Bogleheads.org

Interesting thread. Following as I’ve similar questions.

Dear Bogleheads, Every 3-5 years I revisit my role at work, and generally look to see what else I could do/am interested in pursuing. Without getting too specific, I’ve been in Tech first level management roles for the past 10-15 years. Tired of operations type roles, transitioned to something more strategic last 5 years or so. Lead a great team, truly great people and am their humble leader. I’m at the threshold where I’m starting to think, ‘what’s next?’. I’d like some opinions and feedback mostly from people mid 40s or older who may have been in a similar situation. Just want to understand a. How you’ve navigated the decision process b. Your thoughts on my ideas below. Importantly, all my options are bounded by the fact I’d like this to ...

This was timely since we just agreed to attend a timeshare presentation in Mexico next month in exchange for an ultra cheap 5-nights all inclusive vacation. Wife and I are on the same page - we do not want to purchase one. We have decent income, so we are probably good "targets" for these salespeople. We just plan to toe the line that "we do not make financial decisions without consulting our financial advisor and lawyer, so no thank you". I am sure they will have retorts ready, like telling that I can back out within X days if the consultant/lawyer says no etc; but we plan to just say "no thank you, if we want one we will buy later from secondary market". We have both agreed that if any question is directed t...

If you get out of the single stock and put it into index funds, I think you're fine. I would figure out what asset allocation you want and put it in index funds that meet your needs. Maybe just a 3 fund portfolio with a high percentage of stocks. 4% WR is a bit on the high side for a long retirement but not out of the question if you're willing to cut back occasionally or pick up a small amount of income over the years. It sounds like your wife is already doing that. And you're at more like 3.1-3.7% WR and that's after a bad year in the market. Chances are that you'll be completely fine. But flexibility is always key for early retirements. The bigger risk is that you are not accurately estimating your expenses. Did you make sure to include...

Go for it. No chance you won’t pick up some work later.
Seems toxic, make the exit plan with/without job lined up. Having this amount saved up with low expenses, at least gives you this freedom to quit/exit. Life is short, without doing 10 peoples work!

I moved thousands from my kids linked savings account to pay property tax! So I guess my kids Christmas and Birthday money has acted as my EF.

Money is fungible. Something I’m acknowledging more and more.

KlangFool wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 10:57 am OP,

1) It does lose it's nominal value. Aka, you know exactly the dollar value.

2) Accessibility, you can get at it when you want it. It is not subject to someone's else decision. Aka, HELOC does not qualify since it can be cancelled.

3) It does not cost you to use the money. For example, you have to pay interest in order to use it.

4) Cash or cash equivalent.

KlangFool

+1

MrJedi wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:23 am The ironic thing is that people generally want their taxable accounts to give off LESS dividends to protect from dividend tax drag every year.

I want taxable dividends to make up my non-discretionary spend when i retire. Let's see if i can get close. Who knows - currently around $20k a year, $40k a year would be great imo.

harvestbook wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 1:30 pm I'd sure retire at 25x. In fact, I did. So far so good.
Calculations may get you to a SWR survival rate of 98 percent but death is 110 percent.

if you have the skills and traits of frugality and flexibility, a lot of the rest simply doesn't matter except the kind of luck that no amount of money can shield you from.

I thought 25X was my number. Until it turned into a 30X target
It doesn’t matter, because my wife will not let me retire until kids are in College. 5-6 more years of working for the ‘man’. Then regardless of portfolio amount, I’m jumping off the hamster wheel for at least 6-12 months

Hundreds of millions of Americans manage to do it as do most Bogleheads. Hard "hard" could it be? In fairness, hundreds of millions of Americans don't have FTC or backdoor Roths or other complications that Bogleheads regard as routine. But the OP definitely came to the wrong place in looking for any sympathy from a forum where nobody ever finds anything hard. Not for me. I always find a challenge each year. RSU’s I figured out this year, no big change to the process last year. Adjusting cost basis etc. Foreign tax, only got resolved/fixed after turbo tax cpa live final review. I still need to double check that based on a thread or two here. Reporting the backdoor was funny. I figured out the gap, and told the cpa what we need to ...

Just got offered this from Trustmark as well.

Does not seem like a good deal. I really don't even know if i should pursue this at age mid 40's.
My mom would like to look into this in her late 60's - any hints on recommended agents/companies she could talk to in NorCal?

Thanks

Interesting replies for sure. Must take some getting used to withdrawing different amounts and keeping within some bounds.

Planning for two decent social security payments has got to play into this. Or pension if lucky enough!

I.e. the number is likely higher than the 2 or 2.5 % annual I was thinking before scanning the rest of the posts.

I don’t trust anyone to do it. Done it myself past 20 plus years.
Turbo tax is good, not great. I have paid the extra to have cpa review my return. This has been very useful. We caught foreign tax credit misses etc. good to talk thru the return with a TT expert.
I guess my fed plus state cost will be close to $300. I’m ok with that given the personal service and reviews.

Yep, US taxes are a nightmare! I really cannot grow old here.

Impressive OP & savings rate. I’m a few years ahead (adults and kids). What are your current expenses? Roughly? I ask cos our expenses have gone up (travel mostly) even after paying off the mortgage! I’m trying to reign it in a bit this year, after plenty of excess last year. Yes I think we have experience similar budget growth. Currently predicting 125K in todays budget w/ kids budget. Planning more like 115K in early retirement (rough swag swapping kids expenses with healthcare costs). We were running 100K a year budget with primary house mortgage for a while but since eliminating that we still have seen rather large spend growth but its mostly discretionary (travel). Going from a frugal super saver mentality to being ok with spend i...

Agree with above. Don’t fight the fed has led to Don’t fight the S&P500. Assuming fed cannot bail out the regular disasters expected next year or two, I’d expect US stocks to slowly edge back in growth compared to international. These threads need a good bet or two to settle this.

Bet one way or the other by the end of the year. Settle this for the near term

Beach. Preferably warm beach. Any sand. Watch your kid have fun for hours. Miss those early days!

I’ve felt this way once or twice. Then reality hits, usually from a thread or two here . Keeps me grounded and somewhat focused on the mission next few years.

I think there is a danger of never getting to “made it” and keep chasing the cheese hologram on the hamster wheel.

I don’t think each advisor has a playbook to follow to the T.
At least that’s my experience with Fido advisors, so far. All kinds of different advice!

Well done. I just wish more of my best friends could chart this path. Leading a horse to water…

I've not read all the replies. We made a deal with our son and daughter. They took the subsidized loans and if they finished school, mom and dad would pay off the loans. If they didn't finish school they had to pay off the loans. I like this. Fits in with roughly half college costs saved in 529s. Thanks. In fact, I’d like to tie it to success after college. Can’t think how yet… I would be concerned that the more strings are attached the more liable they are to resent it. I’ve had friends who have family that has tried to exercise control this way and it’s gone poorly. What constitutes success? What bar is high enough? My dad paid off my small loan after I got a first class honors degree in the UK. He would have paid it off even if I got a ...

Yes, my risk portfolio is global market weight. For anyone interested in a similar approach, there is good data here, across multiple tabs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQShEGnLTHNk2_zgHWTiReXADEhmNvLR8SIaTsdGTdQJaa_F9ESrbo8bcsP0XEsVlBFtGEbjqUMO7g_/pubhtml# I guess I don't understand your end game. Do you also diversify forex as well? Surely lots of people use EUR, JPY, CNY, GBP etc etc. I'm following Sharpe's ideas that he described in the RISMAT series. https://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/RISMAT/RISMAT-7.pdf Thanks for sharing watchnerd. Follow your posts with interest. What do you invest in for global credit? Tried navigating the google doc, but got lost. Just trying to understand the main funds making up the bulk of y...

Impressive OP & savings rate. I’m a few years ahead (adults and kids). What are your current expenses? Roughly?
I ask cos our expenses have gone up (travel mostly) even after paying off the mortgage! I’m trying to reign it in a bit this year, after plenty of excess last year.

Yes, my risk portfolio is global market weight. For anyone interested in a similar approach, there is good data here, across multiple tabs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQShEGnLTHNk2_zgHWTiReXADEhmNvLR8SIaTsdGTdQJaa_F9ESrbo8bcsP0XEsVlBFtGEbjqUMO7g_/pubhtml# I guess I don't understand your end game. Do you also diversify forex as well? Surely lots of people use EUR, JPY, CNY, GBP etc etc. I'm following Sharpe's ideas that he described in the RISMAT series. https://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/RISMAT/RISMAT-7.pdf Thanks for sharing watchnerd. Follow your posts with interest. What do you invest in for global credit? Tried navigating the google doc, but got lost. Just trying to understand the main funds making up the bulk of y...

TinyHouse wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:09 pm

TN_Boy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:16 am
I find a 30% "chance" of failure rate unacceptably high, and I'm really not that risk averse.

Sure, but with the market down ~20%, it’s more like 5 to 10% chance of failure. I’m much more comfortable with 90%+ odds for planning purposes. That doesn’t take into account that we will have other potential income streams that are at 90%+ probably (SS, side income, inheritance, etc).

We can’t afford not to ”retire” early at some point. For now, OMY syndrome to pay for the house build.

I like the way you think

user5027 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:04 am I've not read all the replies.

We made a deal with our son and daughter. They took the subsidized loans and if they finished school, mom and dad would pay off the loans. If they didn't finish school they had to pay off the loans.

I like this. Fits in with roughly half college costs saved in 529s. Thanks. In fact, I’d like to tie it to success after college. Can’t think how yet…

This thread hit me harder than it should have this morning... having lost both my parents over the last year. My folks were better off than the fictional one's here... but only thru sheer blood sweat and tears. They worked hard for everything they had. Blue collar down to earth stubborn as the day is long. They raised 4 kids on 100 bucks a week in the 60's. We didn't take vacations. We never had a new car. They had a good life that was marred in the end by the pain and confusion that comes along with cancer and memory loss. The last 2 years really sucked. Mom passed at 80 and dad at 86. Even at 86 there was no telling dad something different than he already had his mind made up about. But they wouldn't have had it any other way. I don't se...

"If you can relate to those 2023 numbers, do you agree with longinvest? Will you restrict yourself to spending $60,000 - $65,000, reinvesting the rest? Or will you ride down the first part of Blanchett’s retirement smile with a yahoo!: take the cruise, indulge the hobby now, and resume saving only later if ever?" A couple in their mid-60s should take that cruise, indulge that hobby, etc. Since, statistically, neither needs to worry much about living long enough to run out of money at age 99. The OP's couple still had a successful retirement, even given their modest assets and lifetime household income. From https://www.longevityillustrator.org/ : Inputs: he she Date of Birth 6/1/1958 6/1/1958 Nearest Age 65 65 Retirement Age 65 6...

I’m weighted more foreign stocks. Have been for a while. Believe there is more smoke and mirrors hiding some big US bogeys. Articles like this scare me about US future: https://youtu.be/EpMLAQbSYAw Not directly financial, but US now dropping to being between Estonia and Albania in life expectancy doesn’t sit well with me either: https://www.worlddata.info/life-expectancy.php Seems that there are more ‘unknown’ risks in the US. More known risks or actual issues, factored into the stock prices in other countries (war impact, currency issues, risk of country default/debt/Greece type situations etc). I could be wrong, which is why I’m feeling more and more comfortable with my TRD 2065 401k investments. Let Vanguard experts do all the hard work/...

Shorter flights and/or longer stays

I had paid over 2k foreign tax. Only got around $400 credit
This was after going thru the right form in TurboTax with one of their CPA’s.

I’ll look at the actual tax forms on the weekend per above posts.

Only watched half so far. Intriguing and scary reminders that the Fed has done things recently never been done in its history. QE, buying mortgage backed securities, buying company debt etc.

How unusual is the Feds actions past 15 years compared to the past 100-200 years? Is is really as unusual as the video opines?

Stocks are stocks. The economy has been surprisingly globalized for a very long time. I have one of the most contrarian opinions in the forum, which is that international stocks aren't all that different from US stocks and it doesn't matter much whether you hold them or not. I would say, mildly, that by all means ask in the forum but be aware that a) the short-term stuff, the daily/weekly/monthly stuff, should be ignored . That means that the little charts you can find on Vanguard's website, which are only updated monthly, are good enough. b) Learn to find the data for yourself. I like Morningstar. c) Pay attention to the actual numbers. People screaming "XYZ is down, down, DOWN!" doesn't tell you whether "down" is 5% o...

I’m mid 40s Dad.
My expenses have gone up around 50% since I was mid-30s Dad.
I have not moved house or spent any more (per year) on cars.

Travel perhaps contributes 25% to the increase. The regular payments that we’ve added last 10 years: kids clubs, college guidance counselor, summer program costs etc = roughly 25% of the increase from 10 years ago.

Yes, I’m looking forward to kids graduating HS. At least I’ll have more of my own time, if not all of my own money yet.

Bottom line, I really hope when I’m ‘mid 50s dad’ my costs have gone down from mid 40s. In fact, I’m banking on it to retire early!

Even short mile long strolls around the neighborhood help my mental health. Especially on Mondays

I’m ready to file, but want to delay as I’m in CA.
Is there a thread re: CA and delaying filing?

I’d like to pay my fed taxes in Sept/Oct if possible.

Not sure if I should file and delay payment, or just delay filing (do I need to do any paperwork if I’m in one of the listed CA counties?). Appreciate any strategies from CA folks. Thanks.

Lagging indicator. Let’s see where this thread is in the fall.
Yellen houses is my guess.

I want to pay for all reasonable costs. I’ve probably saved for 50% in 529’s. I hope kids get into cost effective UC’s.

If out of CA, kids will have to contribute significantly. Loans etc.

This is unfortunately, a cost/frugal decision and discussion. I see no reason not to include my kids with the discussion, including financial impact. The only question I have is when to have these kinds of financial discussions? My eldest is a HS freshman & is beginning to understand how hard he will need to work to get to any in state UC..

watchnerd wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:59 am

Wannaretireearly wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:47 am
I’m curious, watchnerd, which accounts do you hold VT in? I’m fairly comfortable (used to) my additions above. I think this is roughly global market weight? No idea.

Taxable (well, there it's VTWAX to enable auto-contribution) and Roth.

Global market portfolio weights can be found here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... g_/pubhtml#

Although I roll my own N-fund using data from here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... g_/pubhtml#

Thank you watchnerd. Appreciate the link.

*shrug* I just hold VT, which gives me global market weight. Let the efficient market sort out which regions are best. 1. Every two weeks: I’m buying/adding to TRD 2065 in 401k accounts (regular and mega backdoor Roth). Roughly 55% domestic and 35% intl equities. 2. Every few months: I’ll add a little to my taxable position: FTSE all world large & FTSE all world small. Added a little on Friday. 3. Every year, I’ll do a backdoor into Emerging Markets: Just did this on Friday. I’m probably at roughly 50-55% foreign stocks. 40-45% US, and 10% bonds (only in the TRD). I’m curious, watchnerd, which accounts do you hold VT in? I’m fairly comfortable (used to) my additions above. I think this is roughly global market weight? No idea. I’m wond...

Like this.

My anecdote: living in a VHCOL almost requires 2 decent incomes, unfortunately. At least until something eases up in the budget (e.g. pay off mortgage). My thought process may be a bit controversial: 1. Couples should think about the long kids raising timezone ahead of time, and plan out jobs/careers appropriately. 2. We’ve been lucky to generally have both jobs with good work/life balance. I see this as key if both parents are working full time. It is a stressful 18-25 years raising even a couple of kids. 3. I’ve seen folks jump at jobs, perhaps not thinking thru #2 properly. Result can be detrimental: high stress, arguments, no peace, etc 4. Ironically, we’re now at a point we could get by with one income. Very refreshing, as I can see us...

Liquid NW or Total NW? :twisted: Whatever you want... but know there's varying views on what different people will consider a "liquid" asset (and liquidity can change quickly), and a wide range of price valuations people will use for trying to peg the value of an illiquid asset. Maybe do both. Another interesting caveat, is if it's to measure your own savings/investment "efficiency", maybe receiving large value gifts and inheritance should be added to the "income" number at the value received. Thanks. If I assume Medicare earnings (DW and I) divided by total net worth, I’m at roughly 1.0. Medicare earnings divided by liquid net worth is roughly 0.7. This makes more sense to me as I don’t see my house as an inv...

Kinetic Currency wrote: ↑Tue Mar 07, 2023 8:28 pm Thank you all for the informative discussion. To be frank, I’ve become frustrated with all the theory behind the concept of liability matching. By the time I’m in my 70’s and 80’s I’m not sure I’ll have the mental bandwidth to manage a bond ladder or constantly juggle two bond funds of different durations. I’m looking for a simple action plan. But maybe that’s not possible and I just have to accept a “close enough” solution. The last post seemed to suggest holding a 2X cash position to match the bond fund duration may do the job (20% cash?). I’ll have to figure out what that means for my portfolio’s longevity.

Thanks for the post. I agree on trying to figure out something simple that my wife could understand. E.g. 2x cash + 10x bonds

Liquid NW or Total NW?

I’m guessing this is your first time in Europe?
If so, I’d keep London/UK on the list. There is so much great culture and history. Generally, cooler than southern Europe. (I was in London last summer and the weather was crazy hot…)

Going to Spain in June so I’ll report back after that

Go for longer. 2 weeks minimum. Use those PTO days!

Well done at such an early age! I would almost guarantee you’ll pick up some kind of work (for fun hopefully), if you do retire soon.

togb wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:57 pm You and your wife have already decided to do this, and I hope it works out for you. The numbers would not make me feel confident, but we're all different.

If this were not already a done deal, I'd suggest that she try a sabattical to test the idea, without giving up the job/income to return to after 3-6 months. Losing $50K in income is a big chunk out of the household income, would be nice to try living on less before making it permanent.

+1 ask DW work for all kinds of flexibity options. No harm, you may be surprised.

I had issues too. I think I ended up downloading the form to my hard drive than uploading to TT.

I’m tempted to pay for the extra review just to eyeball some of this. Perhaps TT keeps some bugs around so that they can upsell

Tricky. Honest answer is it sometimes creeps into my thinking. Especially when I’m trying to think 20-30 years in the future.

Reality is I’m not planning for anything. Given we have the only grandkids on either side, perhaps it would be nice to directly pass any inheritance to the kids who will likely benefit from it directly (if in house buying/kid raising phase of life)

A. As has been said, it’s just not worth the risk. I wish there was a risk/reward picture or quantifier to show this. So many folks (incl my team at work) don’t get this

B. It’s not worth the stress! Why wake up daily looking/anguishing over a single stock, when you can own most of the haystack and worry about other things. Like will it be coffee or tea this morning?