Search found 2053 matches

by BW1985
Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morgan Stanley AMEX Platinum
Replies: 13
Views: 2494

Re: Morgan Stanley AMEX Platinum

Cancelling it once the year is up. It’s not worth it now that interest rates are paying more than the fee waiver. I get the lounge access from the business platinum anyways so there’s no point in keeping it.
by BW1985
Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring early from windfall, mid 30s, what is the correct asset allocation to use?
Replies: 125
Views: 20597

Re: Retiring early from windfall, mid 30s, what is the correct asset allocation to use?

To an extent I get the idea, but I believe by your mid 30’s you by and large know who you are and what you want. You’re not 22 anymore, those days are long gone.
by BW1985
Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring early from windfall, mid 30s, what is the correct asset allocation to use?
Replies: 125
Views: 20597

Re: Retiring early from windfall, mid 30s, what is the correct asset allocation to use?

firefighter973 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:10 pm
masonstone wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:08 pm
cflannagan wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:54 pm
masonstone wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:34 pm At his age 3.5MM
Based on what formula? 2.7% SWR seems way too conservative, especially for someone who has no kids (no heir to leave money to)
He’s in his mid 30s. That can easily change with an accident at his age.
Had a vasectomy at age 20. Kids isn't happening :)

And before you say... "You might change your mind if you meet a girl..."
Nope! I'd leave the girl immediately in that case. That may sound cold, but it's my life too and I'm 100% certain on what I want.
I’m curious OP, any decisions made yet?
by BW1985
Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Review: Mark Zoril - Planvisionmn
Replies: 75
Views: 15923

Re: Review: Mark Zoril - Planvisionmn

I recently signed up with PlanVision. My intent was to get a second set of eyes to validate my FIRE calculations. I like the EMoney tool because IMO, it accommodates FIRE planning much better than the free tools I've seen out there. I found the 'pre-planning' session with Jason helpful. Based on his input, I tweaked my retirement spend amounts to be more realistic. I previously just had $x per year for retirement spending. He advised that I break it out to more accurately reflect real life. e.g. $x for base spending, $y for travel given that we realistically won't travel to the same extent for all ~50 years of retirement. The same for some athletic hobby spending. For the actual planning session with Mark, we just went through the numbers ...
by BW1985
Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

I sold enough at $380 today that Gamestop could go to 0 and I'd have still doubled my original investment. We'll see if I don't chicken out by Friday when it's possible for another gamma squeeze. I'm getting cold feet too.. might be time to take some off the table. HOLD. The point isn't to make money, grinding time in low ER index funds is how we make money. In this battle we need to make the hedge funds suffer. Drive them to bankruptcy. I consider the play money I put into this battle to be a donation to that cause. :beer How many shares do you have for that sentiment? If it's thousands then I applaud your diamond hands. If not, then I wouldn't be making fun of us paper handed people taking money off the table. I didn't think it was possi...
by BW1985
Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

imflyboy wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:00 pm
lostdog wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:07 pm Elon Musk tweeted about it.
What’s crazy to me is some ex-SEC guy was on CNBC calling for a 10 day trading halt.
lol. Nice try dude, you don't get to just make up the rules as you go if you're losing the game.
by BW1985
Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

atdharris wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:51 pm I wonder just how high this can go by Friday. I hate myself for not buying 10 shares at $80, but I am not sure I want to jump in at $200+. I say that and it could go to $1000 for all we know. But I think by then, the SEC may shut it down.
Shut it down on what basis? This is how the market works.
by BW1985
Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

i saw an interesting comment elsewhere which I think is true: the younger / crowd source / linked / video game mob generation has figured out an angle in the investing world and identified how to beat the 'players' at their own game. they are merciless and have a 'moral code' all their own. i could easily see more of this happening. i think it's hilarious. it's crowd sourced 'pump and dump' with specific targets in mind. the 'old guard' better beware. --------------------------------- But many in that exact group are unfortunately going to be left broke. It's a hard lesson they'll learn. Yep that's the risk you take when you play individual stocks and I think everyone knows this. If it happens I won't be feeling sorry for anyone.
by BW1985
Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Imbros wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:46 pm What if the shorting Hedge Funds decide to cut their losses and announce that they have lost this battle. Then what happens to the stock price?
Immediately would shoot up I think because they'd have to purchase all those shares to cover their shorts. That's the squeeze.
by BW1985
Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

decapod10 wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:55 pm
Corsair wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:49 pm
Imbros wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:46 pm What if the shorting Hedge Funds decide to cut their losses and announce that they have lost this battle. Then what happens to the stock price?
Per Twitter they doubled down today...
Currently trading at $220 on After Hours :shock: We'll see if their confidence gets rewarded. My understanding is that Melvin Capital is one of the biggest GME shorts, I think they may be in serious financial trouble.
They already were yesterday, they had to get bailed out by 2.75B outside investment.
by BW1985
Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

JonnyDVM wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:41 pm
ccf wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:39 pm I'm seeing conflicting reports of when the selling is supposed to take place.

Is it $420.69, $1000, $10000 or never?
So my understanding is the squeeze can force the price to infinity so I set a limit order at "infinity -1" to get ahead of everyone else
^This guy meme stocks.
by BW1985
Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

anon_investor wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:35 pm
Corsair wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:33 pm
anon_investor wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:32 pm Hope everyone playing understands estimated tax payments...
Most on WSB stick to Roth accounts from my understanding.
Then good luck to them, hopefully they do not lose $. I had a coworker who day traded in a TIRA and lost $60k last year...
They don't call it YOLO for nothin'. WSB skews pretty young, if they go broke they're not doing irreparable damage.
by BW1985
Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

MindBogler wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:45 am There are two narratives in competition here. Isn't this what the market is all about? I think this one ends in SEC investigation. The shorts are up to foul play here with short percent in excess of float.
It should, I don't know that it will though. The big players tend to just get away with whatever they want.
by BW1985
Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Tester83 wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:39 am
aktx97 wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:34 am
denovo wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:29 am
aktx97 wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:04 pm cc: "Anti-Boglehead Confessions"
I am surprised how many people on this forum have admitted to buying gamestop.
I know many have small active trading positions. Like 10%-ish
Fun money, right? To some people, this is fun.

Is there a serious belief that folks posting herein are placing significant sums at risk such that it would jeopardize their retirement plans? Doubt it.
Yes this is fairly common even among BH's to have a small piece of their portfolio (~5%) for speculation aka fun money.
by BW1985
Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:05 pm Shorting stocks isn't illegal
Shorting isn't, naked short selling is.
by BW1985
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TurboTax
Replies: 21
Views: 2460

Re: TurboTax

I've always used Deluxe. I think it'll tell you what version is required for your specific tax situation.
by BW1985
Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

tiburblium wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:54 pm Well, Tesla was bid up to insane prices which will never be justified and its price is still sky high. Why cant the same thing happen to other meme stonks like kodk, nio, gme, snow, etc
TSLA is running strong on hope and dreams optimism. If the others can generate that then they can stay sky high too.
by BW1985
Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

hicabob wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:33 pm Supposedly over 100% of gme float has been shorted which leads to interesting possibilities. I always though such "naked shorts" were illegal but they seem to happen occasionally? Certainly an impressive short squeeze.
Naked short selling was made illegal after GFC but I think there are loopholes. And if the SEC doesn't actually punish naked short sellers than there's no deterrent anyways.
by BW1985
Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 400848

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Here is something funny: I have some shares of Bed Bath Beyond in my fun portfolio (a small fraction of our NW). I bought them last Spring for under $10 when it was supposed to go out of business. This morning, I saw it jumped by 50%, to $45, then fell back again. I thought WTH is going on, I mean this is the most boring company in the country, right? I was wondering why those extreme jumps. There were no news from the company. Now after reading this thread, it occurred to me: I suspect people actually wanted to buy BB (Blackberry), and the ticker for Bed Bath Beyond (BBBY) sounds rather like Blackberry. Anyway that's the only explanation I can think of! Unfortunately, I missed the chance to sell my BBBY shares to those folks at the inflat...
by BW1985
Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with brokerage cost basis
Replies: 3
Views: 358

Re: Help with brokerage cost basis

Makefile wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:17 pm Were any of them before 2012?

And yeah you want to use specific identification, not average cost. As long as you've never sold anything, I believe you can go in and switch and the next morning it will have all the basis information.
2013 was my first purchase.

I've never sold anything, just went in and changed from average cost to spec ID.

THANKS!!

:sharebeer
by BW1985
Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with brokerage cost basis
Replies: 3
Views: 358

Help with brokerage cost basis

I have a Vanguard taxable account that I've made a few lump sum purchases over the years (vtsax/vtiax). I've never paid attention to the cost basis or changed any settings on the site. Is there a way for me to check my cost basis if I wanted to sell?

Moving forward, for new purchases should I be doing something differently?
by BW1985
Fri Jan 15, 2021 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring early from windfall, mid 30s, what is the correct asset allocation to use?
Replies: 125
Views: 20597

Re: Retiring early from windfall, mid 30s, what is the correct asset allocation to use?

1andDone wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:19 pm
ponyboy wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:13 pm Keep working. You currently do not have enough.
lol, seriously? Only in this crazy Bogleheads bubble world is $2.5M not enough to retire on with a $50k/year mid-range budget.
Yeah lol. 3% is a very conservative SWR. That's $75k/year, more than the median HHI in the US. :confused
by BW1985
Fri Jan 15, 2021 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring early from windfall, mid 30s, what is the correct asset allocation to use?
Replies: 125
Views: 20597

Re: Retiring early from windfall, mid 30s, what is the correct asset allocation to use?

firefighter973 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:19 pm
ponyboy wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:13 pm Keep working. You currently do not have enough.
Looking at my budget, I think I have much more than needed already.
You do. People on this site are conservative to a fault, IMO.
by BW1985
Fri Jan 15, 2021 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why isn't every indexer investing in small cap value index funds?
Replies: 372
Views: 46005

Re: Why isn't every indexer investing in small cap value index funds?

It requires a strong conviction that history will repeat itself and SCV will eventually outperform over time. I have no such conviction so I do not tilt to SCV, or any segment for that matter.
The academic studies and French-Fama model prove that investing in small cap value provides better returns.
Provided. Past tense. We do not know the future.
by BW1985
Fri Jan 15, 2021 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Options for healthcare during FIRE (but before 65)?
Replies: 141
Views: 13376

Re: Options for healthcare during FIRE (but before 65)?

Medicaid or ACA, depending on state and MAGI.
by BW1985
Fri Jan 15, 2021 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for stats: Average/Median age when $1M networth (household) is attained?
Replies: 65
Views: 11389

Re: Looking for stats: Average/Median age when $1M networth (household) is attained?

There are plenty of net worth percentile calculators out there but I'm struggling to find this specific permutation of these statistics. I'm curious to know what the median age (of household) is when a $1M net worth (household nw) is attained. I don't know if those outliers that are practically born into this category skew things but I'm hoping there's not enough to meaningfully move the needle. I can find household net worth by age percentile calculators but I'm mostly curious about at which age the $1M line is typically crossed (as opposed to an average NW overly influenced by UHNW or how many households at a specific age have >$1M). Hopefully I've explained that nuance clearly. I've exhausted my Google skills on this one. Links to sourc...
by BW1985
Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: YOLO vs BH
Replies: 97
Views: 11365

Re: YOLO vs BH

That's why I'm planning to FIRE before 40. I also want to relocate and spend time with our parents while they're still around.

:sharebeer
by BW1985
Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139780

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Anybody else thinking man if I had bought TSLA I could be sitting on a beach by now :shock:

I've never purchased a single stock though, never was much of a gambler.
by BW1985
Wed Dec 09, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 224
Views: 21492

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

I'm liking the VG suggested approach of % of portfolio each year with maximum and minimum (5% and 2.5% is what they suggested).

If you can go barebones and/or pickup temp work to get by on 2.5%, is there any other downside to this approach instead of the 4% rule?

I think I'd feel much more comfortable spending a % of my portfolio rather than the fixed 4% of year 1 + inflation. :beer
by BW1985
Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 37257

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

000 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:04 pm
BW1985 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:58 pm
000 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:26 pm
cashboy wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:10 pm what do bubbles smell like?
chicken?
Like a stampede of bulls running towards a cliff on a hot summer day.
Are you out of equities then? Just wondering how convinced you are of the upcoming bubble burst.
I have been staying the course with an asset allocation designed to weather such bubbles.
What's that look like, are you willing to share?
by BW1985
Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 37257

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

000 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:26 pm
cashboy wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:10 pm what do bubbles smell like?
chicken?
Like a stampede of bulls running towards a cliff on a hot summer day.
Are you out of equities then? Just wondering how convinced you are of the upcoming bubble burst.
by BW1985
Wed Aug 26, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 26677

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

I'm you in a few years, 34 @ 1.3M. We could do 3% WR and cover current expenses, I just worry about future expenses- primarily medical like everyone else. I hear you though (see my sig).

My wife's job is harder than mine and she makes half of what I make so the plan is let her quit first, especially if we end up having a child.
by BW1985
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139780

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Been awhile since I've been here, anybody still sitting on the sidelines or did those folks all stop posting by now?
by BW1985
Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139780

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

You could have used that same exact argument for the Japanese stock market pre-1990. I could, but I won't because this thread isn't about the Japanese stock market. :beer If I say historically my house has never caught on fire, and someone else points out that other houses have, that information would still be relevant to my house's fire risk--that is unless I can show how my house is intrinsically different than the other houses...perhaps my house isn't made of wood, it's made of concrete...that's an intrinsic difference. Is there such an intrinsic difference in the U.S. stock market than in other markets? What is that difference, exactly? Have we ever had a valuation like the Nikkei did at the top? If we do get to those valuations then y...
by BW1985
Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Speculating - Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Replies: 55
Views: 5476

Re: Speculating - Chesapeake Energy (CHK)

I read on Bloomberg that small investors are speculating in bankruptcy candidate stocks such as cruise liner stocks. When your stock price is below USD, I believe you are at threat of delisting from NYSE? So a stock consolidation is surely coming. I think this is all not going to end well. The very high volatility attracts the gambling instinct & the gambler. There are times when gains of 2x and 3x, on paper, appear in prospect. But the reality is these companies are nearly bankrupt, i.e. the assets of the company are worth less than the liabilities. Shareholders will be heavily diluted, if not wiped out. I remember doing this with a brickmaker (warrants on the stock) in the early 1990s when the UK was in a building recession. Spoiler ...
by BW1985
Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Zelle for money transfer
Replies: 44
Views: 6288

Re: Zelle for money transfer

There are horror stories out there. Personally I don't use it for any significant amount of money.
by BW1985
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139780

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stef wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:15 pm I really wish I could ignore everything what's happening out there. Buying after such a huge recovery just feels wrong.

It's like a car that you wanted to buy for 22k. Now the price has gone up to 32k just because everyone wants to buy the same car. You still want the car, but it feels like the seller is robbing you :D
That's why automating your investing is key. It's why the 401k works so well, there's no thought or action needed, paycheck hits & shares purchased. No action required.
by BW1985
Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139780

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stef wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:09 am Did you guys look at SCV? Even close to UPRO lol.
What are you looking at? VBR is up 4.75%.
by BW1985
Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139780

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

atdharris wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:12 am Sometimes I feel silly holding ~$50k in cash in savings making 1.15% when it appears like the market is the only place to put my money.
That's the age old feeling- when the market is exploding you feel like you're too fixed income rich and when it's free falling you feel like you don't have enough.
by BW1985
Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139780

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Travel stocks have exploded the last couple days, anyone who purchased those is looking good right now. (Not me)
by BW1985
Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking of selling some SP 500 to buy more Wells Fargo
Replies: 75
Views: 7253

Re: Thinking of selling some SP 500 to buy more Wells Fargo

Dear all, recently bought about $40k Wells forgo at $25.5 each. Since this stock have been beaten up so much and I am out of funds, I am thinking to sell $50k-$80k vanguard SP 500 on my tax to buy Wells Fargo. Compare to 2009, the bank stocks rised 3 times in 2-3 months just from March low, also Wells Fargo is too big to fail bank. Before I make the decision, I would like to have some inputs to avoid bad decisions. I am still down 15% this year since I moved the funds and sold off the total international and didn’t get back in right away. I get it and it is tempting, especially if they manage to keep their dividend. Boglehead philosophy aside for a moment, this individual stock is risky even for individual stocks. Assuming their history of...
by BW1985
Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139780

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Blue456 wrote: Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:01 pm
lostdog wrote: Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:07 pm What's the deal with international soaring this week?
More interestingly Total World Stock (VT) is beating VTI today. I am tempted to start a threat International Stocks are starting to soar!
Moderator said not to do it because it will inevitably spark the age old debate of international vs. US only.
by BW1985
Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139780

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

If I was in cash right now I would be freaking out. Much more so than when I was in and it was at 2200 because I had confidence that it would eventually come back up. I don't have any confidence that there will be another drop that will be enough for timers to get back in. This is an excellent way to look at it. The people in cash I know are befuddled by the market rise. Some are still in denial. Some have moved to anger. I'm in a couple facebook groups related to FIRE. It's like groundhog day because every day there is a post asking why the market is up and if/when the market will drop again. The responses are a mixture of "who knows" and "it will definitely drop just wait!". One guy posted when he went to cash at 2500...
by BW1985
Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139780

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

lostdog wrote: Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:17 am I just can't imagine sitting in the sidelines watching the soaring.
If I was in cash right now I would be freaking out. Much more so than when I was in and it was at 2200 because I had confidence that it would eventually come back up. I don't have any confidence that there will be another drop that will be enough for timers to get back in.
by BW1985
Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What phone to buy after iPhone 7 Plus
Replies: 38
Views: 4075

Re: What phone to buy after iPhone 7 Plus

Why not just get the new SE? No notch and it's a lower price point/good value.
by BW1985
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4685166

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

This house of cards known as the US stock market will eventually come crashing down. The Fed has been doing everything in its power to hold things together but it can’t do it forever. I need to be careful how I word this part of the post so it doesn’t get deleted. The pandemic has caused millions of job losses and small/medium businesses that have been devastated. Just as we were coming out of the pandemic with phased re-openings across the county, something else happened this weekend (I’m not allowed to mention it) that will further complicate things. Some businesses that were barely hanging on have now been permanently destroyed. I can’t imagine anyone traveling, shopping, dining out, or going anywhere anytime soon, assuming they were pl...
by BW1985
Wed May 27, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 31937

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

nigel_ht wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 12:51 pm
BW1985 wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 10:31 am
retiredjg wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 7:29 am
oscar1 wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 7:54 pm Everyone says stock markets are forward looking, I understand. But with 40 million unemployment claims over 2 months, why would the markets shrug that off. No economy in history has replaced 40m jobs even in a year’s time. What am I missing?!
You are looking for logic. It's human nature. You want to or expect to understand why the market does what it does.

Unfortunately for us humans, the market is often completely illogical. Even when it seems logical, one has to wonder.
This is what I was going to post. You don't have to understand it.
Seems like gambling when you put money into a game you don’t understand.
I disagree. Gambling to me is trying to time when to get out and when to get back in.
by BW1985
Wed May 27, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 31937

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

retiredjg wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 7:29 am
oscar1 wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 7:54 pm Everyone says stock markets are forward looking, I understand. But with 40 million unemployment claims over 2 months, why would the markets shrug that off. No economy in history has replaced 40m jobs even in a year’s time. What am I missing?!
You are looking for logic. It's human nature. You want to or expect to understand why the market does what it does.

Unfortunately for us humans, the market is often completely illogical. Even when it seems logical, one has to wonder.
This is what I was going to post. You don't have to understand it.
by BW1985
Tue May 26, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Painting the house//estimates and experiences
Replies: 20
Views: 2224

Re: Painting the house//estimates and experiences

lthenderson wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 3:57 pm
BW1985 wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 11:07 am Have you painted trim work? Over time the wood has bled through my white paint in spots and I'm not sure how to fix it now.
Yes. What is probably going on is that you have softwood trim and some resin within the lumber is bleeding through. In that situation, you need to prime with a good quality stainblocking primer first and then go over that with the color of your choice. Most trim paints won't stop sap by themselves no matter how many coats you put on.
Thanks it's actually a piece of trim I made from plywood. I didn't prime it I just used the same acrylic paint+primer that I used on our walls. Now that I already have several coats of that paint on there what do I do? Do I go on top of that paint with a stainblocking primer?
by BW1985
Tue May 26, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139780

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I am an accumulator. The last thing I'd want is a market that is 30-50% or more below its all time highs. That likely comes packaged with high uncertainty, potential hiring freezes, layoffs, and all sorts of other bad things for an accumulator. You can't accumulate if you have nothing to add to your pile. How about the S&P 500 hovers around 3,000-3,400, flirting with all-time highs for a couple years, a vaccine becomes available and then the market takes off on a 12% per year annual return for the next ten years or so? The thing is we can't control any of that so I'm not sure why people talk about it so much. Instead of hoping and wishing for whatever price people want the S&P to be I suggest just focusing on earning more and spend...