Bogleheads.org

I'm troubled about a matter involving a diamond ring recently appraised for $50,000. This ring is presently owned by a dear friend of mine, who acquired it when she was a child via a bequest from her grandmother. The ring had previously been passed down a couple of previous generations to the eldest daughter in the direct line of descent. My friend has a daughter who is turning 50 and a son a couple of years older. She has kept the ring in her safety deposit box for many years and now wishes to give it to her daughter upon her 50th birthday. My concern is that an heirloom such as this diamond ring may be more of a curse than a blessing given as a gift to the turning-50 daughter. My first concern is that my friend's son might feel slighted ...

I have a family member in India who needs a fairly substantial loan in the near future and is asking for my help. Let's say for argument that I am going to agree to loan them the money. I am based in the U.S. The loan will be money sent from a U.S. bank to a bank in India (not via Bitcoin (I think)). The loan amount will be anywhere from $9k to $25k. A bunch of questions: 1. Do I just walk into my local bank (Wells Fargo) and do a wire transfer? What is the preferred way to do this? 2. Is using a wire transfer company a less expensive way to do this (get a better exchange rate). Are they safe for this amount of money? 3. I understand that transfers of more than $10k will require filling out an IRS form. What about multiple transfers made t...

I am retired, in a high tax bracket, partly due to my RMD's. I did Roth conversions in the years leading up to my retirement. Would there be any reason to continue doing Roth conversions in my present situation? Thanks. Probably not. You are already receiving RMD income and probably SS benefits, and perhaps even a pension. That means more conversions could well increase your marginal rate or make you subject to IRMAA surcharges. But the real answer depends on the actual numbers including the amount of your actual distributions and other taxable income. The bottom line is that more conversions should not be done if they will increase your tax rate above the rate you would expect in the future if you did not convert. Other factors include wh...

That might be true, but the Vanguard website states the following: Source: https://investor.vanguard.com/trust-security/privacy-center/privacy-policy By my reading, providing your user name and password to a third party application (even once) goes against Vanguard's advice above. You may read it differently since you have I.T. experience, but I really don't see the need to take that chance. Regards, I have worked in IT for a long time and there is no way I would share my login or password. Not a chance. Then why did you bring up IT? lol If you have worked in IT then you would know about systems integrations via tokenization. Just saying. I have no idea what empower or anybody else does. Yes they probably have yearly security audits….. and...

I'd avoid this. "Free" just means you're the product, just like face book. Sharing passwords of financial sites is most likely a violation of the user agreement, so if something bad happens, data leak, hacking incident, etc. you'll be in a lousy position because you willingly shared your password. Regards, I just want you to understand that just because you put your password on their site that does not mean they store it. That might be true, but the Vanguard website states the following: Safeguard your account information. For your protection, you should not provide your Vanguard account information, username, or password to anyone. If you become aware of any suspicious activity relating to your account or if you suspect fraud, p...

Anyone using the free app. from Empower? I'm having a hard time dealing with giving them all my personal financial info. (bank and brokerage account numbers with routing numbers) in order that they can create your "Dashboard". I'd avoid this. "Free" just means you're the product, just like face book. Sharing passwords of financial sites is most likely a violation of the user agreement, so if something bad happens, data leak, hacking incident, etc. you'll be in a lousy position because you willingly shared your password. Regards, I just want you to understand that just because you put your password on their site that does not mean they store it. That might be true, but the Vanguard website states the following: Safeguard...

bshnew wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:14 am I did it! As a courtesy, I'll call my financial advisor to deliver the news that I'm ready to manage my investments solo. The de-linking process is already in the works at Schwab.

Boy, do I feel better. Thanks to all of you for your input and support.

Brooke

Glad it worked out for you. You are a much more forgiving person than I am. It’s true that you agreed to 1.7% but just because I can get someone to agree to something does not mean I should.

But again good luck and thumbs up to you for taking the high road.

At the rate VTI/VTSAX are moving downward, I feel they've got a good chance of continuing their downward spiral and it's anyone's guess if they will or will not regain their losses! Day after day, I find that my holdings of VTSAX has diminished more and more. I know this is what happens in a down market; however, due to my age (79) it's having a greater effect on me than in the past. Not a lot of time to make up the lower values. A result of the lack of an age based asset allocation. :oops: Anyone with an opinion? Title modified to remove all CAPs. Please remember forum protocol: - avoid posting in ALL CAPITAL LETTERS or otherwise using distracting formatting Thanks. Moderator Pops1860 If you will not run out of money don’t sweat it…. Easi...

Hello, My goal for 2023 is to part with my financial advisor, who chargers a whopping 1.7%. I know; please don't scold me! The sticky situation is that he's a good family friend, and I worry that this purely business decision will impact the friendship. After self-study, I feel completely capable of managing my finances on my own. Any thoughts or advice on how to proceed? Thanks, Brooke If he is charging you 1.7%, he is not really your friend. Just masquerading as a friend to keep his 1.7% passive gravy train rolling. Do you like knowing your “friend” is knowingly taking advantage of you? Exactly, it’s really laughable. Sorry but that’s the brutal truth. You might as well say they are having an affair with your spouse and are afraid to tel...

bshnew wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 5:25 pm Hello,

My goal for 2023 is to part with my financial advisor, who chargers a whopping 1.7%. I know; please don't scold me! The sticky situation is that he's a good family friend, and I worry that this purely business decision will impact the friendship. After self-study, I feel completely capable of managing my finances on my own. Any thoughts or advice on how to proceed?

Thanks,
Brooke

1.7%??? How about you are fired you thief? Sorry you don’t rip off friends. You don’t cheat family or friends… doubt they ever were your friend.

Arboecars wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:24 pm Reasonable minds will certainly differ about the direction of the market.

For perspective, you may wish to watch the highly recommended PBS program called, PBS Frontline: Age of Easy Money (Full Documentary)about the current financial situation, to gain some perspective on the economy.

It is sober, free, informative, and non-political.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpMLAQbSYAw

Did you post on the correct thread?

radiowave wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:03 pm OP, VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund) will cover all your domestic equity needs. Anything else is tilting.

Keep things simple, keep costs low.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... hilosophy

Of course it’s tilting. That’s why the fund was recommended and that’s why those funds exist.

Let’s say that someone recommends putting 25% of your portfolio into small cap value funds. I am using VBR in this instance. BUT VBR is also 20% mid cap. So I set my global portfolio to 35% VTI 40% VBR 15% VWO (international emerging markets) 10% VEA (International developed markets) I put this into Personal Capital 24.1% US large Cap 23.68% US small cap 20.61% US mid cap 24.9% International 6.72% is in REITs and cash Am I understanding things correctly and I did put more into SCV? I ended up needing to put in 40% into VBR (which is all I have available since I’m using Betterment with the portfolio. Or is it expected that I only put 30% into VBR since that is 30% Small cap? But 20% of VBR is mid cap They would probably recommend a DFA or A...

km91 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 3:05 pm

Logan Roy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:21 pm 1) Usually, because your bond will be worth less, and the likely cause of higher rates will be a higher bar to clear from inflation;
2) A bond investor should want falling rates and positive real yields.

These are obvious conclusions.

These are wrong conclusions for bond investors. If you are a bond trader you want rates to go down, if you are a bond investor you want rates to go up. I'm not speculating on bonds, I am saving money for long term goals. I prefer earning a higher return on my savings than a lower return, but that is just me

Good luck with that.

4% withdrawals in retirement are pretty darn easy when your cash is paying 4.5%... I don't think this is true at all. 4% SWR is 4% + CPI (initial 4% plus/minus 0% real). 4.5% APY is 4.5% nominal, -2% real. When your portfolio grows at -2% real, it's not a very good situation to be in. I think both are true. -2% real stinks to be sure. With the Fed buying so much debt, interest rates were artificially depressed which has many negative side affects such as hurting people needing fixed income investments, eventually causing inflation, not forcing government to deal rationally with taxes/spending. If governments have to spend more and more on debt servicing it is incentive to try to minimize it at some point or keep it at reasonable levels… go...

Yes, in the grand scheme, TIPS are almost rounding error … The problem from the government side is much much bigger than that…. So inflating it away, isn’t gonna happen… So we shouldn’t include that assumption when shining up our crystal balls, IMHO. Inflating away will happen. Current bond holders will suffer. Future obligations indexed to inflation just requires more work. Cola rules have been changed before and will be again. Anything done by the government can be undone by the government. TIPS are bonds that have some level of protection from the suffering that you have cited. Especially if you invest in a ladder of individual TIPS and hold them to maturity. I know that more than one poster who I respect maintain that you can accomplis...

... And interestingly, Ben Bernanke had this to say on the topic while still in his role as Fed Chair... "Fed chairman Ben Bernanke sat before the Joint Economic Committee, which asked him point blank about inflating away debt. His answer gets to the heart of the matter: "Given the structure of our debt, [inflation] wouldn't even help reduce the debt ... given that so many of our obligations are indexed." ... I'm guessing that's referring to obligations like Social Security, Military/Government Pensions, disability, and healthcare rather than TIPS ... isn't the market cap of TIPS a small fraction of the overall treasury securities ? Yes, in the grand scheme, TIPS are almost rounding error … The problem from the government si...

... And interestingly, Ben Bernanke had this to say on the topic while still in his role as Fed Chair... "Fed chairman Ben Bernanke sat before the Joint Economic Committee, which asked him point blank about inflating away debt. His answer gets to the heart of the matter: "Given the structure of our debt, [inflation] wouldn't even help reduce the debt ... given that so many of our obligations are indexed." ... I'm guessing that's referring to obligations like Social Security, Military/Government Pensions, disability, and healthcare rather than TIPS ... isn't the market cap of TIPS a small fraction of the overall treasury securities ? Yes, in the grand scheme, TIPS are almost rounding error … The problem from the government si...

... And interestingly, Ben Bernanke had this to say on the topic while still in his role as Fed Chair... "Fed chairman Ben Bernanke sat before the Joint Economic Committee, which asked him point blank about inflating away debt. His answer gets to the heart of the matter: "Given the structure of our debt, [inflation] wouldn't even help reduce the debt ... given that so many of our obligations are indexed." ... I'm guessing that's referring to obligations like Social Security, Military/Government Pensions, disability, and healthcare rather than TIPS ... isn't the market cap of TIPS a small fraction of the overall treasury securities ? Yes, in the grand scheme, TIPS are almost rounding error … The problem from the government si...

Florida Orange wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 4:57 am

BitTooAggressive wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 4:40 am Huge risk. Inflation, default, opportunity cost. So in twenty years i break even in nominal dollars, losing money to inflation and then having to pay taxes on those make-believe returns.

As was specified in a previous post, we are excluding those risks. The discussion is about how the duration formula applies to nominal price recovery absent other types of risks.

Then why did you even say something was no risk if you excluded them all? It makes no sense to make that statement.

It may recover, but you don't know when, only that it will happen sometime. Whatever date you predict could have interest rates move by x% the day before and since your bond fund has constant duration you're always exposed to interest rate risk. The twice duration calculation you refer to assumes no further interest rate changes, but we don't know whether that will hold. The duration of the fund tells you how long it will take for prices to recover assuming a one time change in interest rates. Roughly twice the duration is the formula assuming continuously rising rates. Right, if you assume particular interest rate profiles, you know the recovery date. But you don't know that ahead of time. Those two cases you highlight differ by a factor ...

Flashes1 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 07, 2023 8:54 am In hindsight, I was foolish to have invested in bonds when interest rates were near 0%. There was no way for them to increase in value and were 100% guaranteed to lose money because it was a given rates would one day increase (just didn't know when).

Now that we've hopefully gotten closer to the end of further rate increases (hopefully less than 100 bps to go), bonds have become attractive again. With higher rates the Fed once again has the ability to lower them as we enter a recession thus increasing bond values.

It did not take hindsight to see buying bonds at near zero was foolish.

I would guess long term and intermediate term rates will increase if the Fed unwinds like they say. Nobody knows for sure if they will however and how fast they do. I give myself a 53.47% chance of being correct.

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:03 am

BitTooAggressive wrote: ↑Sat Feb 25, 2023 4:25 am You don’t have to refill the cash bucket. That is just an option. Once I start taking SS my need for a cash bucket is greatly diminished.

Well that's kind of assuming that you only run into one crash before SS. Now if you're 60 yo or older then that might be, but younger retirees would have to refill the cash bucket.

They might need to but might not. You are most vulnerable typically to sequence of returns at the beginning. So IMO if you have enough to cover yourself through a bad sequence at the start your cash bucket has done it’s job.

There is always a possibility that the cash bucket is not sufficient but at least you have mitigated the damage. There could always be an economic upheaval worse than the Great Depression.

My point is that we use emotion to decide our asset allocation and there is little difference if we choose a small portion of it in cash and then call it by a fancy name a "bucket." Buckets are nothing more than mental accounting that makes some people feel better. It is no different than some of the other arbitrary decisions we make such as having an AA that is 50/50 or 60/40. Why does one person choose 50% in bonds while another chooses 40%? Why does someone else choose 50/40/10 where 10% is a pile of cash in a HYSA or money market account? It's all emotion based and nothing more. Some people need an extra 10% in bonds or cash. It makes them feel better. Well a bucket is somewhat special because the implication is that you spen...

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:10 pm

EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:07 pm Fact: Historically over long term one comes out with the largest portfolio being 100% equities. That includes downturns.

It includes downturns but the SWR studies show higher failure rate for 100% equities than 60/40. The point is that 100% equities could run out of money when you consider withdrawals.

It depends on your withdrawal rate. If your withdrawal rate is low enough 100% equities may be fine.

True or False? These are the two questions that matter (impact outcome): 1) How much cash will you hold as a percentage of your overall portfolio (as compared to your bond and stock percentages respectively)? 2) If/when/how will you rebalance? The rest of the "bucket strategy" really is just window dressing (mental accounting) and has no meaningful impact on outcome. Constant weighted, say 67/33 yearly rebalanced, compared to two buckets 33/67 initial stock/bond, spend bonds first, transitions to 100/0 stock/bonds, time averages 67/33 stock bonds. Measure all historic outcomes for both of those and they'll be different. For the worse start year of one the other will have been better, in some cases considerable (significantly) bet...

My point is that we use emotion to decide our asset allocation and there is little difference if we choose a small portion of it in cash and then call it by a fancy name a "bucket." Buckets are nothing more than mental accounting that makes some people feel better. It is no different than some of the other arbitrary decisions we make such as having an AA that is 50/50 or 60/40. Why does one person choose 50% in bonds while another chooses 40%? Why does someone else choose 50/40/10 where 10% is a pile of cash in a HYSA or money market account? It's all emotion based and nothing more. Some people need an extra 10% in bonds or cash. It makes them feel better. Well a bucket is somewhat special because the implication is that you spen...

I prefer to hold mutual funds for reasons given above. However I switched from VFSAX (small cap international) to VSS because the 9 basis point difference is crazy. It really adds up.

True or False? These are the two questions that matter (impact outcome): 1) How much cash will you hold as a percentage of your overall portfolio (as compared to your bond and stock percentages respectively)? 2) If/when/how will you rebalance? The rest of the "bucket strategy" really is just window dressing (mental accounting) and has no meaningful impact on outcome. My guess is these two "debaters" are both very clever. They likely already agree that the above is true. Framing this as a debate and friendly controversy between the two of them makes this topic click bait and attracts readers to their respective blogs. Define cash. My cash bucket will be short term high quality bonds and short term tips. Is that what you ...

ERN is a mild proponent of using a bond tent to mitigate SORR. https://earlyretirementnow.com/2019/07/31/rising-equity-glidepath-4-percent-safe-withdrawal-rate-60-year-retirement/ I recall listening to a podcast a couple of years ago where he not only recommended the bond tent and suggested you could actually increase your withdrawal rate a bit if you used one, he even said something like "stay 60/40 until you hit a bear market, then start gliding up (selling bonds and letting your equity percentage drift up as a result)....." https://hackyourwealth.com/asset-allocation Seems like he isn't quite the Strategic Asset Allocation purist he sounds like lately. Selling bonds or fixed income and letting your equity percentage creep up s...

You are too young to retire with your assets and wanting to start a family. Once you start a family your expenses will increase considerably. I would suggest you find a job you can be happy with, it does not have to be a 9 to 5 you hate. Or you can try and start another business, or perhaps sell yours. Work for the competition even.

Every year you can not dip into your current assets is one less year you need them and one more year for them to grow.

You are young. I would probably be 80% stocks , 20% high quality bonds with half the bonds being short duration.

Have a diversified low cost, index stock portfolio, with exposure across the world, and exposure to small caps and a tilt to value.

ERN is a mild proponent of using a bond tent to mitigate SORR. https://earlyretirementnow.com/2019/07/31/rising-equity-glidepath-4-percent-safe-withdrawal-rate-60-year-retirement/ I recall listening to a podcast a couple of years ago where he not only recommended the bond tent and suggested you could actually increase your withdrawal rate a bit if you used one, he even said something like "stay 60/40 until you hit a bear market, then start gliding up (selling bonds and letting your equity percentage drift up as a result)....." https://hackyourwealth.com/asset-allocation Seems like he isn't quite the Strategic Asset Allocation purist he sounds like lately. Selling bonds or fixed income and letting your equity percentage creep up s...

My thoughts on the bucket strategy: 1. Bonds probably work better for this purpose than cash (in which case, you're just moving your asset allocation slightly) 2. It could help ride out a few years of a stock market crash - but isn't perfect, you don't know if the crash will be 3 years or effectively much longer (ex. 2000-2009) 3. It would only really be of use during the spenddown phase AKA retirement 4. It would not help during most inflationary periods, which are often bigger threats to retirement than the typical market crash. (1906-1921, 1966-1982) 5. If cash is used for this purpose, it is losing out in the inflationary periods (most savings accounts or CD rates have historically been below the rate of inflation) 6. If cash is used f...

My thoughts on the bucket strategy: 1. Bonds probably work better for this purpose than cash (in which case, you're just moving your asset allocation slightly) 2. It could help ride out a few years of a stock market crash - but isn't perfect, you don't know if the crash will be 3 years or effectively much longer (ex. 2000-2009) 3. It would only really be of use during the spenddown phase AKA retirement 4. It would not help during most inflationary periods, which are often bigger threats to retirement than the typical market crash. (1906-1921, 1966-1982) 5. If cash is used for this purpose, it is losing out in the inflationary periods (most savings accounts or CD rates have historically been below the rate of inflation) 6. If cash is used f...

Bucket strategies are great for people who like them. Many different ways to do it. If someone wants to pick one specific way to do a bucket strategy and say it is inefficient I bet their are many people who do find it efficient for them. How can anyone say they are ineffective when they are different from person to person. Way too much over analyzing going on from ”experts”. The best approach to retirement spending I have seen comes from the guys doing the Retirement and IRA Show podcast. They don’t call their approach buckets but they clearly are. The very fact that there are so many flavors of bucket strategies is actually evidence that none of them are effective. If one specific strategy really worked, we would all know it and use it. ...

Feel free to point out any of the Christine Benz articles where she demonstrates buckets helping. Of the half dozen papers I have read by her on the subject, I have yet to come across that one... Some people like complexity because they think it means they are sophisticated. I am more than willing to add tons of complexity. I just want it to do something. If buckets were great at reducing SORR, it would be trivial to demonstrate that. But for some reason none of the bucket advocates can every post such a study while everyone who does look at it comes to the ineffective conclusion. The bad news about buckets is that they don't help. The good news is they don't hurt. Feel free to add them. Just don't pretend they are helping. Ms. Benz analyz...

Bucket strategies are great for people who like them. Many different ways to do it. If someone wants to pick one specific way to do a bucket strategy and say it is inefficient I bet their are many people who do find it efficient for them. How can anyone say they are ineffective when they are different from person to person. Way too much over analyzing going on from ”experts”. The best approach to retirement spending I have seen comes from the guys doing the Retirement and IRA Show podcast. They don’t call their approach buckets but they clearly are. The very fact that there are so many flavors of bucket strategies is actually evidence that none of them are effective. If one specific strategy really worked, we would all know it and use it. ...

boglerdude wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:36 pm Is it a free market if fed or primary dealers are required to buy treasuries

Agree with your thoughts. We have an aging population increasing the demand for bonds vs stocks somewhat. We also have the Fed that has bought 50% of US long and intermediate debt. I would be very cautious of the notion that bond yields will accurately forecast inflation.

Are you committed to nominal bonds, and if so why? I note at least many models suggest that people near or in retirement looking to moderate sequence of (real) returns risk should typically use mostly or all inflation protected bonds if possible. And TIPS in particular also get a state and local tax break. Thank you NiceUnparticularMan. This is exactly what I have been thinking of as well. I will be retiring in 8 years max. I have been thinking about selling half of my BND at a loss and buying LT TIPS from Auction that is starting today. Your bonds in your retirement should provide stability. They provide an asset you can sell when stocks are down also, if you are willing to deviate from your asset allocation. I plan to go into retirement ...

Are you committed to nominal bonds, and if so why? I note at least many models suggest that people near or in retirement looking to moderate sequence of (real) returns risk should typically use mostly or all inflation protected bonds if possible. And TIPS in particular also get a state and local tax break. Thank you NiceUnparticularMan. This is exactly what I have been thinking of as well. I will be retiring in 8 years max. I have been thinking about selling half of my BND at a loss and buying LT TIPS from Auction that is starting today. Your bonds in your retirement should provide stability. They provide an asset you can sell when stocks are down also, if you are willing to deviate from your asset allocation. I plan to go into retirement ...

Municipal bonds stink. Lower yield, higher risk and income is still counted when determining SS tax or IRMAA penalties.

I am happy with VBR. I am fine with getting some mid cap diversification too.

homebuyer6426 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 2:54 pm Yes but I felt the same way when I started using Fidelity. Took me about 6 months to really get comfortable with the interface.

Yeah I have bashed on vanguard’s but started having to use fidelity to help my dad because he is getting older. Fidelity is hard because every page has so many choices. The menu hierarchy is a little confusing to me at least.

I've heard that many insurance sales agents will limit how much of your assets you can put into an annuity at any one time. Despite how horrible some annuity products are, they have to be licensed by the state to sell insurance, and are held to some sort of suitability requirements. It would probably be more useful if OP had provided a link and/or more context about whatever it is they're asking about. https://youtu.be/tETVbnpoTLY He explains why that is the " SUGGESTION " he follows, that is recommended by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, in the video. And I'm assuming I can ladder SPIA's as I age even though I originally put 50% in. Hopefully the other 50% would grow enough to make the original 50% irrelevan...

After an initial scan through, I did not examine the funds I am unfamiliar with.

1). I would drop all sector funds as this is considered uncompensated risk. In other words you are taking a risk by overweighting a sector but there is no higher EXPECTED return for any sector over another.

2). I would increase international to be at least 30% and also hold some small cap or small cap value international. Yes international is not a consensus on this site but I strongly believe in diversification.

Today. Think it's gonna stay there for years? I don't. Agreed. Money market yield should drop below BND. But if BND yield is still going up, that's a 6.5% drop in price for every 1% increase. No, the price doesn't drop as a result of the BND yield increasing. It would drop if interest rates in general increase. Most people are not expecting that, but regardless, you shouldn't buy/avoid BND because of changes in NAV. You buy it for the yield it provides. You also don't buy it for money you need in less than 5 years, and thus the short term NAV changes are not relevant. Yes yield vs risk. With the duration of BND it can take many years to recover. In addition the Fed still holds about 50% of US long term and intermediate term debt and has st...

I would add picking individual stocks is a losers game statistically since out performing short term t bills is concentrated in few stocks.

randomguy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 26, 2023 5:19 pm

BitTooAggressive wrote: ↑Thu Jan 26, 2023 5:07 pm

Your just looking at allocation which is not complete. Last year BND was horribly down same as stocks. Someone just entering retirement would love to have cash or very short term bonds instead.

All bonds are not the same.

The discussion of what bonds to hold has pretty nothing to do with buckets. You can hold cash in your fixed AA if you want. Or 6 month treasuries. Or a bunch of other options. I know over the years plenty of people have pushed first 20% in long term bonds AND plenty more people objecting that the risk of that is too much and that even BND had too much duration risk. You can pick whatever duration risk you wan to have without holding money in a bucket.

I agree

I'll just make a mental note that what I've thought for years has been confirmed. The basic problem with bucket strategies, I think, is the idea of "a cash reserve big enough to ride through a bear market without needing to sell stocks." The problem is that there is no limit on the length of a bear market, and the statistics have the kind of "long tail" that makes near-guarantees impossible. Arguments such as this are specious because they suggest that if a defensive solution does not cover all possible scenarios, then it is not worth implementing. That's incorrect. Put simply: something is better than nothing. If I have 2 years of cash reserves that allow me not to withdraw retirement funds during a bear market that la...