Bogleheads.org

I just don't feel the incentive to invest new money for longer term than short.

Currently Vanguard Ultra-Short ETF VUSB has 4.66% yield. Total Bond ETF BND is 4.08%. Not much compensation for a lot less risk (2% versus 18.6% on a 52 week variant),

Is this short-sighted? Am I missing an opportunity to get into BND at a good price before bond prices head downward?

Only one post since last year suggests the insane real estate market is now over.

Honestly, it seems the good stuff is still selling but the marginal real estate will only move with significant price reduction. I looked at a somewhat flawed house in a great location where the seller has dropped from 1.4 to 1.2 and now 1 million. Even the selling agent admitted to us it has no chance to sell at that price. However, the seller can't adjust to the new reality.

I was held up at gunpoint and lost my only luxury watch. Would never go through that again.

Unfortunately, in some markets, you can't rent and buy the same properties. You'll sometimes live better in a place you own. I wanted floor heating, a sauna room, view of the mountains, etc - I could do that to my own house, even if renting would come out cheaper. For some people, of course, the benefits of ownership might not matter.

Always stocks 1st in accounts with no taxes on the way out (Roth) due to the higher long-term returns, and fixed income in acounts that tax at much higher regular rates when withdrawiing (trad IRA/401k) due to lower long-term returns.

Thanks to all the experts for all the great info.

Will my broker send me a statement that lists phantom interest for the previous year to help me with my taxes?

Is phantom interest something that I'd have to deal with only the first year after buying the bond, or each year I hold it?

(Wish I had more space in tax deferred)

Our question is regarding college counseling. The high school has 3 counsellors for 450 students. I wouldn't worry about the numbers so much. Only about 60% of U.S. seniors attend college so that brings that down to 3 counsellors for 270 students. 25% of those attend local community college and thus probably don't use counseling services much if at all bringing it down to roughly 200 students. So that is one counsellor for roughly 68 students OP's "reputed public high school in Bay Area" may not have reflect those proportions. Also, huge numbers of families from this school may have expectations set for the same reputed California schools, and this may make it hard for the garden-variety applicant to stand out. From this school, ...

Do you need a private counselor? Of course not.

Would you like to have one? That's up to you. Put it in same category as private golf pro.

Great funds/ETFs - own 'em through a better company like Fidelity and you're gold.

Good - lot of security analysis being discussed - and some improvements being suggested along the way. these security holes don’t exist for other brokerages !? Or, these lapses exist only for Fidelity (or others as well) - just trying to figure context/scope here .. use GV (where allowed) different Username/PWs at different sites (and different secure emails yo these different accounts - i know this in-itself is not security., but helps obfuscate/confuse things a bit for the potential hacker) check/validate accounts frequently Get emails updates on Transactions among other things to pay careful attention to account(s) - this especially helps to report/legally-fix things within 30/60 days … got identity protection coverage thru one of the e...

I have a feeling we're going to be seeing more cash sales on craigslist. Not to cheat, but to avoid the hassle of dealing with the paperwork of selling something I bought 10 years ago for $400 and am onloading for $100.

Some money market funds are over 4%. For what you want, I think it's hard to beat that. 3 month treasuries at secondary auction about the same with the added advantage that you save state income tax.

Ultra-short bond funds tend to be longer than the your preferred duration.

secondopinion wrote: ↑Wed Dec 28, 2022 4:13 pm Where do you wait in the meantime? Seriously, inflation is still biting even when the real yields are low. I guess cashlike investments, but there is risk waiting for the deal to come along because of the inflation.

Yes, maybe that's a shortcoming of my approach, but I stick with CDs, intermediate/short-term bonds and sometimes money market.

I approach air travel differently than many here. I learned from Paul Theroux that the journey is often more interesting than the destination. It also helps that I'm semi-retired, so not usually in a frantic rush to arrive.

I am tall so I appreciate leg room and am willing to pay for it.

Beyond that, I try to enjoy my time in airports - observing how differently people act in different parts of the US or world, take advantage of the lounges and bars, check the art exhibits, if all else fails find a great place to read. I check a bag, but have a change of clothes in my backpack just in case.

I figure there are few investments out there as transparent as TIPS.

In my case, I buy individual TIPS when I can get them over 2% real. I back up the truck at 3%. Seems to reach that level every decade or so.

When TIPs are below 1% real, I do not buy. I never buy TIPS funds as I don't want to lose control of the purchase price that the fund buys TIPS at.

Anything I'm missing out on with that approach?

Hate to be undiplomatically blunt, but belief in no higher than a 2.7% SWR suggests a level of paranoia about low stock returns bordering on mental illness.

OP clearly has done much better than if they had typical Boglehead investments throughout their investing lifetime. Is this "lucky"? Maybe. I'd say it's more that OP took more risk and it paid off. They also educated themselves on options (way more than I know....) and used that to their advantage to provide excised returns. It doesn't always work out, but I can't say it's totally "luck." It's not totally "skill" either. ;) It's taking more risk and that risk paying off. It's like if somebody is 100% SCV -- that's additional risk and may pay off or not....But being in on one high-flying stock (or a few tech high-flyers) brings that to the extreme. They rode the huge tech boom. ^I will admit to being a bit jeal...

Spain taxes earned income for someone on Spanish soil. There is currently a digital nomad visa legislation in the Spanish Congress, which might reduce the tax burden, but it has not passed. Having said that, many, many people do what you are proposing (without paying Spanish taxes), so risk is low for a few weeks. It is not that diifferent than someone on an ordinary business trip (who would not pay Spanish taxes). Aribnb owners are used to reassuring renters that wifi is sufficient for work purposes.

As others mentioned, my greater concern would be with your employer. Some are cool with it, others not. In addition to the tax complications, the fiirm might be worried about cybersecurity matters (depending on industry).

I wouldn't tip for that service. Tipping getting out of hand in US.

Great timing given where TSLA is now going! Congrats.

For the record, I still think TSLA is badly overvalued. I like the comany but would not consider buying until it is under 100.

Yes, I did same. USAA has become a pretty awful bank and I just keep the account open to fund my insurance policy.

I've heard some employers are reluctant due to payroll issues. It varies by country, but you might have to pay taxes/social security/etc in your country of residence. There's also the question whether your health insurance covers you over there.

I use 4% as a general guideline of what we can spend, but don't track with any precision.

Dave Ramsey recommends stock funds that earn him, not you, money. He hates the Boglehead style of investing and considers it socialism. Thus it makes no sense to merge two polar opposite approaches.

Silicon Valley, Manhattan and London are not US/UK but global labor markets. They attract ambitious workers from all over the world and are not representative of the rest of the US. However, many posters on this board work in those areas.

In order to compare US/UK to Europe, you have to pick somewhwere in US/UK outside of those 3 areas.

I get that OP made a great call getting into Tesla stock when he did. Incredible foresight that earned him millions. No argument. However, OP's insistence that Tesla is currently undervalued baffles me. Tesla is by far the world's largest car company by market cap, nearly triple the market cap of no. 2 Toyota. 10x the market cap of Ford. However, in the recent quarter, Toyota sold 2.62 million vehicles, 7.6x as many as Tesla's 344,000. Granted, Tesla earns 8x more per car sold than Toyota. However, can Tesla really maintain those disproporrtinately ovresized margins as other companies move into the EV space? In this sense, Tesla might still be a bit overvalued, although time will tell. As already the 6th largest US company by market cap, ho...

Careful not to mistake luck for skill.

TSLA has been a rollercoaster and you mostly got the best of it. Slightly different timing and you'd be in a very different place.

If you believe fervently, religiously, in a single company, I could see putting up to 10% of a portfolio in that company. More than that, you're playing the slots.

I actually wonder how you can do such a bad job on a website as Vanguard. Anyway, with Fidelity and Schwab, no one needs to put up with that.

Ha ha, of course not

nalor511 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:45 pm

William Million wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:20 pm I'd probably go with VUSB Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF at 4.5%. More flexibility.

Will go down in price when rates rise, while a bond or CD held to maturity will not (as long as you hold to maturity)

True, but the 52 week fluctuation (high to low) is only 2.65%, pretty low in a year when bond prices plunged. I can live with that risk.

I'd probably go with VUSB Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF at 4.5%. More flexibility.

After the collapse of FTX - an exposed wizard behind the curtain of a moment - is there any chance Bitcoin won't plunge downward?

Obviously, this would be more gamble rather investment, but does anyone think bitcoin won't be worth a fraction of its current value in the future? I'm not enough of a gambler to go for it but was curious if any Bogleheads are bying put options on bitcoin.

Why just make a lower offer?

[An off-topic comment was removed. Speculation concerning potential fixes or societal changes that may impact current projections concerning social security trust funds violate forum policy prohibiting political issues and/or are off-topic. Replies should respond to OP’s specific questions on how OP and others should plan in light of current law, regulations, and projections - Moderator ClaycordJCA].

Local Marriott Bonvoy, IHG, Hyatt property with negotiated monthly rate. If it nets you bonus points/high status with a hotel chain, then you have future vacation stays paid. I've been traveling around the US for a few months on accrued hotel points.

If you can work remotely, then you might even consider doing something exciting, like staying several months in Mexico City or Europe or wherever you can stay cheaper and better than in the US.

At 25, I'd be 100% stocks and rooting for a prolonged bear market.

My son did well with online for the 1st two years, then got into a top 40 college for the final 2. Saved a lot of money.

However, my preference would be for in-person community college, if that's an option.

Late2Brake wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 11:58 am Personally I think having children made my life more rewarding, but I just cant see how anyone would say it's not expensive to do so.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... alculator/

Congrats on your journey OP, you have done most of the things I would have done differently looking back.

Worst financial decision most of us make!

FIRWYW wrote: ↑Sat Oct 29, 2022 3:34 pm I appreciate the comment though from original OP because I think there are some who it definitely applies to. I see people here saving like me but starting at 25. That basically is like me working to 65 if they retire early. More tax diversification on the contribution years could be wise for them IF they want to live it up OR leave bigger inheritance.

Yes, that's exactly my scenario.

Many Bogleheads invest well during their working lives and enjoy higher incomes in retirement (with a 4% SWR) than when they worked (and saved). That has been my case. Problem now is I'm faced with mandatory 401k withdrawals at my personal income tax rate (federal and state). If these investments were non-tax deferred investments, I'd pay a much lower tax rate upon withdrrawal and not have the government dictating to me how to take in distributions. I liked deferring taxes when I worked, but now I realize I'm paying a higher tax on gains for that deferral. I believe I should have just invested enough to gain the company match - then put the rest into regular investments ot Roth-type vehicles. I mention that as my mistake might be of use wor...

People who expected to do well buyng TIPS in negative real rates were living in fantasy land. Few investments can one buy low/sell high as transparently as TIPS. Omg. Short-term TIPS worked out fine at negative real rates... They did. Go look. They totally did. You know why? Because we had unexpected inflation. You know what's not factored into negative real expected rates? Unexpected inflation. Which is what short-term TIPS are for. I feel like I'm losing my mind, but at the same time, I know it's not me. Come on.... It's good to have insurance when disaster (inflation in this case) strikes. However, if you bought at negative rates, you arguably overpaid for that insurance policy. Since most investments do badly in a falling equity/rising...

You need more interests/activities/hobbies/etc. When you're 80, you're not going to care if you were worth 1 or 8 million. You're going to care about what you experienced in life.

People who expected to do well buyng TIPS in negative real rates were living in fantasy land. Few investments can one buy low/sell high as transparently as TIPS.

I collect hotel points when on business travel, then use the points/benefits for personal travel. Currently staying in an upgraded suite in a 5-star hotel in a major city on points. Hotel also comps me bfast.

Owners of companies expect to get paid from profits. They get paid through dividends.

PE10 is a valuation metric (alongside many other valuation metrics). PE10 (and Schiller) have forecast bear markets at the beginning of bull markets.

A better (yet still imperfect) valuation metric are dividends - generally (but not always) better to invest when yields across the broad market are higher. However, even if dividend yield is a better predictor than PE10, I wouldn't base an investment strategy on it.

I find these type of threads quite comical. Paying for airfare,lodging and meals all to get lower cost dental treatment than found in the US. The math just doesn’t add up. Let alone the liability issue if there are post op problems All I ever keep reading in many posts is BHer’s with investment portfolios valued 2M and up. What gives? In my case, I travel abraod every year anyway, so I combine it with dental treatment. In general, a characteristic of Bogleheads is thrift, not overpaying (even if you can afford to overpay) for mediocre service. I've had dental care in about eight different countries over the years. Quality of US dental care would be at the bottom. What parameters did you use to determine quality? And how did you choose whic...

I find these type of threads quite comical. Paying for airfare,lodging and meals all to get lower cost dental treatment than found in the US. The math just doesn’t add up. Let alone the liability issue if there are post op problems All I ever keep reading in many posts is BHer’s with investment portfolios valued 2M and up. What gives? In my case, I travel abraod every year anyway, so I combine it with dental treatment. In general, a characteristic of Bogleheads is thrift, not overpaying (even if you can afford to overpay) for mediocre service. I've had dental care in about eight different countries over the years. Quality of US dental care would be at the bottom. What parameters did you use to determine quality? And how did you choose whic...

afr wrote: ↑Fri Oct 21, 2022 10:39 am I find these type of threads quite comical. Paying for airfare,lodging and meals all to get lower cost dental treatment than found in the US. The math just doesn’t add up. Let alone the liability issue if there are post op problems All I ever keep reading in many posts is BHer’s with investment portfolios valued 2M and up. What gives?

In my case, I travel abraod every year anyway, so I combine it with dental treatment.

In general, a characteristic of Bogleheads is thrift, not overpaying (even if you can afford to overpay) for mediocre service. I've had dental care in about eight different countries over the years. Quality of US dental care would be at the bottom.

Interesting thread. I've largely given up on US dentists (except for emergency stuff) becasue I can't stand price negotiations. In Mexico City, I pay $45 cleaning, $15 xrays for excellent dentist. Last month my wife's lower retainer broke. We went to a dental office in Dallas. Took dentist 8 minutes to resolve issue. We were shocked when billing person wanted to charge us $300. We politely mentioned that it was a bit high. She dropped immediately to $220. Dentist heard from his room that we were a bit surprised (though we were about a pay the $220 - what can you do?), came out and told the billing person that $140 was suficient for that service. Honestly, US dental care just too sleazy for me. I don't want to haggle over medical care as if ...