Search found 179 matches

by beammeupscotty
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Waiting for the Market to Crash is a Terrible Strategy"
Replies: 27
Views: 4952

Re: "Waiting for the Market to Crash is a Terrible Strategy"

...historically, once prospective returns have dropped below about 7.5%, investors could have adopted what I've called a "Rip van Winkle" strategy: just going to sleep until stocks dropped by at least 30% or moved back to prospective returns above 10% - a strategy that would have historically outpe...
by beammeupscotty
Thu May 18, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those with $500k-$1m in investments...
Replies: 138
Views: 14396

Re: For those with $500k-$1m in investments...

33 / 67. Adding to taxable when I can.
by beammeupscotty
Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 7111

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

Or the essential bear market from 1966-1980? Pretty decent "bear" market. The CAGR of the S&P 500 from January 1, 1966 to December 31, 1980 was over 6%. I could live with that over the next 15 years. Inflation was quite high then, so in real terms it was a 50% loss. Spread out over 15...
by beammeupscotty
Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is anything 'cheap' out there?
Replies: 82
Views: 14627

Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Dryships (symbol: DRYS) 52week low ($1.80). was ~$5 last year. ~$1B in debt but owns ~$1.1B in deep sea oil rig drilling substidary in my after tax acct: sold $50k in S&P500 in a few days ago (before todays 2% drop) and bought this today. wish me luck. or It's a lot cheaper today (down 15%). wh...
by beammeupscotty
Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 24479

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Hi all, I seems you are not reading the data right. One said July 2010 cape said 4% returns but it has been 14. Actually, if you look at the data I keep posting - the data forecasts the NEXT 10 year AVERAGE annual return. The model in July 2010 showed any new money invested then would return somewh...
by beammeupscotty
Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An index isn't an index isn't an index...
Replies: 23
Views: 2919

Re: An index isn't an index isn't an index...

The S&P 600 is a superior index for small caps, mainly because of the earnings requirement (four consecutive quarters of positive earnings) which screened out a lot of internet startups trading at huge valuations with no profits around 2000, just before they cratered and cost investors tons of ...
by beammeupscotty
Mon Jan 16, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $600,000. Now what?
Replies: 55
Views: 11322

Re: $600,000. Now what?

After logging into my brokerage (which i actually use Vanguard for), the numbers showed: 16% return from last 5 years and 28.5% return from the last year. This has mostly come from finding NRZ, and OCN. They have both nearly doubled (NRZ including dividend) over the last year. I still believe NRZ w...
by beammeupscotty
Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1987 stlye crash on the way?
Replies: 65
Views: 8814

Re: 1987 stlye crash on the way?

The article is 3 1/2 years old and the market is up 45% since then.
by beammeupscotty
Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sound Mind Investing
Replies: 11
Views: 2019

Re: Sound Mind Investing

I was going to say that Yahoo shows price only, while Morningstar is total return (including dividends), but the difference in the charts suggests something else.

At any rate, the expense ratio alone should be enough to scare almost anyone away from this fund.
by beammeupscotty
Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sound Mind Investing
Replies: 11
Views: 2019

Re: Sound Mind Investing

For what it is worth, the ETF SMIFX (Sound Mind Investing) which is run by the creators of Sound Mind Investing, has expenses of 2.03%, has over 200% turnover, and has returned 4% total (not annually) over the past decade. The S&P 500, by comparison, has returned over 67% over the same time per...
by beammeupscotty
Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy, sell or hold Caterpillar?
Replies: 29
Views: 3403

Re: Buy, sell or hold Caterpillar?

You mean you've been on this board for over 6 years and are finally getting around to thinking about this? If you had sold Caterpillar and bought Vanguard Total Stock Market Index on the day you joined, your $490K of CAT would instead be worth $631K (with a lot less volatility). Hmmmm... http://i63....
by beammeupscotty
Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Only buying during crashes - return?
Replies: 34
Views: 3746

Re: Only buying during crashes - return?

It is a bad plan. Why? Well let us just take 2010 onwards. When did the market crash 20% within a 30 day period? I don't think it ever did. So you would be still holding on to 6-7 years of contributions sitting in cash. Your 2010-2012 contributions in particular would have done very well if you had...
by beammeupscotty
Wed Jun 08, 2016 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point do we market time?
Replies: 87
Views: 7999

Re: At what point do we market time?

There are low volatility stock funds that could withstand a market crash pretty handily, so why not substitute those? Reminds me of late 1999 when I correctly predicted that AMZN would peak, sold it all and put it into "safe" GE, which went on to lose about as much as AMZN did. There's no...
by beammeupscotty
Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx
Replies: 48
Views: 14428

Re: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx

They're a much better buy now, so yes, too good to be true.

Image
by beammeupscotty
Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard emerging markets TLH question
Replies: 9
Views: 1147

Re: Vanguard emerging markets TLH question

If I do that, the Dec. qualified dividends for the newly purchased fund won't qualify since it will be held less than 60 days, and it will also add one more taxable event to report when switching back. I think I'll stick with my original plan and if/when Emerging markets and/or bond rates rise subst...
by beammeupscotty
Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard emerging markets TLH question
Replies: 9
Views: 1147

Re: Vanguard emerging markets TLH question

So maybe it's better to sell Emerging in taxable, buy Select in tax deferred, then sell after 30 days and buy the index again in taxable? Or just sell and buy again after 30 days?
by beammeupscotty
Sun Nov 29, 2015 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard emerging markets TLH question
Replies: 9
Views: 1147

Vanguard emerging markets TLH question

I own the Vanguard Emerging Markets stock index fund in taxable. I have a loss of around $9,000 in it that I would like to tax lost harvest. I only have a Vanguard mutual fund account (no brokerage account), so I only have Vanguard funds to choose from for a TLH pair. I also have a NWFCU 3% add-on c...
by beammeupscotty
Mon Oct 19, 2015 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: White Coat Investor critiques a David Ramsey rant on Bogle
Replies: 24
Views: 6930

Re: White Coat Investor critiques a David Ramsey rant on Bogle

I have had a lot of appreciation for the role Ramsey plays in pop culture regarding money. But when he ranted on Bogle he crossed a line with me. He made a statement about Bogle's advice being "dangerous" because it causes analysis paralysis, which was just too much to take. Bogle's mantr...
by beammeupscotty
Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is anything 'cheap' out there?
Replies: 82
Views: 14627

Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Dryships (symbol: DRYS) 52week low ($1.80). was ~$5 last year. ~$1B in debt but owns ~$1.1B in deep sea oil rig drilling substidary in my after tax acct: sold $50k in S&P500 in a few days ago (before todays 2% drop) and bought this today. wish me luck. or It's a lot cheaper today (down 15%). wh...
by beammeupscotty
Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can anyone help me understand China
Replies: 31
Views: 4823

Re: Can anyone help me understand China

I keep thinking of the 60 Minutes piece a year or two ago where Leslie S. walked through entire cities with freeways and skyscrapers and shopping malls with no one living in them (ghost cities in other words). Citizens bought real estate and speculated. It was appalling. You could see then that thi...
by beammeupscotty
Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3959
Views: 1051826

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Bracket wrote:Wow IJS is roaring back up. (Up 10% since I bought) I guess I should have bought more.


Did it really briefly trade at $78.41? Wow. Good catch.

Image
by beammeupscotty
Thu Aug 13, 2015 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 12yo son's investing class at school driving me nuts
Replies: 46
Views: 9456

Re: 12yo son's investing class at school driving me nuts

I just checked GMCR ticker today and ran the 1m, 6m, 1y, 3y, etc. returns. I'm too embarrassed to talk to him about it right now. I'm thinking I'll pull up the ticker in 5-10 years, call him at whatever university or first job he's at, and prove my point then. Good idea, right? Well, it's not looki...
by beammeupscotty
Wed Jun 03, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term price trend for the S&P 500 - ouch!
Replies: 29
Views: 5869

Re: Long term price trend for the S&P 500 - ouch!

Browser wrote:Chart from Doug Short illustrating the movement of the S&P500 around the long-term trendline. The right side kinda looks like the Alps compared to the rest of it. Looks like we might be ready for a little serious Mean Regression one of these fine days?

Maybe, maybe not.
http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2 ... nt-matter/
by beammeupscotty
Mon May 11, 2015 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International - Who really is at 40%
Replies: 93
Views: 10460

Re: International - Who really is at 40%

I'm at 55% foreign equities.
by beammeupscotty
Sat Mar 14, 2015 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Funds beats the market 97% of the time?
Replies: 50
Views: 8000

Re: American Funds beats the market 97% of the time?

Some people need the services of an advisor. And most advisors don't charge both a front end load and an AUM. Usually either/or. You are probably better paying a front end load than a 1% AUM every year. Any advisor that will sell you American funds is one to avoid. You are definitely much better of...
by beammeupscotty
Sat Mar 14, 2015 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Funds beats the market 97% of the time?
Replies: 50
Views: 8000

Re: American Funds beats the market 97% of the time?

I think they were somewhat selective in picking their index benchmarks so that they would cast their funds in the best possible light. Rather than using the S&P 500, if they had used a Midcap Index, which probably better matches the overall cap weighting of American's funds, the results would h...
by beammeupscotty
Thu Mar 12, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which stocks in Wellesley and Wellington over time?
Replies: 2
Views: 832

Re: Which stocks in Wellesley and Wellington over time?

Current allocations are easy to view on Vanguard's web site, historical would be more difficult. From the article: "Recently, Ross Kerber at Reuters picked up on the stunning long-term success of the Voya Corporate Leaders Trust...which holds a fixed portfolio of 22 blue-chip companies, has, fo...
by beammeupscotty
Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - remove old funds associated with account
Replies: 11
Views: 2828

Re: Vanguard - remove old funds associated with account

Unfortunately when I do this my old account still appears on the main screen. It doesn't appear when I click "balances and holdings" but it does appear on the main page. I use to have a taxable account but now I only have my Roth IRA. I wish Vanguard would clean this up. On the customize ...
by beammeupscotty
Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - remove old funds associated with account
Replies: 11
Views: 2828

Re: Vanguard - remove old funds associated with account

On the Balances & Holdings page, click on Customize this page, check Hide zero balance and click Save.
by beammeupscotty
Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman is almost a Boglehead
Replies: 8
Views: 1730

Re: John Hussman is almost a Boglehead

I happen to catch a recent article by Hussman, and then it led me to look at his performance since inception. Below is the link from his website, which claims 3.03% per year. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/pdf/hsgperf.pdf But this doesn't seem to jive with the fact that the current price of his fund, ...
by beammeupscotty
Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does securities lending matter more than expense ratios?
Replies: 29
Views: 2743

Re: Does securities lending matter more than expense ratios?

While some may consider securities lending as "harmless", I consider it as adding risk to your index fund. If I want more risk I will invest in more equities. Luckily we haven't seen major defaults in securities lending, but that doesn't mean it couldn't happen. We never thought a Money M...
by beammeupscotty
Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does securities lending matter more than expense ratios?
Replies: 29
Views: 2743

Re: Does securities lending matter more than expense ratios?

The income from securities lending for Vanguard funds is impressive. For instance, taking brokerage fees (available in the Statement of Additional Information ) and securities lending income (available in the annual report) into account, I calculate the weighted ER of my portfolio to be 0.085% vs. 0...
by beammeupscotty
Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBTLX vs. BND
Replies: 6
Views: 1396

Re: VBTLX vs. BND

Image

https://tinyurl.com/o8arpy7

The day-to-day difference has to do with market price vs. NAV (premium/discount) of the ETF (the mutual fund is always at NAV).

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... IntExt=INT
by beammeupscotty
Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in International funds? It's a mystery
Replies: 121
Views: 13952

Re: Why invest in International funds? It's a mystery

Peculiar_Investor wrote:
pascalwager wrote:I like Gene Fama's simple observation that you don't need an int'l AA because the US market is itself adequately diversified.

Citation please.

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0#p2338941
by beammeupscotty
Sat Jan 17, 2015 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting spreadsheet simba
Replies: 9
Views: 1602

Re: Backtesting spreadsheet simba

Hatch Batten wrote:One fund, VDMIX, closed last year.

It was merged with VTMGX (which had the same benchmark).
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insigh ... t-04042014
by beammeupscotty
Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Is "Deflation" A Bad Thing??? How To Prepare/Profit?
Replies: 87
Views: 8423

Re: Why Is "Deflation" A Bad Thing??? How To Prepare/Profit

toto238 wrote:Can you point out where Nisiprius wrote about the Wizard of Oz and bimetallism? I had a college professor who actually wrote a book on this topic. I'd like to show him that he's not the only one who cares about this topic.

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 94#p317994

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political ... zard_of_Oz
by beammeupscotty
Sat Dec 27, 2014 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best S&P Index Dividend Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 2020

Re: Best S&P Index Dividend Fund

Why, when you can buy the S&P index with an expense ratio 50% lower than VYM and 88% lower than SDOG?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2093953 ... agic-pants
by beammeupscotty
Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turnover Expense impact on Expense Ratio
Replies: 22
Views: 1449

Re: Turnover Expense impact on Expense Ratio

This appears to be another area where index funds have a big advantage. I was recently looking more closely into Vanguard International Explorer vs. Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index. Not only does the active fund have a higher expense ratio (0.36% vs. 0.20% for the ETF), but the brokera...
by beammeupscotty
Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 82
Views: 14314

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

If I had a nickel for every Boglehead forum post advocating market timing, I'd be a rich man, but not so much if I had heeded their predictions. Here are just a few I saved over the last few years to remind me of the futility of timing the market. My advice would be to choose an asset allocation tha...
by beammeupscotty
Wed Nov 19, 2014 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Online ETF graphs that show growth minus fees (expns ratio)?
Replies: 14
Views: 1725

Re: Online ETF graphs that show growth minus fees (expns rat

Debaser wrote:In other words, just stick with index funds?

Definitely, unless you enjoy contributing to the expensive fund managers' retirement accounts in addition to your own.
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehea ... _costs_low
by beammeupscotty
Wed Nov 12, 2014 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield from 60/40 stocks/bond
Replies: 16
Views: 2015

Re: Dividend yield from 60/40 stocks/bond

Around 2%, but you should be considering total return rather than just dividend yield.
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s352.pdf