Search found 241 matches

by checkyourmath
Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a Car - TSLA OR Honda
Replies: 56
Views: 5014

Re: Buying a Car - TSLA OR Honda

Deja vu I had a friend that bought a model S in 2012 instead of just buying Tesla stock. If he would have bought the stock he would have 9,409,000 dollars. You might regret buying a Tesla knowing you would have a few million dollars if you just bought the stock instead.
by checkyourmath
Wed Jan 20, 2021 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Signs of Bubble logic - greed overcoming fear
Replies: 116
Views: 6703

Re: Signs of Bubble logic - greed overcoming fear

Awesome job! You were off on your Tesla production numbers but otherwise great start. Mortgage refinance percentages, mortgage forbearance rates and cash out refinances. Get that cheaper mortgage but if you can't afford it just go into forbearance. Rent forbearance is even worse. Cash is trash. Savi...
by checkyourmath
Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Bubble
Replies: 45
Views: 4046

Re: Investing in a Bubble

That may be true, but what percentage of those poor fools would have left things alone that entire time? I’m neither poor or a fool but I think if I’d done that I would have had an exceedingly hard time leaving the investments untouched. That’s the thing about all of this bubble talk. Many investor...
by checkyourmath
Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young investors: don’t take unnecessary risk with aggressive and concentrated allocations
Replies: 205
Views: 13388

Re: Young investors: don’t take unnecessary risk with aggressive and concentrated allocations

So are interest rates going negative or positive? It will help me maintain my cash diversification. Where is Volcker when you need him! I don't see an interest rate hike happening anytime soon which is great news for bond holders. I kind of feel bad for savers when we end up with negative interest r...
by checkyourmath
Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where would you tell a 20 yo to invest 5000$
Replies: 42
Views: 3081

Re: Where would you tell a 20 yo to invest 5000$

Make sure he gets Tesla in the SPY. Easy money! If you own the index you should sell because it is overvalued but for younger generations it is a buying opportunity.
by checkyourmath
Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO
Replies: 146
Views: 14891

Re: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO

What was the market cap at the peak of the dotcom bubble? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know the breaking of human nature. The stock market returns 7 percent annually so do bubbles. We are right on pace from the peak of the dotcom bubble to repeat our past joy. The higher they climb the hard...
by checkyourmath
Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12178
Views: 941446

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Lol...of all threads, this thread is definitely not one to take seriously. He posts confidently in other threads too, and even starts threads with confident predictions... that he obviously doesn't believe himself. My conjecture is that he doesn't believe in the hyperbole...its not fact but opinion...
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of 70s style inflation
Replies: 112
Views: 8647

Re: Likelihood of 70s style inflation

Inflation is like the mythical unicorn. The Fed is ready to let this run wild but no one has an idea of the time frame involved. In the digital age where most people don't have the patience to watch more than a 15 second tik tok video I highly doubt they truly intent to run things hot at like 2.999%...
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 16, 2021 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 194
Views: 9754

Re: On what are you most bullish?

Increased Inter-generational wealth transfer Those currently in their 90s and 80s did not have much opportunity to invest in the various retirement plans that are now available since many started up near the end of their working years. Those currently in their 70s and 60s often had this opportunity...
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of 70s style inflation
Replies: 112
Views: 8647

Re: Likelihood of 70s style inflation

I think Gundlach did a good job with discussion this recently. We will see 3 percent inflation by June of 2021 but that will probably only last a couple months. There is no true growth here.
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 194
Views: 9754

Re: On what are you most bullish?

Corn the rest of the commodity market is swamped with big money and machines.
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12178
Views: 941446

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I also don't appreciate comments of a market top. They are impossible to predict. I am just glad the 10 year is starting to soar. We need a little inflation with a touch of stimulus to make things just right.
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 16, 2021 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young investors: don’t take unnecessary risk with aggressive and concentrated allocations
Replies: 205
Views: 13388

Re: Young investors: don’t damage long term returns with aggressive and concentrated allocations

Lol hey young folks buy my stock I am about to sell. You will easily make your money back as long as the market has some form of intervention to sustain these prices. No worries! We built this sand castle no amount of diversification can change that.
by checkyourmath
Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds are too risky
Replies: 27
Views: 2452

Re: Why bonds are too risky

Bonds are better than cash especially with double J in charge. Janet and Jay are probably reassess summertime this summer. I never imagined 3 percent inflation in my life. The last week has been extremely interesting. At least the corn market is hot!
by checkyourmath
Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index-Fund Trillions Are Distorting Prices in the S&P 500
Replies: 8
Views: 1421

Re: Index-Fund Trillions Are Distorting Prices in the S&P 500

I think people are doing that with the short interest index. The average short interest index is at record highs, so someone is profiting from all of this.
by checkyourmath
Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for stats: Average/Median age when $1M networth (household) is attained?
Replies: 63
Views: 7626

Re: Looking for stats: Average/Median age when $1M networth (household) is attained?

People forget that money doubles every 5 years from the stock market. It isn't that hard! The people that don't owe stocks just miss out. My guess is most millennials will be worth a $1M by their early 40s once things pick up if you are looking for a goal.
by checkyourmath
Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economy sluggish? I don't understand
Replies: 95
Views: 7437

Re: Economy sluggish? I don't understand

RenTech was down about 20 percent in 2020 while your average buy and hold investor was up 15 percent. Imagine beating Lebron James in a pickup game one on one. I think RenTech usually averages close to 40 percent returns with one of the smartest phd departments in the world and with all of them unde...
by checkyourmath
Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What might cause a market correction ( 15-20% ) again
Replies: 105
Views: 8047

Re: What might cause a market correction ( 15-20% ) again

People forget that companies are more ethical now and unemployment numbers don't matter. Enron and Lehman Brothers and AIG and Worldcom are a thing of the past. Tesla is the standard for innovation I just hope the rest of the companies can follow suit.
by checkyourmath
Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Already large home but can we afford this renovation?
Replies: 29
Views: 1882

Re: Already large home but can we afford this renovation?

Most renovations make their money back almost instantly. You should do it.
by checkyourmath
Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put my US bond allocation
Replies: 4
Views: 487

Re: Where to put my US bond allocation

Don't fight the Fed. Throw the bond market in the trash. They used to take the punchbowl away now they just add more booze.
by checkyourmath
Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Park 300k
Replies: 15
Views: 1464

Re: Park 300k

Puts or calls on leverage etfs seems like the most stable option here. Please keep us updated on how that goes!
by checkyourmath
Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real estate vs stocks (sp500) , this convinced me to just buy and hold
Replies: 43
Views: 3878

Re: Real estate vs stocks (sp500) , this convinced me to just buy and hold

Super awesome topic! You are 100% correct even with cherry picked numbers. The idea of housing as an investment is a completely generational ideology. The housing market is like the loch ness monster in terms of technology adoption. The transaction cost is still so high that it is essentially built ...
by checkyourmath
Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I replace bonds with Dividen stock mutual fund
Replies: 20
Views: 1744

Re: Can I replace bonds with Dividen stock mutual fund

Everyone else is doing it! Bonds are like the plague. If we get any type of inflation they essentially worthless. The Federal Reserve is closing in on 10 trillion on the balance sheet when yields rise prices are going to plummet. We have been on a bond bull run for about 40 years with no where to go...
by checkyourmath
Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new and bigger irrational exuberance
Replies: 134
Views: 10153

Re: The new and bigger irrational exuberance

For anyone that thinks we are the next Japan go check the BOJ's balance sheet versus the Nikkei's market cap. The Fed can afford the land of billionaires. We can all pretend though!
by checkyourmath
Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you use for inflation? [for retirement planning]
Replies: 54
Views: 4022

Re: What do you use for inflation?

If RetireJoe is using 3 you should probably use 4. Technology doesn't deflated anything and the change in the money supply is currently reflected that is why everything has become so much more expensive. I highly recommend following DXY it is much more fun to think about human behavior from macro le...
by checkyourmath
Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla [car] purchase any significant downside?
Replies: 150
Views: 9042

Re: Tesla [car] purchase any significant downside?

I think the biggest downside is having a fraction of the parts to maintain. You are going to miss oil changes and filling up at the gas station. I actually wish phones were gas powered.
by checkyourmath
Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new and bigger irrational exuberance
Replies: 134
Views: 10153

Re: The new and bigger irrational exuberance

A huge difference between now and the dot con bubble is 71 million people weren't looking to retire in 2000.
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Family Equity Arbitrage
Replies: 9
Views: 673

Re: Family Equity Arbitrage

Bad idea you are essentially making them taking your level of risk. How about you help them get to 70 without taking social security if you wanted to help out them and yourself in the end?
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much money does a 30 year old need to retire?
Replies: 60
Views: 6167

Re: How much money does a 30 year old need to retire?

Not a lot of money as long as market goes up 10-15 percent per year. 1-2 percent raises aren't worth your time at a job. As long as the average investor is able to control about 20-30 percent of the market everything will be fine. One of the keys to FIRE is dividend income because it doesn't ever ch...
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 364
Views: 33428

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

I can't wait for Tesla to become the largest company in the world so my 60/40 DCA friends can get a taste of the monster they created. Buy high then make 22 year olds with 60k in student loans buy higher! Never sell ever. Call me when DXYs in the 60s. What is the highest PE ratio of all time?
by checkyourmath
Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the "Quit when you won the game" portfolio?
Replies: 177
Views: 18160

Re: What is the "Quit when you won the game" portfolio?

I am still 100 percent cash at 38. I feel horrible everyday. I just figured out our 2020 income which was 210k and the only reason I am stating that is because we can't afford a house. If you won the game you should call your other fixed income folks and ask them how they feel about their future. Ma...
by checkyourmath
Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO
Replies: 146
Views: 14891

Re: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO

Total garbage Jeremy still hasn't figured it out after 50 years in the industry. The total asset cap is probably around 100 trillion. The Fed is using a few trillion to selectively inflate debt from the system, which is why we have inflation. We are at the beginning of a secular bull run not a bubbl...
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Markets Boomed in a Year of Human Misery
Replies: 18
Views: 3175

Re: Why Markets Boomed in a Year of Human Misery

It is more like the S&P 6 boomed while the other S&P 494 just tried to hang on for the ride. I think we have a long ways to go before we can really access the impact of 2020. The article seemed logical but if you dive into the details the world is a bit of a scary place right now. I think it...
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Coming up with mortgage down payment
Replies: 74
Views: 4304

Re: Coming up with mortgage down payment

I would go with 1-4-3-2 Kids can fend for themselves and parents don't need to save for their college. I do like the idea of liquidating the Roth IRA only because you can't contribute to the lost years as a backup option. Cashing out on a taxable account for short term capital gains is a no brainer....
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 02, 2021 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford to build an $850,000 house
Replies: 90
Views: 6084

Re: Can we afford to build an $850,000 house

You can easily afford it only because if anything happens you can just use mortgage forbearance. It isn't the best idea to buy a house knowing you might need mortgage forbearance but it is probably the easiest way to buy into that price level of a home.
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 02, 2021 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wait until 70 to take social security?
Replies: 161
Views: 15761

Re: Wait until 70 to take social security?

It is smarter to take social security as soon as possible so you minimize the COLA increases. The less money everyone takes means there is more money for future generations and less funding issues to worry about it. I know it is a bit selfish but it is better to encourage people to take it as soon a...
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will long-term treasuries remain a useful hedge at current interest rates?
Replies: 89
Views: 8243

Re: Will long-term treasuries remain a useful hedge at current interest rates?

My guess is the Japanese government didn't default! The currency didn't do so hot, but that probably doesn't affect domestic investors because they invested globally with mutual funds in the late 80s and early 90s.
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: end auto lease, what would BHers do?
Replies: 34
Views: 2260

Re: end auto lease, what would BHers do?

Are you able to get the lease put into forbearance? It is just an idea.
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tried to Time - lol
Replies: 85
Views: 9525

Re: Tried to Time - lol

People don't understand he was out a few days. The market goes up 1% a day so he lost out on a possible 3% gain. DaveBugey I love questions like this! Don't panic on the next virus variant there will always be another one plus every 6-9 months the economy market gets a boosted invested from fresh ca...
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA for 11-yo w/ ~300$/yr earned income
Replies: 9
Views: 791

Re: Roth IRA for 11-yo w/ ~300$/yr earned income

Any additional income above $400 dollars I would recommend putting into a brokerage account for her. There is nothing more important than teaching our children to daytrade.(That is a joke) She can earn roughly $700 year as a daytrader.(That isn't a joke) She will thank you in twenty years! https://w...
by checkyourmath
Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying vs. Renting Principles
Replies: 228
Views: 17767

Re: Buying vs. Renting Principles

I am extremely bullish on the housing market. I see 2021 bring the year where forbearance numbers exceed the total number of homes sold. Usually annual home sales are in the 5.5ish million range. I think the recent uptick in forbearance numbers to about 5.49% of all mortgages will continue so anothe...
by checkyourmath
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will long-term treasuries remain a useful hedge at current interest rates?
Replies: 89
Views: 8243

Re: Will long-term treasuries remain a useful hedge at current interest rates?

Don't worry about it. Bonds are your best friend! The bonds are backed in the same way as treasuries so you shouldn't really have to think about this.
by checkyourmath
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 234
Views: 24177

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Yeah I am curious about 2021. Once the economy reopens it is going to be the greatest market recovery of all time. The earnings forecast are looking super juicy for 2021. I think as long as we get a little boost every six months everything will play out just right.
by checkyourmath
Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Expected real rate of return
Replies: 134
Views: 6807

Re: Expected real rate of return

Lol I was a math major in college so that puts me in a very finite group of folks. How many math majors do you know? Math majors are usually highly respected folks that don't need to check their math which is why I picked the username. Generally speaking I view myself as a bit of a failure in every ...
by checkyourmath
Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Expected real rate of return
Replies: 134
Views: 6807

Re: Expected real rate of return

I assume for most people going forward 10 to 15 percent. I was crushed this past year with a 0.6% return but I made a huge mistake. I know the future is a lot brighter so will be the earnings. I think as long as we are able to get some type of market help every six months 10 percent is realistic.
by checkyourmath
Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest $200k (from 2.25% cash out refinancing)?
Replies: 192
Views: 10941

Re: How to invest $200k (from 2.25% cash out refinancing)?

I would put it all in the bond market. It is much more stable than the housing market. Taylor has a good point the bond market absolutely crushed it this past year. The future looks super bright for the bond market. I listen to a great talk the other day from a Yale professor on bond price and yield...
by checkyourmath
Fri Dec 25, 2020 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does any follow DXY?
Replies: 1
Views: 356

Does any follow DXY?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-dollar-crash-high-chance-double-dip-recession-roach-2020-9-1029618113 I know this is an old article but I found it interesting. I don't know much about Roach. I don't think we have inflation or deflation quite yet but I do think the dollar will be b...
by checkyourmath
Fri Dec 25, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does my home's equity replace bond investing?
Replies: 56
Views: 3648

Re: Does my home's equity replace bond investing?

Absolutely love this thread. In 2020s going forward it is a bond and don't let anyone persuade you differently. Negative bonds are inevitable please don't pretend you are any different Merica. If you are 99 years old bonds are amazing because 1.25% of anything can feed you for a year. On a standard ...
by checkyourmath
Thu Dec 24, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realizing gains for UTMA/UGMA?
Replies: 14
Views: 855

Re: Realizing gains for UTMA/UGMA?

I just started a brokerage account for our 4 year old twins. I think tax gain harvesting is super rare but genius if you have nothing else to do with the money! I am more into market timing right now so I will probably buy something next year. I know you can't time the market blah blah blah. I think...
by checkyourmath
Wed Dec 23, 2020 12:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do Bogleheads hire Financial Advisors? If so why?
Replies: 86
Views: 6174

Re: Do Bogleheads hire Financial Advisors? If so why?

In ten seconds you should be able to tell me your AA and annual cost. Welcome to 2020! Don't be like everyone else edumudcate yourself. I also recommending doing your own taxes. I absolutely hate doing them because the Free File Program reminds me of Big Tobacco having doctors promote smoking.