Search found 3026 matches

by CaliJim
Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drill & driver combo kit comparison
Replies: 46
Views: 4641

Re: Drill & driver combo kit comparison

The guy who built my house uses his makita tools the most
by CaliJim
Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stock Options
Replies: 21
Views: 2373

Re: Stock Options

10k in txn fees is outrageous. 4k is high too.
by CaliJim
Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lock Strategy for New House
Replies: 40
Views: 4310

Re: Lock Strategy for New House

folks may be interested in how firefighters use irons to breach doors

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrLeDZI-EfY
by CaliJim
Sun Mar 24, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What frugal thing did you do today?
Replies: 4524
Views: 617408

Re: What frugal thing did you do today?

I used a coupon to save 20% off an item at BB&Beyond.
by CaliJim
Sun Mar 24, 2019 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: yard service questions
Replies: 12
Views: 1532

Re: yard service questions

It's time for me to hire a yard service. I've never done this. What questions do I need to ask? Lot size 7,635 sqft house about 2000sq feet, 15x30 pool, plus apron. Yard area is all gravel, plus the area between sidewalk and street. two trees, one bush, a couple of cacti, and weeds. I had a man come as needed. He was just here, he said he won't be coming any more. He had a stroke recently and just hasn't done his standard good work. I am low income, hope I don't have to have anyone come for a month or two, but he did leave more weeds than I thought he did. I know there will be sticker shock... :( Generally, the needs are to spread pre-emergent 2-3 x year, water it in if needed, remove weeds that get through it, blow driveway/carport/porche...
by CaliJim
Sun Mar 24, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lock Strategy for New House
Replies: 40
Views: 4310

Re: Lock Strategy for New House

have your local locksmith or PD come out and give you an evaluation.

watch some youtube lock pick videos (IE: Santrap's links) regarding locks you can buy at the local hardware store, typically they are no good at all. i would not recommend ie: masterlock, schlage. your locksmith will have much better products.

keep your most valuable valuables encrypted in the banks safedeposit box.

backup *EVERYTHING* on your computer and put the backup in the SD Box.
by CaliJim
Sun Mar 24, 2019 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Please suggest: A forum to discuss relationship problems
Replies: 14
Views: 2673

Re: Please suggest: A forum to discuss relationship problems

you local hospital or county public health department likely has a good social worker outreach group
by CaliJim
Sun Mar 24, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Three Days in DC
Replies: 83
Views: 5562

Re: Three Days in DC

I always liked the Bureau of Engraving and Printing tour. Kids get to see where moonaaay is printed and coins are stamped. EZ to walk to from the Mall. IFRC: Close to the holocaust mueseum.
by CaliJim
Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stock Options
Replies: 21
Views: 2373

Re: Stock Options

my humble advice..... minimize regret....sell at least 50% right away then dollar cost average out over the next 12 months.
diversify out of non-systemic risk asap.
concentrated risk can be a quick wealth builder
concentrated risk can be a quick wealth destroyer as well.
figure out how to live on less! $4m is more than many people will ever earn in a lifetime. congratulations on your great good fortune!
by CaliJim
Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tell The Truth to Boss Why I'm Leaving? (More Money)
Replies: 78
Views: 10075

Re: Tell The Truth to Boss Why I'm Leaving? (More Money)

harrychan wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:30 am I dunno. I kind a want more info before understanding if the grass if really greener. It seems your current company have more benefits and perhaps stability. At my company, large healthcare provider, we bring in contractors who are expendible. Don't underestimate the cost of healthcare, retirement and PTO.
and don't underestimate lost income if 'expndibility happens'.... :(
by CaliJim
Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 883816

LBYM

it is not complicated or risky if you live below your means.ignore the jones it i not a competition to I believe in the weak version of the efficient market hypothesis. I don't believe "magic formulas" can reliably juice returns, Swing tradin may work for some, bu I personnally have no interest in r[/b][/i] market timer's,[ saagaa is a cautionary tail. no inspiring!!! IF i Recall corretlyMT headed off the rails.flamed out and crashedand burned. do not emulatMT there is an easier way avoid self-immolation! as you know leverage is an amplifier of both good and bad result it amplifies gains and to makes them bigger, and it can turn small losses into bankruptcies.I wish you well, by the way don't be icarus and fly too close to the sun...
by CaliJim
Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon third-party item received damaged. No recourse?
Replies: 9
Views: 1554

Re: Amazon third-party item received damaged. No recourse?

I've had mostly good luck w/ the vendors in the amazon market place. apparently the marketplace can be very competitive vendors are beholden to amazon who can quickly down their store fronts if they fall out of line. and that can be devistating to market place vendors who may have significant investments in inventory that they cannot monitize easily if they are shutdown by amazon. so for the most part they are very attuned to eliminating complaints about them to amazon.
by CaliJim
Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: swing trading
Replies: 28
Views: 3714

Re: swing trading

don't swing trade enron, or gm when it was going bankrupt!that would be bad for net worth. diversity is the only free lunch. great results are flukes. not reliably reproducable. read the literature about actively trade stock mutual funds vs index funds over long periods. last year's hot active fund will likely underperform it's index next year. They warn"prior performance is no guaranty of future performance" for good reason. nobody can predict the future, too many causes and conditions and the impact of random events outside of anyone's control is HUGE and chaotic.
by CaliJim
Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: We won the game, went to 50/50, but it just doesn't feel right
Replies: 108
Views: 15093

Re: We won the game, went to 50/50, but it just doesn't feel right

How do you react in deep bear markets? How did you the great recession of 2007-2008. Do you have the stomach for a 25% loss in equity valuations?
We may be in a similar situation as you, and I know I sleep better with a more conservative allocation 45/55 and perhaps too much (for many hardy stomachs) in short term money market e-fund.
by CaliJim
Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Percentage of Your Pre-Retirement Income are You Projecting You Will Need?
Replies: 108
Views: 9324

Re: What Percentage of Your Pre-Retirement Income are You Projecting You Will Need?

the one BIG thing is you no longer need to save for retirement.... though not saving is a bit of psychological hurdle for some, so I've heard. We save the max in each of our 403b accounts so that's $48K we never saw or spent. Develop your retirement budget from that data, making adjustments for things that you wont be consuming in retirement, and add back new things, (health insurance premiums). We won't be paying FICA or Medicare so there goes another $16K from our gross joint salaries. Rumor has it there may be a package offered to longtime staff that would continue health care coverage so fingers crossed medical insurance costs won't go up Some costs do go down in retirement, especially if you use your new copious (lol) free time to wor...
by CaliJim
Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Percentage of Your Pre-Retirement Income are You Projecting You Will Need?
Replies: 108
Views: 9324

Re: What Percentage of Your Pre-Retirement Income are You Projecting You Will Need?

everybody is different. the one BIG thing is you no longer need to save for retirement.... though not saving is a bit of psychological hurdle for some, so I've heard. track your spending carefully develop your retirement budget from that data, making adjustments for things that you wont be consuming in retirement, and add back new things, (health insurance premiums). Some costs do go down in retirement, especially if you use your new copious (lol) free time to work on perfecting your frugality game. In our case, today I just hired the neighbors gardener to clean my gutters. I'm getting to old and unbalance to get on my flat roof and do it myself. so a good related question is "What have you spent less on in retirement than you did pre-...
by CaliJim
Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 172
Views: 31647

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

are any suggestions for the tool being viewed or passed on to the creator over a mmm?

my suggestion would be to model joint outcomes for couples. since women live longer than men on average, and I have an incurable disease that will shorten my life considerably (I have a 'time stamp'.) I suspect we could spend more in the short term whereas my wife's spending will be much less in the future. I guess this could be modeled using the extra expense and extra income parameters......but that doesn't impact the 'grey area' line.
by CaliJim
Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Forum login problems
Replies: 19
Views: 2509

Re: Forum login problems

Hi: I had the same log-in difficulties very early in the am (when I got home from work). This morning Larry restarted the server and that took care of the problem. regards, Hi Barry, I had the login issue as well. I thought perhaps my password was compromised as I just got a blank screen after inputting my id and pwd. So A big Thank You to Larry for restarting the server. What should I / we do if this happens again? Perhaps some sort of answering service who can send a text message to whoever is "on call"? This points out the need for an offline channel of communication w the site admins when there are site issues like this. Cell phone #? Email? What about a phone answering service that can screen calls and perhaps a follow "...
by CaliJim
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Importance of college summer internships??
Replies: 44
Views: 3062

Re: Importance of college summer internships??

Apparently the really cool ones with companies like Nike or Google are ridiculously competitive and she doesn't have a ridiculously competitive resume. I think a good internship is a big step up. My kids struggled to find salaried positions after graduating college because of 'no internships' on the resume.... perhaps suggest she aim a little lower...doesn't have to be an apple or a giigle or facebook or twitter or nike or whoever is popular..... there are many many many not quite that cool companies out there that have marketing departments looking for interns. cast a wide net. look into any research labs associated with the school, or departments in the school itself. dept heads love cheap labor! somebody out there needs an inexpensive a...
by CaliJim
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting Results
Replies: 16
Views: 2013

Re: Backtesting Results

abuss368 wrote: Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:59 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote: Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:53 pm
I am 37 years old. I am generally following the current AA, at the moment:

67% U.S. Equity
13% Intl Equity
20% Total US Bond

Thank you
Keep investing simple.
simplicity!!!!! absolutely great advice.
by CaliJim
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?
Replies: 65
Views: 8615

Re: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?

what percentage of net profits for US companies comes from international business? Last I remember this being discussed, Jack talks about this in one of his books if I recall correctly, but it has been a while since I've read much of his works. Anyhow, it is a non-trivial percentage. So if you only own US companies, the larger companies have diversified product lines and diversified global distribution channels, and so they are somewhat buffered from between vagaries of the US economy and economic policies and their individual results benefit from this diversification. Which as some believe, is the only true free lunch. Although, when the US catches a cold the rest of the world catches the flu. without getting into global politics, which is...
by CaliJim
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?
Replies: 65
Views: 8615

Re: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?

I like where you are going with your answer. it is very literal. yet it is not quite correct an extremely rich bloke could have more invested in international stocks than many others could have in margin debt. But I like the idea of going with a negative with the AA. -45%/-10%, would that be a 'higher allocation than 100%/0=undefined/infinity!!!!!! Mr Megabucks could be $100,000,000 Intl over $0 US or he could borrow against his home and be $-30,000,000 Intl / $0??? how are we comparing the AAs What exactly constitutes a higher allocation? absolute value invested or pct of abs value over net total portfolio? If the margin is collaterized by some other asset, do we evaluate the margin debt as negative or do we net it out against the collater...
by CaliJim
Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting Results
Replies: 16
Views: 2013

Re: Backtesting Results

I started my boglehead education by doing backtesting with Simba's Spreadsheet. Eventually I internalized what others here were saying about unpossibility of predicting the future. There is so much diffusion of results the effort is futility. monte carlo simulation is probably a better way to do it. save as much as you can. live well below your means, don't overestimate your risk tolerance, always own a good amount of safe assets (ie. bonds) so you can respond by rebalancing aggresively when equities go on sale which they inevitably be during your lifetime markets. Having a balanced stock AND bond port will cushion the blow when stocks decline 50% If only 50/50 port suffers only a 25% decline when equities decline by half. This is a huge be...
by CaliJim
Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How often do you deep clean?
Replies: 52
Views: 3597

Re: How often do you deep clean?

keep things relatively clean as you go and full depth cleaning is superfluous
by CaliJim
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 9969

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

Jack Bogle wrote "The beauty of owning the market is that you eliminate individual stock risk, you eliminate market sector risk, and you eliminate manager risk. -- In my view, owning the market and holding it forever is the ultimate strategy for winners." The Three-Fund Portfolio Best wishes. Taylor Beautiful quote. It is often hard to distill a complex topic down to something so clear and unarguable. Jack puts it so simply and succinctly. One could add by eliminating all these risk, one reduces, if not eliminates investor behavioural risk. some stock pickering investors who are wedded to their methods might argue that indexers are "leaving money on the table". and that WINNING means BEATING THE INDEX. I have an former ...
by CaliJim
Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum dump vs monthly investment
Replies: 10
Views: 887

Re: lump sum dump vs monthly investment

But if your goal is to minimize your regret, you may wish to dollar cost average into the market over a period of time, perhaps a period of months or a year. I minimize regret the same way Harry Markowitz does. Harry Markowitz won the Nobel Prize for exploring the mathematical tradeoff between risk and return. A few years ago the Wall Street Journal asked him how, given his work, he structured his own portfolio. He replied: I visualized my grief if the stock market went way up and I wasn’t in it – or if it went way down and I was completely in it. My intention was to minimize my future regret. So I split my contributions 50/50 between bonds and equities. (From Rational vs. Reasonable, Dec 11, 2018, by Morgan Housel) Whenever I have any mon...
by CaliJim
Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 9969

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/swedroe-investing-uncomfortably Active management, hedge funds, market timing are not a winning formula. Passively and doggedly spreading one’s bets across the factors that have been shown to provide returns over time can be a winning formula. Conventional investors effectively place all their bets in the single factor, market beta. The goal of investing is to meet one’s personal goals. So while psychologically it may be comfortable to have a conventional portfolio, failing conventionally may not allow one to reach his goals. A more robust portfolio can potentially be built by diversifying across uncorrelated sources of return. This requires putting aside several very human behavioral errors: ...
by CaliJim
Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What have you learned this year
Replies: 90
Views: 9637

Re: What have you learned this year

I learned how to prove that a parabola is a conic section, using an inscribed sphere tangent to the cone and the cutting plane. To make a parabola, the cutting plane has to be parallel to exactly one generating line of the cone. (The generating lines pass through the cone's apex and its base circle. With a cutting plane parallel to none of them, you get a circle or an ellipse. Parallel to two, you get a hyperbola. If the cutting plane includes the apex, you get degenerate cases of a point, a line, or two intersecting lines.) Back to the parabola... The sphere's circle of tangency to the cone lies in a plane that intersects the cutting plane. That line of intersection is the parabola's directrix. The point of tangency to the cutting plane i...
by CaliJim
Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What have you learned this year
Replies: 90
Views: 9637

Re: What have you learned this year

1)don't take your health for granted. it can change at any time.
2)don't ignore aches and pains
3)be prepared for anything
by CaliJim
Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Strategy/Approach to Negotiating with Commercial Real Estate Developer
Replies: 22
Views: 2093

Re: Strategy/Approach to Negotiating with Commercial Real Estate Developer

Do NOT mention any complicated issues such as a lower selling price for a share of the deal, etc. Just meet with the developer and let developer talk - you may find out some good info on what his/her pressure points are. Let the developer make the first purchase price offer, knowing it will be a lowball offer. Don't react to the price in any way. Find out what their timeline is, and ask questions you probably know the answer to, but ask anyway - does the house need to be fixed up before the sale, etc. etc. Find out if there is any advantage to a quick closing - ie does the developer want to fold the construction on the lot next door and future construction on your mothers lot into one project for economies of scale? The ability to do that ...
by CaliJim
Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Strategy/Approach to Negotiating with Commercial Real Estate Developer
Replies: 22
Views: 2093

Re: Strategy/Approach to Negotiating with Commercial Real Estate Developer

I’m guessing in a community the size of Austin there are only a few lawyers who really knows the lay of the land in something like this. Sure, there will be a lot of real estate lawyers, but not that many with superior insights on how this process really works. The superior ones may have conflicts, but hopefully you can find one who can assist you. You will also need to have professional accounting advice. While I understand the enthusiasm for an aggressive attitude, I generally keep in mind the saying that pigs get to eat and hogs get slaughtered. A situation like this can work out wonderfully for the property owner, or can come crashing down if it doesn’t get accomplished because of unreasonable expectations. Slow play… Might be a wonder...
by CaliJim
Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Strategy/Approach to Negotiating with Commercial Real Estate Developer
Replies: 22
Views: 2093

Re: Strategy/Approach to Negotiating with Commercial Real Estate Developer

How much did she pay for the property in 2015 and is there a house on the property that she is using as her primary residence or is it vacant land? If it is her primary residence she could exclude $250K of gain assuming she is single ($500K if married). If there is a house on the land the developer may want to subdivide the land (keeping an existing house or razing it). You'd want to understand what the local zoning rules are about subdividing the property (if there are any). I don't know if I would pay for an attorney. I'd start high and then see what they are willing to come down to. Your mom may no longer want to live there if her neighbor's two acre parcel has 4 or 6 houses packed on it. Thanks a lot. She paid <$200K for the property, ...
by CaliJim
Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Strategy/Approach to Negotiating with Commercial Real Estate Developer
Replies: 22
Views: 2093

Re: Strategy/Approach to Negotiating with Commercial Real Estate Developer

hang tough. slow play it. The developer most likely wants the property very very badly. Can you figure out what his economic model is for the property? What building permits he has pulled. Look at the his plans for the adjacent property if you can. Get friendly with a the county planners and building permit folks. Pump them for info. Figure out what exactly he wants to build on your mom's lot. Don't counter any low ball offers with a 'meet in the middle' number. Don't be afraid to raise him. I think it is very very very very unlikely that he will walk away from the table. Find another developer to be a spoiler in your negotiations. Competition helps a great deal! (I overpaid a little bit for the lot I currently own and built a new house on ...
by CaliJim
Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QE, massive crash, Dow 3000?
Replies: 39
Views: 7008

Re: QE, massive crash, Dow 3000?

Hi, everyone. I am new to investing and I would like to get your thoughts on this. I read a short post suggesting that QE set up an artificial floor to the stock market at Dow 6000. The author suggests that a crash could send the market below that level, for ex to Dow 3000 (=87% decline from current level). The short post is here: https://steemit.com/money/@marketreport/stock-market-where-is-the-bottom-dow-3000-is-possible-by-gregory-mannarino First: I'm no economist. Second: I can't predict whether the market will go up or down tomorrow. I have NO IDEA. Third: There is a relationship between money supply and stock prices. But there is no formula or historic correlation tendencies between money supply and the dow that justifies this guy's ...
by CaliJim
Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What common everyday inconvenience have you intentionally suffered for frugality?
Replies: 152
Views: 14302

Re: What common everyday inconvenience have you intentionally suffered for frugality?

slow computer
slow mobile phone

My life is SO MUCH BETTER after upgrading to faster processors and more memory!
by CaliJim
Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: That Extravagant Thing You Do
Replies: 411
Views: 67174

Re: What NON frugal thing did you do today?

7.7 mile hike up to the top (1950 ft), followed by $15 cheeseburger w/ two sides. after the hike, it was best tasting burger ever.
by CaliJim
Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: SITE OFFLINE (Dec 28) Friday, 2:00 PM Eastern (19:00 UTC) - software upgrade
Replies: 31
Views: 3542

Re: SITE OFFLINE (Dec 27) Thursday, 2:00 PM Eastern (19:00 UTC) - software upgrade

Thank you for all the time and effort you put in to keeping the site running!!!!!! :D

Support the site. Donate here via paypal or usps mail: https://www.bogleheads.org/support.php
by CaliJim
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dual coffee/espresso makers
Replies: 17
Views: 2023

Re: Dual coffee/espresso makers

we make due with pour over drip, an old style stove top espresso maker, microwave to heat the milk, and bonjour frother
mocha pot: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01M05REJH (like, works well)
frother: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00GMDOUHS (finiky on/off switch. sometimes needs percussive maintenance)
by CaliJim
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Enjoy a lump of KOL
Replies: 14
Views: 2463

Re: Enjoy a lump of KOL

I agree with nisiprius.

I wanted coal, but I got a few good books to read instead.

merry christmas
by CaliJim
Wed Dec 26, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Enjoy a lump of KOL
Replies: 14
Views: 2463

Re: Enjoy a lump of KOL

Nisi.... thank you for the education.

:P

When I was about 20 or 21, I lost my first significant sum by investing in an active "Natural Resources" fund.... I was thinking "natural resources are finite. finite supply, unlimited demand. It's got to go UP!.

How wrong I was....
by CaliJim
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 6558

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

Keep Calm and Boglehead On! So this is not one of those posts saying “don’t worry the stock market will snap back, buy on the dips.” The market may not come back, or it may not come back for a very long time. Look at the example of Japan. The Nikkei average peaked at 38,000 in 1990. It bottomed out 13 years later in 2003 at 7,600, i.e. an 80% drop. And in 2010, 20 years after the peak it was still below $10,000. … http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/TCwyNS5jJVI/AAAAAAAAIw4/M6kmMElo6OU/s1600/Two+Lost+Decades.png … While the “lost 2 decades” of Japan provides a cautionary tale, it may be more an example of the perils of investing in a single country’s stock market. My own rule of thumb is to invest in the Total World Stock index (VTWSX) an...
by CaliJim
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Enjoy a lump of KOL
Replies: 14
Views: 2463

Re: Enjoy a lump of KOL

tadamsmar wrote: Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:05 am The coal index fund (KOL) is well into bear territory, looks like a good buy.
OMG

No it does not. Never woukd a sector fund appear in a boglehead port
by CaliJim
Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: As of 12/26, should I be in cash?
Replies: 17
Views: 4171

Re: As of 12/26, should I be in cash?

Hello all - I'm a newbie here. I've been using the IBD system, not religiously, for about seven years. I'm 64 years old, and my IRA lost 50% of value during the last recession. Now it's down 22% since August. I'm not a wealthy guy, and I am alarmed about the past two days on the stock market. I should have a healthy chunk in bonds at my age, but I don't. I don't think the economy is headed in a good direction currently. IBD would have me in all cash right now, looking for good stuff to buy if things begin to turn around. I'm ready to cash out today(temporarily), but suspect that the market may go up temporarily on Wednesday the 26th. I'd hate to miss out on that, but I also am not interested in losing much more of my hard-earned cash. Any ...
by CaliJim
Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any Low Risk 4 % Return
Replies: 52
Views: 7776

Re: Is there any Low Risk 4 % Return

ssvincent wrote: Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:24 pm I 've kinda pulled out of the general US stock market until things settle, just wondering if there are places to park your money that are offer a decent return for the short term...

in Prime Money Market (VMMXX) is offering 2.4

and Ultra Short Bond (VUBFX) is 2.6

I do not want to do CDs .....

Is the other options REITs or GLD or am I missing anything ?
“Until things settle”
rofl

What do you know that millions of other market participants do not know.

This may be the bottom of the next bull market!!!

Nobody knows nothing about the future. Dont let fear drive your strategy. Fear is the path to the dark side.
by CaliJim
Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone rebalancing?
Replies: 34
Views: 3114

Re: Anyone rebalancing?

ugh.
Rebalance. Shmalance.
Doing portfolio analysis on christmas eve is not what I wanted to be doing today. Today I'm working on becoming a snowman!!!!
Image
by CaliJim
Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a Nassim Taleb portfolio?
Replies: 38
Views: 15833

Re: Is there a Nassim Taleb portfolio?

IIRC: Victoria F is a Taleb adherent and investor arhat.

viewtopic.php?t=70092
by CaliJim
Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adrian's Rule Revisited
Replies: 24
Views: 5407

Re: Adrian's Rule Revisited

bump it up
by CaliJim
Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Minimizing losses-what if anything are you doing
Replies: 18
Views: 2193

Re: Minimizing losses-what if anything are you doing

Hi Ron, Deep breath. Exhale slowly. Many (Most?) things cannot be controlled. It may be time to reset expectations perhaps? Experiencing one's first market correction is a great learning tool! Sit tight! Stay the course! Follow the instructions! Read the manual in the wiki! The main lesson is: ASSET ALLOCATION and PATIENCE ARE THE KEYS. See also posts about Adrian's Rule https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=30309 IMHO, and others (Bill Graham...) agree, investors should have a minimum of 20%-25% of their portfolio in cash/bond/fixed income investments. With your future savings and investments, DCA into an allocation with more bonds/fixed income. Regret is a powerful emotion. Regret and fear can be strong drivers of investment mi...
by CaliJim
Sun Dec 16, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Polyurethane- House STINKS
Replies: 19
Views: 3352

Re: Polyurethane- House STINKS

fabreeze? :twisted: