Search found 2583 matches

by fredflinstone
Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion of HNW Portfolio [High Net Worth]
Replies: 33
Views: 4401

Re: Opinion of HNW Portfolio [High Net Worth]

OP, your portfolio looks good to me. Add some gold and it will be perfection.
by fredflinstone
Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sapporo Snow Festival
Replies: 5
Views: 658

Re: Sapporo Snow Festival

We are thinking of attending in 2020 and wondering whether tsome in the BH community may have attended in the past, and whether recommendations can be offered regarding: 1. High-end hotels or ryokan 2. How best to plan and enjoy the festival Many thanks for your informed recommendations! Had not he...
by fredflinstone
Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?
Replies: 238
Views: 21023

Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

I feel pessimistic about the stock market. I've felt this way for most of the last 10 years and mostly I've been wrong.
by fredflinstone
Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any 529 abusers here ?
Replies: 38
Views: 5038

Re: Any 529 abusers here ?

In my state, 529 funds are protected from creditors. So 529 plans are an excellent asset protection vehicle. Also, I get a modest break on my state income taxes when I deposit money in a 529. I don't "abuse" 529s, but I have deliberately "overfunded" them (i.e. there is more money in them than my ch...
by fredflinstone
Sat May 30, 2020 4:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Del Webb 55+ communities?
Replies: 27
Views: 4439

Re: Del Webb 55+ communities?

I am familiar with Rossmoor, Walnut Creek, Calif. It's a large 55+ community with about 9,200 residents. Very pretty. Gets warm (upper 80s) in the summer but the weather is temperate the rest of the year. Tons of social activities. Quite safe. Seems like a great place to live. I read somewhere that ...
by fredflinstone
Thu May 21, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4645

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

Maybe the future is stagflation, in which case both markets would be wrong.
by fredflinstone
Sat May 16, 2020 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 229
Views: 11813

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Cardless digital transactions are increasingly common through apps such as Apple Pay and Google Pay. From Korea to Kenya, people increasingly pay for stuff using a phone -- no credit card needed (as far as I know) and definitely no cash needed. I gather people are still transacting in a digital ver...
by fredflinstone
Fri May 15, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18578

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I've heard variations of this argment since joining this Forum 10 years ago. The argument was wrong then and is wrong now.

By the way, at 1.3% yield, US 30-year treasuries are a bargain compared to Swiss 10-year treasuries (current yield of -0.554%).
by fredflinstone
Tue May 12, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hang on to old car or buy new one?
Replies: 38
Views: 2208

Re: Hang on to old car or buy new one?

go_mets wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 9:22 am
Sandtrap wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:35 am
Option 3
Swap cars??

j🌺
+1

more reliable car for the daughter

I have a Honda Accord with nearly 220K miles on it; the Acura has more life in it.

.
I am leaning toward this. What a simple, elegant solution.
by fredflinstone
Tue May 12, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hang on to old car or buy new one?
Replies: 38
Views: 2208

Re: Hang on to old car or buy new one?

I think either option sounds ok. Realistically though you are swaying the cost analysis by counting the maintenance on the Acura, but ignoring the maintenance that will be required of both the Honda and whatever newer vehicle you buy. As noted, most of the costs you recently incurred were maintenan...
by fredflinstone
Tue May 12, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hang on to old car or buy new one?
Replies: 38
Views: 2208

Re: Hang on to old car or buy new one?

Sandtrap wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:35 am
Option 3
Swap cars??

j🌺
very good idea. I hadn't thought of this.
by fredflinstone
Tue May 12, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hang on to old car or buy new one?
Replies: 38
Views: 2208

Re: Hang on to old car or buy new one?

Dandy wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 7:16 am
I like the idea of giving your daughter your car and you a newer car. Don't forget safety for you or especially your daughter since she drives a lot. Newer models often have improved safety features.
Yes, that is what I am thinking. Thanks.
by fredflinstone
Tue May 12, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hang on to old car or buy new one?
Replies: 38
Views: 2208

Re: Hang on to old car or buy new one?

How is the acura costing you $2k/year in repairs? Is it a lemon? That car has low miles and isnt that old...how can it possibly cost that much per year to maintain? I hope you're not including the cost of insurance and fuel. We have 3 cars...newest is a 2009 with 99K miles, My daily driver is 2008 ...
by fredflinstone
Tue May 12, 2020 5:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hang on to old car or buy new one?
Replies: 38
Views: 2208

Hang on to old car or buy new one?

My daughter Pebbles is driving a 2010 Acura MDX with 130,000 miles on it. She drives a fair amount. We are not handy, so we take the car to a mechanic for repairs. We are incurring repair expenses of about $1,500 per year for this and that. I drive a 2017 Honda CRV with about 50,000 miles on it. Her...
by fredflinstone
Mon May 11, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 229
Views: 11813

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

The compelling case against bitcoin is it is no good for the things Satoshi Nakamoto said it would be good for. He called it "a cash system" in Bitcoin: a Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, . He said that the case for it is that Commerce on the Internet has come to rely almost exclusively on fina...
by fredflinstone
Mon May 11, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 229
Views: 11813

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Cardless digital transactions are increasingly common through apps such as Apple Pay and Google Pay. From Korea to Kenya, people increasingly pay for stuff using a phone -- no credit card needed (as far as I know) and definitely no cash needed. I gather people are still transacting in a digital vers...
by fredflinstone
Mon May 11, 2020 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Simple question. Many answers?
Replies: 16
Views: 1521

Re: Simple question. Many answers?

It is a good idea to put money in a CD rather than a bond fund. The CD has a higher expected return with much less risk, provided you stay below the threshold for FDIC insurance coverage. Some people who avoid CDs do so becuase it is an administrative hassle, especialy for people who are very wealt...
by fredflinstone
Sun May 10, 2020 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to add ballast to a taxable account?
Replies: 26
Views: 2599

Re: How to add ballast to a taxable account?

Read up on the Permanent Portfolio. Basically, there are four major asset classes: stocks, bonds (long-term treasuries), gold, and cash. If you want a portfolio with ballast, you should own all four. At the moment, all four are pretty good in a taxable account. Here are the current (approximate) div...
by fredflinstone
Sun May 10, 2020 6:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Simple question. Many answers?
Replies: 16
Views: 1521

Re: Simple question. Many answers?

It is a good idea to put money in a CD rather than a bond fund. The CD has a higher expected return with much less risk, provided you stay below the threshold for FDIC insurance coverage. Some people who avoid CDs do so becuase it is an administrative hassle, especialy for people who are very wealth...
by fredflinstone
Tue May 05, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [thinking about buying a house in LA, wait for RE crash?]
Replies: 66
Views: 4735

Re: do you expect there to be a housing market crash? If so, when?

I thought prices would have fallen by now. I even wrote a post a few weeks ago called "Deflation is everywhere." But I try to keep an open mind and the reality is that home prices have not fallen in my neighborhood. Only a few houses have sold in recent weeks and none were deeply discounted. Will pr...
by fredflinstone
Fri May 01, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 9112

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

fatFIRE wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 3:37 pm
I still have protect against hyperinflation and US monetary collapse in my investment statement. Definitely sticking to my SV-tilt.

Nobody remembers 2008?
I suspect small value stocks won't perform well if there is hyperinflation. Gold will.
by fredflinstone
Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"
Replies: 121
Views: 5147

Re: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"

livesoft wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:20 pm
I don't think anyone was able to use their gold bars to buy toilet paper recently.
livesoft, as it happens I have quite a bit of toilet paper. I would be willing to trade all of it to you in exchange for a gold bar. Deal?
by fredflinstone
Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"
Replies: 121
Views: 5147

Re: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"

Nummerkins wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:08 pm
I would not. If "the worst" were to happen, what exactly does gold do for you? You can't eat it. It doesn't grow anything. Who would want it?
I have a lot of ammo. If the price were right, I'd trade ammo for gold.
by fredflinstone
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4320

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

I appreciate the response, but I did not say stocks will outperform. You literally said: "I would bet on corporate earnings,and therefore equity returns rising over the long term. I therefore think owning a total-stock market index fund is virtually always a better long-term investment decision tha...
by fredflinstone
Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4320

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

I would bet on corporate earnings,and therefore equity returns rising over the long term. I therefore think owning a total-stock market index fund is virtually always a better long-term investment decision than owning gold. Gold is up 527.31% in the last 20 years. How have stocks fared? What a capt...
by fredflinstone
Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: LT muni vs. LT treasury
Replies: 15
Views: 877

Re: LT muni vs. LT treasury

mass_biker wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:33 am
All - many thanks for the responses.

Question - are folks utilizing the Permanent Portfolio weightings in their real life portfolio mixes? I have some of the building blocks. Considering taking the plunge.
Yes. My real-world portfolio is in my signature line below.
by fredflinstone
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4320

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

whereskyle wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:36 pm
I would bet on corporate earnings,and therefore equity returns rising over the long term. I therefore think owning a total-stock market index fund is virtually always a better long-term investment decision than owning gold.
Gold is up 527.31% in the last 20 years. How have stocks fared?
by fredflinstone
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4320

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

Many Bogleheads also fail to look at a portfolio such as the one you've proposed in their totality. They think "LTTs are volatile and will probably go down, so it's a bad idea to own them." Let's deconstruct this: "LTTs are volatile." Of course the reason LTTS are great when they are paired with equ...
by fredflinstone
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4320

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

Many Bogleheads hate gold and long-term bonds because they are sure--absolutely sure--stocks will perform better than gold and LTTs over the next 20 or 30 years. This is based on the very long-term historical performance of stocks vs. bonds vs. gold as well as their unconscious biases. The reality i...
by fredflinstone
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: considering pausing my global REIT allocation
Replies: 18
Views: 881

Re: considering pausing my global REIT allocation

I know, I know..... market timing, what does your IPS say, there won't be a green light as to when to unpause it, etc. I wouldn't sell and go to cash. I would sell and go to VT or ACWI for more diversification. Just thinking a real estate sector tilt (~35% commercial).... even with the >30% drop th...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 866
Views: 58543

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

It's clear in hindsight that was a great decision to make last fall! Now, with near-zero yields, how do you see their future prospects? Try to think about portfolios in their totality, not whether this asset or that asset will perform well or poorly. I am and do. My point is that I'm not sure wheth...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I need financial/general advice
Replies: 47
Views: 2994

Re: I need financial/general advice

An intelligent person would have better odds of success as a professional poker player.
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is doing a barbell bond strategy now an OK move?
Replies: 47
Views: 2368

Re: Is doing a barbell bond strategy now an OK move?

Again, thanks to all of you who replied. Below is my new AA. What say you? Total Stock Market Index (VTSAX) 20% CDs 20% Inflation-Protected Sec. Index (VAIPX) 20% Core Bond (VCOBX) 20% Intermed.-Term Bond Index (VBILX) 20% I will cut back on plans to DCA, and I'll try to achieve the above AA by yea...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 866
Views: 58543

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

How about keeping it simple and just using the total US bond market? Good enough? How did that work out when stocks were plunging last month? Do you see now why some of us prefer long-term treasuries? In March, TBM was down 0.58% while TSM was down -13.77%. How did LTTs do in March? Wouldn't you pr...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4320

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

You are late to the game. You should have started accumulating gold in 2004. If I were going to speculate I'd buy beat down stocks. "I have been steadily accumulating gold, which had previously been 0% of my portfolio." I wish I had started in 2004, but gold has done very well for me, thank you.
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???
Replies: 85
Views: 6762

Re: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???

I’d sell them and invest in thE 3 fund portfolio for maximum diversification. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio The 3-fund portfolio does not maximize diversification. It omits two of the four major asset classes. Are you referring to Total International Bonds and Commodities? Ac...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is doing a barbell bond strategy now an OK move?
Replies: 47
Views: 2368

Re: Is doing a barbell bond strategy now an OK move?

Again, thanks to all of you who replied. Below is my new AA. What say you? Total Stock Market Index (VTSAX) 20% CDs 20% Inflation-Protected Sec. Index (VAIPX) 20% Core Bond (VCOBX) 20% Intermed.-Term Bond Index (VBILX) 20% I will cut back on plans to DCA, and I'll try to achieve the above AA by yea...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 866
Views: 58543

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

How did LTTs do in March? Wouldn't you prefer bonds that rally when stocks go down, as opposed to bonds that go down when stocks go down? It didn't perform as what I would have expected. https://i.postimg.cc/tTyRvxLP/VGLT.jpg LTTs were up in March. The LTT rally started on Feb 21 just as stocks beg...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4320

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

More equities! Over 50% of this portfolio will not make much money over time. How can you be so sure? Over the last 20 years, both gold and long-term treasuries handily outperformed stocks. If this is true, then why haven't you had to sell gold and buy stocks to re-balance? This is the source of my...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 866
Views: 58543

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Does it still make sense to add new money to LTTs now? Yes. After further reading and observation, I am sold on LTT for my equity heavy portfolio. I personally prefer mutual funds over ETFs, but I don't have the millions needed to get the MF version of EDV :D ... I wonder if VLGSX (MF version of VG...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4320

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

More equities! Over 50% of this portfolio will not make much money over time. How can you be so sure? Over the last 20 years, both gold and long-term treasuries handily outperformed stocks. That's interesting! I never would have guessed that Treasuries would outperform stocks? :confused Most Bogleh...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 866
Views: 58543

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

I have been living this advice for the past year, ever since I saw the LTT Light. It has paid off handsomely, to say the least. Both in terms of absolute return and equity risk mitigation. It clicked for me last fall. I've been delighted with my LTTs. Both in terms of absolute return and equity ris...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 866
Views: 58543

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

How about keeping it simple and just using the total US bond market? Good enough? How did that work out when stocks were plunging last month? Do you see now why some of us prefer long-term treasuries? I remember thinking about EDV as part of my portfolio in the late 2000s/early 2010s. I decided aga...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 866
Views: 58543

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

How about keeping it simple and just using the total US bond market? Good enough? How did that work out when stocks were plunging last month? Do you see now why some of us prefer long-term treasuries? In March, TBM was down 0.58% while TSM was down -13.77%. How did LTTs do in March? Wouldn't you pr...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 866
Views: 58543

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Noobvestor's concern in that thread is irrelevant. If you got rid of the "massive jump" all three blue lines would decline by the same proportion, ending up with the same conclusion - the long term bond fund still delivers the least variable end result of any of the three funds. I'm not sure I foll...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 866
Views: 58543

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

anon_investor wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:23 pm
Does it still make sense to add new money to LTTs now?
Yes.
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 866
Views: 58543

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

We haven't really touched on tax efficient placement yet for this rule of thumb. The prevailing recommendation is against holding LTTs in taxable accounts -- let's use EDV as an extreme example. But if one were limited on tax advantaged space, would you alter this recommendation? There is nothing w...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 866
Views: 58543

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

bck63 wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:50 am
How about keeping it simple and just using the total US bond market? Good enough?
How did that work out when stocks were plunging last month? Do you see now why some of us prefer long-term treasuries?
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 866
Views: 58543

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

I have been living this advice for the past year, ever since I saw the LTT Light. It has paid off handsomely, to say the least. Both in terms of absolute return and equity risk mitigation. It clicked for me last fall. I've been delighted with my LTTs. Both in terms of absolute return and equity ris...
by fredflinstone
Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is doing a barbell bond strategy now an OK move?
Replies: 47
Views: 2368

Re: Is doing a barbell bond strategy now an OK move?

I'm mostly stock (15%), CDs (50%) and cash (35%) right now, having moved the muni money into CDs (short-term) and cash. I was thinking about moving to 33% stock, 18% CDs and nearly all the rest in corporate and treasury bonds. So under your plan it would be: 33% stock 18% CDs 12.25% long-term treas...