Search found 261 matches

by chisey
Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns
Replies: 84
Views: 17144

Re: The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns

My point is that you could have any random walk with multi-annual correlation of average returns, and you could have a similar results. In other words, if stocks have been going up for 10 years, the proportion in equities we collectively hold has increased (A). In other words, if stocks have been g...
by chisey
Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Side (sub) Allocations. @@ What Do You Have? Why? Why Not?
Replies: 36
Views: 2065

Re: Bond Side (sub) Allocations. @@ What Do You Have? Why? Why Not?

Hector wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:18 am
Where do you have this stable value? In employer sponsored retirement plan?
Yeah. It's guaranteed at 3.2% through sometime next year.
by chisey
Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a Smoker
Replies: 118
Views: 6800

Re: Buying a Smoker

So for folks that want to experiment, and who already own a charcoal grill, start by playing around with low temperatures on your grill. Results have been good for me. This. If I had the space and was willing to spend the money I'd probably buy a smoker of some sort. But for now I use my charcoal g...
by chisey
Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Side (sub) Allocations. @@ What Do You Have? Why? Why Not?
Replies: 36
Views: 2065

Re: Bond Side (sub) Allocations. @@ What Do You Have? Why? Why Not?

QUESTIONS: 1. On the "Bond (fixed)" portion of your portfolio, what allocation of funds do you have? 47% Stable Value @ 3.2% 16% TIPS (VAIPX) 37% intermediate treasuries (FUAMX) We also have about 10% of our overall portfolio in emerging market bonds but I don't consider that part of our fixed inco...
by chisey
Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone itching to dabble in crypto?
Replies: 46
Views: 3116

Re: Anyone itching to dabble in crypto?

Not at all, and I'm generally an "itchy" investor who makes frequent tweaks. I consider it pure speculation.
by chisey
Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 28445

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

What's the magic number for retirement savings? $1.7 million, according to a survey from Charles Schwab. How many of here are retired, or thinking of retiring, near this #? Assuming no pension, no mortgages/rents, and excluding main residences. Excluding main residence, that's about what we figure....
by chisey
Thu Jun 27, 2019 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt
Replies: 148
Views: 8614

Re: Dave Ramsey says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt

In my experience, people who don't give to charity before they get rich usually don't give much to charity once they are rich. More money doesn't change you, it just makes you more of what you already are. While that is likely true, it is arguable whether tithing has anything to do with charitable ...
by chisey
Thu Jun 27, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Alice's Adventures in Factorland"
Replies: 209
Views: 10622

Re: "Alice's Adventures in Factorland"

So to say that Small/Value stinks because it trails other stock categories over 5 years is just silly, quite frankly, you ought to know better. The S&P 500 had a few really bad years during the 2000's, should I have concluded that index investing doesn't work? Should I have told people to sell thei...
by chisey
Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt
Replies: 148
Views: 8614

Re: Dave Ramsey says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt

So he should give advice that is not appropriate for his target audience? The problem with audience-targeted advice from people like Dave in the 21st century is that far, far more people than his target audience will see it. This advice was published on Yahoo! Finance and will reach many people for...
by chisey
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendation for light beer.
Replies: 41
Views: 2921

Re: Recommendation for light beer.

Midwest. Do not care so much about calories (BMI 22-33) as limiting liquid carbs which spike sugars, insulin levels and increase risk of type 2 Diabeties. Boulevard RecreationAle (MO) and Southern Tier Swipe Light (PA) may be available near you. There are some phenomenal regional brewers in the mid...
by chisey
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendation for light beer.
Replies: 41
Views: 2921

Re: Recommendation for light beer.

I am trying to keep carbs low in my diet due to slightly elevated blood sugar at last physical. Unfortunately this means avoiding beer which I really enjoy. I’ve tried a few light beers and its feels like I’m drinking seltzer water. Not much into wines. Does anyone here have a brand that has a full...
by chisey
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest
Replies: 31
Views: 1929

Re: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest

Start with X = 30 Y = 30 Z = 40 and tell us what the results are. Then go from there. I think 50/50 on equity side is reasonable for this and look forward to your results. What has been most impressive to me though is the impact SCV has had historically on portfolio performance in withdrawal stage....
by chisey
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendation for light beer.
Replies: 41
Views: 2921

Re: Recommendation for light beer.

barnaclebob wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:51 am
We all need a way to feel superior in some way right?
Pfft. I don't feel superior. I just feel that my beer is superior. :beer

Seriously, it is hard to go from drinking beers with more flavor to drinking light beers. It sounds like that's what OP is trying to do, and I wish him luck.
by chisey
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendation for light beer.
Replies: 41
Views: 2921

Re: Recommendation for light beer.

Life is too short to drink light beer. You could try liquor instead-- zero carbs.
by chisey
Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dental/Vision Insurance for Baby
Replies: 33
Views: 1560

Re: Dental/Vision Insurance for Baby

I won't comment on the need to get insurance, especially at what it would cost you, but consider that many advise both an eye exam and a dental checkup before a child's first birthday, even if there aren't any issues that are apparent to you. And the eye exam might be free if there's a participating...
by chisey
Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 9878

Re: The Case Against ETFs

schooner wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:59 pm
Definitely my last post on Bogleheads, have a great weekend y'all :-)
:beer
by chisey
Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 9878

Re: The Case Against ETFs

About 40% and and growing: "Institutional investors increased their ownership of US exchange traded funds by $213bn in 2016 to $1.4tn, accounting for 59 per cent of all ETF assets, according to analysis from Deutsche Bank. Despite growing by the amount of assets, institutional investors now make up...
by chisey
Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 9878

Re: The Case Against ETFs

True, but you would not be following your AA anymore. Plus, ordinary investors are putting away smaller amounts through DCA. If you’re investing $500 every paycheck, that’s real drag, with opportunity costs compounded over decades. You are seriously overstating how much drag results from this issue...
by chisey
Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 9878

Re: The Case Against ETFs

True, but you would not be following your AA anymore. Plus, ordinary investors are putting away smaller amounts through DCA. If you’re investing $500 every paycheck, that’s real drag, with opportunity costs compounded over decades. You are seriously overstating how much drag results from this issue...
by chisey
Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 259666

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

GW’s objection raises the question: what is it reasonable to expect ex-ante? I submit the following: 1. That the equity premium will persist. 2. That the term premium will persist. 3. That flight to safety will persist. These are risk-based premia that comprise the fundamental drivers of the financ...
by chisey
Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Re-Death of Value, or Deja Vu All Over
Replies: 61
Views: 6179

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Re-Death of Value, or Deja Vu All Over

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:10 am
Except, this one seems to inlude Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook. Not sure why.
None of them are in the tech sector. Amazon is Consumer Discretionary, and Alphabet and Facebook are Communication Services.
by chisey
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you regret taking a pay cut for quality of life?
Replies: 68
Views: 7895

Re: Do you regret taking a pay cut for quality of life?

I've done it three times: -15%, -20%, and -25%. Two were unhealthy workplaces and the other was to be closer to family. I have no regrets and it hasn't put me off track on my retirement goals (though I'd be much closer without the moves, assuming I kept my sanity). After every change my salary event...
by chisey
Fri May 24, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 8728

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

In Portfolio Visualizer, you can check "logarithmic scale". Although I sort of know how it works for earthquakes, I am unsure what it means here. So I looked up the definition: A logarithmic scale is a nonlinear scale used for a large range of positive multiples of some quantity. ... It is based on...
by chisey
Tue May 21, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETFs, ranked by diversification benefit
Replies: 66
Views: 4796

Re: Vanguard ETFs, ranked by diversification benefit

Plus using the past to draw conclusions about LT bonds is highly suspect because we are in an environment where there is virtually 0 chance that interest rates will drop as far as they have over the past 35 years. I don't see people signing up for a -6% LT bond anytime soon. I think that's an impor...
by chisey
Tue May 21, 2019 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 5896

Re: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds

I don't find your answer convincing. While there is as yet no proof, there is surely enough factual evidence to make it a highly plausible hypothesis. If ever a system could be developed to blow bubbles it would be one in which hundreds of millions of people are advised by a huge, privately run fin...
by chisey
Mon May 20, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Milorganite, Purely Organic or Ringer Lawn Restore?
Replies: 5
Views: 472

Re: Milorganite, Purely Organic or Ringer Lawn Restore?

I live In Los Angeles Area along the coast. I cannot decide which of the above organic fertilizer for my lawn. I don't care about the cost but am looking for one that would be safe for my 2 dachshunds . I have seen many YouTube on Milorganite but am concern that my dogs may want to eat it due to th...
by chisey
Mon May 06, 2019 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lawn experts? - roots showing up above ground
Replies: 9
Views: 1338

Re: Lawn experts? - roots showing up above ground

If you care about the health of the tree, then your best bet would be to mulch under the tree instead of having grass there anyway. Don't try to bury them in soil, which may cause rot. If there's no grass under there, then mowing is not an issue-- nor is grass thinning due to shade, or grass and the...
by chisey
Thu May 02, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Babymoon?
Replies: 36
Views: 3095

Re: Babymoon?

she will likely be in her first or second trimester for the trip - As others have said, don't count on that! But plan your trip either way. It'll either be a great celebratory trip, or a fun 10 days of eating, drinking, and being-- um-- "merry" while you keep trying. We didn't plan it that way, but...
by chisey
Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Caps vs Large Caps divergence
Replies: 23
Views: 3278

Re: Small Caps vs Large Caps divergence

Historically, from 1926 through 2014 the correlation between small-caps and large-caps was 0.79, i.e. 79%. A correlation of 0.79 isn't equivalent to 79%. That's not how r is interpreted. You'd have to square it to get that kind of interpretation, i.e.: r^2 = 0.79*0.79=.6241 => 62.41% of the variati...
by chisey
Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1409
Views: 137514

Re: "S&P 500 Index closes at record high"

What I find great about "staying the course" is that I always have a reason to be happy with the market. When it's at record highs I celebrate my holdings value, when it's at a low, like on Xmas Eve, I celebrate my purchases buying more than they would have for months. This is why I'm enjoying my s...
by chisey
Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the Subaru Outback a safe car?
Replies: 9
Views: 1305

Re: Is the Subaru Outback a safe car?

As said above, they base this entirely on driver fatality rate with a suspect source. From their wording, my guess is for cars that aren't explicitly covered in IIHS studies (anything post-2015, for example) they are using nothing but the WEIGHT of the vehicle relative to its class. Outbacks weigh l...
by chisey
Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often do you check up on your investments?
Replies: 35
Views: 2358

Re: How often do you check up on your investments?

I check every day, sometimes multiple times. I made a major portfolio overhaul over the past year and a half, so partly I'm looking to see how the components behave relative to one another. The more comfortable I am with those movements, the less likely I am to do any further tinkering.
by chisey
Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2412
Views: 434446

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

We are +7.9% YTD per the benchmark ETF basket I monitor on Morningstar.

48% stocks. We're still getting punished for being light on US large caps.
by chisey
Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3 Fund Portfolio Bond Question
Replies: 9
Views: 716

Re: 3 Fund Portfolio Bond Question

HI all, Just switched to a 3 fund portfolio and am trying to clear up something I have been wondering about. I currently have about 185k in a 3 fund porftolio arranged as follows: 70% Domestic 20% International 10% Bonds (so about $18,500). I also have 25K in a savings account. Should I count that ...
by chisey
Tue Apr 09, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Much Do You Pay For Haircut?
Replies: 115
Views: 6891

Re: How Much Do You Pay For Haircut?

$0. i bought a really nice clipper about 10 years ago and have cut my own hair since. +1, for at least 15 years now. I am on my third set of clippers but have spent well under $100 total on them. It takes me about 20 minutes and if I paid for it I wouldn't really have them cut it any differently. I...
by chisey
Mon Apr 08, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "dividend preference anomaly"
Replies: 183
Views: 8937

Re: The "dividend preference anomaly"

Some have a viewpoint that selling shares is the same as receiving a dividend. My point is for that statement to be true the share price would need to increase to compensate for the change in the number of shares. Or the price of the dividend stock would need to decrease, which is exactly what happ...
by chisey
Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Benefits Of International Diversification
Replies: 86
Views: 7153

Re: Larry Swedroe: Benefits Of International Diversification

I keep pounding the drum on diversification is that it is so poorly understood by many investors, even sophisticated ones, and these misunderstandings can lead to several challenges. I just want to thank you for this fantastic post. It really hits the mark in describing the benefits of diversificat...
by chisey
Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: should I add emerging market gov bonds to portfolio?
Replies: 13
Views: 897

Re: should I add emerging market gov bonds to portfolio?

QUESTION, should I stick with the current portfolio OR should I sell some BND and use the money to buy more VWOB......perhaps getting VWOB up to 4%-15% of total portfolio which will get BND below 40% of total portfolio?? I bought VWOB to give me more dividend AND to further diversify the portfolio....
by chisey
Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 210
Views: 11567

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

I am 50/50, and have been at that ratio for years. I overweight emerging markets because they have lower correlation with the rest of my portfolio. +1 50 US/25 Developed (mostly small)/25 EM +1, though half of our EM is EM bonds. I don't allocate them as bonds since they are quite volatile. So I gu...
by chisey
Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Help, American Funds or nothing
Replies: 16
Views: 883

Re: 401K Help, American Funds or nothing

My wife's 401k basically has the R2 version of those same options. The way I always look at choices like this is not to look at the absolute ER, but how bad the ER is relative to other options in that same market segment. That allows me to get my overall portfolio ER as low as possible. I tilt small...
by chisey
Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 259666

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I think the most likely explanation that is supported by the data is this: The correlation between LTT and stocks is zero, EXCEPT when stocks are going down, LTT usually goes up due to the "flight to safety" effect and the "Fed will cut rates due to impending recession" effect. This dynamic would p...
by chisey
Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve = Inverted
Replies: 58
Views: 6616

Re: Yield Curve = Inverted

Those who believe that inverted yield curves are good predictors of recessions, and that what we are seeing now already qualifies as an inverted yield curve... This is an inversion of part of the curve, yes. But it's not the one that's most accepted as a recession signal-- that would be a 10-2 inve...
by chisey
Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 110662

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I don't see different haystacks, I see the total market haystack that covers the global equities asset class, weighted by market cap. To me that is the basic philosophy at play here. I agree, and I think calling international a different haystack entirely is much more of a justification for already...
by chisey
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions
Replies: 29
Views: 1961

Re: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions

Park wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:53 am
Dave, thanks for your posts. I hope you continue with your posts.
+1. I don't make it a habit of visiting etf.com for the articles, so I'd miss some interesting stuff from Larry if Dave didn't share it.
by chisey
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 110662

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Human beings have a strong innate tendency to obey others whom they perceive to be authorities. Perhaps the most famous example of this was Stanley Milgram's obedience study back in 1963. He found that about 65% of ordinary Americans would kill someone because a perceived authority told them to do ...
by chisey
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 11204

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Steve, I would just caution you that brilliant people can be overconfident in their ability to understand things. Sornette sounds like the real deal in terms of intelligence and credentials and I have no intention of taking anything away from him on that. But predictions of market mania are a more c...
by chisey
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FreeTaxUSA.com now has 2018 Return available.
Replies: 41
Views: 5088

Re: FreeTaxUSA.com now has 2018 Return available.

Do you all use FreeTaxUsa to actually file your return, or just do do tax planning and preparation? I hadn't heard of it but the reviews look good.
by chisey
Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable value vs. bonds: the yield/volatility tradeoff
Replies: 26
Views: 1371

Re: Stable value vs. bonds: the yield/volatility tradeoff

Aren't Stable Value Funds just an annuity from an insurance company? So you'd have non-diversified counterparty risk with a financial institution. Seems like you're taking on credit risk from the insurance company, so it would need to yield more than Treasuries to make up for that. What do the term...
by chisey
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable value vs. bonds: the yield/volatility tradeoff
Replies: 26
Views: 1371

Re: Stable value vs. bonds: the yield/volatility tradeoff

potentially switching to the other if its yield rises above that of the other. This is the kind of answer I'm looking for, and it's the simplest one. This has been my thinking-- to keep as much in SVF as I can and only to shift away from it if treasury yields rise above it. It's simple and easy. Bu...
by chisey
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable value vs. bonds: the yield/volatility tradeoff
Replies: 26
Views: 1371

Re: Stable value vs. bonds: the yield/volatility tradeoff

If by “trivial” you mean “obvious”, then I think there is indeed an implicit assumption embedded there. One thing you can pretty much always count on us that the riskier asset can be expected to have a higher total return. If it ever appears otherwise you can be sure that you are misestimating eith...