Search found 739 matches

by fortyofforty
Sun Jul 02, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!
Replies: 55
Views: 7356

Re: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!

I think the only factor that prevents baseline global capitalizations from being perfectly reflective of the collective views of all investors is the imperfect fluidity of capital movement. In other words, it's not as easy to invest overseas. The difference is slight for those of us in the United St...
by fortyofforty
Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Secretly entered two comma club
Replies: 44
Views: 7621

Re: Secretly entered two comma club

Congratulations, Easy Rhino, Personally, I don't count home equity for anything in my personal family balance sheet. I can't get it easily. It is stuck money. It can also evaporate, should the housing market collapse. Besides, I have to live somewhere, so if I sell this house I need to buy or rent s...
by fortyofforty
Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"
Replies: 69
Views: 6579

Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Thank you all for reminding me why I stopped coming to this site. This relentless attacking of anyone not holding "orthodox" views, or daring to challenge the prevailing BH viewpoint, is antithetical to the nature of public discourse. nedsaid, you are a better person than I for putting up with it fo...
by fortyofforty
Sun Jun 05, 2016 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value now play on global growth?
Replies: 2
Views: 349

Re: Value now play on global growth?

For me it's much easier and simpler to hold the market. I'll let people a lot smarter than me buy and sell all those individual stocks, figuring out which ones are overvalued, undervalued, fairly valued, overbought, underbought, cheap, or expensive. As if they could. I'll even add in a dose of inter...
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

That is not my thesis, nor by any quote in this or any thread could you establish it. Whereas it is easy to show that you think dividends is the only approach. Please post quotes by me that show I think dividends are the "only approach". Either that or admit you created a strawman to tear...
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

I buy at $10, the stock rises to $100, I receive a $20 dividend, the stock price eventually drops to zero, I doubled my money. Yes, this is the dividend equivalent to my example. If you are selling, you are finding the greater fool. No, I sold it to the company. I did edit to clarify this between t...
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

Can you articulate a real financial difference (using numbers) between a stock buyback of a company and a dividend? There is none. As I've said repeatedly. The result, other than taxation of the shareholders, is effectively the same. The business and its value are the same. The ability to sell the ...
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 04, 2016 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

If they jumped out in time, sure. The trick is finding that greater fool, before you end up being the last one in the chain of fools. Of course, most companies don't go completely belly-up in a normal lifetime, but some certainly do. That's the value of diversification, index funds, and a mixture o...
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 04, 2016 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

A stock that never pays cash out to owners, is valued only at the price for which you can sell its components. The stock certificate has no intrinsic value, does it? I have some old collectible stock certificates that are valued only at what a collector will pay for them. Gold is exactly the same. ...
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 04, 2016 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

I think you might have a mistaken impression of buybacks -- they aren't like stock market trading where no cash crosses in and out of the company. This really is cash going out and to shareholders, cash from company operations. Money got made and given to shareholders It's entirely possible that a ...
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 04, 2016 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

True value in terms of selling shares is all about finding someone to buy it from you. What are they buying? Future cash, or the hope of finding an even greater fool. What is the "value" of collectible stamps? An inverted Jenny can bring over a million dollars. Its face value is what, twe...
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 04, 2016 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

... The concept of "true value" seems to be elusive for many on this board. ... The only undisputed True Value is what my link in this sentence points to. All the rest is opinion, and investors do not agree with each other. You may value a stock strictly by what you think it will pay, in ...
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 04, 2016 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

For fast growing companies, this is likewise true. They need the cash to make acquisitions, new product launches, capital improvement, increasing efficiencies, expansion, increasing salaries, expanding employee benefit packages, and such. At some point (as with Apple very recently) they must decide ...
by fortyofforty
Fri Jun 03, 2016 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

Have you missed the article that showed stocks of Turkish Central Bank is effectively 0 due to it meeting all those criteria? That seems like a case of the government robbing the shareholders. It's no different in my mind than an oil company (dividend paying, most likely) being nationalized by the ...
by fortyofforty
Fri Jun 03, 2016 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

Completely true. Enron didn't pay dividends. Global Crossing didn't pay dividends. How much are their shares worth now? Why is Apple paying dividends now? Why does Buffett invest in company after company after company that pays hefty dividends? You don't want to be the last fool in the "greate...
by fortyofforty
Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

And we should remember that some companies failed to pay dividends, tanked, and disappeared, taking all their shareholders down with them. There was nobody left to buy any shares because they were worthless. So, sometimes people like dividends as a means of ensuring they at least get some of their ...
by fortyofforty
Thu Jun 02, 2016 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

And we should remember that some companies failed to pay dividends, tanked, and disappeared, taking all their shareholders down with them. There was nobody left to buy any shares because they were worthless. So, sometimes people like dividends as a means of ensuring they at least get some of their m...
by fortyofforty
Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Useless?
Replies: 154
Views: 10174

Re: Dividends Useless?

Dividends from stocks would be as useless as dividends from bonds. Dividends are dividends, and can be spent as such. The danger is if someone begins to view dividend paying stocks as "safe" while forgetting that they are still stocks. That said, everything eventually gets converted to cas...
by fortyofforty
Wed Jun 01, 2016 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for and against holding international fund
Replies: 18
Views: 2381

Re: Argument for and against holding international fund

Bogle is no fool and international is no America. I'd go into REITs and commodities for diversification before buying a bucket of international equities. But there are others of equal intellect that disagree, including some working at Vanguard. Who's right and who's wrong? Only time will tell. Ther...
by fortyofforty
Wed Jun 01, 2016 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 242
Views: 69278

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

I was 49 years old when the financial crisis hit. I was pretty scared myself, it wasn't fun seeing my retirement portfolio drop by about 35%. Two things really helped. First, I had 28% in bonds before the crash hit. That cushioned my losses a bit. Secondly I knew that if I sold at the bottom that I...
by fortyofforty
Tue May 31, 2016 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 242
Views: 69278

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

I was 49 years old when the financial crisis hit. I was pretty scared myself, it wasn't fun seeing my retirement portfolio drop by about 35%. Two things really helped. First, I had 28% in bonds before the crash hit. That cushioned my losses a bit. Secondly I knew that if I sold at the bottom that I...
by fortyofforty
Mon May 30, 2016 9:17 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Memorial Day
Replies: 7
Views: 1077

Memorial Day

Thank you to all veterans, spouses of veterans, parents of veterans, children of veterans, and siblings of veterans. Veterans and their families allow us all to enjoy the freedom to post here, and invest our hard-earned income as we wish. Here's to all of you. We remember those who didn't return hom...
by fortyofforty
Sat May 28, 2016 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 242
Views: 69278

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

There is strength in a herd, here. A Bogleherd, if you will. Well yes, there are some interesting and worthwhile ideas here. But in the end we are each going to have to make up our own minds. Just repeating a mantra or following a leader... not for me. I don't think anyone here "just repeat[s]...
by fortyofforty
Sat May 28, 2016 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 242
Views: 69278

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

For me, I did not sell in the 2008-2009 crisis (see some of my posts in the darker days of this thread). But changed my strategy well after the crisis passed. I appreciate posts on this forum a lot but I do not rely on them for my strategy because there is really no strength in herds. Or should I s...
by fortyofforty
Sat May 28, 2016 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 242
Views: 69278

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

I had written this in the opening thread in 2008 Today did it. I am just starting to be scared so that I won't tell my wife what happened today and just a couple of days ago I told my wife for the first time about what had happened then...yes, not then, but just now. I didn't want her to feel the p...
by fortyofforty
Fri May 27, 2016 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 66
Views: 13386

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

I heard Jack Bogle in a radio interview several years ago specifically recommend the Balanced Index fund as a "one fund" portfolio, as appropriate for many investors. I believe it was on the Wharton School's business channel.
by fortyofforty
Fri May 27, 2016 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 242
Views: 69278

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

Market crashes are exhilarating to those with low balances and long horizons. For people with a lot of money in volatile assets, and who aren't psychologically prepared to ride out the storm (or, better yet, buy into it), crashes are hellish. I think, having lived through several crashes and much wo...
by fortyofforty
Wed May 25, 2016 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: be my mother in law's financial advisor...or not?
Replies: 21
Views: 2601

Re: be my mother in law's financial advisor...or not?

No matter how much "extra" should would have made by following your advice, it would never compensate for losing even a dollar in a bear market while you were "in charge". Good choice to steer clear.
by fortyofforty
Mon May 23, 2016 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your first investment?
Replies: 117
Views: 7368

Re: What was your first investment?

That's a trip down (painful) memory lane. If I recall, and in no particular order, I was in Gabelli Growth (Elizabeth Bramwell), Lindner Fund (Kurt Lindner), Scudder Global Growth, and Selected American Shares (Donald Yacktman). Funny that I can still remember the names of the fund managers, in some...
by fortyofforty
Fri May 20, 2016 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone try Jason Kelly's 3Sig Investing Method?
Replies: 16
Views: 3059

Re: Anyone try Jason Kelly's 3Sig Investing Method?

I am still reading the 3Sig book. I think the approach has some value, but am not sold on the total package. Buy low. Sell high. Repeat every quarter. Lock in gains. Stockpile cash to buy on dips. When you run out of cash, hold on for the ride. It even has a prescription for what to do when you are ...
by fortyofforty
Thu May 19, 2016 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: safe alternative to stock market
Replies: 62
Views: 8106

Re: safe alternative to stock market

Who is this theoretical person? Does this theoretical person want to post his theoretical portfolio over on the Help With Personal Investments side of the board? Does the theoretical investor want to avoid fluctuation in value, or merely smooth over the inevitable fluctuations that occur naturally i...
by fortyofforty
Tue May 17, 2016 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Got a Question for Jack Bogle? Post it Here.
Replies: 88
Views: 12967

Re: Got a Question for Jack Bogle? Post it Here.

For investors managing a family's finances, having to keep in mind a somewhat disinterested spouse and his or her own mortality, are funds like Balanced Index, or one of the LifeStrategy funds an acceptable surrogate for the Three Fund portfolio?
by fortyofforty
Mon May 16, 2016 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Monster Movie
Replies: 5
Views: 1505

Re: Money Monster Movie

I would see it if I got paid to see it. Otherwise, I'll avoid it. Hollywood is in no position to point fingers at Wall Street, in my opinion. Eventually, it'll be on television and maybe I'll watch it then, for nothing.
by fortyofforty
Sun May 15, 2016 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Cramer doesn’t beat the market
Replies: 96
Views: 13806

Re: Jim Cramer doesn’t beat the market

I used to enjoy Cramer but then he started to annoy me. Now I can only take him in small doses. I will tolerate him when he's on a CNBC panel or just one of several hosts, but no way can I watch his solo show. He speaks with a bit too much certitude on individual stocks (at least he used to), and mi...
by fortyofforty
Sat May 14, 2016 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP allocation
Replies: 1
Views: 327

Re: TSP allocation

I have about 10 years left in federal service.I am 47 ,and don't plan on withdrawing my tsp until 59.I have about 62,000 balance(distribution:C fund 58.78%, S fund 23.12%, and I fund 18.1%...my allocation is 100% s fund right now to make up for my losses last year...Should I change this now, and wh...
by fortyofforty
Fri May 13, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend stocks
Replies: 175
Views: 13332

Re: dividend stocks

It is not extreme at all. It is purely logical, which is what I think is throwing you off. Guess I'm done here. I believe you are wrong, but I also believe you are not persuadable by logic or otherwise, and interactions don't appear to be a pleasant use of my time. Sorry you aren't open minded enou...
by fortyofforty
Fri May 13, 2016 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend stocks
Replies: 175
Views: 13332

Re: dividend stocks

Not used to someone who can articulate the other side, are you? Your posts are not made from a neutral POV, which is what I interpreted you to be saying. And your rather strident advocacy of what seems to many an extreme position (stocks that don't pay dividends are essentially valueless, or are st...
by fortyofforty
Fri May 13, 2016 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend stocks
Replies: 175
Views: 13332

Re: dividend stocks

As I said, I am neutral on dividends, dividend stocks, and dividend investing. The religious fervor of the anti -dividend crowd here is disturbing to say the least. If what you post is "neutral", I'd be interested to see something you are a partisan on. Not used to someone who can articul...
by fortyofforty
Fri May 13, 2016 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend stocks
Replies: 175
Views: 13332

Re: dividend stocks

Fortyofforty Last comment, what you think you know about finance is just wrong. You believe things that are simply not true. This I found to be true of many who have this "religious" belief about dividends. You can show them 2-1 =1 and they say not it's 2. As to buying lunch, that is so e...
by fortyofforty
Fri May 13, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend stocks
Replies: 175
Views: 13332

Re: dividend stocks

forty, You need to have a garage sale to get a basic lesson in economics. The value of what you own is the price that someone else will pay you for it. Let me know when you do. I'll buy all your gold coins for nothing. Since they do not pay dividends, they must be worthless. L. Perhaps you need to ...
by fortyofforty
Fri May 13, 2016 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend stocks
Replies: 175
Views: 13332

Re: dividend stocks

News report: Now that the first major oil company has slashed its dividend, what other energy companies could be planning to do so, and whose dividends are safe? ConocoPhillips on Thursday cut its quarterly dividend from 74 cents per share to 25 cents per share. Dividends are forever? Dream on. L. ...
by fortyofforty
Fri May 13, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend stocks
Replies: 175
Views: 13332

Re: dividend stocks

Which is why I say that a dividend is forever. It can't be unpaid. So, you can rely on finding greater fools to buy your stocks, or you can be rewarded forever with a dividend. If we know that a stock will never pay a dividend good luck finding someone more foolish than you to buy it. So you would ...
by fortyofforty
Fri May 13, 2016 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend stocks
Replies: 175
Views: 13332

Re: dividend stocks

Larry, sorry to have to disagree with you but you are simply wrong. You can say that a stock is worth what someone is willing to pay you for it. Just like tulip bulbs were worth many thousands of guilders. How much isa share of Enron worth today? And if you want to claim a share is valued as a piece...
by fortyofforty
Fri May 13, 2016 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend stocks
Replies: 175
Views: 13332

Re: dividend stocks

That's the greater fool theory of stock valuation. As a thought experiment, what is the value of a share of a stock you know will never pay a dividend? Let me hazard a guess: The price you can sell it for today on the New York Stock Exchange? L. That is also the value of a stock that does pay a div...
by fortyofforty
Fri May 13, 2016 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend stocks
Replies: 175
Views: 13332

Re: dividend stocks

That's the greater fool theory of stock valuation. As a thought experiment, what is the value of a share of a stock you know will never pay a dividend?
by fortyofforty
Thu May 12, 2016 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend stocks
Replies: 175
Views: 13332

Re: dividend stocks

What would be the value of a share of stock that you know will never pay a dividend?
by fortyofforty
Tue May 10, 2016 1:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Funds Worth it?
Replies: 52
Views: 8829

Re: International Funds Worth it?

International BOND funds are another story. If your goal for bonds is to provide a somewhat non-correlated asset class to balance stocks, then it might be prudent to include international bonds. They give you diversification plus bonds that are likely less correlated to any stocks you own. However, ...
by fortyofforty
Mon May 09, 2016 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Funds Worth it?
Replies: 52
Views: 8829

Re: International Funds Worth it?

By investing globally, I am rooting for the success of mankind. I believe in rewarding free markets, corporate success and personal achievement, wherever they occur. Capitalism is a system that encourages the spread of liberty, and I think it deserves to be supported; it allowed America to become th...
by fortyofforty
Sat May 07, 2016 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help talk me out of this...
Replies: 25
Views: 2511

Re: Help talk me out of this...

Active funds are a losing bet, and it just gets worse as time goes on. Check out the data. Vanguard funds are better than... ⋅ 77% of active funds over a 12 month period. ⋅ 85% of active funds over a 3 year period. ⋅ 91% of active funds over a 10 year period. m Index f...
by fortyofforty
Fri May 06, 2016 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who follows Age in Bonds
Replies: 67
Views: 8867

Re: Who follows Age in Bonds

I don't follow the "rule". My tolerance for risk is much higher than that formula would suggest.