Search found 296 matches

by understandingJH
Thu Nov 30, 2023 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?
Replies: 29
Views: 4491

Re: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?

You said your income hasn’t been stable. Do you have an appropriately sized emergency fund? Current emergency fund right now is 4 months expenses. What I mean by unstable income is that during my career, yearly income has roughly looked like this, adjusted for today's dollars: (yikes... inflation has been over 30% over the past 10 years cumulatively speaking, and over 60% past 20 years) 2004-2009: $50-75k (first jobs out of college) 2010-2019: $120-140k (started working for VC-funded startups) 2020-2023: $50K (laid off at 2 different startups, mental health diagnoses, unemployment, part-time work, bootstrapping my own startup) 2024 expected: $100k (back to full-time work during the week at yet another startup, plan to continue with my star...
by understandingJH
Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?
Replies: 29
Views: 4491

Re: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?

Adjusting your bond percentage by 10%, or $35k, is unlikely to be the difference between success and failure. 70% or 80% stocks are both good. Main thing is to stick with your plan of staying invested mostly in stocks and continuing your $30k of new contributions. Since you’ve changed your allocation every couple years picking one and sticking to it is likely best (Or a predetermined plan to increase bonds by a certain percentage as you get older) Yes, it seems you are correct. I also read this post on the main page by Nisiprius which highlights something I noticed when changing the stock/bond mix with my own Monte Carlo simulations. The worse case scenario between 85, 80, and 70 percent stocks seem to be about the same, although when I te...
by understandingJH
Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?
Replies: 29
Views: 4491

Re: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?

KlangFool wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:28 pm OP,

1) What is your current annual expense?
4) What is your targeted portfolio size?
7) Why do you think that it really matters? It does not. 70/30 is good enough.

KlangFool
1) About $40-50k a year
4) $1.5-2 million (would like to retire earlier than 65 if possible)
7) After doing the Monte-Carlo above, it seems you're right
by understandingJH
Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?
Replies: 29
Views: 4491

Re: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?

70/30 is reasonable at 40 though a bit on the conservative side. Asset allocation is individual. You want to stick to your allocation and may be become more conservative as you get closer to your goal. However, you have to balance between not taking risk and not reaching your goal. Have you run the numbers using something like your retirement calc to see if you can reach your goal based on allocation. It's not entirely accurate but is a good check. I use something like Portfolio visualizer and run it through mone carlo. Great idea! Given my history (listed at the top of the post) my income hasn't been stable, and I'm not sure whether it's going to be stable going forward. So it's hard to estimate what my future accumulation/contribution wi...
by understandingJH
Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?
Replies: 29
Views: 4491

Re: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?

illumination wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:14 pm I wouldn't say you are doing anything wrong with 70/30 at age 40, but if you're taking a poll, I do think it's more conservative than you need to be. I actually think Vanguard's recommendation of 85/15 to 80/20 is a good one.
If I re-allocated, how exactly would you go about doing that? My questions towards the end consider a few possibilities. And also, I feel comfortable staying where I am, I just wonder if I need to be this conservative or not.
by understandingJH
Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?
Replies: 29
Views: 4491

Re: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40?

David Jay wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:44 pm 70/30 is completely reasonable for someone age 40, but I don't even like the question. The correct question is whether or not 70/30 is appropriate for you individually.
I agree the title wasn't summarized well, so I updated the title to be more reflective of the content of the post, which includes context.
by understandingJH
Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?
Replies: 29
Views: 4491

Re: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40?

WhiteMaxima wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:58 pm Too conservative. If you want to match the market, you got to 100% into the marketm,but only if your daily expense are covered buy EM, annunity, pension, SS.
I should add, I have no mortgage (I rent instead). This was another reason I considered/justified a higher bond allocation in the past.
by understandingJH
Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?
Replies: 29
Views: 4491

Am I too conservative holding 70/30 at 40 [given my history]?

My investing history: 2010 | $2k | AA: 30/70 ( Started investing when I found this site ) 2011| $8k | AA: 75/25 ( Was 100/0 in my 401k split between large/mid/small cap ) 2012 (divorce and restructure finances to be more traditional 3-fund allocation, paid alimony for 3 years) 2014 | $29k | AA: 80/20 - 30% international ( somewhere between 2011 and 2012 I changed to 80/20 ) 2016 | $70K | AA 60/40 - 30% international ( I seemed to ignore my target AA of 80/20 and increased fixed income, rebalanced to 70/30 ) 2018 | $150k | AA 70/30 - 30% international ( maintained high saving rate [30% gross] ) 2020 Laid off 2x during pandemic, starting my own business, stopped contributing to retirement except for IRA contributions each year 2021 (Lived of ...
by understandingJH
Wed Nov 22, 2023 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds as an asset class
Replies: 27
Views: 3086

Re: International Bonds as an asset class

1. What is the duration of Global Bonds in portfolio Visualizer? 2. What percentage of US is in Global Bonds? 3. Why do you think Hedged Bonds has a lower correlation with the stock market than the unhedge bonds? 4. Are there funds that better approximate Bonds ex-US? 5. Do you hold international bonds? Is your hedge or unhedge? What funds? 1&2 If we go to https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/faq and click on "16 Data Sources for Asset Returns" we see that the Global Bonds Category is represented by PIMCO Global Bond (US Dollar-Hedged) Fund (PGBIX). Putting a 100% PGIBX into Portfolio Visualizer we see that it is 61.77% US bonds with a duration of 3.65. 3. I cant answer this one; I'm a miner not an economist. :? 4. The best fu...
by understandingJH
Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40 years of negative real bond returns (1940-1979)
Replies: 22
Views: 2433

Re: 40 years of negative real bond returns (1940-1979)

anagram wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 7:24 pm T-bills look better for those 4 decades and Short Term Treasuries might have been better still. I would encourage people to read Bernstein's 2nd edition of Four Pillars. He talks at length about this.
Thanks, I'll take a look at the book when I get the chance. T-Bills did do a little better, as you mention. They are positive in one of the decades:

1940s: -4.63
1950s: -0.20
1960s: 1.51
1970s: -0.85
by understandingJH
Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40 years of negative real bond returns (1940-1979)
Replies: 22
Views: 2433

Re: 40 years of negative real bond returns (1940-1979)

10yr Treasuries and corporate bonds have never seen a negative-return decade in nominal terms, but six of the 12 decades since 1900 have seen a negative real return from Treasuries, including four successive decades from the 1940s. The last four decades have seen remarkable positive real returns for bonds – although with each decade, we have seen these annualized returns decline, and we can't help thinking that we're setting ourselves up for a return to a few negative-real-return decades ahead in bonds as we move into our Age of Disorder. Thank you. So it is not "bonds", but "10-year T-notes". Not that surprising; it is a non-news. The blog post has an image (https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/S...
by understandingJH
Fri Nov 17, 2023 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40 years of negative real bond returns (1940-1979)
Replies: 22
Views: 2433

Re: 40 years of negative real bond returns (1940-1979)

Keep in mind that interest rates on US Treasury bonds were capped starting in 1942 and the caps were only gradually unwound after 1951. The past is what it is, the corpus of data is what it is, and perhaps interest rate caps are part of the risk involved in investing in US Treasury securities. Interesting, I just read some headline recently about other countries using yield curve control, in the EU maybe? Perhaps I'm misremembering. I did find this that goes into what you are talking about in depth: https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2021/2 Thanks for pointing this out. If it's happened in the past, and also elsewhere in the world now, then what prevents the US from doing this again in the future? Could it affect...
by understandingJH
Fri Nov 17, 2023 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand my TIP order on Vanguard
Replies: 9
Views: 1086

Re: Help me understand my TIP order on Vanguard

I also serendipitously ordered $1000 in TIPS at auction out of curiosity today. And then I read this post, so I'm interested in what you learn about Vanguard's reporting. I can confirm I have the same results as the OP. I sure hope we didn't just order $100,000 :shock: worth. What happens when we overdraft VMFXX lol?

I'm pretty sure we bought $1000 because I double-checked, and if you try to buy more, the minimum the screen will let you buy is $1000. I also can't imagine any UX designer and Software team defaulting the purchase to anything but the minimum Vanguard will let you buy. I think we're fine.
by understandingJH
Fri Nov 17, 2023 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40 years of negative real bond returns (1940-1979)
Replies: 22
Views: 2433

40 years of negative real bond returns (1940-1979)

Everyone here knows that interest rate risk has shown up with bonds, and while ~5% interest rates are starting to look attractive, I wonder just how safe nominal bonds really are. I came across a CFA's blog post summary of the Long-Term Asset Return Study by Jim Reid here: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/05/200-years-of-asset-class-returns/ I was surprised to see that nominal bonds had 4 decades of real loses: 1940s: -2.63% 1950s: -1.80% 1960s: -0.15% 1970s: -1.21% There is only one ten-year period from 1800-2020 where bonds did not lose real value when stocks also failed to keep up with inflation. And that period is recent (2000-2009). Perhaps this recency bias helped promote the "bonds are for safety" platitude/mantra. For...
by understandingJH
Sat Jul 27, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Optimization and Simplification
Replies: 1
Views: 585

Portfolio Optimization and Simplification

I need to optimize my portfolio for simplicity and tax efficiency at a minimum. Below I have my current allocations followed by 3 options: Optimize for tax efficiency and simplify accounts Optimize for tax efficiency & foreign tax credit, simplify accounts, and plan to do tax loss harvesting on total international Optimize for tax efficiency, simplify accounts, and plan to do tax loss harvesting on total US For tax loss harvesting, I need to keep the target asset at Vanguard to make sure I'm not automatically reinvesting dividends on with it. This means the target asset cannot be in my HSA or 401k as these are not Vanguard accounts. https://i.imgur.com/kS5No1u.png At first, I was leaning towards option 2. because why keep any more Inter...
by understandingJH
Sat Jul 20, 2019 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting Worth it?
Replies: 176
Views: 16419

Tax Loss Harvesting Worth it?

I have five accounts: Employer: HSA: 4% 401k: 15% Vanguard: IRA: 30% Roth: 20% Taxable: 31% Since my employer accounts will reinvest dividends and keep buying funds, Tax Loss Harvesting (TLH) seems to only work if it's for funds that are not in these accounts. For example, I can keep Total International (TI) only at Vanguard and set it up to not reinvest dividends. I would be overweight in US stocks if I kept TI only in taxable (without selling some of my US stocks there). To avoid capital gains taxes of selling US stocks to make room for the entire TI amount in taxable, I'd also need to keep some TI in my IRA or Roth. This would expose 14% (about half of TI stocks) of my portfolio to TLH opportunities. Does this strategy make sense? I'm ta...
by understandingJH
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any natural hedges to stocks?
Replies: 18
Views: 2591

Re: Any natural hedges to stocks?

Here's a thought experiment Nisiprius. Which of the following portfolios would you rather have? And can you guess which assets make up these portfolios? https://i.imgur.com/bZaVP6W.png OK, I'll play. In hindsight, and assuming 1/1/2008 as the starting point, I would rather have had Portfolio 1, and in a second I'll give my guesses as to what they might be. But in return, I would like to ask you the following question: do you have anything dated, in writing, that shows that you personally invested in, or recommended, portfolio #1 on about 1/1/2008? So my guess is that Portfolio 2, red, is "the stock market," i.e. S&P 500 or Total Stock; that portfolio 3, yellow, is a balanced portfolio of, perhaps, 60/40 stocks/bonds; and that...
by understandingJH
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 13705

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

one must ask: how many countries was he making forecasts about, what was the full list of country forecasts, and how well did he do on all the others. Not a country forecast, but assuming the same method was used back in June/July 2013, he predicted that Tesla was in a bubble: https://i.imgur.com/1grZzy6.png And notice that the stock continued to grow over time and never crashed relative to the bubble prediction. https://i.imgur.com/mzusg7Q.png On the website it says: " Without judging the value of Tesla’s technology, innovation and management , it is a textbook example of a bubble." Maybe the stock is in a bubble that just hasn't popped in 5 years? Maybe those other variables he's ignoring are lurking variables? What is the prec...
by understandingJH
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any natural hedges to stocks?
Replies: 18
Views: 2591

Re: Any natural hedges to stocks?

If by "hedge" you mean a way of getting the returns of stocks without really taking the risks of stocks, if you mean some magic investment that will simply cancel out stock plunges, I think that's the investing equivalent of perpetual motion. By hedge I mean something with a low or negative correlation to stocks. Low correlation isn't a hedge at all. Zero correlation isn't a hedge at all. The benefits of low correlation are subtle and hard to understand--basically, honors student in high school math--so they are "explained" with misleading language and explanations. My understanding is that when stocks take a dive, there's generally a flight to safety, which makes bonds go up. Your understanding is seriously flawed and ...
by understandingJH
Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I on track for retirement? Also: Simplify? Optimize?
Replies: 7
Views: 1729

Re: Am I on track for retirement? Also: Simplify? Optimize?

Ron Scott wrote: Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:44 am
smitcat wrote: Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:12 am
Ron Scott wrote: Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:56 am 15X plus SS seems quite low to me even for a “normal” retirement age like 65. At 55 I’d be concerned about running out of money.

Assuming WR of 3%, you’re looking at 33X.
I follow your posts and have ,earned from them , tnank you.
I am curious if his 15X gross income is relevant since the OP also states that this will be about 45X expenses?
Oh, I did not do that math... 45X seems conservative and wise.
That is correct. 15x gross income is about 45x expenses right now. 20 years from now my expenses likely will be higher as other posters mentioned. But even if it's 30-35x expenses that's probably okay.
by understandingJH
Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I on track for retirement? Also: Simplify? Optimize?
Replies: 7
Views: 1729

Am I on track for retirement? Also: Simplify? Optimize?

Age: 35 Stock/Bond AA Target: 70/30 US/Intl AA 70/30 Goal: 15x my income by 55 (I live off 1/3 of my gross income) Portfolio Size: 1.5x my income Emergency Fund: 1 Year of expenses at 1.8% APY Taxable: 8.9% Savings Account (1.8% APY) 0.8% Vanguard Limited Term Tax Exempt (2.0% SEC Yield) 7.7% Vanguard Total International Stock Admiral 19.5% Vanguard Total Stock Market Admiral Rollover IRA 3.5% Vanguard Interim-Term Investment Grade (3.5% SEC Yield) 3.0% Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade (3.1% SEC Yield) 2.4% Vanguard Prime Money Market (2.1% SEC Yield) 2.4% Vanguard Total Bond Market (3.1% SEC Yield) 8.3% Vanguard Total International Stock Admiral 18.3% Vanguard Total Stock Market Admiral Roth IRA: 3.5% CD (5-year 2.1% APY maturing in a ...
by understandingJH
Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prepaid car maintenance -- Mazda -- HCOL
Replies: 21
Views: 1957

Prepaid car maintenance -- Mazda -- HCOL

Is paying $1100 for prepaid maintenance for the first 3-years on a new Mazda CX-5 in a HCOL a good deal? Dealership claims to be giving employee discount on maintenance schedule of like 28% off.

Edmunds.com has maintenance for the first three years at $1097. But again not sure if this number applies to a HCOL area.

Lastly, the driver of this car will likely only be putting on about 6000-7000 miles a year.

Thoughts? I'm only familiar with what it's like in a LCOL area. At the dealer I pay about $50-60 for oil change and inspections. A bit more for the other period stuff. A few hundred or so at every 30,000 miles. $1100 sounds a bit high to me. I drive a Mazda 3, not a CX-5. Maybe there is a difference there too?
by understandingJH
Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Split 401k 50/50 roth/traditional [new job]?
Replies: 17
Views: 2001

Split 401k 50/50 roth/traditional [new job]?

I recently started a new job that for the first time gives me the option to contribute to both a ROTH and traditional 401k. Should I consider a 50/50 split to diversify my future tax situation? I know the group bias here is to do 100% traditional, but everyone has different circumstances. For me here are some details: Currently I am about 42% Traditional, 24% Roth, 34% Taxable. High taxable is partly due to going without a 401k at my old job for 2 years and also a high saving rate (33%). So I likely will have some tax diversification away from pre-tax due to capital gains rates on taxable. Due to #1 eventually, my taxable accounts will drawf my tax-advantage I'm in my 30s so a lot can change in the future in terms of tax laws (e.g. availabi...
by understandingJH
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: US citizen living in the US -- remote work for German company. Taxes? Currency? Invoicing? Benefits?
Replies: 7
Views: 1248

Re: US citizen living in the US -- remote work for German company. Taxes? Currency? Invoicing? Benefits?

Thanks for the feedback. It turns out this didn't work out. While they would have paid in USD, even asking for 150% more priced me too high relative to the other two candidates they had in the final round. They told me that I would have been a great fit and did the best on the interviews and assesments but I was simply much more expensive with my updated compensation requirements (I assume the other candidates where either in Europe or Asia).
by understandingJH
Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When does frugal cross the line to cheapskate?
Replies: 136
Views: 13566

Re: When does frugal cross the line to cheapskate?

nisiprius wrote: Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:57 pm If your frugality is making someone unhappy, you've crossed the line. That someone could be somebody else ("stingy,") or it could be you ("miserly.")
What if that someone else is a spendthrift significant other who makes a comparable amount of money to you. You being frugal means you want to pay $20,000 Toyota for the next car purchase, but that makes the other person unhappy because they want a Lexus for $40,000? Or another scenario: You want to buy a $20 no-name casual shirt, but they are unhappy you aren't wearing a $60 casual designer shirt. Or how about you prefer paying $20 for a pair of sunglasses from the drug store but they are unhappy because you aren't donning Versace for $200?
by understandingJH
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: US citizen living in the US -- remote work for German company. Taxes? Currency? Invoicing? Benefits?
Replies: 7
Views: 1248

Re: US citizen living in the US -- remote work for German company. Taxes? Currency? Invoicing? Benefits?

Overall, I wouldn't state to not work for an overseas company -- but if they only pay in Euros then I'd probably walk away because of the significant risk involved (for all the regions you mentioned). I haven't gotten an offer yet, but I did find out they would pay me in USD, invoice monthly, and also give me paid vacation (30 days -- in otherwords my monthly invoice would always be the same amount regardless of if I take time off). So since I'm not bearing currency risk and exchange rate fees, it looks like I could make this work if I account for the other overhead that I talked about, which is a multiplier of about 1.4-1.5x. If the multiplier is higher than this I'd be pricing myself out of their pay range (which was stated in the job ad...
by understandingJH
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Left company, exercise vested options or not?
Replies: 11
Views: 1260

Re: Left company, exercise vested options or not?

Tamarind wrote: Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:03 pm ETA that as I am posting I see you just posted some more detailed info about their financials and your equity math. I strongly advise you edit your post to remove that ASAP. I would bet that you signed a nondisclosure as party of qualifying for the options. Posting financial info here counts as public disclosure and is not worth it.
I updated that post and removed details that could be problematic. Let me know if I did enough. It's hard to talk about these things without numbers though.
by understandingJH
Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Left company, exercise vested options or not?
Replies: 11
Views: 1260

Re: Left company, exercise vested options or not?

So I was laid off from a startup going through financial trouble More than likely the startup is worth $0 at this point, also likely is that the startup will cease to exist in a short amount of time. The opposite side of this is IF they get their act together, and get to the point where you could actually do something with your shares they would likely be worth 1000x what you have today. If it's worth the risk to you, execute your shares, just know that the odds are extremely high they are worthless. Edited for privacy: I also doubt 1000x (1.3mm -- $1300 x 1k) is remotely possible. I really doubt that upside risk of the options could be worth that much. I estimate (and could be wrong) that my options might be worth something like 0.05% equ...
by understandingJH
Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Left company, exercise vested options or not?
Replies: 11
Views: 1260

Re: Left company, exercise vested options or not?

dcabler wrote: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:13 pm +1 One thing to check is whether your options have "first right of refusal". Many startups have this. Basically it means, yeah, you can exercise your options and before your check even clears, they write a new check purchasing them back.

I've done a couple of startups. Unless I'm a principal, never again...
I checked the contract, and there is no mention of "first right of refusal" or such language, and it turns out that there is an amendment at the end that changed the vesting schedule before I started. So I likely have 58% vested not 45%.
by understandingJH
Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Left company, exercise vested options or not?
Replies: 11
Views: 1260

Re: Left company, exercise vested options or not?

ridebikeseveryday wrote: Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:27 pm Dan Luu has a great writeup of the multitude of ways you can get screwed on options: https://danluu.com/startup-options/

Best of luck with your decision.
I think I read that link or a similar analysis ~3 years ago when I started working at my ex-employer. Thanks, I'll take a look.

It's why I pushed hard for salary. In fact, at my current new job offer, I negotiated from 15% below market pay + equity to exactly market salary with no equity. I view options as worth less than nothing, nothing, slightly more than nothing, or stratospheric if the company becomes the next Apple (but the odds of that are lower than the Mariana Trench).
by understandingJH
Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Left company, exercise vested options or not?
Replies: 11
Views: 1260

Left company, exercise vested options or not?

So I was laid off from a startup going through financial trouble (I was one of three let go on a nine person team, a couple others left as well on the other team as far as I know). It's a small company with 11-20 employees. I have about 45% of my stock options vested. If exercised they would cost me about $1300 plus tax on any appreciation since grant (if any). I have a bit of time before they exercise right is forfeited to decide. When I negotiated compensation I negotiated for salary and not options, so I don't know what percentage equity these represent but knowing the exercise price I'd imagine it's a very tiny fraction of a percentage. There has been no further funding rounds since the grant (Series-A funded). The layoffs where I think...
by understandingJH
Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: US citizen living in the US -- remote work for German company. Taxes? Currency? Invoicing? Benefits?
Replies: 7
Views: 1248

Re: US citizen living in the US -- remote work for German company. Taxes? Currency? Invoicing? Benefits?

Alright so some more research about this option: The value of 401k tax reduction shouldn't really count. As those taxes will eventually be paid. They are worth something for tax-free growth, but I can open an individual 401k or SEP-IRA with vanguard if I am an independent contractor (sole proprietorship or form an LLC). In fact there is the advantage of contributing more than $18,500 to these plans. So let's just account for the lack of 401k Employer Match (say, $5000). Health Insurance is tricky. I looked at the Healthcare.Gov today and the options are extremely limited (really only very high out of pocket max of 6,500 with 5000 deductible for HSA). Also The premiums are not taxed federally so I don't know if I need $15k to cover insurance...
by understandingJH
Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need full coverage health insurrance for just THIS month only (between jobs) -- can't find it
Replies: 20
Views: 2613

Re: Need full coverage insurrance for just THIS month only (between jobs) -- can't find it

jacoavlu wrote: Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:57 pm Are you sure Cobra not available from your prior job? Might be worth asking.
I plan to call the insurance company tomorrow during business hours and ask if my employer's plan is eligible for COBRA. I doubt it though as the company is small. I don't even know why the law allows for some plans to be exempt from COBRA. Seems something as important as this should be available for every person that has health insurance through an employer.
by understandingJH
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need full coverage health insurrance for just THIS month only (between jobs) -- can't find it
Replies: 20
Views: 2613

Need full coverage health insurrance for just THIS month only (between jobs) -- can't find it

So I was laid off last month, Insurance ended last day of last month, been too busy job hunting and negotiating. Accepted an offer. Will have coverage August 1st. However, I'm currently not covered and want to be. Called Healthcare.gov and asked how to be covered this month and they told me I can't be. I can only apply for coverage starting next month. My previous job was a small startup so I doubt they had 20 covered people to qualify for COBRA. So what do I do? Short term health insurance seems problematic and not full coverage (the biggest offenders are the $1 Million cap, no preexisting, no prescriptions). I've even looked for the most expensive short term plan I can find, about $200 a month and it still has these limitations. I just ne...
by understandingJH
Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: US citizen living in the US -- remote work for German company. Taxes? Currency? Invoicing? Benefits?
Replies: 7
Views: 1248

US citizen living in the US -- remote work for German company. Taxes? Currency? Invoicing? Benefits?

So I'm exploring new job opportunities. All but one are domestic and full-time employee. One opportunity is for a 100% remote position for a German company (the entire team is 100% remote). They mentioned that working as a contractor is the only option. I'm open to the idea but need to know what to expect and what I need to do from a tax, legal, insurance, and business perspective. I have some questions but please let me know of what I might not yet know but should know. Below salary ranges and calculations are fudged a bit to maintain privacy but are close to the actual values. It sounds like this will be 40 hours per week -- of course I'll need to confirm (they list a broad salary range as €50,000 - 160,000 -- seems they are looking for g...
by understandingJH
Fri May 04, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower expected stock returns means lower expected volatility?
Replies: 28
Views: 3284

Lower expected stock returns means lower expected volatility?

I think the answer to this question is no , but wondered if someone else has thought about this more than me. Historically stocks earned about 7% real, but the latest long term forecasts now put future US stock returns at 3% real ( Forbe's 30 year forecast ). I know others have recently forecasted similar numbers such as Bogle's 10-year estimate is 4% real , Swedroe recently forecasted 3% real , In 2015, Ferri said 5% real over the next 30 years and provided an estimated standard deviation of 19% ( which appears to be the historical average ) . So taking a "wisdom of the crowds" approach and calculating the mean estimate, future stock market may only return 3.75% and possibly at 19% standard deviation. I find this disturbing. For...
by understandingJH
Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth it to graduate 1 semester sooner if it costs MORE?
Replies: 9
Views: 1238

Re: Is it worth it to graduate 1 semester sooner if it costs MORE?

You didn't mention if you were married, or married with children. If you are either, ask your wife her feelings as well ... However, if you are stretched to a breaking point, it matters little if you save time, but ultimately burn out. Only you can know the reserves of your body and mind necessary for such an undertaking. I'm single, there are no real time constraints with taking 1/2 a year longer to finish. This is still for an undergraduate degree. I'm also thinking about grad school after. I already feel like I'm burning out halfway through a semester when things start picking up. Taking two classes requires about 25-30 hours of my time because A) there is about 5 hours of commuting involved, B) efficiency per extra hour working/studyin...
by understandingJH
Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth it to graduate 1 semester sooner if it costs MORE?
Replies: 9
Views: 1238

Is it worth it to graduate 1 semester sooner if it costs MORE?

I'm in my 30s working a good paying full time and going to school part time. If I take 2 classes per semester over 3 semesters it would likely cost me $10,010 to finish, but I may receive a $5000 scholarship like I have the past 2 years if it gets renewed. But renewal isn't guaranteed and subject to funding. So the total cost would be as low as $5010. If I push myself and take 3 classes a semester I can graduate early by 1 semester. If I get the scholarship, I'll only be eligible to use half $2500 (since I would only be staying one semester not two). Total cost with half the scholarship: $9280. If I don't get any scholarship: $11780. [There's a bit of an extra cost for me to take more classes per semester (weird I know)]. TL;DR: I could end...
by understandingJH
Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury ends myRA program
Replies: 32
Views: 5246

Re: Treasury ends myRA program

Well, this is just great. Now I need to deal with the hassle of transferring an IRA account. I parked $5500 here and expected it to grow for 30 years or to $15,000 which ever happened first as part of my bond allocation as I don't have access to the G fund in any other way. Why offer something for 30 years and then take it away? The current administration should have left this be as originally purposed and promised.
by understandingJH
Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?
Replies: 25
Views: 5117

Re: Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?

DS bought a M3i with Skyactv, new 2014. Stick. Base model with no backup camera, no GPS, standard sound system. ... Be sure its a Skyactv and no Fastfax. Yep, it's Skyactv. I do wonder how long the ~40MPG (or 155 HP) will last once carbon builds up on the valves since it's direct injected instead of port injected [which allows detergents gas to clean the carbon off the values]. But I love how Mazdas drive [like a BMW without the cost] and most cars now seem to be going the direct injection route. I could have saved a bit more going with a stick shift, and it would be more fun for when I'm driving it on fun roads, but not for the normal daily commutes. This base model does have the backup camera, touch button start, bluetooth, touchscreen (...
by understandingJH
Sat Aug 12, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?
Replies: 25
Views: 5117

Re: Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?

billfromct wrote:The car dealer offer sounds like the old "bait & switch". They "bait" you with a low price then "switch" to a higher price with all the extras at the time you pick up the car.
That may have been the case with one of the dealers I was talking with, but who I ended up buying from, the quoted price was the out the door price plus tax, temp tag registration, and a doc fee that I knew they would likely not budge on (which isn't much and I negotiated the price to offset that).

Before taxes my final cost was a just a few dollars over $15k. The down side is that in my state the $2500 of manufacturer discounts are taxable, so I still have to pay tax on that.
by understandingJH
Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?
Replies: 25
Views: 5117

Re: Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?

That's a great deal. Could it have been an "ad car"? You'd know if you call back in 2 weeks and your sales guy no longer works there. (no, really). I bought a Mazda 6 years ago with about the same MSRP and picked it up for $14.6k. Don't be fooled by the "regulated by the state" doc fee. It's nothing but dealer added profit. The state might put a max on what they can charge, but it's 100% profit, which allows them to advertise the car below invoice. Yeah I know the doc fee regulation is for the maximum and can be negotiated, but I couldn't get them to budge on that (I tried). Besides they were offering about $250 less than the next best offer anyway which came from a place I trust less (and would likely have hassled me i...
by understandingJH
Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?
Replies: 25
Views: 5117

Re: Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?

Well the 2K cash back and 0% APR + 1k APR cash are mutually exclusive. While I could in theory make 1500+ by doing the 1k cash back and putting the money into a 5-year CD, I'd have $1000 less taken off the price in today's dollars and the hassle of dealing with a loan for 5 years (plus a small loan origination fee) that if I paid off early I'd be loosing money. Ended up getting the car negotiated for $14,770 + tax, registration, and a small doc fee (which is regulated by my state). I can't believe I bought a car in one day so fast, but I love Mazdas and the need arose to buy a new one. Turns out I went with a different dealer in the end that sold cars to me before [so no up selling was attempted], but I negotiated with 3 local dealers in al...
by understandingJH
Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?
Replies: 25
Views: 5117

Re: Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?

thangngo wrote:
aristotelian wrote:Put $14K in a 5 year CD and save yourself another $1500.
^ this assuming OP can utilize his salary for car payments.
Shouldn't be an issue, plus I have an emergency fund large enough to cover the car and the CD. I like this idea. I am also permitted to pay the loan off after 4 months if I want.
by understandingJH
Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?
Replies: 25
Views: 5117

Re: Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?

thangngo wrote: Considering 2018 models are coming, expect some deals and discounts coming.
2018s are already on the lot, so yeah this is already including discounting for that reason I think (both by manufacturer and dealer).
by understandingJH
Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?
Replies: 25
Views: 5117

Buying a 2017 Mazda 3 new for $15k?

So I'm thinking of buying a 2017 Mazda 3 Sport automatic. MSRP is around 20,030. Lowest offer I've gotten is $15.5k This includes $2000 manufacturer cash back, and $1000 APR cash back, plus the rest being a discount given by the dealer. I might be able to stack $500 loyalty discount as well. However, the $1000 APR cash back requires taking a 0.0% loan up to 63 months. So... I have the cash to buy outright, but the loan seems to make sense for the cash back. That said how long a loan makes sense. Is the longer the better with 0% APR to keep as much in the bank earning 1.11% interest (currently)? Also, is this price good? Seems it's a good deal. I might be able to negotiate it to 15k even and save an extra $500 (or another $500 if I can stack...
by understandingJH
Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What advice to give 21 year old?
Replies: 133
Views: 14599

Re: What advice to give 21 year old?

A new software engineer at a technology company will easily make in excess of $150K per year, not counting benefits and retirement plan contributions and matching, which will, add another $20 k or more.
Only for HCOL areas I suppose. In fact, in my LCOL area, $130k seems to be attainable only for the top 5% of experienced software engineers. Nothing "easily" at all to get to $150k here. Above $150k and you'd likely need to have management responsibilities. Entry level grads typically make around $60-70k here.
by understandingJH
Sat Jul 15, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time replace washer and dryer [back of dryer so hot it burnt me]?
Replies: 21
Views: 8453

Re: When to replace washer and dryer?

If it were me I would look inside to see what is going on. I wouldn't be surprised if the back was hot but I don't know what is normal. Discolored paint doesn't look normal. As to when to replace- I would replace after it breaks and I can't easily fix it. Appliance parts and repair ideas are very easy to get using Mr. Google. Why would you replace the washer if the dryer doesn't work? Is there an aesthetic issue? When I sold a house recently after 30 years it still had the original, twice-repaired dryer. Well if it was normal for the back to get that hot I would have expected there to be a "Warning -- HOT!" sign on the back of the unit. There is none. I suppose I don't need to replace the washer if the dryer is bad. I just wonder...
by understandingJH
Sat Jul 15, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time replace washer and dryer [back of dryer so hot it burnt me]?
Replies: 21
Views: 8453

Time replace washer and dryer [back of dryer so hot it burnt me]?

My Frigidaire washer and dryer set is about 12 years old. This was just a very basic set purchased for something like $500 for the set new (equiv. to about $700 today after inflation). I haven't had any known issues with them. However, today I'm beginning to be concerned the dyer poses a safety risk. While the dryer was running, something feel behind it. The gap between the wall and the back of the dryer is wide enough for me to reach down and so I leaned on the dryer and reached for the object as far as I could. However, this attempt was abruptly cut short when the under side of my arm near my elbow touched the back of the dryer -- which turns out to be very very hot. The split-second contact has left the area red and portions have blister...