Search found 98 matches

by happytrades
Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I become a Professional Gambler?
Replies: 84
Views: 8422

Re: Should I become a Professional Gambler?

Here was my experience. I was an advantage player at blackjack about 20 years ago. I just played weekends, but it was hard on my family life. After one year I was up about $70,000, which for me was quite respectable. However, I experienced an "aha moment" at the casino one day. I was tryin...
by happytrades
Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone sell puts in order to force re-balancing and collect premiums?
Replies: 34
Views: 1898

Re: Does anyone sell puts in order to force re-balancing and collect premiums?

I do use this strategy. I think it is wise because it reinforces your discipline. If you have an IPS which says that you will rebalance at certain points, why not sell a put and collect a premium for something that you were going to do anyway? IMO this helps you from not making ad hoc decisions whic...
by happytrades
Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3 Bucket Strategy
Replies: 33
Views: 3244

Re: 3 Bucket Strategy

I found the following to be helpful: Longer Lasting Portfolio Report Quote Post by Trev H » Thu Dec 03, 2009 10:04 am Below a simple strategy that I found and saved a few years ago. === A Longer-Lasting Portfolio To make your retirement portfolio last, follow this strategy devised by financial plann...
by happytrades
Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volvo XC90 T8 2016-18
Replies: 16
Views: 1705

Re: Volvo XC90 T8 2016-18

I have a 2016 xc90 t8 plug-in. have put about 40,000 miles on it. It is a very comfortable car to drive with tons of cool features. I have had it in a few times to fix minor electronic/software issues. Because it has a 100,000 mile warranty, there has not been and should not be any expensive repairs...
by happytrades
Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Zeno's Paradox of investing: the buy-and-hold arrow that flies without moving
Replies: 31
Views: 3539

Re: The Zeno's Paradox of investing: the buy-and-hold arrow that flies without moving

Every dog (factor) has its day. When you are picking factors, you are skating to where the puck was, to quote John Rekenthaler. Ask yourself, how much longer are you likely to live. What is the likelihood that you will (1) live long enough to the factor to manifest itself in a meaningful way and (2)...
by happytrades
Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you Casino? What do you play? Have you won?
Replies: 82
Views: 6611

Re: Do you Casino? What do you play? Have you won?

I have been a gambler for 20 years, playing poker, craps and blackjack. Craps is fun because of the camaraderie but because it has a negative expectation can't be won over the long haul. Blackjack, OTOH, can. I play it for reasons that may be surprising, however.I started keeping records a couple ye...
by happytrades
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 142
Views: 16933

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

I have spent 10 years on this site. For a laymen, I am pretty well informed. Read lots of books. The funny thing is I have decided to go with a simple vanguard portfolio allocation to the extent that I can. I can't do it completely because of imbedded capital gains in other investments. Overall, my ...
by happytrades
Sun May 26, 2019 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three assets all with negative correlations?
Replies: 18
Views: 1793

Re: Three assets all with negative correlations?

What about the Permanent Portfolio or Bridgewater's all weather portfolio?
by happytrades
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your single most expensive mistake?
Replies: 293
Views: 28522

Re: What is your single most expensive mistake?

Marrying a woman who was not frugal, like me. Could have made much more money over my career. Still glad I married her. She is fun. Money isn't everything.
by happytrades
Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 15716

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

A recent WSJ article by Mark Hulburt is pertinent:

The Eight Best Predictors of the Long-Term Market

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-8-best ... 1533521521
by happytrades
Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you handle the urge to DO something?
Replies: 128
Views: 11169

Re: How do you handle the urge to DO something?

Tie yourself to the mast like Ulysses did until you are out of earshot of the Sirens.
by happytrades
Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead guilt with buying a car - Volvo vs Toyota Highlander
Replies: 69
Views: 6274

Re: Boglehead guilt with buying a car - Volvo vs Toyota Highlander

I bought the Volvo hybrid one year ago. The range to run only on the battery is short. I don’t think gas savings are sufficient to justify purchase. However, the ride is great. Lane keeping, adaptive cruise control and other Tesla-like features are great as well. You need to decide “who you are” and...
by happytrades
Fri May 11, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Thinking In Bets
Replies: 22
Views: 3138

Re: Larry Swedroe: Thinking In Bets

[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] and it reminded me about Annie Duke. [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] Annie Duke does the same thing. She is constantly gathering information, building in defenses against confirmation bias, and no matter what happens analyzing the results so that she is...
by happytrades
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving returns on total bond market without changing the risk profile
Replies: 8
Views: 1642

Improving returns on total bond market without changing the risk profile

In this month's Financial Planning Journal, finance professor Craig Israelsen writes an article Can Three Bonds Funds Outperform 1 examining 18 years of return with Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund (VBMFX). He posits that VBMFX consists of 40% Government Bonds, 25% GNMA and 35% Corporate. He says if ...
by happytrades
Sat Apr 22, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 445
Views: 70196

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

I am going to miss Larry. I have read all his books, was a customer of his company BAM for a time. He helped me think and analyze. Too bad a few ruin it for the rest of us. Temperamentally they are not different from the college kids who try to shout out opposing views. Civil discourse is becoming a...
by happytrades
Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What makes an individual an Expert?
Replies: 62
Views: 5173

Re: What makes an individual an Expert?

For my money, an expert is someone who knows more than I do but who is in a spot on the spectrum where I would like to be.
by happytrades
Sat Nov 19, 2016 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle says Fidelity will be sold in 5 years...
Replies: 37
Views: 10172

Re: Jack Bogle says Fidelity will be sold in 5 years...

I used to worry about this but not anymore. I have a lot of my assets in DFA and was worried about Booth selling out and the ER increasing to pay for it. But the expense ratios are actually declining because of the competitive nature of the mutual fund industry. If Fidelity sold and the new owners t...
by happytrades
Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to end a business relationship with a good friend?
Replies: 49
Views: 5391

Re: How to end a business relationship with a good friend?

Speak the truth with love. Ephesians 4:15
by happytrades
Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman knocks TSM
Replies: 34
Views: 5776

Re: Merriman knocks TSM

Only three of the Lazy Portfolios have 40% allocation to fixed income (Merriman, Bernstein's Smart Money and Coffeehouse) and none have as much allocated to international (50%) as he does.

So I am not sure this is an apples to apples comparison.
by happytrades
Wed May 04, 2016 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does T.R. Price add value for its investors
Replies: 43
Views: 11108

Re: Does T.R. Price add value for its investors

Larry

Are there enough data points here to assume that TRP'S results are more than just luck?
by happytrades
Fri Apr 22, 2016 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If past performance doesn't indicate future performance, why buy stocks?
Replies: 43
Views: 5498

Re: If past performance doesn't indicate future performance, why buy stocks?

Taylor I obviously didn't make my point well. I don't think I am disagreeing with you. What I was trying to say is that among the three asset classes of stocks, bonds and cash, stocks have performed better historically over a long period of time than bonds or cash. So given those three choices, IMO ...
by happytrades
Fri Apr 22, 2016 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If past performance doesn't indicate future performance, why buy stocks?
Replies: 43
Views: 5498

Re: If past performance doesn't indicate future performance, why buy stocks?

Here's the deal. You have limited realistic choices on what to do with your money. Over the long term stocks have outperformed bonds, and bonds have outperformed cash. Invert the question. What is the logic for putting your money in the worst performing asset class? The race is not always to the swi...
by happytrades
Mon Oct 12, 2015 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does this simplified portfolio make sense?
Replies: 14
Views: 1311

Re: Does this simplified portfolio make sense?

There is not a right or a wrong answer to your question. The answer to your question starts with you, not with a consensus of experts. You have to decide about your own risk tolerance and then develop a strategy that aligns with your personality and values. The consensus of experts will change. ......
by happytrades
Mon Oct 12, 2015 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does this simplified portfolio make sense?
Replies: 14
Views: 1311

Re: Does this simplified portfolio make sense?

There is not a right or a wrong answer to your question. The answer to your question starts with you, not with a consensus of experts. You have to decide about your own risk tolerance and then develop a strategy that aligns with your personality and values. The consensus of experts will change. The ...
by happytrades
Mon Oct 12, 2015 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does this simplified portfolio make sense?
Replies: 14
Views: 1311

Re: Does this simplified portfolio make sense?

There is not a right or a wrong answer to your question. The answer to your question starts with you, not with a consensus of experts. You have to decide about your own risk tolerance and then develop a strategy that aligns with your personality and values. The consensus of experts will change. The ...
by happytrades
Sun Jul 05, 2015 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing
Replies: 87
Views: 18189

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing

Let's start by defining our terms. Market timing to some means guessing where and when the market is going up or down. I agree with the preponderance of opinion that it is impossible. But, to me at least, that is different from market timing with moving averages which is what Merriman is talking abo...
by happytrades
Sat Apr 11, 2015 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Multiple Asset Allocations?
Replies: 17
Views: 2328

Re: Multiple Asset Allocations?

try a Lifestyle Portfolio and a Legacy Portfolio. Lifestyle will be bond heavy and relatively safe from a market meltdown. The asset allocation might be 30/70 stock/bonds. The equity portion handles inflation. The Legacy Portfolio is for your heirs or philanthropy, but not for you. Because it is not...
by happytrades
Wed Mar 04, 2015 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 235
Views: 48736

Re: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrate

I think they are doing the right thing but have been constrained from moving to a world market cap portfolio because of marketing reasons. If VG followed more closely MPT and the EMH which it supports in other contexts, there would be a revolt on the part of many customers and they would lose market...
by happytrades
Thu Feb 26, 2015 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone still owns RadioShack?
Replies: 5
Views: 1347

Re: Anyone still owns RadioShack?

I just bought some bonds today for 14 cents on the dollar. It is a probability play. These bonds sometimes do well in bankruptcy. I tripled my money on MBAC bonds for example. Don't make the bet unless you are willing to lose it all.
by happytrades
Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 14753

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

I tilt but in a simple way. I have a US DFA core fund and an international DFA core fund. I let people smarter than me balance the factors.
by happytrades
Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 169
Views: 39887

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt Postby EmergDoc » Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:38 pm Irritating that there is no transcript. "I think it's a very fine fund but not a perfect fund." It is broadly diversified, has low expenses, has low turnover, and exposes you efficiently to a ...
by happytrades
Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please
Replies: 235
Views: 36973

Re: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please

I was in a situation similar to yours a few years ago. I hired a highly regarded financial advisor with a large team to put together a plan that dealt with investments, insurance, estate plan etc. They put me in DFA funds primarily. They knew going into it that I might not stay with them. So they ch...
by happytrades
Mon Apr 28, 2014 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most reliable way to double a portfolio in 12 years
Replies: 55
Views: 17387

Re: Most reliable way to double a portfolio in 12 years

How about a SPIA?

Depending on your age, you could buy a Single Premium Immediate Annuity, and be guaranteed to double your money in 12 years -- assuming you don't die in the interim.
by happytrades
Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Income at which it's foolish not to pay for tax advice?
Replies: 37
Views: 4218

Re: Income at which it's foolish not to pay for tax advice?

Is this a trick question? If the price of the tax preparation is less than what you will save by having a professional prepare it, pay for tax preparation. Second consideration. If you have a highly respected CPA firm, not given to tax gimmicks or overly aggressive positions, you might avoid an audi...
by happytrades
Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken Improvements I'd like to see
Replies: 4
Views: 627

Re: Quicken Improvements I'd like to see

Ditto on Asset Classes. It seems you should be able to make your own classifications.

Also, if you have MLPs, it treats distributions as sales, thereby screwing up your number of shares.
by happytrades
Fri Dec 13, 2013 7:38 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: A Modest Proposal [adding off-topic board]
Replies: 76
Views: 7691

Re: A Modest Proposal [adding off-topic board]

IMO it is working well as it is. I would change something that has worked quite well only very slowly. It would be too easy for this forum to be overwhelmed with "squirrels." I would error on the side of moderating too tightly and thereby preserve the quality of discussion that draws peopl...
by happytrades
Mon Nov 18, 2013 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historic Small Cap Returns May be Inflated
Replies: 15
Views: 2066

Re: Historic Small Cap Returns May be Inflated

Zweig saying that an at AAII conference is interesting. Back when I was a member, I recall that the approach was generally to select individual smallcap (+usually value) names, based largely on the same research that gets bandied around here. In short, a nice bit of contrarianism on his part in tha...
by happytrades
Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historic Small Cap Returns May be Inflated
Replies: 15
Views: 2066

Historic Small Cap Returns May be Inflated

Jason Zweig with WSJ made an observation at the AAII convention yesterday that I had never considered. In the Q and A, he was asked about the historic small cap premium. He made a cautionary note on the posted returns. Historical indices do not reflex the actual bid/ask spread that real investors wo...
by happytrades
Sun Nov 17, 2013 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two takeaways from Robert Shiller and Jason Zweig at AAII
Replies: 2
Views: 885

Re: Two takeaways from Robert Shiller and Jason Zweig at AAI

Their presentations are recorded on the AAII website, but you probably have to be a member to download them.
by happytrades
Sat Nov 16, 2013 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two takeaways from Robert Shiller and Jason Zweig at AAII
Replies: 2
Views: 885

Two takeaways from Robert Shiller and Jason Zweig at AAII

Professor Shiller was the luncheon speaker. He said his best guess for equity returns over next 10 years was 2.5% real. He was asked about his differences with Gene Fama. He avoided the question except to say that their diverging points of view remain to be resolved, and that there is “something in ...
by happytrades
Fri Nov 15, 2013 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reports from the AAII convention…
Replies: 1
Views: 486

Reports from the AAII convention…

My first time here. 1000 people not too dissimilar from myself. Definitely an older cohort. People who have worked hard all their lives. Lived below their means, saved a lot. Frugal. Most dramatic presentation so far was by Mark Hurlburt. He said that less than 5% of the news letters that he follows...
by happytrades
Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are there so few attorneys on this site?
Replies: 48
Views: 3370

Re: Why are there so few attorneys on this site?

I am a recovery attorney. (Haven't practiced for about 15 years. It can be a highly stressful job.) I had a business/litigation practice when I quit and moved into operating a business. I enjoy math and so the principles advanced by Bogleheads are congruent with my thinking. Engineers and doctors IM...
by happytrades
Fri Aug 09, 2013 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What investors should know about call options strategies
Replies: 11
Views: 1160

So are both sides of the trade losers?

Your thesis seems counter-intuitive to me. You state that buying calls is a money losing proposition, a generally accepted principle because among other things calls tend to be over priced. But if they are expensive that would suggest that the other side of the transaction (writing options) should b...
by happytrades
Mon Mar 18, 2013 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Covered Calls (yes, again, but *twist)
Replies: 8
Views: 885

Re: Covered Calls (yes, again, but *twist)

Investigate a collar. You buy a put to protect your downside and sell an out of the money call to cover the cost of the put. You have downside protection and still some upside potential.
by happytrades
Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman's advice for adding bonds over time
Replies: 65
Views: 8149

Re: Merriman's advice for adding bonds over tine

Actually, I think that it is not bad. I have a 401k plan set up for my employees. My experience is that on balance they don't know what is going on. None of them are regular readers of this website. Therefore,because they think about things other than the vagaries of the stock market, they are unlik...
by happytrades
Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: One of the toughest decisions of my life [Employment]
Replies: 33
Views: 5613

Re: One of the toughest decisions of my life

Two thoughts. First it needs to be made after a thorough discussion with your life partner. Life is much richer if experienced with another person. Even if you succeed, it is a struggle otherwise. Second, your greatest regrets in life are the things that you didn't do because fear held you back. Fai...
by happytrades
Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What does it feel like to have $1M+ liquid?
Replies: 126
Views: 16035

Re: What does it feel like to have $1M+ liquid?

For one thing it depends on what stage in life you are in. At 30 that would be impressive. At 60 less so. I have been a member of the club for several years now, but the same characteristics that contributed to my accumulation of money also constrain my display of it. I live simply. Probably on one-...
by happytrades
Mon Sep 24, 2012 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking of changing my AA
Replies: 23
Views: 2195

Re: Thinking of changing my AA

This is how I would evaluate your options. First, run a Monte Carlo simulation. Assuming a worst case scenario of the worst 5% of the outcomes, could you live with that result? If you are going to take a risk, you must make an estimate of how much you could lose. Don't waste time planning for the on...
by happytrades
Wed Sep 19, 2012 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are the rungs on the career ladder?
Replies: 36
Views: 5033

Re: What are the rungs on the career ladder?

I don't know but the way I look at it is this. You have to think about what segment you are aiming for. Also, you need to make an honest appraisal of how you compare to the other competitors "in the hunt." At the end of the day, one must ask oneself what is it that distinguishes oneself fr...
by happytrades
Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime
Replies: 66
Views: 9186

But don't you feel a little guilty?

It is a raw deal in this respect though. One of the reasons that Amazon has been so successful is that it competes unfairly with your local merchant because Amazon pays no sales taxes. In short, that has been its business model. Your local merchant who hires local citizens also pays a sales tax, whi...