Search found 2265 matches

by MossySF
Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 17
Views: 1211

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Real estate is local: * what price are you buying in at * what are the rents at that moment * what's the future housing appreciation (guess) * what's the future rental appreciation (guess) I mean if the average house in your area costs $2M, good luck getting approved for a mortgage -- much less a 0%...
by MossySF
Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 503
Views: 27875

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

First, the "disaster" word is totally overblown. Investing in MoviePass has been a disaster. I just read an article in Quartz about how people bought $250K worth of MoviePass' parent company based on "analyst buy positions" and now their stock is worth $500. THAT IS A DISASTER! For Bogleheads, getti...
by MossySF
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 503
Views: 27875

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

It's weird how the US keeps outperforming even though valuations have been higher relative to international for years. Not to be snarky, I'm genuinely curious: given that outperformance in large part has been the result of increase in equity price, which in turn results in the alleged overvaluation...
by MossySF
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Do This? [borrow from relative to pay off loan]
Replies: 55
Views: 2809

Re: Should I Do This? [borrow from relative to pay off loan]

My only suggestion if you take the loan -- absolutely no unnecessary spending until the loan is repaid. Even if it's "necessary" but it's flashy and everybody will know you just spent lots of money, don't do it. There's nothing that irritates family/friend more than first helping somebody in financi...
by MossySF
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 204
Views: 11034

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

We've got threads here saying valuations are too high and we should sell our stocks now.

And then we've got threads here saying "X stock" subclass has underperformed and we should bail and jump into the classes where valuations are too high.

It's time for Thunderdome!
by MossySF
Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I pay for a 401k?
Replies: 32
Views: 2140

Re: Should I pay for a 401k?

A SIMPLE IRA requires employer contributions. Either a 3% match or 2% non-elective contribution. Although, the match can be reduced to as low as 1% in two out of five years including the first two. This would appear to be a non-starter based on the OP. If not, Fidelity has removed their SIMPLE IRA ...
by MossySF
Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I pay for a 401k?
Replies: 32
Views: 2140

Re: Should I pay for a 401k?

I think this example highlights the power of tax-deferred growth. In fact, I could increase the 401k fee all the way to $1900 and still break even. If I'm maxing out the 401k each year, the spread is even better. So I think the answer is: yes, it's worthwhile to pay $700 front-loaded to gain access...
by MossySF
Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4277

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

I would still allocate at least 50% to stock because 65% is my target range. So IF I was to use some type of dynamic AA based on CAPE, reversion to mean, chasing previous worse sectors, over-rebalancing, etc -- it would be 50% min, 65% target, 80% max plan based on an algorithm I can calculate perce...
by MossySF
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I pay for a 401k?
Replies: 32
Views: 2140

Re: Should I pay for a 401k?

Ask your employer to consider a Vanguard SIMPLE IRA instead. The amounts you can contribute are less than a 401K but still much higher than a personal IRA -- and the fees are way less compared to a 401K.
by MossySF
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12775

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

The word "fail" seems to imply total disaster but the probability is there'd only be minor differences from a "top 3 rated" glide path. So you might have 2.7M at retirement instead of 2.9M -- OMG shoot yourself now?!?
by MossySF
Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you think I am being too conservative on buying a house?
Replies: 46
Views: 3612

Re: Do you think I am being too conservative on buying a house?

Shrug ... we were in a 1 bedroom condo -- rented 700sf? -- until our kids were 1 & 3. No big deal at that age. I still have fond memories -- especially of being able to force ourselves to not buy stuff. Our 1500sf place is now filled with clutter (sigh).
by MossySF
Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Levels of Wealth
Replies: 125
Views: 11421

Re: 3 Levels of Wealth

Having a fancy latte once is a while is a treat. Drink it every day and you realize it's all milk & sugar and your taste buds get immune to it. This applies to pretty much any kind of spending as you go up the levels of wealth. Somebody who casually buys a 250K sports car every few years -- it's the...
by MossySF
Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does TBM have such high turnover?
Replies: 13
Views: 1477

Re: Why does TBM have such high turnover?

TBM does not hold bonds to maturity because once it hits 13 months, it's no longer part of the index. Yes, the definition of "bond" does not include anything that matures within a year -- those are called "money market instruments". And yes, it seems like an extra expense just to avoid a year's wort...
by MossySF
Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is rollover to Roth with Pre-Tax $$ So Bad?
Replies: 28
Views: 2398

Re: Why is rollover to Roth with Pre-Tax $$ So Bad?

I'm having trouble conceptualizing why converting funds from a rollover ira with primarily pre-tax funds to a roth ira is viewed so negatively. After the rollover, these (pre-tax) funds will grow tax free, as if you were contributing to a roth fund right from the start. Wouldn't you rather pay that...
by MossySF
Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest
Replies: 75
Views: 10992

Re: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest

Shrug ... on the otherhand, the median person retires with about 200K net worth of which 150K is house equity leaving about 50K cash/stock/bonds. But we don't see a mass of seniors living & dying on the streets so they seem to mostly adjust to retirement despite not even having close to 1M much less...
by MossySF
Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transferring money from Canada - Wait for exchange rate to improve?
Replies: 11
Views: 421

Re: Transferring money from Canada - Wait for exchange rate to improve?

You can transfer the money now and then buy ETFs that hold all Canadian assets. That effectively gets you back into CAD after transfer.
by MossySF
Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel to Mainland China - Cyber Security
Replies: 25
Views: 2074

Re: Travel to Mainland China - Cyber Security

If you're just accessing Google apps on your phone, they'll all be using SSL security already so the extra VPN is not needed. Anything else you do will be a site-by-site, app-by-app choice. If you use a VPN vendor, shrug -- who knows how secure they really are? If you use your work VPN, you're proba...
by MossySF
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any luck Unlocking Sprint iPhone 5?
Replies: 7
Views: 610

Re: Any luck Unlocking Sprint iPhone 5?

https://qz.com/506976/how-to-unlock-iphone-5s/ The iPhone 5S and 5C are the first iPhones that Sprint is able to unlock. Sprint has no ability to unlock an iPhone 5. Way in the past, iPhones were split into GSM (AT&T, T-Mobile) versus CDMA (Sprint, Verizon) models with no ability to move between the...
by MossySF
Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel to Mainland China - Cyber Security
Replies: 25
Views: 2074

Re: Travel to Mainland China - Cyber Security

International data roaming is unblocked in China. I'm on T-Mobile which gives you free 2G speed data roaming in China (amongst many other countries) and using it, I can access Google, Youtube, Facebook and so on -- all the sites normally blocked using local internet services. The problem will be get...
by MossySF
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Received $1m windfall with additional upside; looking for feedback on plan to hedge against market correction
Replies: 40
Views: 6299

Re: Received $1m windfall with additional upside; looking for feedback on plan to hedge against market correction

Put in Prime MM now. Dollar cost average every quarter over a 2 year period. There was a previous thread where I analyze 0-10 year DCAs using stock history since 1871 ... 2 years seemed to be the sweet spot for balancing out downside protection versus losing out on future gains. If you still feel qu...
by MossySF
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in rising interest rate environment
Replies: 12
Views: 1117

Re: Bonds in rising interest rate environment

Expected REAL returns for intermediate bonds should always be low regardless of rising or dropping interest rates. How much does it really matter your expect range is about -2% to 2% real? Pyschological, you feel bad if you're in the negative but in numeric terms, it's a shrug of the shoulders. The ...
by MossySF
Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How come voice command on Garmin GPS is so lousy compared to Google Maps?
Replies: 22
Views: 1670

Re: How come voice command on Garmin GPS is so lousy compared to Google Maps?

Unless security is crucial, proprietary GPS systems based on downloading and locally storing maps on a dedicated device are inferior to cloud-based systems that can be, at least theoretically, updated constantly. ...and when you're in a remote area without access to the cloud.....then those systems...
by MossySF
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How come voice command on Garmin GPS is so lousy compared to Google Maps?
Replies: 22
Views: 1670

Re: How come voice command on Garmin GPS is so lousy compared to Google Maps?

Unless security is crucial, proprietary GPS systems based on downloading and locally storing maps on a dedicated device are inferior to cloud-based systems that can be, at least theoretically, updated constantly. ...and when you're in a remote area without access to the cloud.....then those systems...
by MossySF
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Business valuation opinions
Replies: 17
Views: 1289

Re: Business valuation opinions

I have experience in this arena because our SAS company was just acquired -- after years of discussions with other possible suiters. Because your company is 100% run by 2 founding partners, I personally don't think you could get many offers. You'd be lucky to get a 1X revenue offer. Think about it ....
by MossySF
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10079

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

There's nothing wrong with real estate ... But please stop using San Francisco Bay Area examples when you guys have no idea what it's like there. For example, guessing that you can get $8K-$10K/mo rent on a 1.5M house when the real number is $5K-$6K/mo. And stop assuming you COULD have bought back a...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10079

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

that sounds like it is ideal for a select few. someone with a high enough income to get all tax benefits but enough time/knowledge/experience to handle every stage of the RE process. definitely doesn't include me. I don't know why people say rental depreciation helps those with higher incomes. Over...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10079

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

So the real estate investor who bought just 4 houses in those areas is earning >$5K per month on the conservative side, but the index fund investor is earning a laughable 1.8% dividend which she can't spend now (reinvests because its locked in a 401k/IRA, or if in a taxable account since she doesn'...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 112
Views: 12316

Re: Very confused with the current market

What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? - by Ben Carlson http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ Here's more detailed analysis. I compared every 10 year period from 1871 to 2009: 10 year end average balance -- lumpsum vs DCA * lumpsum +160% * 2yr dca +148% * 3yr dca +1...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 112
Views: 12316

Re: Very confused with the current market

Why not execute that strategy now? If you think the markets are overvalued and will crash or at least be cheaper in the future you can sell 50% of your stock allocations in your tax deferred accounts today. Hold that in a money market and set up automatic exchanges to DCA over the course of 3-5 yea...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 112
Views: 12316

Re: Very confused with the current market

There's a lot of psychology here. It's easy to say ride it out when your portfolio is mostly from regular monthly/quarterly contributions over the years. But if we ignore tax consequences (e.g. tax deferred accounts), not selling is the same decision as buying. Hence if we flip the scenario around -...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 7114

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

To win our next game, we must score more points than our opponent. Rah! Rah! Go get them!
by MossySF
Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is the cost of renting private rooms in San Francisco Bay Area so cheap?
Replies: 26
Views: 4055

Re: Why is the cost of renting private rooms in San Francisco Bay Area so cheap?

There's a lot of tech companies that offer everything at work -- in order to make you stay at work longer and do more work for free. You can eat, shower, exercise, get your clothes laundered and so on all on the company campus. I bet a lot of single techies who work in this situation probably only r...
by MossySF
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Looking for ways to reduce taxes and keep more of my income]
Replies: 91
Views: 9086

Re: [Looking for ways to reduce taxes and keep more of my income]

HSAs only make sense if the employer is willing to give you more salary (or make your contributions) for taking a higher deductible plan. Or: 2. They reduce your medical premiums enough to make it worthwhile to take the HSA 3. They make an employer contribution to your HSA. Unfortunately, I don't k...
by MossySF
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Looking for ways to reduce taxes and keep more of my income]
Replies: 91
Views: 9086

Re: [Looking for ways to reduce taxes and keep more of my income]

w/ $28.5k 401k, $6.8k HSA, $2.6k dep FSA, 2 child tax credits: $82.9k --> 18.7% Child tax credits phase out starting at 110K for couples. The OP will get get nothing. HSAs only make sense if the employer is willing to give you more salary (or make your contributions) for taking a higher deductible ...
by MossySF
Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: best way to receive large sum of money from another country
Replies: 34
Views: 2477

Re: best way to receive large sum of money from another country

The reason I want to hold CDN dollars is in case I move back to Canada for several years . The other reason would be to wait for a better exchange rate . If I open bank in Canada do I use my address or a Canadian address? Unlike others here, I don't think it's a big deal to keep it in a Canadian ac...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks
Replies: 71
Views: 8273

Re: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks

As a perspective, the Reserve MMF went bust because it broke the buck by 2%. How much money do you guys even have in bank accounts or MMFs? 10K? 25K? Unless you just got an inheritance or sold your company, you probably don't have much. So in a worse-than-2008 situation, I'd be losing sleep over my ...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Looking for ways to reduce taxes and keep more of my income]
Replies: 91
Views: 9086

Re: Getting killed on taxes - any ideas?

There is little available for W2 wage earners -- no accountant will be able to find deductions that don't cost more than they're worth. I make less than the OP and pay a higher rate -- 24% Federal. 8% California. Forget about real estate -- you are over the limit to deduct rental losses. IF you had ...
by MossySF
Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Windfall advice for an overwhelmed person
Replies: 76
Views: 6414

Re: Is Bogleheads not right for me? Trying to generate monthly income before retirement

What do you suggest people do at the end of a bull market? The world does not owe you a good return. Sometimes not losing money is the best alternative. I'm actually in a similar situation as my company was just bought out. I'm doing allocating 30% for taxes, 15% for mortgage payoff (4.25% but not ...
by MossySF
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Windfall advice for an overwhelmed person
Replies: 76
Views: 6414

Re: Is Bogleheads not right for me? Trying to generate monthly income before retirement

If your debts are 2.5% for a 30 year mortgage, it's workable to go long (15+ years) on stocks. If your debts are 4% non-tax-deductible (which may be the case now with the increased standard deduction) and your time frame is 5 years, you need about 7.5% to break even just on the taxes. If this was 20...
by MossySF
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 23023

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

The answer is to make your situtation look like Buffett's.

Reduce your expenses by 80% so your current portfolio shoots up in asset:expense ratio. That will let you survive any temporary 40% stock drawdowns.
by MossySF
Tue May 22, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life vs Universal Life
Replies: 13
Views: 1266

Re: Whole Life vs Universal Life

Yes, a non-qualified plan can hold regular mutual funds ... but either the corporation or the employee will have to pay taxes on distributions every year. If the corporation holds the assets, then the corporation has to pay tax on the income earned to generate those assets. If the employee holds it,...
by MossySF
Mon May 21, 2018 1:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New HSA provider Lively offers investments for $30/yr fee
Replies: 261
Views: 38523

Re: New HSA provider Lively offers investments for $30/yr fee

Naive question: How do we know that, if Lively went out of business, investments made through the Fidelity platform would be safe? It makes perfect sense to me that they would, but (unlike FDIC protections) I don't really understand the mechanics of how a scenario like this would work. The accounts...
by MossySF
Fri May 18, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 550
Views: 36863

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

Let's see if we can break this into general population versus Bogleheads: General population: Odds are they will undersave and hence they need the tax deductions immediately in order to fund their living expenses. They won't be comparing contributing $2000 tradition versus $2500 Roth (including the ...
by MossySF
Thu May 17, 2018 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bed Bugs
Replies: 42
Views: 4698

Re: Bed Bugs

Fly-trap tape on and bedbug killer power around the legs. Sleeping in your protected beds entices the bugs out every night and if they can't feed, they slowly die from hunger. If they aren't enticed out, they just "hibernate" and can stay around forever. Just this alone won't do it. The bugs left i...
by MossySF
Thu May 17, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bed Bugs
Replies: 42
Views: 4698

Re: Bed Bugs

I had the beg bugs before. The professionals are hit and miss. They can spray and spray and if they don't get them all, they come out again. The best way is to protect the beds making sure the mattresses and beddings are completely clean. Fly-trap tape on and bedbug killer power around the legs. Sle...
by MossySF
Wed May 16, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?
Replies: 71
Views: 11078

Re: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?

2%-3% higher than similarly termed CDs So if similar termed CD is paying 2%, this "fixed annuity" will be paying 2.04-2.06%, correct? Or am I not interpreting your +2-3% incorrectly? Yes, interpretation is wrong. Although the gap appears smaller now that rates have gone up -- some quick searches on...
by MossySF
Wed May 16, 2018 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?
Replies: 71
Views: 11078

Re: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?

Fixed annuities are principle protected as long as you stick below the state-guarantee limits. So for $1M, you could open a fixed annuity in 4 different states. But whether the rates are 4% after-tax, I don't know. I'm not sure you and the OP are using the term "principal protected" in the same way...
by MossySF
Tue May 15, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?
Replies: 71
Views: 11078

Re: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?

I'm betting the op could spent a million dollars and easily buy an annuity that would pay him 40k after tax a year. Do you know of any annuities that are "Principle protected", as required by the OP? Fixed annuities are principle protected as long as you stick below the state-guarantee limits. So f...
by MossySF
Mon May 14, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire Internationally for FIRE
Replies: 94
Views: 12318

Re: Retire Internationally for FIRE

I would not put in 500k euros in a country that I don't have much legal rights, unless that is just 1% of my networth. In developed countries, the laws cover visitors just like they cover residents and citizens. Even illegal immigrants have rights under the laws. So If you're just a visitor and you...