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by Erwin
Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF - thoughts?
Replies: 32
Views: 3539

Re: ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF - thoughts?

Most Bogleheads invest in the total market and there is a good reason for that. The following article by John Norstad, although old, does an excellent job explaining why:
http://www.norstad.org/finance/total.html
by Erwin
Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 114
Views: 11587

Re: Does anyone own gold?

rgs92 wrote:A bit of the Gold ETF I think is fine as an asset that is uncorrelated with stocks or bonds, but the Permanent Portfolio is 25% in gold, and that's extreme IMHO.


Yet, no one can complain about its historical performance
by Erwin
Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 114
Views: 11587

Re: Does anyone own gold?

Does anyone own gold, and why? Evanson, a passive investment management company in NorthEran California has a long and highly positive article on gold, see.. m It is a bit of a sidetrack but the article starts with a claim that is...not true. In 1913 the Federal Reserve was created to deal with pri...
by Erwin
Wed Feb 22, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 114
Views: 11587

Does anyone own gold?

Does anyone own gold, and why?
Evanson, a passive investment management company in NorthEran California has a long and highly positive article on gold, see..
https://www.evansonasset.com/64.htm
by Erwin
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25193

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

My view is that valuations matter and matter a lot. I have not heard anyone dispute that. Given that I think that no one can doubt that valuations of the US stock market are presently high relative to historical. Let us see: Major US equity indexes have risen about 250% since the March 2009 lows whi...
by Erwin
Mon Feb 20, 2017 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Live off portfolio NOW (non US)
Replies: 48
Views: 6933

Re: Live off portfolio NOW (non US)

galeno wrote:Start your reading here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Outline ... _domiciles


Galeno,
Do you know how the us taxes the accummuling Irish ETFs? Does it take the 15% on dividends although they are reinvested? If yes, does ishares, vanguard adjust the cost of the etf due to the 15% loss?
by Erwin
Mon Feb 20, 2017 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When do you need an annuity?.
Replies: 25
Views: 3078

Re: When do you need an annuity?.

Would it be fair to say that if you can turn your Ira money into a ladder of annual TIPS, say for 30 retirement years, that along with SS and whatever pensions you have, meet your annual expenses and still have a bit more in the stock market to cover the potential that you live more than 30 retireme...
by Erwin
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When do you need an annuity?.
Replies: 25
Views: 3078

When do you need an annuity?.

In today's NYT. Strategies to make your money last before you go. m Nobody can predict how long they will live, but there are sound financial strategies for increasing the odds of a successful retirement plan. ------ My question is: it is hard to let go of money to purchase an annuity, at least to m...
by Erwin
Sat Feb 18, 2017 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 99
Views: 16759

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Hail Bogleheads, I don't post much, but follow these boards very closely, and was quite intrigued to read of the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio mentioned by @Tyler9000 in this thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=171019#p2811808 (Original description and analysis of the ...
by Erwin
Sat Feb 18, 2017 1:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "With $15 Left in the Bank, a Baby Boomer Makes Peace With Less" -- A cautionary tale
Replies: 37
Views: 5595

Re: "With $15 Left in the Bank, a Baby Boomer Makes Peace With Less" -- A cautionary tale

My parents, holocaust survivors, fearful of running out of money, although they worked hard and accumulated plenty, lived an extremely simple life, never allowed themselves any luxuries, died leaving their two sons most of their wealth. Does that make sense? There is nothing wrong with being a big s...
by Erwin
Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice Please - Am I Doing This Right or Do I Need an Advisor Like All My Friends?
Replies: 20
Views: 2827

Re: Advice Please - Am I Doing This Right or Do I Need an Adviser Like All My Friends?

Simplify your life. Among all the funds you list, look for those that best resemble the popular three fund portfolio (google it), then decide the split between them, mainly based on risk, and you have a portfolio that you can keep forever. Anything more complicated is unnecessary.
by Erwin
Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why own individual stocks?
Replies: 88
Views: 8326

Re: Why own individual stocks?

I've heard people like to use them to brag at cocktail parties. For what it's worth, I've been to a lot of cocktail parties and I've never heard anyone talk about individual stocks at one. People at cocktail parties are usually normal, decent humans and talk about their kids or the latest movie or ...
by Erwin
Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WSJ Digital Subscription - a bargain!
Replies: 75
Views: 18593

Re: WSJ Digital Subscription - a bargain!

I just subscribed to the digital version of the WSJ through an agency, Daily Subscription Agency (m). I paid $139.99 for two years, an absolute bargain. Since I was very fearful that it may be a fraud, I used my PayPal, which supposedly protects me. About 12 hours later I got the details on how to ...
by Erwin
Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WSJ Digital Subscription - a bargain!
Replies: 75
Views: 18593

Re: WSJ Digital Subscription - a bargain!

I pay full price (I think) for my NYT digital subscription, $20/month, but cannot see anything wrong with getting the best possible deal on the WSJ, if it is legit. That to me is the American way.
by Erwin
Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WSJ Digital Subscription - a bargain!
Replies: 75
Views: 18593

WSJ Digital Subscription - a bargain!

I just subscribed to the digital version of the WSJ through an agency, Daily Subscription Agency (m). I paid $139.99 for two years, an absolute bargain. Since I was very fearful that it may be a fraud, I used my PayPal, which supposedly protects me. About 12 hours later I got the details on how to l...
by Erwin
Sun Feb 05, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken's future direction - a cause for concern
Replies: 471
Views: 58196

Re: Quicken's future direction - a cause for concern

Can you not use Quicken for perpetuity if you enter the data manually?
by Erwin
Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you account for likely life expectancy in retirement?
Replies: 63
Views: 5745

Re: Do you account for likely life expectancy in retirement?

I come from a family of people that did not reach 80. When came time to consider when to begin SS benefits, I did not think twice about starting at 62. Further, my portfolio is most likely more conservative than most at my age, simply because I do not expect that my retirement would last 30 years.
by Erwin
Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 360
Views: 34922

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

I assume that you want a higher allocation of equities because you expect better performance than bonds. However, have you given any thought that there is a decent possibility that the price you pay in higher volatility will not yield the fruits you expect. You may need the money at the wrong time, ...
by Erwin
Sun Feb 05, 2017 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should retirees build a reserve for RMDs?
Replies: 16
Views: 2744

Re: Should retirees build a reserve for RMDs?

... Why a TIPS ladder with positive real yields will not do it? It is the most common LDI strategy tool. A TIPS ladder, that is a portfolio of TIPS with different maturities, will have its market value fluctuate just the same as if it were held through a financial intermediary like a fund. If you'r...
by Erwin
Sun Feb 05, 2017 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 360
Views: 34922

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

For me, and I assume for most, the goal of investing is not to make money but to fulfill whatever needs and desires one has. Following this logic, the issue is not whatever one can withstand this or that volatility, but rather how much risk one should take to meet the goals, and that should define t...
by Erwin
Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should retirees build a reserve for RMDs?
Replies: 16
Views: 2744

Re: Should retirees build a reserve for RMDs?

... If you're really unsure about it, just take the amount you would have put into cash into VISPX or directly into TIPS . At least then your cash won't be losing 1-3% each year while you're waiting for RMDs. It is not at all clear that Vanguard's Inflation-Protected Securities Fund , VIPSX , with ...
by Erwin
Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ratio: Pain of Loss v. Happiness of Equal Size Gain
Replies: 22
Views: 1800

Re: Ratio: Pain of Loss v. Happiness of Equal Size Gain

I am retired, and my view is that if I were to make another $1m, it would not change my life style, but if I were to lose $1m, it would really make a difference. Therefore, I am extremely careful not to take too much risk!
by Erwin
Fri Feb 03, 2017 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Protecting a sizable amount of capital for 10 years.
Replies: 16
Views: 2311

Re: Protecting a sizable amount of capital for 10 years.

"Protect capital in the safest possible way" would indicate to me an investment in which the principal is guaranteed safe in the absence of complete societal collapse, such as FDIC-insured CDs, savings accounts, money market accounts or bonds issued and backed by the Federal government. I...
by Erwin
Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Protecting a sizable amount of capital for 10 years.
Replies: 16
Views: 2311

Re: Protecting a sizable amount of capital for 10 years.

"Protect capital in the safest possible way" would indicate to me an investment in which the principal is guaranteed safe in the absence of complete societal collapse, such as FDIC-insured CDs, savings accounts, money market accounts or bonds issued and backed by the Federal government. I...
by Erwin
Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Protecting a sizable amount of capital for 10 years.
Replies: 16
Views: 2311

Protecting a sizable amount of capital for 10 years.

I wrote a while back about a goal to protect capital not needed until year 10 in the safest possible way. After much review and consultation I am leaning in the direction of splitting the funds, a very sizable amount (all tax protected), into two parts: A. 80% in a 5 years TIPS ladder from year 5 to...
by Erwin
Wed Feb 01, 2017 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS for European Investors
Replies: 5
Views: 532

Re: TIPS for European Investors

TIPS are great to cover future expenses since they protect against inflation. If you are retired or have a liability that you need to take care in the future, fine, but otherwise, i would diversify. Further, in today's environment TIPS only begin giving real yield at year 5, meaning, if you buy TIPS...
by Erwin
Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice for 50yr horizon with $3M
Replies: 11
Views: 1870

Re: Portfolio Advice for 50yr horizon with $3M

I am retired and unfortunately when I was your age there was no internet or bogleheads, so did not have access to the sort of advice you can get now. I have been migrating slowly to simplicity with a portfolio of very few funds that I feel very comfortable. I doubt that age may have made a different...
by Erwin
Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to Deviate from the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 36
Views: 4538

Re: Reasons to Deviate from the Global Market Portfolio

There are many articles that discuss the topic, and at least a book, Global Asset Allocation, by Mabene Faber, which I highly recommend.
In essence one can just invest in the global market, plus cash (or leveraging) to calibrate personal risk tolerance/requirements.
by Erwin
Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypo: What would you do if you were SURE of impending deline in markets
Replies: 62
Views: 5178

Re: Hypo: What would you do if you were SURE of impending deline in markets

I know that it is not a matter of if, but when. And that is true at all times for some markets. Given that, from the very start I build a global equity portfolio hoping to soften the blow.
by Erwin
Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: U.S. brokerages and retiring abroad
Replies: 24
Views: 2553

Re: U.S. brokerages and retiring abroad

I hold a Fidelity account and live overseas. I opened the account many years ago when I lived in LA and since I moved overseas, with the full knowledge of Fidelity since they have my address, I faced out all mutual funds and only deal with ETFs. Since I am a passive investor and only hold indexes, ...
by Erwin
Sat Jan 21, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: U.S. brokerages and retiring abroad
Replies: 24
Views: 2553

Re: U.S. brokerages and retiring abroad

I hold a Fidelity account and live overseas. I opened the account many years ago when I lived in LA and since I moved overseas, with the full knowledge of Fidelity since they have my address, I faced out all mutual funds and only deal with ETFs. Since I am a passive investor and only hold indexes, t...
by Erwin
Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not put it all in TIPS?
Replies: 87
Views: 6081

Re: Why not put it all in TIPS?

I think that if you have acquired enough (the meaning of enough is very personal), my absolutely right strategy is capital preservation ("stop playing, if you have already won the game"). Given that, a portfolio holding 80% in a TIPS ladder (if the funds are tax protected, and if not in a ...
by Erwin
Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space
Replies: 59
Views: 4286

Re: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space

That is the reason that it is better to own an ETF that holds a basket of maturity defined corporate bonds, like the iShares iBonds series. They are held to maturity.
by Erwin
Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How would a preservation of capital portfolio look like?
Replies: 8
Views: 1108

Re: How would a preservation of capital portfolio look like?

Please clarify. Do in laws want to preserve capital after inflation and after tax? Or are they concerned only with preserving the nominal value of the investment after taxes? Are they willing to accept short- or medium-term volatility as long as capital is preserved over the next X years? Or must t...
by Erwin
Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How would a preservation of capital portfolio look like?
Replies: 8
Views: 1108

How would a preservation of capital portfolio look like?

As a result of the sale of substantial real estate property (in the seven figures), my in laws, who are already in their 80s are asking for help in developing a portfolio that can preserve capital after tax (25%) . Most likely these funds will never be spent by the in laws, but rather, per their wis...
by Erwin
Thu Jan 12, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: downhill skiing
Replies: 32
Views: 2694

Re: downhill skiing

I am 68, ski every year. I just spent a small fortune upgrading my ski equipment, including a very light Columbia Titanium jacket. In 10 days I will spend 1 week skiing in Maribel, France.
by Erwin
Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 9573

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

A challenge is we do not really know how TIPS would have done. We do know that TIPS can have negative real yield. We do not know how far negative the rates might go. I certainly hope they would have done better than nominal bonds, and I expect they would have, but I do not know that to be true and ...
by Erwin
Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 9573

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

A challenge is we do not really know how TIPS would have done. We do know that TIPS can have negative real yield. We do not know how far negative the rates might go. I certainly hope they would have done better than nominal bonds, and I expect they would have, but I do not know that to be true and ...
by Erwin
Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 9573

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

I am prety sure that we are in for a long term of pitiful bond performance, most likely in the years. If I were in the accumulation phase I would take Malkier's advice seriuosly. But I am retired and the other options (besides bonds) are not better. To protect myself I have implemented a liability d...
by Erwin
Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Corporate Bond VCIT Correction
Replies: 10
Views: 1549

Re: VANGUARD LONG-TERM CORPORATE BOND VCLT

The duration of this fund is a bit over 13 years, are you committed to hold this fund for that long? For each 1% increase in interest rates, this fund with lose about 13% in value. Eventually, and because of increased dividends, it will return the initial yield. If you want to add corporate to the m...
by Erwin
Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 11051

Re: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?

Bogleheads, In my opinion, if 100% allocation to TIPS was a wise investment strategy, I would expect Vanguard investment experts to recommend this approach in research and also structure the Target and LifeStrategy funds with this allocation. DFA does in their retirement funds. There was a long and...
by Erwin
Fri Dec 30, 2016 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 11051

Re: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?

ogd - while all of your points appear quite accurate and useful in the broader discussion, they are irrelevant to the scenario that I described (i.e. held to maturity without concern for lost opportunity). Firechief: I am disputing the very framing you described, specifically the "without conc...
by Erwin
Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are International Markets overdue for great gains?
Replies: 43
Views: 4041

Re: Are International Markets overdue for great gains?

If you believe that valuations are important, currently the US market PE10 is very high relative to history while international stocks are just the opposite, specially emerging markets. This would indicate that international markets are due for higher performance than US markets, which have been shi...
by Erwin
Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 11051

Re: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?

Who cares a drop before maturity! I suggest that you look at a bond ladder differently. Always keep them to maturity and either use to meet obligations (like in retirement) or continues the ladder by buying the year after the end of it. I would suggest that most of the 52 distinct TIPS mutual fund ...
by Erwin
Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 11051

Re: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?

I could care less about "volatility" in TIPS prices. I buy them to recoup my full purchasing power when they mature. Who gives a hoot about what they are worth in the interim? If I want risk/reward I put the next dollar in equities. If I want money to pay the rent 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 ye...
by Erwin
Fri Dec 30, 2016 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Multi Millionaire with no credit rating
Replies: 52
Views: 6066

Re: Multi Millionaire with no credit rating

A few months ago I was refused a PenFed Visa credit Card twice. I thought that it was absurd given my financial situation, but I understood the reason. I pay in cash or using my Fidelity debit card. But when I travel, I feel that I may be a bit more protected using a regular CC. So, I wrote to the C...
by Erwin
Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 11051

Re: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?

Also TIPS did not hold value in the financial crisis. This has been attributed to Lehman Brothers. Do you have liquidity concerns in terms of TIPS? YES Our Treasury ladder was 100% TIPS in spring of '08. Our 100% perfectly safe, governmentt backed, inflation protected asset lost some 20% which we h...
by Erwin
Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 11051

Re: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?

I could care less about "volatility" in TIPS prices.... If I want money to pay the rent 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 years in the future, I buy TIPS. CPI-E is the inflation rate calculated by the US govt for the average retiree. TIPs are indexed to CPI-U. Housing has a higher weighting in CPI-E ...
by Erwin
Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing US equity allocation, increasing EMs
Replies: 7
Views: 932

Re: Reducing US equity allocation, increasing EMs

MossySF wrote:My opinion is that it's ok to make a tactical allocation change. Just don't go overboard and do it in steps.


Why? Is your advise based on technical reasons?
by Erwin
Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing US equity allocation, increasing EMs
Replies: 7
Views: 932

Re: Reducing US equity allocation, increasing EMs

I own plenty of EM, but I don't know what it will do in 2017. You shouldn't jump in to EM just because you find it cheap right now. It can get even cheaper and if you don't have conviction, you will make a behavioral mistake. Buy EM because you think it's a good long-term investment. I now own abou...