Search found 304 matches

by BackInTheBlack
Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - Got a Question for Jack?
Replies: 53
Views: 15030

Re: Got a Question You'd Like to Ask Jack Bogle?

Hi Mel, Can we get Jack to expand on his comments (link below) regarding the market consisting of greater than 75% of indexers? What does this mean for the individual investor in terms of the indexing pathway? https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=220189 This is a very good point, a...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1937
Views: 359378

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I need to figure out Alpha, Treynor, and Sortino ratios for my portfolio. To be honest, my all-stock portion (I have a portfolio of about 30 individual stocks) has performed extremely well in absolute terms since '09, but in risk-adjusted terms, I'm not so sure. Overall, though, YTD my equity portfo...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu May 25, 2017 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg hit piece - Vanguard's Irritating Perch on the Moral High Ground
Replies: 52
Views: 9401

Re: Bloomberg hit piece - Vanguard's Irritating Perch on the Moral High Ground

Vanguard sounds like a mutual savings bank in structure. Not-for-profits certainly make profits - they have to if they intend to stay viable over the long term. See another thread about churches and what can happen when revenues in the form of contributions/donations and investment support dry up. ...
by BackInTheBlack
Sat Apr 30, 2016 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Putting Active Management to the Test
Replies: 117
Views: 19628

Re: Putting Active Management to the Test

Here is a 2 year update comparing performance of 24 active funds with their passive benchmarks. The 24 funds were selected based on ER, turnover, active strategy, past performance and other factors as discussed in OP. IMO the comparison is interesting since it represents how active funds might be s...
by BackInTheBlack
Sat Apr 30, 2016 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Putting Active Management to the Test
Replies: 117
Views: 19628

Re: Putting Active Management to the Test

I will post a much more detailed performance update when I have more time (very soon), but having just run the numbers tonight, it looks like, at first blush, 19 of 24 actively-managed funds from this list have outperformed their respective passively-managed benchmarks. That period of outperformance...
by BackInTheBlack
Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E nearly guaranteed to be lower in 5 years
Replies: 19
Views: 4496

Re: Shiller P/E nearly guaranteed to be lower in 5 years

My question is, what are the other useful measuring sticks out there, and where does Shiller's eponymous tool fit in? Is it even useful at all? I'm sure some will say that I'm beating a dead horse on this forum, but respectfully, I'm trying to shine a somewhat different light on things by presentin...
by BackInTheBlack
Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E nearly guaranteed to be lower in 5 years
Replies: 19
Views: 4496

Re: Shiller P/E nearly guaranteed to be lower in 5 years

Very interesting JoMoney, thanks. I take it this is from a Vanguard whitepaper? (seems to be in the same format) As for the predictive value of Shiller PE10, would it be correct to say that since said metric explains 43% (according to the chart provided) of the variance of future stock market perfo...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers
Replies: 70
Views: 9328

Re: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers

It's somewhat of a point of contention on here as you know, and kind of boils down to a referendum on the EMH, but I don't want to hijack the thread for the purpose of steamrolling that horse carcass anymore, ... Actually, not. Jack Bogle is now very insistent that the Efficient Market Hypothesis (...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Trust?
Replies: 32
Views: 3418

Re: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Tr

I claim that because excitement over an apparent trend builds exponentially, most of the people who hear about a trend, hear about it late in the process when it is almost over. To test this hypothesis, I would like you to think back as best you can and see whether you can remember the approximate ...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Trust?
Replies: 32
Views: 3418

Re: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Tr

I claim that because excitement over an apparent trend builds exponentially, most of the people who hear about a trend, hear about it late in the process when it is almost over. To test this hypothesis, I would like you to think back as best you can and see whether you can remember the approximate ...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers
Replies: 70
Views: 9328

Re: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers

I have not followed how much they use it but with that much stock Vanguard should have a lot of clout with the companies that it owns shares of so they may be able to help get companies more focused on doing what is in the shareholders best interests. Vanguard has become more active re: proxy fight...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers
Replies: 70
Views: 9328

Re: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers

Just to get y'all back on track: It's not indexing, or not not stock picking. It's low costs. I believe Jack Bogle freely admits some stock pickers can beat the market before costs (or after very low costs) . After costs, (generally) not (at least not for their clients). L. My slight edit in red. I...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Advisor Compensation
Replies: 36
Views: 4417

Re: Financial Advisor Compensation

If you place trades through your broker, they may skim some of the bid/ask spread or give you a poor execution. Otherwise, these folks can hope for the future when you pay them something. At least they know that your assets have not gone to a competing firm. The broker can claim a larger value for ...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers
Replies: 70
Views: 9328

Re: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers

Just to get y'all back on track: It's not indexing, or not not stock picking. It's low costs. I believe Jack Bogle freely admits some stock pickers can beat the market before costs (or after very low costs) . After costs, (generally) not (at least not for their clients). L. My slight edit in red.
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E nearly guaranteed to be lower in 5 years
Replies: 19
Views: 4496

Re: Shiller P/E nearly guaranteed to be lower in 5 years

The fifty fifty solution. As I understand, Doctor Jeremy Siegel is not buying his friend Doctor Robert Shiller's stock valuations and is calling for a Dow 18,000 by the end of 2014. If you listen to Doctor Shiller there is a good possibility that you will SELL your equity mutual funds. If you liste...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers
Replies: 70
Views: 9328

Re: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers

Interesting. Investors have similarly been throwing money into Blackrock's products for the very same reason. iShares ETF's are very, very popular investment vehicles, and by far the biggest threat to Vanguard's market share going forward. Observing the inexorable move by the investment community in...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E nearly guaranteed to be lower in 5 years
Replies: 19
Views: 4496

Re: Shiller P/E nearly guaranteed to be lower in 5 years

Don't count on it. Shiller PE is is based on the observation that corporate profits have risen and fallen over the course of the business cycle. It looks at 10 years worth of earnings since this time period includes all phases of the typical business cycle, covering periods of both high and low ear...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E nearly guaranteed to be lower in 5 years
Replies: 19
Views: 4496

Re: Shiller P/E nearly guaranteed to be lower in 5 years

...what are the other useful measuring sticks out there... Depends on what you think "useful" means.... https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s338.pdf http://i59.tinypic.com/28lq9go.png ...Readers will also note that the projected distribution of annualized 10-year U.S. stock returns ... displays wide ...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?
Replies: 102
Views: 11917

Re: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?

Letting the Govt put some of my TSP in the G fund. Seriously, why does a 20 something need a boatload in the G fund? Also, I may be entering my "missed money opportunity" now. I have 2, count 'em 2!, shares of FB on hand and don't know if I should sell those bad boys or stick with it. I purchased w...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E nearly guaranteed to be lower in 5 years
Replies: 19
Views: 4496

Shiller P/E nearly guaranteed to be lower in 5 years

Why? Well, the gigantic earnings slump of the financial crisis will be in the rearview, and the denominator in the equation will be considerably higher as a result. In 5 years, we could well be saying that the market is an obvious buy at prevailing prices simply due to this factor. Throw in the fact...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?
Replies: 102
Views: 11917

Re: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?

Letting the Govt put some of my TSP in the G fund. Seriously, why does a 20 something need a boatload in the G fund? Also, I may be entering my "missed money opportunity" now. I have 2, count 'em 2!, shares of FB on hand and don't know if I should sell those bad boys or stick with it. I purchased w...
by BackInTheBlack
Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman, smart guy, should you listen to his forecasts
Replies: 76
Views: 11843

Re: John Hussman, smart guy, should you listen to his foreca

So much of Hussman's position's validity depends on whether or not the Fed-induced market stimulus is really overinflating earnings or not. Make no mistake, however, on a current price-to-earnings basis, the market it NOT that richly valued (in fact, it's right around the last 30-year average). Huss...
by BackInTheBlack
Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?
Replies: 102
Views: 11917

Re: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?

I owned and sold 93 shares of Apple @ $15/share ... back around 2003?... which was before a 2:1 and a 7:1 split. :oops: Wouldn't that have made the shares $1.07 on a split-adjusted basis then? That's not possible since the shares traded in a range of about $1.80 to $3.40 on a split-adjusted basis i...
by BackInTheBlack
Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?
Replies: 102
Views: 11917

Re: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?

None too distressing myself, just a couple of missed "double or triple-baggers" as Peter Lynch would say, but nothing to get in a huff about; of course, I'm young, so I'm sure that will change in time! However, I do know that my aunt had almost $600,000 in Sun Microsystems during the tech boom, and ...
by BackInTheBlack
Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?
Replies: 102
Views: 11917

Re: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?

Apple Computer traded at $14 pre-split in late 2004 - today it trades at the equivalent price of $1,400. :oops: I could be misinterpreting what you're saying, but let's go over the numbers to be sure. The range for the split-adjusted price in 2004 was roughly $3 - $10. The current price is roughly ...
by BackInTheBlack
Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Suze Orman - Doesn't Like Target Date Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 7644

Re: Suze Orman - Doesn't Like Target Date Funds

In terms of the retail arena, VG is about the only company one should do target date/balanced funds with. In 401Ks, there seem to be better options in some cases. The non-VG target date funds in my 401K charge .12%. I have to disagree here; T. Rowe Price has one of the absolute best assortments of ...
by BackInTheBlack
Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns
Replies: 78
Views: 7459

Re: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns

Backinblack, I've all but given up on trying to figure out absolute valuations. As Berntson pointed out, the data are disturbingly dependent on where you look (as there are multiple ways to compute them) and fund companies seem to systematically report lower P/X metrics than the other sources. Then...
by BackInTheBlack
Sun Aug 03, 2014 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns
Replies: 78
Views: 7459

Re: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns

FWIW, I'll post the fundamental value for a few Vanguard funds. The fundamental value (as I'm using the term) is the result of (1) dividing each of the other four valuations measures by the valuation for the total market and (2) averaging the result. This way of doing things lets us express valuati...
by BackInTheBlack
Sun Aug 03, 2014 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 150
Views: 20605

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

Sorry to be blunt, but this thread encapsulates everything that I am starting to find frustrating about this board. Don't get me wrong--I absolutely believe in passive investing, staying the course, diversification, and tax efficiency, But this discussion is about cherry-picking data that supports ...
by BackInTheBlack
Sun Aug 03, 2014 1:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns
Replies: 78
Views: 7459

Re: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns

BackInTheBlack, Can you quantify "most unattractive it's been in decades"? Where is the data on small cap valuations in prior decades compared to present? Do you have any data to substantiate the notion of "recent institutional infatuation with factor investing"? To answer your first question, how ...
by BackInTheBlack
Sat Aug 02, 2014 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns
Replies: 78
Views: 7459

Re: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns

BackInTheBlack: I think we agree. I'm mostly giving steve_14 a hard time. He's convinced that anyone who thinks that her portfolio has better risk/return characteristics must also believe in free lunches, tooth fairies, and Santa Clause. I'm just pointing out that his views about small caps and REI...
by BackInTheBlack
Sat Aug 02, 2014 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Boglehead-prisoner’s dilemma.
Replies: 33
Views: 6674

Re: The Boglehead-prisoner’s dilemma.

Very interesting thought experiment. Here is my solution. This solution relaxes the "trust no one" condition to a "diversify away the trust risk" condition. Which arguably is more Bogleheadish. Assumptions - a 60:40 portfolio (the one the prisoner wants) has an expected nominal return of ~6%, so th...
by BackInTheBlack
Sat Aug 02, 2014 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns
Replies: 78
Views: 7459

Re: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns

I didn't say anything about "overpriced" or "a free lunch". I simply pointed out that investors as a whole have changing preferences for asset classes, and at the moment are willing to pay a lot for small caps, which often means lower returns ahead. The idea is that if there really is evidence that...
by BackInTheBlack
Fri Jul 25, 2014 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm a genius!
Replies: 19
Views: 5787

Re: I'm a genius!

Back in early '09 when the market was completely collapsing and my parents were thinking of going to all cash in their retirement accounts, I talked them out of it, and in fact encouraged them to max out their contributions (including catch-up contributions), and even got my mom to start investing i...
by BackInTheBlack
Fri Jul 25, 2014 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should market valuations be completely disregarded?
Replies: 50
Views: 5801

Re: Should market valuations be completely disregarded?

Most Bogleheads seem to use the expression 'Market Timing' to mean anything other than fixed Strategic Asset Allocation. Would it more correct to apply the term only to Tactical Asset Allocation? Like "active" in describing a fund covers a range of territory so does "market timing". While I am not ...
by BackInTheBlack
Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Overvalued
Replies: 23
Views: 3118

Re: Value Overvalued

Well, the reason I've been spending a lot of time looking at Value is currently I have VT (Vanguard Total World) for my stocks. Very simple. And I've been thinking about tilting to 'beat the market', since a lot of information seem to point to the effects of Value, e.g. Shiller's Irrational Exubera...
by BackInTheBlack
Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Overvalued
Replies: 23
Views: 3118

Re: Value Overvalued

I find it interesting that, as I have pointed out in another thread, the best performing "style box" in recent decades was mid-cap value, not small-cap value. According to JPM, some of that is due to faster expanding multiples, which is surprising.
by BackInTheBlack
Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Millennials (with jobs) are super-saving their retirement
Replies: 65
Views: 12862

Re: Millennials (with jobs) are super-saving their retiremen

After graduating in '09, I always contributed at least 15% of my income to the company plan, but got very sick pretty early on, and haven't even been able to work for a few years now. With huge medical bills and little income to speak of, I learned pretty quickly how damaging illness can be for one'...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: Do you have a dedicated REIT allocation?
Replies: 123
Views: 11508

Re: POLL: Do you have a dedicated REIT allocation?

Not currently, but I do plan to add some whenever valuations become more reasonable. According to Morningstar data, the average P/E is 44.6 in the industry right now. I don't know what the long-term average is, and I'm sure it's a bit higher than most other sectors given the high income, but even so...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: was Bogle right about ETFs?
Replies: 26
Views: 3633

Re: was Bogle right about ETFs?

ETFs have certainly terrorized the retail financial advisory industry, as they've taken the middle man out of investing. No more do we have to pay loads, or go through advisors, to own diversified portfolios. And we can move from one fund family to another (for example to TLH) without being held ca...
by BackInTheBlack
Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Man turned $2 m into 187 million and gave it away
Replies: 7
Views: 2951

Re: Man turned $2 m into 187 million and gave it away

... whether investing in S&P 500 or a VG 3 fund portfolio would have worked out similarly ... Measuring Worth put the January 2013 average of its "Accumulated S&P Index" at 360 times its January 1953 average. http://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/sap/ Also see Morningstar's growth of 10k charts fo...
by BackInTheBlack
Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Man turned $2 m into 187 million and gave it away
Replies: 7
Views: 2951

Re: Man turned $2 m into 187 million and gave it away

turned a $2m inheritance into 187 million over 60 years (187 / 2) ^ (1 / 60) = 7.86% annual growth S&P 500 60 years ago was around $22 and today $1973, so 7.78% annual growth, so 8 basis points less. Does this mean he could manage a fund with 0.08% expense ratio to get the same results? Yes, but th...
by BackInTheBlack
Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young
Replies: 64
Views: 9162

Re: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young

Well, looking at the last roughly 30 years, small cap value has been greatly overshadowed by mid-cap value, interestingly enough, both on a risk-adjusted AND absolute basis. From 1985-2013 MCV: 13.23% CAGR 18.45% SD 0.59 Sharpe 1.03 Sortino SCV: 11.79% CAGR 18.92% SD 0.51 Sharpe 0.83 Sortino Maybe s...
by BackInTheBlack
Sun Jul 06, 2014 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguards Devil's Advocate
Replies: 55
Views: 9195

Re: Road to investment success.

I am curious if there other major schools of thought that are quite the contrary to Vanguard's ideas of investing. BigPrince: I don't understand how you could read the five books you listed and not be convinced of the Boglehead Investment Philosophy . Perhaps I can save you time. Below is a link to...
by BackInTheBlack
Sat Jul 05, 2014 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times: Not enough younger investment advisors
Replies: 72
Views: 9598

Re: NY Times: Not enough younger investment advisors

In college I did an internship at an Edward Jones office (yeah yeah, laugh it up), and got somewhat of a feel for what a "successful" practice was like. The guy I worked under had $200 million AUM, which is pretty considerable by most standards in that business. He had over 1,000 clients, several o...
by BackInTheBlack
Sat Jul 05, 2014 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Bogleheads get involved in private equity?
Replies: 31
Views: 6617

Re: Any Bogelheads get involved in private equity?

If you could be a general partner and take advantage of the carried interest provision in the tax code, sure! Otherwise, I'd stick with the Boglehead strategy that's helped you build your wealth in the first place.
by BackInTheBlack
Tue Jul 01, 2014 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times: Not enough younger investment advisors
Replies: 72
Views: 9598

Re: NY Times: Not enough younger investment advisors

In college I did an internship at an Edward Jones office (yeah yeah, laugh it up), and got somewhat of a feel for what a "successful" practice was like. The guy I worked under had $200 million AUM, which is pretty considerable by most standards in that business. He had over 1,000 clients, several of...
by BackInTheBlack
Tue Jul 01, 2014 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times: Not enough younger investment advisors
Replies: 72
Views: 9598

Re: NY Times: Not enough younger investment advisors

After reading this post its seems to me that advisors are needless Imagine if... doctors' benchmarks for good performance were... performing the bare minimum of cost-ineffective procedures while performing as many high-margin procedures as possible. There would still be people who love their doctor...
by BackInTheBlack
Mon Jun 30, 2014 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond yield =/= guaranteed return
Replies: 36
Views: 4384

Re: Bond yield =/= guaranteed return

BIB, Sorry I got confused with the Fabozzi book. The following Fabozzi book is used as a textbook. Bond Markets, Analysis and Strategies http://www.amazon.com/Bond-Markets-Analysis-Strategies-Edition/dp/013274354X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1404176825&sr=8-1&keywords=fabozzi+bond+markets+analysis+and+s...