Search found 185 matches

by Rob't
Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should one use REITs
Replies: 48
Views: 4447

Re: Should one use REITs

The paper from Vanguard was https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/icreecr.pdf I note that the original poster initially referred to a "large cap" fund and my reply was to his later mention of total stock market. I worried that as the REITs live mostly in the mid and small cap he might not have a full ma...
by Rob't
Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should one use REITs
Replies: 48
Views: 4447

Re: Should one use REITs

Total stock market includes REITs up to their market weight, so you have REITs in the 3 fund portfolio. Vanguard has a paper (I believe) that notes that since most real estate is privately held, the index funds actually underweight REITs; thus direct ownership of REIT funds might bring you closer to...
by Rob't
Sat Jul 02, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Look at REITs, and a new study; math appendix
Replies: 3
Views: 577

A Look at REITs, and a new study; math appendix

The article provided and the discussion are excellent; thank you Larry and all discussants. I dodn't want to interrupt that excellent thread with a plea to shear me if some ignorance. The following is from the article: Assuming real earnings grow about 2% a year, we would need to multiply the CAPE 1...
by Rob't
Wed May 25, 2016 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 44
Views: 4757

Re: a new look at the size premium

Thank you, Larry.
Interesting article. Thanks for posting and for the response.
Best regards
by Rob't
Wed May 25, 2016 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 44
Views: 4757

Re: a new look at the size premium

Is there confidence that the screens used by DFA are adequate to "control your junk?"
by Rob't
Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Curious Results on Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 4
Views: 521

Re: Curious Results on Portfolio Visualizer

Thanks Livesoft. I always loved that Yogi quote, until it was used to apply to something I was doing and now it scares me to death. I purchased DGS when it first became available, but our plan changed a few years after that and no longer contained a brokerage window, so I switched back to the Vangua...
by Rob't
Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Curious Results on Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 4
Views: 521

Re: Curious Results on Portfolio Visualizer

Thanks Lack_ey. I'm sure you're right about my misreading the regression analysis. I was not aware of the region issue, and did not look at confidence intervals. I just input tickers and read (Lazy, I know). I was hoping Portfolio Visualizer would allow me to remain ignorant of the nuts and bolts of...
by Rob't
Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Curious Results on Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 4
Views: 521

Curious Results on Portfolio Visualizer

DFA Emerging Market Small Cap recently became available to me on company retirement menu. I have been using the DFA Emerging Market Fund and guessed it might be good to split the EM allocation to gather some size loading. I looked on Morningstar and saw a median market cap for the EM fund at 13,134 ...
by Rob't
Sun Nov 22, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The future for TIPS (VIPSX)
Replies: 22
Views: 3762

Re: The future for TIPS (VIPSX)

Thanks, DBR and ogd. I was totally confused. I thought the idea was generation of the real coupon as the income guarantee, a permanent annuity. I get it now. It is a date specific annuity, with a projected expiration date based based on withdrawal schedule, with proceeds being total returns. My conf...
by Rob't
Sun Nov 22, 2015 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The future for TIPS (VIPSX)
Replies: 22
Views: 3762

Re: The future for TIPS (VIPSX)

I like Merton's idea of a virtual TIPS ladder as I am intimidated by the complexity of building, following, then bequeathing a multirung ladder of individual TIPS. But a reliable stream of retirement income seems at risk if events like those applying at Vanguard currently (no dividend payout for VIP...
by Rob't
Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2015 Annual Letter by Scott Burns and Kennon Grose"
Replies: 8
Views: 1580

Re: "2015 Annual Letter by Scott Burns and Kennon Grose"

Or, said more simply, "Thanks for the post, Taylor."
by Rob't
Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2015 Annual Letter by Scott Burns and Kennon Grose"
Replies: 8
Views: 1580

Re: "2015 Annual Letter by Scott Burns and Kennon Grose"

That is not meant to be snark toward a brilliant teacher from whom we have all learned a lot. Dr Bernstein has said himself of tactical allocation that sometimes even doing what seems right is wrong, but as long as you are right most of the time, you win. What I have to learn and keep being reminded...
by Rob't
Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2015 Annual Letter by Scott Burns and Kennon Grose"
Replies: 8
Views: 1580

Re: "2015 Annual Letter by Scott Burns and Kennon Grose"

Speaking of being caught out by the REITS point: Expected REIT Returns? Postby Bill Bernstein » Mon May 06, 2013 9:10 pm Hi all: I very rarely post a new topic, but I do feel compelled to comment on REITs. I’ve seen more than a few posters remark favorably on the high realized returns of REITS, alon...
by Rob't
Sat May 03, 2014 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Re-investing Dividends During Retirement
Replies: 3
Views: 703

Re-investing Dividends During Retirement

In a a recent response on a thread on withdrawing principal from bond funds, pkcrafter said the following: I leaned my withdrawal strategy from Taylor. Withdraw late in the year, Nov or Dec. so withholding time is minimal. I reinvest all divs and interest. If you take them you lose control on withdr...
by Rob't
Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is bond average maturity measured/reported
Replies: 4
Views: 418

Re: How is bond average maturity measured/reported

Jeepers! Thanks ,David. So basically the call provisions of the muni bond then give it adverse properties of lengthening effective maturity while your principle value is getting crushed by increasing interest rates. And the ~1.4 year lengthening of maturity you thought you were accepting for an extr...
by Rob't
Thu Apr 17, 2014 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is bond average maturity measured/reported
Replies: 4
Views: 418

Re: How is bond average maturity measured/reported

Thank you Landy. When one looks at the average maturity of the long term fund, it looks like a trivial step up from the intermediate fund. The difference in yields easily meets the criteria usually put forward for adding term. I was using it in place of the intermediate fund, but it appears to be ho...
by Rob't
Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is bond average maturity measured/reported
Replies: 4
Views: 418

How is bond average maturity measured/reported

The recent thread on whither total bond fund had an interesting comparison of Vanguard reported vs Morningstar reported bond maturities. In looking at other bond funds I was puzzled by this result for Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt: Morningstar: 1 to 3 years 2.89 3 to 5 Years 1.85 5 to 7 Years 4.88 7...
by Rob't
Thu Apr 10, 2014 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is 0.5% too much for iShares High Yield Bonds (HYG)?
Replies: 6
Views: 1222

Re: Is 0.5% too much for iShares High Yield Bonds (HYG)?

You might search for an opinion from Rick Ferri on the site about bond etfs. I believe he does not like them in general because of a structural problem concerning the potential behavior of spreads in times of market stress.
by Rob't
Tue Mar 25, 2014 6:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BBQ Road Trip
Replies: 50
Views: 4782

Re: BBQ Road Trip

The one I'd recommend in Wilson NC is Parkers.
by Rob't
Mon Nov 18, 2013 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs worth the trouble?
Replies: 23
Views: 4795

Re: REITs worth the trouble?

I should note that Malkiel has really gone off the efficient market rails on China, and that Swensen is ill, was (is?) on leave of absence due to cancer. I don't know that either has updated their books in light of the 2008 crisis. Re: Vanguard REIT Index valuation? (Postby abuss368 » Sun May 06, 2...
by Rob't
Wed Nov 13, 2013 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Returns by Antti Ilmanen
Replies: 55
Views: 7766

Re: Expected Returns by Antti Ilmanen

I think he managed money for a small mutual fund company called Norway; not sure what the historical returns were, but I believe the fund is still in operation.
by Rob't
Sun Nov 10, 2013 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's "Philosophical Disagreement" with Eugene Fama
Replies: 87
Views: 7663

Re: John Bogle's "Philosophical Disagreement" with Eugene Fa

I did notice how vehemently Mr. Bogle was opposed to being influenced by Mr. Fama's work. I am wondering if it goes beyond just the EMH philosophy? Guess we will never know, but does not sound like they are good "friends"? I have seen Mr. Bogle numerous times not agree with other opinions...
by Rob't
Sat Sep 21, 2013 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard International Value YTD
Replies: 4
Views: 903

Re: Vanguard International Value YTD

It's a stock pickers market. It is not just that (active) value is doing better; International growth is doing better, too (up 15.67% vs ~ 10.5% for the blend index. Look too at Capital Opportunity, Primecap Core, and Selected Value vs their nearest index competitor. Every now and then things line u...
by Rob't
Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Income Strategy
Replies: 22
Views: 3382

Re: Retirement Income Strategy

The Vanguard personal investors site allows you to compare funds from other fund families to related Vanguard funds. This might be helpful, though be cautious not to look as much at recent returns (your advisor will have been very careful to screen for particularly well performing funds over recent ...
by Rob't
Fri Aug 30, 2013 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Why Wal-Mart Will Never Pay Like Costco" (Bloomberg)
Replies: 21
Views: 2620

Re: "Why Wal-Mart Will Never Pay Like Costco" (Bloomberg)

I enjoyed this; thanks. She had a follow up piece reporting on the fact that a significant fraction of people you see working at Costco are not Costco employees, but contracted labor. They are part time, ~ 11.00/hour, and with no benefits. I guess it's easier to feel good about how you treat your em...
by Rob't
Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman is almost a Boglehead
Replies: 8
Views: 1750

John Hussman is almost a Boglehead

From tomorrow's Market Comment: "Investors adhering to a buy-and-hold strategy, diversified across asset classes, fully recognizing the potential depth of intervening declines, and committed to remaining passive over the course of the market cycle, are encouraged to adhere to that discipline. I...
by Rob't
Wed Jul 24, 2013 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kitces Article on SPIAs using Retirement Plan Assets
Replies: 6
Views: 875

Re: Kitces Article on SPIAs using Retirement Plan Assets

Thank you for posting this. Having just scanned so far, my concerns are two: In one conceptual framework, the inflation adjusted spia is not declining in value with age; the yearly payout still reflects a virtual fixed allocation. ie the $500,000.00 "fixed" in spia is still "worth&quo...
by Rob't
Fri Nov 09, 2012 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FAJ: An Interview with Eugene Fama
Replies: 10
Views: 1314

Re: FAJ: An Interview with Eugene Fama

Thank you. Great interview. It is really special to be able to "listen in" on a conversation between two of the giants of finance.
by Rob't
Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Long-term vs. Interm-term tax exempt
Replies: 14
Views: 2698

Re: Vanguard Long-term vs. Interm-term tax exempt

OOPS! I believe what is going on is that the effective duration as computed by Vanguard includes the probability that the bond will be called. Thus, a 30-year bond issued in 2004 but callable after 10 years may have an effective duration of only two years now because the low interest rates make the ...
by Rob't
Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Long-term vs. Interm-term tax exempt
Replies: 14
Views: 2698

Re: Vanguard Long-term vs. Interm-term tax exempt

Doesn't the long term seem like the better deal. If you have decided to go out 4.9 in duration, for only one more year you gain 0.58%. It is the steepest point on the curve comparing short to limited to intermediate to long, and seems to meet Larry Swedroe's guideline of yield per year of maturity t...
by Rob't
Mon Aug 27, 2012 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short Term Bond Fund vs Prime Money Market
Replies: 30
Views: 6477

Re: Short Term Bond Fund vs Prime Money Market

Glad I wasn't using Short Term Investment Grade as a "cash" account in 2008: S-T Investment-Grade Inv Fund Inception Date 10/29/1982 High High Date Low Low Date $10.81 01/22/2008 $9.57 12/08/2008 You want your rainy day money to be stable, because it could rain on 12/7. Livesoft was dead o...
by Rob't
Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index or active? It's your portfolio return that matters.
Replies: 21
Views: 2912

Re: Index or active? It's your portfolio return that matters

Thanks Rick. I appreciate your analysis. The database you are using is new to me and I believe puts more rigor into the analysis than previously. Analyses I have seen before typically excluded "dead" funds and suggested the over-performance of index over active would have been even more ap...
by Rob't
Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle includes corporate bonds in his portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 10928

Re: Bogle includes corporate bonds in his portfolio

Be it far from me to speak for William Bernstein, but I doubt very much that he would agree with your conclusion regarding junk bonds and their beneficial effects. I agree that on this particular issue you are probably right about Dr Bernstein. But I believe such a stand would be against a previous...
by Rob't
Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle includes corporate bonds in his portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 10928

Re: Bogle includes corporate bonds in his portfolio

Unfortunately, the risk of corporate bonds and their strong correlation with equities show up at the wrong time and do not provide liquidity just when one needs it. There were significant declines in corporates, even in short term ones during the 2008-09 stock market crash. There is nothing stoppin...
by Rob't
Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total bond vs Total Intermediate bond fund
Replies: 19
Views: 5484

Re: Total bond vs Total Intermediate bond fund

Vanguard wrote: Distribution by maturity (% of fund) as of 01/31/2012 Total Bond Mkt Index Adm Under 1 Year 3.5% 1 - 3 Years 23.8% 3 - 5 Years 28.4% 5 - 10 Years 30.1% 10 - 20 Years 4.0% 20 - 30 Years 9.9% Over 30 Years 0.3% Total 100.0% Inter-Term Bond Index Adm Under 1 Year 0.2% 1 - 3 Years 0.2% ...
by Rob't
Thu Jun 14, 2012 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Allocation
Replies: 3
Views: 628

Re: Bond Allocation

With current rates your option three of increasing muni holdings seems to me to make the most sense. Holding Total Bond Index in tax advantages space with a 1.87% SEC yield when one could hold Intermediate Term (or even Long Term) Tax exempt in taxable with a tax equivalent yield of 2.9 to 3.7% seem...
by Rob't
Sun Jun 03, 2012 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into Poverty
Replies: 211
Views: 14162

Re: Rebalancing into Poverty

Cut-Throat is starting to win me over. The view that he proposes that NOT rebalancing into an equity decline is in fact choosing to take that decline disproportionately from the equity side is clear. Where he got me, though was in what the resulting decline does to relative expectations for future r...
by Rob't
Sat Jun 02, 2012 5:08 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: I can't connect to bogleheads.org
Replies: 46
Views: 7315

Re: I can't connect to bogleheads.org

To mingstar/Larry and Alex,

Everything is working great for me now. No problems viewing the site, and sign in was easy as well.
Thank you so much for your efforts.
by Rob't
Sat May 26, 2012 10:42 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: I can't connect to bogleheads.org
Replies: 46
Views: 7315

Re: I can't connect to bogleheads.org

Will try ninjacloak.
Thanks, Toons.
by Rob't
Sat May 26, 2012 10:07 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: I can't connect to bogleheads.org
Replies: 46
Views: 7315

Re: I can't connect to bogleheads.org

I'm locked out also. None of my home computers can log on, though I can still get in from work ( but not much time to read the blog there).
I'll miss you guys (and will try to get back on periodically in hopes the problem is resolved).

Good thing they didn't take out Nisi or Livesoft (yet).
by Rob't
Sun May 13, 2012 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why or why not TIPS
Replies: 11
Views: 2137

Re: Why or why not TIPS

To extend this question to "Why not TIPS now?" , I would add the following: L. Swedroe "Shifting TIPS Allocation:" Real Yield.............% of bonds in TIPS < 1.5%........................ 0% 1.5% – 2%..................... 0 – 25% 2.0% – 2.5%................. 25 – 50% 2.5% – 3.0%....
by Rob't
Mon May 07, 2012 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best book, intro to economics
Replies: 54
Views: 5481

Re: Best book, intro to economics

Rather than a book, a good video course, including a concise treatment of Mankiw, can be found at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVp8UGjECt4
by Rob't
Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My review of Applied Economics by Sowell
Replies: 82
Views: 5260

Re: My review of Applied Economics by Sowell

Thanks for the review, Larry. I have not read the second edition yet, but I do have the first edition and thought it was a terrific book. His explanation of the counter-productive results of such measures as rent control are important in understanding the significance of thinking "beyond stage ...
by Rob't
Mon Oct 03, 2011 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should the Nobel Prize be awarded posthumously?
Replies: 27
Views: 2712

what does this have to do with investing?


If yes wins, then Fischer Black was robbed.
by Rob't
Sun Oct 02, 2011 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keynes, QE2, bubbles
Replies: 14
Views: 3230

Great post, Valuethinker. Thanks.

And thanks to all who have managed to make this a resource sharing thread rather than a politico-economic arguement!

Well put. -- Taylor
by Rob't
Tue Sep 20, 2011 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds best in 401k or ROTH 401k?
Replies: 14
Views: 3333

I think equities will out perform bonds at current valuations so answered the way I did (and in fact hold value, small, REIT, and emerging preferentially in my Roth account). My logic would allow for holding preferentially bonds if your opinion is that bonds will outperform, or for balance between t...
by Rob't
Tue Sep 20, 2011 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds best in 401k or ROTH 401k?
Replies: 14
Views: 3333

As the gains of the Roth account will never be taxed, and those of the 401k will be taxed as regular income, I would think that assets with the highest expected return would go best in the Roth, and lower expected return in the traditional. Thus I would put bonds in the traditional 401k.
by Rob't
Fri Sep 16, 2011 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Indexing Extremists"
Replies: 134
Views: 11898

I would remind you that extremism in the defense of indexing is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of low cost passive investment is no virtue!