Vinegar kill weeds?
Replies: 31
Views: 3958

Re: Does Vinegar kill weeds?

I am done polluting my soil with Roundup. I'm curious why you consider Roundup to be pollution. ... The original poster would have to answer that question, but perhaps s/he is bothered (I certainly am) by reports like these: m m This paper is a review article which discusses many theoretical reason...
by Joe S.
Sat May 25, 2013 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does Vinegar kill weeds?
Replies: 31
Views: 3958

Re: Does Vinegar kill weeds?

I am done polluting my soil with Roundup. I'm curios why you consider Roundup to be pollution... It gets into bodies of water and is a major factor in frog die-off. It reduces testosterone production and causes birth abnormalities in various animals. The EPA requires that people stay off treated ar...
by Joe S.
Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Take on Gold
Replies: 213
Views: 24803

Re: My Take on Gold

Here is a link to an article supportive of owning gold. m I especially liked the chart US Debt and Debt limit Vs Gold. A classic on how to lie with statistics. The graph does a number of things to overstate the case. If you don't torture the data it still says that both the debt and the price of go...
by Joe S.
Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Take on Gold
Replies: 213
Views: 24803

Re: My Take on Gold

My chemistry class once toured an Engelhard Industries refinery. We got to pass around a 50 pound gold ingot. It is indeed impressive, even if you didn't know it was worth $150,000. It wasn't shiny however, more of a matte yellow. When was a 50 lb gold ingot worth 150K? not this century I would gue...
by Joe S.
Thu Apr 18, 2013 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: today's Dilbert cartoon
Replies: 31
Views: 6056

Re: today's Dilbert cartoon

http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/000000/60000/4000/700/64750/64750.strip.gif http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/000000/00000/6000/600/6660/6660.strip.gif http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/000000/00000/6000/600/6659/6659.s...