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by Marseille07
Fri Sep 22, 2023 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970702

Re: Can someone please summarize HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure?

Let's say you invest in a funny coin in 2013 and it goes up 10,000% Now your portfolio is 98% funny coin, 2% VTI What do you do? Similarly with HFEA, if we started this in the 80s, HFEA would grow to be the majority of your portfolio. So instead of derisking in later years, if you don't rebalance or view it cohesively, you might be running a 2.5x leveraged in to retirement when realistically, if you were viewing it cohesively, you should be trimming down your HFEA so you reduce your leverage ratio in to retirement, or keep it fixed at whatever predetermined leverage ratio you decided on. There's nothing "special" about HFEA. It's a 3x leveraged ~50/50 portfolio. I think it depends on how you treat the funny coin allocation. But l...
by Marseille07
Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Engagmenet in 5 months - prenup questions for newbie
Replies: 105
Views: 11173

Re: Engagmenet in 5 months - prenup questions for newbie

HomerJ wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:32 pm The least amount of divorces (like 15%-20% chance of divorce) were the ones that happened when the people were in their late 20s or early 30s. Education didn't matter that much (although college educated did lower the rates slightly). But high school graduate or college educated, waiting until later in life to get married usually meant a more mature marriage that lasted.
To be fair, even 15~20% isn't low; at least it's not so crazy to prepare for such a possibility.
by Marseille07
Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Engagmenet in 5 months - prenup questions for newbie
Replies: 105
Views: 11173

Re: Engagmenet in 5 months - prenup questions for newbie

Y'all are amazing and great feedback across the board. *Edit to my original post. Another thing I've been thinking about is that she says she wants to be a stay at home mom for 5 years post babies. While I love the idea of that, I also love the idea of catching up on retirement since I just recently started making any real money. I talked to her about this and she is open to the idea of working after the kids it seems, but she is not super happy about it. Has anybody had a partner do something similar? Any major positive/negative takeaways from that experience? This is very common. There isn't much you can do other than giving her 5 years and hope she returns to the workforce. If she doesn't, you will be the sole breadwinner. If you don't ...
by Marseille07
Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Convince A Friend This Annuity is Not Good!
Replies: 121
Views: 10662

Re: Help Me Convince A Friend This Annuity is Not Good!

Johm221122 wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:14 am My comment wasn't towards the OP or his friend.

My comment was 100% stocks suggestion to an individual who wants a SPIA probably isn't good advice because they don't want that risk
The person is not investing for the next 30 or 40 years.

What percentage of people on this forum are going to use 100% S&P 500 in retirement? I would bet not many even though in most time periods it would have been great choice. One big reason is sequence of return risk
I understand. I'm just saying the above poster wasn't suggesting 100% S&P. At least I didn't interpret it as such based on the context of the conversation which is to compare SPIA buying vs holding S&P500.
by Marseille07
Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Convince A Friend This Annuity is Not Good!
Replies: 121
Views: 10662

Re: Help Me Convince A Friend This Annuity is Not Good!

Johm221122 wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:01 am tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑If he gives his money to an insurance company that might not be around next month, they will take his money
Why do you suppose he's giving 100% of his money to purchase SPIA? As I said earlier, that's not possible even if you wanted to.
by Marseille07
Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Convince A Friend This Annuity is Not Good!
Replies: 121
Views: 10662

Re: Help Me Convince A Friend This Annuity is Not Good!

Johm221122 wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:55 am His last sentence which I copied
He would be better of just buying the S&P 500 IMO.
Just buying means only buying?
My interpretation is that they phrased it poorly; they probably meant *holding* X dollars worth of S&P500 than buying X dollars worth of SPIA.
by Marseille07
Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Convince A Friend This Annuity is Not Good!
Replies: 121
Views: 10662

Re: Help Me Convince A Friend This Annuity is Not Good!

Johm221122 wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:36 am Tvubpwcisla


He would be better of just buying the S&P 500 IMO.
I don't see where they mentioned 100% S&P500.
by Marseille07
Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Convince A Friend This Annuity is Not Good!
Replies: 121
Views: 10662

Re: Help Me Convince A Friend This Annuity is Not Good!

Johm221122 wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:13 am But my point was the person is considering a SPIA, suggesting a 100% stock portfolio isn't probably a good suggestion for that individual. Personal finance is personal and I'm guessing that person wants such a large annuity at a young age because they are risk adverse
I don't think anyone suggested a 100% stock portfolio. The above poster simply said, if the insurance company is on shaky ground then they might want to forgo SPIA and just keep invested in the S&P500 however much they prefer to invest.

In fact you can't dump 100% of your assets into SPIA anyway, thus comparing SPIA to 100% S&P500 misses the mark in my opinion.
by Marseille07
Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Convince A Friend This Annuity is Not Good!
Replies: 121
Views: 10662

Re: Help Me Convince A Friend This Annuity is Not Good!

Johm221122 wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 9:46 am The person is not investing for the next 30 or 40 years.

What percentage of people on this forum are going to use 100% S&P 500 in retirement? I would bet not many even though in most time periods it would have been great choice. One big reason is sequence of return risk
I don't think anyone would go 100% in retirement, but something like 80~90% equities would not be a crazy idea in my opinion.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Engagmenet in 5 months - prenup questions for newbie
Replies: 105
Views: 11173

Re: Engagmenet in 5 months - prenup questions for newbie

logiclife wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:07 pm I never understood this prenup stuff. Feels very transactional to me....why bother saying till death do us.....and put a disclaimer with prenup
What disclaimer is being placed by a prenup? Till death do us remains true while married with or without a prenup, no?
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

muffins14 wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:27 pm If an SCV fund has 1000 stocks and a market beta of 1.0, does that approximate the haystack?
Imo no. That's like betting on one student out of 30 who happened to get the average score last time.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:35 pm Market capitalization isn't the definition of diversification. You can look at the long term performance of SCV vs. Market funds and see that there's some degree of correlation but wider dispersions during different market regimes. It's still highly exposed to the overall market conditions. It's represented in all industries, even if the constituents differ from MCW in their exposures.
Right. The fact that you noted different performance characteristics means SCV isn't a haystack.

I'm not trying to stop you from investing in SCV, just saying what it isn't.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:28 pm SCV is a haystack. It's just a haystack that's selecting for the universe of riskier stocks with higher discount rates and higher expected returns. There's more companies in my value funds than my MCW funds. We're talking thousands of companies. Plenty enough to diversify away idiosyncratic risk.

I'm not concerned either way. I'll end up underperforming plenty of more "optimal" portfolios in hindsight, but historically my own portfolio suits my tastes, risk tolerance, and long term investment objectives.
I'm not talking idiosyncratic risk. I'm talking about the size of factor within TSM, which I believe is something like 4%. In other words, that 4% might move very differently than the other 96%.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:18 pm My "thesis" is that international companies are worth investing in regardless of whether they are over/undervalued on some metric because you will never know precisely how the sequence of returns will play out. I don't think it's wise to completely avoid them just because in the 80s you saw the valuations creep higher. You could tilt towards US market in that scenario, but I don't believe in completely abandoning huge markets regardless of what the valuations are.
I mean do whatever you like. As mentioned, we just need to invest in at least one haystack.

I'd be more cautious with SCV than ex-US to be honest. Ex-US captures haystacks, SCV does not.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 8:15 pm You’re right, they’re not, that’s why they apply a higher discount rate to slower growing companies

Otherwise there’d be no reason to own the 493 “stupid” stocks in the index
Why do you keep going in another direction? Your thesis is that somehow international companies are undervalued. This has nothing to do with S&P493.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 7:11 pm Investors prefer to make a return on their investment for the price being paid. If a stagnant company is undervalued that is preferable to a fast growing company with too high of a price relative to it's higher growth prospects.

it's not an either or situation.
:oops: Investors aren't stupid. They are staying away from it because it is stagnant. That's not undervalued.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 6:48 pm Not true. 0% earnings growth doesn't mean 0 earnings
It doesn't, but that's not really the point. The point is investors prefer growing companies than stagnant companies with higher dividends.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Beensabu wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 5:38 pm Maybe the dividend yield available with exUS just isn't high enough yet to have appeal for US-tilters?
Dividends aren't that great because they hurt the bottom line.

Imagine two companies:
a) 10% earnings growth, 0% dividends
b) 0% earnings growth, 10% dividends

You pocket the same return short-term, but eventually company B goes out of business whereas company A keeps thriving.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:28 am I am a value investor at heart, but understand the need for diversification
You haven't explained the need for diversification because we just agreed everything was highly valued in 2000. So far I'm just hearing value-investing side of business not diversification benefits.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

CraigTester wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:17 am You have done a masterful job of market timing over the last 10 years, by overweighting US.....
You still don't understand passive investing. The min requirement is to own at least one haystack, which most people here do.

If HomerJ's 80% US 20% ex-US was market timing, the only non-timing move would be WCW at all times. You can delete everything except WCW from your list of arguments, since everything else is timing according to your perspective.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:55 am I misunderstood what you were asking. Valuations were universally high in 2000 even for a global investor

The only alternative that did well was Value. That’s why I personally choose to not only globally diversify, but also have a high allocation to value stocks
You're just a valuehead then. Value is always cheaper than the rest because effectively you sort equities by PE and buy the lowest PE ones.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:45 am ?

That’s not what I claimed at all.

It was a response to someone suggesting valuations trending higher and mean reverting higher after a crash is to be expected. That happened for the US, it didn’t happen for those other countries
I don't know who someone is but yesterday you mentioned US CAPE was 45X in 2000 and went onto argue the subsequent 23 years went 6.9% than 10% nominal.

So I asked you what would your alternatives have been and you responded by listing countries where the CAPE was 50X~70X in 2000.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

The alternative is any country (Japan, Sweden, China, France, Italy, you name it) that was at once high flying with CAPE and has not seen any sort of near V-shaped recovery to previously high valuations. Using which instruments? I don't believe you hold any of MSCI's country specific ETFs. I don't find it believable you would have purchased Japan, Sweden, China, France and Italy in 2000. Besides, how would you have chosen even higher CAPE than the US? https://i.imgur.com/bKTDJy7.png Your claim is beyond absurd. Isn’t this exactly their point? That high starting CAPE contributed to their low returns over 2000-2023? Well sure, but their point was USA was massively expensive at 45X CAPE in 2000 right? It defies logic if they turn around and a...
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Engagmenet in 5 months - prenup questions for newbie
Replies: 105
Views: 11173

Re: Engagmenet in 5 months - prenup questions for newbie

The California default is that the property you bring into marriage and gifts/inheritances you receive during the marriage are considered your separate property so long as you don't commingle with community property (i.e., property earned during the course of the marriage). Your earnings on separate property also remain separate. So if you don't opt for a prenup, then make sure you keep your accounts separate. We did do a prenup since my earnings were 8x higher and my net worth was 10x higher. We mostly stayed with the CA default, but made exceptions like: - Treated retirement accounts as separate property, but stated that we would contribute equally to the extent we were allowed. - Had some provisions dealing with financial assistance to ...
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 12:19 am The alternative is any country (Japan, Sweden, China, France, Italy, you name it) that was at once high flying with CAPE and has not seen any sort of near V-shaped recovery to previously high valuations.
Using which instruments? I don't believe you hold any of MSCI's country specific ETFs. I don't find it believable you would have purchased Japan, Sweden, China, France and Italy in 2000.

Besides, how would you have chosen even higher CAPE than the US?
Image

Your claim is beyond absurd.
by Marseille07
Thu Sep 07, 2023 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 12:05 am I am right looking back - in 2000 CAPE was 45, and that resulted in 6.9% returns over the ensuing 23 years instead of the historical level of 10.44% since 1972. A dramatic difference cut substantially smaller due to high valuations. And that was a GOOD OUTCOME from a starting point of high valuations. A more normal outcome where valuations revert more sharply would further amplify the haircut taken to investor returns.
Then suggest an alternative and see how it fared between 2000~2023.
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash is a terrible long-term investment
Replies: 369
Views: 39706

Re: Cash is a terrible long-term investment

Call_Me_Op wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 3:47 pm My point is that the drop was proportional to duration - regardless of whether they were using a fund or individual issues.
Right, but as I said, the recovery is different. Psychologically you feel better knowing all you have to do is to hold bonds till maturity. Also, you don't have to roll after maturity - you have an option at that point. Bond funds don't give you that recovery visibility or such an option.

There's no question in my mind that more Total Bond holders panicked in 2022 than the individual bondholders of the same duration.
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash is a terrible long-term investment
Replies: 369
Views: 39706

Re: Cash is a terrible long-term investment

anagram wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 2:55 pm Thank you for understanding what I am disagreeing with.

I thought I was specific in explaining. I also disagree with "I would not say "collectively" but certainly many inexperienced folks."

I think it is rather odd for Call_Me_Op to tell me I am upset and what I am upset about, when he does not know me. Such is life.
No problem. I agree with your "collectively" comment, and the truth is that not all recommendations are sound, and we need to evaluate them carefully.
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

I wonder about the currency change argument: All/most of the multinational companies have a substantial part of the revenues / expenses in currencies other than their home currency. So many US multinationals will have revenues / expenses in EUR, JPY, GBP etc and the other way around. That means that a strenghtening USD will weaken the reported earnings by US companies and strenghten the Non-US company earnings. So we can't just take the full currency change as a factor to explain the performance difference, a portion of that is already included in earnings. Yeah that's a very good point. Then "earnings growth + dividends" wasn't 8.9% vs 8.3% after all, could be like 10% vs 7% if we roll the currency change component into earnings...
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash is a terrible long-term investment
Replies: 369
Views: 39706

Re: Cash is a terrible long-term investment

Call_Me_Op wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 2:56 pm Sure - if guaranteed recovery is your only goal. But your return (over time) may be lower in the individual bond scenario. You would be allowing your bonds to mature (as you implied in your scenario) and will hold more and more cash over time (or spend the money). If instead you decide to roll the bonds as they mature, you are in exactly the same boat as the bond fund.
That's a fair & good point.
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash is a terrible long-term investment
Replies: 369
Views: 39706

Re: Cash is a terrible long-term investment

Call_Me_Op wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 2:29 pm I disagree with your disagreement. If you held individual bonds having the same average duration as Total Bond in 2022, they would have gone down by the same amount as Total Bond. Please be specific about what you are disagreeing with.
While this might be true on the way down, the recovery speed would be different because Total Bond would not hold any bonds till maturity. It can take Total Bond longer to recover, as oft-cited "2d - 1" formula would indicate the worst case should the yields continue rising.

Holding bonds directly would ensure 1d recovery time.
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 12:58 pm That we have 120 year investment horizons and that the shorter term horizons are meaningless
Who said that? So if we instead look at 1970~2023 that means you have 53 year investment horizons? Your statement defies logic.
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

CraigTester wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 12:02 pm Hypothesis: "The below chart (frequently circulated on BH) has created a false conclusion"
False conclusion in what sense? I don't even understand what conclusion is allegedly false.
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970702

Re: Can someone please summarize HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure?

At time X you decide that the rational thing to do for your objectives and risk tolerance is to put 5% into HFEA. Additional stock and bond exposure is a rational thing to do for a young person with high risk tolerance and job security. Now let's say it drops 90%. If we do nothing we are making the decision to no longer have significant additional stock and bond exposure. Hypothetically nothing has changed since time X. Our net worth, income, job security, age, risk tolerance and all possible factors that should rationally affect asset allocation are all unchanged. The only thing that has changed is the path we took to get here which is a sunk cost and should not rationally affect investment decisions. Asset allocation is and should be vie...
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970702

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Well, there's not much more to talk about once you've fully committed to a strategy! Besides, there's a lot more talk of emotions and a lot less talk of ideas around here these days. As far as interesting and constructive discussion goes, most of what can be said has been said. Aside from my shift to 30/30/40 UPRO/UMDD/TMF a couple years ago, I'm still all-in, making additional contributions, and rebalancing quarterly. It's been a rough ride, but it's not like we've somehow escaped the distribution of reasonably predicted outcomes (at least by my models). Leverage, like base jumping and motorbike racing, requires uncommonly high risk tolerance, but it's far from a death sentence. That said, you should think long and hard about the risk you...
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

I’m just saying one average number over a very long timescale likely masks a lot of nuance. I don’t think that statement is very controversial. It’s likewise not constructive to shoot down another poster’s assertion by “barking” out with a single datapoint in an effort to refute them, rather than asking an open ended question or being open minded to various other metrics or measurements If you want a concrete suggestion: maybe some simulated portfolios of what happens during retirement drawdowns over a 30 year span. Compare 100% Canada vs a diversified mix over different timeframes. Perhaps focus more on the last 50-75 years, too I was just asking the above poster what made them state "a Canadian that passively invests 100% in Canadia...
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

muffins14 wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:08 am I assume 1 graph from 1900-2000 isn’t a complete picture here. Most of us won’t lump sum in 1900 and spend in 2000
First of all it is 2020 not 2000. Second, what do you suggest we look at for Canadian performance history then? It is not constructive to bark at data without providing alternatives, unless your suggestion is to just throw darts without looking at data at all.
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

But you are saying it is "enough" hay for your needs and you expect that it will continue to be enough for the foreseeable future (ok, fine). Many others are also pointing out the special properties of the US that make its hay particularly attractive in relation to foreign hay, whether you take that view or not. Nathan Drake is also trying to argue that a bundle of certain needles within some of the haystacks should be given "special reserve" status and given enough time to age properly, so that it can contribute some additional beneficial flavor to our haystacks. That's not really an argument that belongs in a discussion about the merits of US vs. Foreign hay, but rather an argument that the hay could benefit from some...
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

There's plenty of "passive" investments that are still not reasonable investments. If you live in Belgium and invest 100% in a Belgium index, that may be passive but it'd be pretty dumb. Some countries are big enough and diversified enough that it looks slightly less dumb. The US is the only one where the argument of investing solely in that one country being reasonable could even be said with a straight face, due to it being more than half of global market cap. A Canadian that passively invests 100% in Canadian stocks is making a big mistake, as shown by performance history, overexposure to the resource sector, exposure to only a tiny fraction of global market cap, extreme uncompensated risk exposure to a few geopolitical risk f...
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

hornet96 wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 7:26 am It seems like this subject can be boiled down to this:

US Only: The US produces the highest quality hay in the world in significant quantities, and is in a unique position to continue doing so. I already have all the hay I could ever really need.

Pro International: We have no way of knowing when we might just need the hay from other countries, so we better own some just in case.

End of thread.

:beer
We aren't saying the US is the highest quality hay. It just checks all the boxes for passive investing. Ex-US also checks all the boxes, so do whatever you like. Personal finance is personal.
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alternatives to Chase traditional savings accounts for “Emergency Funds”
Replies: 50
Views: 4526

Re: Alternatives to Chase traditional savings accounts for “Emergency Funds”

bucky6225 wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 10:17 am Do others view emergency funds as money that should be in something like a money market getting a better yield, or do you just accept that as emergency funds a traditional savings account is appropriate and won’t offer an attractive yield?
Your framing is incorrect. The correct answer is to find an HYSA that offers an attractive yield. Such a product exists today.
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

DonIce wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 12:30 am Yeah this claim is confirmed pretty well by how closely DIA (30 stocks) tracks the US total stock market, for example.
If you think 30 is enough, go for it. I'm merely suggesting 100 as an opinion. I didn't say you must hold 100+ or else.
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

I was just trying to understand the logic of your haystack construct. So what in particular is special about a country to make it a haystack? Can an index with 100 securities be a haystack? Or only a country? The country separation is important because each market is governed by different laws, regulations, currencies and domestic investors. The Chinese market is obviously very different than the rest of the world, for example. I guess the Eurozone is a bit fuzzy in this regard because they might share some laws, regulations and currency. So no, 100 securities across multiple markets won't be a haystack in my view. And if you remember, another thing I mentioned is to capture 80%+ of the domestic market (like S&P500). I don't see how yo...
by Marseille07
Wed Sep 06, 2023 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

I’m just trying to understand your different perspective, which seemed to be a country market is a haystack, unless there are different parameters / constraints that I am unaware of. Is there a minimum size of a country market cap to qualify as a haystack? Is the US the only country that qualifies as a haystack due to its outsize share of world market cap? In the early 90s when Japan was nearly 40% world market cap was it a haystack? When it collapsed and its share became diminished was it demoted from its official status of a haystack? Is there a home country exception for haystacks, such that it is only a haystack if it is your home country? Just trying to flesh this out. The size actually doesn't matter unless you're a billionaire choos...
by Marseille07
Tue Sep 05, 2023 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 11:54 pm Investing can be both simple and produce a poor outcome. Same reasons used to justify a single haystack extend to the actual entire haystack
Of course. Not all haystacks are equal, and we have to accept that your haystacks of choice might trail.
by Marseille07
Tue Sep 05, 2023 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

JBTX wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 11:48 pm So the official definition of haystack is based upon country of company domicile? So ex U.S. is really probably 20 or 30 different haystacks?
I'm not defining the official definition, I'm just sharing my perspective outside of this "VT is the only haystack" idea. I'd appreciate if you could understand different perspectives than your own.

Also, were you able to find out how much of US TSM QQQ captures? I'm kind of curious myself if you care to find that out.
by Marseille07
Tue Sep 05, 2023 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 11:47 pm :oops:

So literally no other thought went into this other than US TSM is “good enough”? You’re completely indifferent to everything else as a result, and are happy with the possibility of going decades without a positive real return because you met your minimum requirement for investing?

To each their own, that’s a very odd take
Yes? Haven't you heard of this saying "investing is simple, but not easy." He was speaking about folks like you who can't strike a simple plan to follow.
by Marseille07
Tue Sep 05, 2023 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

JBTX wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 11:42 pm So is QQQ a haystack?
Does it capture 80%+ of US TSM? (I don't know the answer to it)
by Marseille07
Tue Sep 05, 2023 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 11:35 pm That’s not a justification. I can’t get a straight answer from you at all, nothing but tangents, straw man’s, and red herrings as far as the eye can see

I know there are multiple ways to invest passively, why do you choose to exclude foreign markets if not for performance chasing?
:oops: Your inability to interpret a straight answer turns you into another direction.

I said one haystack is the minimum requirement to invest passively. I meet the requirement. That's all there is to it really.
by Marseille07
Tue Sep 05, 2023 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5215
Views: 830116

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 11:18 pm Why are you arguing in favor of it’s performance to exclusion of the rest of the market?

I too invest in the US due to its own performance, as I also do exUS markets
Good for you. You own multiple haystacks. I only own one, but one still suffices the requirement. There are different ways to invest passively.