Search found 48 matches

by rkayakr
Mon Aug 05, 2013 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda CRV or Subaru Outback?
Replies: 83
Views: 42569

Re: Honda CRV or Subaru Outback?

I faced the same decision 18 months ago. I have a 75 pound Golden Retriever, am an amateur astronomer (lotsa gear) and an avid kayaker. I considered the Outback, the CRV, the Rav4 and the Prius V. Although I owned a Prius and enjoyed it, I went with the Outback 2.5i. I'm happy except for the lame roof rack (a real shame on a Subaru) and occasional nostalgia for the fuel economy of the Prius.
by rkayakr
Wed Jun 05, 2013 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: France - Paris / Nice - Must do List
Replies: 92
Views: 17047

Re: France - Paris / Nice - Must do List

While in Nice:
The flower market
Fondation Maeght contemporary Art museum in nearby Saint-Paul de Vence
I had the best meal of my life at Au Rendez-vous des Amis in the hills overlooking Nice
The beaches in Nice are rocky, take a short commuter train ride to Eze-sur-Mer for nice beaches at the foot of impressive cliffs
by rkayakr
Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: uses for old laptop?
Replies: 28
Views: 5742

Re: uses for old laptop?

I did load Linux on an old machine. I use it only for financial transactions: banking, Vanguard, TIAA, ...
I never web browse or email with that machine.
by rkayakr
Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I ignore the TIAA-CREF options in my 401k?
Replies: 12
Views: 1625

Re: Can I ignore the TIAA-CREF options in my 401k?

My old 403c is with TIAA. My current 401k has limited choices and opaque management. I have my IRA with Vanguard. I kept TIAA Traditional and rolled the rest of the 403c and the 401k to the Vanguard IRA. I did hold the TIAA Real Estate, which I think is an unique investment.
by rkayakr
Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How are hybrid cars in the snow?
Replies: 14
Views: 7823

Re: How are hybrid cars in the snow?

I have a 2007 Prius here in Northeast Ohio. I replaced the OE tires with Goodyear Assurance TripleTred all season tires and have never had a problem. Check out the Tire Rack all season tire survey results: http://www.tirerack.com/tires/surveyres ... sp?type=AS
there are categories for light snow, deep snow and ice traction.
by rkayakr
Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite song line?
Replies: 153
Views: 15701

Many of the above plus:

I was with my girl
I put my hand on her knee
She said - if you can't play the jug
you can't play with me

Jug Band Music
by rkayakr
Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Fund or Stable Value Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 5784

I hold Vanguard Total Bond and TIPS funds (~50/50) in my IRA and a stable value fund through my 401K. Given the present yields, all of my new money is going into the stable value fund.
by rkayakr
Mon Aug 29, 2011 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 53% of Stock Trading is High Frequency Trading
Replies: 64
Views: 7511

I guess I have a primitive notion of Capitalism. I think that the value of Capitalism lies in the ability of markets to make useful investments. Any friction in the system that diverts capital from investment is bad for the economy and the society, whether the friction is from high speed trading, no value middle men, monopoly extortion or old fashion corruption. I see any resources diverted by parties from investment to their pocket as a determent not only to other investors but also to every person interested in the health of our economy.
by rkayakr
Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [del]
Replies: 56
Views: 9332

I also have had a run in with PayPal. It started with a message form Gmail that my Gmail account had been accessed from China and suggesting that I change my password. I check the accesses and there appeared to be a genuine problem. I logged out and logged into Gmail from a different machine and browser to change my Gmail password. End of story I thought. Then I got a nastygram from iTunes. Apparently the pirates leveraged my Gmail PW into my iTunes PW (admittedly it was not all that hard to do). From iTunes they tried to access PayPal which locked my PP account. I sorted out the iTunes PW and then tried to sort out PayPal. PayPal turned out to be a nightmare. Neither your nor my patience permits retelling all of the gory details here. Thro...
by rkayakr
Tue Aug 02, 2011 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ipod Touch or something else?
Replies: 16
Views: 2629

I have an iPod Touch 4th gen and carry a dumb cell phone. I agree with the other posters that iTunes is a bad pieces of software. It even makes Micro$oft aps look good. In addition to the clumsiness in transferring music, podcasts, pix and videos, the iTunes store search is extremely poor. I usually use Google to find things I'm interested in and then go to them by name in iTunes. iTunes is also aggressively destructive - hit the wrong button while trying to control its actions and it wipes out your device. In general I find that Apple products are OK as long as you use them EXACTLY the way Steve Jobs intended - if not, you are in for a bruising. Apple also uses iTunes to enforce an obsolesce policy. After years of constant use my wife's iP...
by rkayakr
Mon Jun 13, 2011 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are YOU Currently Reading? Part IV. (07/04/2010)
Replies: 1507
Views: 403069

The Disappearing Spoon: And Other True Tales of Madness, Love, and the History of the World from the Periodic Table of the Elements - Sam Kean

Nice Summer Science read
by rkayakr
Tue Jun 07, 2011 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken Substitute?
Replies: 8
Views: 1730

Vanguard's Cashedge has been closed to new users for some time. Vanguard's lack of aggregation is so severe that I can not get an aggregated view of my Vanguard IRA with my wife's Vanguard IRA, let alone any outside accounts.

IMHO this is a real weak spot for Vanguard.
by rkayakr
Sat May 28, 2011 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone do T'ai Chi?
Replies: 10
Views: 1801

I have done Tai Chi since 1974. I have had experience with four teaching styles. I do it every day to remain limber and calm my mind. I credit Tai Chi with developing my sense of balance and center of gravity control that helps me tremendously with other sports like skiing and kayaking. I first learned from an elderly Chinese sifu. There was no formal class, sign up, etc. You stood behind him every morning with the others and tried to and copy him. If you stuck it out long enough he would occasionally come by and say - "No not like that - like this". He practiced traditional Yang long form. He was amazing, his teaching, not so much. In about 1982 I met a Chinese graduate student, a big deal back then. I bartered tutoring him in Ph...
by rkayakr
Tue Apr 26, 2011 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Commodities
Replies: 21
Views: 3805

PIMCO in Vanguard IRA

I think that a $75 fee for purchase in a Vanguard IRA is way to high. I purchased shares in the PIMCO fund last year through Vanguard's FundAccess for my IRA and the charge was $20.

From the Vanguard Brokerage Services® commission and fee schedules page:

Transaction-fee (TF) funds
Standard: $35; Voyager® and Voyager Select®: $20; Flagship®, $8.

BTW - it has done VERY well, I have had to rebalance out to keep to my allocation plan

your mileage may vary
by rkayakr
Mon Apr 11, 2011 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hobbies of Bogleheads
Replies: 159
Views: 26558

Outdoor sports:
kayaking, hiking, X-C skiing - all inexpensive nature oriented hobbies

Indoor:
Amateur radio - low cost, I enjoy making my own gear

Indoor/outdoor:
Astronomy - enjoying nature + moderate gear (again making stuff)
by rkayakr
Mon Mar 21, 2011 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Improved fuel economy with tires
Replies: 32
Views: 6132

WOW What an education in how topics develop on the internet. Please look back to my last post about the sensitivity of SUV rollover to tire pressure. The advice for autocross or any other kind of racing is IMHO the last thing the driver of a Suburban with the extra weight of kayaks on top should follow. The cold set pressure has nothing to do with marketing. Are you going to buy a vehicle based on the cold set pressure? They are set by the OEM engineers to balance safety, handling, ride and fuel economy. BTW - in my experience OEMs are unconcerned about tire wear. RE recommendations - it's only a recommendation that you put oil in the engine. I am not aware of any that law requires it in the US. Not following those recommendations for your ...
by rkayakr
Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Improved fuel economy with tires
Replies: 32
Views: 6132

Just to recap the tire discussion: You can change the amount of deflection of a pneumatic tire by changing its pressure Higher pressure -> less deflection -> lower rolling resistance, smaller footprint (crowned in the center), stiffer response Let's look at traction: The reason you put up with pneumatic tires is that they deflect, which cushions shocks from road irregularities and even more important, allows the tire footprint to envelop the inevitable small irregularities and keep the rubber on the road and in good contact. This enveloping is why off road drivers often decrease pressure for better traction in low speed rough surface conditions (I am NOT recommending this). So when you increase pressure above the Original Equipment Manufact...
by rkayakr
Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: my commodity exposure is getting killed
Replies: 73
Views: 10119

bob90245 wrote:

"However, the recent data with real money shows that investors have encountered contango."

PCRIX
1 month + 2.4%
3 month + 8.6%
1 yr +29.8%

If "contango" means a 30% return over the recent year with my real money, as PCRIX has delivered, I'll take it. I just don't see poor recent performance.

Wagnerjb

I think that band rebalancing, rather than fixed time rebalancing, is useful for volatile instruments like CCFs.
by rkayakr
Fri Mar 18, 2011 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: my commodity exposure is getting killed
Replies: 73
Views: 10119

bob90245

Well I certainly have not won the game.

"It's only a struggle if you believe you have the ability to outperform by timing the markets. Give up the hope of outperformance by simply accepting what the markets offer you."

EXACTLY! I try to stick to my allocation plan whether I think in the future interest rates might rise, equity evaluations might fall or CCFs have contango. I don't see how acting on some analysis predictions is "prudent" and others "speculative" as you indicated in your post.
by rkayakr
Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: my commodity exposure is getting killed
Replies: 73
Views: 10119

bob90245

Hmmm - your comments seem to be in variance with your tag line. Do you change your asset allocations based on current interest rates or current equity valuations? How often to you change your allocation plan versus rebalancing to that plan?

These are genuine questions about issues that I struggle with.
by rkayakr
Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: my commodity exposure is getting killed
Replies: 73
Views: 10119

Scott S "I can't remember who said it first, but being diversified means you're always unhappy with something in your portfolio. - Scott" I think that you have it backward. Being diversified means that you are always happy about something in your portfolio. I have had a small allocation of PCRIX for the last year. It has had a total returned of about 30%. I have had to take funds out to maintain my target allocation. Remember that in addition to NAV change, PCRIX has returned an average annualized dividend of 10.3% over the last 5 quarters. On the 17th they issued a $0.2478 divided per share (about 9.9% annualized), so share price dropped accordingly. RE comments an the past not being a good predictor for the future. Isn't that tr...
by rkayakr
Fri Mar 04, 2011 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What podcasts do you listen too PART II
Replies: 7
Views: 1626

NPR Science Friday
my pesky job keeps me from listening live

The Skeptics Guide to the Universe
thought provoking and entertaining

Wait Wait Don't Tell Me
pure fun
by rkayakr
Wed Mar 02, 2011 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To Hybrid auto owners: is the maintenance different?
Replies: 34
Views: 7876

Another Prius data point. Nothing beyond oil changes required for my 2007 with 55,000 miles. I get the oil changes done at my favorite gas station.

I have a friend with an early Honda Insight that needed a new battery pack at 125,000 miles. Honda partially covered the replacement.
by rkayakr
Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead Beer
Replies: 1071
Views: 204154

I've sampled as many beers as possible here and throughout Europe and a few in Asia. I'm far from an expert but am willing to learn (sample) whenever I can.

In the US my favorite premium is Great Lakes Dortmunder Gold. Other Great Lakes brews are also very good.

Best value - Henninger Premium Lager a German import at Trader Joe's - $6 for a 6 pack of pint cans, also many Trader Joe house brands are good values

Best Communist Beer - Beer Lao (the only beer in Laos)
by rkayakr
Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best mp3 player under $100?
Replies: 38
Views: 5874

One general comment on audio books and players. Our public library has a good selection of audio books that you can check out for free. You can download them to your PC and move them over to your mp3 player. This has become our standard practice before every long car trip.
by rkayakr
Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best mp3 player under $100?
Replies: 38
Views: 5874

I have a Sansa Fuze and my wife has a Sansa Clip. They are both excellent mp3 players. They both have built in FM receivers that many Apple products do not have. They also play nice with Apple, Windows and Linux. I also have an iPod Touch that I use mainly for Pandora (feeding my stereo) and other apps like Astronomy sky maps. There is definitely no audio advantage to Apple products. I also find iTunes clumsy and difficult to use if you want ANYTHING other than the default actions. I am particularly bothered by Apple's approach. My wife's iPod mini was dying. She bought a new iPod nano to replace it. We could not install the nano in her Mac because Apple required the latest version of iTunes. She could not update iTunes because Apple requir...
by rkayakr
Wed Jan 19, 2011 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do? A day in Cleveland
Replies: 34
Views: 4519

-
by rkayakr
Wed Jan 19, 2011 11:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do? A day in Cleveland
Replies: 34
Views: 4519

Great lakes Brewing Company

XtremeSki2001

The Great Lakes Brewing Company is on the near West side near the West Side Market (worth a trip by its self). Great beers. I'm partial to the Dortmunder Gold.

http://www.greatlakesbrewing.com/gettin ... directions
by rkayakr
Mon Dec 20, 2010 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe Them Anyway
Replies: 1
Views: 727

Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe Them Anyway

Bogleheads may be interested in the latest episode of the Skeptics Guide to the Universe (#283) podcast. This center part of this episode has an interesting interview with Dan Gardner, author of "Risk" and "Future Babble - Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe Them Anyway". Much of the interview discussed the results of a massive, long term study by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock tracking the accuracy of predictions by experts. The unsurprising result is that the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. The surprising result is that some experts appeared to do slightly better and that accuracy was INVERSELY proportional to the fame and certainty of the expert. That is: the more famous the pu...
by rkayakr
Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Fund Investors Should Learn from Benoit Mandelbrot
Replies: 8
Views: 2392

How Fractals Can Explain What's Wrong with Wall Street

Link to an old article by Mandelbrot in Scientific American, originally published in 1999. Readable, no equations

http://www.scientificamerican.com/artic ... all-street
by rkayakr
Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fitness - what works for you?
Replies: 231
Views: 44047

Three thoughts

one - like many others I get my exercise by doing things that I enjoy. Hiking, XC skiing, downhill skiing, kayaking, ...

two - Get a dog. I have a 65 lb Golden Retriever. If she isn't walked vigorously every day she goes stir crazy. Every morning before work and every evening she takes me on a good walk, no matter what the weather.

three - I've been doing Tai Chi for 40 years. It does wonders for your flexibility, tone, balance and peace. When I neglect Tai Chi my balance goes to hell and I get clumsy.
by rkayakr
Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Internet Security
Replies: 14
Views: 2901

Lbill Would having a dedicated computer for only financial websites, and having a second hard drive in the same computer dedicated only to financial websites be the same thing? In general no. The point of my second drive is that the first drive hosts a Windows operating system. The second hosts Ubuntu Linux. I can boot into either, but I reserve the Linux for financial transactions. Linux has far fewer security problems and my web exposure on it is limited to a few activities. Windows can't see the Linux disk unless special software is installed (which I have not installed!). I have not heard of any Windows malware that can search for and read a Linux drive, let alone install Linux malware. It's like a dedicated computer without taking up t...
by rkayakr
Mon Aug 23, 2010 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Internet Security
Replies: 14
Views: 2901

CaptMidnight

I agree that there is a serious security risk from the institution. Breaches usually go unreported or under reported because institutions have no upside in publicizing them. A breach discourages patrons and disclosure usually doesn't help catch the culprits.

In my first post I mentioned that Adine reports breaches based on info that users supply. This may be a good way of collecting information, but it is open to error. Adine reports a breach from the Vanguard site but no-one has stepped forward to confirm of deny it.

WRT Javascript - I am wary of all scripting. That's why I run Noscript.
by rkayakr
Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Internet Security
Replies: 14
Views: 2901

atomiclightbulb Thanks for the reply and good advice. I took the extra step of installing a second hard disk on one computer that I run Unbuntu Linux from. I use the Chrome browser on it exclusively for connecting to Vanguard and other financial institutions. In other places I use Firefox with Abine and Noscript. What specifically concerns you about JavaScript? Most of the malware I've found on my computers has been in Java directories. Here's a link on the topic: http://www.devarticles.com/c/a/JavaScript/JavaScript-Security/ "JavaScript has a long and inglorious history of atrocious security holes. Its security problems are not limited to implementation errors. There are numerous ways in which scripts can affect the user’s execution e...
by rkayakr
Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Internet Security
Replies: 14
Views: 2901

Vanguard Internet Security

Two items on Internet security and the Vanguard website. First As I have moved to using more Internet access to financial services I have become increasing aware of security and privacy issues. In particular, use of the Vanguard website requires several dubious practices, including enabling JavaScript and allowing pop-ups. Is anyone else concerned? Anyone tried to get Vanguard to drop questionable practices? Second After reading the WSJ article on privacy WSJ:How to control your privacy online. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703999304575399520322111304.html?mod=WSJ_0_0_WZ_Tmpl_Reno_RIGHTTopCarousel I installed Abine, a privacy add-on for Firefox and Internet Exploder. In addition to controlling tracking sites, ad-networks and...
by rkayakr
Wed Aug 04, 2010 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are YOU Currently Reading? Part IV. (07/04/2010)
Replies: 1507
Views: 403069

The Most Powerful Idea in the World: A Story of Steam, Indus

The Most Powerful Idea in the World: A Story of Steam, Industry, and Invention by William Rosen I found this book fascinating. I found it a well written story of invention, innovation, politics, economics and the evolution of science and of intellectual property. Amazon Product Description "If all measures of human advancement in the last hundred centuries were plotted on a graph, they would show an almost perfectly flat line—until the eighteenth century, when the Industrial Revolution would cause the line to shoot straight up, beginning an almost uninterrupted march of progress.     In The Most Powerful Idea in the World, William Rosen tells the story of the men responsible for the Industrial Revolution and the machine that drove it—t...
by rkayakr
Fri May 28, 2010 12:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would you pay extra to have a 401k check rush-mailed?
Replies: 24
Views: 18536

J P Morgan rollover to VG - lost check

JPM claimed that they could only send the check (made out to VG) directly to me. I didn't pay extra for a rush check. Day after day I waited to see the check appear in my mail box. After several days I called JPM and they insisted I wait 10 days. After the 10 days I canceled the first check and ordered a second rush check. I was out of the market for > 2 weeks and was very worried about the lost check for that time.
by rkayakr
Sun May 23, 2010 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves
Replies: 27
Views: 4136

The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves

As an antidote to the pervading gloom and doom I have just started reading “The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves” by Matt Ridley. It's scope and analysis reminds me of Bernstein's "The Birth of Plenty : How the Prosperity of the Modern World was Created". So far it is a great read with an interesting analysis and examples I can relate to. Further info NYT: Doomsayers Beware, a Bright Future Beckons http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/18/science/18tier.html WSJ: Humans: Why They Triumphed http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703691804575254533386933138.html?mod=WSJ_hp_editorsPicks The Sunday Times: Cheer up: life only gets better http://women.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/women/the_way_we_live/article7127536.ece...
by rkayakr
Fri May 21, 2010 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prius... yeah or nay?
Replies: 48
Views: 178149

'07 Prius

I have an '07 Prius that I am happy with. In addition to the economy, comfort, appointments and passenger space the hatchback is a great feature. I have a 65 lb. Golder Retriever that happily rides back there when it's not full of my gear or my wife's Art projects. Folding the rear seat down lets us haul 6' display stands.

I get the best mileage in city driving, but then I'm the impatient type that drives the speed limit +9 on highways.

Prior to the Prius I have owned a Honda Fit and several Accords. All efficient, well designed and well built cars. The Prius has better economy, more usable space and a higher level interior. The Fit was more fun to drive.
by rkayakr
Sat Apr 24, 2010 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When did you first hear about Lake Wobegon?
Replies: 38
Views: 6198

I first heard Prairie Home Companion after I moved to Iowa City in 1979. When I moved away in 1984 I was surprised to find that it wasn't a local program.

By the way - all of my children ARE above average
by rkayakr
Tue Apr 13, 2010 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Every Black Hole Contains Another Universe?
Replies: 50
Views: 6867

Turtles all the way down

Reminds me of the cosmology of Terry Pratchett's Diskworld. from Wikipedia "Turtles all the way down": "Turtles all the way down," or "The Infinite Turtle Theory," refers to the infinite regression problem in cosmology posed by the Unmoved mover paradox. The phrase was popularized by Stephen Hawking in 1988. The "turtle" metaphor in the anecdote represents a popular notion of a "primitive cosmological myth", viz. the flat earth supported on the back of a World Turtle. ... The most widely known version appears in Stephen Hawking's 1988 book A Brief History of Time, which starts: A well-known scientist (some say it was Bertrand Russell) once gave a public lecture on astronomy. He described how...
by rkayakr
Tue Mar 23, 2010 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with FIRECalc - Asset allocation during retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 3725

Rodc
Thanks for the info.
Rodc wrote: It uses rolling periods over only one history.
This will sound flip, but how many histories of the US market since 1927 can you have? Isn't there just one?
by rkayakr
Tue Mar 23, 2010 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with FIRECalc - Asset allocation during retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 3725

freebeer wrote:If you've been lurking on this forum you probably know that Larry Swedroe has a small-value concentrated portfolio along the same lines as what you've been kicking around. Just in case:
freebeer

No, I have read several of Swederoe's books but had not seen the heavy SCV tilt you reference. I choose Treasuries as the fixed following Swedroe.

Thanks

Maybe its not so crazy.
by rkayakr
Tue Mar 23, 2010 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with FIRECalc - Asset allocation during retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 3725

dbr wrote:This analysis is not complete until the effects of AA are looked at over a range of withdrawal rates
dbr
I tried 4%, 4.5% and 5% withdrawal rates. 4% is dull, everything succeeds. 4.5% and 5% both had SCV as the best allocation.
by rkayakr
Sun Mar 21, 2010 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with FIRECalc - Asset allocation during retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 3725

Rodc The result posted is not the result on ONE scenario, but the cumulative results of 49 rolling 30 year periods from 1929. I thought it interesting because given the same historical data, you can get much different results from different reasonable sounding analysis approaches. I posted in the "Theory" forum because the question is: if MVO and MPT disagree, how do you decide what is useful in the real world? I was surprise at how stable the results were over a range of equities/fixed ratios (other allocations are not). If "Ridge Regression" is useful - do any tools have that built in? As I indicated in my first post, my portfolio is built on MPT. I not about to run out and move everything to SV because of this analysi...
by rkayakr
Sun Mar 21, 2010 4:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest car for Bogleheads
Replies: 112
Views: 15344

I think side-impact airbags are important as well. About 1/10th as important as ESC in terms of reducing fatalities. ESC is the most important safety feature that is not mandated by the federal government. [/i] Wikipedia article on ESC: The United States was next, requiring ESC for all passenger vehicles under 10,000 pounds (4536 kg), phasing in the regulation starting with 55% of 2009 models (effective 1 September 2008), 75% of 2010 models, 95% of 2011 models, and all 2012 models. see NHTSA reg: FMVSS 126 Part 49 CFR Parts 571 & 585 Details Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards; Electronic Stability Control Systems As part of a comprehensive plan for reducing the serious risk of rollover crashes and the risk of death and serious inju...
by rkayakr
Sun Mar 21, 2010 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with FIRECalc - Asset allocation during retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 3725

Rodc

I reported in 3 decimal places because that is how FIRECalc reports its results. It runs 49 scenarios. If two fail you get a 95.9% success report since 47/49 does not express in whole percentage points.

The reason for the post was that MPT, based on historical returns, seems to suggest a diversified allocation. But this analysis, based on historical returns, suggests the opposite - a narrow investment in one sector.

I explored many allocations and none of them beat pure small value.
by rkayakr
Sun Mar 21, 2010 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with FIRECalc - Asset allocation during retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 3725

Playing with FIRECalc - Asset allocation during retirement

While lurking on the Forum I learned about FIRECalc, Otar and TIP$TER. In playing with FIRECalc I ran across an interesting result for portfolio theory followers (like myself). Say you have some assets and a 30 year expected need for withdrawal with the default CPI inflation. I'll focus on the success rate percentage as the measure. Assuming a 4% withdrawal rate and the "couch potato" (75% stock index, 25% bond funds) your historically based success is 94.5% - not too bad. Now stretch a bit to a 5% withdrawal rate. The "couch potato" success falls to 70.6% - you could loose your couch and potato. Switching to the default mixed portfolio (still ~ 75% stocks) is better - a 91.8% success. This seems to support a diversified...