Bogleheads.org

simplesimon wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 11:09 am

TomatoTomahto wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 7:24 am My favorite quote:

He earned about $50,000 a year from his factory job and always aimed to save at least 20% of his income, largely by keeping his expenses low. He wears his clothes for decades and rarely purchases new ones, though he treated himself to some new socks last July.

“I get buyer’s remorse real quick,” he said.

Must be a BH

Interesting to see the person with the largest assets has the smallest expenditures, is single, and is not collecting SS yet. He could afford to really let it rip! (also probably like many BH's)

He will probably have $2 million in 10 years.

Supergrover wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 6:25 am One of the retirees took 600K out of his retirement funds to buy 6 low income, section 8 type housing that generates $80K a year in income. He left his savings pretty thin.

What’s your thoughts on that strategy?

Being a landlord is very risky. He seems to be doing it with a mission focus, but he could be helping the poor in ways that would not put him on the edge.

WhiteMaxima wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 5:10 pm 12% stable value fund (cash +short term bond)
12% bond index fund
12% real asset (tip and inflation protection asset)
18% balanced fund (60% equity 40% bond)
18% SPY500 index
18% Intl index
8% Russel 2000 index
2% company stock

Nothing to criticize. You don't explain your goals or why you chose it, but as long as you aren't paying high fees (over 0.5%) then you are fine.

deltaneutral83 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:52 am
I'll have to watch this part, highly unlikely Ramsey would endorse full fledge scam artists. In fact I've known a person who use TSET to get out of one and it went fine. Perhaps there is additional info.

Except that Dave Ramsey IS a scam artist. Don't get credit cards, get my Gazelle high fee debit card. Don't get a credit score, get underwriting from my trusted mortgage lender. Don't invest in index funds, buy good growth mutual funds with 5% front end loads and high fees from one of my trusted advisor networks. His baby steps are just common sense and the rest is just scamming the gullible.

This crosses Personal Finance and Personal Consumer Issues, but I recommend the recent segment from Last Week Tonight on timeshares and timeshare "exit" scams (warning: some salty language): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bd2bbHoVQSM I've seen a number of threads on these issues before, but this is an eye-opening watch. It's worth the 25 minutes, including for the absolute evisceration of Dave Ramsey and his endorsement of a timeshare exit company which later turned out to be a total scam (and then his bizarre doubling down). I had actually seen that endorsement mentioned in a few bogleheads threads. I absolutely loved it. Dave Ramsey is the worst kind of person, like other fake gurus. My list of pariah financial "experts&q...

CPA_RIA wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 11:29 am I received a call yesterday from a gentleman at Gulf Coast Western offering an opportunity to invest in an oil well. They specialize in exploration and development of domestic oil and gas reserves. Currently partnership opportunity is for 4 wells in Colorado. Minimum $50k.

My interest is strictly academic at this point but has anyone ever heard of this entity? Has anyone on here ever ventured into a partnership opportunity like this? If so, how was your experience?

Sounds like a scam.

Fremdon Ferndock wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 5:15 pm My father was a strong introvert and my mother was one of the most successful extraverts of all time who made friends wherever she went. He lived to 65 and my mother just passed away at 105.

Yeah, but was she better off because of it?

racy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 2:43 pm I've been investing for 46 years in equities. It's been a 'stay the course' journey which has worked. So, I intend to stay invested in equities forever and keep dancing with the one that brought me.

So you don't regret not loading up on 15% to 20% government bonds in the late 1970s and early 1980s?

Pittsburgh is a shorter drive. City campus vs. college town? Did he get into Honors college? He got into Pitt Honor's college. It gives him a great dorm, early class registration. Special honors classes. He didn't get into the Honor's college at Purdue. He is split between a bigger city and seeing the midwest. We have visited both and he is liking both a lot. We want him to go where he wants to go and we all wanted some input on college reputation. How hard are internships to get in Indiana (2.5 hrs south of Chicago) vs being in Pitt. How much the recruiters visit Purdue vs Pitt. Pricing isn't playing into the equation given we can cover both so it is really about wanting personal knowledge of both or the industry. Degree and career wise, ...

MMiroir wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 10:35 am According to College Scorecard, the following are median starting salaries for CS majors at both schools:

Purdue - $94,727
Pitt - $76,432

That is a pretty significant difference. Unless there is some other strong preference for Pitt, Purdue is the obvious choice based on outcomes alone.

College Scoreboard could also be considered "CS" LOL.

Weathering wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 5:37 pm How about the preferred shares of regional banks? Who is the target audience buying them?
I see the senior unsecured bonds of regional banks are back to normal (5%) range (except for very short duration). However, the preferred shares (subordinate to senior unsecured bonds) are still falling off a cliff with the common shares.

They would be safer than common shares, but still likely to get wiped out in an SVB style rout.

Also, they could suspend the dividends at any time.

FRC bonds traded at a new low today of 50 cents on the dollar, but that is still only a 10% yield. Hardly worth it given the risk of default. I might take a chance at 20% yield.

I don’t see the difference of being covered by each bank up to the FDIC limit by having accounts at multiple banks. If one has 250k at each of the banks then they are insured to 3.25M (edit corrected). I don’t get it. Any ideas? The difference is that you're not manually managing 8 individual bank accounts. You get one account from SoFi with the aggregated balance available to spend. The $2M limit is probably because they're limiting you to 8 "subaccounts" for whatever reason. You could easily do the same by buying brokered CDs from 8 different banks. Those aren't demand deposits. Getting access to the cash early means selling the CDs on the secondary market. Also, the interest isn't compounded, but rather paid into the settlemen...

Unless the circumstances are very unusual, you and your wife didn’t receive an inheritance from her father. Your wife received the inheritance. So the money should be kept in her name. Or, if you both agree to invest in 529s for your children then she should be the account trustee. It’s fine to do planning including the inheritance as part of your joint portfolio and therefore as part of your overall asset allocation. As you’ve already noted, her wishes on the specifics of how the inheritance should be invested should be honored. But the money is legally hers and shouldn’t be commingled with your joint assets. That’s the advice she’d receive from any estate attorney with her best interests in mind. If that is the case, then that nixes my i...

There is a good chance your children will come back to the US for college, given that it attracts top students from all over the world, including Japan. You could put 30% in a brokerage in an index fund (VT) and the invest the rest in treasuries of various maturities. Put $40,000 each year into savings bonds (in your names, not the kids), although if your wife is not a dual citizen, then you would be limited to $20,000 each year (EE and I) total. Assuming it is $20,000, you want to make sure that the treasuries mature at least $20,000 each year. These savings bonds could then be used tax free for your kids' educations, assuming you meet the income threshold, since I think there is an income cap for converting these to education savings acco...

exodusNH wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 2:44 pm

Agent 99 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 2:39 pm I don’t see the difference of being covered by each bank up to the FDIC limit by having accounts at multiple banks. If one has 250k at each of the banks then they are insured to 3.25M (edit corrected). I don’t get it. Any ideas?

The difference is that you're not manually managing 8 individual bank accounts. You get one account from SoFi with the aggregated balance available to spend.

The $2M limit is probably because they're limiting you to 8 "subaccounts" for whatever reason.

You could easily do the same by buying brokered CDs from 8 different banks.

VictoriaF wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 12:47 pm I was pleased that Bill Bernstein was citing Keith Stanovich, the original creator of the dual-system concept, rather than Daniel Kahneman who has popularized it in "Thinking, Fast and Slow." As Bill was also citing Warren Buffett about the limit of IQ differences in investing, I pulled out my copy of "What intelligence tests miss: The Psychology of rational thought" by Keith E. Stanovich.
Victoria

I see that all the time. It bugs me to no end when I hear people say how Jack Bogle invented the index fund, when in fact, he popularized it.

TinyHouse: When I started investing in 1950 the S&P stocks were priced at 20 . Today the S&P stock index is 3,985 . History tells us that those of us who stay invested in the stock market through thick and thin will prevail. Currently, stocks are on-sale. Stay the course. Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Put money in a stock market index fund and you balance it out with some bonds, depending on age and so on, and don’t look at it for 50 years. But when you retire, open the envelope. Be sure a doctor is nearby to revive you. You’ll go into a dead faint; you won’t believe there’s that much money in the world.” The Shiller PE ratio is twice the historic average and guaranteed investments like CDs are paying over 5%. I am not...

The focus should also be on bank ownership. A properly incentivized shareholder with a financial interest in a bank should IMO be a better administrator than any bank examiner or regulator with no money at risk. A shareholder base concerned about its investments would have been more tuned to the risks in SVB’s portfolio and could have forced changes to their balance sheet before it was too late. The problem is that a shareholder's downside is limited to their investment while the upside is unlimited. It can make sense from a shareholder's point of view to take a very large degree of risk, because that substantially increases the upside without changing the downside. In addition, since the government has at least implicitly promised not to ...

macobow wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 12:44 pm I have had this money market account for quite some time. Now it pays 1.87 APY. I want to put at least $10K into high yield savings. Considering current noise about banking turmoil..... what about UFB Direct preferred savings at 5.02 APY or Salem Five Direct E-one at 4.1 APY? Both are FDIC insured. Would this be a good move on my part or bad? I guess it's a no brainer but i'm not entirely sure.

Yes, it is a no-brainer!

I don't understand why anyone still has money in low yield savings accounts. Both alternatives are fine. There are many places offering HYSA and CDs over 5% now and almost all of them are FDIC insured.

Ed 2 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 22, 2023 2:47 pm Just looking for new posts about “beating the market “ by tilting to small cap value. Hello? Anybody home?

Try this thread.
viewtopic.php?t=346206

For tax planning purposes, you should have at least two - traditional and Roth.

captmorgan50 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:03 pm • Rarely will it be the most difficult of all answers---“I don’t know.”

That's the quickest way to ensure that you will never be called to appear on CNBC or Bloomberg ever again.

boglebrook wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:55 am Hi All - I have a First Republic 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 3.3%, but the original terms include several discounts - 0.4% Core Relationship, 0.1% for using online bill pay, and 1% for having a checking account at First Republic. In the case that First Republic goes out of business, what happens to these discounts? Is there a chance that my rates would change somehow?

I had an ARM with the option to lock in rates for another 5 years on the reset date instead of floating, but when it was sold to another servicer, they did not honor that option. I ended up paying it off, but it seems that not all the loan benefits transfer to new servicers.

Keynes making the case for passive index investing before it was a thing. Taken from a recent NY Times opinion piece. Picking stocks, he wrote, was akin to a game “in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from 100 photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole: so that each competitor has to pick, not those faces that he himself finds prettiest, but those that he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors, all of whom are looking at the problem from the same point of view.” Indexing was known to be superior long before it existed. The MIT fund from the 1920s sought to match the Dow Jones index as ...

Weathering wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 4:22 pm Did Saudi Arabia just lose lots of $ on CS, or are they staying invested somehow with UBS?

They lost 90% of the their investment. That is not recoverable.

rkhusky wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:14 pm

Harmanic wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:03 pm
Apparently the Reddit crowd got it right, but Bogleheads refused to believe it.

Has CS collapsed? I thought I just read of a $1B offer to buy CS, which is being rejected because it is 10% or so of market value.

Credit Suisse collapsed. It was taken over by UBS in a shotgun wedding that included a $9 billion bailout from the Swiss and wiping out $17 billion in convertable bonds.

According to College Scorecard, the median salary for CS majors at OSU is $80,252. At Northeastern, it is $108,000. It seems that because of the co-ops, NEU CS grads make significantly more than OSU CS grads. Whether that is worth an additional year of school and the higher tuition is up to the OP. It could mean that. Or it could mean that median salaries in Boston are higher than they are in Ohio. I’d guess that grads from either school, who work the same employers are paid comparably. That's a good point. Most NEU grads end up in the Boston area, which might be an issue. Although it could be because of coops. If an OSU student did two 6 month coops, they might have higher starting salaries. But salaries are not everything. Do you want to...

CS CEO sent out a memo last Friday telling investors not confuse the poor price performance of the stock with the bank's capital and liquidity position. Reddit took this to mean that CS was on the verge of insolvency and pointed to widening spreads on CS credit default swaps to claim that the bank is on the brink of collapse. Really just scaremongering from the Reddit / Wall Streets Bets crowd So it sounds like it's pretty much a chicken little, "the sky is falling" deal? For the most part, yes. CS certainly isn't a pristine financial institution by any means, they've been plagued by a number of scandals and high profile losses over the past couple years (Archeagos hedge fund blow up, Greensill capital collapse, multibillion doll...

The 250k cap is useless. You need to either have banking regulations that prevent all banks (not just the biggest banks) from going under. Or you need all banks to pay into insurance that will cover their depositors in a credit event including deposits over 250k. The banking industry must have confidence for depositors or it ceases to function. We have a combination of the above right now. Regulations enacted in 2009 prevent excessive risk taking by banks but are less strict on smaller banks. In the 90 years of the FDIC, there has never been a period where all deposits were insured. So why now would the banking system cease to function if we continue to insure only mom and pop depositors? Sounds like a knee-jerk reaction to the failure of ...

According to College Scorecard, the median salary for CS majors at OSU is $80,252. At Northeastern, it is $108,000. It seems that because of the co-ops, NEU CS grads make significantly more than OSU CS grads. Whether that is worth an additional year of school and the higher tuition is up to the OP. It could mean that. Or it could mean that median salaries in Boston are higher than they are in Ohio. I’d guess that grads from either school, who work the same employers are paid comparably. That's a good point. Most NEU grads end up in the Boston area, which might be an issue. Although it could be because of coops. If an OSU student did two 6 month coops, they might have higher starting salaries. But salaries are not everything. Do you want to...

The 250k cap is useless. You need to either have banking regulations that prevent all banks (not just the biggest banks) from going under. Or you need all banks to pay into insurance that will cover their depositors in a credit event including deposits over 250k. The banking industry must have confidence for depositors or it ceases to function. We have a combination of the above right now. Regulations enacted in 2009 prevent excessive risk taking by banks but are less strict on smaller banks. In the 90 years of the FDIC, there has never been a period where all deposits were insured. So why now would the banking system cease to function if we continue to insure only mom and pop depositors? Sounds like a knee-jerk reaction to the failure of ...

Vulcan wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 1:33 pm

Vulcan wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 1:29 pm This could mean one of two things:

1. NEU students are more sought-after than Harvard/MIT students.
2. Harvard/MIT students have more choices (including outside Boston area) than NEU students.

"The estimated total pay for a Co-Op at Northeastern University is $21 per hour."

And you have to take a semester off?

I think I know the answer to that.

CS majors make $35 to $40 per hour average.

I’m super excited to watch this tonight. Frontline, and more specifically their documentary “The Retirement Gamble,” was my introduction to retirement saving and Bogle, caused me to find this forum, and inspired me to open my Roth IRA back in 2015. I love "The Retirement Gamble", a great eye opener for anyone. Another similar documentary was called Broke: The American Dream, which was absolutely great. Unfortunately I can't find that one anywhere. I took a stab at it. The only place that has it is Vimeo and they want $28 to stream it. Not even any of the public libraries have copies. Our local library happens to list it and links to Kanopy.com "Broke: The New American Dream" is not on Kanopy. If it is at your local libr...

Tony-S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 11:11 pm

Harmanic wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 5:11 pm
I took a stab at it. The only place that has it is Vimeo and they want $28 to stream it. Not even any of the public libraries have copies.

You can watch it here.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/docu ... nt-gamble/

That's the wrong title. I was referring to the other title in the post, not the Retirement Gamble.

I’m super excited to watch this tonight. Frontline, and more specifically their documentary “The Retirement Gamble,” was my introduction to retirement saving and Bogle, caused me to find this forum, and inspired me to open my Roth IRA back in 2015. I love "The Retirement Gamble", a great eye opener for anyone. Another similar documentary was called Broke: The American Dream, which was absolutely great. Unfortunately I can't find that one anywhere. I took a stab at it. The only place that has it is Vimeo and they want $28 to stream it. Not even any of the public libraries have copies. There are 10 libraries in the US with copies. Montclair State University Harry A. Sprague Library SUNY Brockport, Drake Memorial Library Montgomery ...

Just finished watching. Gave me heartburn. Another “ end of the world “ documentary. Bought some index ETF’s after. I haven’t watched this one yet, but that that’s how I remember “The Retirement Gamble” being. I credit that documentary for inspiring me to actually learn about sound evidence-based investing and to beware of bad 401k plans and brokers like Edward Jones— I bought “The Bogleheads’ Guide to Investing” and opened an Roth IRA at vanguard and filled it with index funds because of it. I’m very glad that I was ale to watch it early in my retirement saving journey. Retirement Gamble was great at exposing the high cost of fees and the benefits of indexing. It also raised the issue of fiduciaries as financial advisors. And the narrator...

Down the road (next 6 years) I'll need to decide what to do with my TIAA traditional funds. An annuity pays more but looking at the site it looks like another option would be to take RMDs beginning at 73. I'm not in need of the money and I'm thinking RMDs (which would be lower from my understanding) would help keep (potentially) keep me from jumping into the 24% bracket (as things stand now). Thoughts? I know the variables of future tax brackets, tax rates and stock market returns, etc. are only predictions. I am doing Roth conversions over the next 6 years and in retrospect I wish I had done that sooner! I know I can/should talk to someone at TIAA but that involves a time commitment I don't want to make and in general I found them to be p...

runner3081 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 2:50 pm We are planning the following:
100% Paid books/tuition for 2-years of Community College, living at home.
100% Paid books/tuition for in-state University, living at home.

Anything else? They are responsible for it (i.e., room and board if they want 4-years away).

Study abroad - Germany has free colleges and some are in English and accept foreign students. Canada has some inexpensive colleges, like Memorial University of Newfoundland, which has really good CS and engineering programs.
Military service
Summer jobs, internships, coops

KellyInBaconville wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 2:40 pm Take a look at that 5.75 load….
I’m a noob here. But have learned about expenses.

This is the stuff the Dave Ramsey pawns off on the gullible.

watchnerd wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:18 pm

Harmanic wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:01 pm I will start buying TIPS for my bond allocation when real yields top 2%. Not until then.

Is there something magic about 2% as compared to, say, 1.8%?

I always use rules for investing decisions. It helps avoid emotional rationalization. Also, it has been over 2% many times in the past, so it looks like a reasonable number to start switching from treasuries to TIPS.

I will start buying TIPS for my bond allocation when real yields top 2%. Not until then.

So no need to worry about 250k limits. The government is guaranteeing all deposits of any size.

Uncle Morris wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:58 pm We file jointly.

My spouse received income via Paypal, and the SSN on that account is mine. So the 1099 from Paypal has my SSN.

Is this a problem? Can we report it (correctly) as her income, not mine, or will the IRS be looking for that amount on my part of the return?

As the other say, it shouldn't be a problem, but I would get it fixed for future returns.

bnttwnbnt wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:04 pm Wondering what the boglehead philosophy on 401k rollovers is. I've had a former employer's 401k with its same custodian for almost 3 years now.

As far as rollover destination options, I have a 401k with a new employer and also have a Roth IRA with vanguard

It depends on the fees and investment options. If they are good, leave it be. If they are mediocre, roll them over.

runner26 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:27 pm Breaking
MARKETS
Regulators close New York’s Signature Bank, citing systemic risk
PUBLISHED SUN, MAR 12 20236:24 PM EDT

Futures are soaring, likely because of the expectation of lower interest rates if banks are collapsing.

TxFrog wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:03 pm

Harmanic wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:28 pm ...Covid-19 – the three risks that were both massive and unpredictable." This is false, false, false. Experts predicted each event and the consequences, but they were ignored, ignored, ignored.

Huh? So in 2019 you knew that in March 2020 the S&P 500 would drop 30+% and the developed world would go into lockdowns or stay-at-home orders?

I understand some experts prior to 2020 we stating that the world was "due" for a global pandemic at some point and it was a possibility, but don't know anyone who accurately predicted the stock market drop in March 2020 well beforehand.

Not the specific date, but the consequences, including the shutdowns and market drop were predicted for years.

What does SVB failure mean to our Fixed income of our Port ? ==================================================== Thanks for weighing in to my threads and seeking insights from this forum. I see many thread on SVB failure, but I want to see how it apply to our fixed income component of our Portfolios. We learned that SVB put their money in long term treasury, that caused its failure/situation. How do we know, that our portfolios fixed income ETF/Fund not heavy on long term treasury? I do see Bond duration of 6.4 years cause 6.4 % gain in interest rate fall one percentage point; a 6.4% loss if rates rise one point. What is the bond duration to pick in current rising interest rate environment? Thanks for sharing. If, and this is a big if, it...

The Psychology of Money is a great book and Morgan has published some good articles, but this one is really grasping straws. For instance, "But everyone was blind to 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, and Covid-19 – the three risks that were both massive and unpredictable." This is false, false, false. Experts predicted each event and the consequences, but they were ignored, ignored, ignored.

IsabellaH555 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:11 pm

tunafish wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 3:08 am I would put it in 2-3 credit unions because of the federal insurance limit.

I've transferred between places a few times It is simple. For example, Schwab has a form you can down load, fill out, scan in and upload, and presto it happens in a week or so hands off. There is a likelihood the form lets you say transfer everything, this amount, if between brokerages specific assets, etc.

Please explain the difference between the federal insurance limit at credit unions vs banks.

Thanks,

Isabella

There is not really any difference, just a different insurance provider. Both have maximums of $250,000 per account.

cowbman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 10, 2023 11:00 pm Given the recent news with Silicon Valley Bank, you may want to consider the security of the bank. Also, Fidelity allows you to purchase several different MMA as well as T-bills. The SIPC limit is higher at Fidelity than the FDIC limits in banks. If you are set on transferring that amount, I'd probably send it as a wire.

Note that the Fidelity Bank Sweep Account has $1.25 million in FDIC insurance per account holder.
https://www.fidelity.com/why-fidelity/s ... r-accounts