Search found 513 matches

by exodusing
Sun Mar 19, 2023 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

The deal will entirely wipe out around $17 billion of a special class of Credit Suisse bonds known as AT1s. These bonds were created after the last financial crisis and get written down in times of stress. Authorities said the measure was needed so that creditors shared a burden along with the Swiss government, and that there was a clear legal basis for the write-off. Equity getting paid ahead of bonds seems odd. Can someone explain? Was this just an explicit risk of the bonds? Seems European banking regulators are not happy with the US: "European regulators criticise US ‘incompetence’ over Silicon Valley Bank collapse" (FT headline) Credit Suisse Chairman Axel Lehmann said the recent bank troubles that started in the U.S. were t...
by exodusing
Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Citi and other Global Systematically Important Banks are subject to a high level of regulatory scrutiny and expanded capital requirements. https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/P211122.pdf Given their size and importance, they are almost certainly in the "too big to fail category", especially the top tier. The government is not going to let them collapse. Large depositors know this, greatly reducing the chances of bank run. Reportedly they, and the other giants, are experiencing increasing deposits from those worried about smaller banks, even in light of information about the percentage of uninsured deposits. Credit Suisse has issues, but it's looking like it will be saved this weekend. Reportedly, the Swiss National Bank is off...
by exodusing
Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Citi and other Global Systematically Important Banks are subject to a high level of regulatory scrutiny and expanded capital requirements. https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/P211122.pdf

Given their size and importance, they are almost certainly in the "too big to fail category", especially the top tier. The government is not going to let them collapse. Large depositors know this, greatly reducing the chances of bank run. Reportedly they, and the other giants, are experiencing increasing deposits from those worried about smaller banks, even in light of information about the percentage of uninsured deposits.

Credit Suisse has issues, but it's looking like it will be saved this weekend.
by exodusing
Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab SWVXX vs Vanguard VMFXX risks
Replies: 36
Views: 4253

Re: Schwab SWVXX vs Vanguard VMFXX risks

Washington, D.C., Jan. 31, 2011 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that investors can for the first time access detailed information that money market funds file with the Commission — including information about a fund's investments and the market-based price of its portfolio known as its "shadow NAV" (net asset value) or mark-to-market valuation.
https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2011/2011-32.htm
by exodusing
Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

UBS Offers $1 Billion to Buy Credit Suisse
The discussions are part of urgent effort by Swiss and global authorities to restore trust in banking system
I'm not sure UBS paying $1 billion for a bank which had an $8 billion market cap on Friday would restore trust. It would seem to indicate that, upon examination, a major bank thought another major bank was overvalued in the market.
by exodusing
Sun Mar 19, 2023 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with TIPS in high tax-bracket taxable accounts?
Replies: 32
Views: 2147

Re: What to do with TIPS in high tax-bracket taxable accounts?

How do TIPS work for high tax bracket investors with taxable accounts? Do you recommend them at all? Do you recommend high doses of TIPS, which, in high inflation, become subject to big "taxflation". And if not TIPS for those who "won the game" then what? If “high tax bracket” equals “high net worth”, then maybe for simplicity think in terms of three options: TIPS, Nominal Treasuries or Total Stock Market (VTI). As others have noted, equities provide better inflation-adjusted returns than TIPS or nominals, and at a lower tax cost (albeit with greater risk and volatility). So if you’ve won the game and can live comfortably, even with a greater equity risk, you or your heirs will come out ahead. So maybe the question is n...
by exodusing
Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VUSXX taxable for state and local now
Replies: 77
Views: 6905

Re: VUSXX taxable for state and local now

retiringwhen wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 5:35 pm
exodusing wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 5:29 pm
indexfundfan wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 5:18 pm I was holding VUSXX on Etrade and I swapped it to GABXX, which potentially has no repos. It also has a very slightly lower ER.
and a longer average maturity, 32 v 46 days.
About half due to VUSXX holding the Repos I would bet. Most of the other Treasury Only are running around 37-39 days.
Another at 35: viewtopic.php?p=7155023#p7155023
by exodusing
Sat Mar 18, 2023 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VUSXX taxable for state and local now
Replies: 77
Views: 6905

Re: VUSXX taxable for state and local now

indexfundfan wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 5:18 pm I was holding VUSXX on Etrade and I swapped it to GABXX, which potentially has no repos. It also has a very slightly lower ER.
and a longer average maturity, 32 v 46 days.
by exodusing
Sat Mar 18, 2023 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

I'm slightly puzzled as to whether or not the language is still there--it used to be printed right in the bankbooks--but everything except checking accounts and the lowest tier savings accounts used to have fine print giving the bank the right to delay withdrawals for, maybe seven days. I don't know if that language is gone, or whether banks have never implemented a way to invoke it with online banking. Even if they followed that course, checking accounts were exempted and the vast majority of deposits are checking accounts or the functional equivalent. Those with large deposits almost certainly have the money in banks precisely because they can withdraw or distribute immediately, otherwise they'd be in something a bit less liquid and high...
by exodusing
Sat Mar 18, 2023 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

UBS in Talks to Take Over Credit Suisse Discussions are part of an urgent effort by Swiss and global authorities to restore trust in the banking system Credit Suisse took a more-than-$50 billion Swiss National Bank liquidity lifeline this week after concerns deepened about its prospects. The action didn’t do enough to stop the slide in Credit Suisse’s shares or stem the loss of bank deposits, compelling the central bank and Switzerland’s top financial regulator to orchestrate talks with Credit Suisse’s larger rival, UBS. First Republic Stock Plunges After Bank Rescue Plan, Dividend Suspension A $30 billion deposit influx from biggest U.S. banks fails to calm jittery investors Plus numerous threads here focused on the safety of various inve...
by exodusing
Sat Mar 18, 2023 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions for visit to japan
Replies: 38
Views: 2392

Re: Suggestions for visit to japan

Another useful technology advance is translation. I can point my phone at something in another language, including Japanese, and it will translate to English. Reportedly it will also work with spoken language, but I haven't tried that yet.
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YouTube TV
Replies: 102
Views: 11436

Re: YouTube TV

The same email lowered the price of the 4k Plus package from $20 to the formerly-promotional $10 rate. So they found a way to get that money out of me, or at least most of it. I'm not willing to pay $20, but I am willing to (and did during my promo period) pay $10, plus they're raising the base by $8, so they're very likely going to wind up with an extra $18/mo out of me vs. today. Very clever. Have you compared this new price to other options? (Fubo, sling, or whatever) I hadn't, but did a cursory comparison just now. Fubo would be about $8 more expensive than the new YTTV prices for comparable service. Sling is cheaper, but fewer channels and features. I'm a YTTV subscriber also, and did the same comparison. I will say that Fubo has bein...
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talked to Vanguard but still confused.
Replies: 32
Views: 2903

Re: Talked to Vanguard but still confused.

watchnerd wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:26 pm
exodusing wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:25 pm I have a mutual fund account and a brokerage account with Vanguard. I can't buy bonds online with funds from the mutual fund account, but can do it by calling the bond department. I've only used funds from money markets so far. I've been told I can use other mutual funds, but haven't tried that yet. You might try calling them.
Why wouldn't you just use the online bond desk in the brokerage account, instead?
Because that requires funds to be in the brokerage account. The brokerage account started empty and now holds only the bonds I bought. I wanted to buy same day, not wait a day for funds to transfer over.
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talked to Vanguard but still confused.
Replies: 32
Views: 2903

Re: Talked to Vanguard but still confused.

I have a mutual fund account and a brokerage account with Vanguard. I can't buy bonds online with funds from the mutual fund account, but can do it by calling the bond department. I've only used funds from money markets so far. I've been told I can use other mutual funds, but haven't tried that yet. You might try calling them.
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the benefit to the government for issuing inflation-protected securities
Replies: 67
Views: 4743

Re: What is the benefit to the government for issuing inflation-protected securities

TIPS differ from nominal treasuries in two important ways for investors. First, you are buying inflation protection. This costs something. Second, you are buying a security which is less liquid than nominal treasuries. You should expect to be paid for this lack of liquidity. A reasonable simplifying assumption is that the two effects essentially cancel each other out, but in practice one or the other is likely to be larger.
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

This last statement is not necessarily true. I was once a customer of a bank that had over 100% liquidity so if everyone who had a demand deposit presented it at the same time, the bank would just sell liquid assets and give them their money. For obvious reasons, they didn't ever have a run. Were they not in the business of lending? How did they make money? They lent money only on assets they held, including gold and silver, and maybe stocks too. Since those were margin loans, they were callable at any time; if the margin call wasn't met, they would sell the collateral, which was highly liquid so they could get the money immediately. What bank was this? Why do you ask? It was acquired decades ago, so is no longer available for use, if that...
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

technovelist wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 1:29 pm
simplesimon wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 6:50 am
technovelist wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 6:33 am This last statement is not necessarily true. I was once a customer of a bank that had over 100% liquidity so if everyone who had a demand deposit presented it at the same time, the bank would just sell liquid assets and give them their money. For obvious reasons, they didn't ever have a run.
Were they not in the business of lending? How did they make money?
They lent money only on assets they held, including gold and silver, and maybe stocks too.
Since those were margin loans, they were callable at any time; if the margin call wasn't met, they would sell the collateral, which was highly liquid so they could get the money immediately.
What bank was this?
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix: International Diversification.
Replies: 409
Views: 19004

Re: Ben Felix: International Diversification.

The probability of risk showing up increases. The impact of those risks decrease. Diversifying removes the extreme left and extreme right tails. Most of us don't need the extreme right tails yet the extreme left tails can be devastating. I agree, but it is a fool's errand to use equities to reduce risk. Having safer assets is far more effective in achieving the goal you're stating. That's why it makes sense to be well diversified in all imperfectly correlated investable assets in all countries. There are relatively safe ex-US assets and relatively risky ex-US assets, just as there are safe and risky US assets. Since these assets are imperfectly correlated, it makes sense to invest in all of them. That makes no sense. Investing in everythin...
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with TIPS in high tax-bracket taxable accounts?
Replies: 32
Views: 2147

Re: Mike Piper's New Book ["More than Enough"]

With all due respect to the expert, this is wrong in a high inflation (2022-2023 for instance) situation. And the point of my question. If you have ten million of TIPS, you'll pay tax on $870,000 (8.7% 2022 inflation adjustment) plus $150,000 (1.5% coupon). With nominal treasuries, you'll only pay tax on the coupon. I get it that TIPS still may leave you with more , but over a 1966-1981 period the taxflation here would grind the portfolio down. Mike, think on this further. I think you're missing my point about the problem of TIPS getting progressively more taxable the higher inflation goes. I'm not sure what else to say here other than to highlight the bolded part. Yes, with nominal Treasuries you'd be paying less tax, but your after-tax a...
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with TIPS in high tax-bracket taxable accounts?
Replies: 32
Views: 2147

Re: What to do with TIPS in high tax-bracket taxable accounts?

TIPS in taxable means you don't pay state/local tax on interest or inflation adjustment. TIPS in IRA or 401(k) means you pay state/local on everything you withdraw, including interest and state/local tax. TIPS in taxable means you have to pay federal taxes on phantom income (the inflation adjustment). This is really only a problem if you don't have the cash. In tax-deferred, you pay taxes on withdrawal, so you'll have the cash. If inflation is higher than expected, TIPS win over nominal treasuries. If inflation is less than expected, nominals win. In high unexpected inflation, TIPS don't offer as much protection as you might hope, due to taxes, but they're still better than nominals. Depends on what's important to you. I trust someone will...
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

rockstar wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 1:15 pm Does this whole fail boil down to chasing yield with duration is bad?
That's part of it, but the whole is more complicated than that. If you want one simplistic sentence, don't have liabilities that are demanding to be paid now when all you have to pay is assets that can not be liquidated to raise enough to pay such liabilities.
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with TIPS in high tax-bracket taxable accounts?
Replies: 32
Views: 2147

Re: What to do with TIPS in high tax-bracket taxable accounts?

TIPS in taxable means you don't pay state/local tax on interest or inflation adjustment. TIPS in IRA or 401(k) means you pay state/local on everything you withdraw, including interest and state/local tax. TIPS in taxable means you have to pay federal taxes on phantom income (the inflation adjustment). This is really only a problem if you don't have the cash. In tax-deferred, you pay taxes on withdrawal, so you'll have the cash. If inflation is higher than expected, TIPS win over nominal treasuries. If inflation is less than expected, nominals win. In high unexpected inflation, TIPS don't offer as much protection as you might hope, due to taxes, but they're still better than nominals. Depends on what's important to you. I trust someone will ...
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Another take: At a high level and in very brief summary: there have been regulations since the 2010s which are meant to set limits on the ability of banks to “borrow short / lend long”. They’re not meant to prevent it – how could you prevent a bank from doing liquidity transformation, that’s what it’s for! But they put limits on it. In an important sense, most bank regulations are really just codifications of best practice (in this case, sensible management of a bank’s treasury). Their purpose is really to draw a line under best practice, in an industry where people who don’t follow good practices can gain a lot of market share really quickly. The USA didn’t do a good job of implementing these regulations – it only applied them properly to...
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Another take: At a high level and in very brief summary: there have been regulations since the 2010s which are meant to set limits on the ability of banks to “borrow short / lend long”. They’re not meant to prevent it – how could you prevent a bank from doing liquidity transformation, that’s what it’s for! But they put limits on it. In an important sense, most bank regulations are really just codifications of best practice (in this case, sensible management of a bank’s treasury). Their purpose is really to draw a line under best practice, in an industry where people who don’t follow good practices can gain a lot of market share really quickly. The USA didn’t do a good job of implementing these regulations – it only applied them properly to ...
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 11:15 am
exodusing wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 10:23 am If it does increase inflation, the Fed can use other means to lower inflation, such as increasing interest rates.
Which causes problems for banks with liquidity issues and who have to sell bonds at a loss.
Among many other issues. One example is it slows the economy, which causes problems for a lot of people. For bank, reducing the level of economic activity is not a positive.
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Perhaps a more direct question: is this injecting $ that could run contrary to the Fed's goal of reducing inflation? There is no direct relation between the money supply and inflation. The relation is mediated by velocity, how quickly the money is spent or turns over. There can be a massive increase in the money supply and if the money is not spent quickly, you won't see much inflation. See for example https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money If it does increase inflation, the Fed can use other means to lower inflation, such as increasing interest rates. Giving people stimulus checks is a lot different from the Fed printing money to buy treasuries. That may be true, but it doesn't contradict...
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Looks like FRC is going to make it https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-morgan-stanley-and-others-in-talks-to-bolster-first-republic-4f9eeb76 "Four of the country’s biggest banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo — agreed to contribute $5 billion each. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will contribute $2.5 billion each and BNY Mellon, PNC Bank, State Street, Truist and US Bank will each add $1 billion. "The deposits are uninsured, the banks said" I wonder what other terms there may be. If I were one of those banks I'd want some form of equity. What does this even mean? Deposits are liabilities of the bank. How does increasing the amount of their liabilities help them? And where did the other banks ...
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

YoungSisyphus wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 9:43 amPerhaps a more direct question: is this injecting $ that could run contrary to the Fed's goal of reducing inflation?
There is no direct relation between the money supply and inflation. The relation is mediated by velocity, how quickly the money is spent or turns over. There can be a massive increase in the money supply and if the money is not spent quickly, you won't see much inflation. See for example https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money

If it does increase inflation, the Fed can use other means to lower inflation, such as increasing interest rates.
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the benefit to the government for issuing inflation-protected securities
Replies: 67
Views: 4743

Re: What is the benefit to the government for issuing inflation-protected securities

They can argue that, but food, housing, and energy costs are much larger and universal concerns than the quality of their TV. An "average" U.S. salary could support a family decades past, while today a dual-income family can't afford the child care to allow a couple to work... while they watch the decline in the education system available to their children. The share of national income going to labor had declined over decades past. That has likely had a larger effect than inflation. If labor had more bargaining power, it would have been able to keep its share steady, whatever inflation might have done. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cc/FRED_graph_of_US_labor_share_1948%E2%80%932016.svg/1920px-FRED_graph_of...
by exodusing
Fri Mar 17, 2023 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the benefit to the government for issuing inflation-protected securities
Replies: 67
Views: 4743

Re: What is the benefit to the government for issuing inflation-protected securities

BitTooAggressive wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 2:43 am
nhs76 wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 1:45 am
chinchin wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:49 am
ruanddu wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 10:57 pm Real inflation is likely twice as high as tips and ibonds pay out so not too bad of a deal for government after all. 😀
This. They can manipulate the inflation number.
Twice as high? Manipulation? Is there published research on this? I could believe that there might be a timing difference in the reported figure/adjusted figure, but twice as high seems hyperbolic.
Why do you think core inflation was invented? :oops:
It was invented because some components of inflation are very volatile, so CPI numbers would bounce around a lot, obscuring the trend. Core inflation essentially smooths out the reported numbers. If you look at core and CPI over time, they end up being about the same, it's only in the short term they diverge.
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

The move by 11 banks to deposit $30B into First Republic Bank is pretty incredible to me. When there was first mention of a rescue plan in place I was expecting equity. I can see how it's a self-preservation move although JPM is too big to fail and perhaps figured it would be more costly dealing with contagion. I look forward to hearing more details about how this came together. Pretty much the entire list falls into the too big to fail category. There are now reports that other banks want to join, on the theory that it would make them look strong. I had been thinking of deposits with an equity kicker. I'd phrase the fear as major macro problems which would not be good for them. On an individual business basis, contagion would likely lead ...
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What are retirees who "over saved" doing with funds?
Replies: 72
Views: 5934

Re: What are retirees who "over saved" doing with funds?

I interpreted "over saved" as having more money than you would ever realistically spend given your current habits. 25x annual expenses is a popular figure around here, so something around 50x or more would seem to qualify easily, perhaps a much smaller multiple depending on your attitude. If you have plans for children or charities, take that off the top.
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions for visit to japan
Replies: 38
Views: 2392

Re: Suggestions for visit to japan

I'll join the trend. We've visited Japan three times and had no trouble getting around. Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka are great and shouldn't be a problem to do on your own. The train system is very efficient and easy. Get a few guidebooks, see what you think looks good. It's a great country for Architecture, local traditions, culture and foodies.
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What are retirees who "over saved" doing with funds?
Replies: 72
Views: 5934

Re: What are retirees who "over saved" doing with funds?

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 12:34 pm What are retirees who "over saved" doing with funds in excess of their needs besides donating to kids and charities?
Spending absurd amounts on travel.
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

alex_686 wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:12 pm
exodusing wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:10 pm
alex_686 wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:08 pm
novolog wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:00 pm discount window borrowing skyrocketing. $150 billion this week

https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status ... 21057?s=20

seems like a lot of banks were in the same situation as SVB, gasping for liquidity
That, or banks are afraid of lending overnight to other banks. In normal times this is more common.
First Republic said Thursday that it had borrowed as much as $109 billion from the Fed one night within the past week.
Yeah, it has echoes of 2008. The credit market is sizing up a bit. Hopefully it won’t get as bad as that.
Hopefully. But if FRC was $109 of $150, and today's actions fixed FRC, then maybe things are looking up.
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

alex_686 wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:08 pm
novolog wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:00 pm discount window borrowing skyrocketing. $150 billion this week

https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status ... 21057?s=20

seems like a lot of banks were in the same situation as SVB, gasping for liquidity
That, or banks are afraid of lending overnight to other banks. In normal times this is more common.
First Republic said Thursday that it had borrowed as much as $109 billion from the Fed one night within the past week.
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Tanelorn wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 3:50 pm
exodusing wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 3:35 pm Eleven Banks Deposit $30 Billion in First Republic Bank
U.S. regulators say the group’s deposit ‘demonstrates the resilience of the banking system’
Looks like FRC is going to make it

https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-m ... c-4f9eeb76
"Four of the country’s biggest banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo — agreed to contribute $5 billion each. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will contribute $2.5 billion each and BNY Mellon, PNC Bank, State Street, Truist and US Bank will each add $1 billion.

"The deposits are uninsured, the banks said"

I wonder what other terms there may be. If I were one of those banks I'd want some form of equity.
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Eleven Banks Deposit $30 Billion in First Republic Bank
U.S. regulators say the group’s deposit ‘demonstrates the resilience of the banking system’
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Loans aren't marked to market, but instead provisioned against credit losses based on projections and internal credit ratings. Ignoring changes in interest rates, is there much of a difference between marking to market and provisioning against credit loses? If there's no change in interest rate, a treasury bond will be valued at par since there's no credit risk. Most business borrowers will have higher credit risk than the U.S. government so there's going to be a provision for credit loss. I had thought much of their loans were floating rate, which would help deal with loan value being affected by interest rate changes, but I haven't looked closely. Floating rate helps with profitability but doesn't help with liquidity. If a company's got ...
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix: International Diversification.
Replies: 409
Views: 19004

Re: Ben Felix: International Diversification.

Simply put: The response of the US government to a crisis is still not fully priced in to markets. I'm not 100% US but when decisions like FDIC action over the past week repeat time and time again I think there is a preference for US investments that meets and continually surpasses expectation. This is not taken into account in the theoretical asset allocation models in the sense that economists don't consult with political scientists, sociologists, and psychologists to attempt to include more human-based factors in the model (I understand, doing so would make the model intractable). My guess is in my lifetime the US's ability to do this with minor consequence will be lessened (I'm in my 50s) but I can't be sure. I'm pretty sure people in ...
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Loans aren't marked to market, but instead provisioned against credit losses based on projections and internal credit ratings. Ignoring changes in interest rates, is there much of a difference between marking to market and provisioning against credit loses? I had thought much of their loans were floating rate, which would help deal with loan value being affected by interest rate changes, but I haven't looked closely. Would SVB's Allowances for Credit Losses be likely to move dramatically from 12/31/2022 (latest audited balance sheet) to 3/10/2023 (boom)? I wouldn’t think so. Their credit allowances were basically the same between 12/31/2021 to 12/31/2022. I would think something like that would have popped up in the news by this point. Unl...
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and several other big banks are discussing a potential deal with First Republic that could include a sizable capital infusion to shore up the beleaguered lender, people familiar with the matter said.
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Would you mind explaining this more for someone that really doesn't understand? I didn't see where they explicitly said that SVB has sufficient assets to cover depositors. I saw this https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23019.html which just said "Any losses to the Deposit Insurance Fund to support uninsured depositors will be recovered by a special assessment on banks, as required by law." But forgive my ignorance but I didn't see where they explicitly said the assets of SVB are sufficient to cover depositors. Well, what you are citing is just a governmental press release. There is a logic behind what they are. Keep it short, keep it simple, if you don’t have the details then don’t speculate. Now I have lived through ...
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

"Officials at the Fed monitored real-time data showing a growing pile of withdrawal requests." Does the Fed have access to banks' internal monitoring or were the banks deciding to send them the information? https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-top-washington-officials-agreed-to-a-bank-rescue-ef489db8 The Fed clears all transfers between banks. They are a central clearing house - that is a core function. Checks, wires, etc. Aha - meaningful withdrawals from banks would be wire and maybe ACH transfers to other banks, so the Fed would see those. You're not going to withdraw large amounts of money over the weekend by check or ATM. For context, I had a friend who worked at a small bank. Part of her job was to stop in on her commute at the...
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix: International Diversification.
Replies: 409
Views: 19004

Re: Ben Felix: International Diversification.

It seems like you're saying two things here: 1) the USA is better than other countries, and 2) other investors aren't aware of this and are mis-pricing USA shares. The rationale for American investors to have 0% foreign allocation is the view that America has a systematic and enduring advantage. Occasionally other markets will do better, maybe for a run of several years... performance always has a standard-deviation superimposed. But over the proverbial long run, America's cultural, institutional, geographic etc. advantages will overwhelm. If we don't believe in market timing, we won't attempt to chase such occasional periods of outperformance. If this "systematic and enduring advantage" is perpetual, then arguments about stretch...
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

alex_686 wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:48 am
exodusing wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:32 am "Officials at the Fed monitored real-time data showing a growing pile of withdrawal requests."

Does the Fed have access to banks' internal monitoring or were the banks deciding to send them the information?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-top-wa ... e-ef489db8
The Fed clears all transfers between banks. They are a central clearing house - that is a core function. Checks, wires, etc.
Aha - meaningful withdrawals from banks would be wire and maybe ACH transfers to other banks, so the Fed would see those. You're not going to withdraw large amounts of money over the weekend by check or ATM.
by exodusing
Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

"Officials at the Fed monitored real-time data showing a growing pile of withdrawal requests."

Does the Fed have access to banks' internal monitoring or were the banks deciding to send them the information?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-top-wa ... e-ef489db8
by exodusing
Wed Mar 15, 2023 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix: International Diversification.
Replies: 409
Views: 19004

Re: Ben Felix: International Diversification.

So don’t invest in EM but developed. Yeah, good suggestion. Or I wonder, Yellen and others have talked about friendly shoring. I suppose if there ever is an ETF with a decent ER and meaningful definition of a friendly shore, then I’d like to market weight by that. I will have to read the paper on luck more, but is suspect that geo-political losses would get tallied in the luck category. I think rather though that gov. and legal structures may actually be what is explanatory. Some leaders readily have the power to take their country off the rails. It seems like you're saying two things here: 1) the USA is better than other countries, and 2) other investors aren't aware of this and are mis-pricing USA shares. That line of reasoning is a typi...
by exodusing
Wed Mar 15, 2023 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix: International Diversification.
Replies: 409
Views: 19004

Re: Ben Felix: International Diversification.

OK, so Felix contends that US outperformance is due to luck of expected disasters not materializing and investors learning the US is safer which drives up valuations. To me, discussion of Felix's presentation style is irrelevant. What I want to know, is what is his criterion of 'expected disasters'? Are we see fewer nuclear meltdowns? Is it a climate (drought) thing? Is this geography related? Or is is related to the devastating effects of war? Are avoidance of these 'expected disasters' truly due to luck or explained by something else. Without examination of that fundamental assertion, how do we know if his claim is true? Markets perform relative to expectations. High performance likely means doing better than expected (or that everyone e...
by exodusing
Wed Mar 15, 2023 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1944
Views: 126296

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

After the close of trading in Europe, Switzerland’s central bank, the Swiss National Bank, said that it would step in and provide support to Credit Suisse “if necessary.”

I wonder why it took them so long.