Search found 991 matches

by fortyofforty
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Balanced Funds and Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 50
Views: 2904

Re: Balanced Funds and Sequence of Return Risk

I think I'm paying the managers of my Balanced Index Fund to use market swings, additions, and withdrawals to maintain an approximate asset allocation. If the inflows and outflows can't handle the rebalancing, then sell the winners and buy the losers in my stead to maintain the desired asset allocat...
by fortyofforty
Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7378

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

I'm curious as to why a logarithmic scale would be more beneficial than a linear one (unless nisi was making a joke, which is possible). It seems that it would only magnify the appearance of variance, while the actual difference might be slight.
by fortyofforty
Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?
Replies: 30
Views: 2228

Re: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?

There are no pure Bogleheads, even not Jack Bogle. We're all feeling our way along, the best we can, with terribly limited ability to predict the future.
by fortyofforty
Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M* article on Taylor Larimore
Replies: 6
Views: 1698

Re: M* article on Taylor Larimore

No less an authority than Jack Bogle has touted the Balanced Index Fund as a "buy and hold, forever" option. Vanguard does not, at this point, offer a true "market cap weighted" fund of funds. I'm not even certain how popular it would be. Market cap ex-U.S. and market cap bonds would probably be les...
by fortyofforty
Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone tilting heavy to international based on current forecasts?
Replies: 38
Views: 3938

Re: Anyone tilting heavy to international based on current forecasts?

I'm currently underweight international, in terms of market neutral measures. However, I'm not convinced I need or should increase my international allocation. Intellectually, I know this is probably the time to buy, as ex-U.S. has underperformed of late.
by fortyofforty
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE
Replies: 49
Views: 10736

Re: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE

Would it be fair to say the smartest "smart beta" strategy is simply to settle for beta itself?
by fortyofforty
Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stock pickers are worse at picking stocks than investors may realize, report finds."
Replies: 3
Views: 584

Re: "Stock pickers are worse at picking stocks than investors may realize, report finds."

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:47 pm
fortyofforty wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:26 pm
Thanks, Taylor. It never hurts to hear it again.
fortyofforty:
The truth must be repeated over and over again because lies are constantly being told around it. --Rick Ferri
Best wishes.
Taylor
Taylor quoting Rick. It just doesn't get better than you guys!
by fortyofforty
Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geopolitical events [Impact of recent trade policy decisions on the market]
Replies: 22
Views: 2204

Re: Geopolitical events [Impact of recent trade policy decisions on the market]

Also, is there any way to measure the negative impact tariffs are having on foreign economies? If another country levies a tariff on American imports, economists tell us that must be having a profound and negative impact on that economy, don't they? So, if it's true, why do they continue to levy tar...
by fortyofforty
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 140
Views: 20656

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

And if anyone thinks that dividends from a portfolio of a few well-chosen dividend stocks from America's greatest companies are all-but-guaranteed, and a reliable source of crash-resistant retirement income I wouldn't recommend choosing "a few" stocks of any sort for crash resistance. Someone can e...
by fortyofforty
Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geopolitical events [Impact of recent trade policy decisions on the market]
Replies: 22
Views: 2204

Re: Geopolitical events [Impact of recent trade policy decisions on the market]

Political events. Geological events. Cultural events. Astronomical events. I handle them the same way. I can't know what will happen. Many attempts at trend predictions are little better than guesses wrapped in statistics. So, I just keep investing into the storm. Sometimes the waves swell up, somet...
by fortyofforty
Tue Jun 26, 2018 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Balance Funds
Replies: 3
Views: 862

Re: Vanguard's Balance Funds

Nobody knows nothin'. Everybody was losing their heads about rising bond yields and how big a hit long term bonds would take. Yesterday I heard chatter about rates not rising, either as fast as "experts" had predicted or to the levels "experts" had predicted. The bond market reacts like the stock ma...
by fortyofforty
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency
Replies: 19
Views: 1252

Re: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency

If everyone indexed, the prices would essentially be "set" on the very last trade. Then, prices of all stocks would move up in proportion to the overall inflow of new cash, minus the outflow of cash as people needed the money. However, there will always be people who try to outguess the market, or g...
by fortyofforty
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Surveys
Replies: 47
Views: 3072

Re: Vanguard Surveys

I responded to the first one, before I discovered that all the questions revolved around an investor's views on where interest rates are headed, or what future stock market returns will be, and things like that. It's a bit silly from a company founded by a man who oft-repeated a story whose tenet is...
by fortyofforty
Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Surveys
Replies: 47
Views: 3072

Re: Vanguard Surveys

Another request came today. Here is the body of the request, sent from vanguard@eonline.e-vanguard.com: Vanguard would like your input Dear [FortyofForty]: As you may recall from a previous email, Vanguard is conducting a study to understand how investors are thinking about the future of the stock m...
by fortyofforty
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Money Talk" Radio Program with Bob Brinker
Replies: 15
Views: 1806

Re: "Money Talk" Radio Program with Bob Brinker

I don't so much mind the commercials. One way or the other, things are paid for, even "commercial free" radio. Like everything else, when I do listen to Brinker, or Ramsey, or Watchdog on Wall Street, or Suze Orman, or Motley Fool, or Cramer, or any other program, I try to weed out the bad or questi...
by fortyofforty
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how can i determine if Wellington only takes long stock positions?
Replies: 9
Views: 469

Re: how can i determine if Wellington only takes long stock positions?

Often, funds will allow themselves to do things like short stocks, or use leverage, but choose not to use such methods. You might request the SAR, to see exactly what's allowed. At a certain point, you are entrusting your money to fund managers to do with it what they deem appropriate. That's anothe...
by fortyofforty
Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversified portfolio but still too much Apple, Microsoft, etc.
Replies: 13
Views: 1516

Re: Diversified portfolio but still too much Apple, Microsoft, etc.

You could always add a portion of your portfolio to an additional small capitalization fund, or SCV. You are, by definition, overweighting those other stocks, based on a "market neutral" approach. That doesn't say it's wrong, just that you are trying to outguess "the market" and its free-float marke...
by fortyofforty
Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8
Replies: 65
Views: 5551

Re: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8

Another interesting tidbit. At one point, Jack cites the Balanced Index Fund as one investment a person could buy and hold forever, without worrying about the percentage of stocks and bonds. Just buy and forget. He said only time will tell if it's a winning investment strategy. Many here would stron...
by fortyofforty
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8
Replies: 65
Views: 5551

Re: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8

Monkeyboy wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:34 am
Did some of the people on this thread watch a different show? I never saw Maria interupt Jack Bogle once! I thought it was a good interview!
Some people see what they expect to see.
by fortyofforty
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8
Replies: 65
Views: 5551

Re: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8

Getting to watch the interview again this morning. Still going on as I write. Jack said something like, "A lot of trading goes on in ETF-land. That's not such a good thing." There are a lot of nuggets in Jack Bogle's interview. Maria Bartiromo so far has let Jack Bogle speak for quite a while, and w...
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8
Replies: 65
Views: 5551

Re: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8

(b) that Maria chose to have him as a guest. Unfortunately, most of her guests are closely associated with Wall Street. Yup. Maria is known as "Money Honey" in the Wall Street Banks. She was known as that when she worked for NBC. I haven't heard her called that in years. Try googling 'Money Honey'....
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8
Replies: 65
Views: 5551

Re: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8

I can't imagine why a show called Maria Bartiromo's Wall Street would actually cover, well, Wall Street. :wink:
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8
Replies: 65
Views: 5551

Re: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8

Frankly, I was surprised that (a) Jack agreed to be on this Fox program and, (b) that Maria chose to have him as a guest. Unfortunately, most of her guests are closely associated with Wall Street. But when she began her questions loaded with the oft-repeated criticisms of indexing, I understood. I ...
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8
Replies: 65
Views: 5551

Re: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8

AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:22 am
Retired1809 wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:09 pm
(b) that Maria chose to have him as a guest. Unfortunately, most of her guests are closely associated with Wall Street.
Yup. Maria is known as "Money Honey" in the Wall Street Banks.
She was known as that when she worked for NBC. I haven't heard her called that in years.
by fortyofforty
Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8
Replies: 65
Views: 5551

Re: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8

Excuse me, how do I change my password??? I haven't found a FAQ on this. Every time I try to log on, I have to ask for a new password and this is frustrating. Help, please? Retired1809 You see your I'd on the upper right side, there you go to edit your profile, account settings, there you enter a n...
by fortyofforty
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE
Replies: 49
Views: 10736

Re: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE

Given your propensity to favor the simple over the complex, how would you rate the federal government's Thrift Savings Plan in terms of investment choices? Is it near to your ideal for a retirement plan?
by fortyofforty
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8
Replies: 65
Views: 5551

Re: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8

How insightful. Always amazingly clear, concise, and logical.
by fortyofforty
Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8
Replies: 65
Views: 5551

Re: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8

Yes, I'm very much looking forward to it. Go, Jack, go!
by fortyofforty
Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost
Replies: 30
Views: 3881

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost

JoeRetire wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:17 pm
fortyofforty wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:37 am
If you haven't seen it for yourself, I can't help you.
You have to use your third eye...
Only need two. And reading comprehension. Might escape some, though.
by fortyofforty
Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost
Replies: 30
Views: 3881

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost

Forty forty, If you are talking about me, don’t understand at all how you can accuse me of being certain about something unknowable. I’ve promoted diversifying across factors and sources of return because I have no clue which factors will perform well and when. One of the reasons I use an advisor i...
by fortyofforty
Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost
Replies: 30
Views: 3881

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost

If you haven't seen it for yourself, I can't help you.
by fortyofforty
Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost
Replies: 30
Views: 3881

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-financial-illiteracys-high-cost Larry reviews the tragic lack of financial education and literacy in our society. He provides some statistics that support this thesis and then goes on to review a study that looked at the relationship between...
by fortyofforty
Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best case to convert a Bogle skeptic?
Replies: 56
Views: 4981

Re: Best case to convert a Bogle skeptic?

As tough as it is, I agree with the posters who suggest just living with it while your father is alive. Sure, it's worthwhile reducing the fees, if at all possible. You might also compare the days when advisers like your father provided real value to investors, and today, when advisers only have acc...
by fortyofforty
Sun Jun 03, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8
Replies: 65
Views: 5551

Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8

This Friday evening, June 8, 2018, on Fox Business channel, Jack Bogle is scheduled to appear on Maria Bartiromo's Wall Street. It should air at 8:00 p.m., at least on the East Coast. My DVR is set.
by fortyofforty
Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance
Replies: 65
Views: 8978

Re: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance

Meh. I'll just keep DCAing my way to wealth, and play around the edges with such experiments. Bon chance! :beer
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a Really Bad Day, Time to Buy
Replies: 46
Views: 4647

Re: It's a Really Bad Day, Time to Buy

Very interesting, rbaldini.
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 220
Views: 17853

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

My thread is not about livesoft's criteria. It is open to all posters, who might have their own individual criteria for deciding what constitutes a Really Bad Day. I thought this was Bogleheads, not livesoftheads. I was deferring to Boglehead "fortyofforty" who said: "As the one labeled the "primar...
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a Really Bad Day, Time to Buy
Replies: 46
Views: 4647

Re: It's a Really Bad Day, Time to Buy

Being logged in for 6 and a half hours a day sounds like a lot of work. Fortunately I was able to rebalance yesterday; My login records show I was logged into my brokerage account for exactly 4 minutes to execute the paired sell/buy of bonds/equities. I got excellent deals. Of course, I won't stop ...
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 220
Views: 17853

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

Would it be possible to .... Go ahead. You can do this yourself. Done. As the one labeled the "primary RBD advocate around here", I look to you to lead the charge! Unable to actually "sticky" a thread, though, which is quite different from simply starting a thread. Only a moderator can do that, as ...
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 220
Views: 17853

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

livesoft wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 4:51 pm
Don't forget to announce your RBDs and describe explicitly what your criteria are for RBDs.
Or just talk about the ones past, and how we would have bought big on those days.
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a Really Bad Day, Time to Buy
Replies: 46
Views: 4647

Re: When ...

I don't follow. The Dow is up 1.37% today, as of this writing. That's because the thread title should actually be: "When today is a Really Bad Day for X, post here before market closes please" (I think the requested 2 pm deadline is ridiculous.) Given that the market fluctuates sometimes many perce...
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 220
Views: 17853

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

Would it be possible to .... Go ahead. You can do this yourself. Done. As the one labeled the "primary RBD advocate around here", I look to you to lead the charge! Unable to actually "sticky" a thread, though, which is quite different from simply starting a thread. Only a moderator can do that, as ...
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 220
Views: 17853

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

Of course. And I'm sure even you can admit that one person's Really Bad Day is not necessarily another person's RBD, or that the decision of what daily percentage drop constitutes a RBD is somewhat arbitrary. It's not something embarrassing to note this, so of course I "admit" it. Livesoft is the p...
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 220
Views: 17853

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

Why? The rules are linked just above and are prescriptive (they also do not change). Plus, some people own different assets; as we saw yesterday, a RGD for one asset (TLT - iShares Long-term Treasury) can be a RBD for another (FNDE - Schwab EM Value) or nothing at all for another (VOO - Vanguard S&...
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a Really Bad Day, Time to Buy
Replies: 46
Views: 4647

Re: It's a Really Bad Day, Time to Buy

livesoft wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 11:13 am
Hmmm, this might cut into my paid newsletter subscriptions. :twisted: But that's OK.
Let's lock 'em in.
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 220
Views: 17853

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

Seems like waiting and only buying on RBDs is a winning long term strategy. Or is it? Are RBDs often followed by RBWs or RBMs? Is dollar cost averaging and not trying to time your purchases based on daily fluctuations better for Bogleheads seeking long term results? Seems like a pretty legitimate q...
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a Really Bad Day, Time to Buy
Replies: 46
Views: 4647

It's a Really Bad Day, Time to Buy

Here is the requested thread: When it's a Really Bad Day, please post your contention that it makes sense to buy stocks today as opposed to yesterday or tomorrow. And, please make sure you post before 2:00 p.m. Eastern time, so that those hypothetically purchasing mutual funds can lock in their "buy...
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 220
Views: 17853

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

Would it be possible to start a stickied thread in which we ask the RBD experts to declare, before 2:00 p.m., what constitutes a Really Bad Day? That way we could all see, clearly and publicly, whether they are truly able to make meaningful market calls. We could ask them to declare the Really Good...
by fortyofforty
Wed May 30, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 220
Views: 17853

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

Would it be possible to start a stickied thread in which we ask the RBD experts to declare, before 2:00 p.m., what constitutes a Really Bad Day? That way we could all see, clearly and publicly, whether they are truly able to make meaningful market calls. We could ask them to declare the Really Good...