Search found 551 matches

by William Million
Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Donate to homeless?
Replies: 84
Views: 3852

Re: Donate to homeless?

A relative of mine suffered with drug addiction. He had been trying to get off drugs, then met the wrong friends one night and they panhandled for "food," using the money for cheap drugs. Drugs were bad and he died that night of overdose. Every case is different, but I wish he had not received money...
by William Million
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for a nice travel watch... recommendations?
Replies: 41
Views: 2349

Re: Looking for a nice travel watch... recommendations?

https://www.amazon.com/CUCOL-Watches-Cowhide-Leather-Groomsmen/dp/B01EABYFN2/ref=mp_s_a_1_13?ie=UTF8&qid=1544012330&sr=8-13&pi=AC_SX236_SY340_FMwebp_QL65&keywords=wooden+mens+watch This is an unconventional choice. My travel watch, and it gets compliments. On a recent trip, a woman in Vermont came t...
by William Million
Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to invest $100k for HSBC premier account?
Replies: 13
Views: 1135

Re: Best way to invest $100k for HSBC premier account?

Sounds like $50/month versus CD interests 1-1.5% lower than the market are about a wash. So it might not matter what you do. I use Schwab ATM card for no fees when withdrawing $ from foreign ATMs. There are other ways to transfer $ between dollar and euro accounts. However, you might get more out of...
by William Million
Wed Nov 21, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Now the Time for TIPS Fund VIPSX?
Replies: 12
Views: 1210

Re: Now the Time for TIPS Fund VIPSX?

So it looks like short term treasury might have slightly higher interest rate, but TIPS provides inflation protection? That's not the point. The point is to compare, see what the break-even inflation rate is, and decide which you prefer. If a 1-year TIPS has a real yield of 1% and a 1-year treasury...
by William Million
Wed Nov 21, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8547
Views: 1672496

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

CUlater I'm 58 and lost about 154K on paper and not worried at all because my cost basis is approx 400k and I am about 1.4 million ahead, been through 1987, 2000, and 2008 crash and love crashes. I'm a market timer and made money all times afterwards also here is a good article from Christine Benz ...
by William Million
Wed Nov 21, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Now the Time for TIPS Fund VIPSX?
Replies: 12
Views: 1210

Re: Now the Time for TIPS Fund VIPSX?

So it looks like short term treasury might have slightly higher interest rate, but TIPS provides inflation protection?
by William Million
Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Now the Time for TIPS Fund VIPSX?
Replies: 12
Views: 1210

Re: Now the Time for TIPS Fund VIPSX?

Thanks , I didn't realize the actual SEC yield was much. However, assuming there will be inflation, isn't it fair to assume an interest rate over 3%?
by William Million
Wed Nov 21, 2018 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Now the Time for TIPS Fund VIPSX?
Replies: 12
Views: 1210

Now the Time for TIPS Fund VIPSX?

It's been an awful 5 years for TIPS holders. However, VIPSX now yields 3.24%. I find that odd since the 30 year TIPS bought outright seems to be 1.28%.

So maybe fund is a good deal if you get 3.28% and some inflation protection.
by William Million
Mon Nov 19, 2018 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: anyone buying individual stocks or sector ETF's?
Replies: 13
Views: 1148

Re: anyone buying individual stocks or sector ETF's?

I engage in select market timing and stock picking. For instance, I'm buying foreign rather than US stocks (due to more attractive valuations), and I'll occasionally invest in a company that I believe will flourish over the next decade (such as a medical technology company). However, mostly I'm in i...
by William Million
Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Amazon says TurboTax 2018 will be released November 12
Replies: 85
Views: 9873

Re: Amazon says TurboTax 2018 will be released November 12

love freetaxusa. Worked better for me than Turbotax.
by William Million
Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 171
Views: 9665

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

The fact that US has gotten ahead of international is called a "buying opportunity." You can now get international on sale before reversion to the mean. However, might take one year, might take 10.
by William Million
Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If the market is this high, does it make sense to invest a large sum of money?
Replies: 38
Views: 3381

Re: If the market is this high, does it make sense to invest a large sum of money?

While it makes most sense to invest it in one lump sum (given your young age), if it makes you feel better divide up and invest over 18 months. Important is to invest.
by William Million
Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Flagship Services Include Free Annual Tuneup. Q.’s to Ask?
Replies: 14
Views: 1670

Re: Flagship Services Include Free Annual Tuneup. Q.’s to Ask?

You might know more than the person advising you. Good work.
by William Million
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moneytalk with Bob Brinker coming to an end
Replies: 70
Views: 11393

Re: Moneytalk with Bob Brinker coming to an end

When Terry Savage filled in, she was quite good. I actually emailed her a question after a show (she encouraged it), and her advice made a big difference in my wealth accumulation.
by William Million
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5865

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

I've "won" the game, but I never go below 40% stocks. Any lower, you take on too much inflation risks and other risks, such as unexpected high-cost needs. (I'm currently 44% and would go as high as 60% after a bear market.)
by William Million
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
Replies: 318
Views: 21696

Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

No point debating the pros and cons of Tesla for OP. Point is he likes it. However, it's really $70k for an unnecessary toy, and a toy that might generate additional unwelcome expenses. If you had $10 million, then why not? But in your case, I don't recommend it. Commit $5,000 per year to, every now...
by William Million
Fri Mar 25, 2016 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Housing Prices Trajectory in the Bay Area?
Replies: 77
Views: 10251

Re: Thoughts on Housing Prices Trajectory in the Bay Area?

No one knows. I'm a Bay Area native, but would not buy there. I love The City but believe some around there overrate it a bit, maybe because they are not that familiar with other areas. It's the best US city, on the whole, but traffic is horrible, taxes high and good skiing rather far away. Parts of...
by William Million
Fri Mar 25, 2016 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-based market timing with PE10 can improve returns?
Replies: 696
Views: 119864

Re: Valuation-based market timing with PE10 can improve returns?

Someone might make good money in a PE10 contrarian fund.
by William Million
Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1 Million+ Nest Egg From Less Than $100k Yearly Income
Replies: 45
Views: 9848

Re: $1 Million+ Nest Egg From Less Than $100k Yearly Income

Just 1 marriage, modest housing costs, committed to saving, never took out a car loan . . . .
by William Million
Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What steps to take to decrease likelihood of credit card fraud
Replies: 31
Views: 2805

Re: What steps to take to decrease likelihood of credit card fraud

I've had several breaches. For instance, it happened in London. I believe it was a small shop on Bond St where I bought an umbrella. Immediately, there were charges for 2 first class tickets from London to Lagos. I notified the issuing bank, and that was that. Had the British police been interested ...
by William Million
Sat Mar 19, 2016 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Capital Gains on Stock Sale
Replies: 8
Views: 711

Estimating Capital Gains on Stock Sale

Best I can do is estimate sale of old stock somewhere between a 95% gain and 65% gain. My sense is IRS is unlikely to fight me if I'm already paying tax on a 65% gain. Is that reasonable assumption?
by William Million
Fri Mar 18, 2016 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I proactively freeze my credit?
Replies: 18
Views: 1897

Re: Should I proactively freeze my credit?

My wife did after victim of phishing scam. Actually pretty easy to manage.
by William Million
Sun Mar 13, 2016 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-based market timing with PE10 can improve returns?
Replies: 696
Views: 119864

Re: Valuation-based market timing with PE10 can improve returns?

Has the PE10 crowd thrown in the towel yet? Unlikely. What's happened recently that should cause them to do so? Failing, due to PE10 adherence, to exploit the bull market run since this thread started in 2011 would do it for me. CAPE was about 23 at that time, indicating an over-valued market. Anyo...
by William Million
Sun Mar 13, 2016 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are CDs Becoming A Worse Investment?
Replies: 40
Views: 6184

Are CDs Becoming A Worse Investment?

CD rates are not really pushing much beyond 2.25%, even for longer terms/higher amounts. Meanwhile, Short-Term Bond Admiral Shares (VBIRX) at 2.7 year duration is up to 1.29% and Short-Term Corporate Bond Index Admiral Shares (VSCSX) also at 2.7 year duration is up to 2.31%. On the tax-exempt side, ...
by William Million
Fri Mar 04, 2016 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone know why Prime money market rate going up?
Replies: 3
Views: 680

Anyone know why Prime money market rate going up?

I see that Prime Money Market is now up to .4%, after many years of nearly 0%. I also recall many years ago Prime Money Market competed with short-term CDs. Any one understand why it's up, and is this likely to persist? I note tax-exempt still has nearly no interest at .01%, making it a no-brainer w...
by William Million
Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most Important Financial Decision: Where to Live?
Replies: 38
Views: 4716

Re: Most Important Financial Decision: Where to Live?

I read her post as well as the SFGate article. It seems as if she expected (and perhaps planned) for things to go down like they did. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole thing was a ploy to become 'internet famous'. Now she's getting 'paid' via GoFundMe, etc. much more than minimum wage for doing ...
by William Million
Mon Feb 22, 2016 6:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most Important Financial Decision: Where to Live?
Replies: 38
Views: 4716

Most Important Financial Decision: Where to Live?

This open letter from an unhappy young Yelp employee to her boss (leading anticlimactically to her dismissal) has caused a stir in the San Francisco Bay Area: https://medium.com/@taliajane/an-open-letter-to-my-ceo-fb73df021e7a#.qqddypn1k Also, heavily discussed in the local paper (http://www.sfgate....
by William Million
Sun Feb 21, 2016 4:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 157
Views: 21955

Re: Disappearing premiums!

A tilt that still hasn't paid off in over a decade is not worth it for the vast majority of investors. I don't need a tilt that pays off 5 years after I pass away.
by William Million
Sun Feb 21, 2016 2:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme saving with low returns - not worth it?
Replies: 71
Views: 10495

Re: Extreme saving with low returns - not worth it?

Bogleheads are overly cautious, and many believe in lower returns going forward. I see no clear evidence for lower returns. I don't follow projections that closely, but I was basing it off here - https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Historical_and_expected_returns Based on those, if I have a balanced po...
by William Million
Sat Feb 20, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme saving with low returns - not worth it?
Replies: 71
Views: 10495

Re: Extreme saving with low returns - not worth it?

Bogleheads are overly cautious, and many believe in lower returns going forward. I see no clear evidence for lower returns.
by William Million
Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Decision! was: Can I retire in 2017?
Replies: 53
Views: 9593

Re: Can I retire in 2017?

Would the move to a retiree complex increase your monthly rent?
by William Million
Sat Feb 13, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Delta lost my luggage...
Replies: 29
Views: 4397

Re: Delta lost my luggage...

Your credit card might include some lost luggage protection. My main card (Citi Prestige Mastercard) covers up to $3,000/person.
by William Million
Sat Feb 13, 2016 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."
Replies: 56
Views: 10326

Re: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."

Keep in mind that Yellen was speaking somewhat theoretically about negative rates in the US, stressing that they are not currently on the table.

In fact, the Fed has begun to raise rates. I don't see any reason that won't continue, though it might be a super-slow process.
by William Million
Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Purchasing Business Class Tickets
Replies: 37
Views: 4748

Re: Purchasing Business Class Tickets

As a happy medium, I'd recommend flying Norwegian Air Shuttle in Premium Cabin from NYC to Madrid. Should be about $1,000 each way, plus the flight/stopover in NYC.

And congratulations.
by William Million
Sun Feb 07, 2016 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 292
Views: 56915

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Granted, but Taiwan and mainland does get you to 43%. I'd like to invest in an ex-Mainland/Taiwan developing markets index. iShares has Emerging Markets Horizon ETF: "Exposure to large- and mid-cap stocks in the smallest emerging market countries" https://www.ishares.com/us/products/270316/ishares-...
by William Million
Sun Feb 07, 2016 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years
Replies: 18
Views: 3181

Re: Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years

joebh wrote:
William Million wrote:I agree that we are in a long-term bull market.
because... ?
I believe technology gains and globalization will cause significant productivity gains, not yet reflected in earnings.
by William Million
Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 292
Views: 56915

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Problem is emerging market funds are now mostly China funds. You don't get much diversity. I think this overstates it a little. China will continue to have a big effect on the EM indices, but it's really not that much greater than the effect Japan has on developed indices (~23% right now). VEMAX Co...
by William Million
Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years
Replies: 18
Views: 3181

Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years

Not that it impacts my allocation, which is relatively conservative (due to proximity of retirement), but I tend to agree that we are in a long-term bull market. I know it's not a common view among many Bogleheads (or PE10 watchers), who expect lower than average returns over the next decade or so. ...
by William Million
Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle vs. Vanguard on International Funds
Replies: 27
Views: 5150

Re: Bogle vs. Vanguard on International Funds

FTSE All World Ex-US allows us to invest in the "world" with a modest .29 expense ratio and great diversification. Can't see any reason not to do so, especially now when it's selling at a bargain to the US.

I don't expect the US to underperform the world. However, you never know.
by William Million
Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Here We Go Again: SWR 2.5% or 5.5%?
Replies: 111
Views: 13867

Re: Here We Go Again: SWR 2.5% or 5.5%?

Sub-3% SWR is a really odd Boglehead quirk. 4% will certainly work well for most.
by William Million
Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?
Replies: 31
Views: 3574

Re: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?

I suppose by re-balancing you get a buying opportunity since you are, by definition, buying shares lower than when you previously balanced.
by William Million
Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I have no more money to invest
Replies: 76
Views: 8731

Re: I have no more money to invest

Until 40, I was 90 percent stocks. Now at 56, I am about 40 percent and rebalancing. If the market really fell, I would go to a higher stock allocation.
by William Million
Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 292
Views: 56915

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Problem is emerging market funds are now mostly China funds. You don't get much diversity.
by William Million
Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 11930

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

Larry-

I understand you believe adding a small value tilt enables an investor to lower stock allocation. However, why is it desirable to do so? Why is it better to be 50/50 with a s/v tilt than 60/40 without the tilt?
by William Million
Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a growth tilt, advice?
Replies: 13
Views: 1337

Re: Considering a growth tilt, advice?

Evidence supports a long-term tilt toward small and value, not growth, though it sometimes takes 15-20 years for the value premium to kick in.
by William Million
Sat Jan 09, 2016 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 11930

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

On the other hand, now is an opportune time for someone who believes in SV premium to jump in. In the past, I often pointed out that although I actually believe in the SV premium, it is not right for the vast majority of investors. Some will give up after 5 years of under-performance, some after 10 ...
by William Million
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?
Replies: 92
Views: 9577

Re: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?

It seems many Bogleheads have recently dismissed age-in-bonds as overly conservative. Some have, arguably, found inventive ways to justify over-weighting stocks, such as counting pension/social security/house/potential inheritance as part of the bond allocation. As an age-in-bonds guy who has passe...
by William Million
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should SS Affect Asset Allocation Strategy for Me?
Replies: 21
Views: 1770

Re: Should SS Affect Asset Allocation Strategy for Me?

I'm probably in the minority on this board but would not use social security in asset allocations.
by William Million
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?
Replies: 92
Views: 9577

I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?

It seems many Bogleheads have recently dismissed age-in-bonds as overly conservative. Some have, arguably, found inventive ways to justify over-weighting stocks, such as counting pension/social security/house/potential inheritance as part of the bond allocation. As an age-in-bonds guy who has passed...