Bogleheads.org

TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 9:48 am

Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Sat Mar 25, 2023 10:32 pm I've stopped investing in everything; I'm retired!

So you have sold all your equities, or do you mean investing new money? Maybe it is semantics but if you have money in equities you, in my mind, are investing in equities because you are either expecting or depending on the future returns of those holdings and that is an active no a passive position from my perspective.

Ah, good point. I took the question literally (if not flippantly), meaning "am I investing new money in equities?". And yes, I'm absolutely dependent on the stock growth in my portfolio to support me in retirement.

I've stopped investing in everything; I'm retired!

I think your advice was spot-on. They're retired; you directed them to invest in a very respectable, low-cost, diversified retirement income fund. They don't seem to be sweating the recent slight drawdown. Fret not.

PersonalFinanceJam wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 7:35 am

Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 11:13 pmI keep $9-10k in my Chase account; makes me nervous in light of this week's events ...

Genuinely curious why? That’s well below FDIC limits in a too big to fail bank.

Apart from my being a Nervous Nellie in the best of times? ... I suppose because I'd be in some difficulty if I couldn't withdraw cash/write cheques in case of the bank failing, and exactly how long it might take the FDIC to make my account whole.

rkhusky wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 8:08 pm I use my bank as a bill payment service. Money comes in and goes out. I keep a thousand there on average to cover bills, sometimes the balance hits $5K for a few days. $250K insurance is way more than I need.

I keep $9-10k in my Chase account; makes me nervous in light of this week's events ...

[...] That’s what Russia taught me anyway. The companies I held are hugely profitable now. They didn’t go bankrupt but we’re just removed from my portfolio due to citizenship. What do you mean by that? Gazprom for instance. It's profitable but my holdings went to zero because the fund I held it in is unable to sell it due to restrictions on unfriendly state persons. I said citizenship because that would be the criteria if I held shares directly. A US domiciled fund is considered an unfriendly state person too. This is the backlash of sanctions, and going foward I expect this to be just a new wrinkle on geo-polical risk. Russians and friendly nation people can still trade the stocks, they haven't been nationalized. That's rotten. Sorry that...

typical.investor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 6:42 pm[...] That’s what Russia taught me anyway. The companies I held are hugely profitable now. They didn’t go bankrupt but we’re just removed from my portfolio due to citizenship.

What do you mean by that?

muffins14 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 3:14 pm

Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:54 am

Apathizer wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:43 am Yeah, as someone who has been buzzing my scalp for about 20 years, I like it when Ben is a baldness brother, though I'm at the age not being bald isn't an option.

As long as he doesn't grow a beard. That's a confidence-killer, in my world.

You don’t trust people that have beards?

Okay, I trust them slightly more than I do people wearing fake '70s classic-rock t-shirts from Target.

Apathizer wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:43 am Yeah, as someone who has been buzzing my scalp for about 20 years, I like it when Ben is a baldness brother, though I'm at the age not being bald isn't an option.

As long as he doesn't grow a beard. That's a confidence-killer, in my world.

Great video from Ben, put any lingering doubts I had about international investment to rest.

Actually, I recently increased my own international stock percentage; I've become convinced that the U.S. is in a secular decline as a world power. Pace Mr. Bogle ...

Ben's return to the close-cropped look is a good move!

I have yet to see any forward-looking models that are helpful. The only thing I found helpful is honestly considering historical data and current market conditions. Which is in fact exactly what Karsten has done with his toolbox without playing any games with modeling or making assumptions not supported by history. Yes, anything can happen in the future, but when, considering likelihood, we only know the past. We don't only know the past. We also know what the current yields of stocks and bonds are, and we know that they are significantly lower than what prevailed historically. I think it's important to include that information in our financial planning And we know that we've had an unbelievable run for both stocks and bonds the last 40 ye...

To quote the BlackRock 2023 Global Outlook: The Great Moderation, the four-decade period of largely stable activity and inflation, is behind us. The new regime of greater macro and market volatility is playing out. A recession is foretold; central banks are on course to overtighten policy as they seek to tame inflation. This keeps us tactically underweight developed market (DM) equities. We expect to turn more positive on risk assets at some point in 2023 – but we are not there yet. And when we get there, we don’t see the sustained bull markets of the past. That’s why a new investment playbook is needed. We laid out in our 2022 midyear outlook why we had entered a new regime – and are seeing it play out in persistent inflation and output v...

Recently watched a video from a few years ago with John Bogle -- his revealed hos personal portfolio as being 50/50 stocks/bonds. Something about being retired and making no bets, I think he said.

I call this the "agnostic allocation", and have arranged my own retirement portfolio that way. Reasonably certain it'll carry me through; current withdrawal rate is ~2% (knock on wood).

Hope J. Powell listens to his inner Volcker.

Retired. Slightly more than 50% in bonds (via Target 2020, Wellesley). I let Vanguard allocate for me. Have stocks in Dodge and Cox Global, but that's a relatively small %. Also have about 3-4 years' in TIAA Traditional ("cash"), which I suppose means my allocation is roughly 60% or more in "safe" assets.

Still feel like a deer in the headlights if I happen to see the news ...

I just put KO through Portfolio Visualizer ... wow. A great performance. Wishes, horses etc.

burritoLover wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:11 pm Despite the fact that Buffett loves to point out the dividends he’s receiving from KO, they are really just anecdotal and meaningless.

Huh? He's just making it up?

We had a nice January. But now I'm seeing stocks AND bonds down on almost a daily basis; markets are finally seeing that the Fed is hiking rates 'til inflation is crushed, or the economy is, or both. I'm thinking mid-2024 before we see a turnaround -- I'm in Sequence Of Returns Risk land! Glad my balanced funds are throwing off dividends for me to live on.

minesweep wrote: ↑Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:12 pm It appears that the OP of this thread has left the building:
Username: matt
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007
Last active: Fri Jun 03, 2011
Total posts: 2305

Apparently the bear market's been over since September 2008!

blimp wrote: ↑Wed Feb 22, 2023 10:39 pm[...] If a nuclear warhead strikes Manhattan, we buy. [...]

Given that's where the stock exchanges are, may make buying somewhat challenging. Now, if it hits the Bronx
...

billaster wrote: ↑Wed Feb 22, 2023 11:32 pmThe Fed struggled for two decades to get inflation up to their 2% target.

Why would they want to do that?? Why not slay the inflation dragon altogether?

Something to do with a deflation buffer, is my guess.

There will be a period of mild hyperinflation in 2025-2026

I don't consider myself a buckets investor ... but I do have two distinct parts of my overall portfolio. One is stocks and bonds, mostly in balanced funds; the other is a cash reserve of about 4 years' worth of living expenses, for a "rainy day" (or more likely, a monsoon-y couple of years). I don't see myself as bucketing though, because (so far) I haven't tapped the cash reserve. So I've no decision rules in place for that part of my portfolio*. I just live off the income from my balanced funds. But a bucketeer might well say "Aha! A cash reserve, and stocks/bonds -- you're bucketed!" *Although, I may spend some or all of it in my mid-70s to buy an annuity, presuming inflation has gone back down to the normal 2% or wha...

am wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:40 am Are you going to find anyone here who retired on 500k? The overwhelming chorus here would be that someone with 500k should keep working, has no chance, etc. Yet somehow most people retire on that or less?

I'm currently retired on ~$450k. No issues, so far; roof over my head, food in the pantry, reasonable spending money, etc. ... I've found the meaning of enough.

My jaw drops reading posts from Bogleheads with millions of dollars fretting about whether they'll be able to retire!

Hey, Stock Market: Chairman Powell would like a word ...

Because there's no Wellesley ETF.

Whatever happened to every home having it's own 3D printer, connected to the internet? LOL

Mike Scott wrote: ↑Mon Feb 20, 2023 11:41 am Embrace the uncertainty of the future. What other choice do you have?

... and fully embrace the present moment. It's all we have.

Very wise post! It's all unknowable, because it happens in a country we haven't arrived in yet (and never will: the future). If we truly took it to heart, about 90% of threads in this forum would never be posted ...! But ... many of those threads are fascinating, and I fancy that I'm learning something (despite the math going waaaay over my head, and stuff like Sharpe ratios, factor regressions, "tail risk" etc. still baffle me). I retired when it seemed my portfolio could throw off enough income to support me, when coupled with Social Security and Medicare. I didn't know about the 4% rule, or anything! A foolish move, probably; but it's worked out so far, fingers crossed. Reading stuff here has educated me greatly on how to (hope...

When will this piece be published? That's pretty much my situation ...

billthecat wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 10:54 pm Can someone considering retirement in 1973, or 2000, know that he is at the start of the 1973-75, or 2000-02, sequence?

Where are we today? Like 1973, '74, or '75?

That's what I'd love to know (I retired at the end of 2018).

The new, restyled Corvette. Looks like an Italian exotic, but can be had for well under $100k, and will actually get you there and back!

If I win the lottery ...

Girls Can Tell, Spoon
US+THEM, Roger Waters
Ascenseur pour l'èchafaud, Miles Davis
Why Pick On Me, the Standells
3 Ragas, Ravi Shankar
Painted From Memory, Burt Bacharach and Elvis Costello
UK Singles Collection, the Beatles

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 12:37 pm So can Brazil default on these instruments?

Hmmmmm ...

https://www.google.com/search?q=has+bra ... e&ie=UTF-8

Is there any way a U.S. fund company buy these (i.e. Vanguard)? ... These suit me to a T (being a "most financially unsophisticated individual")



(I'm guessing not -- the "natural people" requirement)

Does VTMFX still impose a redemption fee for selling shares held less than five years? ... Those fees were eliminated years ago. Vanguard now only charges purchase and redemption fees on funds which trade in illiquid markets (for example, Vanguard Global Ex-US Real Estate), in order to avoid having inflows or outflows create significant costs for the long-term fundholders. Ah, thanks. I didn't fancy having to call Vanguard customer service. If Vanguard imposes a purchase or redemption fee it's disclosed on their website - no need to pick up your phone. Example: the Global Ex-US Real Estate fund mentioned above. See the "Performance & Fees" section. https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vgrlx R...

grabiner wrote: ↑Sat Feb 11, 2023 9:26 pm

Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 8:55 pm Does VTMFX still impose a redemption fee for selling shares held less than five years? ...

Those fees were eliminated years ago. Vanguard now only charges purchase and redemption fees on funds which trade in illiquid markets (for example, Vanguard Global Ex-US Real Estate), in order to avoid having inflows or outflows create significant costs for the long-term fundholders.

Ah, thanks. I didn't fancy having to call Vanguard customer service.

I'm pretty happy with my approach -- about 1/3 of my retirement portfolio is in a taxable account. Dividends and capital gains pay out enough for me to scrape by on (aided by S.S.and a small annuity). In my IRA, 401K, 403B and Roth, everything gets reinvested. Sequence Of Return Risk dragon seems slain!

If the dividend payout is roughly equal to your need, why not just take the money? (And prudently reinvest what you don't require, if there's a sizeable overage).

Does VTMFX still impose a redemption fee for selling shares held less than five years? ...

I'd go all-in, or not at all.

Before I retired, I asked several Very Smart People if I could depend upon my SS check being there all through my retirement (I'm now 69), and they all said "Absolutely! The government will find a way to keep the system funded." So, I'm depending on it; I don't have a seven-figure portfolio to take up the slack if benefits are cut or eliminated. I'd have to go back to blowing up trains in the Hijaz ...

Am I just indulging in magical thinking?

2018, when I retired. Not confident, exactly; but it seemed like I had enough, bolstered by SS, to leave my horrid minimum-wage job. I knew nothing about the 4% rule or anything; I just wanted so bad, at age 65, to be done!

Felt better last year when I submitted my portfolio to review here, bought an annuity to cover my monthly bills, and met with a CFP. Adjusted my AA from ~60/40 to ~50/50 along with a decent cash reserve, sleep pretty well.

If I won a few hundred thousand dollars in the lottery, I might feel more confident. But I don't play ...

Expert? An investor whose stock/bond/fund/whatever picks match their financial goals 100%.

EZ/PZ

climber2020 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:59 am
I thought the Bond Tent concept was debunked:

viewtopic.php?p=6474673#p6474673

Maybe statistically; but behaviour and temperament should be fully taken into account.

Aggressive 'til age 55 or so; slowly shift to conservative (build a 'bond tent') until retired (65?); endure Sequence of Returns Risk time zone; then at 75, shift to moderate.

lazydavid wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 1:22 am

Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Mon Jan 30, 2023 11:55 pm Machine coffee = active management

Pourover coffee = the index

I go with the index

So where do you slot automatic pourovers like my machine?

Leveraged index?

Machine coffee = active management

Pourover coffee = the index

I go with the index

Anybody else having difficulty accessing ChatGPT? ...

When I try and got to that web page, I get a fail message saying 'too many redirects'(?).

Why doesn't someone just ask Chatbot "What 10 stocks will outperform the S&P 500 in 2023?", buy them, and see how you do?

I'll stick with Wellington Management and the indexes, thanks.

I'm a big fan of BND (despite not owning it).

I check the S&P 500 and BND regularly, after the market closes; the movement of BND vs. S&P reassures me that balanced (60/40, 50/50, 40/60 whatever) is alive and well. The bond market is back to zigging when stocks are zagging, etc. ... all's well with the world!

I was also struck by Vanguard's forecast of bonds outperforming stocks over the next decade; thus, I'm in "no rebalancing!" mode for the foreseeable.

As additional fuel for palaver, here's Rob Berger's take on things (more understandable to simpletons like me). ERN articles give me a headache.

https://youtu.be/fNP62fSLg1U