Bogleheads.org

Well team MYGA, I may have just found the Achilles heel for California residents. Here is language from California Life & Health Insurance Guarantee Association : What kinds of plans, policies, and benefits are not protected by the California Life and Health Insurance Guarantee Association? Policies sold by insurers not licensed to do business in California; policies issued by medical, health, or dental care service corporations; managed care plans; self-insured employer plans; fraternal benefit society insurance certificates; policy benefits the insurer does not guarantee such as the non-guaranteed portion of a variable life insurance contract sold by prospectus, or benefits for which the individual policyholder has assumed the risk o...

But that's not what Buffet through Berkshire Hathaway is actually doing out here in the real world. He is absolutely holding bonds and cash, quite a bit of it in fact. From the 2022 financials they are holding 153,713M in cash and bonds(35,811M in cash). Equities is 308,793M, that's roughly a 70/30 mix between the two. This obviously skips over all the other assets BRK owns. If you add in all the other assets(skipping over goodwill and friends), then it's roughly an 80/20 AA, with 20% in bonds and cash and 80% in Physical Assets and equities. So, AOA/FFNOX/VASGX for the win? :) Note: Your Math May Vary: I used lazy napkin math, I was to lazy to double check it and I rounded to the nearest normal allocation. From the document: "We cont...

For more context, what Buffett was saying up to that point: it's a very strange situation that the federal reserve say our goal is two percent inflation and then have people buying uh if they buy the treasury bills it's one and a half percent and they pay tax on it so i mean they the government has announced to you that it doesn't pay to save you know they say if we can if we can run things the way we want to we're gonna have two percent inflation and if you get a nominal return of 2.8 or something you're going to pay some income tax on that you're going to have nothing in the way of more purchasing power by deferring consumption today well why do you defer consumption you you're hoping to have more consumption later on that's the reason f...

Pasadena would work for me too.

Car 1: 14-year old car with 130,000 miles on it purchased in 1983 for $275. Put 5,000 miles on it in one year. No major repairs. Sold it to a friend for $200.

Nothing else I have owned has come close to that it terms of depreciation cost per year ($75) or cost per mile (1.5 cents). Though, of course, in today's dollars, that $75 is approximately $225.

I posted this on another thread and thought it might be useful info related to this thread:
viewtopic.php?p=6974753#p6974753

My brother and I share quite a bit -- not down to the penny, but broadly speaking we know a lot about each other's salary, bonus, assets. My sisters much less so.

As for the kids, my wife and I have not shared much with them. I mean, they can look up the house on Zillow -- that alone will give them a good sense (we're in a VHCOL area). Plus, they know that we've never had a car loan, they know we don't qualify for financial aid, etc. So they would have to be obtuse to not have a good idea.

WolfgangPauli wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:46 am This is not sexy - no electric cars, fancy cloud computer etc. etc and certainly no bitcoin and gold. The closest he comes to sexy is his significant investment in Apple.

Just FYI, BH has ~$10 billion in Chinese electric car company BYD. BH has done very well with it, though Tesla has performed much better over the 15-ish year hold period so far.

hunoraut wrote: ↑Sun Feb 19, 2023 7:58 am And what happened to all the promising competitors (polestar, mach e, id3, id4, etc) is that they all got a big pop in sales at the start, but declined much more quickly.

Mach-e (which first went on sale in Dec. 2020 as a 2021 model) sales were up 45% in the U.S. in 2022. And January 2023 sales were up 11% over January 2022.

TheRealBadger wrote: ↑Sun Feb 19, 2023 10:13 am For DW and I:

- Invested in 401K at max rates since day 1. At avg age of 52, we now have $1.7M in our 401k plans.
- Live below our means, save what we can in addition
- Focus nearly all "investment" on career advancement. While always had good job, this has been a 1-earner household for nearly 2 decades. Onlyl "1%ers" the last few years

Doing that, we hit that number at our avg age of 48. That number has since nearly tripled.

Great advice. Just max your 401(k) every single year. The old "pay yourself first" approach. 30 and 40 years later, it adds up.

Regarding receipts, I'm new to HSAs, but I'm just keeping electronic copies of my EOBs (in a folder on OneDrive) so that I can withdraw cash years later, tax-free.

The ID4 Pro S AWD range is 255 miles. Also, it comes with 3 years of free charging at Electrify America.

Once a person has 35 years of paying the maximum social security tax, do additional years worked increase social security benefits at all?

hotajax wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 10:42 am If I can, I will.

Looks like your nonstop options out of PHL are London, Paris, Rome, Barcelona, Madrid, Lisbon, Athens, Amsterdam, Dublin, Berlin, Copenhagen, Vienna, Stockholm, Reykjavik, and Malaga.

If you're starting your trip in Hungary, you'd have to change planes somewhere.

Not a book, but Dan Carlin's podcast series, Supernova in the East, about Japan and the war in the Pacific, is excellent.

Yes, it's pointless. I went with the lifestyle creep approach. My only current (last few years) savings are tax advantaged (401(k) and HSA).

Okay - this is not a book. But If you ever listen to podcasts I highly recommend one called Hardcore History by Dan Carlin. His most recent series was a 6 part podcast on WW1. Each episode is 2-4 hours long and is very in depth and well done. And they are free (unless you choose to make a small donation). +1. Dan Carlin's Hard Core History stuff is always fascinating. I'm not a historian so I don't know how accurate his stuff is but it is extremely fascinating to listen to. His series on the eastern front of WWII was also fascinating. You can get it on iTunes here: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/dan-carlins-hardcore-history/id173001861?mt=2 The WW-1 series is called Blueprint for Armageddon You have to go to his own personal web site ...

hotajax wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 1:58 pm Headed to Hungary, Austria, Germany. Departing Phila, probably changing planes in New York center.
How do we keep cash for use in Europe, but avoid being a nice fat robbery target while in New York?
Lemme pick your brains.

You're departing PHL but changing planes in NY? That sounds unusual, given the <100 mile distance. Why wouldn't you just fly from PHL to Europe?

beernutz wrote: ↑Tue Feb 07, 2023 9:04 pm With the Old Breed: On Peleieu and Okanawa by Eugene Sledge
Devil at My Heels by Louie Zamperini

are by far my two favorite WW2 biographies

Unbroken: A World War II Story of Survival, Resilience, and Redemption by Laura Hillenbrand is Zamperini's story from an outsider's perspective.

I second these recommendations. Also suggest Helmet for my Pillow by Robert Leckie.

YTD: 9.29%

What percentage of Bogleheads don't own a watch? I don't.

TSLA up 50% in the past month. On the earnings call the company forecast 1.8 million vehicles this year. up 37% over 2022. No sizable auto company is growing like that.

I'm in an index investor, but what Tesla has accomplished as a company is mighty impressive.

AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:50 pm London, Copenhagen, Oslo are all lovely in the summer. So is northern Germany (North Sea, Baltic, Mecklenburg Lake District), Sweden. I’d argue it’s the only time to go there.

London really is lovely in the summer. Both weeks.

Our son has been accepted into an Ivy League school. The expenses are estimated to be $80,000 per year, with an additional 4% inflation each year. We saved up $100,000 in his 529 plan over the last couple of years. I had invested his money in a conservative portfolio, which unfortunately lost around 6% last year. He may also qualify for a loan of $15,000 per year. To cover the remaining costs, we will need to pay approximately $3,750 per month from my after-tax paycheck for the next four years. Would it be wise to invest his 529 plan money at this time or to continue making contributions to a conservative fund? Even conservative portfolios lost money last year. I am willing to take risks after my bad performance last year. Any ideas to imp...

Without checking, it's my guess that New England has the highest NG prices in the USA? Propane prices should be much more even between regions (cheaper in the Texas-OK-LA area, because that's where the main wells and refineries are)? Local factors probably quite important (competitiveness of suppliers, who owns the tank etc)? Pennsylvania is the second largest producer of natural gas, and natural gas liquids such as propane, after Texas. In fact, those two states are far ahead of the rest. The reason New England doesn't have ready access to this PA natural gas is due to a lack of pipelines. Top 4 producing states in 2021, and percentage of total U.S. production (Texas and Pennsylvania together are over 45% of U.S. production): Texas—8.50 T...

Is an $80k/year Ivy the only option? IMO a degree from an Ivy is impressive only if its with an appropriate major that will have the ROI from an IVY education and will benefit from the networking that comes from that school. Assuming that is the case, I would start dumping cash into a HY saving account and hold off on using the 529 in hopes of some recovery in the market for the latter years of expense. Its risk there will be some recovery, but since you will need money quickly I think the HY savings is you best option right now. Any major from an Ivy has the potential to have high ROI, indeed it is only at the top schools where that is the case. Lots of Ivy league philosophy majors making bank as lawyers, bankers, and management consultan...

Interesting that having the highest gross profit per vehicle provides a lot of competitive flexibility:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-pri ... lewebshare

muel87 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:52 am

keystone wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:21 pm

MI_bogle wrote:
If you deduct from payroll, you do not pay the nearly 8% FICA tax. A guaranteed return of about 8% is what you'd be missing out if you contributed outside of your payroll to lump sump invest

Unless your income puts you over the social security income cap, in which case your savings would be 1.45% in medicare tax.

Why would being over the cap eliminate your FICA tax savings on your first $160,000 of income? When you are over the cap, you just stop paying more tax, but the first $160k is still taxed at 6.2%.

Just by way of example, if you are making $200,000, you are paying the max social security tax, regardless of an HSA.

There's even old and aggressive folks on here:
viewtopic.php?t=305442

In terms of where (or in what currency to invest, and with the usual caveats of past performance being no guarantee of future results, how do you feel about the rand vs the dollar over the ensuing decades? That past performance (Mat 1995 3.58 rand to the dollar) to now (17.05 rand to the dollar) is pretty dismal for the rand.

Glockenspiel wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:19 pm

runner3081 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:17 pm Can you afford it? Probably.

Is it something I would due to my own finances? Heck no. Way too high.

Welp, we bought the house for $745k in December 2021. It's been a more than comfortable monthly payment of $2,400/month, it's worth around $900-$950k now, and our net worth is now around $1.9 million at age 38, with about $350k in annual income.

Congrats! It was clearly the right move.

It appears that the new credit may be available to lessees regardless of AGI. I've never leased a car, but it might be worth it in this case. Also, regarding a few of the above comments, Tesla certainly has the most extensive charging system. But (after owning a Model S for 3.5 years) I own a Mach-e now, and over the holidays I took it on an 1100-mile trip and used the Electrify America network with no problem whatsoever. I'm in California, so it may be that the network is built out here more than other parts of the country. But the idea that you'll only be able to drive locally if you buy a non-Tesla is not true in my opinion. Why did you transition from Tesla to Mach-E? PS I enjoy reading your posts (including on the recent retire early ...

It appears that the new credit may be available to lessees regardless of AGI. I've never leased a car, but it might be worth it in this case. Also, regarding a few of the above comments, Tesla certainly has the most extensive charging system. But (after owning a Model S for 3.5 years) I own a Mach-e now, and over the holidays I took it on an 1100-mile trip and used the Electrify America network with no problem whatsoever. I'm in California, so it may be that the network is built out here more than other parts of the country. But the idea that you'll only be able to drive locally if you buy a non-Tesla is not true in my opinion. Why did you transition from Tesla to Mach-E? PS I enjoy reading your posts (including on the recent retire early ...

It appears that the new credit may be available to lessees regardless of AGI. I've never leased a car, but it might be worth it in this case.

Also, regarding a few of the above comments, Tesla certainly has the most extensive charging system. But (after owning a Model S for 3.5 years) I own a Mach-e now, and over the holidays I took it on an 1100-mile trip and used the Electrify America network with no problem whatsoever. I'm in California, so it may be that the network is built out here more than other parts of the country. But the idea that you'll only be able to drive locally if you buy a non-Tesla is not true in my opinion.

If I quit my job today, my ability to take, oh, I don't know, a month-long international vacation, would only be slightly increased. We have kids at home (and even when school is out of session, they have activities that they don't want to give up). On the other hand, if they'll just agree to drop out of high school . . .

Good morning from Europe, I just came across an interesting diagram that shows the income distribution in various countries. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/charting-income-distributions-worldwide/ The diagram confirms that the top 5% earners in the US have by far the highest salaries. The top 1% is >350KUSD while in for example the UK the top 1% is at ca. 160 KUSD. It confirmes to be that the income distribution in the US is more skewed that in Europe. With my last years pay of ca. 150 KUSD total comp, I should be in the top 5% for most countries and in the top 3-4% in Europe. It comes back to the point that many of you mentioned, that you compare yourself to a tiny fraction of high earners on this forum or in your social bubble. It a...

SFO: Serious Fraud Office

That name has always struck me as amusing. As if there is a separate Playful Fraud Office or Flippant Fraud Office that handles the more lighthearted frauds.

What I don't understand is the idea if you have a job you don't have any time to pursue any other interests or hobbies. There are 168 hours in a week. If you sleep 8 hours per night, that leaves 112. If you work 80 hours per week in BigLaw or investment banking or are traveling 150,000 miles per year for work, sure, your waking hours are fully occupied by work. But not everyone is in that boat. My job takes on average 35 hours per week. That estimate is probably a little high -- the majority of weeks are more like 25-30, and then there are about 8 or so weeks that are 40-45. I go into the office 1 or 2 days per month. So virtually no commuting time. Last year I took two brief (2 days) domestic business trips, and one long (one week) interna...

Vanguard account up 5.65% YTD. Good couple weeks.

RJC wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 8:50 am $102 and falling... How low will it go?

Up 20% in a week, not too shabby.

I can understand continuing to work but personally I want to increase X so I never get to 50X. No one gets a gold medal for dying with say 100X. To me, might as well live and/or give a little while we're alive if people are that fortunate to get beyond 50X. Same here. As my wealth grows so does my X. I doubt I will ever hit 50X because X keeps increasing. I can comfortably retire today, but still make good money part time. I hope that I can continue like this for another 2, 5, 10, 20 years. I guess maybe if I can do this for 20 more years I may get to 50X, but more than likely I will find more ways to spend that brings us joy. I have no interest dying with 50x or 100x to distribute to my loved ones. Wait, I thought that was the dreaded hed...

I can understand continuing to work but personally I want to increase X so I never get to 50X. No one gets a gold medal for dying with say 100X. To me, might as well live and/or give a little while we're alive if people are that fortunate to get beyond 50X. Same here. As my wealth grows so does my X. I doubt I will ever hit 50X because X keeps increasing. I can comfortably retire today, but still make good money part time. I hope that I can continue like this for another 2, 5, 10, 20 years. I guess maybe if I can do this for 20 more years I may get to 50X, but more than likely I will find more ways to spend that brings us joy. I have no interest dying with 50x or 100x to distribute to my loved ones. Wait, I thought that was the dreaded hed...

Based on todays CPI-U release, the I-Bond inflation rate would project to be 0.36% when the rate changes in April. We won't know the actual number for two more months but its probably not going to change that much from today. Of course the 6.89% is in effect for bonds purchased through the end of March. My own table says the inflation rate would be 0.00% (-0.0074% when taking out two extra digits of significance than Treasury uses for iBond rates) if the CPI is the same for March as today's released December CPI. I do see 0.36% as the December over June number but that's not relevant for iBonds which use the March over September and September over March CPI numbers. And anyone looking to sell I-Bonds that have been held less than 5 years s...

For me, one of the biggest reasons is that my children are still in high school. This has at least two sub-reasons: 1) I want to be abound them and would not want to leave them at home at this age without us parents around. Therefore, things like long trips are out of the question. (I also think they need to work in the summer.) 2) I think it is important for them to see me working, getting up and out every morning, even when its unpleasant. They will never see how much we scrambled and saved in our 20s and 30s.....they only see us when we have had a fair amount of career success. I think its important for them to see what work looks like and at least hear stories of when we were just starting out in apartments, used cars, cheap vacations,...

4/ you enjoy your job and it doesn't take too much time (<40 hours per week), leaving plenty of time for other things you enjoy

https://www.wsj.com/articles/european-s ... 1673360451?

Excerpt: "Often considered laggards on the global markets stage, stock indexes across the European region in recent months have outperformed. Germany’s DAX index and France’s CAC 40 have each risen 18% or more in the past three months through Tuesday, more than double the 8.5% gain for the S&P 500. The U.K.’s benchmark FTSE 100 has also surged, putting it a little more than 2% away from reaching a record high."

genuine question, why is it top 14 and not top 10 or top 20? also didnt some schools (harvard?) say they were going to stop cooperating with us news? 1. Historically those top 14 schools have ALWAYS been in the top 14 for pretty much the history of the list, and while schools slide in and out of the top 10, those 14 have remained very consistent. So you can safely describe Cornell as a top law school even though it may have slipped to 12. Is it arbitrary? Yes. 2. Yes. Then U.S. News changed a bunch of its factors to try to placate the schools. I'm not sure where they've landed at this precise moment. It's an interesting dance, and one that the Harvards of the world can take the lead on. Meanwhile, schools ranked from 100-25 have essentiall...

I’m a long-time attorney. I don’t have a source to cite, but throughout my career I’ve seen multiple studies where approximately 70% of practicing attorneys wish they had done a different career. But perhaps other fields are similar these days. I certainly wouldn’t take on a bunch of debt to go to law school. I have heard of this as well and we've discussed it. Hindsight is always 20/20, not sure what the answer is on how to best provide guidance when you have a child who is very mature, hard working, disciplined and they say that's what they want to do. She will not have any debt from law school. Other thing to be aware of is lots of people will say a J.D. is a versatile degree and it also opens doors to lots of careers not requiring a la...

Like many posters, I graduated from one of those schools and worked in BigLaw. FWIW, Columbia used to "discount" GPA for applicants who were 3 or more years out of college. In other words, it still mattered, but less than it did for recent grads. Others factors -- including, of course, LSAT -- mattered more. Not sure if Columbia still follows that practice. If so, and if she can get her LSAT into the upper 170s, that would help. My brother graduated from a local school and in his school's case, the most prestigious BigLaw firm in the area would only interview applicants from his school who were in the top 10% of their class. He just made barely the 10% cutoff, aced the interview, and has gone on to have a great career. My and my b...

I bought a new Tesla Model S for just over $80k in 2018 (but got $7500 back from the Feds, so $73k net). Had an 82-mile commute, roundtrip. Drove it for 3.5 years, put 80k miles on it. Saved thousands on gas. No maintenance costs. Car was totaled when t-boned by an inattentive driver. Got $62k from insurance. Would a Corolla have been cheaper? Perhaps. But I was very happy to be in a safe car when I was t-boned.