Search found 2282 matches

by MossySF
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I can't take this anymore=) I'm selling stocks and buying bonds!
Replies: 65
Views: 7269

Re: I can't take this anymore=) I'm selling stocks and buying bonds!

With all the swings up and down recently I am finding that it's too much volatility for me. My portfolio has gone down by $12000 over the past few days. I know people on here say it's a blip on the radar, but when I think about what I have to go through to earn $12k ($12k = two months of STRESSFUL ...
by MossySF
Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 40
Views: 4125

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

Huh, wouldn't it be good to retire at a stock market peak? E.g. you SOLD at the peak in order to switch to a more conservative retirement AA?
by MossySF
Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment
Replies: 64
Views: 6130

Re: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment

I've yet to read through a quality explanation of why bond funds don't get hammered in a rising rate environment? What's your definition of hammered? Will bonds do worse when interest rates go up versus when they are flat or go down? Of course. Do you consider say a 2% drop for Total Bond Market ha...
by MossySF
Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China Still An Emerging Market?
Replies: 24
Views: 1970

Re: China Still An Emerging Market?

If we're talking about just "government" bonds, China has the better ability to repay.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/government-budget
https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-budget

Private companies, who knows?

But of course, government debt is not what determines EM status or not.
by MossySF
Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to Encrypt a Text file?
Replies: 53
Views: 3889

Re: How to Encrypt a Text file?

My recommendation ... if you don't regularly encrypt & decrypt, you WILL FORGET the password ... unless it's so simple as to be easily crackable. Hence, use something like LastPass. LastPass not only can save your passwords but also can let you write secure notes that require you to enter your passw...
by MossySF
Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reaction to Market
Replies: 71
Views: 7642

Re: Reaction to Market

$100K paper loss on 3% drop means $700K gain last year .. probably $1M-$1.5M over the last 5+ years.

You take the bad with the good.
by MossySF
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: tablet or small laptop for general and travel computer?
Replies: 41
Views: 2318

Re: tablet or small laptop for general and travel computer?

Flippable Chromebook with touchscreen.

I got the Acer R11 Chromebook for $220 -- and Acer Flip 15 for $370.
by MossySF
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?
Replies: 25
Views: 2291

Re: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?

Even though Tesla 3 is advertised as $35K, average price that is sold is close to $50K. Rich people dispose their Audis and Mercedes or BMW to get Tesla but how many people in the US have that kind of income. Hahaha ... people go into debt and mess up their finances ALL THE TIME to drive MB/BMW/Audi.
by MossySF
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?
Replies: 25
Views: 2291

Re: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?

As a company, I'm not interested in investing in individual Tesla stock positions either for or against.

As a consumer, these cars are amazing. Given the choice between a Model 3 and a similarly-priced BMW 340, Tesla all the way.
by MossySF
Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 123
Views: 14759

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

Eddie Vampert has a plan to convert Sears debt that will net ESL another $1B in profits. What'll it do regular Sears shareholders -- well tough luck.
by MossySF
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 123
Views: 14759

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

This article from last year is very illustrative about what is going on inside Sears. Some investors (e.g. CNBC's Jim Cramer) thought that Fast Eddie would transform Sears into some sort of real estate hedge fund while turning the retail around. But instead, Sears has a CEO who terrorizes the senio...
by MossySF
Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6158

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

Banks, lenders, investors are already free to set any rate they want. The Fed rate only applies to inter-bank lending. Have you noticed the bank savings rates & MMF rates have been going up the past few months even before this Fed announcement? You might say the Fed is just moving their rates follow...
by MossySF
Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My Very First Smartphone [Samsung Galaxy S9+] — Please Critique This Plan
Replies: 123
Views: 6641

Re: My Very First Smartphone — Please Critique This Plan

In general, $400 smartphones will roughly do everything that a $800+ one will do. Except take great photos. A $400 phone will take okay photos in daylight. Night-time lighting or the front-facing camera? It'll usually end up a blurry mess. So if a smartphone going to be a camera replacement also, sp...
by MossySF
Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Retire in Your 30's with $1 Million in the Bank
Replies: 148
Views: 18648

Re: How to Retire in Your 30's with $1 Million in the Bank

Obviously the crazy high income/savers here -- where 2% SWR is too aggressive -- are aghast at bailing from your career with "just" $1M at ~30. But consider that regular Americans deal with this kind of penny pinching their entire lives with no $1M portfolio safety net. We just should be careful abo...
by MossySF
Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Piano for a child
Replies: 60
Views: 3248

Re: Piano for a child

$175 for a PX160 is a really nice price. Entry-level Yamaha and Casios are roughly par at key quality for $400-$500 new. At $700+ new, Roland FP30 has nicer feeling keys. Discussions for more expensive digital pianos is beyond the scope of this forum -- but there are options that can get you close e...
by MossySF
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 105789

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If you eyeball graphs, it "appears" that stock markets roughly have 7-8 year cycles. And if you're looking at 20 year performance, you end up with roughly either: 2x7 U.S. outperformance + 1x7 International outperformance or 1x7 U.S. outperformance + 2x7 International outperformance (It's rare to se...
by MossySF
Sun Aug 19, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Money Market Funds vs. Online Banks
Replies: 38
Views: 3820

Re: Money Market Funds vs. Online Banks

To be honest, I'm way more worried about ACH fraud than money market collapse cuz the ACH system is so decrepit. If you look at how it works, the security feels ludicrously weak. Hence I keep 2-3 months of spending cash in banks and the rest at either Vanguard money market or brokerage short-term bo...
by MossySF
Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 14024

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Real estate is local: * what price are you buying in at * what are the rents at that moment * what's the future housing appreciation (guess) * what's the future rental appreciation (guess) I mean if the average house in your area costs $2M, good luck getting approved for a mortgage -- much less a 0%...
by MossySF
Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 105789

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

First, the "disaster" word is totally overblown. Investing in MoviePass has been a disaster. I just read an article in Quartz about how people bought $250K worth of MoviePass' parent company based on "analyst buy positions" and now their stock is worth $500. THAT IS A DISASTER! For Bogleheads, getti...
by MossySF
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 105789

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

It's weird how the US keeps outperforming even though valuations have been higher relative to international for years. Not to be snarky, I'm genuinely curious: given that outperformance in large part has been the result of increase in equity price, which in turn results in the alleged overvaluation...
by MossySF
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Do This? [borrow from relative to pay off loan]
Replies: 55
Views: 3153

Re: Should I Do This? [borrow from relative to pay off loan]

My only suggestion if you take the loan -- absolutely no unnecessary spending until the loan is repaid. Even if it's "necessary" but it's flashy and everybody will know you just spent lots of money, don't do it. There's nothing that irritates family/friend more than first helping somebody in financi...
by MossySF
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14592

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

We've got threads here saying valuations are too high and we should sell our stocks now.

And then we've got threads here saying "X stock" subclass has underperformed and we should bail and jump into the classes where valuations are too high.

It's time for Thunderdome!
by MossySF
Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I pay for a 401k?
Replies: 32
Views: 2334

Re: Should I pay for a 401k?

A SIMPLE IRA requires employer contributions. Either a 3% match or 2% non-elective contribution. Although, the match can be reduced to as low as 1% in two out of five years including the first two. This would appear to be a non-starter based on the OP. If not, Fidelity has removed their SIMPLE IRA ...
by MossySF
Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I pay for a 401k?
Replies: 32
Views: 2334

Re: Should I pay for a 401k?

I think this example highlights the power of tax-deferred growth. In fact, I could increase the 401k fee all the way to $1900 and still break even. If I'm maxing out the 401k each year, the spread is even better. So I think the answer is: yes, it's worthwhile to pay $700 front-loaded to gain access...
by MossySF
Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4815

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

I would still allocate at least 50% to stock because 65% is my target range. So IF I was to use some type of dynamic AA based on CAPE, reversion to mean, chasing previous worse sectors, over-rebalancing, etc -- it would be 50% min, 65% target, 80% max plan based on an algorithm I can calculate perce...
by MossySF
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I pay for a 401k?
Replies: 32
Views: 2334

Re: Should I pay for a 401k?

Ask your employer to consider a Vanguard SIMPLE IRA instead. The amounts you can contribute are less than a 401K but still much higher than a personal IRA -- and the fees are way less compared to a 401K.
by MossySF
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 14161

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

The word "fail" seems to imply total disaster but the probability is there'd only be minor differences from a "top 3 rated" glide path. So you might have 2.7M at retirement instead of 2.9M -- OMG shoot yourself now?!?
by MossySF
Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you think I am being too conservative on buying a house?
Replies: 46
Views: 3894

Re: Do you think I am being too conservative on buying a house?

Shrug ... we were in a 1 bedroom condo -- rented 700sf? -- until our kids were 1 & 3. No big deal at that age. I still have fond memories -- especially of being able to force ourselves to not buy stuff. Our 1500sf place is now filled with clutter (sigh).
by MossySF
Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Levels of Wealth
Replies: 125
Views: 12151

Re: 3 Levels of Wealth

Having a fancy latte once is a while is a treat. Drink it every day and you realize it's all milk & sugar and your taste buds get immune to it. This applies to pretty much any kind of spending as you go up the levels of wealth. Somebody who casually buys a 250K sports car every few years -- it's the...
by MossySF
Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does TBM have such high turnover?
Replies: 13
Views: 1593

Re: Why does TBM have such high turnover?

TBM does not hold bonds to maturity because once it hits 13 months, it's no longer part of the index. Yes, the definition of "bond" does not include anything that matures within a year -- those are called "money market instruments". And yes, it seems like an extra expense just to avoid a year's wort...
by MossySF
Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is rollover to Roth with Pre-Tax $$ So Bad?
Replies: 28
Views: 2578

Re: Why is rollover to Roth with Pre-Tax $$ So Bad?

I'm having trouble conceptualizing why converting funds from a rollover ira with primarily pre-tax funds to a roth ira is viewed so negatively. After the rollover, these (pre-tax) funds will grow tax free, as if you were contributing to a roth fund right from the start. Wouldn't you rather pay that...
by MossySF
Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest
Replies: 75
Views: 11460

Re: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest

Shrug ... on the otherhand, the median person retires with about 200K net worth of which 150K is house equity leaving about 50K cash/stock/bonds. But we don't see a mass of seniors living & dying on the streets so they seem to mostly adjust to retirement despite not even having close to 1M much less...
by MossySF
Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transferring money from Canada - Wait for exchange rate to improve?
Replies: 11
Views: 512

Re: Transferring money from Canada - Wait for exchange rate to improve?

You can transfer the money now and then buy ETFs that hold all Canadian assets. That effectively gets you back into CAD after transfer.
by MossySF
Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel to Mainland China - Cyber Security
Replies: 27
Views: 2633

Re: Travel to Mainland China - Cyber Security

If you're just accessing Google apps on your phone, they'll all be using SSL security already so the extra VPN is not needed. Anything else you do will be a site-by-site, app-by-app choice. If you use a VPN vendor, shrug -- who knows how secure they really are? If you use your work VPN, you're proba...
by MossySF
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any luck Unlocking Sprint iPhone 5?
Replies: 7
Views: 650

Re: Any luck Unlocking Sprint iPhone 5?

https://qz.com/506976/how-to-unlock-iphone-5s/ The iPhone 5S and 5C are the first iPhones that Sprint is able to unlock. Sprint has no ability to unlock an iPhone 5. Way in the past, iPhones were split into GSM (AT&T, T-Mobile) versus CDMA (Sprint, Verizon) models with no ability to move between the...
by MossySF
Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel to Mainland China - Cyber Security
Replies: 27
Views: 2633

Re: Travel to Mainland China - Cyber Security

International data roaming is unblocked in China. I'm on T-Mobile which gives you free 2G speed data roaming in China (amongst many other countries) and using it, I can access Google, Youtube, Facebook and so on -- all the sites normally blocked using local internet services. The problem will be get...
by MossySF
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Received $1m windfall with additional upside; looking for feedback on plan to hedge against market correction
Replies: 44
Views: 7655

Re: Received $1m windfall with additional upside; looking for feedback on plan to hedge against market correction

Put in Prime MM now. Dollar cost average every quarter over a 2 year period. There was a previous thread where I analyze 0-10 year DCAs using stock history since 1871 ... 2 years seemed to be the sweet spot for balancing out downside protection versus losing out on future gains. If you still feel qu...
by MossySF
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in rising interest rate environment
Replies: 12
Views: 1291

Re: Bonds in rising interest rate environment

Expected REAL returns for intermediate bonds should always be low regardless of rising or dropping interest rates. How much does it really matter your expect range is about -2% to 2% real? Pyschological, you feel bad if you're in the negative but in numeric terms, it's a shrug of the shoulders. The ...
by MossySF
Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How come voice command on Garmin GPS is so lousy compared to Google Maps?
Replies: 22
Views: 1784

Re: How come voice command on Garmin GPS is so lousy compared to Google Maps?

Unless security is crucial, proprietary GPS systems based on downloading and locally storing maps on a dedicated device are inferior to cloud-based systems that can be, at least theoretically, updated constantly. ...and when you're in a remote area without access to the cloud.....then those systems...
by MossySF
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How come voice command on Garmin GPS is so lousy compared to Google Maps?
Replies: 22
Views: 1784

Re: How come voice command on Garmin GPS is so lousy compared to Google Maps?

Unless security is crucial, proprietary GPS systems based on downloading and locally storing maps on a dedicated device are inferior to cloud-based systems that can be, at least theoretically, updated constantly. ...and when you're in a remote area without access to the cloud.....then those systems...
by MossySF
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Business valuation opinions
Replies: 17
Views: 1379

Re: Business valuation opinions

I have experience in this arena because our SAS company was just acquired -- after years of discussions with other possible suiters. Because your company is 100% run by 2 founding partners, I personally don't think you could get many offers. You'd be lucky to get a 1X revenue offer. Think about it ....
by MossySF
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10918

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

There's nothing wrong with real estate ... But please stop using San Francisco Bay Area examples when you guys have no idea what it's like there. For example, guessing that you can get $8K-$10K/mo rent on a 1.5M house when the real number is $5K-$6K/mo. And stop assuming you COULD have bought back a...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10918

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

that sounds like it is ideal for a select few. someone with a high enough income to get all tax benefits but enough time/knowledge/experience to handle every stage of the RE process. definitely doesn't include me. I don't know why people say rental depreciation helps those with higher incomes. Over...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10918

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

So the real estate investor who bought just 4 houses in those areas is earning >$5K per month on the conservative side, but the index fund investor is earning a laughable 1.8% dividend which she can't spend now (reinvests because its locked in a 401k/IRA, or if in a taxable account since she doesn'...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 112
Views: 13159

Re: Very confused with the current market

What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? - by Ben Carlson http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ Here's more detailed analysis. I compared every 10 year period from 1871 to 2009: 10 year end average balance -- lumpsum vs DCA * lumpsum +160% * 2yr dca +148% * 3yr dca +1...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 112
Views: 13159

Re: Very confused with the current market

Why not execute that strategy now? If you think the markets are overvalued and will crash or at least be cheaper in the future you can sell 50% of your stock allocations in your tax deferred accounts today. Hold that in a money market and set up automatic exchanges to DCA over the course of 3-5 yea...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 112
Views: 13159

Re: Very confused with the current market

There's a lot of psychology here. It's easy to say ride it out when your portfolio is mostly from regular monthly/quarterly contributions over the years. But if we ignore tax consequences (e.g. tax deferred accounts), not selling is the same decision as buying. Hence if we flip the scenario around -...
by MossySF
Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 7348

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

To win our next game, we must score more points than our opponent. Rah! Rah! Go get them!
by MossySF
Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is the cost of renting private rooms in San Francisco Bay Area so cheap?
Replies: 26
Views: 4202

Re: Why is the cost of renting private rooms in San Francisco Bay Area so cheap?

There's a lot of tech companies that offer everything at work -- in order to make you stay at work longer and do more work for free. You can eat, shower, exercise, get your clothes laundered and so on all on the company campus. I bet a lot of single techies who work in this situation probably only r...
by MossySF
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Looking for ways to reduce taxes and keep more of my income]
Replies: 91
Views: 9437

Re: [Looking for ways to reduce taxes and keep more of my income]

HSAs only make sense if the employer is willing to give you more salary (or make your contributions) for taking a higher deductible plan. Or: 2. They reduce your medical premiums enough to make it worthwhile to take the HSA 3. They make an employer contribution to your HSA. Unfortunately, I don't k...