Search found 402 matches

by JustinR
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 40
Views: 2510

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

Everyone right now seems to think that a crash is imminent. AAII (thanks Arctic) is neutral to bullish now. Members don't seem to expect an imminent crash. http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey Hmmmm... Maybe that means that a crash IS imminent then? Someone should do a study of how that survey did t...
by JustinR
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 40
Views: 2510

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

Everyone right now seems to think that a crash is imminent. AAII (thanks Arctic) is neutral to bullish now. Members don't seem to expect an imminent crash. http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey Hmmmm... Maybe that means that a crash IS imminent then? Someone should do a study of how that survey did t...
by JustinR
Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 40
Views: 2510

Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

Everyone right now seems to think that a crash is imminent. Which makes me wonder if the exact opposite is true.

Has the public ever been right about anything market timing related?

Is "think the opposite of what everyone else thinks the market's headed" a viable strategy?
by JustinR
Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is HSA Bank + TD Ameritrade still the best HSA choice?
Replies: 23
Views: 1858

Re: Is HSA Bank + TD Ameritrade still the best HSA choice?

Lively+TDA likely the best choice if you are investing every dollar long-term. There is a great deal of whining about the commission free ETF changes, but that there are still good some very good options in the new commission free list. +1 I just moved my employer-sponsored HSA to Lively+TD Ameritr...
by JustinR
Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is HSA Bank + TD Ameritrade still the best HSA choice?
Replies: 23
Views: 1858

Re: Is HSA Bank + TD Ameritrade still the best HSA choice?

tigermilk wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:22 am
Do you not have a no fee option? I've got HSA Bank and TDA, and if my HSA Bank balance is $5k or higher, there are no monthly fees.
I don't think it's worth saving $5.50 a month to park $5,000 instead of investing it, right?
by JustinR
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is HSA Bank + TD Ameritrade still the best HSA choice?
Replies: 23
Views: 1858

Re: Is HSA Bank + TD Ameritrade still the best HSA choice?

Lively+TDA likely the best choice if you are investing every dollar long-term. There is a great deal of whining about the commission free ETF changes, but that there are still good some very good options in the new commission free list. According to the site , there's only a $2.50 to invest and tha...
by JustinR
Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is HSA Bank + TD Ameritrade still the best HSA choice?
Replies: 23
Views: 1858

Is HSA Bank + TD Ameritrade still the best HSA choice?

With HSA Bank, there are the following monthly fees: $3.00 HSA service fee $2.50 investment service fee TDAmeritrade offers some commission-free ETFs. So after paying the $5.50/mo, you can trade as much as you want with no additional fees. Now that they've removed all the Vanguard funds from the com...
by JustinR
Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does bond length matter for investing in bond funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 1620

Re: Does bond length matter for investing in bond funds?

Johm221122 wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:36 pm
JustinR
If interest rates go up, will the long term bonds go negative?
Depends on how much rates go up,dividend(interest) may keep it from going negative
Then it doesn't seem like there's any downside to going the higher yield long term bonds?
by JustinR
Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does bond length matter for investing in bond funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 1620

Re: Does bond length matter for investing in bond funds?

Zithron wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:41 pm
Sounds like you're using bond funds in place of equities to avoid losing gains to taxes. So why not do a mix of the two, similar what you'd do with equities and lower risk bonds?
Nope. This is part of my bond allocation.

It's just depressing to see it making 0.5% more than my savings account.
by JustinR
Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does bond length matter for investing in bond funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 1620

Re: Does bond length matter for investing in bond funds?

Thank you for posting this thread, though I know it has been discussed many times. I also live in California and share the overall "meh" feeling about investing my HSA in an investment that bears 1.7% interest (that's the current SEC Yield for ITE, the intermediate Treasury ETF). And yet, a couple ...
by JustinR
Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does bond length matter for investing in bond funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 1620

Does bond length matter for investing in bond funds?

HSAs are not recognized in CA. So in my HSA, I invest in government bonds that have minimal state taxes. I've been investing in VGIT (Vanguard Intermediate-Term Government Bond ETF). TDAmeritrade is going to start charging commissions for VG ETFs , so I'm looking for a substitute. I'm currently comp...
by JustinR
Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 333
Views: 17816

Re: TD Ameritrade Drops Vanguard From Revamped Commission-Free ETF Lineup TD Ameritrade will nearly triple its overall c

Probably ITE (SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate Term Treasury ETF) at 10 bp. It's a 1-10 year treasury fund rather than a 3-10, but it's similar to VGIT. Probably ITE (SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate Term Treasury ETF) at 10 bp. It's a 1-10 year treasury fund rather than a 3-10, but it's si...
by JustinR
Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 333
Views: 17816

Re: TD Ameritrade Drops Vanguard From Revamped Commission-Free ETF Lineup TD Ameritrade will nearly triple its overall c

Press release and full list of ETFs: https://s1.q4cdn.com/959385532/files/doc_downloads/Expanded-Commission-Free-ETF-Program.pdf What's the best equivalent for VGIT ? I have that in my HSA so that I have to pay minimal state taxes, since CA doesn't recognize HSAs. Looking for a commission-free bond...
by JustinR
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing - Personal Philosophies
Replies: 43
Views: 3609

Re: Rebalancing - Personal Philosophies

I rebalance with new money.

So everytime I invest, which can vary from weeks to months apart. Otherwise I'd do it once a year.
by JustinR
Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 219
Views: 40016

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

All due respect and reverence for Jack Bogle's advice does not change the fact that on this one topic, he represents a relatively isolated perspective. Iceport: He may "represent a relatively isolated perspective " but since 1993 when he first advocated "20% or less in international stocks" -- he h...
by JustinR
Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do retiree BHs actually run down their portfolios?
Replies: 73
Views: 8234

Re: Do retiree BHs actually run down their portfolios?

I am a retiree, genetically programmed to be a frugal spender and a BH. I read about all these Withdrawal Rates, etc. But, frankly, do real-life BH retirees ever have declining portfolios? Let's face it, any market decline will be followed up immediately by a tightening up of the WR. Even an annual...
by JustinR
Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?
Replies: 38
Views: 4207

Re: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?

i saw a thread in which the SWR was decried by people here, because it doesnt consider inflation. I think that there are contradictory answers to the safe SWR. is it inflation indexed? Indexed to healthcare costs? Not indexed? Doesnt make sense, so i ignore that advice. The 4% rule is adjusted for ...
by JustinR
Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1539
Views: 272406

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Why doesn't Vanguard's personal performance page give you a return percentage for YTD? Selecting any time period other than "Since inception" removes the Rate of Return %. Click on year to date. Then just divide "investment returns" by "beginning balance". If you are making regular monthly withdraw...
by JustinR
Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 36258

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Thanks for the reply. I guess I don't understand what portion is taken from the stable income versus the VPW. The wiki says your "base income" should come from the stable portion, which is the TIPS/CD ladder or an annuity. But it doesn't say what "base" means...is that the total of your required sp...
by JustinR
Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 36258

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Justin, So VPW is not really viable for retirees in their 30s like you said, correct? You should download the spreadsheet and look. The second thing it does it ask you how you are when you are retire. By default it uses 65 but you can set it to 50 or even 15 if you want. VPW has nothing that inhere...
by JustinR
Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1539
Views: 272406

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Why doesn't Vanguard's personal performance page give you a return percentage for YTD?

Selecting any time period other than "Since inception" removes the Rate of Return %.
by JustinR
Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 36258

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

So VPW is not really viable for retirees in their 30s like you said, correct? You should download the spreadsheet and look. The second thing it does it ask you how you are when you are retire. By default it uses 65 but you can set it to 50 or even 15 if you want. VPW has nothing that inherently pre...
by JustinR
Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 36258

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Such a plan can use our Wiki's Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW) method, a withdrawal method which adapts to the retiree's retirement horizon, asset allocation, and portfolio returns during retirement. It combines the best ideas of the constant-dollar, constant-percentage, and 1/N withdrawal met...
by JustinR
Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 36258

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Can someone explain the bond/TIPS ladder? How is that income for retirement? From what I'm reading you reinvest the principal, No, you spend the principal. Each year, one bond or TIPS matures. Its value is enough to cover that year's expenses, or only your "floor" expenses if that's how you designe...
by JustinR
Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you reinvest your dividends/capital gains?
Replies: 76
Views: 9176

Re: Do you reinvest your dividends/capital gains?

Retirement accounts: reinvest

Taxable: cash the check, invest to rebalance. This lets you rebalance in your taxable without selling.
by JustinR
Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 36258

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Can someone explain the bond/TIPS ladder?

How is that income for retirement? From what I'm reading you reinvest the principal, so how does that fund your retirement? You live off the 2-4% yield?
by JustinR
Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Upcoming 2017 changes to Vanguard REIT fund(s)
Replies: 23
Views: 4449

Re: Upcoming 2017 changes to Vanguard REIT fund(s)

Is this a positive or negative?

From reading the materials it sounds good? But that's because the board supports it and wants us to vote Yes.

It seems good right? More diversification in a limited space?
by JustinR
Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 360
Views: 33196

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

I'll save you 7 pages of reading: OP: "Based on nothing but my gut feeling, I assert that people with 80% stocks are just as likely to panic sell in a downturn as someone at 100%. So there's no reason to be 80/20. Might as well be 100/0 like me." Someone: "Not necessarily...having a $200k bond safet...
by JustinR
Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What counts as income? (planning retirement withdrawal strategy)
Replies: 13
Views: 1254

Re: What counts as income? (planning retirement withdrawal strategy)

Related question I've never really thought about before, and will ask here and then go look it up later (if no one beats me to it)... How are after-tax IRA/401k --> Roth conversions (original contributions and earnings) treated with respect to penalties? I would think all the rules are the same. On...
by JustinR
Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What counts as income? (planning retirement withdrawal strategy)
Replies: 13
Views: 1254

Re: What counts as income? (planning retirement withdrawal strategy)

"Roth IRA earnings: Depends on age" What does this mean? Do earnings not count as income after 60? Withdrawals of earnings in a Roth IRA are tax free if the withdrawals are "qualified". In general after age 59.5 withdrawals of earnings are tax free, yes. Under most circumstances that don't involve ...
by JustinR
Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What counts as income? (planning retirement withdrawal strategy)
Replies: 13
Views: 1254

Re: What counts as income? (planning retirement withdrawal strategy)

AND they don't count as income? That's what I'm trying to figure out. Define "income". Are Roth withdrawals taxable income? (in general) no. Are Roth withdrawals 'income' because you can spend the money? Yes. 'Income' can have different meanings in different situations. What kind of income are you ...
by JustinR
Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What counts as income? (planning retirement withdrawal strategy)
Replies: 13
Views: 1254

Re: What counts as income? (planning retirement withdrawal strategy)

"Roth IRA earnings: Depends on age" What does this mean? Do earnings not count as income after 60? Withdrawals of earnings in a Roth IRA are tax free if the withdrawals are "qualified". In general after age 59.5 withdrawals of earnings are tax free, yes. Under most circumstances that don't involve ...
by JustinR
Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What counts as income? (planning retirement withdrawal strategy)
Replies: 13
Views: 1254

Re: What counts as income? (planning retirement withdrawal strategy)

Taxable principal: No Taxable earnings: Yes Roth IRA principal: Usually not, unless it is from a tIRA conversion done less than 5 years ago. Roth IRA earnings: Depends on age Traditional IRA: Yes Traditional IRA Required Minimum Distributions: Yes 401K: Yes 401K Required Minimum Distributions: Yes ...
by JustinR
Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What counts as income? (planning retirement withdrawal strategy)
Replies: 13
Views: 1254

What counts as income? (planning retirement withdrawal strategy)

It's confusing which things count as income. Some things are not counted as income at all. Other things are subject to 0% tax...but count as income (such as capital gains in lower tax brackets). Here's a list of different types of withdrawals, please tell me if it counts as income or not, and if the...
by JustinR
Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does IRA recharacterization work if you switch funds while converting?
Replies: 1
Views: 194

How does IRA recharacterization work if you switch funds while converting?

From what I understand, if during the conversion you're just buying the same fund, it's super simple since it's just like transferring the same shares from one account to another. If you recharacterize, I assume the fund just gets transferred back into the first account as is? But what if during the...
by JustinR
Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value has had higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk
Replies: 49
Views: 4396

Re: Small-Cap Value has had higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk

Is there something inherently better about TSM that I should keep my stocks in there and not move them to SCV? Currently I'm half TSM and half SCV for my domestic allocation. Hey Justin. I'm glad to see somebody making such good use of the Simba spreadsheet, this is cool. Your observations about th...
by JustinR
Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value has had higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk
Replies: 49
Views: 4396

Re: Small-Cap Value has higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk

Over the past 3,5,10, and 15 year period(s) DFSVX which is typically pointed to as the premier 'Small-Cap Value' fund has had a lower Sharpe Ratio indicating higher risk and lower risk-adjusted returns using the traditional measurements http://i.imgs.fyi/img/19lg.jpg The whole idea of factor invest...
by JustinR
Sun Aug 27, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value has had higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk
Replies: 49
Views: 4396

Re: Small-Cap Value has higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk

Over the past 3,5,10, and 15 year period(s) DFSVX which is typically pointed to as the premier 'Small-Cap Value' fund has had a lower Sharpe Ratio indicating higher risk and lower risk-adjusted returns using the traditional measurements http://i.imgs.fyi/img/19lg.jpg The whole idea of factor invest...
by JustinR
Sun Aug 27, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value has had higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk
Replies: 49
Views: 4396

Re: Small-Cap Value has higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk

I have a very noobie question, what are the best metrics you use or anybody in general should use to measure downside risk or risk in general ? A lot of this seems to be going over my head Look up Sortino Ratio: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sortinoratio.asp The Sortino ratio is a useful way ...
by JustinR
Sun Aug 27, 2017 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value has had higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk
Replies: 49
Views: 4396

Re: Small-Cap Value has higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk

As a massive tilter personally (all Value, most small value including internationally), I completely disagree with you re: downside. Also 1970-2016 gives you all theee massive Small Value boosts. At a given equity percentage, Small Value is between 1/3 and 1/2 again as volatile as standard stocks. ...
by JustinR
Sat Aug 26, 2017 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value has had higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk
Replies: 49
Views: 4396

Small-Cap Value has had higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk

I apologize that I made a similar thread about Mid-Cap Value a few hours ago, but I just backtested Small-Cap and was wondering if people had opinions on going 100% SCV instead of TSM. Using Simba's backtesting spreadsheet , I plugged in 80%TSM vs 80%SCV (with the rest in Total Bond). You can downlo...
by JustinR
Sat Aug 26, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switching 100% to Mid-Cap Value? It consistently beats Total Stock Market with lower risk
Replies: 10
Views: 1875

Switching 100% to Mid-Cap Value? It consistently beats Total Stock Market with lower risk

First, please read these two articles: Mid-Cap Value Outperformance: Consistently Beating the S&P 500 6 Reasons The Mid-Cap Value Index is Constructed to Outperform Summary: Mid-Cap Value has higher returns and lower risk than the S&P 500. The reason for the outperformance is built in due to how mid...
by JustinR
Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: California - clarification on taxes
Replies: 36
Views: 2633

Re: California - clarification on taxes

Edit: So if you itemize you can subtract 28% * 9.3% = 2.6%, which means your tax is 43.3%. The itemize deduction is only worth it's benefit above the "freebie" standard deduction. A lot arithmetic hoops to jump through to get this answer made more complicated by phaseouts and other arcane rules. I'...
by JustinR
Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: California - clarification on taxes
Replies: 36
Views: 2633

Re: California - clarification on taxes

Say I'm in the 28% federal marginal bracket. I'm in California. Does this mean, that for the last dollar I make from my employer , I lose this in taxes: Fed: 28% State: 9.3% It isn't just your wages that are taxed like this, but also most of the other income on your tax return, although some things...
by JustinR
Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: California - clarification on taxes
Replies: 36
Views: 2633

Re: California - clarification on taxes

Edit: So if you itemize you can subtract 28% * 9.3% = 2.6%, which means your tax is 43.3%. The itemize deduction is only worth it's benefit above the "freebie" standard deduction. A lot arithmetic hoops to jump through to get this answer made more complicated by phaseouts and other arcane rules. I'...
by JustinR
Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: California - clarification on taxes
Replies: 36
Views: 2633

Re: California - clarification on taxes

Thanks guys. I'm only talking about the very last dollar, so effective rate and itemizing is irrelevant right? Effective rate wouldn't be relevant, but itemizing would lower the marginal rate by 2.6% (.28 [marginal fed rate] * .093 [marginal state rate] = ~ .026). Marginal rate meaning the % tax pa...
by JustinR
Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: California - clarification on taxes
Replies: 36
Views: 2633

Re: California - clarification on taxes

Yes, but with some caveats: - The 6.2% social security tax only applies on the first $127,200 of earnings (2017). The 28% Federal bracket goes up to $191,650 (2017). So to the extent your taxable income falls between those two numbers, your marginal tax rate would decrease for dollars beyond $127,2...
by JustinR
Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: California - clarification on taxes
Replies: 36
Views: 2633

California - clarification on taxes

I'm trying to get something straight. Say I'm in the 28% federal marginal bracket. I'm in California. Does this mean, that for the last dollar I make from my employer , I lose this in taxes: Fed: 28% State: 9.3% SDI: 0.9% Social Security Tax: 6.2% Medicare Tax: 1.5% ------- 45.9% in taxes? So for ev...
by JustinR
Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR - Non-reinvested dividends
Replies: 43
Views: 3956

Re: XIRR - Non-reinvested dividends

longinvest wrote:
Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:18 am
This wiki page and spreadsheet might be of interest to some readers: wiki: Calculating personal returns.
What's the benefit of your spreadsheet over XIRR?