Search found 1595 matches

by steve roy
Tue May 14, 2019 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it
Replies: 149
Views: 10728

Re: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it

Brain waves come, and brain waves go. A few years back at this very forum, many were extolling the virtues of "The Permanent Portfolio" (25% GLD, 25% Total Stock Market; 25% long term Treausries; 25% Short Term Treasuries). For a while, this portfolio did outstandingly well. The "oohs" and "aahhs" w...
by steve roy
Mon Apr 08, 2019 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing beats Wellington and Wellesley right?
Replies: 101
Views: 15432

Re: Indexing beats Wellington and Wellesley right?

I went back as far as I could (Jan 1987) comparing Vanguard 500 at 67/Total Bond at 33 to see how it would relatively compare to Wellington ...and I threw Wellesey into the mix. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMont...
by steve roy
Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a relatively stable junk bond fund?
Replies: 43
Views: 4695

Re: Is there a relatively stable junk bond fund?

Perhaps a better option would be Vanguard's Target Date Income fund ... or Vanguard's Life-Strategy Income fund.

High quality, broad-based bonds mixed with equities.
by steve roy
Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Folks in their 60s and above. What early investment on health do you recommend.
Replies: 193
Views: 13081

Re: Folks in their 60s and above. What early investment on health do you recommend.

Brisk walking. (One-plus hour, seven days per week -- no set mileage). On daily rounds, climb stairs rather thn ride elevators or escalators. Upper body strength-training twice a week -- light free weights, machines, pushups, sit-ups (etc.). Diet: Fish, chicken, vegetables (minimal beef, pork, desse...
by steve roy
Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing beats Wellington and Wellesley right?
Replies: 101
Views: 15432

Re: Indexing beats Wellington and Wellesley right?

If everyone agrees that indexing is superior to actively-managed funds, then why is Wellington and Wellesley still so popular? Not to mention that Wellington and Wellesley have higher expenses as well. Doesn't it make sense to just skip Wellington/Wellesley and build your own "Three-Fund or Four-Fu...
by steve roy
Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:30 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 129
Views: 24851

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything

dodecahedron wrote:
Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:38 pm
steve roy wrote:
Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:44 am
The Finnish have the secret sauce.
The discrepancy between the ranking of Finland´s arithmetic averages vs. their geometric averages tells us that Finland has had a much higher volatility roller coast ride than the other high ranked countries.
"Finnish"? Good golly. How about "The Finns"?
by steve roy
Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:44 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 129
Views: 24851

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything

The Finnish have the secret sauce.
by steve roy
Sun Mar 31, 2019 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fido Screws Up and Says "Tough Luck"
Replies: 32
Views: 3142

Re: Fido Screws Up and Says "Tough Luck"

If they were three bad weeks would you be demanding Fidelity remove 350 from your account? Seems fair to me. Interestingly, when I was trying to get invested money away from a Financial Advisor I didn't like, he kept sitting on the assets and sitting on the assets. For months. (And my rage increase...
by steve roy
Sun Mar 31, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory
Replies: 74
Views: 5529

Re: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:35 pm
What you missed is the author, Richard Kiyosaki, made his fortune by selling works of fiction, not by following his own advice.
PJW
Perhaps a case of "Do as I say, not as I do."

The life-story he presents is a tad fictional, no?
by steve roy
Sun Mar 31, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone here with net worths north of $1 mil use financial advisors?
Replies: 334
Views: 49479

Re: Does anyone here with net worths north of $1 mil use financial advisors?

I guess if you have a Vanguard Target Date or LifeStrategy Fund, or the Wellesley Fund (and I have two out of three), a person COULD argue that they have a professionally managed account ... and are therefore using "financial advisors".
by steve roy
Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone here with net worths north of $1 mil use financial advisors?
Replies: 334
Views: 49479

Re: Does anyone here with net worths north of $1 mil use financial advisors?

Ixnay, no way.

When you're badly burned, you tend not to go where the fire can hurt you again.
by steve roy
Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College for average kids
Replies: 72
Views: 4823

Re: College for average kids

For us it was simple. Older kid LOVED to work, but disliked school and academics. He dropped out of community college after three semesters and went to work for a large airline, where he is now a manager. Younger kid didn't have stellar grades (B average), so he went to a community college and then ...
by steve roy
Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11314

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

You can never know with any precision what millions of people/investors will do with their money at any given moment in time.
by steve roy
Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11314

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

Lots of people take past performance into account. If Large Cap index funds have a P/E of 20, and a P/B of 4, those numbers derive from past performance, and analysts estimate future earnings based on those numbers. So let's stipulate that you can't accurately predict future results, but you can mak...
by steve roy
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Not Caring
Replies: 61
Views: 6485

Re: The Power of Not Caring

Back in my working life, I was the business representative for an entertainment union. I gloried in things going right. Business was booming, so most things DID go right. But then, several years into the job, the Good Times in Movieland turned south and people started losing their jobs. And people s...
by steve roy
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Glide Path
Replies: 26
Views: 3082

Re: Reverse Glide Path

I plan to increase equities further into retirement. (I'm in the third year of retirement now.) The way I plan to do it is stay relatively conservative until late seventies (30/70), then shift to 40/60 or 50/50. I will likely use a combination of Life Strategy funds and individual index funds to get...
by steve roy
Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Solid income portfolio?
Replies: 9
Views: 1147

Re: Solid income portfolio?

You could rope in various instruments for income. Since what you show is higher risk, lower risk instruments could be ... Vanguard Short-Term Bond Vanguard Prime Money Market Laddered bank CDs ... Higher Risk stuff (like you already have) ... Pimco Enhanced Short Maturity Active ETF Fidelity Floatin...
by steve roy
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best Funds for New Taxable Account Seven Years to Retirement
Replies: 3
Views: 393

Re: Best Funds for New Taxable Account Seven Years to Retirement

VG Tax-Managed Balanaced Fund, or

VG Three-Fund -- Total Stock Market; Total International Stock Fund, Intermediate Tax Exempt ...

There will be some taxes involved. Way it works.
by steve roy
Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What time do you start your day?
Replies: 69
Views: 3011

Re: What time do you start your day?

Used to rise at 6, then power walk, then shower and 10 minute drive to office by 8:15 to 8:30.

Now it's anywhere from 6 to 9:30, then coffee, then a LONGER power walk. And no office.

Retirement is great.
by steve roy
Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Smartest Investing Moves
Replies: 24
Views: 3469

Re: Smartest Investing Moves

Fidelity did a study of its most successful investors, and found that the most successful investors were individuals who forgot they had investments at Fidelity.

So it's obvious to me. Getting amnesia after setting up your investments accounts is the smartest move you can make.
by steve roy
Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could Vanguard be right about International Bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 4701

Re: Could Vanguard be right about International Bonds?

Here's a link to a document of the Congressional Research Service. Has the U.S. Government Ever “Defaulted”? , D. Andrew Austin, Analyst in Economic Policy, December 8, 2016 The U.S. Treasury in some historical instances was unable to pay all its obligations on time or made payments on terms that d...
by steve roy
Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3741
Views: 1077831

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Ron Chernow's biography of Ulysses Grant. Long but engrossing. Chernow's thesis is that Grant as an outstanding General, the ONLY Union General to succeed against Lee, and a flawed President that got a big thing right: Reconstruction and the protection of freed slaves.

Very much worth reading.
by steve roy
Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Should I reduce my stock exposure?]
Replies: 15
Views: 908

Re: [Should I reduce my stock exposure?]

I'm a wee bit older than the OP, with enough money stashed away for a comfortable retirement,p lus a goodly cash flow with SS (taken at 70), moderate pension, and IRAs. My asset allocation is 30/70 (stocks/fixed) because I don't want to take a big hit at the front end of my retirement, and I "have e...
by steve roy
Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?
Replies: 133
Views: 7700

Re: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?

The only thing I did was Tax Loss Harvest a recently-purchased ETF and rebalanced to my usual 30/70 allocation. Outside of that, nothing was bought or sold. Only now I have $30k in stock losses to use, so good for me. My advice to people who get jittery when the market declines is ... don't look at ...
by steve roy
Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Overall Asset Allocations and Recommendations Help
Replies: 12
Views: 617

Re: Portfolio Review and Recommendations - Help

I think you need to pin down what you want your asset allocation to be across your entire portfolio? 90% stocks? The simple thing would be 80% Total Stock Market; 20% Total International, then your bond allocation. You could slice and dice, so that you weight some of your assets to small cap value, ...
by steve roy
Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Approximating the Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund in employee 401k
Replies: 5
Views: 326

Re: Approximating the Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund in employee 401k

Anything from 80/20 (large cap/mid-small cap) to 65/35 is fine. One thing I've learned: if you're close, you're good. Five percent one way or the other makes little difference.
by steve roy
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 4464
Views: 1154196

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

"The Upside" Quadriplegic (Bryan Cranston) hires ex-con (Kevin Hart) as a life assistant. Comedy, drama, and personal growth ensue. Actually a pretty good flick, which we enjoyed. Kevin Hart has some pretty good acting chops here, and Cranston is an old pro who seldom gives a bad performance (and do...
by steve roy
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is a Boglehead funeral/burial?
Replies: 153
Views: 8327

Re: What is a Boglehead funeral/burial?

Burial arrangements?

Brown wrapping paper, twine, and a large dumpster in the dead of night ought to do just fine.
by steve roy
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is California worth the premium?
Replies: 89
Views: 5427

Re: Is California worth the premium?

I grew up a few miles north of L.A. and spent summers in Laguna Beach, one of the small coastal towns between San Diego and Santa Barbara. Laguna was (and is) kind of typical of a lot of coastal communities in So. Cal -- mountains just back of the beach, a narrow strip of sand, lots of surfers, and ...
by steve roy
Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is California worth the premium?
Replies: 89
Views: 5427

Re: Is California worth the premium?

It's a personal preference. For me living in a place with sunshine that's not too hot or too cold at least 330 days of the year, is not humid, and does not have biting bugs, hurricanes/tornados, or ice storms has a lot of value. Yes, but it does have some frisky earthquakes. I rode out a number of ...
by steve roy
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle's Obituary From The Family
Replies: 48
Views: 15603

Re: Jack Bogle's Obituary From The Family

My wife and I have vivid memories of Jack's talks at the three Boglehead meetings we attended in PA. Mr. Bogle was always crisp, clear and forceful with his views on investing and the state of Wall Street. His Q & A sessions were always entertaining and useful. A long life, well-lived. He was a forc...
by steve roy
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Dirt Simple Wins Again. Couch Potato Portfolio"
Replies: 20
Views: 4533

Re: "Dirt Simple Wins Again. Couch Potato Portfolio"

I keep coming back to Target Date/LifeStrategy Funds. One stop, broad diversification, and (as Mr. Burns says) dirt simple.
by steve roy
Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 220
Views: 15961

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

Currently our allocation is 27% stocks, 73% bonds. 17.5% of the stock allocation is international. Two months ago, it was 10% higher but we sold a large slug Vanguard's FTSE small cap international ETF because Tax Loss Harvesting. Haven't gotten back in. Since we're at the beginning of retirement, s...
by steve roy
Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]
Replies: 137
Views: 20856

Re: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]

Here you go:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summerlin,_Nevada

Summerlin is 3000 to 4000 feet above sea level. Four seasons, a couple of hot months (okay, maybe three) and a forty-minute drive to mountains and skiing. Ten-minute access to gambling casinos. Lots and lots of gambling casinos.
by steve roy
Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing in a down market
Replies: 9
Views: 1427

Re: Rebalancing in a down market

This is a wee bit like chasing smoke. If you rode out the 2008-2009 meltdown without touching any of your investments, tax-deferred or otherwise, you would have been made whole (i.e., what you had in December, 2007) within a relatively few years. Because market bounce-back. But the next meltdown mig...
by steve roy
Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we at "Peak FI"?
Replies: 93
Views: 10157

Re: Are we at "Peak FI"?

Because Mrs. Steve Roy and I have pensions and Social Security, we have a reasonably healthy cash flow. That being the case, we only have 24% equities in our portfolios. (Why play the game when you don't need to?) So. The downtick hasn't really impacted us much. And we've stopped looking at our Vang...
by steve roy
Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those retired a few years
Replies: 58
Views: 4938

Re: For those retired a few years

Retired twenty-five months. Year One was travel. Some extra expenses but nothing that was exorbitant. Year Two was prepping principal residence for sale and moving to our second house in a neighboring state. Renters of the second house departed and we suddenly were paying for TWO mortgages instead o...
by steve roy
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy
Replies: 19
Views: 1238

Re: Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy

I (we) use two approaches. We use the "never sell" for investment accounts. Most of the mutual funds the Mrs. and I own show profits, and we have no interest in paying taxes on them. (The one exception: we had a big loss on the Vanguard FTSE small cap international fund, and that one we sold to harv...
by steve roy
Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 949
Views: 252455

Re: What is your Year 2018 networth change?

Assets down 1.1%.
by steve roy
Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: First stab at index investing; thoughts on my portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 917

Re: First stab at index investing; thoughts on my portfolio

You've got a very reasonable investment allocation. The trick will be sticking with it in these turbulent times.
by steve roy
Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3741
Views: 1077831

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

"Appaloosa" by Robert B. Parker Parker's initial foray into the Western genre. Two gunslingers, Virgil Cole and Everett Hitch, become marshals of the town Appaloosa. Much gunplay transpires. The book reads like a combination of High Noon, Dodge City, Rio Bravo, and a 1959 Western titled Warlock. The...
by steve roy
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 255
Views: 23872

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

We're sitting tight. Neither buying nor selling.

When in doubt, sit on your keester.
by steve roy
Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 4464
Views: 1154196

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

"Green Book" (directed by Peter Farelly of all people). White Italian man from New Yawk drives a highly educated black pianist on his music tour through the deep south. Some narrative points are too on-the-nose (i.e., heavy-handed), but it's a good and interesting story and the principle actors give...
by steve roy
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession Coming
Replies: 56
Views: 7703

Re: Recession Coming

Recession coming?

Put your assets into an allocation you can live with (70/30;60/40; 40/60/ 30/70 -- choose ONE) and then ...

STOP LOOKING AT THE DAILY RESULTS OF YOUR ASSET ALLOCATION.

RESOLVE TO LOOK AT YOUR HOLDINGS ON JUNE 8, 2022 AND NOT BEFORE.
by steve roy
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Claiming dilemma-Would love opinions
Replies: 29
Views: 2946

Re: Social Security Claiming dilemma-Would love opinions

My rule of thumb: take SS when it is most optimum to your individual situation.

And you seem like a pretty good candidate for taking Social Security early, given your spouse's situation.
by steve roy
Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percentage of your net worth is your home equity?
Replies: 309
Views: 22632

Re: What percentage of your net worth is your home equity?

Fourteen percent. We sold the older, bigger house that had a LOT of equity and down-sized.
by steve roy
Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement itch- when did you get it?
Replies: 145
Views: 15022

Re: Retirement itch- when did you get it?

Early 60s but I hung on until my late 60s. Job was interesting and I could mostly call my own shots, but it became increasingly stressful. I departed at 68 and was ready (and happy) to go. It’s been two years now and that I made the right choice is increasingly apparent. I spent a long time planning...
by steve roy
Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: pros and cons of target date funds?
Replies: 71
Views: 9665

Re: pros and cons of target date funds?

I also noticed a $75 cost regularly for target date when I had one. This $75 was regardless of the value of the account. What’s up with that above and beyond the 0.16% It's probably an administrative fee the plan sponsor tacks on to pay for the provided 401(k) plan. There's three ways (more or less...
by steve roy
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Current Retirees: Do you touch your principal?
Replies: 79
Views: 8462

Re: Current Retirees: Do you touch your principal?

The answer is “yes”, but our principal is growing due to the sale of a house. We’ve had some surprise expenses but we should have a positive cash flow after Social Security and RMD payments kick in, 45 days hence.
by steve roy
Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't I read about this strategy more? [12-month moving average, momentum]
Replies: 110
Views: 15220

Re: Why don't I read about this strategy more? [12-month moving average, momentum]

A Fidelity study pinpointed who among us are the most successful investors. ... O'Shaughnessy: "Fidelity had done a study as to which accounts had done the best at Fidelity. And what they found was..." Ritholtz: "They were dead." O'Shaughnessy: "...No, that's close though! They were the accounts of ...